Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/18/13

8:57
Jeff Sullivan: We might start this thing on time!

8:59
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Doubt it.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: One minute early!

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hi guys!

9:00
Comment From lowercase jeff
are you a kluber believer?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: As a good pitcher? Yeah, I’m there. As an ace pitcher? I’ll stay cautious, and maybe he’s pulling this year’s Kris Medlen, sort of.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Not a lot to be skeptical of, though. He’s got it all working.

9:02
Comment From Gabe
Happy Zack Wheeler Day!

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: This is an important time of year, when baseball gets a flood of interesting prospects right when you start to realize how damn long the regular season is

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: “Wait there are HOW many more –ooh, Wil Myers!”

9:03
Comment From lowercase jeff
does rendon have a vice grip on a starting job in 2014 now?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Strong grip but Danny Espinosa won’t be discarded that easily or thoughtlessly. A healthy Espinosa is still a good player

9:04
Comment From Bret
Hey Jeff! Quick question: Um, Adam Lind, WTF?!?!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Swing rates:

2011: 50%
2012: 44%
2013: 39%

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Might be something actually going on. Obviously he’s not this good, though. Just cherish not hating a guy you hate

9:05
Comment From Cole
Nothing but fantasy baseball questions coming your way this morning, get pumped.

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I am the one in control

9:05
Comment From Daniel
If Stephen Drew Maintains his current level of production what type of prospect return could the Red Sox see in a trade? Would they be better off waiting till the off-season and giving him a qualifying offer to collect a first round pick?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Stephen Drew?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: The Stephen Drew with the sub-.300 wOBA?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not worthless as a shortstop but you’re going to want to switch to a different fantasy today.

9:07
Comment From Ben
Is it ever really a good idea to intentionally walk a batter other than when it brings up a massive advantage–like a pitcher or the possibility for a double play? I mean, even the best batters fail 70 percent of the time, so I feel as though pitchers have a huge advantage anyway.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: As with bunting, there are certain appropriate situations, but they’re rare, and yeah, most generally it isn’t a good idea to put an extra guy on base if you don’t have to.

9:08
Comment From Jason
Can Nick Franklin, who was in the vetoed Justin Upton trade, outhit Upton the rest of the season?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: He sure can, but he probably won’t

9:08
Comment From lowercase jeff
would you rather see hanley play through the pain or should he just bite the bullet, go on the dl, and get robot legs installed?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Big fan of robot legs. Could additionally help raise awareness of others with robot legs

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But, would baseball allow robot legs? Let’s take this to an extreme. Say there’s a guy with a prosthetic arm. It’s incredible technology and it allows him to throw the baseball super hard and super accurately. Would baseball allow that? How far can technology go?

9:09
Comment From TB
Lots of talk about Jesse Crain, what’s the big whop?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say “lots”

9:09
Comment From Jeremy
How has Zunino performed behind the dish?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Just fine. The defense isn’t the concern

9:09
Comment From Jason
Would you rather chat at 9am or have West Coast games start at 10pm?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Chat at 9am. I did the whole 10pm thing for four years from college. I don’t know how I blogged about those seasons. I do know why I didn’t really get the true college experience. Thanks, Mariners.

9:11
Comment From pigman
Porcello is on quite a run, and apparently a curve is the reason, and no slider. If so, how much better than last year do you think he will be?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Wrote about this late last month www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-latest-tease/

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Looking like a very good starter

9:11
Comment From bird
good morning! rank these careers from best to worst: teheran/wheeler/bauer/wacha/gausman

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve all just gotten started

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Look, I will put these names in an order for you. That’s what you want. But is it what you want, really? Do you really think I’m capable of predicting five different futures based on almost zero long-term information?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler/Gausman/Teheran/Wacha/Bauer. There you are.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: That’s my best guess. It’s a guess.

9:13
Comment From Tom
Any predictions on the closest the Royals get to the Tigers in the standings ROS?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: What are they, five back now?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say about five back.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals are doing an admirable job these days. They’re not the Tigers, and they’re not close.

9:14
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is Miguel Montero going to turn it around?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: .792 OPS since May 26. A lot of that is BABIP, but the situation isn’t hopeless. Still got a promising track record

9:14
Comment From C
Wild prediction on Wheeler’s start tonight?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give him the ol’ Cole prediction. 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 K. My Cole prediction was way off.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: It would be somewhat interesting to look at the collective history of top pitching prospect debuts

9:15
Comment From Brent
The shift is so yesteryear. Is there a rule prohibiting a team from pulling the catcher to get another IF/OF in place? May have to give the umpire a glove or switch to automated balls/strikes, but minor details.

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: So I guess I can’t do a quick scan of the rule book but I am almost certain having a catcher is mandatory.

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry, Twins.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact, about shifting:

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: 2010: .297 BABIP
2011: .295
2012: .297
2013: .296

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: How much is it helping? I’m honestly curious

9:18
Comment From bird
Krist Medlen is still a good pitcher

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: He sure is

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: He sure isn’t what he was last season

9:19
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Better debut today: Wheeler or Myers? Who would you rather have long-term?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler, Myers, just out of natural pitcher cynicism. Or skepticism. Whichever

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: It is interesting that Myers’ Triple-A contact rate is down from 79% last year to 70% this year

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: It’s gotten better by month in 2013, though, so, who knows. The Jay Bruce comparisons sustain

9:20
Comment From Brandon
So..Arenado plays a pretty good 3B. His highlights are amazing.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:20
Comment From Jason
If Eric Wedge is fired does Raul Ibanez step in as player-manager?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I think they go managerless

9:20
Comment From Phil
How about those Padres huh?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Decent team, winnable division

9:21
Comment From zack
I enjoyed watching Felix pitch this weekend, but can you blame me for changing the channel when the Mariners “hit”?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Were you in control of the remote? If so, yes, of course, I can blame you, because you were responsible.

9:22
Comment From AJT
Why is Homer Bailey under-performing his peripherals?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: For no reason to worry much about

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: .253 wOBA with the bases empty, .339 with men on base. He’ll be okay

9:23
Comment From Eddie
ZIPS projects Zack Greinke to a 3.12 FIP RoS. Is that entirely based on his past performance? Or is there something in his current performance that makes ZIPS bullish on him?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like it’s not putting much stock in Greinke’s nine starts so far in 2013. That’s probably too optimistic a projection

9:25
Comment From Dionysus
Will Middlebrooks: is he broken? Any reason for optimism that he can turn it around?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Every week there’s a new Middlebrooks question and every week he’s still mired in a slump. At this point he might need to go find some self-confidence in Triple-A. Last season is reason for future optimism, but right now he’s hurting more than helping

9:27
Comment From MSpitz
More like Happy Wil Myers Day!!!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: It’s always exciting before you start taking the young players for granted, which you will, soon

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: We’re all monsters

9:27
Comment From zack
Should the Phillies stop playing Delmon Young in the outfield on a daily basis?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: um yes he’s terrible

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t even stathead over-the-top bias. He’s just terrible.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Projected rest-of-season: 0.0 WAR

9:28
Comment From Brent
Your JPA comp for Zunino was a joke, right? That’s just mean.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Realistic offensive outcome, although Zunino should have better defense

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe not so much this year’s Arencibia. 2011′s Arencibia

9:29
Comment From zack
How concerned are you about wil Meyers strikeout rate?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Somewhat. It’s the flaw but I want to see it in action

9:29
Comment From taylor
Would you try to deal Myers with all the hype? Is he really better than say an Aoki in a H2H pts league (no neg. for CS)?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Uh so I can’t speak to the fantasy part but I would probably explore trading Myers while his name value is through the roof

9:30
Comment From Kate
What do you think of the plan to make Jurickson Profar “a functional LF?”

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I think versatility is greatly underrated in today’s game, and the A’s are supporting evidence. Profar won’t forget how to play shortstop, and this’ll open up some options. I think I actually like it

9:30
Comment From Guest
has dan haren become worthless?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: no

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t count on those dingers keeping up, even if it feels like they will

9:31
Comment From Bkgeneral
Mike Leake is the _______ best starter on the reds?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: 4th? 5th?

9:32
Comment From Metsamorphosis
Do you think Wacha will be back in majors this year?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:32
Comment From SlidingBilly
What has gotten into Mike Leake?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing that wasn’t there before!

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: same xFIP- as always. He’s reduced some of the dingers, and given what we know about dingers…

9:33
Comment From Guest
Do we see Brian Wilson in the 9th inning regularly at all this season?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: not in major-league 9th innings

9:34
Comment From TB
re Kluber, Can you give him a relative ranking to determine whether or not to pick him up?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Pick him up

9:34
Comment From Nick O
Is Rob Neyer happy

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’d describe him as content

9:34
Comment From Bkgeneral
Can teams trade players on the DL? Could teams try to buy low on Espinosa?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Yes and yes but don’t count on that

9:35
Comment From jb
This is beaten to death: But seriously, why does Francouer still earn an MLB paycheck??

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Strong arm, looks good, personable

9:36
Comment From Zach
At what point does Nick Franklin skepticism (based on the fact that he’s a Mariner, is starting his career like Ackley) become Nick Franklin optimism?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: When he plays well for a year

9:36
Comment From benzedrine
Colby Rasmus’ contact % is getting closer to 70% now, and resulting in lots of dingers.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: wRC+ by month: 101, 117, 134. The strikeouts have gotten less Ankielian

9:38
Comment From Dave
Do you think the Cards made the right move with sending Wacha down and keeping Lyons up? Lyons did look pretty awful against the Marlins and has been subpar his last 3 starts

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I probably would’ve kept Wacha, but Lyons isn’t bad, and maybe this way they don’t have to worry about Wacha Super-2 concerns later on

9:39
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
MAX POWER SCHERZER!

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Yes he’s tremendous

9:39
Comment From Metsamorphosis
What do you make of Gee’s recent performance?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: He’s last year’s Dillon Gee, this year

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a hair better. He’s pretty good

9:40
Comment From zack
What are the odds of the Phillies dealing Cliff Lee?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Apparently low

9:40
Comment From zack
Where do you see Chris Davis’s true talent level at? He’s been awesome this year?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: wOBA around .380 or so. Anyone notice the career .343 BABIP? Dude’s strong.

9:41
Comment From Gabe
More disappointing: Jays or Angels?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Angels

9:41
Comment From BassmanUW
If Espinosa plays better when healthy, Nats still have to be concerned about Zimmerman’s long term ability to stay at 3B. Plus, neither Zimmerman nor Rendon have exactly shown themselves to be guys you can count on to be healthy for 150 games a year.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Versatility again. Maybe the Nats have five infielders for four positions. Maybe that’s not a problem. This is a workable situation

9:42
Comment From Ed
Does Ackley need to convert to the outfield to find his way back to Seattle? Franklin seems to be hitting pretty well, and he isn’t as versatile position wise.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley is already working on his outfield defense and he could be up pretty soon. Not a permanent conversion, necessarily, but this is about versatility once more. Gives the team options, and a way to play Ackley and Franklin at once

9:43
Comment From Brent
Obviously, pulling the catcher would only be done with nobody on base if I didn’t state that in my question.

9:43
Comment From benzedrine
Why is Munenori Kawasaki suddenly getting attention this year? Are the Blue Jays much more popular than the M’s?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: The Blue Jays are better, Kawasaki is playing better, and the Jays have a considerable internet presence

9:44
Comment From sea salt
was there a hype machine on profar? 2 hr’s and no steals so far. Franklin’s a better call-up.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Profar is outstanding

9:44
Comment From Ron
Do we really get a “flood of new prospects” or does it just seem that way becaus of hype? I don’t remember this being a prospect time until recently even though “Super Two” has been around since 1986 or so.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: A good number of top prospects are getting playing time now and that isn’t a coincidence. It isn’t a large-scale landscape change, but it’s a thing

9:45
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Do you believe the Tigers would trade anything of value for Paps? I can’t believe they’d do it.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: You can’t?

9:46
Comment From Michael
Defense at 3B this year is nuts: Machado, Arenado are unbelievable.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Zimmerman :(

9:46
Comment From Metsamorphosis
I understand JUpton is not as good as April and not as bad as recent but c’mon 1 HR is about a month??? Do I just wait it out or cut bait?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Without knowing the first thing about your league, no, you shouldn’t just cut Justin Upton from your team.

9:47
Comment From MSpitz
Kawasaki gets sent down when Reyes comes back…right?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe not? Bonifacio’s been crap.

9:48
Comment From Tom
Cards’ starters (other than Wainwright) showing signs of fatigue? Something to be worried about moving forward?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: June xFIP = May xFIP. They’re doing okay.

9:49
Comment From Jeremy
Brian Wilson speculation?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: None at all, and that’s how I like it

9:50
Comment From _David_
With the use of video and exploding knowledge of how to exploit every player’s tendencies, are players who are more willing/ able to make adjustments the new market inefficiency? I know this has always been valuable, but is it relatively more so now?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Players who make adjustments will be good. Players who don’t make adjustments will be worse. The market inefficiency might be versatility, or changeups. There are probably multiple inefficiencies.

9:52
Comment From zack
If the royals make a wild card spot will the Meyers trade end up being a win?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s how trades should be evaluated. And Jeff Francoeur has been worth negative WAR. And I can’t see the Royals taking a wild card.

9:52
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
What do you think about Mike Zunino ROS? What about Wheeler?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: decent, a little better than decent

9:52
Comment From lowercase jeff
padres are now 1 game out of first place. what can they do between now and the deadline to make sure they have an actual shot of contending? their pitching is atrocious. do you see them pursuing outside help (nolasco?) or internal help (erlin)?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Both of those seem like fine ideas. The most general point: rotation upgrade. That’s what they need most, and they don’t have to land an ace.

9:53
Comment From Bkgeneral
Are the Padres actually good? And if so, how?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: They’re a half-decent team on a hot streak, just like the Royals

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Just wrote about this yesterday

9:55
Comment From Michael
What pitching duel would you most like to see at this point of the season?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Darvish/Cingrani could be fun

9:55
Comment From Owen
I hadn’t checked the standings in a while. The Brewers!? Geez. How are things so wrong when they are a good team on paper getting a couple of randomly great performances?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Black holes

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying they’ve been crippled by Corey Hart’s absence, but they have a .503 OPS out of first base

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Rickie Weeks hasn’t done crap. Too many starters have underperformed

9:58
Comment From Steve
The Tigers have a platoon of Dirks and Tuiasasosospososo going in left field and both seem to be very average players. When do you think we see a Castellanos call up?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Within a month? Looking more and more like he’s ready although I can’t speak to his defensive ability

10:00
Comment From Sean T.
What’s the highest WPA play that you can think of?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, the two-out, walk-off grand slam when you’re down 3 runs

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: That’ll be something like +0.91

10:01
Comment From Doug
Jays win six in a row! Just three games back of .500! Just eight games out in the AL East! Five-and-a-half back of the wild card! Exclamation marks! Should Jays fans get any excited, or is this all still too dire?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Of course you can get excited because the season isn’t yet beyond saving but recognize that the odds are still long. Projected standings have Jays finishing at 81-81 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

10:03
Comment From Gerardo Parra
I’m actually a good hitter now, aren’t I?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Somewhere in the vicinity of average, yeah

10:04
Comment From _David_
For someone that tall, Mike Morse doesn’t seem to be able to reach for any throws at first base.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness he’s not a first baseman. He’s a DH

10:06
Comment From Hoppy
What are your thoughts on Alfredo Figaro in Milwaukee? He has the highest fastball velocity of any SP with at least 20 IP not named Strasburg or Harvey and some base skills this year. Think he can perform well?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Just now getting caught up on the story. Boring pitcher goes to Japan, pitches decently, comes back brand new. Might be able to pitch to lefties now. He’s of interest to me, although not of that *much*

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Vogelsongy career path

10:08
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
The latest drivel to come out of the Mets’ front office is that they’re soon ready to spend because of the emergence of a “talented young core”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t their core consist entirely of Harvey and Wright and now possibly Wheeler? The only offensive core guy is on the wrong side of 30. Without going outside the system, how many “core” guys could the Mets possible have?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Does D’Arnaud count? Yeah, the core isn’t there yet. But whatever they can do to try to keep spirits up. Fans don’t want to hear that they need to be patient

10:09
Comment From Chris
Do you think Nick Franklin will be better than Ackley because he wasnt rushed? And will Ackley be the solution at CF?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s why, and, no

10:11
Comment From BX
When is it smart to pinch hit for a better hitter with a (significantly) worse hitter because of hitter platoon splits against a LH reliever?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Almost never, especially given the pinch-hitter penalty.

10:12
Comment From _David_
Regarding FIP, should homeruns be considered more dangerous to higher walk and/or groundball pitchers?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: HR might be more dangerous to GB pitchers, but then FB pitchers will allow more doubles and triples. FIP works well because of its simplicity and while you can make it more complicated, you don’t need to, because it won’t make that much of a difference

10:13
Comment From Zach
OMG WIL MYERS! You excited?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s not my prospect

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I seldom really get “excited” over baseball. I just follow it contentedly. I get excited over hockey and the outdoors

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: and squirrels eating in trees

10:14
Comment From Kevin
Jimmy Rollins is he done as an above-average SS?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but close

10:15
Comment From Dave
The Pirates can’t do the same thing for a 3rd year in a row, right? There can’t possibly be another 2nd half collapse in store…right?!

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: A big part of me hopes not, and a big part of me hopes so

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I like to have some consistency, some dependability in my sports. The Pirates are making things all weird

10:16
Comment From lowercase jeff
which team close to contention now do you see becoming a seller as the trade deadline approaches?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Do the Phillies count?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not an easy question. There’s not much reason for teams close to the race to sell

10:17
Comment From danielb
Do you think Mujica can keep this up or will Rosenthal take over at some point?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Mujica’s got it this year

10:17
Comment From C
How long do you keep Ackley in the minors?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Until he’s punishing outside pitches consistently and using left field. No specific time frame for that

10:17
Comment From pigman
Would you comment on the George Brett change in KC. There does seem to be an improvement in the hitting since he got there. Is that really causal?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: When was he named coach, May 30?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Royals through May 29: .689 OPS
Royals since May 30: .661 OPS

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: If you want to believe any narrative, then George Brett has made the Royals worse.

10:19
Comment From Michael
True or False: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: False, stupid

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Not calling you stupid! Calling the theory stupid.

10:20
Comment From The Humber Games
It seems like many writers assume that a high number of ‘just enough’ home runs means a player is getting lucky and that the home runs will stop (example: Segura). Isn’t there a chance that hitting ‘just enough’ home runs (or line drive home runs) is actually a skill based upon your batted ball profile?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head I suspect it’s both. Some guys might be more prone to just-enough home runs, but high totals are going to have a lot to do with luck as well.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Leader in just-enoughs in both 2011 and 2012: Miguel Cabrera

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think the real key is showing power max. If a guy has yet to hit a homer 400 feet, that tells you something about his power upside. Segura’s topped out at 430. He’s not weak

10:23
Comment From zack
Bigger Raw power: Stanton or Mark McGwire?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably McGwire but man I’d like to see him in the Hit Tracker era

10:23
Comment From Alex
Why don’t teams that haven’t peed on their fanbase (Marlins) but struggle (Mets, Royals, Mariners, etc.) offer dirt cheap/free tickets just to fill the seats? They would still make a ton more $ selling concessions to turn more of a profit then regular priced tickets. Plus it could generate more fans. What am I missing?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Teams have a lot of people in charge of maximizing revenue, because teams are businesses. They’ve thought about everything and what you see is probably more or less the optimized approach. Maybe teams aren’t aggressive enough in offering dirt-cheap tickets but they know how to get the most money out of an audience

10:25
Comment From Phil
How is it living in Portland? I’ve always been curious about it and heard nothing but things about that place

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: It is fantastic, absolutely fantastic

10:26
Comment From Guest
will the mariners try and resign both morales and morse?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll probably make some effort at Morales. I think they might well be prevented from making an effort at Morse, depending on what happens with the front office

10:26
Comment From atoms
What do I have to do to get a question answered in this chat? Some folks seem to be able to get 3 or 4 of theirs in, grammatical errors and all. This feels futile.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t this awkward for you now

10:26
Comment From Tim
Is there any pitcher in baseball for whom you would trade Matt Harvey, taking into account cost?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I…hmm.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, no.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Miller, maybe Fernandez

10:29
Comment From The Humber Games
J. Castro in Houston – think we’re seeing a legit breakout or just a hot streak?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good player!

10:29
Comment From byron from austin
how many more of erasmo’s starts are the m’s going to waste, before they put him in the big-league rotation? over/under 3 more starts.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I’d expect him within a couple weeks, if his elbow doesn’t give out

10:29
Comment From Owen
Field F/X will be __% as big a deal for analysis as Pitch F/X.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: 60-70%? We already have fielding approximations and pitching/hitting is more important

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the simplistic answer

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: These are all simplistic answers :(

10:30
Comment From Dombro
Jeff: is waiting for .900 OPS Alex Avila to return like “Waiting for Godot”?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah you should give that up

10:31
Comment From Brian
Any opinions on Victorino’s season so far?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Not of real interest. He’s an average player

10:32
Comment From Bob Bunsen
Why does the FanGraphs Mariners Depth Chart project Endy Chavez to get only 39 PA the remainder of the season? Seems like he’s line for much more than that, unfortunately…

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Because I refuse to acknowledge the horrible horrible truth

10:32
Comment From Bkgeneral
Is the A’s stadium situation a bigger smite on MLB than PED’s?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, in that more people care about it

10:32
Comment From JO
How good can Erasmo Ramirez be?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good! #2 starter good!

10:33
Comment From Maxamuz
Who finishes better according to your gut…Derek Holland or Mike Leake?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Holland

10:33
Comment From TJ
Think Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler has a better 2013?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler

10:34
Comment From Sean T.
Do you think the soon comebacks of Eaton and Hill will give the Diamondbacks a significant boost to their offense (compare to Pollock and Bloomquist/Pennington at their respective positions)?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, that would be a big help for them

10:35
Comment From Maxamuz
Do you agree that Detroit or a team with bullpen needs should target Jesse Crain over Papelbon?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, if I’m allowed to presume the costs.

10:35
Comment From Kate
HOCKEY. How ’bout all that OT?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: unparalleled

10:35
Comment From Sadwick
Who do you have taking the Stanley Cup? My money is on Boston, should be a good series though.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Boston!

10:36
Comment From Wobatus
I’m kinda having fun watching the Astros throwing stuff against the wall to see if it sticks: Fernando Martinez, no, wait, Jimmy Paredes…how about Trevor Crowe? Brandon Barnes? Robbie Grossman? J.D. Martinez? Justin Maxwell? What else can you do. It’d be nice to catch lightning in a bottle.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros are in the middle of a true no-downside, experimental season. They have a year to do whatever they want. It’s probably exciting for them, too.

10:37
Comment From Joe Blanton
I’m on a one man mission to discredit DIPs theory.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: And look at that, it’s your old friend Aaron Harang!

10:38
Comment From Guest
Can you explain Derek Holland’s recent struggles?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I strongly suspect it’s nothing to worry about, but his velocit’ys been a little down

10:38
Comment From Fantasy Fandom
Better question – how much of a dip does Ackley’s long term value take in LF vs 2B?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: None, if he’s a good outfield defender.

10:39
Comment From Chris_FB
Which division seems to be locked up the earliest, and which one seems like it will go right down to the final series of the season? I’d think NL East (i.e. Braves starting to run away with it) and AL East. NL West only appears close, I can’t believe all 4 of the 4 of 5 teams within a couple games of each other can keep that up.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: There are no doubts in my mind about the AL Central, and, yeah, I think the AL East is a tight one, although the NL West has the potential to be a real cluster

10:40
Comment From Bob Benson
Where can I find average stats by position — e.g., an average shortstop is hitting AVG/OBP/SLG?

10:40
Comment From Wobatus
Fluoride in Portland, pro or con, or stay out of politics on FG board. Frankly, I’m reminded of General Jack Ripper.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Pro and I can’t stand anti-science

10:41
Comment From Ray
Would you put Machado in with Trout and Harper in terms of overall talent?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Less and less reason not to

10:42
Comment From Anthony
Should the Pirates consider an extension for Alvarez?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: They can consider it, but he isn’t very good and he isn’t getting better

10:42
Comment From nelson
who wins in a fight: cameron or cistulli?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Cameron, if Cistulli doesn’t run away first

10:43
Comment From JO
Jeff, I know you’re a Mariners fan. Tell me about Erasmo Ramirez

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Good pitcher, underrated because of his command/changeup, I’m worried about his elbow

10:43
Comment From JO
Kennedy or Ogando ROS?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Kennedy. Ogando has a shoulder thing going on.

10:44
Comment From Guest
What current major leaguer is least deserving of his employment?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Yuni Betancourt

10:44
Comment From Guest
Jason Marquis? The exception to the rule? He’s hittable; walks almost everyone; possibly may never k another hitter; has an average, or less, defense behind him and yet his record is very good. Is he a right handed Barry Zito zen character? Is he Gaylord Perry is disguise? Is he doing this to ruin sabermetrics?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Last year, his FIP was bad and his ERA was bad and his record was bad

10:45
Comment From Bryan
Response to the ticket price question. Imagine you’re a season ticket holder, and you know the guy sitting next to you paid 75% less for his ticket because the team was doing poorly. You would have to think that customer would be less like to buy season tickets next year if he thought that the value of his investment would drop just because the team was doing poorly.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: And that

10:45
Comment From Maxamuz
Do you know where I could get Wil Myers splits?

10:46
Comment From senorpogo
Will Ryan Raburn be playing every day somewhere next year?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Not out of the gate

10:46
Comment From JO
So based on Chris Davis’ BABIP for his career, can he be relatively close to this good throughout his prime?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Not this good. This is obscenely good. But he shouldn’t experience complete BABIP regression to a familiar .300

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It has been 107 minutes! I need to get going!

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming along, and I’m sorry for the stuff I didn’t have a chance to get to. The queue, as always, is overwhelmingly active. We’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time, and have wonderful afternoons and evenings. Bye!




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

3 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/18/13”

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  1. Jeff says:

    Thoughts on Teheran the rest of the way? k/9 rising, and some crazy good bb/9 ratios. does he keep it up?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Shlum says:

    Steps for answering question:

    1. Seek out some ROS projections
    2. Look at the lineups he has pitched against
    3. Think about it kinda hard
    4. Come to a conclusion and shut your piehole

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jason says:

    Season ticket holders are the reason bad teams don’t give away thousands of free tickets to every game.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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