Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/1/14

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys!

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Shut up!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I chatted three and a half damn hours yesterday. You take what you get and you like it.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk about the baseballs!

9:12
Comment From Guest
Going to be a long season for Toronto?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a long season everywhere! 162 games is a whole lot of games and they usually don’t play more than one in a day

9:13
Comment From jocephus
Bobby Parnell has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the medial collateral ligament in his right elbow.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: All of a sudden Jose Valverde is relevant again. How does this keep happening

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Explains why Parnell was throwing like 92-94

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe now people will talk a little less about the 3-2 pitch d’Arnaud didn’t frame right

9:14
Comment From Jake
The Yankees seem to have been ahead of the curve on pitch framing with Martin, Cervelli, JR Murphy, Stewart and company. Is that part of why they seem to consistently over perform their WAR and, to a lesser extent, pythag expected wins? In 2013: 10.4 War, 79 Pythag Wins, 85 wins.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Framing wouldn’t be a “hidden” skill like that

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Framing would contribute directly to walks, strikeouts, and home runs, so it would show up in the regular statistics

9:15
Comment From Kimball
Hi! Apologies in advance, going to give into my urge to post way too many Mariners-related questions today. Only game I saw yesterday.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see if I also post way too many Mariners-related answers!

9:16
Comment From vliet
Jeff – I’m getting pitcher + pitcher /position offers for Cano. What type of players should I expect in return? Thks!

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Real good ones

9:16
Comment From JJ
Does Drew sign before the draft?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think he does. Could see something soon as a team gets desperate and tries to stave off falling out of the race too quickly

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: But I’ve obviously been wrong about this the whole time so far given that he’s still out there sitting at home doing nothing and it’s the first day of April

9:17
Comment From juan pierres mustache
it’s Valverde time! so excited except for the part where bobby parnell got hurt and he seems like a decent dude most likely

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Worst thing about being a closer is if you’re ineffective people start to look at you as a bad person on top of being a bad pitcher. They just look for reasons to hate you

9:18
Comment From gregory
Which pitcher impressed you most on opening day?

9:18
Comment From Guest
You were right, always pick Felix

9:19
Comment From KJ
Does the MLB want me to actually get work done every tuesday afternoon? Why are there never day games?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: The dearth of more consistent day games is one of the great modern travesties. Wonderful for the economy, but, travesty

9:20
Comment From GSon
Tommy Hunter.. straight hard fastball.. Do you see him lasting as the O’s closer?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I do, but I don’t see him going along without taking some lumps

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Probably a good-sized handful of lumps

9:21
Comment From Kimball
Most negative sign from the Mariners’ game: Zunino looking mostly clueless hitting or the various coaching decisions (lineup construction, baserunning)?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Dustin Ackley’s disgusting awful beard

9:21
Comment From Joe
Might the Blue Jays sign Drew now that Reyes is on the DL?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee you they’re at least talking about it internally today

9:22
Comment From Alex
If you were a vulcanologist (sic), do you think you’d need therapy?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Not to any greater extent than I do now

9:22
Comment From Eddie
Cubs going to be the lowest scoring team in MLB this season?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: we have them projected third-lowest, so, very possibly http://www.fangraphs.com/de…

9:23
Comment From atoms
In light of all the closer shuffling over the past couple of days, it occurred to me just how dumb it is that we desperately comb the waiver wire for guys like Valverde on the off chance they might pick up some saves. Can’t the fantasy community come up with a better stat for reliever value? I’d rather find the best, most high performing relievers than have to pretend to care about which guys some manager thinks should get the “closer” tag. Saves are a dumb stat anyway.

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I too would like for fantasy baseball to behave more like real baseball because then maybe people would be more inclined to just ask about real-baseball questions!

9:23
Comment From Guest
Who would you rather have playing a corner OF spot Carp or Ackley?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley

9:24
Comment From Will
Evan Reed was the hardest throwing reliever from yesterday, throwing even harder than Trevor Rosenthal. Who is this guy and is he good?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: 28-year-old ~rookie and sadly no not really

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Has only half-decent reliever numbers in triple-A. Unlikely to improve against big-league competition

9:25
Comment From Matt
What do you think will happen to Starlin Castro when Baez is eventually called up? Who will play SS for the Cubs?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Castro

9:26
Comment From The Dude
So who’s infield is better in the Yanks-Stros tonight?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: :(

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I’m picking the Yankees but not because I like what they have

9:27
Comment From dds
If you were the Red Sox would you re-sign Lester for 5/120, or trade for Cliff Lee for the next 2.5 years at the cost of $60M and prospects?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: The first one

9:28
Comment From Paul
Thoughts on the De Aza/Viciedo “platoon”

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be decent enough until one of them is traded or someone gets hurt

9:28
Comment From M. Trout
O/U 112 WAR for my career?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Under by a lot

9:28
Comment From ST3
Fernandez: Most exciting pitcher in the MLB?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: He’s my pick! Invaluable contribution made by his personality

9:29
Comment From Jake
On the balance, how was your opening day?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Probably 97% of perfect

9:30
Comment From The Dude
Why was everyone complaining about the strike three call on JBJ yesterday? Looked good to me.

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Because it was a borderline pitch at just about the most high-leverage of circumstances. It wasn’t obviously a strike nor was it obviously a ball and so in high-leverage times of interpretation, a lot of people are going to complain regardless

9:31
Comment From Kris
How long does Gattis last for ATL? His approach is just awful

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully for some time because the alternatives are Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit and they can’t do anything

9:32
Comment From Jared T.
Did you get to see any of the defensive tomfoolery from the Giants/Diamondbacks game? What a weird opening day.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I was watching everything until 7, and then it was 100% Mariners from that point forward

9:32
Comment From Jake
Marcell Ozuna leads the league in wRC+, with 610. Think he’s due for regression?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: In early June last year he had an .869 OPS!

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Then he had a .544 OPS :(

9:33
Comment From jocephus
billy hamilton didn’t look too hot

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: :o

9:33
Comment From Gabes
Over/Under on games for Jose Reyes this year?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: 120

9:34
Comment From wong
To the hating parnell comment, it’s exactly the same sentiment in the NFL with kickers who miss field goals and extra points

9:34
Comment From Guest
According to Pitch F/X Jose Fernandez threw his curveball 876 times last year and opposing hitters had a 4 wRC+ against it. Discuss.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: On the one hand I hate numbers like that, because you can’t just look at line statistics against pitch types removed from context, but I do think that basically captures the essence of the pitch in question

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: From the Rockies recap:

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies twice had two on against Fernandez. But Tulowizki struck out on a slider, and Justin Morneau grounded out to end the first.

“He’s different with that pitch,” Tulowitkzi said of the slider. “I think that sets him apart from guys. It covers a lot of ground, I guess.”

9:36
Comment From Jake
Say a team is projected by FG for 81 wins, and they start the season with a 6 game winning streak. What would FG project their final W-L record at? Just, 84-78? Whatever’s left in the season*projected true talent win percentage?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Basically

9:36
Comment From bhudson
Moral outrage at Milwaukee fans applauding Braun was amusing, no?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I’m thankful that I didn’t end up exposed to people acting like that

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Like I’m sure it was all over the place on twitter and the blogosphere, but I didn’t see it, which is a big success for this guy

9:37
Comment From Sauceman11
Did you watch Mr. Jose Fernandez last night??? Tell me how he does not reach the following by year end; 200 IP, 2.25ERA, 230 K, and 1.05 WHIP, anyone?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Well he could get hurt or really depressed

9:37
Comment From MSW
As a Mets fan, I just want to say that baseball is the worst. That is all.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: THAT’S WHAT YOU GET FOR LOOKING FORWARD TO THINGS

9:37
Comment From gregory
Are you buying the idea that Starlin Castro will have a bounce-back season?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: To being roughly average, sure

9:38
Comment From AK
Marcell Ozuna was extremely entertaining yesterday. What can you tell me about Marcell Ozuna?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: He sure is powerful!

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: That sure is just about it!

9:38
Comment From RK
Will Franklin be playing SS in Tacoma? How long do you think he’s there before trade/callup?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of SS playing time in Triple-A. Right now he’s injury depth and a midseason trade asset

9:39
Comment From Erik
No, volcanologists don’t need therapy. Really, honestly. We’re all perfectly sane. Back off. BACK OFF.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: /Yellowstone sensationalism

9:39
Comment From Guest
Any clue about where Kendrys Morales might sign at this point?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely none. Total mystery to me these days. Someone has to get hurt.

9:40
Comment From Julian
Has anyone ever done a comparison of aging curves for players offered/signed to extensions versus players that a team just let get to free agency? Do you think teams could be seeing something about players that’s causing them not to lock them up long term, or is it just economics/player valuation?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Relatedly, Matt Swartz has found and shown that players teams keep tend to age better than players that sign big contracts with a new organization

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Suggests that, yeah, teams have a pretty good idea of what’s going on with their own players, and they make informed decisions henceforth

9:41
Comment From Jase
If Grady Sizemore goes 130 G, .275/.355/.500, 20 HR, 15 SB this year, do you think the Red Sox give him a qualifying-offer? What kind of contract would someone give him?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’d get a QO, but I think he could re-sign for a couple years

9:42
Comment From The Dude
If Shark can’t strike anyone out, how much does this kill the Cubs chances of moving him?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: A lot but thankfully you won’t have to worry about that because he’s one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball!

9:42
Comment From Rated Rookie
Francisco Liriano humiliated Anthony Rizzo. Is there anything to learn about either player? Or about same-handed pitching-hitting encounters?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Francisco Liriano is completely and utterly unfair against lefties

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: He pitches to lefties like he’s a bullpen specialist, only he’s a starting pitcher

9:43
Comment From CJ
If Ramos is out a while…you like Gomes, Martin, M.Montero or Ruiz more?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Those players are all on different teams

9:43
Comment From The Dude
Reed’s velocity was probably largely adrenaline driven.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: He was up about 2 ticks from a season ago

9:44
Comment From Robert
Trout vs Felix lived up to expectations, yes?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: That was perfect. We got to see Trout be Trout and we got to see Felix be Felix and everybody won in the end. Except for the Angels and their fans

9:45
Comment From SMC
From a purely strategic perspective, shouldn’t a manager (if he hasn’t used it already) challenge the last play of the game every time? Even if he loses, the very small chance of winning the challenge trumps the certainty of losing the game.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t it up to the umpires by that point?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I think managers can only challenge in the first six innings

9:46
Comment From AK
Should I check my voicemail

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: No, never check voicemail

9:46
Comment From gregory
Extend Samardzija or trade him at the deadline?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Virtually certain trade

9:47
Comment From Guest
Semien or Matt Davidson: Which one is the better hitting prospect? Do either or both have a full-time position by ASB?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I think Semien is more likely to be okay and I think Davidson is more likely to be good. They’ll get more and more playing time as the season wears on and as places open up

9:48
Comment From Jered Weaver
Can I throw harder than Barry Zito?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although you might not need to to succeed

9:48
Comment From Guest
How bad to you expect Weaver to be this year? He looks like he gets gassed pretty early for a guy who doesn’t even throw hard.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I expect him to be one of the better starters in the American League

9:49
Comment From bdhudson
Jose Fernandez has a delightful smile

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Every player should be that excited about baseball

9:49
Comment From Maxamuz
Pound sand Jeff, that call was a ball on JBJ and you know it.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously I do not know it

9:50
Comment From Cory
LOL I just looked at the probable pitchers for tomorrow and the Royals #2 is Jason Vargas. People are seriously picking this team to make the playoffs?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, this is the big issue people have with that team, although it’s worth noting Yordano Ventura could shake up the rotation order in a damn hurry

9:50
Comment From juan pierres mustache
not sure if you saw much of Sonny Gray yesterday since he was pitching at the same time as the Mariners were playing, but his defensive highlights were some of the coolest things I saw yesterday

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I”ll make a point of looking at that in a short while! Thanks

9:50
Comment From dw
Would a Nick Frankliin for Joc Pederson trade make sense for both clubs? If not, who would have to throw something in and what would that look like?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners would probably have to add a little to the package

9:51
Comment From Nimmo
Would you be shocked if Jeter hit .300 this season?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: No, because the last time he was a regular he hit .316 and he was already old then

9:51
Comment From Washington Irving
Any candidates to pull a Chris Davis this year?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of candidates, but no one’s gonna do it

9:51
Comment From Guest
Looks like Mike Trout plans to go for 10 WAR again

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: And he took out a good reliever, too. So if he stays the same, and he injures the opposition…

9:52
Comment From ST3
I submitted this one to Carson last night but you’re probably the expert… Which is more likely: A) Justin Smoak lives up to his prospect hype or B) A bug flies into his constantly open mouth.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: A bug? One bug? Definitely the bug

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Probably up to 50 or 60 bugs before I change my answer

9:52
Comment From Nimmo
Thank god for the Raptors, if not for them Toronto would be in full out panic mode! (Leafs losing 8 straight in a tight playoff race, Jays and RA getting destroyed by Rays, and Reyes on the sidelines).

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: The Leafs happen to be salvaging my NHL season experience! Thank you, Leafs!

9:54
Comment From JimO
Why is outfield arm so much more important for RF than LF? is this just because RF throws to 3B more often than LF throws to 1B?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Two long throws to make, to 3B and home.

9:55
Comment From Blue Coller Red Neck
What kind of line would Barry Bonds put up if he started working out now and joined a team at the AS break? 200/350/350?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t know how many times I think about this every week

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I think even better than that!

9:55
Comment From AK
But for real can I hear some things about Ozuna?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Young, talented, powerful, athletic, can run, will be limited by his approach. Nobody knows about him, and he could help the Marlins for a while, but I doubt he blossoms into a core asset

9:56
Comment From Guest
Do you think Kershaws delayed start is going to affect the likelihood of him winning the Cy Young?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s already working against him. The voters really like innings totals

9:57
Comment From duder
How long until we can start actually taking away anything from games/performances? A month? 2? When does SSS turn into OKSS?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on what you’re looking at. Pitches/stuff/approach, you can learn about earlier. Raw overall performance, that’s going to take a while

9:57
Comment From inquiring mind
Can Matt Davidson be a good OBP guy in addition to the power?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Decent OBP guy

9:58
Comment From Josh
Did you feel like Felix threw too many in the dirt last night? Zunino did a lot of work behind the plate blocking stuff left and right. Lots of ks, but also a lot of risk involved with guys on base. Don’t you think?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Pitches down there keep there from being too many guys on base

9:58
Comment From Paul
Jeff! What the heck is up with Ramos? leaves the game? Broken bone? Oh wait, Xrays negative? What are they smoking at Citi Field? How bad do you think this injury is?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: They say he first tweaked his hand something like a week ago? Right now he’s being examined further but last I saw there was speculation this could be a hamate thing

9:59
Comment From Max
Prediction for Jose Abreu?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Best position player on the team by a lot

10:00
Comment From Kimball
Assuming (as a right-minded person), the DH is a better solution than pitchers hitting, how is that so many teams end up rolling out essentially replacement level DHs? Mitch Moreland? Matt Joyce? Raul Ibanez??

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: They value the flexibility of being able to cycle players through

10:01
Comment From Justin
What’s the biggest “it’s one day, everyone calm the eff down” storyline coming out of Opening Day?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: People are probably going to make way too much of Billy Hamilton struggling against Adam freaking Wainwright

10:01
Comment From Erik
O/U for Grady Sizemore games this season: 100

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: oh what the hell. over! happy 2014!

10:01
Comment From SteveV
You buying Middlebrooks breakout based on his vision issue?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I am not buying that

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I might consider renting that

10:02
Comment From Washington Irving
Post about inordinate number of Opening Day shutouts (and remarkable performances in general)? Representation bias, yes, and best pitchers are usually starting on Opening Day, yes, but still…Felix, Wainwright, Gallardo, Price, Masterson, last year Kershaw, Strasburg……..

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Opening Day is the one day when ~all the aces pitch

10:02
Comment From John
Shouldn’t there be some kind of sliding scale in terms of $/WAR? It seems very simplistic to say that 1 WAR = $6M or whatever.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, it’s different for every team and every situation. People generally make too much of that number

10:03
Comment From Guest
Maybe already mentioned, but gotta throw two things out from Cards/Reds game. Amazing start for Hamilton, huh? I know it is small sample size but Reds need to realize soon that he’s not ready for MLB. And two, got to see a Joey Votto popup, though oddly the stats here call is a fly ball, I think because it was caught in foul territory by the 3B?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: FanGraphs has it as not a pop-up, B-R has it as a pop-up. This will be written about.

10:03
Comment From Ed
If Reyes appears to have significant injury time ahead of him, does that make it more likely or less likely that the Jays think about signing Drew?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: More

10:03
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Thoughts on Chris Ownings over Didi?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Very different players, very similar overall values. Important thing will be cashing one of them in for enough somewhere else

10:04
Comment From Bearman
More likely cy young winner; Jose Fernandez or Felix Hernandez. Or Both.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Felix, but it’s really close

10:04
Comment From Nerd Buzzard
Love the community post yesterday about the value of GMs. Great work done. Do you think the marginal effort of extracting wins increases as you go further up the win curve? (i.e. winning games 95 to 100 is more expensive than winning games 45 to 50.)

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s harder to get further than average than closer to average

10:05
Comment From Justin Masterson
Do I have what it takes to join the elite ranks in the AL?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t you already?

10:05
Comment From Kimball
If a manager doesn’t shift, apparently on principle, does that correlate with ill-informed decision making in other areas? (I realize that deciding not to shift is not necessarily ill-informed, but seems like it sometimes is.)

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Intuitively, sure

10:05
Comment From Steve
Is it time to worry about Brad Miller yet?

10:05
Comment From Maxamuz
Hey look! One game has been played and people already talking about Sizemore going 20/15.

10:05
Comment From Blue Coller Red Neck
Higher WAR this season: Grady Sizemore or Brian Roberts?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sizemore

10:06
Comment From Cautious Optimism
Mariners-related question (can’t help it): Initial thoughts on Almonte’s debut at lead off?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: He’s fine. My preference would be a good version of Ackley but that doesn’t exist yet

10:06
Comment From Nick
Who should the Nats call up as a replacement backup if Ramos has to miss significant time? Leon seems to at least have better defensive skills than Solano but man both options kind of stink

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, kind of better not to think about it. If the Nationals liked their other backup options they wouldn’t have prioritized Lobaton in the first place

10:07
Comment From Jake
Is there any evidence guys with big splits tend towards lower clutch scores, since they’re easier to neutralize with a reliever?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t find anything like that when I researched it around when Shin-Soo Choo signed

10:07
Comment From Jared T.
Giants failed rundown dot gif: http://bit.ly/1pI3yAV

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Crawford. amazing

10:08
Comment From Cory
Baseball for my team isn’t on today, how do I pass the time, please give tips

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Watch other baseball! It’s so fresh and new and exciting everyone is watchable. We don’t know what to make of any team yet so this opportunity should be seized

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Like, in August, there’s probably no way you’re watching Rockies/Marlins. But today, on the first day of April? Why not!

10:10
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
what was the wpa swing with that instant replay pickoff overturn in the Pitt/Chc game. Late game 0-0, runner on 1st one out vs bases empty two outs?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Let me run some numbers real quick

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Wait, I don’t need to

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates WE with runner on 1st: 49.5%
Pirates WE with two out: 58.7%

http://www.fangraphs.com/pl…

10:12
Comment From Blue Coller Red Neck
Could Randy Johnson come back as a successful LOOGY if he wanted to… given a couple month to work out and join a team by AS break?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he could be at least a second lefty

10:12
Comment From Kimball
Can you see yourself getting emotionally invested in Cano the way you are about Felix? I assumed I wouldn’t, but was surprised to feel twinges of something yesterday.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Felix is like a child. Cano is like the person the child goes on to marry. It’s family, but it’s not the same deep down

10:13
Comment From Cory
Max Scherzer lookin’ awfully studly http://i.imgur.com/xtZFkK7.jpg

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: AHH

10:14
Comment From Conrad
Where did that Gallardo start come from??!

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: BJ Upton

10:15
Comment From Tim
Who has the best rotation in the AL west Right now?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Like *right* right now? A’s, Angels close behind

10:15
Comment From Chet Stedman
why do we say rain rain go away come again another day when we really want it to come again never thx big fan

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Without rain we would all die

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: We would die slowly and horribly

10:16
Comment From Sadwick
Thoughts on the challenge system so far? It seemed to work pretty smoothly with minimal delays. I still find some of the rules around it a bit arbitrary, but it worked out wel enough that no one can really complain.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: 100% behind it so far

10:17
Comment From JLS
Which team’s bench is most awful? Astros? Tigers?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Ooh. Tigers!

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Who is this guy? http://mlb.mlb.com/team/pla…

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: How is that guy 23?

10:17
Comment From Rags
If you don’t want to respond to fantasy questions, why even publish them? I’d rather read your thoughts on interesting questions than the predictable snark.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I need to make an example of some to ward away the many

10:18
Comment From DTSS
Walk me back from the ledge re: Strasburg’s velocity. It was just a little cold weather that led to the slowest fastballs, by far, of any start in his career, right?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: We can’t explain it quite yet, but his results were okay and you should wait to see how he looks in another few weeks

10:18
Comment From Rated Rookie
Fangraphs ever publish April Fools’s Day content? I mean, other than the Notgraphs stuff.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no, that shit is always terrible

10:19
Comment From Jamie
Are managers being to conservative with their challenges? On average they shouldn’t be using them every game, so if there is a call that looks bad in the first, shouldn’t they use it?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: They have to weigh the circumstances and get a feel for how many close plays there really are in each game. If there’s a close play in the first but it’s not likely to affect a run-scoring situation, I don’t think you’re going to see many challenges

10:19
Comment From The Dude
What baseball player would be the best at hockey?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Yadier Molina as a goalie

10:20
Comment From The Dude
What’s wrong with Trout? He’s not first on the WAR leaderboard.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t include defense yet

10:20
Comment From inquiring mind
Do you think ZWheeler’s control can improve enough this year to make him a good #2 SP?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: It can but it won’t

10:21
Comment From inquiring mind
Do you think Eovaldi’s changeup can improve enough this year to make him a good #2 SP?

10:21
Comment From Stephen
Is there a rational reason to be excited about Grady Sizemore this year? Or am just being hopeful?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: When he was legitimately healthy he was one of the very best all-around players in the world

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no rational reason to expect like 6 WAR but if he really and truly feels like he’s back together, he could be a hell of a run-producer who holds his own in the outfield

10:23
Comment From Steve
What prospect currently in the minors has the biggest impact in the mlb this yr?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Polanco? Gausman?

10:23
Comment From Stephen
Is there a rational reason to be excited about Grady Sizemore this year? Or am just being hopeful?

10:23
Comment From Stephen
Is there a rational reason to be excited about Grady Sizemore this year? Or am just being hopeful?

10:24
Comment From the Average Sports Fan
I know it is only 1 game, but the Reds looked terrible yesterday. If it where not for Votto I am pretty sure the Astros lineup is better.

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Last year Adam Wainwright allowed a .636 OPS

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Last year the Marlins had a .627 OPS

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Adam Wainwright can turn the average offense into the 2013 Miami Marlins

10:25
Comment From TKDC
How long before everyone in baseball starts to wonder why they didn’t have replay 15 years ago?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: today or tomorrow

10:25
Comment From Washington Irving
In the year _____ the NL gets the DH.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: 2020?

10:26
Comment From Catoblepas
how long into the season before we stop hearing things like this? “These guys are better than they showed tonight,” Scioscia said of the relievers, who ranked third in the Majors in ERA during Spring Training.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Couple weeks, but this early you need *something* to reflect on. Before opening day, there’s no data, except for spring-training data

10:26
Comment From Prich
Can we finally put the ‘Justin Smoak is a Bust’ talk to rest? I mean, SSS, but still, he hit those mistakes REALLY hard…

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: He owns a career WAR of 0.1

10:27
Comment From Gila Monster
Do you buy into Zunino’s pitching framing ability? BP projected him to be the 3rd most valuable framer after Grandal and Lucroy.’

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’m virtually certain he’s above-average but I don’t think he’s quite that good

10:28
Comment From Jim
Some pegged this as a rebound year for the Angels. How long until we can safely say “Might be” or “Probably not”?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be in the race, and they’re my current pick to win the division

10:29
Comment From Catoblepas
how big of an advantage comes from getting to start your 1/2 guys in australia, rest them for a week, and start them again for real opening day?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a small fraction of a win! So it has a market value of at least a few hundred thousand dollars!

10:30
Comment From Will
Masterson sucks way too much against lefties to be an elite pitcher

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Good progress a year ago. You can have a big platoon split as a starter as long as you completely dominate hitters of your own handedness

10:30
Comment From Kimball
Not counting player-option years on contracts, is the Trout contract the first one where it was probably the team, not the player, who wanted more years than they could get in the final deal?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Cespedes/Oakland

10:31
Comment From bill
Abe Almonte looked halfway competent at the plate! Agree or pat my head condescendingly?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a bad player

10:31
Comment From J
If a team started with a 6 game win streak wouldn’t the projection be more like 84-78?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t that what was said?

10:32
Comment From The Dude
Doesn’t Rockies/Marlins get more intriguing later in the season due to the dearth of prospecty goodness being displayed?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think dearth is the word that you’re looking for!

10:32
Comment From Catoblepas
best pitching matchup of the day to watch?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Kluber/Kazmir!

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Hutchison/Cobb could be fun, too, as could Anderson/Eovaldi

10:33
Comment From Nick Castellanos
How many 3Bs are better than me?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Several of them

10:33
Comment From Mike T.
describe pitcher Dustin McGowan in one sentence please.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: How about one word?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Vitrious

10:34
Comment From the Average Sports Fan
For pitchers I can watch average velocity it seems to see where guys are. What can I watch for hitters?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: We don’t really have a comparable indicator. Just feel, basically.

10:34
Comment From Shawn
Jeff – if you had to pick one discipline, physical chemistry or organic chemistry?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: o-chem is more fun, p-chem is more amazing

10:35
Comment From Nolan Ryan
Is Trevor Rosenthal the new Matt Thornton?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: If Matt Thornton were completely amazing ever

10:35
Comment From Hal S.
Very few people have the Yankees winning the division. Obviously there’s age/injury risk but I think they’re the best team on paper. What are your thoughts on the AL East?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Every team’s all right, three teams are better than the other two, I like the Red Sox the most but that division could easily have three playoff teams

10:36
Comment From Hal S.
What percentage of questions asked do you actually get to answer?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Probably 20-25%?

10:36
Comment From Jordan
Do you have confidence in a bounce back season from Cespedes? Or should we all be expecting more regression? Do you see him as Beane-trade bait in restocking farm system if outfield performs better with more Gentry?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I like him as being a little better than last season, and I figure he can be solidly above-average. Also still has that superstar potential that the lineup otherwise lacks

10:37
Comment From Phil
What are possible destinations for Samardzija?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Literally any contending team in July. Whittled down to contending teams with a lot of good young prospects

10:38
Comment From Mike
Jeff – I buy the ‘Dole’ brand of raspberries at my supermarket, they definitely last more than 3 days in the fridge sans black spots.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I’m also on a raspberry hot streak! Don’t jinx it!

10:38
Comment From SMC
Say the Astros pull an ’03 Royals and are somehow on the fringes of contention in July. Should they leverage any of their farm for a big league upgrade? Sell as usual?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Stand pat, maybe tweak. But they have so many pieces coming anyway they might be able to improve internally

10:39
Comment From Matt
You seem like you would be good friends with Sam Miller.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t believe I’ve never met him yet

10:40
Comment From Owen
Watching Jered Weaver and hoping he does well is a minor emotional roller coaster. At times he seems to have everyone off balance. At other times he doesn’t, and he’s throwing 76. Can I basically extrapolate that for his season?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Last year he was throwing the same stuff and he kept his ERA in the low 3s. He’s a guy who’s always going to be better than he looks. Not the most comfortable kind of player to watch, but an alternative might be watching a guy who doesn’t fulfill his potential and that’s differently aggravating

10:41
Comment From ashtray
What would you rather fight: 100 duck sized horses or 1 horse sized duck?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Am I armed?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: 1 horse-sized duck. I’d feel terrible about beating the crap out of 100 living things

10:42
Comment From juan pierres mustache
it’s rational to be excited about Grady Sizemore because it’s fun to be excited

10:42
Comment From juan pierres mustache
anyway who ever said being rational was fun

10:42
Comment From juan pierres mustache
if i did everything rationally my life would be exceptionally boring

10:43
Comment From Tom
Lots of conversation about Smoak learning hitting tips from Cano. Smoak even went over to him right after his HR yesterday. If Smoak finally puts it together, will this community credit it to his prime years and dismiss the Cano impact?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: No, I think we’re beyond that. We might question why it took another player to raise Smoak to the next level considering that baseball teams are supposed to have hitting coaches

10:43
Comment From Blurp
Build your perfect pitcher. __________s Fastball, _____________s Breaking Ball, ____________________s Change up, ____________________s command, _________________s physical attributes.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Harvey’s fastball, Fernandez’s breaking ball, Felix’s changeup, Lee’s command, Buehrle’s? physical attributes

10:45
Comment From Jake
Mike Trout+ Josh Hamilton for nothing, to an average team. Is there positive or negative value on that trade?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: The magnitude of Trout’s surplus value is greater than the magnitude of Hamilton’s negative value

10:46
Comment From Guest
Is the current division leader most likely to go wire to wire the Nats? Alternative answer is Cards.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Nats, then Tigers

10:47
Comment From Gila Monster
Speaking of Yasmani Grandal, is he going to be the next Lucroy? Excellent defense,framing, and a pretty good bat.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a good bet to be fairly underrated, albeit not Lucroy-level underrated

10:47
Comment From ST3
Is there a better battery in baseball than Wainwright/Molina?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

10:48
Comment From Professor Ross Eforp
Why the way under on Trout 120 WAR? Just the simple fact that staying healthy for 20 years and playing baseball is a really difficult feat?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: You got it! Of course he’s the most likely of the current players to get there, but, just about every player ever has not gotten there

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: All right you guys, it’s time for me to get going

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a good bet to be fairly underrated, albeit not Lucroy-level underrated

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, and we’ll do it again next week at the same time. Sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. Until the next chat, be well and have great days, and yay baseball!



Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Jon
Guest
Jon
2 years 4 months ago

Maybe already mentioned, but gotta throw two things out from Cards/Reds game. Amazing start for Hamilton, huh? I know it is small sample size but Reds need to realize soon that he’s not ready for MLB. And two, got to see a Joey Votto popup, though oddly the stats here call is a fly ball, I think because it was caught in foul territory by the 3B?

Jon
Guest
Jon
2 years 4 months ago

Oops…

Josh
Guest
Josh
2 years 4 months ago

Do you feel like Felix threw too many in the dirt last night? Lots of ks but he made Zunino work pretty hard. Kind of risky with guys on base, don’t you think?

Tresh
Member
Tresh
2 years 4 months ago

Could you please give us your thoughts on Billy Burns. Lots of hype in the Oakland press, but it’s hard to trust that. He has a great OBP, but since he has no power, will MLB pitchers just knock the bat out of his hands? Is he a starting OF/DH or is he just a 4th outfielder? And any thoughts on his ETA? Many thanks.

MSpitz
Guest
MSpitz
2 years 4 months ago

Most important question: Jeff, are you a Senators fan???

DBA455
Member
Member
DBA455
2 years 4 months ago

The Trout + Hamilton question is more interesting as Trout + Hamilton + Pujols.

wpDiscuz