Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/28/13

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Whoa. Is this chat going to start on time?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Sort of! Let’s do it!

9:01
Comment From Jack
Do you know anything about the NF (nasty factor) measurement of each pitch on MLB Gameday screen? I presume it is some combination of velocity, location and movement. Is this something worth keeping an eye on when trying to judge a pitcher’s performance? If so, can we get it tracked on Fangraphs?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if they’ve changed NF over the years since it was introduced, but when it was newer, I remember Matthew Carruth did some investigation and he found it was basically worthless.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a neat idea, but pitching is too complicated and pitch effectiveness relies too much on the pitches before and the pitches after. And PITCHf/x doesn’t know anything about deception. So their heart is in the right place, but this isn’t a stat to look at.

9:03
Comment From JFK
Julio Urias from LA , top of the rotation projection?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: He is 16 years old. Quit it.

9:03
Comment From Bret
Jeff when will your mock draft be out?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: That would be a fun project ironically

9:04
Comment From Ruben
I played high school ball with Mariners prospect Mickey Wiswall. Just wondering if you, as a Mariners fan, are aware of him/have any opinion on him. We went to a hockey-powerhouse school in Boston with

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: You wouldn’t want to know my opinion of him, but generally speaking he is a pretty talented professional baseball player. And he has a memorable name

9:05
Comment From The other Kyle
Fujikawa strung together a dominant stretch of 6-7 games after returning from the DL…now that he’s back on the DL, will this impact his return as Cubs closer if, and when, he ever gets healthy?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the Cubs would want him to prove his health. But he’ll presumably be that guy in time. Today I learned Kevin Gregg is still pitching in the majors

9:07
Comment From Dave M.
How close is the relationship of offensive production to bat speed?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: There’s an obvious relationship there but it’s of limited strength on account of needing to know what to do with that bat speed. But with a quicker bat, you can wait to commit a little longer, giving you a better look at the pitches. So it’s clearly important, but it might be correlated stronger with ISO

9:08
Comment From AJ
What is a reasonable power expectation from Grandal at the closer fences in Petco?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: A slugging percentage that spends some time in the fives, and here’s a remark about PEDs

9:09
Comment From Guest
manny machado’s bb% doesn’t seem to align with his plate discipline numbers. how closely do these things correlate, and, more proximately, should we expect an uptick in walks for machado?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, more walks are going to start coming, for a handful of reasons

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: When you make a lot of contact, obviously that’s a walk-rate inhibitor, because you’re ending at bats

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: And when Machado has been making contact, he’s been putting the ball in play more often than fouling the ball off. That’s another factor there, but that’ll probably balance out in time

9:12
Comment From lowercase jeff
how can miguel montero go from a nearly .400 OBP last year to this? his babip is low, but that can’t explain everything. he just looks awful all the time.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Well, it’s significant when your BABIP loses 140 points year to year.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, this one’s a mystery to me. Was just looking at Montero the other day. He’s been almost as bad as the other Montero. A career-high groundball rate suggests something has been off with his swing, even though his discipline numbers are fine

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I assume that Montero is going to recover and be a good regular backstop but around now I’d like to hear an explanation from the team or the player

9:15
Comment From Guest
Skaggs, he had all 3 pitches working for him yesterday, any chance he gets someone’s (Miley) spot in the rotation?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: not yet

9:16
Comment From marc
In April of 2014, is Dustin Ackley on the M’s? How do you think he’ll do if he is?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I think he is, and I think he’d be okay (not Ackley-okay, okay okay). But I’m very, very open to the possibility that he’s too broken, and that Nick Franklin is going to run away with things

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: This leads to a discussion of player evaluation vs. player development, and where the failures have come from, but from an outsider’s perspective we really don’t know and it’s too easy to blame the team instead of the player

9:17
Comment From Monday?
Swinging Stike % and Fastball Velocity: Linear relationship or is there a threshold? (or to put it another way: does a velocity increase from 90 to 91 mean the same thing in terms of changed performance as a velocity increase from 95 to 96?)

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect they would mean more or less the same thing

9:18
Comment From Fozzy Bear
Would you add Wacha Wacha over Ervin Santana or C.J. Wilson?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: no

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Wacha has 15 walks and 34 strikeouts in 52.2 innings in AAA for the record

9:19
Comment From John
What is going on with Austin Jackson? Thought he was supposed to return when eligible, but they’re just saying he’s “not close”…is that medical terminology for…”crap”?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: He’s supposedly making progress, and he’s participating in “baseball activities,” but Jackson needs to run and his hamstring, I guess, just isn’t where it needs to be yet. It’s not dissolving. He’ll return.

9:20
Comment From The other Kyle
Will Evan Gattis’ performance this year impact the Braves’ decision to re-sign McCann? Most cases the answer is an obvious yes, but is this situation different given McCann’s stature in the clubhouse and as one of the key faces of the franchise?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I think McCann ends up elsewhere, and I think the Braves cite Gattis as a reason why they’re confident they’ll be able to be okay moving forward

9:22
Comment From TJ
Chris Perez finally made it to the DL! Too bad Pestano has sucked this year…do we have any clue what’s wrong with Perez?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: “Chris Perez was diagnosed with mild tendonitis of his right rotator cuff following an MRI and will not throw for 5-7 days.”

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be out for some weeks

9:22
Comment From Billy
With your wildest pitches segment, I figure this is right up your alley. Does a pitcher tend to perform better or worse if he uncorks a notably wild pitch early in the game? Experience tells me that at lower levels, this frightens hitters and makes it easier for the pitcher. Are MLBers immune to this?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Without having done any research, I imagine the effect is basically negligible, once you control for pitcher identity. For more wild guys, batters already know they’re going to miss their spots. Is offense deterred by HBPs? Is offense deterred by HBPs in the helmet? I don’t know, but I’m guessing the answer is less interesting than the question

9:25
Comment From Joey
Is there an explanation for Seth Davis hitting lefties well this season when he’s been terribad against them to this point? Just SSS?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know who that is.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Might you mean Seth Smith?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: You probably mean Seth Smith.

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: There might be a mechanical explanation for why Smith has things sorted out, but I haven’t read anything to that effect, and it’s probably nothing but noise. I’m sorry to disappoint.

9:27
Comment From jlr
Yelich has been brutal lately. 4 for his last 40 or something. Went from .340 to .270 in 3 weeks. Still see him as a June call up/pickup?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: 5-for-42, 1 BB, 14 K since May 17. Previous to that, he was getting comfortable in Double-A. This is a new and high level for him and prospects have to adjust to better competition. Yelich shouldn’t be up in June, based on what I’m looking at, but that doesn’t mean the Marlins won’t do it. The Marlins are aggressive with these things, as you know

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not concerned about Yelich but it does look like he needs some more development time, which is perfectly normal

9:28
Comment From Monday?
Whose the star in Pittsburgh next year? Still cutch?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Cutch, with support

9:29
Comment From Guest
The projections systems still like LoMo… do you agree?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a decent hitter who doesn’t do anything else

9:29
Comment From JeffW
Any hope for Desmond Jennings? Can he turn it around like Austin Jackson did?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, there’s hope, but it’s looking like Jennings is getting settled into being what he is. Which is a decent and athletic regular who isn’t a star outfielder, and whose contributions can be hard to notice

9:31
Comment From The other Kyle
Thoughts on Hamels’ struggles this year? He’s pitching better of late, but the results still aren’t there.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t get it ,but I’m not too concerned by it. His discipline numbers are fine, and his pitches are fine. Everything seems fine but the results, and in cases like this, as easy as it would be to panic, I have to have faith in the results catching up. That’s what I’ve been taught

9:33
Comment From Django
What’s your take on Ackley’s demotion?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Appropriate and generally concerning

9:33
Comment From Mariner
Our boy Morse going to reclaim his April glory? 3 dingers in May…

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Well that’s the only thing he does

9:33
Comment From Andrew
How do you feel about OF of JUpton, Heyward in center, and Gattis?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I like it more with BJ Upton in it

9:34
Comment From Jake
How much longer until the Nationals suck it up and DL Bryce Harper? They’re running this kid through a grinder.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably not going to put him on the DL with bursitis. They’re just going to manage things closely, and to be honest these aches and pains are probably always going to be one of the Harper considerations. Can’t see the little injuries going away with the way that he plays

9:37
Comment From Guest
Ellsbury, is he broken? His BABIP is close to what it was last year, and he is hitting .249. His ISO is under .100 again. Can we expect a somewhat rebound in the power/hitting department?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Instead of thinking of Ellsbury as being broken, just eliminate 2011 from his history. Then he looks basically normal. 2011 set an ultimate ceiling for Ellsbury’s production but it’s going to be his curse — no one’s ever going to forget it, so no one’s ever going to accept what Ellsbury is, assuming he isn’t that. It’s going to be Adrian Beltre disease

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury hit for power, once. It’s weird, and it was a hell of a season, but it doesn’t look like it would be fair to expect that kind of stuff from him again.

9:39
Comment From sea salt
what do players talk about at first base?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the first baseman. Some of them are more chatty or more familiar than others

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing in depth

9:40
Comment From JEB
Now that they’re getting call ups who has the better season, Gausman/Wacha/Wheeler?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Gausman?

9:40
Comment From Wobatus
If Franklin produces, and Ackley starts hitting in the minors, what do you do with Ackley? Outfield, or would that kill his value? Lotta ifs there I guess.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I’d give Ackley a few reps in the outfield, but I’d also see if Ackley can replicate that success back in the majors, and I’d think a lot about trading Franklin

9:41
Comment From lowercase jeff
With the exception of the immortal Trout and Harper, just about every prospect has to go through a period of being overmatched so that they can learn to adjust. Are you at all concerned about Zunino’s struggles in AAA? Has your perception of him changed in any way or do you think it’s something everyone goes through and was kind of inevitable?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 2011 in 40 games. So there was an adjustment there, even for him

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: People got way too big on Zunino way too fast, so this has been good for everyone. Zunino will pick things up, but he’ll have more in common with JP Arencibia than he will with Yadier Molina down the road

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Zunino isn’t going to be a superstar, because he’s going to have too many holes

9:43
Comment From The other Kyle
Thoughts on Beachy in the second half?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: pretty good

9:43
Comment From Kevin
Any idea on what kind of proprietary statistics front offices might use? I know they have access to hit f/x stuff, but beyond that what other dark secrets do clubs stat departments hold?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, it depends on the club, but HITf/x is a part of it, as is just a greater level of detail and controlling/adjusting for things. But think of it this way: pretty much every team follows the WAR formula. They just tend to have their own customized inputs

9:45
Comment From Shaun
Worried about Greinke?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: no

9:45
Comment From Bill from Austin
How closely does BABIP follow LD%? Is there a theoretical BABIP given GB%, LD%, FB%, and IFF%?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: BABIP is correlated to LD%, because line drives are good, but LD% is a crummy statistic so you shouldn’t use it

9:46
Comment From Pat
Does FG have aggregate Pitch/FX data for each pitch type across all of baseball? I ask because I was drooling over Kershaw curveball numbers, but then I looked at a bunch of other pitchers who aren’t known for their curveball and they had outstanding numbers with it too (I’m sure part of it is when it’s being thrown in the count). I was hoping for something to back up this very anecdotal observation.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all in the database but it’s not publicly available, the way you describe. And remember that pitches don’t exist in isolation — they all depend on the other pitches that are getting thrown, so a guy who doesn’t have a great curveball might have a great statistical curveball just because people aren’t expecting it

9:47
Comment From Kenny Powers
What do you expect from Wacha this year?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: less than the prospect hounds

9:48
Comment From Monday?
Kemp BA .178 past two weeks. What is going on?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: And look at that UZR! Coming around to the idea that Kemp just can’t be healthy. Something is nagging him that he’s playing through and it’s killing him and the team around him

9:48
Comment From The other Kyle
2-parter…Every year, there’s an Edward Mujica or Fernando Rodney or some other journeyman reliever who’s able to provide a dominant closer season. Will this ever impact GM’s willingness to drop serious coin on closers? And are there any predictive metrics you would use to identify these potential “breakout” journeymen?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t proven closers already had their market value diminished? There’s an existing trend away from spending big on 9th-inning guys. The best identifier of a guy who could be a good closer is whether a guy has been good in the earlier innings. That’s a dumb answer but it’s what I’ve got

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there was any giveaway that Fernando Rodney would be amazing, once

9:51
Comment From Goose
Should the Tigers consider moving Porcello for Ackley? It seems both have raw talent, and could use a change of scenery

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners have a lot more team control of Ackley so I don’t think that would get done

9:52
Comment From Timmy
Could the cubs be setting themselves up this year for a pretty rapid turnaround over the next 2-4 years with a return to the top of the NL? I feel like they have a good young core in Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija and could reload the system big time at the deadline this year?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably not going to be the deadline you imagine it to be, but yeah, the Cubs are rising and plenty of things could happen within 2-4 years. I have a good amount of trust in that organization, and before long they’llbe playing meaningful baseball

9:54
Comment From harmony
Contracts aside, who is currently the more valuable player: Jacoby Ellsbury or Michael Bourn? What will Ellsbury need to accomplish this year to top Bourn’s four-year, $48 million contract?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Bourn, probably, by a bit. Ellsbury could start by being a more average hitter

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: It’d be good to see Ellsbury reach a .340 OBP or so. But he’s going to get paid. He’s got a lot of name value to him, and the right agent

9:56
Comment From AJ
Catch any of Skaggs’ start yesterday, Jeff? Thoughts? The curve was filthy.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll watch some of the highlights later but I basically took the long weekend off. Except to watch a bunch of Didi Gregorius. Didi Gregorius!

9:57
Comment From Dave
Can Jeff Locke sustain this sort of success? His K:BB ratio is improving month on month.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: If I recall correctly, no starting pitcher has a lower Zone% right now than Jeff Locke does.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’s got it in him to be a good pitcher and you can succeed with some grounders and twice as many strikeouts as walks, but the ERA regression’s coming, of course, because that’s the way things work

10:00
Comment From Andrew
Wouldn’t Fiers be a better both current and long-term option than Peralta or Burjos?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Currently, none of them are good. Long-term, Fiers has the 2012 numbers, while Peralta has the stuff. It’s too close a race for us to be able to figure out from here and the Brewers are probably close to making a switch anyway

10:02
Comment From Andrew
Are you more or less bullish on Franklin than you were on Ackley when he was promoted?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: A lot less. I couldn’t wait for Ackley. I thought he’d be terrific. I don’t know what to expect from Franklin but he doesn’t excite me the same

10:04
Comment From Goose
I read an article that hints that there may be an injury to Gio Gonzales. Your thoughts on this?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’s a little hurt. Or maybe he’s the same old Gio Gonzalez, with good stuff and obnoxious inconsistency

10:04
Comment From Harjit
Jeff, are we allowed to ask for fantasy advice?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: You’re allowed to ask anything

10:05
Comment From jeff
Wacha obviously dominated at AAA this season. What are realistic ROS big league expectations for him in St. Louis?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Dominance usually requires strikeouts

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Wacha’s Triple-A contact rate allowed was 84%

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying Wacha won’t be good, but this is important. One can’t afford to overlook what Wacha has actually done in the PCL

10:07
Comment From Guest
Wil Myers starting to heat up a bit. What date do you expect him to be up?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Still a month off, at least

10:07
Comment From Smoo
So Brad Miller was just promoted to Triple-A. Do you think he gets a promotion before the ASB?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: No, but he will be up

10:08
Comment From The other Kyle
Segura was a much-hyped prospect, but I doubt anyone expected this so soon. Regression is to be expected, but is his power legit? And what’s his ceiling for SBs in a season?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not buying *this* amount of power but he did club a 430-foot dinger off Jeff Locke so there’s strength and bat speed in there. He could steal 30-40 bases

10:10
Comment From CKL
More disappointing 2013 so far, Ackley, Ike Davis, Heyward, or Brett Lawrie?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Davis

10:10
Comment From Dave
Buy/Sell: Kawasaki should be the Jays 2B when Reyes come back. Izturis and Bonafacio have been pretty bad and atleast Kawasaki seems to have a good approach at the plate and is also becoming abit of a cult hero too. I know your not a fan but lets face it, he looks the best of a bad bunch right now imo. Also Adam Lind has been surprisingly productive so far.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see how things are when Reyes comes back, but Kawasaki’s inexperienced at 2B and the other guys aren’t bad. They could give Kawasaki some extra playing time, but if he doesn’t perform he could/should go back to the bench

10:12
Comment From CJ
Any way Grandal will be better than Salvador the rest of the way?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: *Any* way?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Yes. Of course!

10:12
Comment From _David_
Without more information, a 23 year old who can stick at SS in MLB and OPSed .828 in AAA seems like a legit prospect. More information reveals that this is Carlos Triunfel, and I’m very aware of his limitations. Still strange to consider though…

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: His approach isn’t good and his defense isn’t good enough. But Triunfel is “underrated” just because of what he isn’t

10:13
Comment From Timmy
Is this an Ms chat or something?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Apparently!

10:14
Comment From James
Corey Kluber has exceeded expectation in small sample size thus far for Cleveland. 9.36 k%/1.52 BB% to go with an impressive FIP/xFIP. What can we expect for him for the rest of the season?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: middle-of-the-rotation pitching, probably

10:15
Comment From At a Starbucks
What will the Rangers do with Profar when Kinsler returns?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Probably send him to the minors

10:15
Comment From Monday?
What exactly do the pitchers in St. Louis drink? It really is kinda ridiculous that they can bring up this many pitchers and pitch this well.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: What do the position players drink, too? Is it the same stuff?

10:15
Comment From GSon
Is it time to declare Ubaldo Jimenez ‘fixed’?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: No. What does that even mean? He isn’t what he was, if that’s what you mean. But he’s adequate. That’s something

10:16
Comment From Andy
Are the Tigers about to run away with the AL Central? Indians are faltering.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: They are far and away the best in there

10:16
Comment From lowercase jeff
true talent Josh Donaldson is what percent of the guy we’re seeing right now?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. 90%? What are we using? He seems awful good.

10:17
Comment From Johnny Safeco
has there ever been a study done about the psychological effects of moving fences in (ie. more balls hit that would have been home runs anyway)?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing scientific, just polling and guesswork. Hasn’t been a big sample in the past of ballparks moving in their fences. It should be a small psychological boost for some of the hitters but not enough to make/break a career

10:18
Comment From RK
It’d be hard to sell to the fans either way, but do you think there is any chance Gattis or McCann gets moved? It’s an area they seem to have excess value this year.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t move them in a contending season

10:19
Comment From Frank
How do you judge team behavior like Lohse being noted ‘TBD’ before lineups locked for the week with “discomfort” only to find out he’s just fine a day later? Is this “Belichick syndrome” in the baseball world where they obtain a competitive advantage by being cagey with borderline injuries?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Brewers are that concerned with a regular-season baseball game against the Twins in the last week of May

10:21
Comment From lowercase jeff
The Nats are giving Rendon a look at 2b right now at AA. Do you think Espinosa forces their hand or can he stave off being replaced for the rest of the year?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I think it helps that Espinosa has had the wrist-injury excuse, but time’s going to be a factor and he’ll need to shape up within a few weeks if he wants to hold on

10:22
Comment From James
Is it crazy to think that the Padres are only a few moves away from contending next season? Lineup seems solid (Headley, Quentin, Grandal, Alonso, Gyorko) and Lubeke, Wieland + Erlin should join Cashner soon in rotation.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: They’re in a decent place. They need their good pitchers to get healthy and stay healthy

10:22
Comment From Tim
Are you concerned about Verlander? Yesterday was a step in the right direction but he still gave up 3 runs.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not concerned at all, really

10:23
Comment From Arman
So do you Shoppach now being a regular for the rest of the year? If so (or not) your thoughts on that?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Zunino will come up at some point, but Shoppach will handle a big share, and whatever, why not? What’s the preferable alternative?

10:24
Comment From Nick
Has there been any analysis done on the effect of starting pitching “feeding off of each other” during runs of successful starting pitching performances? I hear this term all the time, but it seems less than worthless.

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think you assume correctly

10:25
Comment From Dan
So, the Royals. One of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. What’s the logic behind that trade now?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: The logic behind the trade hasn’t changed. And the pitching’s been better. But the Royals have been about what they were supposed to be, since the younger position players haven’t taken a step forward. It’s looking, still, like a mistake, but then it’s not like Wil Myers is tearing things up in the minors, soooo

10:26
Comment From sea salt
is Didi Gregarius’ power for real?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: As with Segura, his SLG doesn’t belong in the mid-.500s, but he’s not punchless. Demonstrated that just yesterday! Think I’ll be writing about Gregorius in a little

10:27
Comment From Guest
How soon do plate discipline stats stabilize? I don’t expect Jordan Schafer to be anything more than a 4th OFer, but he has been seeing a lot of pitches per at-bat (4.322 so far vs. 3.99 last year). New approach?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Still looking for his hundredth plate appearance of the season. At this point I’m not the least bit convinced he’s changed markedly

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: With something like O-Swing%, you probably need a few hundred plate appearances, because O-Swings are relatively infrequent

10:29
Comment From Nick
Is Jose Valverde the real deal?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: He is okay and not good!

10:30
Comment From Scott
Stupid question, perhaps, but wouldn’t it stand to reason the harder you hit the ball, the higher your BABIP is? Maybe I’m reading this stat incorrectly, but when someone talks about high BABIP, it usually is in the context of being due for regression

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Personally I prefer BABIP over LD%. Some BABIPs are just too out there to be reliable, but I think it’s a good indicator of who has and has not been making quality contact

10:31
Comment From Andy
Why do you call home runs “dingers”? Why not “dongs”?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know

10:31
Comment From Guest
OK: I’m buying your assessment of Wacha at AAA, but the question then is where did the Ks go?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to know! Could’ve been emphasizing a certain strategy or approach in the minors, sacrificing some short-term strikeouts for longer-term sustainability

10:31
Comment From Oscar
Do you think Cashner’s Ks are going to rise to the levels he’s shown in the past or is the 6-7 K/9 range more or less where he’s going to be in the majors?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get better, but he’s probably making a conscious effort to be more “efficient” like a lot of these guys do

10:32
Comment From Aaron
I take almost everything you say to be true. Is that a smart decision?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how smart you are

10:32
Comment From TImothy
Damn Gose is fast.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Hey look, he has a skill

10:33
Comment From Guest
Jeff you must sad Mune K has taken his antics to Toronto.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’m thrilled that he’s still in baseball and I don’t think he would’ve been as lovable in a second go with Seattle. Didn’t seem ripe for a sequel

10:33
Comment From Guest
Why did I think that Clayton Richard was a good pitcher? Is it simply by name association with Clayton Kershaw?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Or because he was a guy of note in the Jake Peavy trade. But yeah, we’ve probably all been fooled

10:34
Comment From Coodle
Calling a Ben Revere HR tonight. Just don’t publish this. Don’t even dare do something like that.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I would die

10:34
Comment From SMC
Re: Sabathia. How much trouble are the Yankees in with him? Kuroda’s peripherals don’t back up his performance, and Sabathia looks *very* hittable. Is this the beginning of the end for him?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia’s contact rate: 76%

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia’s contact rate, 2011-2012: 76%

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not getting any better, but he’s still all right

10:35
Comment From jeff
Wil Myers or Oscar Tavares better in the bigs this season?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Taveras!

10:35
Comment From Jay
You seem a little low on Wacha. Keep in mind that the prospect hounds are high on him because of his plus plus change and dominance in spring more than his 9 starts with a low K rate while working on his curve at AAA

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not down on Wacha. He’s a very good prospect. I’m just naturally cautious with prospects because it’s too easy for people to get overexcited. Performances matter. Wacha’s performance in Triple-A matters. “I don’t think he’ll become an immediate ace” shouldn’t be interpreted as “down on.” There are issues, is all

10:37
Comment From Chris
How is Taveras going to even get any playing time to have a better year than Myers? Who do the Cardinals sit to get him full time work?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s the bigger problem. But all else being equal, I’d take Taveras

10:38
Comment From Owen
What should we make of big changes in IFFB%? Carlos Gomez has barely any pop-ups this year, and it’s a major driver of his success. Seems like he should regress, but Joey Votto has shown it can be a skill.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting, but the IFFB sample sizes are so small that it takes a while to establish a new true-talent level. Could be indicative of better consistency with Gomez’s contact, or could be a fluke, but there are lots of reasons to be excited about Gomez right now

10:40
Comment From David
What on Earth happened to Brandon Morrow?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Got worse

10:40
Comment From Guest
Which 1B is most likely to take a dive in the 2nd half: Trumbo, Loney, or Davis?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Loney

10:40
Comment From B-Race Miles
Valverde: Is he just a ticking time bomb or is there something to be said about him gradually getting confidence (and velocity) back?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: His velocity isn’t back. People just overreact to small samples for relievers, in both directions. He’s neither this good, nor that bad

10:42
Comment From Phil-up
I don’t know why you claim that you’re not a baseball expect, I find you quite knowledgable and charming

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: It’s my excuse for not knowing anything about the Mets

10:42
Comment From Rox in My Pants
Heyward a good buy low?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, because he’s a good player!

10:42
Comment From Nick
What’s wrong with Victor Martinez? His HR/FB has been in decline for the past 5 years but 2.9 % is inexcusable for a full-time DH.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Everything’s there, except the pop. May has been better, so maybe Martinez is simply warming up, but the Tigers ought to be thinking about alternatives.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Martinez isn’t this bad, but success was a while ago

10:44
Comment From juan pierres mustache
You can be a baseball expert without knowing about the mets in the same way you can be a food expert without knowing about McDonald’s

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Bam!

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: And now I have to wrap this up and get to work on other things.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming by and participating, I apologize for the things I didn’t get to, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time. Have wonderful days



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Bruce
Guest
Bruce
3 years 1 month ago

Do you think the Phillies owners will wake up anytime soon and realize Amaro is out of his element as a GM?

Ryan Seacrest
Guest
Ryan Seacrest
3 years 1 month ago

No, they are too loyal. Took them WAY too long to fire Ed Wade.

CONSTERNATIONNATION
Guest
CONSTERNATIONNATION
3 years 1 month ago

What do you people hope to glean from these conversations?

juan pierres mustache
Guest
juan pierres mustache
3 years 1 month ago

a moderate amount of entertainment and occasionally an interesting baseball thing to consider the next time i’m watching baseball

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