Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/30/13

9:02 Jeff Sullivan: I’m the least late I’ve been in months!
9:02 Jeff Sullivan: Reminder #1: I am not a fantasy baseball expert
9:02 Jeff Sullivan: Reminder #2: I am not a baseball expert
9:02 Jeff Sullivan: Remember #3: There are hundreds, if not thousands of questions submitted in the queue over the course of a chat, so I have no prayer of keeping up.
9:02 Jeff Sullivan: Now we begin with the baseball chat!
9:03 Comment From BlueJaysFan1
omg help. say something nice. do something helppppp!

9:03 Jeff Sullivan: Only a half-game back of the Angels
9:03 Comment From AAJT
Will Jeff be on time? That is the question.
9:03 Jeff Sullivan: lol
9:03 Comment From Guest
What was it about SB Nation’s new format/policies that made you and Matt decide it was time to hang ’em up?
9:03 Jeff Sullivan: First of all, it’s Matthew
9:04 Jeff Sullivan: Second of all, we expressed everything there was to express. I don’t know why people think we were misleading the audience. We explained why we booked it
9:04 Comment From Jason
Is Kyle Seager quietly turning into what people thought Dustin Ackley would be and vice versa?
9:04 Jeff Sullivan: Not exactly — Ackley was supposed to be an OBP machine with limited power — but it is most curious that Seager is the guy on the fringes of starhood while Ackley is still trying to figure out how to swing
9:05 Comment From The other Kyle
Jeff Locke will finish the season as a top ____ pitcher?
9:05 Jeff Sullivan: 120
9:05 Comment From The other Kyle
Tony Cingrani will finish the season as a top ____ pitcher?
9:05 Jeff Sullivan: 90
9:06 Comment From Django
Who is the best pitcher in baseball?
9:06 Jeff Sullivan: It was Justin Verlander before the season, and I don’t yet have reason to change my mind about that, although it’s obviously a close race
9:06 Comment From RotoLando
Content! Content! Content!
9:06 Jeff Sullivan: Glad to see you’re content
9:06 Comment From Larry
What will regress more for Jordan Zimmerman: His K-rate up, or his ERA up? They seem to be in conflict right now.
9:08 Jeff Sullivan: His ERA will go up more than his strikeout rate, but Zimmermann is an interesting one to examine. His grounders are way up this season — could be something to the Nationals trying to extend their pitchers by reducing strikeouts
9:08 Jeff Sullivan: Or could be nothing. Zimmermann’s rate of contact allowed is up four percentage points from his career average despite no apparent downtick in stuff
9:09 Comment From Jeff in T.O.
Sens & Habs, who you got?
9:09 Jeff Sullivan: Sens in 6
9:09 Comment From Thomas
I hate seeing a young star like Stanton get hurt, but is it ok to celebrate it as karmic retribution against Jeffrey Loria?
9:10 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, because it’s bad for Stanton, too. I think the thing to celebrate will be the Marlins’ non-existent attendance. Stanton doesn’t really make a difference to the Marlins right now, since they completely suck
9:10 Jeff Sullivan: Put another way: how does it affect Loria to have Stanton DL’d?
9:10 Comment From Nicky
Think Stanton’s injury affects his trade status at all?
9:11 Jeff Sullivan: Injuries kind of seem to be a part of the package with Stanton. I don’t think he’s getting dealt midseason, and I think at year’s end, provided Stanton hasn’t missed the majority of the season, he’s still going to drive an absurd market. This will just be a reminder that Stanton probably isn’t going to give his next team 160 games a year
9:11 Comment From Dave M.
Better throwing arm – Johnny Damon or Tim Tebow?
9:12 Jeff Sullivan: Having never seen Tim Tebow throw, Tim Tebow
9:12 Comment From Jason
Will any teams be joining the 2008 Mariners as a $100M, 100-loss club this year?
9:12 Jeff Sullivan: nope
9:13 Comment From Len Sakata
Jeff, if you were involved in a game of sorts that used real stats for MLB players organized on hypothetical teams created by you and your friends, would you trade … ahh nm, I’ll just tweet Eno. Thanks.
9:13 Jeff Sullivan: I like you
9:13 Comment From Monty
What’s your opinion on the Mariners so far. Seems like their offense isn’t quite as bad as it used to be.
9:13 Jeff Sullivan: Which is kind of the whole point of this year’s Mariners. They’re mediocre in a different way from how they’ve been mediocre in the past and they aren’t finishing at .500 and the front office isn’t all keeping their jobs
9:14 Comment From Len Sakata
Where would the Marlins Minus Giancarlo finish in the PCL?
9:14 Jeff Sullivan: First or second, probably, but it’s be a challenge every day
9:14 Comment From Hieronymous
What’s the advantage of pitching from the windup? It seems to me most pitchers would benefit from just focusing on the stretch, rather than trying to maintain two distinct pitching mechanics.
9:16 Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers are trained in the windup, so that’s what’s most familiar to them. That’s how they know best their timing and their balance. When you’re in the stretch, it’s easy to get hurried up and lose your timing, and when you’re off by even a fraction of a second everything can go to hell. I don’t think there are pitchers in the bigs who just flat-out suck from the stretch — everybody ends up trained in both — but it does seem like something of an inefficiency
9:16 Comment From Bob Loblaw
So arguably Josh Hamilton now owns one of the best (the 4 HR 18 TB game in Baltimore) and the worst (9 PA, 3 K, 8 swinging strikes) games in baseball history, right?
9:16 Jeff Sullivan: Josh Hamilton in a nutshell
9:16 Jeff Sullivan: Year 1 of that contract btw
9:17 Comment From Jason
Please rate the coolness factor of the same 2 teams having the Cy Young winners but both pitchers being different.
9:17 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t get it
9:17 Comment From AAJT
Volcano expert?
9:18 Jeff Sullivan: Reasonably educated volcano fan
9:18 Comment From Daniel Carroll
At what point does defensive efficiency (BABIP against) become a thing worth talking about? Does it normalize fairly quickly? Of course there will be variation depending on which fielders are playing.
9:19 Jeff Sullivan: While there’s no specific point, I usually start paying some attention to team defensive numbers after about a month (so, now!). Still plenty of room for fluctuation and you have to keep an eye on who’s been playing where and who’s been hurt, but on the team level, samples build quickly
9:19 Comment From Guest
Are you starting Quintana, Jose (CHA) tonight against Yu?
9:19 Jeff Sullivan: I can tell you with absolute certainty that no I am not
9:20 Comment From Mark
Imagine if were a woman. You’d be always “honey I’m late” and the guy would die a little every time.
9:20 Jeff Sullivan: One day I’m going to start seven minutes early
9:20 Jeff Sullivan: Or like 47 minutes early, to make up for all the past tardiness
9:20 Comment From jeff
do you think middlebrooks is just off to a slow start or are the fears about his strikeout problem begun to manifest>
9:22 Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than this, but he’s clearly exploitable, and the BB/K issues aren’t going away
9:22 Jeff Sullivan: So, both?
9:22 Comment From Lance
The umpire hit Zach Britton with a ball in last night’s O’s/Mariners game. Pretty sure that helped the M’s offense “explode” and further win the game. They weren’t supposed to win, right? The M’s don’t win games!
9:22 Jeff Sullivan: The M’s win plenty of games. Even last year’s Astros won plenty of games!
9:22 Comment From Guest
Any chance that Carlos Triunfel will see playing time at SS?
9:22 Jeff Sullivan: Not much of it
9:22 Comment From Gila Monster
I know you hate fantasy questions.. But is Adam Dunn or anyone for that matter even worth the start against Yu Darvish? Or is V. Wells v. Houston a better start.
9:23 Jeff Sullivan: So you’re asking me about a bad hitter vs. a superstar pitcher and a slightly less bad hitter against a team that can’t pitch
9:23 Comment From Jake
So Montero, Smoak and maybe Ackley are busts, and Choo, Fister and Cabrerra flourish once they leave Seattle. What’s responsible? Poor player development? Poor talent evaluation? The ballpark? Bad luck?
9:24 Jeff Sullivan: a little of A, a little of D. We don’t know what Choo and Cabrera would’ve done in Seattle, and Fister was getting better when he got dealt. Montero/Smoak/Ackley were highly rated by everyone so it’s not like the Mariners just missed the boat on those guys
9:25 Jeff Sullivan: People badly want for there to be something systemic that’s the matter. Could be as simple as Smoak doesn’t have power and Montero doesn’t have an eye
9:25 Comment From Christian
More surprising: The A’s Angels game went 19 innings, or the Angels bullpen only gave up 1 run between the 10th and 18th innings?
9:25 Jeff Sullivan: a shame about the 8th and the 9th and the 19th innings
9:27 Comment From jeff
legitimate concern for victor martinez? he has looked awful.
9:28 Jeff Sullivan: I like that his discipline is basically intact and he’s been getting under the ball a lot more than he used to. I’m going to allow him a slow start, considering, and look for a lot of improvement in May. If *that* doesn’t come then that’ll be a problem
9:28 Comment From Len Sakata
What meaningful conclusions do you, non-baseball expert, draw after one month of play? How do you distinguish predictive trends from SSS/noise trends?
9:30 Jeff Sullivan: I handle everything — everything — on a case-by-case basis. Hard to explain in a chat on the fly, but if I identify something I didn’t expect, I’ll look for reasons for why it might be and I treat everything with skepticism until I have reason to believe in an actual change. Even when I spot something I think might be real, that doesn’t mean it is. Usually, baseball stays just about the same
9:31 Comment From Mark
Justin Verlander is an 8 NERD pitcher? Is he so low because Yu Darvish has all the NERD?
9:31 Jeff Sullivan: Sure, that works
9:31 Comment From F U Jobu
Smyly over Porcello? who do you like?
9:31 Jeff Sullivan: I like Smyly more
9:31 Comment From Johnny Slick
How for real is Hisashi Iwakuma, on a scale of 1 to 10?
9:31 Jeff Sullivan: Hisashi Iwakuma is real, so in that sense, 10
9:31 Jeff Sullivan: He strikes me as a real good No. 3 and a half-decent No. 2 and I couldn’t be happier with him
9:33 Comment From Mike
Who’s the better player overall: Justin Upton or Jason Heyward?
9:33 Jeff Sullivan: Before the year I would’ve said Heyward, but now there’s plenty of reason to believe that Upton is back on track so I’m leaning in his direction. But it’s closer than it probably seems like it is considering how the’yve started
9:33 Jeff Sullivan: don’t forget that Upton is +1 appendix
9:33 Comment From Guest
Mark Trumbo hit the longest home run of the season so far. I think he put it in the bay… in oakland
9:33 Jeff Sullivan: 120 miles per hour off the bat!
9:35 Comment From jeff
how do you think the twins outfield is going to shake out the rest of the year? arcia has looked better than hicks but he’s not exactly a centerfielder.
9:35 Jeff Sullivan: I’d be surprised if Arcia sticks around
9:36 Comment From Bart
Will Mike Carp see more playing time with the Red Sox being that he’s been hitting very well when he gets a chance to play?
9:36 Jeff Sullivan: Not really much in the way of room, and also he is not very good despite these 24 plate appearances
9:37 Comment From Izzy
How highly will Matt Harvey finish in the Cy Young voting?
9:37 Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with fourth?
9:37 Comment From njpozner
Speaking of Ackley, why were scouts (allegedly) so convinced that he would never be a decent defensive 2nd baseman? Was this some kind of echo chamber where one guy said and then it got repeated over and over?
9:38 Jeff Sullivan: Part the second thing, part Ackley taking real strides forward after arriving at the position. Also part people not being particularly good at evaluating defense. I think it’s hard for a prospect to shed a reputation once he has it
9:38 Jeff Sullivan: even today people still ask me if Ackley can handle second
9:38 Comment From jeff
who do you think has a better chance of getting their mojo back? weaver or dunn?
9:39 Jeff Sullivan: My head says Dunn, since his change is more deliberate. He can make himself be patient again if he wants to. Weaver can’t make himself throw the baseball faster
9:39 Comment From Shark Mapiro
Ubaldo’s good start last night: aberration, or aberration that gets up Indians fans’ hopes before letting us down in 5 days?
9:39 Jeff Sullivan: Without question the second one
9:40 Jeff Sullivan: From 6/5/12 – 7/7/12, Jimenez allowed 15 runs in 46 innings!
9:41 Jeff Sullivan: the rest of the year his ERA was nearly 7!
9:42 Comment From Andrew
What is your take, provided you have one, on Heyward’s estimated recovery time of late May? To me, odd he even gave one.
9:42 Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing somebody asked when he wants to be back, and Heyward just gave an answer since it seemed like the thing to do. This is up in the air but Heyward probably isn’t far off in his estimate
9:43 Jeff Sullivan: Oh crap I forgot my display name
9:43 Jeff Sullivan: Ahhh there we are
9:44 Jeff Sullivan: Jeff Sullivan, baseball authority!
9:44 Comment From _David_
Does the NBA’s decision not to relocate the Kings hurt the Mariners’ ability to make money from Root Sports?
9:45 Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t help, but I don’t think the Mariners’ plan is contingent on getting a basketball team in the near future. Remember that these negotiations began years ago
9:45 Comment From zack
What is your take on all the finger pointing in the Dylan Bundy saga? It seems a little ridiculous given the fact that a) Bundy’s a pitcher b) pitchers get hurt and c) no one knows why.
9:45 Jeff Sullivan: I’m unaware of finger-pointing but my sense is, yeah, this crap happens, and nobody knows how a young pitcher is supposed to be handled
9:45 Jeff Sullivan: At least not with a high degree of certainty
9:46 Comment From Tim
So with Haren being done, Detwiler being mediocre as always, and Gio and Strasburg disappointing thus far, is the Nats rotation not as good as we thought?
9:48 Jeff Sullivan: Well, Haren’s velocity is up and his K/BB is about normal, so I’m not ready to say that he’s finished. But relative to what we would’ve expected before the season, I think it’s safe to knock the Nationals down a peg, based on the observations. They are very good — they are not elite, at the moment
9:48 Comment From Guest
If Jack Z in Seattle were to get fired, do you have any idea on who might possible Mariners GM candidates?
9:48 Jeff Sullivan: No. Not worth speculating right now.
9:49 Jeff Sullivan: No one has any idea what kind of GM the Mariners would look for. No one has any idea who would even be doing the hiring
9:49 Comment From Dan
Who leads MLB in K this year, Darvish or Scherzer? I bet they both strikeout 300!
9:49 Jeff Sullivan: Darvish
9:50 Comment From the human rain delay
people talk a lot about pitchers’ ages, but shouldn’t innings pitched be at least as important– for example, madison bumgarner is younger than matt harvey, but he’s pitched a lot more professional innings, so doesn’t it stand to reason (other health issues being equal) that harvey should have more good innings left in his arm?
9:50 Jeff Sullivan: What about Matt Harvey’s amateur innings? Do those not count? I’ll grant that maybe they’re not as stressful as professional innings, but they aren’t nothing.
9:51 Jeff Sullivan: Age matters because of how bodies develop. Of course, what’s true generally isn’t always true specifically, and we don’t know how Bumgarner and Harvey, specifically, are constructed. Pitchers are really annoying in this way
9:52 Jeff Sullivan: Between Bumgarner and Harvey, the pitcher more likely to last longer is: I have absolutely no idea, and neither does anyone else. You can make arguments for both sides but there’s no proof of anything, at least not to which we have access
9:52 Comment From Django
True or false: The amount of innings you pitch is meaningless in terms of injury, etc. The amount of pitches you throw is what matters.
9:53 Jeff Sullivan: Pitches seem like they should matter more, but innings aren’t meaningless, because innings are correlated to pitches. It’s like saying “wins” are meaningless. No they’re not. Wins are strongly correlated with effectiveness. We just have other numbers that are a lot better
9:53 Comment From Bradstick
Be honest, at any point in the offseason, were you disappointed the Mariners didn’t land Josh Hamilton?
9:53 Jeff Sullivan: Yes, a little, but I’m a fan who’s driven by emotion and a desire for short-term excitement
9:53 Comment From Denver Omelette
After 23 games, ZiPS suddenly loves Yuniseky Betancourt, to the tune of a .438 RoS SLG, a number he has never approached in any full season. Is he doing something different? Is his home park that favorable? Has the world gone mad?
9:54 Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS ROS projects a .173 ISO. Two years ago, with the Royals, Betancourt posted a .172 ISO
9:55 Jeff Sullivan: More importantly, ZiPS ROS projects a 0.0 WAR
9:55 Jeff Sullivan: There’s no change. Yuni is Yuni. Sometimes this happens
9:56 Comment From Scott
Would it be crazy to say Garrett Richards will be the Angels second best starter ROS?
9:56 Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t have you committed
9:56 Comment From _David_
If Geoff Baker really does a podcast with you, could it possibly not be awkward?
9:57 Jeff Sullivan: Geoff and I have had a number of regular, cordial conversations. It’s not like there’s some blood feud. We’re people who write about baseball.
9:57 Jeff Sullivan: The part where he’d be shirtless would be awkward
9:57 Comment From Guest
Caps-Rangers prediction?
9:57 Jeff Sullivan: Rangers in 7
9:58 Comment From Andrew
Is Jason Heyward soft? Saying late May for an appendectomy..Holliday and Dunn took like a week and a half.
9:58 Jeff Sullivan: Jason Heyward had somebody open his stomach and remove an organ from it
9:58 Jeff Sullivan: And every surgery is different. Give Heyward a break
9:59 Comment From Ed
First manager fired this year? Mike Scioscia?
10:00 Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I could see that. Not necessarily because Scioscia is a bad manager, but because this could be a Red Sox situation, where a good manager just doesn’t exert the authority he used to and a clubhouse needs a new voice
10:00 Comment From Guest
How sick is the Detroit rotation? #1 in SP WAR by more than a win over #2, and that’s without getting anything from Porcello.
10:01 Jeff Sullivan: The Nationals’ rotation has undershot our expectations. The Tigers are dead on. The Tigers’ rotation is great!
10:01 Comment From John
Are you concerned about Verlander’s velocity or no?
10:02 Jeff Sullivan: It has my interest, on account of
10:03 Jeff Sullivan: but the rest of his numbers are outstanding, so I’m not really *concerned*. It’s like with Felix — the velocity is down some more, but he’s still pitching like an ace. I get concerned when velocity and results fall on harder times
10:03 Comment From Jaack
Dave Cameron’s first Fangraphs article was on Gabe Kepler. What are your thoughts?
10:03 Jeff Sullivan: I hate going back and seeing what we wrote years and years ago. It’s so uninteresting!
10:03 Jeff Sullivan: Regardless of what you think of the FG front page now, it is so much better than it used to be
10:04 Jeff Sullivan: Almost everywhere on the internet is better than it used to be
10:04 Jeff Sullivan: Almost
10:04 Comment From Alex
Excited for the NHL playoffs tonight?
10:04 Jeff Sullivan: For reasons you would find uninteresting, not yet! But, soon!
10:04 Jeff Sullivan: Until the playoffs are over I am going to have some really lousy Tuesday baseball chats!
10:04 Comment From Daniel Carroll
How on earth do pitchers ever record hits when they are batting? This is the highest level of competition! I don’t get how pitchers can outhit Brendan Ryan, considering how much more practice at it he has than they do.
10:06 Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of a pitcher whose true-talent offense is better than Ryan’s, but keep in mind that all these pitchers grew up knowing how to hit, and they would’ve been great hitters and pitchers in high school or college. Often. They’ve fallen out of practice in the bigs, but if they have decent eyes and decent wrists…
10:06 Jeff Sullivan: I cannot get enough of talking about pitchers batting.
10:06 Comment From saskatunes
If the Marlins played the Astros for all 162 games, what would their respective records be?
10:06 Jeff Sullivan: Marlins with Stanton or Marlins without Stanton?
10:07 Jeff Sullivan: Give the Marlins Stanton and I think they play .500 baseball. They’re close, in that they’re differently terrible
10:08 Comment From Austin from OFallon
What type of pie is the best?
10:08 Jeff Sullivan: fresh
10:08 Comment From zack
Has Matt cain’s run of super awesome home run prevention come to an end?
10:08 Jeff Sullivan: I would assume not
10:09 Jeff Sullivan: He allowed eight dingers in May 2008
10:09 Jeff Sullivan: A couple months with 7
10:10 Jeff Sullivan: I’m open to the idea, and obviously there’s reason for concern, but people might be too hasty in pointing to regression after Cain has built an extended track record of befuddling the numbers. I’m willing to give him more of a chance
10:12 Comment From Jake
Which goes first: Rainier, Baker, St. Helens (again), or Glacier Peak?
10:12 Jeff Sullivan: Rainier goes first, but Glacier Peak has the next truly explosive one
10:13 Comment From Josh
Are you attending the Baseball Prospectus event at Safeco on May 25?
10:13 Jeff Sullivan: No
10:13 Comment From Sadwick
Did the Angels just completely lose their minds trying to bolster an already potent offense and filling out the rotation with mediocrity? That plan never even looked good on paper to me.
10:14 Jeff Sullivan: Blanton didn’t look this bad, couldn’t know Weaver was going to get hurt. Wins are wins no matter how you add them and Hamilton/Trout/Pujols all greatly under-producing. Remember that the Angels projected, by far, to have the highest position-player WAR this season. They looked like a pretty great team a month ago. It makes some sense why they’re struggling today, but let’s not pretend like the Angels didn’t look like WS contenders as recently as spring training
10:15 Comment From Steve
Would you be concerned with the offense if you were a Rangers fan? Black holes at LF and 1B are uncommon
10:16 Jeff Sullivan: Moreland is better than this, Murphy is a lot better than this. The Rangers aren’t going to have the best offense in baseball but they’ll get enough to do what the Rangers do
10:16 Comment From Dave
After reading Dave Cameron’s article yesterday, what should the Jays do to try and salavge the season? Hope the team turns it round quickly or make going into the trade market and try and change things that way (Morneau, a second baseman that doesnt suck)?
10:17 Jeff Sullivan: Other teams aren’t really looking to make trades this early in the season so for the Jays they need to bank on an internal turnaround over the coming weeks. Which wouldn’t be a shock, given how the team projected just a few weeks ago. Then, come late May and June, trades could be made to fill holes that still remain
10:18 Comment From Dan
Do you think we’ll see some sort of SportVu tracking technology in the baseball world for non-Front Office consumption?
10:18 Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it. Why would they offer that to the public?
10:18 Comment From Alex
Think the Angels wish they had Torii Hunter over Josh Hamilton now?
10:18 Jeff Sullivan: Not yet, but give them another couple months.
10:18 Comment From zack
What is your take on the David Price Hallion incident?
10:19 Jeff Sullivan: Umpires have lousy attitudes
10:19 Comment From Lance
If you were offered a position with a major league team, but that team was the Marlins, would you take it? If so, what position would it have to be to do so?
10:19 Jeff Sullivan: Lefty reliever, and yeah, I’d do it. I wouldn’t last long, but I’d have fun with it and I’d like to see if I could break DIPS theory
10:20 Jeff Sullivan: I’ve got Tim Wakefield’s fastball without Tim Wakefield’s knuckler!
10:20 Comment From AFan
If Strasburg goes down, Nationals can kiss this season goodbye?
10:20 Jeff Sullivan: No. Baseball teams can’t be destroyed by the loss of one player. And Strasburg is probably just about fine anyway.
10:21 Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Do you think the Pirates will have more wins than the Jays at the end of season?
10:21 Jeff Sullivan: nope
10:21 Comment From the human rain delay
i was watching wainwright pitch last night and they were talking about how he varies his windup throughout the game so that hitters have trouble adjusting to his timing. do other guys do this? i imagine it would be effective, but hard to master…
10:22 Jeff Sullivan: I know some guys vary their arm slots, and some guys vary their timing to make it trickier for base-runners. I don’t have a database or anything at my disposal but it seems like this would be the sort of thing to encourage in a pitcher
10:22 Comment From Leo
What are the odds that one of the Angels/Jays make the playoffs? 10%?
10:23 Jeff Sullivan: Considerably greater than that
10:23 Jeff Sullivan: Here’s one estimate:
10:24 Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
are you buying Marwin Gonzalez as a ~2 win SS? Seems the Astros are doing OK at finding usable MLB starters off the scrap heap in the early going w/ him and maxwell.
10:25 Jeff Sullivan: I could see Gonzalez as a league-average guy but I still think he’s closer to 1 WAR than 2 and I’d be curious to see what he’d do in another ballpark
10:25 Comment From Dan
Can the Astros actually have a 0% chance?
10:26 Jeff Sullivan: 0.0%, absolute? No, but basically, yes.
10:26 Comment From Arnie
Jeff, how concerned should the Orioles be about Dylan Bundy?
10:27 Jeff Sullivan: Long-term? An elbow injury isn’t a death sentence. But I wouldn’t be making any big plans for 2013 or the first half of 2014.
10:27 Comment From Zach
Concerned about Josh Johnson? His speeds a little off but his results are aweful.
10:27 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like his gradually decreasing rate of pitches in the strike zone
10:28 Jeff Sullivan: Still hard to hit, though, but Johnson’s health makes me nervous
10:28 Comment From Evan
Go back to Lookout Landing.
10:28 Jeff Sullivan: No
10:28 Comment From Conrad
What are your thoughts on Tom Verducci’s article that criticizes players for trading walks from strikeouts?
10:28 Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t read it but I am not concerned about the state of the game and neither should you be
10:29 Jeff Sullivan: Some hitters might be too passive. Some hitters are Josh Hamilton and Pablo Sandoval. We know more about baseball than we ever have, so it makes sense that changes would be reflected in the game
10:29 Comment From Pertinent
Does WAR take into account guys that are streaky or have huge games? All Pujols homers came in two games. One of which they won.
10:29 Jeff Sullivan: No
10:29 Comment From Yosemite
When does the entire west coast get destroyed by the volcano that is thousands of years overdue to explode?
10:30 Jeff Sullivan: Don’t worry about it
10:30 Comment From Fantasy
If FanGraphs is all about numbers, stats and predictions, why are there so many of you that “don’t do fantasy”… especially in these chats?
10:30 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t play fantasy baseball, so I am not to be considered an authority on fantasy baseball questions. I don’t know league rules, I don’t know team construction, I don’t know budgets, I don’t know keeper stuff, and so on and so forth. I can give you baseball answers. If you like, you can try applying those to your fantasy leagues
10:31 Jeff Sullivan: And I mean, everybody’s league is different. I don’t know what an auction value is
10:31 Comment From Wobatus
Predict Josh Hamilton’s triple slash rest of way (without looking at Steamer or ZiPS).
10:31 Jeff Sullivan: Good question, let me think
10:32 Jeff Sullivan: .250/.320/.460?
10:32 Jeff Sullivan: holy crap
10:32 Jeff Sullivan: okay I swear that was a coincidence
10:32 Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t even look at any historical numbers
10:33 Comment From Rational
Is it just me, or do you also cringe when “mainstream” baseball media tries to explain and use sabre stats? It seems like they fundamentally have little understanding of what the numbers explain and how it was formulated
10:33 Jeff Sullivan: For me, personally, the mainstream media generally doesn’t do anything to enhance my enjoyment of the game, so I try to avoid exposure as much as I can, within reason
10:34 Jeff Sullivan: Kudos, for example, to Jon Heyman for even knowing what WAR is, but it doesn’t make a difference to me whether or not he develops a better understanding. Why should I care what Jon Heyman knows? I care about me
10:34 Comment From Dan
Has a platelet injection ever helped a pitcher avoid Tommy John?
10:35 Jeff Sullivan: Generally, whenever a pitcher tries to rehab a torn ligament, I just assume he’s going to go under the knife within a few weeks or months
10:35 Jeff Sullivan: I understand why they try but it’s almost inevitable
10:35 Comment From ar
if you could only know a single counting stat for a hitter what would you want to know? (Assume you know PAs.) BB?
10:35 Jeff Sullivan: WAR! Loophole!
10:35 Jeff Sullivan: But more seriously, times on base
10:36 Jeff Sullivan: If I know PAs, what’s the point of identifying a counting stat?
10:36 Comment From Joe
Do you collect any baseball memorabilia? Any favorite item?
10:36 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really collect anything anymore, but I have an autographed picture of Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr wearing Mariners uniforms
10:37 Jeff Sullivan: I fathomed I would sell it for a fortune one day
10:37 Jeff Sullivan: Instead I wound up having to get a job.
10:38 Comment From Mark
Which team won the Montero/Pineda trade?
10:38 Jeff Sullivan: the rest of the AL West
10:38 Comment From pr
you don’t think Micah Owings true batting talent is better than Brendan Ryan’s?
10:38 Jeff Sullivan: Well, all right, that’s one
10:39 Comment From Andrew
What do you look like?
10:39 Jeff Sullivan: a tall white man in Portland who is not overweight
10:39 Comment From BJ
How do the Yankees lose by 8 to Houston?
10:39 Jeff Sullivan: baseball
10:39 Jeff Sullivan: Gotta get going you guys, stuff to do today before flying tomorrow morning
10:40 Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming by and participating in the chat, and I apologize for the material I didn’t have a chance to address. We’ll do it again next Tuesday, and for this particular Tuesday, I hope you do great and feel great! Change the world! Today!
10:40 Jeff Sullivan: Bye guys

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

8 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/30/13”

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  1. tyler says:

    Is Jeff Locke capable of sustaining any wherr near his current production level going forward?

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  2. Wobatus says:

    Nice intuition on Hamilton’s ROW Jeff.

    He’s had month’s like this before, of course. He went .205/.242/.269 in July 2009, walking 4.9% and K’ing 26.8%. Very similar to this April (.202/.246/.298, 4.4 BB% 28.1 k%). Of course, he was hurt that year and didn’t fully recover. But he did make adjustments and hit .342/.392/.447 in August 2009 with a 15% k rate. No power, just 1 homer, and he K’d above 30% again that September.

    But I think he is capable of adjusting. Last year he K’d at a 32.7% rate in June. He cut down slightly in July but he went .177/.253/.354. In August 2012 he went .310/.368/.575.

    The ZiPS projection may be accurate but he may end up surprising people. But he’ll have to adjust.

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  3. Mike says:

    Heyward’s not being soft. Time back from an appendectomy can vary, with the average being 37 days which is around what Heyward said.

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    • Wobatus says:

      In second grade I was back at my desk in 2 weeks. But I was never the same at dodge ball again.

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  4. thehonbtw says:

    What do you think of Quintana?

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  5. J says:

    Just wanted to note how much I appreciate that you now put chat transcripts into the body of the page. I often read the chats after they’re done, and this makes it a lot easier, especially on my phone.

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