Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/4/14

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. The usual!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: This is probably going to be my shortest chat ever. Will have to wrap up in time to get ready for a Clubhouse Confidential bit

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully there’s nothing to talk about!

9:06
Comment From _David_
Okay Mariners, now that I know what that feels like, YOUR TURN.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: And it won’t be as good no matter what because now the Seahawks have broken the curse!

9:07
Comment From Guest
Who gets Bonafacio?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just pile everybody on the Yankees

9:07
Comment From Cochise
Is Oliver more optimistic and Steamer more pessimistic or realistic?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Oliver is kind of insane with some minor leaguers and fielding projections

9:07
Comment From Beeg Mon
Can we please avoid talking about how late you are? It’s just boring by now (and I usually find you very funny!)… :(

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to be one of those things where it goes from funny to annoying to obnoxious to funny again

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I hope

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: This is why I usually chat for like 150 minutes

9:09
Comment From Gson
Heyward’s signing.. should the Braves have pushed for his arb and at least one or two more years?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Who’s to say that they didn’t?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: You see a guy that young and that good and of course you want to cheaply buy out some free-agent seasons but we seldom really know how negotiations actually proceeded and maybe Heyward didn’t want to make that commitment yet

9:10
Comment From Dancing Derk
Can you put a numerical amount on how much teams value their draft picks?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: It’s something I’m always thinking about, but then again it’s also not easy since every team is in position to make a different sacrifice. So it’s not like you can just calculate an average market value of a pick. I’d say you approach eight figures as you approach the earlier and earlier bits of the first round

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Toward the back of the first round you’re probably looking at something more like $4-6 million

9:12
Comment From john
Aldemys Diaz. Mets possibility?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Possibility but to my knowledge they haven’t yet been linked

9:13
Comment From CMR
Jeff! Is it worth making toast by any means other than in a toaster?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: french toast

9:13
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Oh man, look at me, I’m Jeff Sullivan and I’m going to be on Clubhouse Confidential.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: And I’ll be talking about something other than what I believed I would be talking about!

9:14
Comment From Dave
Should we know where the FA pitchers are going at the end of the week, or will this drag on into ST?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously some of them will drag into ST but the bigger names should make decisions soon with their prices slipping. This week makes for a fine guess. But then Lohse didn’t sign until March 25…

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Capuano might have to wait for injuries. Santana/Jimenez shouldn’t have to do that

9:15
Comment From John Stamos
On a scale from 1 to Baseball, what is your favorite sport to watch in April?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: NHL

9:15
Comment From Art Vandelay
Do you think we can expect a little bit of a bounce back year from Pujols?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely. I am. Not going to be vintage Pujols but he ought to be a lot healthier than he was for most of last summer

9:16
Comment From Grack Zeinke
do you think the M’s can do both Cruz and Rodney?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:16
Comment From Guest
Just for exercise, say the current league-wide philosophy is to have a heavy dose of groundball/high K pitchers. Do teams then start attempting to acquire hitters that stats indicate are better at hitting such pitchers? I’m wondering if there are macro-like adjustments that get overlooked.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Well, you’re not going to change the pool of available hitters, right?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: The same players will exist. Some might happen to end up in increasing demand, but ultimately the same players will be spread around to the same teams. Can’t just conjure up more players who can hit groundballing/strikeouty pitchers.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Additionally and relatedly, I suspect you’d have to see a pretty strong trend before teams make a point of responding to it. The default will always be “get good players” no matter what’s going on league-wide

9:19
Comment From Guest
Andrew Baggarly ranked the Padres the worst pitching staff in the NL West. He’s joking, right?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Our Steamer projections have them as second-worst and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Baggarly were a little more optimistic about guys like Cain and Lincecum

9:20
Comment From Compton
Where will I be able to find a video of your Clubhouse Confidential appearance?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: No idea. Sometimes they get uploaded to MLB.com, sometimes it’s like they never happened

9:21
Comment From Nick
Which international import is more likely to win AL Rookie of the Year? Abreu or Tanaka?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka by a crazy margin

9:21
Comment From Gson
Beyond the boxscore has defined prospects in a column by Chris St John by K %, BB % and age at levels. He has stated he will incorporate ISO as a means to impart power into the projection. Do you agree with the approach?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to miss a lot.

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Noble attempt but there’s no substitute for observation because sometimes there are raw tools that simply haven’t translated yet and those players can’t be ignored

9:23
Comment From Cochise
Will Cruz get a Figgins type deal from the Mariners?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not sniffing four years

9:23
Comment From John Stamos
Do you ever use PECOTA?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not anymore

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: No point. All projections are more or less alike

9:24
Comment From Dave
What exactly does the Mariners lineup look like if they sign Cruz? They’ve got 5 guys for 3 positions

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Cruz to right, Smoak/Morrison/Hart to split 1B/DH, Ackley in center, Saunders in left

9:25
Comment From Jack
Steamer clearly hasn’t realized B. Gardner is playing LF this year….will this be fixed?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: You can adjust it a few runs in your head

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: It is meaningful that Gardner just had a 0 UZR in full-time CF

9:26
Comment From Brad
Do any of the MLB Network analysts agree with Kenney’s sabermetric ideas or do they just look upon him with disdain?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: more like fascination

9:27
Comment From Art Vandelay
Do you think Prince Fielder can hit 40+ home runs in Arlington?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Sure can! Especially if you give him hundreds of games

9:27
Comment From Dancing Derk
who has a better year: Santana, Garza or Jiminez

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Garza

9:28
Comment From Mike
Jeff – which, in your opinion is the more useless stat, pitcher wins or ice hockey goalie wins?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Pitcher wins

9:28
Comment From John Stamos
If you could wake up every morning snuggling with one MLB player, who would it be?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Clayton Kershaw because his wallet would be nearby and he seems like he’s generous

9:28
Comment From StevePete
Chances Trout gets an extension from the Angels after opening day??

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Come back next winter

9:30
Comment From Dancing Derk
do you think players will request in their contracts to not be tied to compensation? like Beltran with the Giants

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t allowed — it’s laid out explicitly in the CBA

9:32
Comment From Boston Phan
Do you think Scherzer will sign an extension soon? Do you think he aims higher than he would have given what Kershaw signed for? They can’t pay him more than Verlander, right?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Keep in mind that Verlander got 7/$180m, but the first two years were valued at $20m as per his previous contract. So he basically got 5/$140m in “new money”

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Scherzer’s getting $28m AAV

9:34
Comment From Guest
Rotowire says: “Lagares, based on manager Terry Collins’ comments Thursday, could start 2014 in a platoon or possibly at Triple-A Las Vegas, ESPN New York reports.” Goes on to explain Duda needs to get at bats. How foolish is this?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Let something happen before you get mad about it

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Lagares still seems in line for plenty of time

9:35
Comment From Ethan
What’s a fair return for the Red Sox for Mike Carp if they decide to trade him?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: decent high-A pitching prospect

9:36
Comment From RotoLando
Puig hitting leadoff? Is that crazy?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: What part of that would be crazy? Puig’s good. Good players should bat more. Leadoff hitters bat more.

9:36
Comment From STiVo
Under the AL’s rules, can the Yankees DH for Brendan Ryan and allow their pitcher to hit? CC is a pretty good hitter.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: no :(

9:37
Comment From Art Vandelay
If a player gets an invite to Spring Training, do they also have to be placed on the 40 man roster?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Nope, not unless they make the team. Everybody loads up on minor-league contracts with NRIs because there’s no real downside — they’re just tryouts

9:37
Comment From Guest
Always thought “Clubhouse Confidential” was a weird title. Wouldn’t “Front Office Confidential” be more accurate?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I was just thinking about this last night. I don’t really understand what they were going for

9:38
Comment From Grack Zeinke
don’t you think that Cruz is much better fit in cozier park? going to Seattle seems like a poor fit and could easily see him imploding there.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not really how park factors work but I do agree that Nelson Cruz is a poor fit in most places

9:38
Comment From Kris
You know what would make placing a value on draft picks easier? Allowing them to be traded!

9:38
Comment From Guest
Is a pitcher’s hitting included in the FG WAR leaderboards?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: It’s separate, but it’s available if you click on batters instead of pitchers

9:39
Comment From _David_
I was thinking we could better measure sharpness of contact by measuring the angle off the bat as well as where it hits the bat…Is this basically hitFX?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: HITf/x also has batted-ball velocity. It’s pretty great! Really you just need hit location and hangtime

9:40
Comment From ChrisFromBothell
Do you have some crazy-obscure, deeply wonky football stat ready to go when you get asked the inevitable “how about them Seahawks” on Clubhouse Confidential in a little bit?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: they won the super bowl by 35 points

9:40
Comment From Evan
Could the A’s moves for Johnson and Gregerson be to keep players like Doolittle and Cook out of the closer role so their arbitration prices will be lower in the next few years? It seems likely the arb costs of “proven closers” will be astronomical after the Kimbrel case is settled.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not why they made those moves, but I’m certain it’s something they’ve thought about as a coincidental upside. It really could save them some millions of dollars

9:42
Comment From jaybooster
What are your thoughts on the Jays being what they were supposed to be last year, and doing it in 2014. I feel after a full year of all the pieces playing together is like a very positive synergy for the team.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: They’re a contender that could really use a 2B and another SP. Probably the fourth-best team in the division right now but it’s tight and when the situation is that tight it doesn’t take a lot of luck to emerge as a winner

9:43
Comment From ChrisFromBothell
I expect that for all practical purposes the winter’s over and no really interesting deals will happen. What are the most significant and/or stunning offseason deals, over the past few years, that have happened 3 weeks or less from the start of spring training? (This might be an article idea rather than a good q.)

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Prince Fielder signed on 1/25

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Kyle Lohse signed at the end of March

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Vernon Wells got traded last March?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Jeremy Guthrie got traded for Jason Hammel/Matt Lindstrom in February 2012

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Usually gets pretty quiet before all the waiver moves at the end of ST but obviously this year there are an awful lot of players left

9:47
Comment From Guest
you know what would be neat? how much WAR a scout has contributed to an organization based on his player evaluations. i know some of them are slam dunks (ARod out of highschool), but what about guys like Albert Pujols etc??? has anyone done anything like this?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Good luck assigning responsibility for player acquisitions! And then how do you separate scouting from player development? It’s a good idea that requires an awful lot more thought in order to do it correctly, and it would be almost impossible to execute

9:48
Comment From Guest
Ever get the feeling Reds ownership is the guy at the dance that is trying to ask that pretty girl for a song, but keeps heading to the snack table to eat some pretzels…..

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re trying to ask any pretty girls for a song

9:49
Comment From Steve
Was the Pirates not offering Burnett a QO a huge mistake?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: If they genuinely couldn’t afford it, that would be one thing, but right now it doesn’t look so wise

9:49
Comment From Brad
I saw Cameron on it last night. It was by phone and it had his picture. He looks like a curmudgeon. Is he?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Dave is one of the more positive people I know

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Just yesterday I talked to him about something kind of important and he lifted my spirits in an instant. He’s delightful!

9:50
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Am I a terrible baseball fan for bemoaning a possible Red Sox reunion with Stephen Drew because it’d move Bogaerts off SS and screw my fantasy team maybe eventually? (As a redsox fan I do have to admit they are a better/deeper squad w/ Drew in the fold).

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say terrible baseball fan. Maybe uninteresting baseball fan

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: but there’s no such thing as a terrible sports fan. Be a fan however you like

9:51
Comment From A. Lane
If a pitcher has significant splits, K% and BB%, base empty versus men on base, should not that show up with a negative the LOB WAR? League average is for K% rate to decrease and BB% to increase from the stretch, but what about the guys with significant splits? Does it not become an issue if K and BB rates are stable across the different leverage categories?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: What if a pitcher changes his style with men on base, walking more and striking out less but limiting extra-base damage? Basically, what if a pitcher is Tom Glavine?

9:52
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Padres make the playoffs?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:52
Comment From Guest
Since AJ Burnett decided not to retire, are the Pirates in the running for his services?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: They’re a finalist, but rumor has it the Orioles are super highly interested

9:54
Comment From Greg
What could Joey Votto have gotten on the open market this offseason had he not been extended?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Less. He signed when he was more of a power guy. Now he’s just a super good 30-year-old first baseman. He wouldn’t get a Robinson Cano commitment

9:55
Comment From Seff Jullivan
Is Chris Davis an .850 OPS guy who got lucky? A 1.000 OPS guy? Or something in between?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Probably more like 130-140 wRC+ than 167

9:56
Comment From Average Baltimore Fan
Why do the O’s hate their fans?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Ever met an average sports fan?

9:56
Comment From Colin Valencic (CLE)
With Harpers, Trouts and Strasburgs quick journey to the majors have you seen a change in how farm systems are developing young, high picked players to try and get them to the majors quicker? any concerns with this?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: When you have a selection of the best talents ever you’re going to see rapid advancement because there’s just no real need for those players to stay in the minors for long. I don’t think they’re going to be indicators of a widespread general trend — I think it’s just that the best players rise fast because they prove themselves fast

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I do think teams might be less worried about “unproven” players than ever before

10:00
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
If you could build an MLB team from the entire organizational talent pool of any 3 teams which ones would it be?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Hmm

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox, Cardinals, Pirates?

10:00
Comment From Dancing Derk
which rookie will make the biggest impact?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka!

10:01
Comment From Guest
Are you a fan of Brian Kenny?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I like him a hell of a lot more than I like Mitch Williams

10:02
Comment From Dave B
I know we say every year that Spring Training stats don’t matter, but it always seems like one or two guys win spots on the big league club with a good Spring. Are we under-valuing those spring stats, compared to the actual teams?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: The actual teams don’t care about stats and care more about performance. There’s a correlation there, of course, but players can open eyes in spring, even if the numbers don’t necessarily reflect it. Guys can show legitimate improvements

10:02
Comment From Dave
What is your preferred projection system?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Whatever’s available. Steamer or ZiPS are fine. There’s not much difference between them all

10:04
Comment From ChrisFromBothell
Would you be in favor of reducing spring training down to perhaps 2 weeks total, and starting the season earlier and in warm-weather / indoor stadia, if it meant the postseason would start in September and the World Series could be over no later than first week of October?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: That might be too much of a reduction, but I don’t think anybody would argue with a shorter spring training, players included. The last, I don’t know, two weeks are almost entirely pointless

10:05
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
something I noticed about the depth charts: “The Others” in each bullpen are credited w/ the same periphs regardless of park such that “The Others” put up positive WAR in Coors over say 40ip but negative WAR in pitcher’s parks over the same # of IP….just a small nuance of those projections that may be a bit misleading

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks, I’ll pass this along

10:05
Comment From Dave B
Better 2014 – Tai Walker or Matt Moore?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: push

10:06
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
re Chris St. John’s work: If you could know only one thing about an (offensive) prospect wouldn’t you want to know about contact/plate discipline profile first and foremost?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’d want to know about relative age first

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: But the point isn’t that the information is unhelpful. The point is that there’s a lot more to prospects than one or two or three numbers and no statistical system is going to capture everything that ought to be captured

10:07
Comment From Dom
Cruz, Rodney, and Santana.. waste of money, but these 3 put the Mariners into ________ contention.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: fringe

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: and they’re not signing all three

10:08
Comment From Jon
Seriously, when do the Blue Jays sign Jimenez?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Thursday?

10:08
Comment From Colin Valencic(CLE)
Best Al team?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I lean Red Sox

10:08
Comment From Dave B
Ever looked at players whose WPA beat their WAR year after year? Or greatest difference between them in a single season? Does that give you a picture of a guy that is more than the sum of his parts?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: WPA doesn’t say a peep about defense

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: But you can mess around with the Clutch statistic if you want. it’s interesting over big samples

10:09
Comment From Flink
Is there a perception in the industry that Capuano is a leper? Why isn’t he with the Astros by now?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Two Tommy John surgeries and a bit of a dinger issue. He’s interesting but he’s not so interesting you need to rush out and nab him before anybody else does

10:11
Comment From Seff Jullivan
Couldn’t players start requesting 1 year mutual options at the end of their contracts as a way to skirt around compensation?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo Jimenez voided a mutual option and the Indians still extended him a qualifying offer

10:12
Comment From Dave B
Do you think there will ever be a billion dollar contract in MLB?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Sure will

10:12
Comment From Jack
That cuban catcher…Nats?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: From what I can tell he’s not actually much of a prospect

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I guess that doesn’t necessarily answer your question

10:13
Comment From Ed
Can we expect Nelson Cruz to put up Richie Sexson type numbers if he signs in Seattle? Better than that?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Richie Sexson’s first year in Seattle came with a 144 wRC+

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Cruz hasn’t come close to that since 2010

10:13
Comment From Flick-jibbet
Is Mt. Lassen extinct?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: heavens no!

10:14
Comment From Flick-jibbet
Why are there so few fast outfielder/decent base stealing types with a clue about the strike zone? Isn’t it funny that players like deShields, Oscar Gamble, Billy Burns, Hamilton…can’t draw a walk?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury? Trout? McCutchen? Crisp? Choo?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: But if there is anything to it, perhaps faster players are more willing to go out of the zone to put a ball in play because they can beat out grounders

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Also faster players tend to be weaker hitters and weaker hitters don’t get thrown as many balls

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Also, you know, Rickey Henderson…

10:16
Comment From Slick
Are the Rangers faking interest in Cruz in order to trick the M’s into signing Cruz?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: No, the Rangers would probably love to have him back for one season

10:17
Comment From Joe
Can you explain why many people try to claim PEDs had no impact on HR numbers? Using ISO and HR/FB ratios while assuming PEDs had no impact on contact percentages seems lazy no?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Contact percentage has hardly changed for years. The strike zone has gotten bigger, leading to more called strikes, leading to more strikeouts, leading to fewer pitches hit

10:18
Comment From nobleisthyname
Do you know if the Edge% statistic will be released for public use anytime in the near future?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. Last I’ve seen is 2012 data

10:19
Comment From Royal Farm
Will the approach of the Pirates and O’s spending little in FA actually pay off by saving to keep younger, homegrown talent in the fold when their contracts are up?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I do think people get too upset over a team basically sitting out free agency. Free agency is where teams get the worst values!

10:20
Comment From Gila Monster
Is the lack of uniformity in the sabermetrics community a problem? bWAR,fWAR,VORP. wOBA,TAv..etc.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I suppose it would be nice to have more agreement but I don’t think it’s meaningfully holding us back from anything

10:20
Comment From Dave
Pujols now have the worst contract in baseball?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: That’s my sense

10:20
Comment From Grack Zeinke
can you expand on your cryptic answer regarding Cruz playing half his games in cavernous Safeco?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: All hitters do better in hitter-friendly parks and all hitters do worse in pitcher-friendly parks. With park factors, we can adjust for these things. Is there any reason to believe Cruz will be particularly destroyed by Safeco Field? If not, then it’s no worry

10:22
Comment From Boston Phan
It feels like a fair number of FG writers are down on Ervin Santana. My memory could be faulty, but the most common reason I see given is that he was a scrap-heap pick-up just a year ago. But if you look at the past three years, 2011 and 2013 are very similar and 2012 looks like the anomalous year (low LOB% and high HR/FB). Perhaps he really is a 2.5-3 win pitcher?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically an average-ish starter. I dont’ think people are down on him because they think he sucks — I think it’s a response to how laughable it was that he initially wanted nine figures

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Also it’s a response to Ervin being considered maybe the cream of the remaining crop

10:23
Comment From Jeff
If Archie Bradley and Tanaka throw the same amount of innings, who has the better season?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka

10:23
Comment From Guest
Who will get an NHL franchise 1st Portland or Seattle?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Seattle

10:23
Comment From Dave B
Of all the top free agents left, Santana, Jimenez, Drew, Cruz, Rodney, Morales, etc. Which is the last to sign… and where?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Morales. Guess I’ll still have to lean Orioles?

10:23
Comment From Dave B
Have you ever asked a Mariners player for his autograph?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not since I was a child

10:23
Comment From Ringtone Composer
Burnett is a high-K, high-groundball-rate pitcher. Good for Camden Yards, right?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Good for everywhere

10:24
Comment From Mark
What is better, in your opinion: NHL or Olympic Hockey?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: The average Olympic game > the average NHL game

10:25
Comment From Jake
The Brewers are 15+ under .500 by the All Star game. What does a Aramis Ramirez to NYY trade look like?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez –> Yankees, A-ball prospect or two –> Brewers

10:25
Comment From chuckb
No such thing as a horrible fan? I was at a SB party when another person showed up in a Texans jersey & a Bengals hat yelled expletives at the TV, pounded his fists, and yelled homophobic epithets at the referees. Horrible fan!

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: that’s just a horrible person

10:26
Comment From Dave
So, is Spring Training work, or more like vacation?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: For players?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Mindless work

10:27
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Is it possible that the new CBA’s restrictions on amateur talent $$$ coupled with the decline of impact talent in FA could lead to unprecedented parity?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Couldn’t you argue just the opposite of that?

10:28
Comment From Guest
Is there any benefit to averaging together multiple projection systems?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: That would probably yield the best projection, by like a tenth of a percentage point or whatever

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: The differences are practically negligible

10:29
Comment From Bizarro Jerry
If you could start from scratch career wise would you rather be successful baseball writer or successful volcanologist?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: If I could already be established, I’d probably go volcanologist, but like hell am I putting myself through the meat grinder of 21st Century academia

10:29
Comment From Jon
I appreciate the saber stats, but I don’t always understand them. Where can I find out how to put my players into context with league average for things like wOBA, WAR, FIP, etc. Also, what are league average LD% and other batted ball percentages?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Here you are! http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sorry you guys but I need to get going. Prep work to do before show, plus other responsibilities

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, I’m sorry for all the questions I didn’t or couldn’t address, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time. Until then, be well and have great days.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: #GoHawks




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


7 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/4/14”

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  1. mauro1 says:

    When ifs fangraphs plus coming out for the year?

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  2. Sully says:

    How do you project Jose Fernandez for this season only?

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  3. Eric F says:

    Do you think Drew will go back to the Sox? I don’t see how they can let him go with all the question marks on the left side for them. Bogaerts is 21, and no matter how good he looks, prospects are never a sure thing, and Middlebrooks has 1 good year and 1 bad year. I think the Sox need Drew for 2 years just as insurance until some of their left side prospects are ready for the Show.

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  4. Mike says:

    Please post chat start times.

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  5. Chuck says:

    Pretty sure your wrong about the DH question. Back in the late 80s (87/88) I seem to recall Billy Martin DHing someone whom I cant recall for Rafael Santana at SS and allowing Rick Rhoden P to bat in the lineup.

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