Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/24/13

9:01
Comment From Dave
Do you hate your boss for making your work today? Do you wish he’d tell you to just bag it and go do something else instead?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t make me work today! I’m doing this of my own volition, but I figure I’ll only chat for an hour or so before doing something else with or near the family

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: But that depends on the audience. If everybody’s otherwise occupied, I’ll get rid of this and no one will ever know it attempted to happen!

9:03
Comment From Evan
Where does Balfour go now? Crain?

9:03
Comment From Sam
Do you think the Rays are favorites to land Balfour at this point?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Balfour’s going to be an interesting one — the Rays will be in there provided his price is lower than it was, but if the Mariners get somewhat bold or miss out on other targets they’ve been asking about a veteran closer type and Balfour could now cost a lot less than Rodney

9:04
Comment From Guest
If no other team steps up, any chance the Mets swoop in and sign Drew about a month from now?

9:05
Comment From Guest
Where do you think Stephen Drew ends up? And for what?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: This one is so tricky. I’ve been meaning to write about Drew for some time but he’s not the only guy on the market who’s playing the part of the new Kyle Lohse. I just keep thinking Mets and off the top of my head I’d say something like $20m/2yr but his market is only a little more open than Kendrys Morales’ and Morales’ market is depressing

9:06
Comment From Bruce
Whats this? A present for us Jews?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: A present for all people, some of whom are Jewish

9:07
Comment From Tap Rat
I’ve noticed that in your writing, you’ve seemingly become less and less willing to reach absolute conclusions. You are willing to see most plays, and most transactions from both sides. I’ve noticed you give the benefit of the doubt to front offices, who you sometimes note are probably at least as informed and intelligent as the lot of us. You make wonderful observations from unique perspectives, but you are very careful in parsing those observations. You seem to be getting further and further into the grey. I love your writing, for what that’s worth, but I wonder: are you have an existential crisis in your relationship with baseball?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it comes and goes, and sometimes it’s just about writing with a little nuance given how many sides there are to literally everything. But I am afraid we’ll reach a point of borderline irrelevance, where the teams are so much better informed that we won’t be able to say much of anything meaningful. How quickly will our analysis develop, relative to that of the teams making the decisions? It’s an easy sport to write about until it becomes a difficult sport to write about, and then once it’s difficult, it’s almost always difficult

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not difficult if some team signs Nelson Cruz for $75m/5yr. That would just be moronic

9:09
Comment From Desperate Mariner
Are Corey Hart and Nelson Cruz really incapable of playing a full season of outfield? Does that offensive combo make up for the defense?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: No, they can handle it, they’d just be comfortably below-average. Hart’s coming off double knee surgery and Cruz looks to the eye like a complete disaster. And no, they don’t hit well enough to justify that kind of defensive sacrifice

9:12
Comment From Cano
Gimme the NL playoff teams in 2014

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Braves!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates!

9:14
Comment From Sean
what was your favorite Christmas gift of all time?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: When I was a kid in San Diego I got a chance to fly to Arizona and see Randy Johnson face the Cardinals in his first home start of 2001. Randy Johnson was and is my favorite pitcher ever so that was pretty special, even if it might not be my actual favorite ever

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Randy got destroyed and he lost to Rick Ankiel

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: In that game I was introduced to the existence of one Albert Pujols

9:17
Comment From Terry
Is Arenando really a top 3 Defensive 3B in NL going forward?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe top 1! If Juan Uribe doesn’t go crazy again

9:17
Comment From Rob G
Where does Tanaka land? NYY? Texas? Seattle?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Yankees, if anywhere

9:17
Comment From LarryA
Dont most teams, like the rays have better in-house options than grant Balfour?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not better — Balfour’s good — and it’s not like every team only needs one relief pitcher in the bullpen

9:18
Comment From David
What pitching stat do you look at the most? Is SIERA something you use?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: FIP-/xFIP-. never used SIERA once, don’t know the point of it

9:18
Comment From Bruce
Has there been studies that look into whether “less-desireable” teams have to pay more for free agents than other teams?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know of a bigger study but I feel pretty confident in asserting that it’s usually just money that makes the difference. If you go by WAR/$ you probably won’t find much of an inequality. Obviously, there are always exceptions, since free agency is a case-by-case basis

9:20
Comment From Greyson
Which legitimately in contention team has has the worst offseason? I’d love to say the Tigers, but the Orioles could claim it too.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles’ offseason is seriously bumming me out

9:20
Comment From Todd
Which team has improved the most so far this off-season?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly probably the Mariners just because of the Cano signing. But there’s a lot of offseason left

9:21
Comment From Cowboy Roy
How much do you enjoy hypothetical scenario baseball questions?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how rushed I’m feeling but I’m usually game

9:22
Comment From Slug
What do you think of the Braves’ offseason?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I must’ve missed it. When did that happen?

9:22
Comment From Mark
Will the Royals add a starter to slot in between Shields and Guthrie?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re out of money, more or less. Going to be counting on some youth to fill in the gaps

9:22
Comment From Uncle Tio
Do the Rangers need to find a solid DH now (such as Morales) to solidify the lineup or do they roll with a Moreland plus a RH platoon partner?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: They already traded Ian Kinsler for a DH, they’re just going to use him as a first baseman. I suspect they’ll go forward with Moreland and they’ll cycle a few other guys through when Moreland’s off or playing another position

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll get some kind of bench guy in the next month or two

9:25
Comment From Jon Daniels
How soon will I regret having Choo/Fielder on my payroll?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Offseason after next

9:25
Comment From Conrad
One last move for the Mariners?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make more than one move, but they want a starting pitcher and right now that market is stuck in traffic

9:25
Comment From Desperate Mariner
Is there any chance that one of the Domestic Three sign for 2 or 3 years as opposed to 4 or 5?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I could see Jimenez settling for three, given his own unreliability. Realistically Santana should probably get three as well but someone will give him more than that

9:27
Comment From LarryA
How exactly did Edwin Encarnacion “put it all together” a few years ago?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: It’s just better selectivity, really, but Encarnacion is so easy to forget when you’re talking about the best hitters in baseball

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: You look at him and you’d never think “that guy walks more than he strikes out”

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: He’s amazing! Nobody cares!

9:28
Comment From Cowboy Roy
Have the Rangers done enough so far this off season to reclaim the AL West from the A’s?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I think they have a very slight advantage, although the A’s have incredible depth. Off the top of my head I’d say Rangers 32%, A’s 28%, Angels 25%, Mariners 15%, Astros participation award

9:30
Comment From Guest
If Tanaka is posted what kind of contract do you see him signing for being that Darvish signed for 6/$56?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: 6/$110

9:31
Comment From James
You mention Morales. Any chance he doesn’t sign till after the draft? Ok there is a chance but is it a plausible chance?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I think ultimately the Orioles cave and sign Morales just to do something

9:31
Comment From AJ
Thanks for your article about Shin-Soo Choo’s splits. Clearly the splits are less exploitable than previously thought — but were you surprised by how little it was? Do you think a smart team could do a better job exploiting it? Also, I wonder how changes in bullpen/pitcher usage has affected it, or will affect it going forward

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I was surprised — communicating with Dave during the process, we both figured it would be more exploitable, but for whatever reasons it just isn’t. I think right-handed closers are a big factor, and teams just aren’t going to pull their closers because a lefty is at the plate. Not during this lifetime. It all basically comes down to “Choo might have troubles batting in the eighth”

9:33
Comment From Paddy OSullivan and the Portlandians
Do you ever read LL, or would that be like stalking the Facebook page of an ex you broke up with

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really have a reason to read Mariners blogs

9:33
Comment From chris
How do you like the Mets chances to trade Ike? I’ve wondered if they will just sit on him if they can’t get Segura from the Brewers.. honestly think its right move when you look at his career compared to Chris Davis/Jose Bautista etc.. what do you think can he break out in his late 20’s?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Segura??

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think a problem is that the Mets simultaneously see a talented player and a player they don’t want anymore

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: And they’re having trouble finding a match with the Brewers, and there isn’t a big 1B market out there anymore

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Forced to guess I’d say the Mets eventually relent and trade Davis to the Brewers for less than they’ve wanted

9:36
Comment From Brandon
How big of a disadvantage do you think teams having hitf/x data puts us at?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Slight, but (A) I don’t think it changes everything, and (B) there are teams that hardly even put it to use. Many of the conclusions, we probably already know, or could guess

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Man, though, I want to know which pitchers allow harder and less hard contact

9:36
Comment From SMC
Isn’t it an assumption that teams are more informed? Assuming (yes, an assumption) arguendo that the Geoff Baker story is true, for example, is it not at least arguable that teams are not more informed, or at least sabermetrics is advancing at a faster rate than front office knowledge and so will, at some point, catch up?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Well, for one thing, the Mariners are a lot more informed than we are in other ways. Baseball’s got a lot more going on than just sabermetrics

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: And, over time, every team will trend toward being as smart as it can be, and they’re just going to get data packages that won’t be available for the public consumption. PITCHf/x is great and free. The rest of it isn’t and won’t be

9:39
Comment From SMC
No love for the 2014 Reds?

9:39
Comment From Walt J.
Jeff, I’m very concerned about my Reds. What can I do? Any trades out there?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: This is why no love. The general manager is asking me for tips the day before Christmas

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s a fine team, and a team that isn’t quite good enough as it stands. It’s also not an easy team to tweak, given restrictions

9:40
Comment From NIck
Is Arroyo enough of an upgrade for the Nationals’ 5th spot that they should take a look at signing him?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, take a look, why not. I can’t get a read on his market and he might end up cheap

9:42
Comment From LarryA
Does Kurt Suzuki travel from team to team with the sole purpose of blocking young catching prospects?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s kind of an ass

9:43
Comment From Andrew
How about the AL?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: This is about AL playoff teams, so:

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Rangers!

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers!

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox!

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Rays!

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: A’s!

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Exchange Yankees for Rays in event of Tanaka

9:43
Comment From Prich
Making you work today: Dave never told us his parents were Scrooge and The Wicked Witch of the West…

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Dave was basically like “do what you want” and I’m a creature of habit and I had an hour or so to kill before I can watch Breaking Bad episodes with my stepdad who’s watching for the first time

9:44
Comment From Nick
Is .260/.350/.460 realistic for a full season of Matt Davidson?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s call it, say, an 80-percentile PECOTA

9:45
Comment From Rays 7th Infielder
Why do the Rays’ and A’s approaches work so well during the regular season, but almost always flame out come playoff time? Is the postseason more or less a toss-up because all of the participants are so easily matched?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Honest answer is the obvious, cliche answer: there’s so much noise in the playoffs we can’t arrive at truly meaningful conclusions

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to overlook the A’s recent history but unless someone presents a viable theory as to why they lose in October I’m just comfortable assuming there’s nothing to it but unhappy chance

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: The odds are always far greater that you’re going to lose in the postseason than advance

9:46
Comment From Matt
Are you surprised that someone hasn’t snapped up Jason Hammel yet? What are your thoughts on him, going forward?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: He’s coming off a bad year with an injury and the last I saw he was looking for 3 or 4 years

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Like the rest of the pitchers, he’s going to have to wait for Tanaka to get resolved

9:47
Comment From Aidan
Are the Royals actual contenders or just the lukewarm spoilers they were last year? By extension, how close is the Central/WC?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: They might be like the 7th-best team in the AL or so, which puts them close enough to the race. They’ll play meaningful baseball again for a while. The WC is very close, as it will always be, and the Central is probably still Tigers by a handful of games

9:48
Comment From Baseball is the worlds sport
Do you think Tanaka will be posted by Christmas?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Decision’s supposed to be today or tomorrow, right?

9:48
Comment From Tim
What do you think about Billy Hamilton starting next year?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s not a good position for a contending team to be in

9:49
Comment From Guest
what do you suggest a jewish person does on christmas?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: go for a hike

9:49
Comment From LarryA
Do things like the Mariners signing Robbie Canos useless minor-leaguer cousin happen all the time, and we just dont hear about it?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t happen *all the time* but they can be neat perks. The Mariners have also had Felix’s lousy older brother for some time now

9:50
Comment From T
On your last article, how did you set 1,500 PAs total, with 750 against lefties and 750 against righties?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: It was all manual. I pulled the split minimums, then I went to overall leaderboards, then I messed around with VLOOKUPs

9:50
Comment From Ms sympo
What offer you will make to Tanaka as Seattle GM if available?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: $120m/6yr. What the hell, why not

9:50
Comment From SMC
Does anyone really believe Juan Uribe will repeat 2013?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: No, but he’s not being paid to do that

9:51
Comment From Brian Hennessy
Over/Under Xander Bogaerts WAR at 3.5 for next year?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Under

9:51
Comment From Spencer
So you think that if Tanaka is posted the Yankees scrap plan 189?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: They’re already so close at this point. I don’t know quite what they’re doing but I think they’d go over for Tanaka

9:51
Comment From Guest
whats wrong with siera?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, I don’t know anything about it. I just don’t see the point in another estimator when we already have what we have

9:52
Comment From Ryno
If you are M’s GM, who do you add to the 25 man roster?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: An outfielder, a starter, and a catcher, and I subtract a first baseman

9:52
Comment From Brandon
re: SIERA–It’s good when you have small sample sizes (about 50 IP).

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing’s good when you have small sample sizes

9:53
Comment From Mission Jetty
Looking back, what do you now think of the Cashner-Rizzo trade?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Still good for the Cubs. Young position player for older pitcher?

9:53
Comment From Harponeiratera
if you could watch any of the following ABs, which one would it be?: Walter Johnson vs Babe; Feller vs DiMaggio; Koufax vs Mays; or Unit vs Bonds?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: oh sweet baby jesus christ

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Gut tells me Johnson/Babe, recency bias tells me Unit/Bonds. I’d at least be able to put the latter in some kind of context

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: But I want the former in HD, and I want it to go 15 pitches

9:55
Comment From Juicy-Bones Phil
I know long term deals rarely work out. I am also well versed in the aging curve argument. It seems to me like every move a front office makes that isn’t the Beane-esque platoon player trade or mid-range starter signing is bashed by yourself and Dave Cameron. Is there ever going to be a point where we understand that a bunch of money and years are going to be given to ageing free agents and move towards critiquing the player that money/years goes to instead of what a bad deal it was? For example, the Rangers aquiring of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo has been wholeheartedly bashed by you guys, but they seem to be the type of players that analytically minded guys like yourself and Dave Cameron promote, they now are being paid for it. Why criticize the deal when the deal when to the players that deserve it?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Prince Fielder is a FanGraphs kind of player

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: We’re down on super long-term contracts because super long-term contracts are almost always a bad idea. Smart teams seldom even get involved, except for particular cases. Look at what the Cardinals did this offseason. It’s almost perfect. Guys who get big contracts are good players, but good players are fleeting and there are almost always preferable alternatives requiring lesser commitments

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, I’m liking the long-term Tulowitzki extension

9:58
Comment From Marcus A.
Who is Nick Franklin going to be traded for? He’s still going to get traded eventually, right?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Sense I’m getting is he’ll be traded for a starter pitcher who isn’t good enough to justify the exchange

9:58
Comment From GentleJ
Over/under 101 games that Alex Rodriguez is suspended?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Under and I completely forgot that’s even happening

9:58
Comment From Nick
Are the White Sox realistic playoff contenders in 2015?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:59
Comment From John
In your opinion, which player looks the most like Santa?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Johan Santa

9:59
Comment From Mission Jetty
Most powerful team in baseball right now? still the yankees?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: What does powerful mean?

9:59
Comment From Tom
Your thoughts, if any, on Harry Pavlidis’ recently published pitch framing numbers?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen them yet

9:59
Comment From Andrew
What’s your go-to offensive stat?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: wRC+

9:59
Comment From Danny Salazar
My 2013 was remarkably similar to Matt Harvey’s 2012. Big things from me next year?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty damn big things

9:59
Comment From eatmoresalmon
Does a Nick Franklin for Colby Rasmus deal make sense? I just can’t see Ackley in CF.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Franklin should be dealt for a guy on one year unless that guy is really great

10:00
Comment From Adam
I rarely can participate in your chats. Now I can and I cannot think of a question.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Is this a win or a loss for you?

10:00
Comment From Boston Phan
It seems like most fans think “smarter” front offices target “dumber” ones. Do front offices really behave that way? Or is there a constant, sophisticated poker game always being played out where everyone loses and wins sometimes?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone does win and lose sometimes, but there are teams out there who light up when they realize certain other teams are in positions of need

10:01
Comment From Harry
What is the greatest book you have ever read?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: probably The Art Of Fielding

10:01
Comment From Marcus A.
Are you getting tired of all the Mariners’ conflicting rumors or choosing to ignore them for the most part?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I like that they’re being talked about but most of the stuff out there is crap. In some cases, also, I know better

10:02
Comment From Nick
Is this Robin Venutra’s last season as the White Sox manager? Do you think he wants to come back? Do you think Rick Hahn wants him to come back?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s getting dropped in the middle of that multiyear organizational process

10:03
Comment From Marcus A.
Do you think next year we’ll finally see someone accept the QO? It seems like Drew and Morales might have been better off doing so this year.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know who’s going to be eligible yet but I imagine people are learning some lessons from current examples

10:03
Comment From Guest
Not a question, but the AL West is like spectacularly more interesting this year than any division in baseball. Even though Astros won’t compete their moves for a rebuild are still compelling

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Wrong year for the Mariners to be going for it. I think the Astros could conceivably end up with as many as 70 wins

10:04
Comment From Guest
Yoenis Cespedes. What the hell do I expect from him next year? I can’t decide if he’s ever going to realize the potential of his tools.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Dingers, strikeouts, and injury scares. He’s probably going to be pretty good and also disappointing for a while. His tools are so obvious that people are going to want greatness

10:05
Comment From SMC
What happens to the SP market if the Golden Eagles take until February 1 to post Tanaka?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: absolute hilarity

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: But someone would break. There would be movement. Garza, perhaps, first.

10:05
Comment From Tom
How high of a GB% would a pitcher have to have for it to make sense for his defense to play with 5 infielders?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure there’s an actual number but probably something Ziegler-esque. Maybe higher. The cost of an uncaught ball in play in the outfield is pretty significant

10:06
Comment From Billy Jim Beame
Do you foresee a lifelong career in baseball-writing, or will you eventually have to return to a life of crime

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Who’s to say I ever stopped?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: It’s impossible to tell where to go from here. What the hell is internet baseball writing going to be in five years? 20 years? Can’t realistically make career plans in this field as a 20-something year old

10:07
Comment From Joe
The Indians snuck into the wildcard last year. I know the resources are scarce, but will there be more moves to get better?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Low-key stuff. Maybe they end up with Jimenez back. They’ll be on the fringes of the race, like the Royals, again

10:07
Comment From Bill
who is he most underrated position player in your opinion?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Josh Donaldson

10:07
Comment From Tanner
on a scale of 1 to 10 how pissed would you be if taijuan walker got traded

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: “Pissed” is strong but I’d be way up there on the disappointment scale

10:08
Comment From Guest
how good of a deal does the Hunter Pence signing seem in retrospect?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Better, not good

10:08
Comment From Tough actin Tanaka
Am I coming to the U.S.?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah

10:08
Comment From Percy
any way Kershaw is north of 10/300?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

10:08
Comment From Stevo
$6/110?!? Seriously? Is he going to be THAT better then Yu?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Teams will end up paying a similar amount. It’s just that posting fee money will become contract money instead

10:09
Comment From Tanner
do you think its a good idea to go into the year with both walker and paxton in the rotation for the mariners?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sure

10:09
Comment From Orioles Ghost
How many games with Brian Roberts actually play? Will he be any good?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: 80 or so and he’ll be okay

10:10
Comment From Bruce
Im getting bored of this offseason. Who are the best FAs for next offseason?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Next offseason is super ugly. You’re going to want to come back to this offseason

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Also, it’s Christmastime

10:10
Comment From Percy
Are there any teams other than the Dodgers with a surplus of OF? as tradeable commodities that is…

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: The Padres have a bunch but they’re all way lower-profile

10:10
Comment From Tanner
Why ard you not answering my questions?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Because there are a lot of questions in here and I dont’ see them all

10:11
Comment From Guest
Have prospect lists become better in the last 3-4 years? Seems like there are fewer Sean Burroughs and Andy Martes in the Top 10s.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect that, as with everything, there are continuous advances in the field of prospect evaluation. And also player development. Which means every so often we’re going to have to re-analyze prospect bust rates

10:11
Comment From Drew
Nelson Cruz actually had good defensive numbers for half his career—a mirage, or he simply got older and injured?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Older, bigger, and injured

10:12
Comment From Marcus A.
What is likely the biggest advantage of hit f/x data? Is being able to get a better idea of how much a pitcher’s RA-FIP gap is their own doing a realistic possibility?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: understanding BABIP sustainability, perhaps

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: for pitchers and hitters

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: maybe you get an idea of when hitters are actually slumping or injured

10:13
Comment From inquiring mind
comment: CommunityResearch has been off the charts amazing this offseason.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: That place is super busy

10:13
Comment From Joseph LA
Kemp 3 WAR next season over or under?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Slight under

10:13
Comment From Dan
Speaking of good long-term extensions, Miguel Cabrera’s 8/160 deal sure worked out quite well

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. They’re not *all* busts. You just want to be giving them to guys in their 20s, not their 30s

10:14
Comment From Guest
What would it take for the

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: INCEPTION

10:14
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Isn’t Tanaka exactly what ANY team should be gunning for? These talents/types rarely hit free agency anymore…

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, every team in baseball would be interested in signing Tanaka for a lot of money

10:15
Comment From TanGeng
Where is Bronson Arroyo going to go?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Orioles? They have to do something eventually, right?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: That market is unclear because the market for the guys in front of him is also unclear

10:15
Comment From Walt J.
I’m thinking about offering Arroyo 2 years at 7.5 per, good deal?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Sure

10:15
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Ben Zobrist: 3rd in fWAR since 2008.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s also underrated but he’s been written up pretty often as being really underrated

10:16
Comment From Schrodingers Zombie
any New Year’s resolutions?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Sleep more, hike more

10:16
Comment From Tribe guy
Please rank Cleveland’s starting rotation from best pitcher to worst.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Kluber, Salazar, Masterson, the rest

10:16
Comment From Walt J.
Grandy Sizemore on a minor league deal, 1M if he makes the roster with incentives at 350 PA, 475 PA, 550 PA?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: sure, why not?

10:17
Comment From Bham
Should I believe in the Cubs “plan”?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Probably, yeah

10:17
Comment From Mike
Sleeper NL Cy Young pick? Or is that anyone not named Kershaw

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Nailed it

10:17
Comment From Schrodingers Zombie
Do the Red Sox trade a starter? If so, who would return the most bang for the buck? And if not, who’s the last guy out of the rotation?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I think they stand pat and Doubront

10:18
Comment From Matt
If you ran the Golden Eagles, would you wait until next October/November to post Tanaka? Seems to make the most sense as long as he doesn’t suffer a career ending injury.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Objectively they should wait another year because Tanaka is basically guaranteed to get that $20 million no matter what. But if he really and truly wants to come over, despite attempts to convince him otherwise, it would look bad to stand in his way

10:19
Comment From LarryA
How much $$ was Ichiro worth the to the Ms strictly from off-the-field stuff?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Some millions

10:19
Comment From BHam
VooDoo or Dots Donuts?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really eat donuts

10:19
Comment From John
RE Art of Fielding: You didn’t find the prose a little clunky? And the dialogue seemed off. For me it was a near miss, which bothers me more than the mediocre stuff I tend to read.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Most of the books I read are non-fiction and sciencey and so I was reaching back for my latest novel

10:20
Comment From that guy
What should we expect from Kole Calhoun this year?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: An average player!

10:20
Comment From inquiring mind
oooh can you compare Tanaka to Yu for me?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Worse, a little

10:20
Comment From Quagmire
Is Cameron Maybin good at all?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: good but not good enough :(

10:21
Comment From SMC
If hit f/x data is uselful for BABIP correlation, can’t we interpolate that with some degree of reliability from the data already available?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Kind of, but we’re very limited. LD% sucks

10:21
Comment From BJ
Is the real David Freese the 2011/2012 version or the stinker in 2013?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: As usual the disappointing answer is in between!

10:21
Comment From Matt
For someone looking to get a baseball job nowadays – where would you recommend starting?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: A blog and a database

10:21
Comment From dbet
Do you think teams have developed tools for analyzing pitch framing already?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Some of them

10:22
Comment From Jaack
Do you pronounce fWAR as eff-WAR or fwar?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: eff-WAR

10:22
Comment From Josh
When will the Twins be good again?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: 2016

10:22
Comment From Guest
thoughts on Jordan Lyles ever becoming a MOR arm?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a skeptic

10:22
Comment From Franklin
Why did the NPB agree to this new posting system that shifts the money away from the teams and to the players? There’s absolutely no incentive in it for them.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: They didn’t have very much leverage

10:23
Comment From Josh
How many comments/questions do you get per second in a chat?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: SO MANY

10:23
Comment From Keanu
Have you reached a conclusion on bananas?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: still working! got a banana lined up for ten minutes from now!

10:23
Comment From Scott
Who has better career numbers 3 years from now: Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: ugh, geeeeez

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: …Salazar?

10:23
Comment From Guest
Mike Carp really gonna get ~300 PA in Boston this year?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: nope

10:24
Comment From The Mariners
The quality of this chat is declining quickly

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: says The Mariners

10:24
Comment From Matt
Rank Tanaka, Yu, Daisuke pre-MLB (without the power on hindsight)

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Darvish, then Matsuzaka, then Tanaka

10:25
Comment From church-going agnostic
Do you plan to attend a Chrismas Eve church serve in Portland tonight? I may end up at three.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I’m in San Diego right now so that would be a hell of a stretch

10:25
Comment From JD
Dave Cameron said he’s a tyrant on Twitter today–true?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: In more ways than you could possibly know

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Tell you what you guys, I gotta get going. Family stuff to attend to and whatnot

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: But this was fun for a bit and thank you all for hanging out. Sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday. Until then, be well and have great December days



Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Matt
Guest
Matt
2 years 5 months ago

Any chance you could throw all of the unanswered questions up so that the community could answer/comment on them? Should be easy and could be a fun exercise.

Unanswered question answerer
Guest
Unanswered question answerer
2 years 5 months ago

The Harry Pavlidis pitch framing research concluded that Brian McCann & Yadi Molina have each been worth 150+ runs over the past 5 seasons.

Tack 3 WAR per year onto their Fangraphs totals, and Yadier Molina is suddenly the most valuable player in baseball over the past half decade, with a cumulative 38.3 wins. McCann is neck-n-neck with Justin Verlander and Miggy Cabrera for the #2 spot, with J.V. worth 33.6, B.M. worth 33.1, and Cabrera 32.5.

Jay driscoll
Guest
2 years 5 months ago

20 team, H2H points league, 25 man roster, keep 12, 260 cap. Offered $9 gomez for $28 Bautista. If I keep bautista, I have 36 at the auction to buy 13 players. If I trade for Gomez, I have 55 to spend. What do you think?

olerudshelmet
Member
olerudshelmet
2 years 5 months ago

Not knowing exactly what your point values are, I’d do that deal. Even with BABIP regression, Gomez should be a top 10-20 outfielder, which is about the same as Bautista at this point. You’re really only losing walks by going with Gomez.

FAT
Guest
FAT
2 years 5 months ago

Considering Gomez’s career xBABIP is one of the highest in recent memory (.337) and he was playing through four broken ribs (where he hit only .226/.288/.389 in the final one and a half months after his inury), I think we can reasonably expect a .310-.320/.360-.370/.550-.580 with 30+ homeruns and 50+ stolen bases.

Prime Minister David Cameron
Guest
Prime Minister David Cameron
2 years 5 months ago

Good point, chap! I’m appointing you to the Ministry of Exposition.

John
Guest
John
2 years 5 months ago

Why does the minor league FIP calculator use 3.20 as its constant instead of adjusting it to fit the league ERA?

Prime Minister David Cameron
Guest
Prime Minister David Cameron
2 years 5 months ago

Good point, chap! I’m appointing you to the Ministry of Exposition.

Canuck
Guest
Canuck
2 years 5 months ago

Do we know or can we calculate how many more people “are well” because they’ve been told to “be well”?

Prime Minister David Cameron
Guest
Prime Minister David Cameron
2 years 5 months ago

Good point, chap! I’m appointing you to the Ministry of Exposition.

Odog
Guest
Odog
2 years 5 months ago

Kind of, but this is something that baseball teams have a much better sense of than humans.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
2 years 5 months ago

I dunno where to put this, so why not here.

In the spirit of Christmas – thanks to all of the tireless FanGraphs writers for cranking out thought-provoking original content day after day after day, all for free. Thanks for interacting with your readership; for revisiting conclusions, having calm but spirited discussions, for taking article ideas from a question in a chat or comment appended to an article.

Sometimes I come away from an article with a fresh perspective on a topic that’s been covered many times; sometimes it makes me consider things I had never even thought about.

I may not always agree with a particular article or conclusion, but that’s OK; I don’t want to read articles by someone that I agree with 100% of the time. The only person I agree with 100% of the time is me, and I am well aware that I don’t know shit.

At any rate, thanks to all the FG contributors. Jeff and Dave for doing the yeoman’s work of cranking out interesting new content on a near-daily basis. Carson for analyzing projections and bringing us FanGraphs audio. Wendy for her excellent perspective and supremely readable style on the business issues surrounding baseball. Alex for bringing up unique topics and angles that baseball touches. Bradley for baseball-related graphics that incorporate Mario. Eno and Marc and Paul and Matt and all the rest of the excellent contributors – thank you.

We don’t say it often enough nowadays, we’re quick to complain and quick to judge, but less quick to offer a kind word. Your quality articles tide us over in the dark, cold, baseball-free days of winter until the days start to lengthen, the pitchers and catchers report, and the season begins anew.

Did I mention it didn’t cost me a cent?

Odog
Guest
Odog
2 years 5 months ago

Seconded, 100%.

And a quick reminder that you can support FanGraphs by getting an F+ membership for (if it’s the same as last year), $5. You get additional content that makes you feel far superior to the idiots in your fantasy league. As we all learned in school, F+ is better than F. If you read Fangraphs, you know that the difference is worth well over $5.

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