Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/6/14

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hey there everybody. Still sick, still tardy like usual, but still present to talk about baseball. So let’s talk about baseball!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: And probably exclusively baseball!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Except for this:

9:08
Comment From Tim
Holy crap is this a new record for lateness

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I was just as late last week!

9:08
Comment From Cory
Victor Martinez has a 3.5% strikeout rate

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: And there’s the whole thing where he hasn’t struck out looking since like last May 21. Of course that doesn’t have to be a *good* thing — Delmon Young doesn’t take called third strikes, either — but it’s hard to argue with the results

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I love the guys who don’t strike out and also still hit for more than slap singles in this day and age

9:10
Comment From Zack
Yonder Alonso- bad BABIP luck or is he just no good?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Both

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Regress the BABIP and he still doesn’t have any power

9:10
Comment From Phanatic
What’s the deal with Domonic Brown? Any hope for a productive season?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not the only guy in baseball where everything looks normal but the power and the fly balls. Assuming the power didn’t just disappear for absolutely no reason, the homers will start to come and between now and the end of the year he’ll probably look a lot like himself

9:12
Comment From Jays89
Thoughts on Jose Bautistas 2014 season so far? Top 5 player in baseball?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like he’s back, right? Not that he ever left, but the feeling is that he’s back to what he was at his best

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Not sure about top-5 player but definitely top-5 hitter

9:13
Comment From Darren
What are your thoughts on the Zips projection for a 5 way tie in the ALEast this year.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even begin to imagine writing about that

9:13
Comment From _David_
Is Brad Miller going to share SS with WFB the rest of the season?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine you’ll see something like a platoon until/unless Miller stops being terrible. Alternatively if he *really* sucks then down the stretch you could even maybe see Chris Taylor or Nick Franklin if he isn’t off doing outfield stuff

9:15
Comment From B
Any possibility of getting a “wildest contact” series started? I’d like to see how batters fare when they actually hit really bad pitches.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll think about it, but these things are so much work that I’m already intimidated by the prospect

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Does make sense at least as a one-off or two-off, though. Maybe ASB and after the season ends

9:16
Comment From _David_
Are we seeing peak Zunino? 103 wRC+ on a .290 OBP, seemingly good defense…

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully peak Zunino doesn’t have 14 strikeouts for every unintentional walk

9:16
Comment From Calvin
Best sell high candidates: Chavez, Evoaldi, Ventura?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I am answering a fantasy question to the best of my abilities!

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: My assumption is that people still don’t really know anything about Chavez or Eovaldi. Ventura gets a ton of press so I imagine he could bring the most back

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say he’s worse than the others, but that might be the best way to maximize the group

9:17
Comment From Frustrated in Philly
I give up trying to pick the right pitcher to start each week. Any pitcher I start gets absolutely no run support.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: This is one reason why I pretty much never genuinely answer fantasy questions

9:18
Comment From Bick
At what point does Jeff Samardzija decide he’ll no longer throw a pitch for the disaster that is the Cubs?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: When he gets traded to another team in July

9:19
Comment From Guest
Are you a believer in Wieters’s mechanical adjustments and him crushing RHP?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting thing about Wieters:

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Career: 42% grounders
2014: 24% grounders

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: It’s pretty much all gone to line drives and now for the first time in forever Wieters is running a healthy BABIP. It does look like something has changed, and while the change probably isn’t this dramatic, we’ve all been waiting for him to step forward

9:21
Comment From Curt
Dee Gordon will go back to being Dee Gordon in 3…2…

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I buy that he’s better; I still don’t buy that he’s *good*. Maybe that makes me cold, but I’m pretty skeptical about those skillsets

9:21
Comment From Cory
V-Mart’s caught looking streak actually ended last night to Jarred Cosart of all people =(

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Hey! A post! Thank you, Victor Martinez!

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Martinez just couldn’t believe that Cosart would throw a strike

9:22
Comment From Luca Brasi
Hello Jeff. Do you think Roenis Elias can continue to pitch this effectively? Thanks.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably a 100-105 FIP- kind of starting pitcher

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Which is better than I expected, and makes him maybe even a No. 4. But I could be suffering from recency bias and just two months ago I assumed he was nothing

9:24
Comment From Jays Fan II
Hi Jeff. Thanks for doing the chat even though you’re sick. Thoughts on what happens to Juan Francisco now that Adam Lind is back this week?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s put it this way: while Francisco has inarguably been productive for the Jays, he has a career WAR of 1.1, and more than half of that has come in his last 59 plate appearances

9:24
Comment From Kris
Will the braves win another game?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not during this chat

9:24
Comment From Dustin
Troy Tulowitzki accumulated 1.2 WAR while we waited for you.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably the closest player to Mike Trout on the planet in terms of true talent

9:26
Comment From Dan
Where are you at on Nick Castellanos? Where’s his ceiling?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like thinking in terms of ceilings, because everybody in baseball has an extraordinarily high ceiling. I think Castellanos often looks the part of a 22-year-old, and he often looks the part of a 28-year-old. I suspect it’ll be an up-and-down season but in the long run I expect him to have several brushes with 3-4 WAR

9:28
Comment From Washington Irving
Sabathia has a 2.95 xFIP and surprising peripherals. Think his results will start matching up?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost inevitable

9:28
Comment From Charlie
On pitch FX data, some recordings will measure a pitch’s movement that doesn’t make much sense. For example, some pitchers have their curveball rising up (positive v movement)? And some have their cutters moving away like a 2 seamer?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: A 2-seamer might break ten inches arm-side. A cutter might break one or two. That’s going to be unique to every pitcher. And positive v movement doesn’t mean a pitch is rising up — it means it didn’t drop as much as a standard pitch with no spin

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes there are just classification errors, and the algorithm confuses a curve with a slurve or a slider, but there are a lot of varieties of curveballs out there

9:31
Comment From Tito Santana
What do you think of C.J. Cron? Is he here to stay or a certainty to be back in the minors once Hamilton and Calhoun return?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: He could get a longer leash as long as Ibanez sucks, but I’m not buying him as an impact hitter today

9:32
Comment From Cole
How much do you value batted ball distance as a pperipheral? Or is it just a function of other ones?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of it, but I don’t use it, and the data we have access to is far from perfect. Even the teams with actual HITf/x data have failed to achieve much in the way of breakthrough analysis

9:33
Comment From mhad
Hi Jeff! I can’t seem to figure out how to embed a table or graph into a community post. Can you tell me how, or point me to resource that can? Thanks!

9:33
9:34
Jeff Sullivan: For an image, upload it somewhere and then embed using HTML or the media embedder

9:35
Comment From Charles
Brad Miller – looks to be slowly turning it around. Striking out less, more line drives. Still hope for him?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: 7 for his last 45 with 11 strikeouts, and yesterday’s hit just got lost in the lights by the outfielder

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Still plenty of hope for him, but it’s not like he isn’t sucking

9:36
Comment From Work is boring
If a magical genie who’s magic gave you a million dollars but the caveat was that Hawk Harrelson had to follow you around and narrate everything for the rest of your life (he’s immortal)…what say you?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Easy no

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I would basically never have sex

9:36
Comment From Lefty
Where is George Springer’s power, is it just simply SSS or does he need to go back to AAA to work on something (maybe his confidence)?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Anybody with his minor-league contact rates clearly has holes that better pitches can exploit. That was no secret — Springer has always swung and missed, even against bad pitchers, and now he’s up against the best pitchers. There’s not really anything left for him to do in the minors, because he’s mastered the minors, but the majors are the biggest adjustment he’ll ever have to face

9:38
Comment From Ghost Hands
Are the Giants really this good? They swept a series in Atlanta without getting a hit with RISP.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not, but there’s no reason why they can’t win 90 games

9:38
Comment From Dan
Troy Tulowitzki: good at doing baseball things? He might end Trout’s reign of leading MLB in WAR.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’s one of baseball’s only real five-tool players

9:39
Comment From Schoop Jardine
Noticed the other day that Jonathan “If it doesn’t fit…” Schoop wasn’t wearing batting gloves. Is that, as the kids say, a thing?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Brad Miller doesn’t either

9:40
Comment From B
FIP isn’t really “fielding independent”. If you have a good defense behind you, they convert more balls in play into outs giving you fewer chances for Ks (and BBs and HRs). Are there versions of FIP that take into account K%, BB%, and HR% instead of Ks, BBs, and HRs?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: It’s already expressed as a rate, right? It puts everything over innings

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Now, there’s a legitimate argument that by using innings, it isn’t exactly fielding independent, and tango knows that. But the beauty of FIP is its simplicity, and that requires a few concessions that ultimately don’t make very much of a difference

9:42
Comment From Robbie
What becomes of Alex Guerrero if Dee Gordon continues to be a valuable offensive player?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they teach him third

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they trade one

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a good problem

9:44
Comment From Ccq
Any thoughts on the ball/strike calls in the Yanks/Angels game last night? How much did that 1-0 strike call to Gardner really effect the outcome of the the game? It was a pretty bad call..

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to lie: I didn’t see it in live action

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: But looking at it now, it seems like it was a borderline strike?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: It definitely wasn’t an obvious, 100% ball

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: With any borderline call, one side is going to be upset. That’s the nature of gray areas. Maybe Derek Jeter shouldn’t have hit into a first-pitch double play. Maybe Gardner shouldn’t have struck out. It was a rough call on the Yankees, but they still had a 1-and-1 count with none out and the bases loaded

9:46
Comment From Ethan
Tulo or Trout, if both are healthy?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Trout

9:47
Comment From Pineapple
Are Masahiro Tanaka’s home run problems something to worry about or is it just a matter of learning not to throw high strikes?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s not going to run the highest dinger rate in baseball, but I could see that as being his one weakness, where he has a pretty flat fastball and a tendency to elevate the occasional splitter

9:47
Comment From Garret Richards
How about my stuff?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Glad you’re finally doing something with it

9:48
Comment From Dan
Are we concerned about Miguel Cabrera yet? Not walking, strikeouts way up, power nowhere to be found.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: .354/.380/.521 over the last couple weeks. We know what this is, right? I just wrote about it the other day. He’s actively recovering from offseason surgery. It’s not an inexplicable early slump — it’s explicable, and I suspect he’s going to be okay, and soon

9:49
Comment From Ron Swanson
can we stop with the Brad Miller questions?!

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Well how did that help

9:50
Comment From Brendan
Is there a stat that normalizes a player’s numbers to his career BABIP?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Not that I’ve seen around

9:50
Comment From Brendan
Carlos Santana: BB% rate is up, K% is up only slightly. BABIP is .154. Can all his struggles be chalked up to the latter?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of why he’d suddenly be a disaster. When you have one month of data, I think all the typical stathead stereotypes should apply. Regress all BABIPs. Regress all HR/FBs and all ERAs to xFIPs.

9:53
Comment From Lefty
Robbie Cano and Davide Wright are two veteran stars that seem to be floundering a bit so far. I guess I worry more about Wright for some reason, but are either really showing sharp decline or is it just aging plus SSS?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: They’re struggling in different ways, right? Cano is putting everything on the ground, Wright has a lopsided K/BB. As always always always, bet on the elite players until you have more than this small amount of evidence. The numbers can be slow to catch on to developing trends, but I’ve learned not to be too aggressive in declaring that someone’s in decline

9:54
Comment From toot toot
how would you even handle a 5-way tie, anyway

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Go on a walk and let the MLB officials sort it out

9:55
Comment From Joe
Minus James Jones, is there any outfield help on the way?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Franklin

9:55
Comment From Robbie
Kershaw taking a month-long vacation after throwing as many innings as he did in 2013… blessing in disguise?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Popular theory. I’ll say sure, why not?

9:55
Comment From Robbie
At this point, any guys who put up big surprising numbers in the first month of the season that you suspect won’t regress back to being awful?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Really interested in Blackmon, also interested in Dozier.

9:58
Comment From Lawrence
The position player most likely to get moved at the trade deadline is _____________. The pitcher most likely to get moved at the trade deadline is ________________.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Asdrubal Cabrera?, Jeff Samardzija

9:59
Comment From Matt
So Dean Mitzel visited our class last week and I mentioned you had said to say hi in a previous chat. He said: “ask him about the time we wrestled.”

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: We wrestled in front of one of his classes and afterward he suddenly panicked that I could have him fired for inappropriate behavior

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: It was adorable

10:00
Comment From Sadwick
You could save time onthe wildest contact series by making it historical and just using clips of Vladimir Guerrero.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I think last year like the top 3 submissions would’ve been Jean Segura

10:01
Comment From Brad
Any way to quantify a WAR for managers? Probably not, but what’s your guess how many wins Washington costs his team each year with overuse of bunting?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Since Washington took over in 2007, the Rangers are fourth in the AL in bunts

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Which is to say, yeah, in the big picture it probably pretty much doesn’t matter

10:02
Comment From Jon
So it looks like the Tigers are going to go wire-to-wire right? The AL Central is already looking like a complete dumpster fire.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: They always had the easiest path, and now it’s even easier

10:02
Comment From Mike
What’s the book on Jose Abreu thus far?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Pitch to somebody else

10:03
Comment From Bret
Do you think Derek Jeter will be on the All Star team?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Probably

10:03
Comment From john
thoughts on recent granderson?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s not a terrible baseball player yet, so one should expect the occasional hot streak

10:04
Comment From Ron Swanson
people come here for fantasy advice, that is a little arrogant…

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Then they should ask fantasy questions to someone who has played fantasy baseball at least once within the past decade

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t give good fantasy advice because I don’t know how it works. It’s that simple. YOU DON’T WANT MY FANTASY BASEBALL ADVICE

10:04
Comment From Jon
You think there’s any chance George Springer gets sent back down? Guy has been a trainwreck. Striking out a ton, not showing power, and he somehow already has 5 or 6 fielding errors.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Some chance, definitely, but it’s not like the Astros are above fielding a disaster, and they might not think Springer has anything remaining to learn against bad pitchers

10:05
Comment From Guy
What would you say is your chat answer %?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Oh man. 10%? I’m usually lagging behind

10:05
Comment From hmmm
Who of the underwhelming sluggers (Crush, E5, Miggy), regains form the quickest?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera, on account of being the best

10:07
Comment From Tom
How much of a team’s variance from projections—either better or worse—is traceable to the unpredictability of bullpens? I’m thinking of the Brewers and the Giants this year.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: The highest bullpen WPA belongs to the 15-18 San Diego Padres

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: What’s weirder — that the Brewers and Giants have had good bullpens, or that the Marlins are third in position-player WAR?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Your question is a valid one, and bullpens are definitely tricky due to sample sizes and unpredictable conversions and personnel. There are lots of other factors though, so it’s only a fairly small component

10:09
Comment From Sadwick
What are the Braves are most likely to do with Dan Uggla: A) Start reducing his playing time for someone like Pastornicky B) Finally call up La Stella and replace him permanently C) Hang on for a few more months of “veteran presence” D) Have him mysteriously retire to a “farm” somewhere and have a fan night where the first 100 fans get free hot dogs

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like he’ll disappear soon. No trade value, no compelling reason to keep him around on the bench. It’s just about time to pull the plug, and then it’s about choosing between underwhelming alternatives

10:10
Comment From Robert
When are the Red Sox going to end the Grady Sizemore experiment?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: The whole outfield has a combined negative WAR. It’s not like anyone’s really stood out

10:11
Comment From Nick
If the MVP was decided after April, would Jose Abreu win?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think it would actually be Trout

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Angels weren’t in first, but neither were the White Sox

10:12
Comment From Dave
Any chance A-Gonz surpasses his career high of 40 homers?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely not seeing that

10:13
Comment From Art Vandelay
On the BP podcast this morning they were discussing giving Stanton the Barry Bonds treatment. Thoughts?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not good enough to justify that, but there are definitely times when you wonder why he’s seeing strikes

10:13
Comment From James
Do think the Marlins are doing a good job developing the young hitters, like Yelich, ozuna, hechevarria?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see reason to believe they’re doing anything particularly wrong

10:14
Comment From Catoblepas
I know the concern with Tulowitzki has always been health, but is this him minus nagging injuries? Or just good luck + insane skill that has always existed?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s not a 15-WAR true talent

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: But figure, projections and expectations are always built around probability, which accounts for time spent at less than 100%. Which means when a guy *is* 100%, he should be better than the expected numbers. But you don’t stay 100% forever, because aches and pains build, for everybody

10:15
Comment From Kevin
How serious is the Braves’ slump? Are they still NL East favorites?

10:15
10:16
Comment From Klcr
Is it time to start talking about the 2013 Pirates being a fluke, rather than the beginning of a new era?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: With the amount of talent they have in the organization, if anything 2014 might end up being the fluke

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of people identified that the Pirates overachieved in 2013, but 2013 wasn’t the year they were supposed to reach their ceiling. That was kind of a happy coincidence. They’re still building, and they’re getting close

10:17
Comment From john
Do the phils blow it up?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: They should, but…

10:18
Comment From Robbie
Kemp’s K rate is way up but everything else seems to signify that he’s on his way back to being a top 20 hitter, right?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: If he’s going to have more strikeouts and probably a lower BABIP, then he’ll likely fall short of being a top-20 hitter. But he can still be a real good hitter

10:18
Comment From Ron
Drew and Morales, at this point any chance one of them signs before the draft?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Only if the Mariners get desperate

10:19
Comment From john
So yesterday I asked about dillon gee, and the response had to do with soft tossing righties dont have a lot of wiggle room. Why are soft tossing lefties considered better bets than righties? Im mostly curious why dillon gee gets no love despite being literally one of the best pitchers in baseball since last May.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Gee’s FIP and xFIP both start with 4

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: last year they both started with 4

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Clearly he’s done well to prevent runs from scoring, but I don’t see much in the way of compelling evidence that that’s what he really is

10:20
Comment From Paris Bobo
When Stroman slots into the Jays rotation, does he stay there down the stretch?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I doubt he’ll get the boot

10:20
Comment From Josh
Brian Dozier has doubled his walk rate, exceeded his BsR, and increased his ISO from last year (so far). Could this be a real sign of improvement or is it just that anyone can look that good for a month?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Solid hitter. He’s neat!

10:21
Comment From benj
Is this just what Rajai Davis is if you let him play full time? Were the Blue Jays platooning an excellent leadoff hitter?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t see my response to the Dozier question. I issued a response to the Dozier question. Stupid CiL

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Anyhow, yeah, this is what Davis is, plus 100 BABIP points

10:22
Comment From ab
when is polanco being called up

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Have to have this in every chat at least once

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Answer hasn’t changed since the start of the year

10:22
Comment From Dewey
Has there been any studies on potential effects of climate change on the game?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Fewer rainouts! More offense!

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Wow, such fortune!

10:23
Comment From Dan
Thoughts on Ortiz? Does he still have enough in the tank for an elite year?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why he wouldn’t

10:24
Comment From Goat
Samardizja swstr% 2012, 2013, 2014: 12.1%, 10.5%, 8.2%. What’s going wrong? And out of interest what sort of prospect could have been/could be received for each respective Shark ‘vintage’? In hinsdsight, were there warning signs?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I bet this is deliberate — increased use of his sinker, increased pitching down to try to get easy outs and avoid the dingers

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: The stuff, as far as I can tell, is still there, so he’s still incredibly appealing as a front-of-the-rotation starter

10:26
Comment From Something else to consider
RE: Victor Martinez striking out looking – perhaps the pitch wasn’t a “strike”. Someone who never strikes out looking most likely has superior understanding of the standard strike zone. Having not seen the pitch, I cannot say. Just positing a theory.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Or that person just swings all the time

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll repeat: Delmon Young pretty much never strikes out looking

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: It could also just be that Martinez didn’t end up in too many two-strike counts because he makes so much contact when he swings

10:26
Comment From Alex
Why don’t Contact% and SwStrk% add up to 100%?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Contact% is contact/swings, SwS% is whiffs/pitches. Different denominators

10:27
Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
I know that RBIs are a pretty useless stat for analysis, but do runs have any use or are they also pretty useless?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I like to look at career runs per time on base, to get some estimate of baserunning value

10:27
Comment From john
if floyd has a good start tonight, any chance he sticks in the rotation over Harang or Wood back to pen?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you don’t build around Aaron Harang

10:28
Comment From Alex
Do you think that a pitcher’s ability to work late into games in a learnable skill?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Pacing oneself, sure

10:28
Comment From zurzles
Thoughts on Cabrera ROS?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Melky: fine, Miguel: great, Asdrubal: okay, Jolbert: why?

10:29
Comment From Catoblepas
Would you have said that about Tulo before this season? Did you think he was capable of this, just not quite achieving his peak? Or does this represent a surprising jump forward?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we’re seeing a real true jump forward. He’s always been amazing when he’s been able to play at or near his fullest capability

10:29
Comment From Jake
Any precedent for a true talent bump in talent that Pujols has been seeing? Great player descends into mediocrity for 2 years+, ascends back to good-greatness?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Well, unlike last year, this year he can use his legs

10:32
Comment From Michael
who is the first big pitching prospect to get called up not that storman is up?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Bauer count?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Gausman

10:32
Comment From GK
If Jeff Samardzija continues to pitch this effectively what kind of package can the Cubs expect to receive for his services? Will it be better than what they supposedly turned down during the offseason?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be no worse, which is why the Cubs hung on to him in the first place. They’ll do well although I’d say it’ll be short of a real blockbuster

10:33
Comment From Sirras One
Will the Marlins turn back into a pumpkin or are they really this much better than expected?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I can squint and see them as a team that scrapes .500. But I think something like 77 wins is the likelihood. Fascinating team, though

10:33
Comment From Josh
Any thoughts on Glen Perkins’ contract (3 yrs, 10.3 mil with a 4.5 mil team option in 2016)? I remember last trade deadline Dave advocated trading him because he thought he’d cost too much for a rebuilding team, but is this price a mini-steal?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is Perkins only wants to play in Minnesota

10:34
Comment From Sirras One
Closer at the end of the season: the NL East or AL East?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: NLE between two teams, ALE between several teams

10:34
Comment From gregory
Thoughts on Samardzija throwing a lot more 2 seamers this season?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Historical dinger problems

10:34
Comment From Steve
What’s the main purpose of a manager drawing an ejection? Assuming it’s intentional, since it’s clear the line falls somewhere before scream and toss hat.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Well sometimes you just want to lash out. In the heat of competition you’re not always acting rationally. Sometimes you’re also trying to fire up your team, and let’s face it, most ejected managers continue to manage

10:35
Comment From Devin
Do you think we’ll see either Paxton or Walker in Seattle before the All-Star break?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, both

10:36
Comment From Thomas
For all his struggles, Domonic Brown has a crazy reverse split this season after posting more traditional numbers. After how many PA’s can this kind of thing be taken seriously?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: More than you get in one season, or two seasons

10:36
Comment From Terry Collins
Teach me to bullpen good

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t, likes Mariners

10:37
Comment From Robbie
It looks like Brian Wilson is concealing an injury at this point. Any thoughts on his velocity drop?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there is a velocity drop?

10:38
Comment From Mychal
Do you think there is a common thread (or threads) that run through pitchers who routinely have an ERA lower than their FIP (or routinely have one higher than their FIP)? Is something as simple as pitching better/worse with runners on base?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Left-handed, fly ball tendencies, hard to steal on

10:38
Comment From The Dude
Gallo has immense power, but he’d probably be a 40-45% K guy in the MLB. Is that sustainable?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Not as stated

10:38
Comment From Jeff T
The Pirates say Polanco is still in minors because they want him to work on some things. What aspect of his game is he in need of work on?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: The not-costing-too-much-in-the-future part

10:39
Comment From Rick
Should Reds fans be optimistic about their playoff chances (Cueto has been outstanding, just took 3/4 from the Brewers, etc.) or should they be looking to next year (due to injuries to Bruce, Latos, etc.)

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: There’s an in-between, right? No sense in giving up on 2014 in early May, but their odds are lower than they were at the start, and their odds at the start weren’t outstanding

10:40
Comment From Gladys
From a stuff perspective, Brandon McCarthy is the best he’s ever been. What’s the rest of his season look like?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: rates in the mid-3s and a month on the disabled list

10:40
Comment From gregory
How much control do you think a pitcher has over the batted ball types he allows?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Quite a bit, in that there are proven groundball pitchers and flyball pitchers

10:41
Comment From FI-curious
Last Z. Walters question, I promise (and I’m only asking in case you don’t address it yourself:) Is it a bad idea to take a prospect, even a B-level one, and make him pinch-hit off your MLB bench for several weeks? I would think that might stunt development or even create a funk of some kind.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not ideal, but I also don’t think it’s a devastating problem like some people assert. I don’t think prospects are as easy to ruin as people worry about

10:42
Comment From Jon
Probability that we see Buxton this year?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Mayyyyybe in September

10:42
Comment From bill williams
which mlb player reminds you most of a dog. which mlb player reminds you most of a cat

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki, Ichiro

10:44
Comment From Rafael
What do you think about P Fielder struggles? Is the start of the decline?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Started a year ago

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: He shouldn’t be one of the worst players in baseball, like this, but whatever optimism there was in March, a lot of that is out the window

10:45
Comment From Greg
I know Adam Jones is a bit overaggressive and last year’s BA isn’t likely to return, but where is his power?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I think power is one of the last things to stabilize. Sometimes all you need is a short hot streak to get everything back to normal

10:45
Comment From Mike
What is the most undervalued, or unpaid, skill in MLB right now?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Good changeup?

10:45
Comment From The Dude
How do you like how the NHL playoffs are shaking out?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Well, Ottawa isn’t in them anywhere, so I’m not a fan

10:46
Comment From Tom
What happens to the Braves when Justin Upton stops hitting HR. His K rate is really high.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes there can be home runs and strikeouts

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Welp! I need to get going, have a couple phone calls to make

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


13 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/6/14”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Yonder Alonso says:

    Why am I so terrible?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • atoms says:

      You’d think that if anyone would know the answer to that, it would be Yonder himself. Why would he need to ask Jeff Sullivan?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • baycommuter says:

      By year’s end, you’ll be exiled to the farm and King Wenceslas will see you and ask “Yonder peasant, who is he?”

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Thunder Joe Thurston says:

    You’re a hard man who plays a hard 9. Thunder Joe understands.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Thunder Joe Thurston says:

      Thunder Joe refuses to comply with rules and chose not to reply, but instead to make his response a new post. Some might say I made an error, I say I play a hard 9.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jimmer says:

    ‘Comment From Jake
    Any precedent for a true talent bump in talent that Pujols has been seeing? Great player descends into mediocrity for 2 years+, ascends back to good-greatness?’

    2012 he hit .285/.343/.516, had an OPS+ of 138, with 30 HR and over 100 RBI. That’s not the Pujols we knew, but I’m not sure those numbers equal mediocrity.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. John Stamos says:

    Did Jeff almost pull off a doge meme quote?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. The Kudzu Kid says:

    The 2nd wildest contact swing of the year is this one by Starlin Castro. #1 on the list is Peter Bourjos fouling off a pitch way inside and five feet off the ground (in the 11th inning on April 11th), but I don’t have public video of that one or mad GIF-making skillz.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Shrewd Cat says:

    Really? I thought Hawk Harrelson would be great at narrating sex.
    http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/70087564/v32386321/tbcws-abreu-wins-it-with-a-walkoff-grand-slam/?c_id=mlb
    ‘YES……YES……YES.’

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Schuxu says:

      “Youcanputitontheboard… YES”
      “Hegone”

      Surprising how good his catchphrases fit to sex commenting.

      And wow do I really hope that I manage to forget about this when I have sex the next time. Else there is no way I’ll be able to put it on the board.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Park Chan ho's Beard says:

    please stop genuinely answering fantasy questions! just be snarky and/or treat them like real baseball questions. It’s so much more entertaining that way. There are like 4 other chats where people will answer stupid fantasy questions.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>