Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/7/13

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Okay! Let’s start late like usual.
9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Ordinary caveats:
9:02
Jeff Sullivan: (1) I am not a fantasy baseball expert
(2) I am not a baseball expert
(3) There are a lot of questions that go in the queue
9:04
Jeff Sullivan: One-time caveat:

(4) I’ve been out of town due to a wedding and I just got back late last night so I’m not at all caught up on what’s going on in baseball. Six-day blind spot!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: So know ahead of time that this is going to be the least satisfying live chat in FanGraphs history. At least, in my FanGraphs history. I apologize and next week will be normal. You may see yourselves out.
9:05
Comment From Delusional Braves Fan
SIMMONS! Suck it haters

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody hates Andrelton Simmons but people do hate people who think other people are haters
9:05
Comment From Guest
Eno is being awesome again with his last piece on A.J. Ellis.
9:06
Jeff Sullivan: If the future of baseball writing is expertly blending analysis with player info/feedback then Eno is ahead of the curve, which might also explain the way that he looks. Eno is here from the future
9:06
Comment From Kevin
When will a team truly appreciate Brendan Ryan?
9:06
Jeff Sullivan: When he’s actually a good overall player
9:06
Comment From Timothy
Dave Cameron said you were on vacation last week. So fill us curious fangraphs readers in. Where did you go? What did you do? Whom did you go with?
9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Cape Cod wedding, and Oregon is prettier
9:07
Comment From Keyser Soze
Jose Fernadez’s fastball doesn’t move very much. How much of that is that he came from High-A and how much of that is pure “stuff”?
9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Give me one moment to confirm…
9:09
Jeff Sullivan: By the numbers, it doesn’t seem problematic or unusual to me. Looks like he throws a four-seamer and a two-seamer. The four-seamer has less horizontal movement and it’s thrown kind of over the top, so I don’t see any cause for alarm
9:10
Jeff Sullivan: To more directly answer your question, I don’t think a hasty promotion would reduce the movement on a guy’s pitches. If a guy were moved too fast, the pitches would be the same but the location could be poor
9:10
Comment From zack
The Yankees have been getting excellent production from Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner and last year they got freak years from Ichiro and Chaves. Is it possible that many teams are undervaluing older, injury prone veterans and that the Yankees are exploiting a market inefficiency?
9:11
Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible that the pendulum has swung a little too far in favor of youth and cost control, leaving the old and infirm slightly undervalued, but I don’t think this is a major market inefficiency. It could just be a minor market inefficiency
9:11
Jeff Sullivan: #KennyLofton
9:12
Comment From Guest
Royals, I mean the Royals, like the Royals are, Royals? What to make of them?
9:13
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals are 17-11. Last August the Royals went 17-11. Last July they went 7-19, and last September they went 12-17. Just give them time, a lot more time. They are an interesting team but just because it’s May now doesn’t mean it isn’t still frighteningly early
9:13
Comment From Guest
Do you see the Senators pulling off this series against the ‘Habs?
9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Yes!
9:13
Comment From Brian
Rick Ankiel has a much higher 2013 wRC+ than Josh Hamilton
9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Josh Hamilton has been completely terrible
9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, what if it *doesn’t* get better?
9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Slugging .296!
9:14
Jeff Sullivan: But, same note as with the Royals. It’s May 7.
9:15
Comment From Keyser Soze
Posey and Bumgarner really spent an outrageous amount of time whining about the zone last night. Thoughts? http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=5&day=6&year=2013&game=gid_2013_05_06_phimlb_sfnmlb_1%2F&prevDate=56
9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see much to complain about
9:16
Comment From Paul
Which team has impressed you the most a month into the season?
9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know whether to say the Cardinals or the Rockies
9:17
Jeff Sullivan: one of those teams, is the answer, to me
9:17
Comment From GoGoMrPoPo
Jeff, thoughts on the turmoil roiling ‘neath the elms of your dear old Trinity?
9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a clue what you’re talking about
9:18
Comment From Mike
Is Middlebrooks overmatched? What’s your thought on his future?
9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I think when players don’t walk, pitchers will make adjustments to exploit that, and then it’s on the hitters to re-adjust back. Middlebrooks, presumably, is in the midst of that process, and I think in the future he will be an adequate regular player who is far from being a superstar
9:20
Comment From Dan
Excited for potential World Series preview tonight? Nats/Tigers
9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball isn’t going to truly excite me until the NHL playoffs are over. There’s still a whole lot of baseball to go.
9:22
Comment From Kris
Is Gattis’ bat worth having him play in Left Field…?
9:23
Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth trying in the meantime. We don’t really know what Gattis’ bat is yet, and Heyward’s health has given the Braves a golden opportunity to experiment. Basically, we don’t yet know enough to answer this question
9:23
Comment From mr. anonymous
Paul Konerko.. His contact rates are all close to normal, except o-contact%, which is down drastically. His k% is up 5%. since contact rates should be fairly stable by now, what does this mean? is this who he is now? his babip is down roughly .050 so i expect his avg to climb a little, but with the o-contact being down has he permanently gained some strikeouts?
9:24
Jeff Sullivan: This, to me, seems like a matter of sample sizes.
9:24
Jeff Sullivan: It’s easy to look at plate-discipline rates and think they should have more or less stabilized by now.
9:25
Jeff Sullivan: But what is O-Contact%? It’s contact rate based on O-Swing%, and players don’t rack up O-Swings all that fast. So even though it’s been a month of the season, Konerko’s working with a small denominator in this category.
9:26
Jeff Sullivan: If my calculations are correct, then based on Konerko’s player page, he’s attempted 47 swings at pitches out of the zone. That’s way too small a sample to conclude anything. So in short: I wouldn’t worry right now.
9:26
Comment From Jaack
Fun Barry Bonds fact of the day: Barry Bonds ranks sixth among all players in Fangraphs fielding runs, after only Brooks Robinson, Andruw Jones, Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith, and Roberto Clemente. Obviously older fielding numbers probably aren’t the most accurate, but still. Barry Bonds.
9:27
Jeff Sullivan: There could be an entire FanGraphs blog devoted solely to publishing new Barry Bonds fun facts every day.
9:27
Jeff Sullivan: It could even run on weekends
9:28
Comment From zack
What are the odds that Mark Trumbo finishes the year as the Angels most productive offensive player?
9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Not high, but higher than the Angels would probably like.
9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Monkey’s paw: “Mark Trumbo, in 2013, will out-produce Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mike Trout.”
Angels execs: “Well that sounds terrific! Thank you, monkey’s paw!”
9:31
Comment From zack
Have Ubaldo’s past couple starts given you any reason for optimism about him? The velocity seems better.
9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a while before I’m particularly interested
9:31
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
If you are NOT a baseball expert….who is?
9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Dave is a baseball expert. I’m a guy who finds things to write about baseball, sometimes in excruciating detail
9:32
Comment From Dgood
What do you think of Edwin Jackson as a buy low candidate? Or is the contract length too much for that?
9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t think it’s buying low to add a pitcher getting paid $52 million over the next four years. Jackson’s interesting, but he’s not about to be a bargain
9:33
Comment From Life Expert
Do you consider yourself a life expert though.
9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Getting there
9:33
Comment From Trey
BJ Upton is hitting an unsustainable amount of IFFB with a lower LD% than his career average. Is this a result of adjusting to NL pitching or will he hit fewer LD because of his approach?
9:34
Jeff Sullivan: B.J. Upton has 10 line drives. At his career rate, he’d have 12 line drives. So far he’s hit all of eight infield fly balls. Don’t worry about these things so early. The sample sizes are miniscule.
9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously Upton is struggling but it’s way too early to say he’s going to hit infield flies all the time now
9:35
Comment From Izzy
Why don’t the ZIPS ROS baserunning projections add up?
9:35
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. I’ll ask in our staff meeting this afternoon! Thank you, Izzy!
9:35
Comment From Prich
Your #1 pick in a fantasy breakfast draft?
9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Fried chicken and sweet potato waffle from the Screen Door here in Portland
9:37
Comment From Larry David
What do you make of Reddick? 32HR last year…on pace for 5 this year.
9:38
Jeff Sullivan: In a way this is a continuation of the way Reddick trailed off last year down the stretch. Which isnt’ in any way reassuring, but this isn’t the first we’ve seen of these struggles. I’m somewhat worried, and glad on Oakland’s behalf that when healthy they have outfield depth. I think Reddick will mostly work it out over time, though. He should be okay
9:38
Comment From Guest
Are the white sox the most boring non-astros/marlins team in the majors?
9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Subjectively, they’re in the running. The Twins have an entirely uninteresting pitching staff
9:39
Comment From Well-Beered Englishman
I have first pick in a fantasy volcano league. What volcano should I draft?
9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Olympus Mons
9:39
Comment From Chris
where is the article on rates when they stabilize?
9:40
Jeff Sullivan: As much as that article was helpful, it seems to have led people to believe that there’s a magic point at which certain statistics start to make sense. Things don’t work that way. There are better ways of conveying these ideas than pointing out when correlation factors or whatever hit 0.5
9:40
Jeff Sullivan: If it’s May 7, assume that the statistic you’re looking at hasn’t stabilized.
9:41
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Do you expect a major eruption from Mount Cleveland or small minor ones and a nuisance for air travel?
9:42
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
last 6 days: Hanley’s hammy goes pop, Doc’s shoulder goes poof, and Yu Darvish is still absurd
9:42
Jeff Sullivan: And Bryce Harper got ejected for no reason. Thank you for the assistance!
9:42
Comment From @dcholcomb
Weird that they didn’t have the internet wherever the wedding was.
9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t want to be on the internet. It’s important to get off of the internet.
9:42
Comment From Yes Wei Chen
Yankees and Red Sox exceeding expectations, Rays and Jays disappointing, and the Orioles quietly looking pretty good: After a month of evidence, how are you thinking the AL East plays out the rest of the way?
9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Red Sox win it, the Orioles and Yankees battle for second, the Rays hang around as a decent team that isn’t quite a good team, and the Blue Jays spend a lot of time looking in the mirror making faces. The Jays’ hole is just too deep for my likings
9:44
Comment From BostonPat
How much would Boston actually suffer from starting David Ross full time? He has some pop, is probably better than Salty defensively, and probably won’t share the same maddeningly low patience and high K%.
9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a matter of Boston. I think it’s a matter of whether Ross can handle it, and he’s a 36 year old who hasn’t surpassed 200 plate appearances since 2007
9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Ross seems like one of those guys who’s a quality backup who’s over-exposed and over-stretched as a regular
9:46
Comment From Mike
While you were gone the Tigers outscored the Astros 37-7
9:46
Jeff Sullivan: That actually did not escape my attention
9:46
Comment From Jaack
How many games does a combined Marlins/Astros squad win over the course of a season?
9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to go with a sad-looking 70
9:48
Comment From Yes Wei Chen
Ryan Zimmerman with another very slow start, think he’ll have a resurgence like he did in the second half of ’12?
9:48
Jeff Sullivan: If I were betting, I would bet against it. But I am not betting
9:49
Comment From Bound
Marte and Harper were about even in WAR last week–Marte is now blowing him away. Is this going to be this year’s Trout/Cabrera MVP decision?
9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t at all trust Marte to keep this up, so, no, I doubt it. Harper is amazing; Marte could be amazing. There’s probably not going to be another Trout/Cabrera for some time
9:50
Comment From CMR
What, if anything, can be done to heal Pujols?
9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like regular or extended time off, but the Angels are in an awkward position where they don’t have any depth or much time to sacrifice. If Pujols says he’s played through this before, then fine, you let him mostly handle himself. But if I’m the Angels then I’m extremely uncomfortable
9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Kind of like Pujols
9:52
Comment From Bruce
Is “changed his approach” the regular equivalent to “best shape of his life” or do some players really change their approach with positive results mid-season?
9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes it happens. The example that immediately comes to mind for me is Cameron Maybin — he made a swing adjustment early last July that paid immediate dividends. But usually a guy changing his approach and improving is simple regression, with the changed approach being a response to worse-than-usual results
9:54
Jeff Sullivan: There’s more substance to a guy making a change to the way he plays, but a changed approach isn’t automatically interesting
9:54
Comment From Too Many Joes
Mike Zunino’s hitting .195. Is he struggling or just preparing to fit in with the Mariners? Because if it’s the latter, he’s ready for a callup!
9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Unfinished products! Sometimes they slump!
9:54
Comment From Josh
The Mariners got Hisashi Iwakuma for two years with a 2015 option. He can’t keep this up but what a deal that was.
9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Iwakuma is well on the way toward being quietly fantastic. As long as he’s healthy, he’s got all the ingredients to make a FanGraphs reader love him
9:55
Comment From Zach
Oregon is prettier than Cape Cod? Them’s fighting words. If you include the Vineyard with the Cape, that changes things, right? Also: trade Jake Peavy for Chris Davis in a keeper, right?
9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Oregon is much prettier than Cape Cod. And more literally awesome. We have elevation changes!
9:56
Comment From Ted
Is there any sense to the argument that Matt Harvey lives off of high heat, and when his velo slows down he will be more hittable?
9:57
Jeff Sullivan: There could be, yes. If a guy’s trick is his fastball, then as his fastball loses oomph, it becomes more hittable and the guy gets worse. But thankfully for Harvey, his fastball isn’t his only trick
9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Fastball velocity decreases over the course of a pitcher’s career. So the later into a career a pitcher gets, the more important it is for him to have secondary stuff, it seems to me
9:58
Comment From Brett
How soon will it be before we have an article outlining how frequently people homer in their next PA after getting HBP? I’m thinking it would be an excuse for some awesome gifs of Mark Reynolds smashing a ball into the stratosphere accompanied by his bat flip/stare-down last night.
9:58
Jeff Sullivan: This would be a lot of fun! Difficult to code/research, but fun to play with and write up
9:59
Comment From Kyle
What do you think of Brett Anderson this year?
9:59
Comment From Kyle
Brett Anderson or Josh Johnson ROS
10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a big Anderson fan, and I don’t see many actual red flags in his numbers. I think, the rest of the way, Anderson is effective more often than not, and by the end his start will be mostly forgotten
10:00
Comment From hahhahha
Who is the bigger disappointment, the Jays or the Angels?
10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, the media might say the Jays, but I think the Angels. The Angels were supposed to be better than the Jays, but they’re less of a story after having disappointed in 2012, too
10:01
Comment From Yuniform
How do you feel about Rick Ankiel? How should I feel about the DFA?
10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t and you shouldn’t
10:01
Comment From zack
Do you think the Angels would have been better off keeping Earvin Santana?
10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so
10:01
Comment From Guest
What’s the best ballpark you’ve been in?
10:02
Jeff Sullivan: in love with AT&T, but I haven’t been to all that many ballparks around the country
10:02
Comment From Dave Valle
How cool are all of these old scouting reports that are coming out lately
10:02
Jeff Sullivan: 80
10:02
Comment From Ben
Have there been any studies done on how pitchers perform after having to run the bases?
10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Not to my knowledge, but my assumption would be that any effect would be mostly inconsequential/negligible. Running the bases isn’t that exhausting, and in between innings there’s a break
10:03
Comment From N
Do you think it’s possible JackZ & Co. are good enough at drafting to make up for their other deficiencies?
10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, that is possible
10:03
Comment From Nate
Who is the best 5th starter in baseball?
10:03
Jeff Sullivan: the answer from a month ago was Mike Leake, so off the top of my head now the answer is Mike Leake?
10:03
Comment From Nate
Is Ichiro the greatest Mariner of all time?
10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Nope. Depending on your criteria, it’s Edgar or Griffey
10:04
Comment From John Hirschbeck
Thoughts on my sweet ejection of Bryce Harper?
10:04
Jeff Sullivan: f*** you
10:04
Comment From Dave Valle
While on the Cape, did you miss the very interesting game 3 of Habs/Sens??
10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Made time to watch! MontreLOL
10:04
Comment From Mike
Do the Indians or Royals have a realistic shot at winning the AL Central?
10:05
Jeff Sullivan: They sure do! But it’s not a very good realistic shot. The Tigers are quite strong, still.
10:05
Comment From zack
Does a good start change the playoff odds? I mean, are teams like the Braves and the Cardinals that were considered slightly behind another team in the division now the slight favorites?
10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Different starts definitely change the playoff odds, because those are games that happened. They’re in the books. If a team’s projected to tie for the division, and after April they’re four games ahead, then you can see how the picture has been altered. The Jays and Angels and Dodgers are in real trouble. For three examples.
10:06
Comment From Guest
what statistic to you is most important for a leadoff hitter?
10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Cop-out answer: WAR. But the easy and accurate answer is OBP, and then you look at other statistics too
10:07
Comment From Guest
Do you follow the college WS?
10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Never have once
10:07
Comment From Wobatus
Kelvin Herrera has given up a 37.5% hr/fb rate. Talk Royals fans off the ledge. Only about 10 qualifying relievers since 2002 have been over 20%. Todd Coffey the worst in that time period with a 26.1% in 2007.
10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I believe I am going to be writing about this later today, in fact! Stay tuned
10:07
Comment From Guest
Favorite pro athlete? Karlsson?
10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Daniel Alfredsson, then Felix Hernandez
10:08
Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
ever tried to play “The Show” on PS3? It’s incredibly realistic: hitting the ball is impossible
10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I cannot stand baseball video games because I am bad at them and I am never sufficiently invested in getting better because they take so much time
10:08
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Mount Mayon took some people out yesterday.
10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Climbing volcanoes is always dangerous, even when they seem to be perfectly tranquil.
10:08
Comment From Kate
Yu Darvish. Thoughts?
10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Mind-blowing
10:09
Comment From Pedantic A**hole
B. Ryan’s wRC+ is 10, and yet I’d love to see him out there far more often than Andino.
10:10
Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t a matter of whether Ryan is better than Andino. He is. It’s a matter of whether Ryan is better off getting some time, or playing every day. For Ryan’s future, he might benefit from getting a breather because he’s always getting in his own head when he struggles. Gun to my head though, I don’t think it makes a meaningful difference, and Ryan’s future doesn’t matter to the Mariners anyway. It’s a weird and kind of stupid situation
10:10
Comment From Bound
Stanton still wearing Miami uniform on August 1?
10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Yes to this August 1, no to the next August 1
10:10
Comment From Ron
Eric Hosmer has been making me sad. Do you think he will ever turn into a top tier 1B?
10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, no
10:10
Comment From Guest
Jeff Keppinger has a wRC+ of -1. Ouch.
10:11
Jeff Sullivan: And he still hasn’t drawn a walk so his OBP is still less than his BA
10:11
Comment From Preston
Do you think Umpires will ever be disciplined for inserting themselves into games? That Bryce Harper ejection was pretty bad.
10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think even now, they hear about it, and I think we’re going to see gradual change over the course of the next several years because this shit is getting out of hand
10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not supposed to swear in these chats but I really can’t stand self-important baseball umpires
10:12
Jeff Sullivan: sorry Daves
10:12
Comment From zack
What do you think the Angels coaching staff is telling Josh Hamilton and why isn’t he listening?
10:13
Jeff Sullivan: He could be listening. Changes are difficult to implement. They say Carlos Peguero was always receptive to change, until he had an at bat with runners on, when he would forget everything and swing from the heels. Change is hard and hitting is hard and Hamilton is probably in his own head. The Angels coaches might be telling him to relax, but when you’re stressing out, being told to relax never helps anything
10:13
Jeff Sullivan: It’s actually quite annoying!
10:13
Comment From Kyle
is wrc+ adjusted based on position? or is it league wide
10:13
Jeff Sullivan: It is not position-adjusted
10:13
Comment From Chris
re: Yankees and old players. Also does Yankee stadium factor in?. Raul Ibanez looked fine last year because of Yankee Stadium, but is terrible again this year.
10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the stadium is a certain factor
10:13
Comment From Nate
Could you see the Mariners trading Jesus Montero back to the Yankees?
10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Yankees want him back, but I could easily see the Mariners trading Jesus Montero somewhere else
10:14
Comment From Ira
Do you thinks sports like the NHL and the NBA are immune to the type of specific analytics that are possible in baseball given the higher number of variables and player interaction? Or is technology just a step behind at this point?
10:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s never going to be as “easy” in the other sports as it is in baseball, but what we’re learning about baseball is that the game is always incredibly complicated, and the other sports allow for plenty of fascinating video analysis. I think it’s always going to be easier to have WAR in MLB than in the others, but in the others we’re getting a greater understanding of how plays happen, and how players make contributions to them.
10:15
Comment From Justin
Carlos Gomez leading the league in WAR. MVP odds?
10:15
Jeff Sullivan: almost nil
10:15
Comment From Andy
GUYS! JAMES LONEY ISN’T TERRIBLE. EXPLAIN THIS MADNESS!?
10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when Casey Kotchman wasn’t terrible?
10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Loney has one home run and a BABIP north of .400
10:16
Comment From JT
Is Strasburg just showing some rust or is there something we should be worried about
10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s fine
10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Last July, Strasburg allowed a .362 wOBA. Last August, .248
10:18
Comment From Casey
Any news on Erasmo Ramirez?
10:18
Jeff Sullivan: No news at all, and I’m just going to go ahead and assume he’s ticketed for Tommy John. Not being sarcastic; that’s typically the course of these things.
10:19
Comment From Mark
Do you feel not being able to swear is an encroachment on your personal freedoms?
10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I slip things in from time to time and no one’s complained for a while
10:19
Comment From RetireHurdle
Garrett Cole wins 5 ML games this year… yes or no?
10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Sure!
10:19
Comment From Phil
Are the staff meetings at FanGraphs pretty fun? I’ve had two meetings in two days and they’re not fun because they don’t talk about baseball
10:20
Jeff Sullivan: They’re usually a lot of fun but they go too long and we seldom get very much accomplished given the length of the call. We might have five minutes of important stuff to talk about, but we end up talking for an hour and then the day has slipped out of our hands
10:20
Comment From Andrew
Does Michael Saunders make 20/20 this year?
10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I definitely think so
10:21
Comment From max
FWIW, Mark Cuban and Daryl Morey have stated they believe statistical analysis in basketball is ahead of baseball. The best stuff just isn’t available to the public.
10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Certainly possible and I’d have no idea! I don’t follow basketball at all so I can’t speak to much there aside from my own decade-old observations and memories
10:21
Comment From Well-Beered Englishman
Wait how is Keppinger’s OBP lower than his AVG?
10:21
Jeff Sullivan: sacrifice flies
10:21
Comment From Guest
What are the rules given to you for this chat?
10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Start around 9am Pacific and chat for an hour without swearing much or being racist
10:22
Comment From Nate
Who will have a higher career WAR, Pineda or Montero?
10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Pineda, by a lot
10:22
Comment From RoboUmp
Best ran organization in baseball?
10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Still Tampa Bay to me
10:22
Comment From Harjit
Jeff, I just drove from Oakland through Chico to Portland and Seattle (caught a Mariners/Angels game on a sunny Sunday) and back. How close did I get to accidentally seeing you?
10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I was in Massachusetts so you didn’t come close at all
10:23
Comment From Kyle
where are more multiple pitch gifs? I was promised more! the yu darvish one was really awesome
10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t a post just go up this past weekend that had some?
10:23
Comment From Guest
What’s your favorite kind of cake
10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Delicious
10:23
Comment From Tim
Talk about how good the Cardinals’ rotation is, please.
10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals rotation FIP: 2.85
2nd-best NL rotation FIP: 3.50
10:25
Jeff Sullivan: The dingers will come, and the runs will come in greater amounts, but the Cardinals are certainly weathering any predicted storm
10:25
Comment From RetireHurdle
Do you see Liriano pitching well in NL Central?
10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not really
10:25
Comment From RetireHurdle
Any chance Fangraphs looks at a WinsAboveReplacementManager? Wins Above Clint Hurdle?
10:25
Jeff Sullivan: People have tried and it’s basically impossible to do and to do well
10:26
Comment From David
Patrick Corbin takes issue with your laudation of Mike Leake
10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Patrick Corbin is oversensitive
10:26
Comment From Johndango
This is just for you: Lookout Landing was always on my must read list. These days it seems drab and boring. Your writing made lookout landing and I just thought you should know :) PS – When Is USSM going to update their dated website to allow better commenting and embedded gifs?
10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you and I don’t know and hopefully somewhat soon! It’s been discussed but USSM, technology-wise, is a hell of a step back from the SBN CMS
10:27
Comment From Jon
Who do you prefer more as a hitter going forward – Mike Moustakas or Dustin Ackley?
10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think Ackley by a very small amount
10:28
Comment From zack
How awesome is a healthy Troy Tulowitzki?
10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Extraordinarily, relative to the other shortstops
10:28
Comment From Kyle
Taijuan Walker in the ML by the end of… July? Earlier?
10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Later
10:28
Comment From Jaack
Dave Cameron said staff meetings are mostly people making fun of Eno. True, or not.
10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Eno burps a lot and it’s disgusting
10:28
Comment From gareth
You think Ricky weeks will improve?
10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Yes
10:29
Comment From Dave Valle
Predictions for tonight’s Game 4?
10:29
Jeff Sullivan: 3-1 Ottawa
10:29
Comment From BX
How do you cope with your team making terrible roster decisions? Mine is getting bit in the neck by one right now.
10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I accept that there are things I can’t control and I don’t invest myself all that much in them, for that reason.
10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Also, I blog.
10:30
Comment From Gregory
What is something Ross Island, OR has over Ross Island, Antarctica?
10:30
Jeff Sullivan: A cement factory
10:30
Comment From gareth
You like Victorino or Morse for the rest of the season?
10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Victorino
10:30
Comment From wubwub
More likely to rebound… Kazmir or Ubaldo?
10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Oh sweet baby Jesus. Ubaldo? I don’t even
10:31
Comment From Camus
Mr. Almost-Life-Expert, any good life advice for a soul-searching college student
10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Meet people, be friendly to them, and expose yourself to opportunities you haven’t in the past. You don’t get out of a rut by remaining in the routine
10:32
Comment From Bill
Mike Leake > Shelby Miller for #5 starter? Really?
10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I did not put enough thought into that but in my defense I don’t think much about rotation slot assignments because they’re effectively meaningless
10:32
Comment From Harrison
david price going to be dominant this year?
10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes
10:32
Comment From Bryan
Can you think of a pitcher that returned from shoulder surgery and was effective? I was suprised by your endorsement of Pineda.
10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Carpenter?
10:33
Jeff Sullivan: And it wasn’t so much an endorsement of Pineda as an anti-endorsement of Montero. Montero sucks
10:33
Comment From Kyle
what do you think a peak manny machado year is goign to look like?
10:33
Jeff Sullivan: A Hall of Famer
10:34
Comment From Will
Does Smyly get a starting job soon?
10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’ll be too long
10:34
Comment From Larry
WHAAAAT? How did you get to be a Sens fan? (and a fan of illegal concussive hits)
10:34
Jeff Sullivan: The short of it: I started liking sports in 1992 and needed a hockey team. I was very young. I looked at the bottom of the NHL standings and saw Ottawa and I felt bad for them and decided they needed my support. It’s stuck ever since
10:34
Comment From Guest
Shelby Miller or Jose Fernandez?
10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Miller
10:35
Comment From Will
Honest question, why are you doing this chat if you aren’t a fantasy baseball expert?
10:35
Jeff Sullivan: That question is above my pay grade
10:35
Comment From Josh
Hi Jeff, have you ever caught a home run ball? Do true baseball fans keep the ball or throw it back? Thanks
10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Never once gotten a home run or a foul ball :(
10:35
Jeff Sullivan: True baseball fans don’t all do the same thing because there are different ways of being a true baseball fan
10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I would keep the ball, probably
10:35
Comment From gareth
Do Eric Wedge’s post game interviews bore you to tiers?
10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I never pay attention to postgame interviews
10:36
Comment From gareth
Sabathia in Decline?
10:36
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not on the rise
10:36
Comment From gareth
Adam Dunn, Done?
10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Not yet. I haven’t looked at the numbers in the last few days but I think that Dunn is starting to abandon his over-aggressive approach which could allow him to be more like Adam Dunn again
10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I need to go away you guys, I have work to do and a meeting to attend.
10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you very much for reading and participating, I apologize for the questions I didn’t get to, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday, by which point I’ll be caught up on baseball again! Thanks one more time and have wonderful days and weeks


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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Gareth
Guest
Gareth
3 years 2 months ago

Pick 2 out of these guys, Reddick, Rios, Swisher

El Vigilante
Guest
El Vigilante
3 years 2 months ago

Swisher, Rios. Now what? Is this a magic trick?

Owen
Guest
Owen
3 years 2 months ago

Whoa! Reddick just disappeared! No one can find him! Now pick one out of Swisher and Rios. Choose wisely.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 2 months ago

Gah…I feel like I’m holding a life in my hands…I choo-choo-choose…RIOS!

Wobatus
Guest
Wobatus
3 years 2 months ago

Where’s the article on Kelvin Herrera you bog-hoppin’, lace-curtain irish mother-f*****? (insert punctuation smiley face here).

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