Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/25/13

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, late as usual, this time for traveling reasons. We’ll get started as soon as I put in my contacts!

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: They are in another room!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: All right, no better time than the present for sports.

9:07
Comment From BILL
do you see Bruce Rondon getting chance to close in Detroit this year?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Not for very long

9:07
Comment From AJT
A bit late, so right on time!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: You figured it out!

9:07
Comment From Bill Brasky
Better ROS Kluber or Cashner?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Kluber

9:08
Comment From mix
Thanks for hosting another chat. I have Jon Lester stashed on my bench right now, but it feels like his early season success is evaporating before my eyes. Where do you see him ROS? Because I’ll need to drop somebody because of the DL list (one of Lester, Gerrit Cole, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson or Brandon Beachy.) Thanks.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: You could afford to drop Lester and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. He’s not what he was, and he won’t be

9:10
Comment From Conor
What should the Braves do with McCann/Gattis when both are healthy? Does one get moved?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, stop playing Gerald Laird, but no, the Braves aren’t going to deal a productive player when they’re gunning for the playoffs. They’ll just consider this a sort of Gattis break-in period before he plays regularly in 2014 and beyond

9:12
Comment From Nick
Who do the Jays send down tomorrow to put Jose Reyes back on the 40 man?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, the Blue Jays have an eight-man bullpen. So the answer should be a mediocre reliever, but there exists the possibility that it’s Kawasaki, just because of his option situation. I’d bet on reliever, because Kawasaki has done too much

9:13
Comment From Harjit
Jeff, hope this finds you well. thanks for doing these chats. My question is about the Giants. Should they re-load? Make a few unpopular trades (perhaps Pence, relievers) keep the core intact and punt the rest of the season to try to get a few guys back in the farm system? Is that crazy?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: That division is entirely too winnable

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: They have a better chance of making the playoffs this year than they do of getting impact talent back in the trades they might make

9:14
Comment From Izzy
Is David Wright the favorite to lead the National League in WAR this year? If not, where would he rank and who do you prefer?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s Wright, but only because Tulowitzki is out for a number of weeks with his rib injury. At full health, I’d rather have Tulo

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Tulo is amazing, is the point

9:16
Comment From Tinman
Has Rendon played well enough to keep his spot when Espinosa is back?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’s my read, especially with Espinosa sucking in his rehab

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Rendon might sacrifice a few games here and there but he should be the primary option

9:18
Comment From AJT
What moves, if any, do you think the Pirates make at the ASB? Will they be able to sustain enough to pull off a wild card berth at least?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re going to see the Pirates swing a blockbuster, as they seem like a team that’s going to add role players if they add anything at all. But right now the Pirates have a six-game lead in the wild-card race, tied with the Reds. The closest teams are the Padres, the banged-up Rockies, and the banged-up Giants. The Pirates are in a hell of a position right now and it would be a complete surprise if they collapsed again

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: even if it wouldn’t be *that* surprising, since Pirates

9:20
Comment From Greg
Think the Giants would trade Kyle Crick if it lands them a front of the rotation starter like Garza?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Giants are going to trade another important pitching prospect for another rental, especially in a year with so many questions

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Giants need more starting pitcher depth in the system, not less

9:23
Comment From Nick
What is up with Brett Cecil this year?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Relieving isn’t easy, but it’s relatively easy

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Velocity up and no more changeups. It agrees with Cecil, as it agrees with many

9:24
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Thoughts on Kyle Gibson? How do you think he’ll turn out ROS?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think he could be the best starter on the team, and mostly just decent

9:25
Comment From Chris
Do you think the Mariners will and should sign Morales?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’ll get done, but I think they’re in an advantageous position if that’s something they want to do

9:25
Comment From Sam
Who should the Pirates target for RF, assuming they don’t want to sell the farm for Stanton?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: A guy like Schierholtz is a good idea, even if that entirely fails to so much as raise one of your eyebrows

9:27
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
How do you feel about Chris Tillman ROS? Career?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like pretty soon people are going to stop expecting that breakthrough, and they’ll accept him as the half-decent starter that he is

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: But boy, every few starts or so, he’ll mix in a gem that makes people wonder

9:28
Comment From mix
Brian McCann vs. Victor Martinez ROS? I’m not even sure if I want to keep V Mart as a back-up, but the best on waivers is Russel Martin and most teams in my league aren’t going to want to trade their catchers. Thanks.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: This is a less interesting question than I wanted it to be, but, McCann

9:29
Comment From Bobo
What do you project for Zunino ROS?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Powerful mediocrity

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Man, so many questions in the queue about ROS projections. We have ROS projections on the site and they’re smarter than I am.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Seriously, you can feel free to ask authors whatever you like, but the ZiPS and Steamer numbers are going to be at least just as good and they’re readily accessible for everybody.

9:30
Comment From AJT
How well can you see without your contacts? Wouldn’t you normally always have them in?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like to sleep in them and now this is a question I have answered in a public live baseball chat

9:30
Comment From Maxamuz
This may brighten up your day after misplacing your contacts in the other room.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Holy hell I didn’t know we could have attachments!

9:31
Comment From Bubba Gump
Is it time to start worrying about Verlander and his velo loss?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: 2012: 2.94 FIP, 3.31 xFIP
2013: 2.86 FIP, 3.29 xFIP

There might be something going on, but I’ll worry more when it’s more evident in the results that he’s generating

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting that his BABIP is so elevated after a career of suppression, but it’s still only June and he’s still pitching in front of the Tigers’ team defense

9:32
Comment From Kate
Why not just wear glasses?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I feel a lot more alert in contacts which you can obviously glean from the current pace of this chat

9:32
Comment From Shark Mapiro
How worried should the Indians be about Pestano’s velocity? Is he still hurt? Did the WBC ruin him?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: His velocity seems to be more or less fine?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a drop between 2012-2013, but there was a bigger drop between 2011-2012 and Pestano was aces

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Way too easy to pin this on the WBC. Probably a lot smarter to pin it on sample sizes and the vagaries of relieving

9:35
Comment From senorpogo
Jeff- I don’t exactly have the time to keep up on all the most recent developments and discoveries in baseball number crunching. Where does pitch framing currently stand? Is it still seen as a major influence on run prevention? Or has the sabermetric community backed off on those original numbers some what?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: It’s still popular — it’s just becoming more widely understood and more widely taken for granted. It does seem to be an occasionally major influence, even if that’s just for a handful of guys. There’s a certain air of skepticism regarding the extremes, and I think the next step is going to be figuring out the pitcher contribution to the catching numbers. Because it can’t all be up to the catcher

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I think it gets so much attention not because it’s a huge part of winning and losing, but because it’s so new a field. So people just want to go exploring while there aren’t any trails

9:37
Comment From Mike
Puig’s homer vs Bumgarner…

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen it yet, was traveling

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Now I feel bad for accepting that comment from the queue

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Now I feel like I have to watch the home run so brb

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: God, he even hits them by accident.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: The opposite-field power is really going to help him avoid the major, crippling regression one might expect from a guy so aggressive

9:39
Comment From zack
The Russell Martin signing: Most underrated move of the offseason?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Way up there, if not atop. Stupid Yankees! Unthinkably stupid Yankees!

9:40
Comment From Steve Z
Jeff Locke — #3?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Better as a #4 but the labels don’t really matter

9:40
Comment From Daniel
Does “ROS” stand for “Rest of Season?” Somehow I missed the memo.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah

9:41
Comment From AJT
What do you expect from Jay Bruce ROS?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: See this is what I was talking about. I think Bruce will finish with a wRC+ around 120 or so, like he’s been doing forever

9:42
Comment From sf
Your thoughts on the addition of the second wild card and it stagnating the trade market?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I like having so many teams considering themselves to be in contention

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: And while it can be fun to follow trades and trade rumors, they don’t actually make that much of a difference most of the time so whatever

9:43
Comment From gareth
Starlin castro. Josh Hamilton has got the press for stinking up the joint but castro has to be given his props for being a huge dissapointment also, right?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Used to be people worried that Castro wasn’t getting better. Now he’s gotten worse. This is a really dangerous career path that he’s on

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Eight-year contract!

9:45
Comment From Chicago Mark
Did you read the piece on dropping Justin Morneau? What happened. He said this was the first off season since the concussion he was able to work out physically. And yet….regression from 2012.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Players always have lots of reasons to believe they’ll bounce back from things. They don’t voice the reasons to believe they might not. That’s simplified, but it’s not like Morneau looked like a shoo-in, and now he’s a half-decent 32-year-old first baseman with an injury history.

9:47
Comment From Pat
Reasonable return for Cliff Lee at trade deadline?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re going to see it happen, but the return would be strongly related to the amount of salary picked up by the Phillies

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not unloading that contract *and* getting a treasure chest of young talent

9:48
Comment From zack
How many more big years does Yadier Molina need to get serious HOF consideration?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to want to be good/great into his mid-30s, but he’s going to get a lot of credit for probably being the best actual catcher of his generation

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: An MVP wouldn’t hurt

9:50
Comment From gareth
Do you see the indians adding a loshe, nolasco, gallardo or garza to make a push for a wild card slot?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: At this point I’d expect the Indians to be pretty quiet because I don’t think a big upgrade is out there that they’re going to want to pay for

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: They did their big restructuring over the winter

9:52
Comment From Kris
Will Middlebrooks going to get sent down? Should he be?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’d do it, but I don’t know what’s specifically the matter with him. So I can’t speak to how much he’d stand to gain from Triple-A. But he’s sure as hell not helping at all in the majors, soooo

9:53
Comment From Robert
Just as a fun guess, where do you think Trout ends up roughly at the end of his career in terms of WAR?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s see. He’s coming up on 22, right, and he’s already at 15 career WAR

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to say somewhere around 80 or so, but there’s obviously the potential there for him to blow that projection away

9:54
Comment From Conor
I traded Puig for Braun a week ago… Uh Oh?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Uh oh

9:55
Comment From David
Who do you feel better about for the second half…Beachey or Pineda?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Just on the nature of the injuries, Beachy, since that was elbow instead of shoulder, but Pineda seems to be ahead in his rehab so he could easily end up with the better 2013 numbers

9:55
Comment From Joe
Does Peavy get traded even if he only gets a start or two in before the deadline to prove that hes healthy?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: There’s so little out there, realistically, that yeah, I think he could get moved based on any assurance that he’s okay. Remember that he’s been traded before while he was hurt

9:56
Comment From Henry
Hey Jeff, do you see Jesse Crain being moved to a contender to close, and if so, which team?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s going to close, but I think he’s going t oend up in an important role

9:57
Comment From Joe
What’s Zoilo’s deal?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball’s fifth Zoilo. He’s not worth your interest, outside of that

9:57
Comment From gareth
Rendon.Espinosa. puig. Carl crawford. How do you see this working out? Do those teams follow han solos advice and let the roookies win?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Rendon mostly plays over Espinosa, Espinosa serves as depth, Dodgers move Andre Ethier to somebody stupid

9:58
Comment From _David_
Regarding Felix and his meltdown games this year and last, might lower velocity lower the floor on disaster potential when whatever else goes wrong?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: The velocity has actually been picking up

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: And though that might be a fine theory, Felix has had more than a few meltdown games over the course of his career

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: 34 career games with 10+ hits allowed, 9 since the start of last year, and the defense behind him this year sucks

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: That was research I didn’t expect to conduct this morning

10:02
Comment From Jeff
Justin Verlander. These are not ace-like numbers. What gives?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Most of them are ace-like numbers

10:02
Comment From Joe
Is Ackley starting LF for M’s when hes back?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: LF and CF

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Not starting at both, although maybe he should

10:02
Comment From James
Does a 2B platoon of DeRosa/Kawasaki have more value than mascot/veteran presents?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly what this means but the fact of the matter is that DeRosa and Kawasaki have done something while Bonifacio and Izturis have not

10:03
Comment From Suge Knight
Any chance Taillon gets the call this year?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not for anything meaningful

10:03
Comment From McE
Why are people willing to let prospects work on their defense in the majors but not their offense? I’m thinking of this in terms of Zunino vs. Miller, but it seems common. Guy is a polished defender but still needs to work on his pitch recognition? Leave him in AAA. Guy is a polished hitter but still needs to work on his defense? Call him up and see what he does.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Think that’s an oversimplification as there are cases where guys work on their hitting in the majors and work on their defense in the minors. But big-league fields are better, teams prioritize offense, and defense is “simpler” to pick up.

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: With Brad Miller in particular, it’s not a skills thing. They say it’s a brain thing, and so you need to see how he plays defense under more pressure-packed situations

10:07
Comment From gareth
iz michael BrAntley one of the most underrated players in mlb

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: If you allow for a very long list

10:07
Comment From bucs_lose_again
Do the four pitches involved in an IBB count towards pitch counts? If so, do you think they should?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: They should count less than most pick-off attempts

10:08
Comment From _David_
Do we know the point at which SP durability is no longer valuable, as in, if an average starter could go 300 innings, should he?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: That guy should. Average pitching is valuable, since average is better than replacement-level. But of course, within individual games, you shouldn’t just leave a guy in there forever if you have relievers ready because the relievers are going to be better later in the game.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: There’s also the matter to consider of durability being hard to predict. Guys with track records of being workhorses continue to be workhorses until they aren’t

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’m thinking Jon Garland. That guy never got hurt, until he did, and then he wasn’t durable anymore

10:10
Comment From Cliff
Does it make sense for the Jays to trade away their impending free agents (i.e. Johnson, Oliver, DeRosa, etc.) and replace them by trading for players of similar talent (albeit at a higher cost) who are under team control for beyond this season?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not as easy in reality as it is in theory. I don’t think, at this point, the Jays are going to seriously consider trading Josh Johnson, and if anything they might want to ride it out and see if they can re-sign him since 2014 could and should be competitive too

10:11
Comment From Rated Rookie
What are the Orioles doing with Gausman?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Using him

10:11
Comment From Daniel
Conventional Fangraphs Wisdom seems to suggest that Yasiel Puig may be able to pull off a “Good Josh Hamilton” performance. How would you compare that to early 2000s Vladimir Guerrero?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: That seems to be what Puig is shooting for, right?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Puig doesn’t quite have Guerrero’s contact skills, and you don’t want to get ahead of yourself and compare a guy to an all-time great after 82 plate appearances, but strikeout rates have changed and if anyone is going to go the Guerrero way at this point, it’s probably Yasiel

10:14
Comment From Anon21
Who can the Braves realistically obtain to upgrade at third base? Or is the answer “no one,” and they’ll just need to live with the Chris Johnson Experience?

10:14
Comment From Bob Uecker
Posible trade destinations for ARam?

10:15
Comment From gareth
Corey kluber.. biggest pitching suprise this year?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Scott Kazmir and Jeremy Bonderman are starting pitchers in the major leagues

10:15
Comment From AJT
What would you do if someone invented a completely functional holodeck?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Ask what that means

10:15
Comment From Bobo
How many healthy starts for Tacoma does Hultzen need before he’s promoted?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: 5-10, at least? He’s behind Erasmo

10:16
Comment From Tom
Looking down the road, do you think the contracts to Pujols and Hamilton will force the Angels to trade Trout rather than extend him? And if so, what do you think a trade for Trout would look like?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: No, Pujols/Hamilton aren’t going to have a big effect on Trout. Plenty of budget space left, especially since Hamilton’s contract is up after 2017, which is right when Trout starts hitting his would-be free-agent years

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: So when Trout, in theory, gets his most expensive, Hamilton will be gone

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t make sense to not try to sign your best players because of your expensive worst players

10:18
Comment From Izzy
Can someone change Myers’ player page to Wil Myers?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Not just someone. David Appelman!

10:18
Comment From Tom
Think the Pirates make a push for Stanton?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Not during the season

10:19
Comment From Goldie Wilson
Is Neil Walker going to turn his season around?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: 2011: 106 wRC+
2012: 111
2013: 113

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: So, no?

10:19
Comment From JO
I’m growing impatient with Erasmo. Something exciting about that guy. When will Harang/Bonderman start sucking again so we can ALL get our wish?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Should be within a matter of weeks. Bonderman, obviously, has ugly peripherals. If Harang sucks, he’ll get dropped. If he pitches well, he could get moved for a PTBNL to a fringe contender. Erasmo is coming as long as he stays healthy

10:20
Comment From Skore
Any chance Kickham sticks in the bigs this time?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Not a good one

10:21
Comment From Matt
In a dynasty league, would you give Jose Fernandez to get Taveras?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: This is actually an interesting question, out of context. Ordinarily the right thing to do is trade young pitching for young hitting, but Fernandez has demonstrated big-league success while Taveras has had some problems in Triple-A. Is this the point at which it’s smarter to hang onto the pitcher? If it’s not, it’s really really close. I’d actually keep Fernandez. I’m surprised at myself.

10:22
Comment From Blockhead
What do you do if your Jon Daniels at the deadline? Its quite amazing they still lead the AL West despite having the most starts by rookie pitchers.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I pat myself on the back and wait for other pitchers to get healthy

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: They could make a move for a second-tier outfielder due to the underperformance and possible Cruz suspension

10:23
Comment From Guest
Do you see the Mariners trading Morales, Iwakuma, Ryan, Morse or Ibanez

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: No, no, yes, maybe, no

10:25
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Who do you think is the Indians’ rep for the All Star Game? Kipnis, Santana, or both?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Should probably be both, can see it just being Santana

10:25
Comment From Guest
Is James Paxton just a relief pitcher or a closer?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the safe projection but a guy with a fastball, a curve, and spotty command can carve a career as Erik Bedard, because the curve plays well as a pitch to righties

10:26
Comment From Chicago Mark
Say the Giants trade for Garza. Doesn’t that give them some advantage to re-signing him? More the reason to give up a good prospect?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Very slight potential advantage that wouldn’t be unique to Garza. He’s never been a free agent before. Might well want to see what it’s all about

10:27
Comment From Carlos Marmol
What? Relieving is easy?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: You suck

10:28
Comment From Izzy
Matt Harvey is the __th best pitcher in baseball.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: At this very moment, probably top-5

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: so, 4th? 5th?

10:28
Comment From Andrew
Is there a chance Verlander is hiding an injury? I know that his FIP and xFIP are virtually identical to last year, but his velocity is down and his game charts indicate that he’s not getting nearly as much movement on his pitches this season compared to the last couple of seasons. His release point has been more tightly clustered as well, perhaps contributing to the pitch movement. Anyway, might be an interesting subject to look into?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Could be something and I haven’t performed an in-depth investigation but Verlander, probably, is okay. FIP and xFIP are always really strongly compelling evidence. They can mislead, but the burden of proof is on the other side

10:30
Comment From Matt
Which team do you expect to be most aggressive in going after SP?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Orioles, followed by Padres/Giants

10:30
Comment From Badger
If I could trade G Cole for Y Puig should I make the trade thoughts?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I would

10:30
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Ethier to the pirates? They have the mid level prospects to get the deal done if LA picks up the tab.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t even really think he’s an upgrade

10:30
Comment From zack
The cubs would never trade Schierholtz within the division

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a guy you prize forever

10:31
Comment From TKDC
I know I shouldn’t complain because of the standings, but is it too much to ask as a Braves fan that one hitter does not go into a death spiral of suck-a-tude in the first half?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t complain; standings

10:32
Comment From Todd
What do you think the Yankees could get for Hughes or/and Joba?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: A lot less than you want

10:33
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Blueberries or Raspberries?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Blueberries

10:34
Comment From Skore
Is Brown capable of making an impact on the Giants, if only with his legs because of his numbers?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not the spark the Giants are probably looking for

10:34
Comment From depressed
why wont amaro realize the phillies suck?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Why won’t Amaro realize Delmon Young sucks?

10:34
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
How gloomy is Portland in the non-summer months? As bad as Seattle?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: A little better than Seattle, but still gloomy. You get used to it fast.

10:35
Comment From _David_
If an organization is clearly bad at one thing, shouldn’t that be evidence of a flaw in processes (being aware of and fixing weaknesses or being willing to learn and listen to new information) that portents the whole house of cards collapsing? Mariners!

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Every organization is going to be the worst at something, and being bad at one thing doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to be bad at everything. It’s just easy to make it look that way. The Mariners are bad at some things. They seem good at scouting, for example. Can’t just pretend it all sucks.

10:36
Comment From Wily Mo Yen Mo Problems
Which Seattle prospect not named Walker has best improved his stock thus far this season?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Franklin

10:36
Comment From Kevin
Taveras was doing very well at AAA before he rolled his ankle and subsequently re-aggravated it.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: .803 OPS

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: league average is .773, Memphis average is .776

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Better in May but you can’t ignore April

10:37
Comment From Guest
will the al east get all the wildcard spots?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:37
Comment From Cyrus
When are the suspensions coming?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: If they happen, they could happen right soon

10:38
Comment From Joe
Neftali Feliz. SP or RP in return?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Probably RP

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: But we’re talking about a return in August, maybe

10:38
Comment From vin
is there any impact FA the mets could sign in 2014 to be a contender? I keep hearing choo and ellsbury but i really dont see those guys taking the mets offense to the next level.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: There is no player in baseball who would single-handedly make the Mets a contender

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: If there were — if it were Trout, say — well, there’s no Mike Trout who’s going to be a free agent in a few months

10:39
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
I badly want Puig in the home run derby.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: The home run derby is always so much less than it ought to be

10:39
Comment From Billy Hamilton
Am I better or worse than Dee Gordon?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Probably better

10:40
Comment From Bobert
Someone (Appelman!!!) needs to change the link for the WAR leader boards on the right side of the main page from 2012 to 2013. Annoying clicking on them only to go to 2012 when we are half way done the season

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Oh yeah, hey, look at that

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never used those links before

10:40
Comment From Steve
What are your thoughts on Zoilo Almonte?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Generally unflattering

10:40
Comment From Guest
Guti to the Bucs?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Could easily see it

10:41
Comment From vin
do u thinl the mets will contend in 14 and if so what moves do u see them making?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:42
Comment From Adam
What’s a realistic return for Garza and Feldman?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: For Garza, pretty good non-elite prospect, another talented piece or two. For Feldman, less than that

10:42
Comment From vin
if harvey is 4 or 5 give me the pitchers that are better than him this year? i cant think of anyone except kershaw and harvey is ever more dominant than him this year

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: He’s neck-and-neck with Wainwright. Kershaw is right around there, and I’m still a believer in Verlander. Like Felix and Darvish more, because of the AL/NL thing. I’m thinking about more than just this season’s first half

10:43
Comment From John
Everyone wants to criticize Marmol, but a few years ago he was nearly unhittable. So stop piling on.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, Marmol was good. Now he is not

10:44
Comment From Twin Dragons
Your thoughts on major league clubs employing 2 hitting coaches. Help or too much info?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a reasonable course of things. Teams have lots of players and it can’t hurt to have more instruction provided the instructors are on the same page

10:44
Comment From joe
Corey Luebke pitch for the Padres this year?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Seems unlikely. Coin flip

10:45
Comment From East Coast Ms Fan
Give me one reason I should stay up late to watch the Mariners.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about your personal life

10:45
Comment From Birdland
I am really surprised that you feel the Orioles will be aggressive in going after SP. They have consistently locate players have the proverbial trash heap and very rarely trade their prospects. Plus, Angelos never opens the pocketbook!

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t say they’d necessarily be aggressive in going after a top-quality SP!

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: But I think they want help, bad, and they’re mighty close

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: to the race

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: in that they’re in the race.

10:46
Comment From Guest
There are no ROS projections for Puig. So ROS for Puig?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: oh god

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: .300/.340/.550?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: hey, Steamer has something! http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14225&position=OF

10:47
Comment From Guest
Who win the Al West?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Rangers

10:47
Comment From An Optimistic Fan
Thoughts on Seattle shortstop Brad Miller? I mean, they’re playing Brendan Ryan and Miller is just waiting. Do you see a call-up happening?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s happening soon. I like him as a pretty decent long-term shortstop option as long as the errors settle down

10:47
Comment From Twin Dragons
IPA or Amber beer?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: IPA, but neither is my style of choice

10:47
Comment From Guest
How much trouble is Montero in?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Suspension-wise, some. General career-wise, plenty

10:48
Comment From Bird Man
man i’m tired of hearing northwesterners complain about gloom. try going to college in central new york, then you’ll know gloom #weathergraphs

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Most of the time weather almost everywhere sucks. Usually it’s either too gloomy or too humid. Everybody should live in Santa Barbara

10:49
Comment From Twin Dragons
How about Ibanez in the home run derby at 41? Having a good season with the stick.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I really hate baseball sometimes

10:49
Comment From Turtles of Tasman
ROS more valuable Smyly or Benoit?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Smyly

10:49
Comment From Bird Man
what are the odds iwakuma is the al all-star starter

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Low

10:49
Comment From HTD
Brett Lawrie RoS?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Something disappointing

10:50
Comment From Eddie
If the return on Garza is a ‘good, non-elite’ prospect, should the Cubs tender a qualifying offer and try to retain him?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s a good backup plan, but right now they seem motivated to ship him off since he might be the best starter on the market

10:51
Comment From Bird
Are Harper’s injuries going to be an ongoing issue during his career?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’ sa very legitimate concern

10:52
Comment From Guest
O’s try for Saunders Harrang or Bonderman?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Please!

10:52
Comment From Phil
ROS projectons for Jeff Sullivan

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Adequacy, moments of burnout, long chats

10:52
Comment From Jeff Loria
I’ve got pieces coming together with Stanton, Fernandez, Ozuna, Morrison, Marisnick, and Yelich. I also have a pocketful of cash I been hording. How quick before you think I can ambush the NL East?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Not that quick, after you move Stanton in December

10:53
Comment From Lightning Larry Luciano
Who is your favorite player that isn’t good? Roger Bernadina for me

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki

10:53
Comment From Mike
Do you look forward to the NHL off-season?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I enjoy it passively

10:53
Comment From Dan
By ____, the Cubs will be in the playoffs

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: 2015

10:53
Comment From Hillier is the worst manager
Nearing the 2 hour mark for the chat…big ups to you Mr. Sullivan!

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Making up for the slow start. But now I ought to get going! Work to do, conference call to attend

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: So we’re wrapping up. Thank you everybody for participating and sorry for what I missed. We’re going to do it again next Tuesday at about the same time and there will be baseball to discuss. Have great rests of days

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Have great rests of weeks!

10:55
Comment From Zach
Is that grammatically correct?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: hush you




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


6 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/25/13”

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  1. Andrew says:

    Missed party, but wondering if you’re willingness to trade Puig for Cole is more of an indictment on Puig, or great outlook for Cole?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Scraps says:

    Comment From Bird Man
    man i’m tired of hearing northwesterners complain about gloom.

    From a native Seattleite who moved to New York at nineteen and then moved back to Seattle at forty-seven, I think it’s mostly non-Seattleites that bitch about the weather. Seattleites are used to the gloom.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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