Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/11/14

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Stilllll getting the hang of this new CiL

9:06
Comment From jocephus
provide content!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying!

9:07
Comment From Dave
Definitely read that as ‘still getting over this hangover’

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: On a Tuesday?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not Eno

9:07
Comment From Chad
12:06! Are you kidding man?!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Oh no! Six lost minutes! If only I provided like 60 free minutes on the other end literally every week!

9:07
Comment From Jake
3 guys who’re gonna get moved in late July:

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Starting to think Jeff Samardzija could be one of them

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have two others but I’ve got Samadzija on the mind

9:08
Comment From Prich
Ms sign Wolf and Miner… Should we just engrave their AL Champ trophy now?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Wolf + Miner sounds like a hipster brunch restaurant

9:09
Comment From Alexei Ramirez
Once Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus come off the board, is it possible that I’m potentially the next best available SS option for those in AL-only leagues?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Brad Miller!

9:09
Comment From Llewdor
Does the day of the week matter when you work on the internet?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Work’s work. I don’t drink very much during the week.

9:10
Comment From Guest
What is a 5 tool player to you? A guy with 5 above average tools? Five 60′s? Five 80′s?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say five above-average

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Who the hell has five 80s?

9:11
Comment From Anon21
Assuming one has the money and vacation days to make it work, should one take the day off and brave unpleasant Milwaukee weather to watch one’s favorite team open on the road, given the unsavory possibility that said team might lose?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: How comfortable are you being around tens of thousands of people really excited to cheer for the team that’s trying to beat yours?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I hate being a fan on the road but if your options are limited, you take what you can get

9:12
Comment From Cason Jollette
i want to go to leaderboards and sort by xHR/Fb and batted ball distance and xBABIP !!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I want the snow on the streets to be melted

9:12
Comment From Gson
AJ Burnett signs a ____ year contract with the ____________________ baseball team for $ ____ MM.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: 1, Pirates, $12?

9:13
Comment From Bobby
Any indication that Yan Gomes could perform above expectations?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: What are the expectations?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: He seems like an all-right defensive catcher with a projected 108 wRC+

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: The Fans are in agreement

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll perform above that if he hits to last year’s .342 BABIP

9:15
Comment From Chris
Are the Mariners going after Santana? Seems like a lot of rumors indicating that yesterday.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: (Ervin)

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: They’re involved. Like everybody else they’re waiting to see how low the price will drop. My understanding is their preference would be to trade for an SP

9:15
Comment From Prich
If you are Jack Z, who are you willing offer to the Cubs for Samardzija?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Not enough for the Cubs to take it, based on the reports of their demands to date

9:16
Comment From Bobby
What’s Fister’s ceiling this year?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: 5-win pitcher

9:16
Comment From Putin
In your opinion, what are the top 3 rotations and top 3 bullpens in the NL?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals/Dodgers/Cardinals

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Braves/Dodgers/…Reds? Pirates?

9:18
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
do you think the projections are too down on Profar for 2014? he showed a pretty elite contact rate and seemed to mostly be the victim of a too-passive approach/letting a lot of called strikes by

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Steamer sees him as a little below average. ZiPS sees him as a little below average. Fans see him as a little above average, and Fans are always systematically optimistic

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: There’s obviously room for upside but if he had issues determining when to swing, why should that resolve itself right away?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: You’re suggesting he was a victim of his own skillset

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I think he has a reasonably high floor but something like a .310-.320 wOBA wouldn’t be surprising

9:21
Comment From Guest
Your thoughts on the Michael Brantley extension… I need to know them.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Another non-elite young player giving up a bit of free agency. Demonstration of the value in reliable adequacy

9:22
Comment From Gila Monster
Isn’t the problem with moving Samardjiza that the Cubs have absolutely no pitching in the system?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Well, that would be a problem if the Cubs were trying to win right away. But they’re in a position to accumulate value and plus they’d probably get some pitching back

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija isn’t a long-term piece for them. Unless they can re-sign him, in which case, he wouldn’t be traded

9:23
Comment From Gson
James Paxton = Clayton Kershaw Lite or version 2… Agree with that assessment?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not even a little bit

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, how lite are we talking here?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: He’s Erik Bedard with a better attitude

9:24
Comment From Chris
How many plate appearances for Franklin as Mariner for 2014?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: 0 – 50

9:24
Comment From Josh
Do you think Maholm/Beckett/Billingsley/Zach Lee/Haren make a viable enough back of the rotation for the Dodgers or will they have to go out and do the Nolasco thing again?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be fine. They should have enough SP depth, and there are other areas they could attempt to upgrade

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Kind of. They’re approaching the level of complete team, pending injury/underperformance

9:25
Comment From Jake
Why are 5 tool players so prized if all it takes is 5 above average? That’s great and all, but it’s not the most valuable possibility in a prospect

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: They have tons of ways they can contribute so it’s relatively unlikely they’ll suck

9:26
Comment From Jarred Cosart
You have said not one, but two nice things about me in the past. Do you think I can be better than a 1 WAR pitcher?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve said nice things about you?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I sure don’t think you’re very good

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Throw strikes pls

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Of course you can be better than a 1-WAR pitcher but that’s a super low threshold. I don’t love your future career

9:28
Comment From Gson
Ubaldo Jimenez signs a ____ year contract with the __________________baseball team for $ ____ MM

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have actual insight here, but:

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: 3, Blue Jays, 40

9:29
Comment From Guest
Any ideas on how to better compensate younger players while they are most productive and lower the contract value of older declining players?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Fundamentally change the MLBPA

9:30
Comment From john
On the fangraphs projection page, I can select by team. Why can’t I filter by league?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Good question. I’ll ask!

9:30
Comment From Matt cain
Will I resume my DIPS destruction in 2014?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe barely. But last year wasn’t an aberration. 2013: -0.1 FDP-Wins. 2011: -0.3 FDP-Wins.

9:31
Comment From Zach
Ignoring the fact that he’s a Scott Boras client and that the Orioles don’t like spending money, what would the O’s have to spend on an extension for Chris Davis this spring?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Give me two minutes to run some math

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try $185m/8yr

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Boy that sure sounds steep

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Boy you really have to believe in Davis’ 2013

9:35
Comment From Bobby
Expectations are that Gomes avg. will take a big hit, though he does seem to hit the ball awfully hard, suggesting a regression in BABIP may not be as dramatic as the projections suggest.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably a .300-.310 BABIP player. Just because he might’ve hit the ball extra hard last season doesn’t make that a sustainable skill, and he is a catcher

9:36
Comment From Northsider
Assuming the Cubs do trade Samadzija in July, Do you believe his 2014 performance will improve his trade value or lock him into the “overrated 3/4 with potential” persona?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I think the hope would be that his ERA would start to match his xFIP and then all of a sudden, bam, available ace at the deadline!

9:37
Comment From dbet
Do you think Billy Hamilton is fast enough to make up for the lack of defense from the Mariners 1B playing outfield?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Billy Hamilton is fast enough to improve the Seattle Mariners, no

9:38
Comment From Jake
How do so many players carry negative BsR? Isn’t a positive BsR as easy as conservative running+only stealing on passed balls?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Because roughly half of everyone has to be below average

9:38
Comment From zack
Which Brave will suck less in 2014: Uggla or Upton?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take Uggla!

9:39
Comment From Guest
What insiders do you put the most faith in?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Rosenthal

9:39
Comment From Jays fan
At this time last year what would the odds have been that the Jays season would turn into the unmitigated disaster that we, their fans, had to endure?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: 10-15%. There’s always a chance any given team will go through a nightmare!

9:40
Comment From _David_
Any thoughts on new Mariners Randy Wolf and Zach Minor?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Zach Miner wasn’t good at his best and Randy Wolf hasn’t had a 3-win season since 2002

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Veteran depth. Nothing but veteran depth

9:41
Comment From Guest
I saw you for the first time on Clubhouse Confidential. You’re hot. call me.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Are you sure you’re not thinking about Brian Kenny?

9:41
Comment From jocephus
i can’t believe kozma even made the numbers > fans list

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals fans might just hate Pete Kozma

9:41
Comment From SilentSnake
Bigger impact 2014, Archie, Taijuan or Tanaka. Also, am I crazy for loving Pineda?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka obviously

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: And you’re not crazy. Anything’s possible for Pineda until/unless we find out surgery ate his velocity

9:42
Comment From AL
Yesterday Dave said that Jesus Montero has no trade value. I don’t think that many people would argue that, but if you are a fan of the Brewers why wouldn’t you try and trade a bag of balls for him, and roll the dice with him at 1st in a hitters park? He can’t be worse than what they put on the field last year, and at least he gives you some long-term value if he does anything, unlike Reynolds/Overbay?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: No reason for the Mariners to give him away now. Specifically because he has zero value they might as well let him try to hit in Tacoma

9:43
Comment From Dave
Jeff, is there any way pretty please that we could get Zips’ career line (including counting stats) for Craig Kimbrel? Pretty pretty please?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: You’re a day late I’m afraid to ask that in a FG chat :(

9:44
Comment From Guest
Teams that are “going for it” that probs shouldn’t be?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone’s acting too irresponsibly

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: It would be one thing if, like, the DBacks had drained the system to trade for David Price

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird that the Twins have spent so much on the rotation. But the bigger issue to me is that teams like the Orioles and Reds havent’ done anything despite being potentially competitive

9:46
Comment From zack
If the Reds hadn’t signed Votto to that extension and he had made it to free agency this offseason, would have gotten less money? How much less?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a year younger than Cano and the last three years he’s been worth 0.7 WAR less, pretty much entirely because of the 2012 injury

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I could see something like $192m/8yr

9:49
Comment From ralph
Do you frequent hipster brunch restaurants? Is it possible not to if you live in Portland?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I used to do it more but it turns out I also like cooking and saving money and not waiting in lines for an hour

9:50
Comment From Bobby
Reasons for optimism with respect to Alex Gordon and/or Billy Butler?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Last year Gordon was a good player and two years ago Butler was a good player

9:51
Comment From Dave
Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. I was reading one of Gladwell’s books a while back. He did an interesting study looking at the success of ‘older’ vs ‘younger’ players in a age-specific league (example, a 9 year 0 month old playing in the same league as a 9 year 11 month old), and found that players that were ‘older’ (for example, the 9 year 11 month old) were more likely to attain professional success. Can you guys at fangraphs perhaps create a study looking at the same concept, but for high school draftees? Is a player that is 18 years and 11 months old at draft time overvalued over a player that is 17 years and 9 months old? Who achieves more success? Thank you!

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this would be something for the new THT

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Too research-intensive for regular routine FG content

9:52
Comment From west burnside
Would 35-year-old lefthander Wandy Rodriguez, who is owed a net $7.5 million on the final year of his contract, or five years of 26-year-old southpaw Jeff Locke, a 2013 NL All Star who bombed after the break, be a better target in a Seattle trade of three years of firstbaseman Justin Smoak? Or neither after the Marines signed Randy Wolf to a minor league contract?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: You definitely prefer Locke — surplus value! — but the Pirates shouldn’t give up Locke for Justin Smoak, who isn’t good

9:54
Comment From Gila Monster
If you were the Cubs, would you entertain the option of a Baez-lead trade for Giancarlo Stanton? Starlin Castro “should” bounce back to being a 3 WAR SS and he is locked up until 2020. The Cubs are one of the few teams with the talent and money to make a Stanton trade/extension happen

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’d be willing to go that far

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’m also open to being talked out of that, but I’m in love with Giancarlo Stanton and less in love with prospects with discipline concerns

9:57
Comment From j6takish
With teams now properly valuing elite young talent, will we ever see another player passed over due to bonus demands? Will there ever be another Matt Bush/Justin Verlander type of move?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not a draft expert, but you are probably not going to see that. Some players will be passed over for slightly less expensive players but for the most part talent will win out, along with a signability factor

9:58
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
follow up on Profar: I wonder if there’d be a way to parse out young players who were very patient in the minors being “too passive” upon MLB debut. I am thinking Profar, Ackley, Hicks etc. I am wondering what the future held for other guys that came up and suffered what looks like inflated K rates vs. their contact rates. I feel like contact is the “truer” skill and deciding when to swing is easier than deciding to make more contact when one does.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps the contact rates are inflated by only swinging at pitches you feel comfortable swinging at

9:58
Comment From Guest
If 1 WAR is worth $6 to $7 million. How much is -1 WAR worth

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: a few million in Japan

9:59
Comment From KJ
Any thoughts on Tommy LaStella? seems to be buried on prospect lists, if on them at all. Really nice AA #s and Dan Uggla can’t exactly be hard to dethrone…

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: high-OBP/low-power types don’t tend to fare very well against more advanced competition when they’re challenged with strikes more often

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I was always fascinated by Reggie Willits, but he wound up at .258/.356/.302 in the majors in a thousand PAs. 84 wRC+. It can work out all right, but you need to have some other skills

10:01
Comment From Larry
Better sophmore season? Miller, Ryu, Teheran?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Ryu

10:02
Comment From _David_
Do you think the Mariners would give Erasmo a spot over Paxton, if it came to that, and he was healthy?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners are fond of Ramirez, Paxton, and Walker, the latter two more than the former. But the door is open for Ramirez if he gets back to what he was in 2012

10:03
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Are the fans way too optimistic on Sonny Gray? (8.8 K/9 and 2.77 BB/9 w/ a 3.20 FIP) I mean way too optimistic as in beyond their usual systematic optimism…..

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Give them credit for at least projecting some regression from what he did in the majors in 2013

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Seems to me he’s their best starting pitcher

10:04
Comment From Brian
Based on your Dodgers comment, who are the most complete team(s) in the NL and in the AL?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers or Cardinals, and A’s

10:05
Comment From Sagar
Can we just note that Zack Greinke had a 1.2 WAR from batting last year.

10:05
Comment From The Rebel
What is your greatest memory of Vladimir Guerrerro and outside of Oscar Taveras, do you see another player that even comes close to resembling his skillset?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: For some time, Pablo Sandoval was MLB’s closest approximation

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly my greatest memory of Vlad is all the damage he did while running like he literally had a stick up his ass

10:06
Comment From Robocles
How long before the Cubs are contenders?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Fringey in two years, pretty solid in three

10:07
Comment From Guest
Who would you rather sit down and talk with. A high profile agent or a head scout for a team?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Agent, because he’d be more likely to buy my meal

10:07
Comment From Jon
Dodgers, Braves, Nats, Cards, Pirates the 5 NL playoff teams if you had to make a prediction?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: That would be my current guess

10:08
Comment From Jack
If the Jays acquire a starting pitcher does that eliminate Stroman’s chances?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Only really out of spring training. Then, as last year’s Jays demonstrate, you never know when you’ll have a need

10:09
Comment From _David_
How big of a loss is it in removing Ackley from the one thing he was good at, and should this be factored into analysis of whether the Cano signing was a good idea?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Well he was moved before Cano was signed, to make room for Nick Franklin. And ultimately it won’t matter unless Ackley starts to hit. But what happens with Franklin is a part of the evaluation of the Cano move, in an extended way

10:11
Comment From Robocles
Do you read any of the baseball annuals that get published? Any favorites?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much all my baseball reading is online, and I’m online a lot of the time. When I’m able to not be on a computer, I’m interested in reading about something completely different

10:12
Comment From Guest
How many pitchers start games for the Jays this year?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: 9

10:12
Comment From Average Sports Fan
If Hamilton can’t handle CF, what do the Reds do?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Choo couldn’t handle CF and the Reds won 90 games

10:13
Comment From Guest
Fan of the DH becoming league wide?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Big part of me yes, part of me no just because I cherish the opportunities to examine pitcher hitting statistics

10:14
Comment From Josh
The Fangraphs depth charts page projects the M’s to win 82 games. Do you buy that this roster, without additional changes will finish above .500?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s a .500 team in a division with three superior teams

10:14
Comment From Sadwick
Uggla? That’s a brave (LOOKOUT FOR THE PUN) pick considering he’s older and has never posted positive value on the bases or defensively.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, last year he was a win better than Upton

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: The year before, he was just as good

10:16
Comment From 2ndHS
Could Yovani Gallardo’s increased usage of a two-seam fastball be responsible for his decreased SwgStr% and therefore effectiveness?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He lost whiffs on everything but his slider

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Big question is the velocity

10:17
Comment From Harjit
Jeff, what kind of questions do you prefer. Fantasy ones or actual baseball? Also, sidenote, climbing some gym v3/v4 and 10d’s now!

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Fantasy questions tend to repel me

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I like questions that are interesting and able to be answered in ~a minute. Keep climbing and keep climbing harder! Also don’t hurt yourself. Don’t ever climb through joint pain

10:18
Comment From Redd
Have you heard any new news on the M’s being able to trade Franklin? How is it no one is interested in a decent 2b?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Teams are interested and there’s stuff that isn’t reported but teams are also wary of his strikeouts, defense, and physical build

10:18
Comment From Average Sports Fan
Will Cameron Maybin ever deliver on his alleged potential?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: If you mean will he be a star, no

10:19
Comment From Jones
Any plans to go down to Spring Training? Do you ever go?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I go with the FG people. We’ll be in Arizona for a few days in the middle of March

10:19
Comment From Dave
Believe Cashman when he says he believes that Tanaka only has #3 potential? He is a) wrong, b) lying, or c) correct?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: “We view him to be a really solid, consistent No. 3 starter,” Cashman said on “The Herd with Colin Cowherd” on ESPN Radio. “If we get more than that, all the better. He’s got a great deal of ability.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: He’s just trying to limit the pressure he puts on the new guy and temper otherwise unreasonable expectations. Right now, they probably really do see him as a #3, and he could improve from there as he becomes more comfortable

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: But let’s face it, you don’t spend $175 million on a No. 3 starter

10:22
Comment From Tony Cingrani
Over/Under 170 Strikeouts for me?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say you just miss

10:22
Comment From Ace
Why do MiLB pitchers sometimes get pulled after a few scoreless innings? I see this from time to time when looking over boxscores and stats. The only ideas I came up with were pitch counts and fatigue…

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: There’s little incentive to win in the minors, where the priority is to develop players without pushing them too hard

10:23
Comment From Corey
In regards to your article this morning, where do you find your opinion tends to be? With the numbers, with the fans, in between?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I trust the numbers more, but if the fans disagree, then I’ll look for an evaluation somewhere in the middle because I think that probably has value

10:24
Comment From toot toot
what could the reds have done this offseason, realistically?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Rotation depth, get two outfielders, keep Hanigan

10:24
Comment From OPercy
What’s a rumored trade that makes too much sense to not happen?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: maybe Mike Carp to the Pirates for a half-decent pitching prospect but perhaps the Red Sox won’t come around to that for another month

10:26
Comment From Tom
I’ve read lots of people saying the Brewers are a wild card contender. I just don’t see it. Do you?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They might be the tenth-best team in the NL. I don’t love their chances

10:27
Comment From TKDC
What are the chances 2014 is the best year yet for Albert Pujols in an Angels Uniform?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think he can match 2012. I like him as a bounceback candidate but I dont’ think he’s elite anymore

10:27
Comment From Robbie
Is Luhnow’s hope in stocking up on veteran relievers to flip them at the deadline when contending GMs go a little relief crazy?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s also interested in actually spending money to make an effort and so that the team doesn’t completely suck

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I dont’ think the Astros want to draw very many 0.0 TV ratings

10:28
Comment From kevinthecomic
Let’s say that you could have magically dropped last year’s Astros into the World Series (instead of the Red Sox)to play against the Cardinals. What would the percent chance be that they (the Astros) would have won?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I think I have a spreadsheet for this!

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I do! Let me try to work this out

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say the Cardinals were a true-talent…95 win team

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s put the Astros at, I don’t know, 55

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I’m getting about 8-9%

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: If you use actual team records, it drops to 5-6%

10:33
Comment From ralph
Regarding that draft question, take a look at this study if you don’t mind linking to the competition: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

10:35
Comment From Boston Phan
Wait, is BsR a relative stat, not an absolute? Shouldn’t a player be able to add value running the bases on an absolute level, not just relative to peers?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: It’s runs above/below average

10:36
Comment From Conrad
Who is your favorite 4th OF? Someone who currently isn’t projected to start (but should make the big club form the get go)…one who could have a very nice season given the opportunity?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty sure I’m obligated to say Craig Gentry

10:37
Comment From James
What are the possible reasons that Jiminez and Santana have not been signed yet?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: QO + decreasingly high demands

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: also neither is really particularly good

10:37
Comment From Robbie
Do you think Brandon Phillips gets traded in 2014?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a non-zero chance he’s a Blue Jay in a month and a half

10:38
Comment From Dave
What is it, specifically, that has you so high on Brad Miller? I think you’re very High on Cory Kluber as well. Same Question. Thanks!

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Well, it’s also Steamer, ZiPS, Oliver, and the Fans

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Miller’s at least okay at basically everything which makes him a quality everyday shortstop. Fairly low ceiling, fairly high floor, good young regular and likely to be underrated

10:39
Comment From GoodasGoldy
Bigger influence on production. Ballpark or strength/weakness of division?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Ballpark

10:39
Comment From Perry
If you were to build a franchise from scratch, what would be most valuable to you: draft, player development, free agent acquisitions, any coach in the system, big league manager, mascot, other?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: If I actually knew how good everything was, I’d emphasize player development. That’s what I think is most critical. Now, the question is: how well can you evaluate actual player development systems?

10:40
Comment From Jake
Which translates better into MLB, NPB or AAA stats?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Probably AAA

10:41
Comment From Bret
Can you name a few surprise MVP candidates you see in 2014? One of mine is Jonathan Lucroy.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Edwin Encarnacion, Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward

10:43
Comment From Hamish
Who is the worst player (negative WAR?) ever traded for another player? (not cash!)

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know the actual answer, but in 2009 Yuniesky Betancourt was worth -2.4 WAR and that season he was traded for two half-decent pitching prospects

10:43
Comment From Dave
Springer’s chances of breaking camp with the ‘Stros?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty low, but good chance of showing up around June

10:44
Comment From Robinson Cano
This may sound crazy, but is it possible I’ll be undervalued in 2014?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, as stars usually are around the starts of their deals

10:44
Comment From Harry
Yankees infield on Opening Day?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: disgusting

10:45
Comment From Brian
What do you make of Matt Adams? As a Cardinals fan, I don’t love him even as much as my friends who aren’t Cards fans.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s not actually a special player, but he’s a fine player who’s young and cheap and that’s what gives him so much value as an asset

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Even with nothing else, he should be an above-average hitter who costs nothing for a while

10:47
Comment From SMC
Who is the worst (projected) everyday player at this point?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Whatever the Marlins are doing at first, whatever the Marlins are doing at third, or Ryan Goins

10:47
Comment From Average Sports Fan
If the Pirates gave Lambo the bigger slice of the 1b platoon, what would you expect out of him?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: 1+ WAR and lots of pretty exciting dingers

10:48
Comment From Paul
Of all the baseball players you’ve ever talked to, who is the (seemingly) most normal, every-day “Joe” – one who’d be the easiest to hang out with?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Brandon McCarthy or Michael Saunders

10:48
Comment From Sadwick
I remember Vlad golfing a home run from a pitch that literally got as low as his ankles. It felt like he was swinging a 3 wood.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I miss him so much :(

10:49
Comment From Guest
How many wins would you project the Mariners for if they signed Santana and/or Cruz?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: 83

10:50
Comment From clint h
was my boss’s strategy as follows? “if we make a QO to AJ Burnett, he accepts it with 90% probability and I have no money for SS or 1B or anything else”. If we don’t, we could always offer $14.0M later, or less, and likely get him on a 1 year deal.”

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think they genuinely felt like they didn’t have the money, and they didn’t think Burnett would go anywhere else

10:50
Comment From Ryan
Give me something positive about MIL…present and future

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Carlos Gomez

10:51
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Who would you sign to a bigger contract right now if he was a FA: Braun and his PED issues or Verlander and his mileage/core surgery issues?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Verlander

10:51
Comment From Rex
How is Hawkins closing games & not me???

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody’s closing games, it’s February

10:52
Comment From Lance
When the M’s signed Rodney I looked him up, and was surprised to see his FB velocity tick up in his age 35/36 seasons. Looks like it’s not unheard of, but what’s the explanation for something like this? Purely mechanical?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays probably made some little mechanical tweaks. No real sign of aging there with that guy

10:52
Comment From Robocles
So if WAR 0 is replacement level, what is the avg WAR in MLB? Is it still 0, or is it closer to 1 or 2 WAR? Does is even make sense to ask this question using a counting stat? Is there an avg WAR/600 PA or 200 innings?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: An average regular is worth somewhere around 2 – 2.5 WAR over a full season

10:52
Comment From Average Sports Fan
Re: Hamilton. Choo could at least hit. If Hamilton can’t handle the position defensively or offensively they have only Chris Heisey as a fallback. Man, the Reds depress me.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Their outfield situation sure has a lot of downside!

10:53
Comment From Paul
Are you a fan of the current Wild Card system? if not, what would you replace it with?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve become pretty happy with it. I’m content to embrace the madness since the playoffs were already kind of nuts.

10:53
Comment From Andy
Who would you rather have: Salazar or Sonny in 2014?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Salazar

10:53
Comment From Milwaukie Joe
If Portland was awarded an MLB team, where would be the best spot to build the ballpark?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: The proposal is right over there by the Moda Center and the VMC

10:55
Comment From Kerry
Who were your favorite players growing up?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Randy Johnson and no one else

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: although I liked Chris Hoiles for some reason

10:56
Comment From Sadwick
A good point about Uggla, but I just have a hard time believing someone as athletic as Upton has fallen apart so completely so quickly, while Uggla wouldn’t surprise me at all. It feels like Uggla’s last season was only propped up on retaining his power while Upton was bad in spite of his speed and athleticism remaining intact. Maybe I have a bias towards the faster guys or against the all power guys….

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I like Upton’s chances of being good more than I like Uggla’s, but if I had to pick just for 2014, I could see Uggla being better by a few tenths of a point. Still not good though, would be more about Upton just not rebounding enough

10:57
Comment From Matt
You have volcanoes, Eno has beer,Carson has poetry…what does Dave have?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: dog

10:57
Comment From Word
In a vacuum, with no other info available, would you rather know a hitter’s batting average or slugging average?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Slugging

10:58
Comment From Milwaukie Joe
Which Padres player has the best chance to outperform expetations by a significant amount?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Tyson Ross!

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I like Tyson Ross!

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: And you never really know with Cameron Maybin

10:58
Comment From Jake
The Yankees have several solid options for platooning at 2nd, SS, and 3rd. Why is there such skepticism that they can get ~2 WAR out of most all infield spots?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: The options aren’t good

10:59
Comment From 2ndHS
I meant Gallardo’s sinker, not slider. But yeah, he’s lost whiffs on all but slider, most notably his slider. Could it be that he can’t establish his fastball so he can get to his curve?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: As a fastball gets worse, sometimes everything gets worse, and Gallardo’s fastball got worse. There’s lots of reason for worry

10:59
Comment From Michael
Is losing Corey Luebke really that big of a deal for the Padres? Surely they werent counting on him that much for their season?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: A hypothetical healthy Luebke is a heck of a valuable starting pitcher. But he was never going to be 100% all season long, so in terms of actual effect on their playoff odds, it’s fairly low

11:00
Comment From Andrew
Do the Royals have a good enough core team in place to be competitive past James Shields’ departure next offseason?

11:01
Comment From BX
Is Price traded this offseason? If so, who do ya think to?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so anymore. I thought there was a chance Arizona would overpay, but I think the Rays are set and I don’t think anyone’s going to check in with an elite-level prospect on the table.

11:01
Comment From Danny
What PECOTA projected last place team has best chance to make playoffs: Rockies, Cubs, Marlins, Twins, Astros, Orioles?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Rockies

11:02
Comment From Flick-jibbet
Do you think it made more sense to extend Freeman long-term than Heyward or Simmons?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. Should probably see if Heyward can stay healthy first, and Simmons is under control for five years so there’s no rush there

11:03
Comment From Brian
The Cardinals have a lot of good young pitchers, but many fans are worried that the back-log could negatively effect some guys’ development. What bold/surprising move could the Cardinals make that would improve their roster without depleting too much talent?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no need to be bold or surprising. The Cardinals have a hell of a team with pretty much no holes, and they’re in a good position for both now and the future. Odds are they’ll find innings for all the close young pitchers of note, because the way things look on opening day is seldom the way things look in August and September

11:05
Comment From Grack Zeinke
I haven’t heard Alonso mentioned as a Pirates target (1B). That could be an under the radar thing tho. I don’t believe he was even mentioned in your piece yesterday. It’s not hard to see the Pads willing to move on from Alonso maybe sliding Banks over to 1B (he’s likely caught in a numbers crunch in the OF anyway).

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not sure Alonso even projects to be better than Lambo. He’s a mediocre player

11:06
Comment From gareth
Why is Tanaka going so much higher in drafts than abreu? Isn’t there risk of the unknown with both?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka seems a lot easier to project and I imagine people would rather have a good SP than a decent 1B

11:06
Comment From Grack Zeinke
With Brett Wallace being DFA’d, who is the Stros 1Bman on OD?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Jesus Guzman

11:06
Comment From Dylan
Couldn’t the Padres contend for a NL Wild Card? Thye seem as good as the Giant or Reds.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

11:07
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Do you think the Stros and/or Marlins could still make some FA additions? Santana would work in either (pitcher’s) park, and Drew is an obvious fit in MIA. The Marlins payroll is so ridiculously low how can they justify not spending more?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: No reason to give up a pick for either one of those guys

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Not when you’re a terrible team building to the future

11:08
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Why wouldn’t Burnett sign for more than 1/12M when he’s got no draft comp attached? He should be able to get 2/30M I’d think. Jays? Yanks? Phils?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: If he was this close to retirement, maybe he’s not interested in a multi-year contract. I don’t know what’s going on in his head.

11:09
Comment From Flick-jibbet
Why not have the Astros sign Cruz? That would be a relief for everyone.

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Why would the Astros give up a pick for a mediocre old corner outfielder?

11:09
Comment From Guest
Are more players likely to take the QO next yr?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll probably see at least one do it

11:09
Comment From gareth
Maholm and Arroyo. Such similarity, such disparities. …………….

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Maholm might be perceived to have a health issue and teams really highly value durability

11:10
Comment From Guest
Is the clubhouse confidential on the mlb site to watch?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like they don’t upload clips anymore, I’m afraid

11:10
Comment From gareth
Cleveland has no chance this season, right?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: What?

11:10
Comment From GoodasGoldy
Do you see a risk for teams with PCL AAA affiliates letting their top prospects spend more than a half season there?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: I am not a fan of player development in extreme ballpark environments but it doesn’t *not* work. It’s simply an extra variable

11:13
Comment From Guest
Is Wade Davis your pick for worst starting pitcher likely to start the year in a rotation?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Tom Koehler or one of the Astros

11:14
Comment From Z
If you’re starting a team in 2015 and can choose one of Buxton and Bogaerts, who would it be?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts, because he’s actually big-league ready

11:14
Comment From Justin
Do you think the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl will change the expectations of the Mariners this year? It seems like a team built for mediocrity, and I wonder if the fans will accept that the way they might have otherwise.

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Fans haven’t accepted the Mariners for years. Now they just have something positive to think about if the baseball team is bad again.

11:15
Comment From Word
Do you prefer Winter Olympics or Summer?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: the winter olympics have hockey in them

11:15
Comment From Herb
Are players going to steal more now that power is seemingly becoming harder to find?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Stolen bases just dropped by more than 500 between 2012-2013

11:16
Comment From j6takish
Fans seem to get angry when a team that squeaks into the playoffs ends up winning the series, How boring would it be if the best team won every year?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no point in having a playoff system where you can predict the winner. If we ever perfect our predictions, sports will be ruined

11:17
Comment From Prich
The next volcano to erupt in the United States will be _____________ located in ______________.

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Kilauea has been erupting forever

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: And shit’s usually going off somewhere in remote Alaska

11:17
Comment From Brian
Whoa – is there any real chance or Portland getting an MLB team? Regardless, what would be your top choices (2-3) for the team’s nickname? My top two are the Portland MicroBrewers and Portland Greenies

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Swifts

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: It’s perfect.

11:18
Comment From Mike
Yawn

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Mike’s bored, I better close up

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks everybody for hanging out! It’s been another 2+ hours!

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for all the questions I didn’t or couldn’t address, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday. Until then, be well and have great days




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


One Response to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/11/14”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. benagain123 says:

    lets get ready to sullivan

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current ye@r *