Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/30/14

December 30, 2014

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I hope you’re having a pleasant this time of year

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: If anybody is around, let us discuss the sport that we discuss

9:05	Comment From John All this talk of Drew going to get 9-10 a year for multiple years is ridonculous right?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve believed it to be more ridiculous before Kendrys Morales got real money for two guaranteed seasons. Seems teams are willing to forgive the missed-spring-training thing, and Drew is a shortstop in a market that doesn’t have any

9:06	Comment From Guest Why don’t you do this chat at 3pm or something, take the opportunity to sleep in?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I keep starting later and later, minutes at a time, and eventually these’ll get going at night

9:07	Comment From Guest I’m having a great this time of year, Jeff, thanks!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Thank you! Thank you everybody!

9:07	Comment From Mike Happy New Year Jeff. Looks like Asdrubal to the Rays.. where does Zobrist end up?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Popular pick is the Giants. You obviously bet the field over the Giants, individually, but he’d fill a lot of roles there, and they have the resources since he’s only under control one more year

9:08	Comment From Curtis Susac catching for SF in future or somewhere else?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I envision him gradually gaining more and more playing time each year in San Francisco

9:09	Comment From Tom ZiPS for the Cardinals has 1B as their only glaring hole. What do you see them doing long-term with that position? Is Matt Adams the answer or do you see them going elsewhere?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Adams is young, cheap, and fine, so he’s not really a *problem* — on another team, a less deep team, he wouldn’t be a concern. Adams clearly isn’t an impact player in development, so the Cardinals’ next franchise 1B presumably isn’t in the organization, but for the time being Adams is a fine plug-in

9:10	Comment From Curtis 2014 role for Marco Gonzales?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not in the rotation right now, but I expect him to pick up a lot of starter innings in the event of DL trips or Carlos Martinez not working out well enough

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Sixth starters, in this day and age, tend to get a lot of work.

9:12	Comment From Birthday Boy Hey Jeff, if the M’s get Seth Smith, who do you think they will end up shipping to San Diego? Maurer? Thanks.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Charlie Furbush would make a lot of sense in a bullpen that doesn’t have a good shutdown lefty, but then the Mariners also probably want to keep a shutdown lefty. Maurer’s a good guess. Maurer or Farquhar

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I figured there was a good chance that Maurer would be part of a package going to Atlanta for Justin Upton at one point

9:14	Comment From Danny What would Zobrist cost in trade?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Good player, going to cost about $7.5 million. Qualifying offer at the end. If Zobrist is worth something like, I don’t know, $30 million based just on his wins contributed, then you’re looking at the Rays asking for an upper-level prospect. Obviously not a Kris Bryant level or anything, but Zobrist is going to cost one or two pieces close to big-league ready

9:15	Comment From RyanW Which pitcher do you prefer and why? Gausman or Aaron Sanchez?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Gausman; superior record of throwing strikes

9:15	Comment From Jose Is there any chance the Scherzer contract wont be terrible?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but not a 50% chance

9:15	Comment From Aaron Cabrera to the Rays opens the door for a Zobrist to Toronto or Washington trade, right?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s time now for the Zobrist sweepstakes. But there’s also Takashi Toritani and Hector Olivera out there. Toritani will make a decision soon, but Olivera might be months off. So those are minor complications

9:16	Comment From Curtis As an Aaron Sanchez fan should I root hard for the Jays to acquire a closer? I hope he gets an extended chance to start….

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: If you root specifically for Aaron Sanchez, and you specifically want for him to start, yeah, you want the Jays to get another reliever. But Sanchez might be best in the bullpen anyway, so

9:17	Comment From GSon Hamels wears a ________________ Uniform on Opening Day?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve moved my guess from Boston to Philadelphia to San Diego

9:17	Comment From Andrew Who has a better year: Latos or Carrasco?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Carrasco

9:17	Comment From Sandy thanks for making the work day bearable. What position on the diamond was your favorite to play back in the day?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Well I pretty much only pitched, but I really miss pitching. I love the feeling of being at the center of everything. You’re the guy in control of the game

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: BABIP luck excepted. But I didn’t think about that in high school

9:18	Comment From Guest There’s not much exciting going on in baseball lately Jeff. I liked your team projection pieces though, fun stuff. Funny results, too! Surprised we’re not seeing predictions of more variance when the crowd pitches in, though.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: There are a few teams where people believe the projections are off. I’m guessing I’ll re-visit the results in depth early next week. The rest of this week is basically shot but I really want to examine how people have voted

9:19	Comment From Your Display Name What three teams have the best chance to outperform their projections?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. In no order, and assuming things remain as they are right now:

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Brewers

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Mets

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Orioles

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: That’ll do

9:20	Comment From Guest Did you grow up in the PNW, or did you move there? If so, do you miss having proper seasons?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Moved to Portland about five years ago. Great decision by Past Jeff

9:21	Comment From Joe Would the Yankees have received a draft pick had they offered a Kuroda a qualifying offer (now that he signed back over to japan)?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not 100% certain here, but my understanding is, no, there would have been no draft pick

9:21

Comment From Hutch
M’s fan here. Am I off-base when I say that getting Seth Smith feels like marrying your really boring on again, off again long-term love interest that you don’t really love because you’re 30 and don’t want to live your life alone, whereas getting Zobrist is like throwing off the shackles of society’s expectations and carpe diem and marrying the tatted up professional artist that your mother hates because that’s what your heart feels?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: In this example, Ben Zobrist is put forward as the alternative, counter-culture, rebellious type

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist would be an exciting acquisition, no doubt. Smith would be less exciting, but honestly, I think a chunk of that is because of his name. Seth Smith. Who could give a crap about Seth Smith? Now imagine the same numbers posted by someone named…Xavier Lagodulce.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Getting Seth Smith is like getting Matt Joyce. Pretty useful. Far less expensive than getting Ben Zobrist.

9:25	Comment From Mike Mets SS: Drew, Flores, Tejada or someone else? Do you think they could match up for Zobrist and play him at SS and shift him all over the place?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mets would definitely match up well for Zobrist, but I don’t think they’re interested in paying what it would cost to have Zobrist for one year. They’re trying to be in this for longer.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I’m assuming it’s Flores

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Tulowitzki is the dream, but I just can’t see a trade getting agreed to before he gets back on a field and proves himself healthy

9:26	Comment From TedR Victorino’s playing somewhere else in 2015, right?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it’s that certain. The Red Sox still have a piece or two to move, but I think Victorino is great as part of an outfield foursome

9:27	Comment From RyanW What’s your Kris Bryant projection in the bigs this year?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not as high on his rookie season as Steamer. Steamer sees a 128 wRC+; I’m more 100 – 110

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I like Bryant a lot, but the gap between Triple-A and the majors right now is enormous

9:28	Comment From Guest Should I pay $260 for standing room tickets to see the Caps play someone in iced hockey on a rink temporarily placed on the infield of Nats stadium? Leaning no

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I would say no, but I don’t know how much that money means to you. If you regularly drop a few hundred dollars for things like meals or events, then, go for it.

9:28	Comment From Curtis What will the Cubs OF look like in 2015? would it rank in the top half of MLB?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t think it’s going to be a top-half outfield. I figure they’ll get one more guy, but I dont’ think he’ll be special

9:29	Comment From Dustin Is there any reason whatsoever for an Atlanta Braves fan like myself to be excited about the upcoming season?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m really super interested in Alex Wood

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: uhhhh

9:30	Comment From GSon Should the Indians consider trading one of Salazar or McAllister if they can get Wil Myers in return?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:30	Comment From Guest Most recent word is that a few teams like Drew for 2B…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Neat thing about shortstops is they can also play not-shortstop

9:30	Comment From Compton Would you consider Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus to be complimentary or substitute goods?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: They’re fairly complementary in many ways, but then there’s only so much baseball content people can consume

9:31	Comment From Mike Over / Under on Mets wins: 85

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I mentally think of them as 82 – 83

9:31	Comment From RyanW The starting SS/2b for the Rangers in 2016 will be?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Andrus/Profar

9:32	Comment From Mariah Carey Steamer has Logan Morrison at a 117 wRC+. When will Steamer be updated?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, last year he finished at 110. I also did not realize that

9:32	Comment From boss So Cabrera signing with the Rays…Zobrist is gone, right?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good time to be selling the best available position player

9:33	Comment From boss Thoughts on a Susac/Crick for Zobrist trade?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Would be a good trade for the Rays

9:34	Comment From The Colonel Kennys Vargas, the kid looks like he could be good and he’s OPS’d over .800 every year. The Twins must believe in him because he hits cleanup. What do we have with this guy?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot of swing and miss in his game, and while he has a positive track record he’s seldom been dominant. Moved quickly, which is a point in his favor. He obviously hits the ball harder than almost anyone else when he connects, but the same could be said of Carlos Peguero. Vargas is a little better than Peguero, but without much in the way of defensive value, he only really fits on a team presently not going anywhere

9:37	Comment From Eric Do you think Toritani (at $3M/1) plus Travis is better than Asdrubal (at $8M/1) + Travis for Jays?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I like Travis. Toritani is easier to displace. Asdrubal’s declining. I don’t think the Jays missed out here

9:37	Comment From Who plays 2B for White Sox, who plays 1B for Philly if Howard is jettisoned? Which OF, if any, are the Giants chasing?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist count?

9:37	Comment From steven will there ever be harsher penalties applied to teams who go way past their international budgets?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Better question for Kiley!

9:38	Comment From Your Display Name Do you consider yourself snobby about anything?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: There’s only vestigial snobbiness remaining. People should enjoy what they enjoy

9:38	Comment From The Colonel A’s seem high on Jesse Hahn. Could he be a mid-rotation guy or do you see him more of a back-end starter?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s a No. 3 with questions about his health

9:39	Comment From The Colonel I read a lot of mixed opinions on Arismendy Alcantara. How do you see his career playing out?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt he ever does a ton of hitting. Obviously like his versatility. I’d be a fan of him as a 450-PA utility player.

9:40	Comment From Compton Any interesting findings from the projections polls yesterday? I have to assume that there will be a clear skew of people thinking all teams(except the Phillies) will win more than they’re projected.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I want to give them more than a day before I examine the results in depth. But I’m really looking forward to getting everything in a spreadsheet

9:42

Comment From Mike
With Jimmy *officially* gone from Philly, would it make sense for the Phillies to try and go out and sign Everth Cabrera or Stephen Drew to one year deals? Would be able to guarantee them playing time, with the ability to rebuild value. Bigger question would be, would either of those 2 want to sign in Philly.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Would only really make sense if the Phillies intended to make a midseason trade. That would be the upside for the players signing there. But some other team will offer more money or a better opportunity

9:43	Comment From John does san diego have any lefty hitters? kemp, upton, myers, middlebrooks, gyorko all righties, no? who am i foregting

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Smith, Venable, Alonso, Amarista, Solarte

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: But, yeah, it’s lopsided

9:44	Comment From Mike Any New Years Plans?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.mthoodadventure….

9:44	Comment From Mookie Fan Can Jose Ramirez keep significant PT in CLE or does he need to be dealt?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Well he doesn’t need to be dealt, but yeah, he’s not going to hold Lindor off forever. Something will happen between today and next December

9:46	Comment From Guest Sibling question to one asked of you last chat: what’s the least cool thing that has happened to you related to/as a result of your work as a baseball journalist?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: On most FanGraphs trips I share a hotel room with Dave, who snores

9:47	Comment From John A-Cab. 1 year $8. Good? Should the blue jays be kicking themselves right now?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Jays pretty clearly prefer a guy in the Toritani mold. And Cabrera’s only getting worse. It’s a fine deal, but nothing Toronto needs to worry about

9:48	Comment From Chris Do you see the Mariners making a play for Zobrist?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make an offer, if they haven’t, but they’re not a great fit for a one-year player

9:49	Comment From Art Vandelay If Shields gets the 9 figures he’s allegedly asking for, would that be the worst signing of the offseason?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: That would be bad, but you could still see a worse return from Cruz, or Markakis, or Martinez. Shields remains a pretty good pitcher who’s faced a lot of tough opponents

9:49	Comment From Curtis Jesse Hahn in Oakland is a good fit, yes?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Many pitchers in Oakland are good fits. Hahn is among them!

9:50	Comment From L. Scott Will Mike Piazza make the HOF? And do you think he deserves it?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll make it, and he’ll deserve it

9:50	Comment From Ryan What sort of production do you see from Rougned Odor this year? Is he the everyday 2B in Texas?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Right now he’s the everyday 2B, but only until the Rangers deem Profar ready in the minors. I still see Odor as a real trade candidate and possibly within the next few weeks.

9:51	Comment From Howard Many of my fellow Mets fans are optimistic of a playoff berth in 2015. I think they are insane and that best case, they’re an 84-win non playoff team. Who’s right?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Well, actual best case, the Mets stay healthy and add Troy Tulowitzki and they hold pretty close to the Nationals. I don’t think the Mets are a playoff team right now, but they’re close enough to the fourth and fifth-best teams in the NL that you might as well dream, right? There’s plenty of talent there

9:52	Comment From Mike Better Year: Gausman or Odorizzi?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Odorizzi

9:52	Comment From Ed Who’s gonna be traded first in Rays, Yunel Escobar or Ben Zobrist?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: People want Zobrist

9:53

Comment From jester king
Do you think a GM has ever ponded where to play a middle IF and said “2B, or not 2B” and laughed quietly to himself before taking another drink from the bottle of Jack that moved from a drawer of his desk to on top of it once he realized his team was expensive and terrible and he wasn’t long for this career

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Problem is I don’t think people say 2B out loud like that

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Second base is very easy to say

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: sorry 🙁

9:54	Comment From Compton Trinity College was an answer(question?) on Jeopardy last week! The only reason I knew the answer was because of your recent FG audio with Cistulli. I guess my point is: you should fill in for Dave more often, the change up was enjoyable!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I like doing the pods but it gets weird when there’s almost literally nothing to discuss, like yesterday. I get uncomfortable when we go too long without talking about baseball because I know why people actually listen to these things, but then when there’s no baseball to discuss…

9:55

Comment From Milton
I ordered a mousepad on snapfish because why not everyone needs a new mousepad now and then and because it was 50% off by S&H is like the entirety of that 50% off and if I would have spent $13 more dollars to get to the point I got free shipping so actually I paid more because I got less what is this I don’t even

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: sweet mousepad though

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: My mousepad has a picture of Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra standing next to one another in sweaters. It says “Any time. Anywhere. Any inning.” and it’s from Fleet HomeLink, which I understand to have been related to a bank at some point

9:56	Comment From Julian It seems that teams are always looking for a certain type of player, usually at a certain position. The sabermetric community seems to think an upgrade is an upgrade? Why the discrepancy?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s actually much of a discrepancy. Sometimes teams do get locked into thinking they need one thing in particular, but those teams are falling into a trap. Ordinarily it’s just about upgrading however you can, and teams have a bias for plugging holes instead of upgrading positions that are already okay

9:57

Comment From Im in a keeper league and own Xander Boegarts as my SS. Do you feel Ill need to draft a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera as insurance, or would you feel confident that Xander is going to live up to the hype?
I’m in a keeper league and own Xander Boegarts as my SS. Do you feel I’ll need to draft a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera as insurance, or would you feel confident that Xander is going to live up to the hype?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I like Bogaerts in 2015

9:57	Comment From Flippy You should flip the chat.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how. No one ever told me. None of the settings I’ve changed appear to have done the trick. 🙁

9:57	Comment From Miranda Remaklus Have you ever seen Carson Cistulli and Dan Szymborski in the same room together?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:58	Comment From Big Hurt Have the Rays given up on Nick Franklin already or do they simply want him to spend another half-year on the farm so they have another year of team control?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: No, they haven’t given up on him, but they dont’ need to rush him and he hasn’t at all proven himself yet.

9:59	Comment From Matt Has Ben Zobrist generated more WAR/$ in his contract than any other player in the past 20 years?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Without doing the actual analysis, I know he’s up there, but what are we doing with guys like Mike Trout and league-minimum contracts?