Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/25/14

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends and others!

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I can already tell this chat is going to be littered with questions about Nick Franklin and Didi Gregorius.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: So we’ll deal with that on a case-by-case basis. I’ll also have you know it’s my intention to chat for less time than usual, because today will be an unusually busy day outside of this.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: So I’ll try to chat a little faster to make up for the reduced duration

9:02
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Mets just sent Dice-K to minors…you think Mejia gets the 5th spot now?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Looking that way to me. Which means a temporary delay in jerking him around!

9:03
Comment From XanderFan
Thoughts on Chris Archer? Likely to take the next step forward this year? Regress?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not in love. I’m expecting a similar performance with more runs allowed

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: In my grand experiment, I get all the Rays pitching performances with league-average pitch-framers

9:04
Comment From disco derk
how about a Uggla for Romero swap?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s specify the Romero here

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: But for the time being the Braves actually seem somewhat content with Uggla

9:05
Comment From MG Vernon
Who should leadoff for the Mariners?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Brad Miller but I’m a bigger fan of Almonte than perhaps I ought to be

9:06
Comment From Stephen
Jason Kipnis. Is he worth all the fuss?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: You mean the four-win second baseman? He’s worth a considerable amount of fuss

9:06
Comment From kramer
team you think is going to be better than their projected wins?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: and Dodgers

9:06
Comment From Texas Tornado
Hi Jeff. Happy Tuesday! Thoughts on Tanner Scheppers as a starting pitcher?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Overrated by our projection systems who don’t know how to adjust a relief pitcher into a starting pitcher!

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say he’s even wowed me as a reliever to date. I trust the Rangers for the most part with their pitcher conversions but I don’t expect Scheppers to be much more than a hard-throwing No. 4

9:08
Comment From Mac
Standard 12 team H2H… Jose Altuve or Jose Reyes?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: FANTASY QUESTION

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: JOSE REYES

9:09
Comment From Jake
Let’s just get this out of the way, what does a Gregorious to NYY trade look like?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: They say Arizona wants a big-league-ready starting pitcher. The Yankees don’t have a ton to spare, but maybe you start by talking about Phelps or Nuno

9:10
Comment From Bret
Do you have any more insights this week on why the Jays are going to make Ryan Goins their 2B than you had last week, or the week before, or the week before, or the week before, or the we

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I’m currently what you might call “shocked”. I refuse to believe this remains the actual plan but the closer we get the less time there is to adjust. There are still players to be moved around so it’s not like the Jays CAN’T make a deal before Opening Day, but it’s looking less likely and you better hope Goins is like a +20 defender or something

9:11
Comment From juan pierres mustache
oh MAN i have been looking for the hot internet spot to learn about mid-tier shortstop transaction news

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately there’s nothing new to learn!

9:12
Comment From Ted the Bear
If healthy all season, can Brett Anderson be a top 60-70 starting pitcher this year at Coors?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: The guy with the mid-3 career FIP and xFIP?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but. That’s Brett Anderson for you. “Yes, but-”

9:12
Comment From Guest
Erik Bedard vs Scott Baker?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Bedard’s better at this point

9:14
Comment From Whistlers Mother
How will teams go about managing innings limits for Danny Salazar, Alex Wood, and Nate Eovaldi?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Salazar is already being handled carefully and I expect the Indians might take advantage of a few off days to skip him. Wood could spend time in the bullpen depending on who returns to the Braves rotation. Eovaldi, I’m less sure, and he exceeded 150 innings just a couple years ago. He might be taken care of by his own injury issues

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Eovaldi could probably throw 170-180 frames if his arm doesn’t hurt

9:16
Comment From Kevin
With Corey Hart the DH, which OF loses out on playing time the most – Saunders, Almonte, Morrison?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Morrison’s in an unfortunate place. Which is probably good for the Mariners. I was worried they were going to jettison Saunders for nothing

9:16
Comment From Jake
To what extent will having Fangraphs+ give me existential satisfaction beyond a typical fangraphs account?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: 7

9:17
Comment From kevinthecomic
So, how bad are Lombardozzi, Perez, Suarez and Worth that the Tigers chose Gonzalez and Romine over them??? Kinda suggests that they have no plans for Perez and Suarez, doesn’t it?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Would you have plans for them?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t have plans for them.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Omar Vizquel seems to be high on Gonzalez. I wish them all the luck.

9:18
Comment From Jay
What do you think Sizemore can do if he wins the Red Sox CF job?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Play well and have people fall in love with him

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: At this point it looks like Sizemore’s winning the job. I don’t want to get ahead of myself. I just want to appreciate that we are where we are, with him, in 2014

9:19
Comment From TJ
Please tell me everything you know about Gregorius & Franklin! ASAP! …or you can talk a little about what impact Grady Sizemore & Matt Kemp will have on their teams’ playoff chances this season…that’s fine too.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Well, the Dodgers are kind of already a virtual playoff lock, so Kemp won’t mean all that much. Sizemore has given the Red Sox Jackie Bradley insurance and if he’s legitimately good again, for a while, then it gives Boston an extra leg up on Tampa Bay

9:20
Comment From disco derk
what do you realistically expect out of Jeter?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: 1 WAR

9:21
Comment From Catoblepas
Doing some reading about probability and forecasting, and I was wondering how you feel about PECOTA offering the 10th- through 90th-percentile projections for each year? Worthwhile, helpful, something more systems should do?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: More systems should offer ranges, but with PECOTA, the ranges are so huge I don’t think people know at all what to make of them. You’re talking about floor –> ceiling and for any given player that’s going to be like 5-6 wins or something

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Systems should have a projection volatility rating, or something. I don’t think a system benefits from showing the mean +/- multiple standard deviations

9:22
Comment From Guest
Profar thoughts?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Unlucky for him, unlucky for the Rangers, lucky for the Angels. But I wasn’t projecting Profar to be an impact player in 2014 so the Rangers could’ve lost a more damaging asset

9:22
Comment From Serious Scientist
If Nick Franklin and Didi Gregorious were sent by rocket ship to study volcanic activity on Io, the moon of Jupiter, should the Mariners or DBacks try to rekindle trade talks for Price?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Rays aren’t trading Price until next offseason, at this point

9:23
Comment From Guest
What the chance that Marcus Semien gets 500 or more ABs?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Low!

9:23
Comment From Clayton
Good morning! What do you think about Votto’s approach this year and what effect it’ll have on his numbers?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get more selective and I think it’ll help him stave off statistical decline

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Votto’s in a position to get *better*, aside from the return of some power as his leg improves. But he can stay away from pitches that increasingly give him trouble, and that’ll help him a decent amount

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I love, incidentally, that Votto is going to *tighten up* his strike zone. Just a big ol F-U to the critical observers

9:25
Comment From Ron
Juan Francisco has value if he lands a starting DH spot in the AL?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Juan Francisco has a career 0.5 WAR

9:25
Comment From JohnnyP
Would you rather start Chirinos or Arencibia behind the plate?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: *sigh*

Arencibia :(

9:25
Comment From KJ
Thoughts on news that Jaso is to be starter vs righties? Right call?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Right call if he can handle it but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Vogt and then Jaso at DH if Jaso has issues or if Barton doesn’t hit

9:26
Comment From Switters
Is the Reyes hammy news as heartbreaking for you as for me? He’e like the the M. Alou of SS, money when he plays, which is rarely.

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Two years ago he played in 160 games

9:27
Comment From Stephen
What do you take for Jed Lowrie over/under on 105 games played this season? He’s only ever made it to 100 games once (ONCE!) in his major league career.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: And that was last season! Injuries are hard to predict. I figure Lowrie will beat that estimate

9:27
Comment From _David_
Lloyd McClendon said he thinks Justin Smoak can be a 100 RBI guy, so I guess things aren’t that bad for the Mariners, huh?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Lloyd McClendon thinks Justin Smoak can lead major-league baseball in doubles

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Last year Justin Smoak had 19 doubles

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: And he runs like the piano on his back has a piano on its back

9:28
Comment From obama
is this the real cingrani we are seeing in spring training or can we expect last year’s wunderkind?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: The question being, what’s more important, 17 spring training innings, or 105 regular-season innings?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Expect last year’s performance, minus a few percentage points

9:29
Comment From Jared T.
So now that Scott Baker has been released from the M’s, what does their rotation look like (other than “ugly”)? Felix/Paxton/Wolf/Ramirez/Beavan?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Possibly Roenis Elias for Beavan, whoever he is. But remember the last two are only very temporary

9:29
Comment From Theres No Place Like Home
How far off am I when predicting Yordano Ventura to win AL ROY?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Probably pretty far on account of the whole Bogaerts/Tanaka thing

9:30
Comment From Morty
Assuming Pineda wins a spot in the rotation, how do you think he’ll do this year?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Adequate, occasionally dominant, but I don’t know that the velocity’s ever coming back, which accelerates his probable need for a third pitch

9:31
Comment From Chris
Will Matt Cain bounce back?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: All that really happened is that he allowed a few extra dingers

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not really worried about Matt Cain going forward in the least

9:33
Comment From Todd
This is sort of a fantasy question/gripe but why do teams wait to put players on the DL in preseason? What is the advantage to not having Hamels, etc on DL if they will miss time?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: You can only put players on the DL as of a certain date later in March

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: So already there’s something built in. But my understanding is that date has passed, so I don’t know why certain teams might be delaying. There must be a reason I don’t see and it probably has something to do with money

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I guess what would be the advantage of having Hamels on the DL today? What does it matter, if the Phillies don’t even have an active roster yet?

9:36
Comment From Rick
Thoughts on Yordano Ventura & Taijuan Walker? They gonna light it up this year or are we gonna need to hold our collective breath until 2015?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: For as exciting as Ventura is, he hasn’t quite been a strikeout machine. And Walker has inconsistent fastball command and a developing breaking ball. They’re going to be fascinating for much of the summer, but they’re unlikely to be consistently awesome

9:38
Comment From Chuck
Im thinkin’ Gerrit Cole gets to the next level, alongside the likes of Strausberg, Scherzer, Waino et al. Comment?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Cole was already on that level in the second half. I’d say it would be unwise to count on him to be an ace, but if he were to pitch like an ace, it wouldn’t be surprising.

9:39
Comment From Jake
All else equal, if a true talent .300 wOBA batter faces a .350 wOBA against pitcher, what is the expected wOBA of that PA? What about a .350 wOBA batter V. .300 wOBA pitcher? What is the general equation here? Dan recommended odds tables

9:40
9:41
Comment From Gabe
I feel like Dillon Gee for Gregorius would be a fair deal, but neither side wants this, apparently. Am I crazy?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Gee isn’t offering a whole lot in the way of surplus value moving forward. He’s adequate, but the DBacks would probably be looking for something either younger or better

9:42
Comment From Mac
Does Erasmo Ramirez’s spring stats a sign of what’s to come once the games count?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be what he ought to be: strike-thrower, some missed bats, some dingers, elbow concerns

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: You know what he could be like? Old, familiar Scott Baker

9:43
Comment From R. Velarde
When do you see Gausman joining the rotation this year? Do you consider it a mistake that they don’t start him in the rotation to begin the season?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Late May? I understand why the Orioles don’t want to bump anyone in the current starting staff but it shouldn’t be long before it’s clear that Gausman is one of their top five starters

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe top two starters

9:43
Comment From Guest
Thanks for the chat Jeff. A GM of a team you use to blog about mentioned at one point about wanting 3 LHP in his bullpen. Your thought on how that pen could work with that many LH pitchers?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: You hope that two of them can pitch to right-handed hitters

9:44
Comment From Stephen
What do you consider to be the most utterly crazy bold prediction you’ve seen so far this past few weeks?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t read predictions!

9:44
Comment From Nick
Thoughts on Nieto making the jump to majors to be the White Sox backup catcher?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: They were already projected to have the worst catchers in baseball so it’s not like this can really hurt them too bad

9:45
Comment From Guest
What are you expecting from Dominic Brown in 2014

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: 2 WAR

9:46
Comment From kramer
why do people talk about height? doesn’t make more sense to list the height at the shoulder rather than the top of the head?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Not if you want to know how tall something is

9:46
Comment From Sonny Gray Real Estate
Better year: Yordano Ventura or Drew Smyly

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: push

9:46
Comment From Sally
Is Taylor Jordan’s pitch arsenal good enough to take and keep the 5th starter job in Washington?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It sure is! The bar for being a fifth starter is low and he’s perfectly fine

9:47
Comment From Jumbo Gumbo
Who gets that last spot…..Jordan or Roark?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: At this point it’s almost literally 50/50 but I like Jordan to end with the greater number of innings

9:47
Comment From Machete
How serious are Matt Moore’s control problems…headed to Blass or Ankeil?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: You mean legendarily bad? No, Blass and Ankiel had mental problems. Moore has a body problem.

9:49
Comment From Matt
How stunned would you be if Mauer played 155 games and hit 25 home runs?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: More stunned than I am when raspberries last more than three days in the refrigerator before getting black spots

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: that is to say, extremely stunned

9:50
Comment From Rags
You think Carlos Martinez is stuck in the bullpen forever now? Does he take a starting spot before the ASG?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: no, no

9:50
Comment From Ozzie
So what do you think of the Quintana extension?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Quiet and good, just like Quintana himself. Will probably write about him later in the week

9:50
Comment From Guest
DH excluded, where do you want your best hitter playing in the field for longevity and performance sake?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: That would be first base, but decisions aren’t made on that basis alone

9:51
Comment From Paul
Grady Sizemore really going to win the CF in Boston? Any chance he regains his 30/30 form or is his body too beaten to contribute?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, no. If only because even if he’s healthy, he’s also 31 years old, now

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to play careful baseball, and the Red Sox will encourage him to do so, and he’ll get some regular time off

9:52
Comment From fan
Are the M’s wasting Zunino’s offensive potential by rushing him? Or was it limited in the first place due to his strikeout rates?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: They were a little rough on him, but he’ll presumably be fine in the long run, in terms of performance vs. expected performance had he not been rushed. He’s never going to be an All-Star for his bat.

9:52
Comment From Matt
At the age of 22 Oswaldo Arcia had a WRC+ of 103. I feel like people haven’t appreciated that enough. Think he can be a middle of the order hitter in a decent lineup?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Well he also had 23 walks and 117 strikeouts

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Arcia has familiar issues to work out, but given his age, yeah, he can settle in as a fine bat for the long haul

9:53
Comment From Barwin Darney
How are defensive projections calculated for minor league players?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Poorly

9:54
Comment From bill
Favorite type of meat? Prepared how?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: chicken, fried

9:54
Comment From Tim
I’m worried about R.Soriano – the Nats can’t afford to be patient if he struggles out of the gate right?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Sure they can, their division sucks

9:55
Comment From _David_
Can the Mariners trade Nick Franklin to the Rays, Mets, Orioles, Tigers, and Rangers and they can each have him for 30 games?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Mariners want five fractions of a reasonable Nick Franklin trade return

9:55
Comment From Jared T.
YOU ANSWERED A FANTASY QUESTION! I DON’T EVEN KNOW YOU ANYMORE

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: This queue…

9:56
Comment From Machete
Have you read or commented on the recent reports out of Nolan Ryan and Tommy John on pitcher babying?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I sure haven’t! I sure can guess what they are!

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They’re over-simplifying a very complicated issue

9:57
Comment From R. Velarde
Do you see Kazmir maintaining the success he had last year? The home park should help him at least maintain, if not improve those numbers, right? At years end, Gray or Kazmir as the team’s Ace? Or none of the above?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Gray > Kazmir, Kazmir > rest of rotation

9:58
Comment From XanderFan
Do the Tigers and/or Rangers make deals before the season starts to fill their gaping holes?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t looking that way. Rangers aren’t going to do anything to further block Profar, and they have enough rotation candidates. Tigers seem like they’re going to ride this out for at least a couple months

9:58
Comment From Magic Johnson
Why won’t I trade Andre Ethier? A .280 20 HR OF isn’t exactly worthless…is Matt Kemp capable of staying healthy and coming close to his 2011 numbers? Or does the fact that he’s hanging around mean they have no confidence in his health?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s re-evaluate when you actually have a full and healthy outfield

9:59
Comment From Morty
Is the NYY infield going to be absolutely brutal this year?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: It won’t be Marlins-bad!

9:59
Comment From EC
Strasburg going to go HAM and destroy the league this year?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: He is good and will stay good

9:59
Comment From hooha
What is the earliest you can see Ruben Amaro getting fired?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: after the draft

10:00
Comment From Machete
What is Drew smoking thinking that if he waits until the start of the season he can avoid a QO next year? No one is going to offer him a $15 mil offer next year. Some times these athletes blow my mind with their sense of value.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: last year Drew was worth three and a half wins

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: if he did that again in 2014, yeah, he’d get a QO

10:00
Comment From Matt
Am I the only one going bonkers about Grady Sizemore? …hear his defense is electrifying in spring games thus far…wouldn’t that indicate he’s healthy and ready to go 30/30 again for the 2014 World Series Champs?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Grady Sizemore’s defense has reportedly been electrifying in spring games, therefore he’s going to be one of the very best players in baseball!

10:02
Comment From _David_
Would any team try to really differ money to keep a vital player, like offering Trout $600M over sixty years, with clauses dealing with how the end of his career is handled?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I believe MLB banned personal-services contracts going forward, as of a couple years ago

10:02
Comment From BassmanUW
With how into pitch framing you are, do you think one of the biggest reasons the Cardinals’ staff has been so successful over the past several years is Yadier Molina?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Not even a question, to me

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Molina might make the biggest defensive impact out of anyone

10:03
Comment From RogerCraig
How horrible is the Michhael Morse-Gregor Blanco platoon in LF going to be for the Giants?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on how often they play the latter

10:03
Comment From Jay
What team do you think has the largest variance in potential 2014 wins? Smallest variance?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Angels?, Twins

10:04
Comment From Chi-town
Shark put his condo on market – only a matter of when now, right?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: July

10:05
Comment From RGFanClubPrez
I don’t get all the Ryan Goins hate. The Jays were something like -2 WAR last year at 2B. Going with a defensive minded replacement level 2B seems like a big enough upgrade over what they had, and they have more than enough offence in the lineup to cover.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: If you want to contend, and if you’re starting a replacement-level 2B, it stands to reason you ought to do better than the replacement-level 2B

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t matter if they project to be better than they were a year ago. It matters that they still project to be the worst in baseball

10:06
Comment From Bullpensive
Soria/Hunter/NateJones: What percentage confidence do you have in drafting each, as far as meeting an avg expectation for at least avg closer year?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Well I personally won’t be drafting any of them

10:06
Comment From Rainier
How worried are the Rangers now? Injuries hitting them hard — Darvish with back issues, might miss opener. Are the Mariners looming?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Darvish seems fine but this is all pretty good news for the Angels. The Mariners have their own health problems to deal with (Walker, Iwakuma, Hart)

10:07
Comment From RogerCraig
Will Tim Lincecum still be starting by Sept.?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:07
Comment From Kevin
Given the injuries suffered by the Rangers, Braves, A’s and Tigers, are the Nats the WS favourites at this point?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers, probably

10:07
Comment From Bill
What do you think David Ortiz could have gotten on the open market after this season if he declined a Red Sox qualifying offer?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I doubt more than he got. At least not by enough to make it worthwhile. Those two are meant for one another

10:09
Comment From Another Jeff
The Nationals keep saying they’re not ready to name a starter at 2B… is Espinosa really that much better in the field that he’s a legitimate candidate over Rendon?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: and the Mariners keep saying they’re not ready to name a starter at SS

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: It’s Rendon

10:09
Comment From Danny
Javier Baez makes me very happy. Just wanted to tell you that. Think they take their time with him or rush him up to the show? Feel like keeping him down as long as possible is the smart move, right?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not far away, but they’ll wait long enough to take care of the usual service-time concerns

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: The BB/K stuff is only really acceptable because of his age, but right there’s a justification for keeping him in the minors a bit longer

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Like with Springer. You can claim you’re sending these guys down for performance because they strike out too often

10:10
Comment From BassmanUW
The first Cub traded this season will be who? I’m guessing Nate Schierholtz is gone by 5/15, as either the Tigers or Reds will realize they have a big enough hole in at least one outfield position that Schierholtz would be a significant improvement (which means your other options are REALLY bad), and the Cubs seem to be high on giving Ryan Kalish a legitimate look. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Schierholtz is traded before opening day.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds fair to me

10:11
Comment From Drew
Second favorite geological phenomenon?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: plutons

10:11
Comment From BassmanUW
Let’s say the Yankees aren’t very good for 3-4 years in a row. Not terrible, but no seasons more than 85 wins, a lot of hovering around .500, never really competing for a playoff spot in the stacked AL East. Do they ever reach a point where they do a quasi tear down and rebuild, or do they spend themselves into contention?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Given their budget, I don’t think the Yankees will ever need to really go through an ordinary rebuilding process. They’ll always have the money to win and win soon

10:12
Comment From Guest
If you had to wager money on one team to win their division which one would it be?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals

10:12
Comment From Rated Rookie
How much better off would Cincinnati be if Sizemore had landed with them?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Considerably. Boy could that be a game-changer

10:12
Comment From Another Jeff
Predicted call-up date for Javier Baez? June?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Yep, the usual date, more or less, for quality prospects who aren’t far off

10:13
Comment From fattyboo
is everyone lazy to assume the jays will be under .500 because they were last year? do we often rank last years win totals too heavily in predicting this years win totals?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Yes to the second question, but as for the former, they *do* play in a hard division and it’s not like they’re an obviously .500+ baseball team.

10:14
Comment From Rob
Does Shane Vitorino stay healthy and produce an average season or does he get hurt and/or begin the regression of a mid 30′s player? Will Nave displace him at some point this season?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I believe he’s already hurt, right now

10:14
Comment From Bo
Let’s say, hypothetically, the Braves were to trade for Gregorius and stick him at 2B. How much would that affect team BABIP allowed?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: 5 points?

10:15
Comment From Mike
With Lambo sent to the minors and Ishikawa the defacto partner for Sanchez, do you see the Pirates making a trade for a first baseman soon?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I am very, very moderately surprised they haven’t just picked up Brett Wallace for the hell of it

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Odds of a move increase with Lambo having disappointed, but he could still be the guy a month from now

10:16
Comment From Rated Rookie
If Smoak runs like he has double-pianos on his back, how would you describe how Jesus Montero runs? A chubby antelope?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: tectonically

10:17
Comment From Guest
Team most likely to underperform in 2014 is…

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies could be a catastrophe

10:17
Comment From 20longyears
Pirates trade rumors: shopping Tabata, shopping a reliever (Mazzaro? Gomez?), asking about Didi, supposedly interested in Davis and Carp, and today they designated Lambo for assignment. What do you see shaking out of all this?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I think Cover It Live just ate a question about the Pirates

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Uh oh, I’m having some web browser hiccups over here. Damn you CiL!

10:19
Comment From Dan
If you’re stuck on a deserted island only get one condiment, which condiment do you choose and why?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: That chocolate topping that hardens into a shell so I could try to make a boat

10:19
Comment From toot toot
How long does the Edinson Volquez Experiment last in Pittsburgh?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Long enough

10:20
Comment From hooha
Jason Marquis has 7.5 career WAR in nearly 2000 innings. Can you think of anyone else who played as long with such mediocre results?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Cairo comes to mind

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I’m forgetting the name of one other guy…

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Juan Castro’s at -6 career WAR

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Neifi Perez, -3

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Marquis seems to have the highest innings total for a single-digit WAR guy since 1969

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Eric Show threw 1655 innings and was worth 8.4 WAR

10:23
Comment From matt
have japanese/cuban players had different aging curves from people who come up in the minors so far? they seem to stick around a lot longer. Of course, they are the elite subset of japanese/cuban players, so there’s some bias involved there..

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Selection bias + small samples. Interesting question that right now we can’t satisfactorily answer

10:23
Comment From Eric
Draft David wright or longoria 7×7 10 team league h2h

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: This is why Dave and I don’t answer fantasy questions

10:24
Comment From Prich
Would the Ms be wise to see if the Pirates were interested in a Morrison for Tabata swap? Would Sea have to add a minor league piece, or would straight up probably work for PIT?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Might work straight-up.

10:25
Comment From Conrad
Meaningless Spring Training Stat of the Day – Junior Lake’s 3 Homeruns? or is there the potential there for an interesting season? I mean we don’t see 3 HRs very often in any environment outside BP….

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Also his only three home runs

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a worse version of a young Alfonso Soriano, right?

10:26
Comment From Barwin Darney
Scott Feldman, Chris Tillman, or Ricky Nolasco worst opening day starter?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Just the other day I was reminded of Livan Hernandez, Opening Day starter

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say…Nolasco?

10:27
Comment From _David_
Do framers impact different types of pitchers differently? I can’t figure out if someone like Cliff Lee would benefit more from pinpointing the framing limit of the zone, or if Matt Moore would because A. He throws more balls that could become strikes and B. His pitches, being difficult to hit, have more upside from becoming strikes…

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to tell because framing is both framing + command. How much of Lee’s numbers is because of Lee, and how much is the catchers? Same with Moore. With Moore, it’s not easy to receive for a guy with mediocre command who misses all over the zone

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: The answer to your first question is, yes. But it’s complicated. Intuitively it seems like a guy like Moore would benefit the most but Lee’s command allows him to maximize the effect

10:29
Comment From Jake
What team getting 85+ win projections are you least confident in?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Well we only have a few of those, but right now Rangers?

10:30
Comment From disco derk
If Strasburg and Harper were both free agents this last offseason, what would they have gotten on the open market?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Strasburg: $180-200 million

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Harper: $250-300 million

10:31
Comment From IGotTheRuns
Who’s replacing Tommy Hunter in week 2 after he blows 3 games?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: The better, normal version of Tommy Hunter

10:31
Comment From Kris
Farrell said there’s not room for both Sizemore and Bradley, you suggested above that Sizemore would be Bradley insurance… you don’t think it’s the other way around?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I meant that Sizemore allows them to take their time with Bradley, a luxury they might not have without him

10:32
Comment From LaLoosh
was Scott Baker really awful in camp?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Not enough strikes, not enough good strikes. He’s got a ways to go

10:32
Comment From Mt. St. Helens
How concerned are yu concerned with darvish’s neck?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably fine. If he’s not — if he’s actually got something legitimately wrong — the Rangers might be the fourth-best team in that division

10:33
Comment From Jack
What would be your best guess at the terms of Stephen Drew’s next contract?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Ervin Santana’s contract

10:33
Comment From Guest
jose abreu’s slash line this year is?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: terrific!

10:33
Comment From Hes Sooooooo Taguchi
Do we see George Springer in Houston before June?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: 50/50. Depends on the extent to which he dominates Triple-A out of the gate

10:33
Comment From Sean
Let’s talk young catchers… Who puts up a better war this year and for their career? Mesoraco or Grandal

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Grandal, when accounting for defense

10:34
Comment From Harry
Any idea if Iglesias’ injury might linger past this missed season…given a large chunk of his value is related to defense and range? or should he recover fully?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously I have no particular insight but from what I can tell the Tigers aren’t concerned about 2015 and the more distant future

10:34
Comment From Kimball
Was your Marlins post inspired by Sam Miller’s Astros post, or was it just a sort-of coincidence? (You would enjoy Sam’s post, if you haven’t already.)

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Coincidence, and I wanted to write the Marlins post Friday before something else came up. But when I saw Sam’s post go live, I did feel a little discouraged because I knew his post would be better and it was posted first

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I think Sam did the same thing a year ago. It’s possible that somewhere in my subconscious that inspired the train of thought

10:36
Comment From Kole
What % chance do you see George Springer actually going 30/30 this year, as Oliver so generously projects?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: If Oliver were my neighbor I wouldn’t trust it to water my plants.

10:36
Comment From semperty
Why are the fangraphs depth charts so much lower on Yadi than Steamer or ZiPS (in terms of PA)?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Conservative depth-chart manager

10:37
Comment From the Average Sports Fan
Last year the signing of Brandon McCarthy was viewed as a tremendous bargain. He was basically terrible last year. Think he turns things around?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Posted a 100 xFIP-, after posting a 102 xFIP-. Posted a 95 FIP-, after posting a 94 FIP-. He’s fine

10:38
Comment From Catoblepas
Red Sox are also saying that there’s only room for one of Bradley or Sizemore on the roster. That changes if they move Carp, right? Is sending one of them down really the best solution?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: If they don’t like the Carp offers, they’ll hold on and wait to see what develops with Bradley and Sizemore weeks and months down the road

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: But if Victorino starts on the DL, then you don’t have to demote Bradley right away

10:39
Comment From Crusty
What is more likely: Yellowstone erupts and destroys the Midwest, or the Cubs winning a world series?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: In 2014?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs one.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: If they happened simultaneously…

10:39
Comment From Jason Heyward
On a scale of 1 to raspberries, how shocked are you if I put up a .300/.400/.500 line

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: 0.9raspberries

10:40
Comment From Jake
What are the dodgers doing with Alex Guererro? Over under 400 AB 15HRs

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: They hate his defense

10:40
Comment From ROger
Kendrys Morales: When and where? This guy is way to talented not to be playing.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Seattle seems like less of a possibility now that they’ve admitted Corey Hart probably isn’t an outfielder

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Orioles? I honestly just can’t guess anymore. It’s a mystery to me.

10:42
Comment From Gila Monster
Do you find it is strange the Matt Moore has excellent mechanics, but can’t reapeat them? Are those the mechanics that work best for him?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Might that mean that Matt Moore doesn’t actually have excellent mechanics?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the answer to that — just a question. It’s like saying a guy has good stuff but no control. Is control/command a part of stuff?

10:42
Comment From JohnnyFive
If Mike Trout was a fruit, what would he be to you? In my mind, he’s a delicious honeycrisp apple.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: A perfect slice of watermelon on a perfect summer Sunday afternoon

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I really need to get going. Once again, I went longer than I intended to!

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time — after baseball! — and until then, be well and have great days




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


7 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/25/14”

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  1. graves9 says:

    Does Didi and or Franklin get traded before the season starts? If so most likely landing spot?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Clay says:

    Which catcher and which pitcher would you rather have?
    Pierzynski, Mesoraco, Ruiz, Martin, d’Arnaud, grandal?
    Skaggs vs. Ian Kennedy?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jimmer says:

    ‘Jeff Sullivan: I love, incidentally, that Votto is going to *tighten up* his strike zone. Just a big ol F-U to the critical observers’

    I could not agree more with this if I tried. Good for Votto.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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