Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/4/13

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: New excuse for this today!

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I lost my contact lenses!

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I found them though. And now we can begin our customary baseball live chat about baseball.

9:09
Comment From Steve
It’s past 12:03! Jeff must be dead!

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t see :(

9:10
Comment From Jimr
Is the 3rd base issue settled with the Braves?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Only for now. As Chris Johnson regresses, the Braves will explore the market for potential upgrades. At present, the market hasn’t yet developed.

9:11
Comment From rusty
On a scale of one to Carson Cistulli, how interested are you in pitchers’ first few MLB starts?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Highly interested, relative to the rest. I’m interested in new people and I’m interested in debuts and adjustments. After a few games everyone starts to feel familiar, and that’s great and all, but new’s new

9:12

Comment From Eminor3rd
Hello, Jeff Sullivan. Please describe each of the following nouns with one word:

Chris Davis
Spacetime
Kevin Gausman
Chicago White Sox
Expensive food

Thanks!

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: inconceivable
inconceivable
inconceivable
inconceivable
conceivable

9:13
Comment From David
Is today going to be all about mocking the ESPN Franchise player draft going on concurrently? Or do we expect to talk about other things too?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll need you guys to pay attention to that as it’s live, since I’m stuck right here talking to you guys

9:13
Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Did you see Tango’s response to your pitch framing thoughts?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: About MGL’s study? Yeah, and that methodology is better than mine. I’m not capable of doing that kind of stuff. If it’s there, it’s there, and that’s great. That’s outstanding! And a little surprising.

9:14
Comment From P
Mauer’s swinging rate is up, his contact rate is down, his K% is way up and his results are…good? Anecdotally it seems like he’s trading weak grounders to second base for swinging strikeouts, but is his performance (BABIP fueled as it is) even remotely sustainable?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: This is actually the first I’ve noticed of this trend, and it’s interesting, given that we’re at the two-month point or so. As much as I don’t believe in LD%, it’s interesting that Mauer’s is up at 28%. Obviously he can’t continue having this many balls in play drop in for hits, but it makes sense that he’d ride an approach while it works, and as Mauer’s numbers regress I wouldn’t be surprised if his plate-discipline numbers start to look more familiar too

9:17
Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
If one finds himself literally doing nothing at work is it time to take up blogging?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how often. Rare is the opportunity that an adult has literally nothing to do. You should cherish that time, if it’s unusual. If it’s too usual, yeah, do something else

9:19
Comment From Rob
Do you see a potential closer on the Tigers’ roster as of now? Or is one of the AAA guys (Al Al, Rondon) looking more likely?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: When I looked at this last fall, I liked Alburquerque the most, and not a whole lot has changed in terms of the composition. But usually you don’t want a closer who walks that many dudes. Rondon, I’m still not buying his ability to pitch to lefties. He seems like another situational guy in a bullpen potentially full of them. The Tigers can make do with any of their decent relievers, but there’s not a shutdown option in sight

9:21
Comment From Prich
No backup glasses?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I feel a lot more alert when I’m wearing my contacts

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t you tell how alert I am right now

9:21
Comment From GOB
How worried should we be about CC Sabathia’s velocity and performance drops? Trying to decide whether to value him as an ace or not in a trade.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s some kind of good news: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=404&position=P&pitch=FA

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia’s numbers are a little bit worse, but they’re mostly in line with where they ought to be, and when velocity is down I look to the performance to see if it’s suffering. I think maybe you knock Sabathia down a peg or two from his reputation, but he’s still a real good pitcher so I wouldn’t advise being too alarmed

9:23
Comment From Jeffs Contact Lenses
I was THIS close to escape!

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: You were on the handsoap!

9:23
Comment From Scott
When referring to Adam Dunn as a baseball player, is it more appropriate to put the scare quotes around the word “baseball” or “player”?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball would be more appropriate, but it would still be inappropriate

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: not in a dirty way

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: in the literal way

9:24
Comment From Tim
David Glass is mostly an absentee owner, but how many losses this season would it take for him to fire Dayton Moore?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, 90-95? Such similar situations in Kansas City and Seattle. Such similar excuses. Eventually, people stop listening. Both teams should strongly consider starting over

9:26
Comment From _David_
As pitch framing becomes more publicly prominent, could there be a backlash in some form with umpires targeting, consciously or not, known framers?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I think this would be interesting to follow — umpires, surely, are going to start to know about the best and worst guys. They probably already know who they are, but they might not be aware of the extent to which they help/hurt. So you could conceivably see some regression at the framing extremes. But I don’t think it would be major, because what an umpire sees is what an umpire sees and he’s not going to think through every call on every pitch. Subconsciously, there could be a thing, but I think the practical effect would be small.

9:28
Comment From Zach
Who makes the playoffs first, the Astros or Marlins?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Marlins by a year

9:28
Comment From Ben
Have there been any studies on pitcher performance after they have to run the bases?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve at least heard the suggestion but I can’t think of anything off the top of my head. Hypothesis: it has very little effect!

9:28
Comment From Kate
Being blind sucks. I couldn’t find my glasses the other day.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Probably because you were blind

9:28
Comment From French Poodle
So Puig is going into the Hall of Fame before Jackie Bradley Jr now huh?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: All the great outfielders have amazing arms, like Jeff Francoeur

9:29
Comment From Anon21
What’s a healthy ratio of schadenfreude-derived joy to regular joy in baseball fandom? For example, if as much as one-third of my current enjoyment of baseball is derived from the woeful performance of the ludicrously overconfident Washington Nationals, is that… too much?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the identity of your favorite team. The worse your team is, the more you have to look to other teams for emotional satisfaction

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’m loving the hell out of what’s happening with the Angels, but that’s mostly because my favorite team sucks

9:30
Comment From Guest #1
Im starting to think the worst thing a rookie can do is overachieve in theure rookie cup of coffee. If you look at Desmond Jenning, Hosmer or Lawrie, they are almost guaranteed to disspoint for their entire careers

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley!

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: It definitely helps to set unreasonable expectations. And oftentimes the initial expectations are unreasonable to begin with. You’d rather a guy succeed at first than not succeed, of course, but quick success doesn’t prove anything, any more than Mike Trout’s initial struggles proved anything

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: And fans can be really crappy about this stuff

9:32
Comment From Kate
What do the Rangers do with Jurickson Profar? What should the Rangers do with Jurickson Profar?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think they keep him around as a semi-regular. And I think they *should* keep him around as a semi-regular, since he’s better than the alternatives. Going into next year, move Kinsler and/or Moreland

9:34
Comment From Rated Rookie
Kevin Gausman: groundball-inducing power pitcher?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: His grounder rates are unexceptional, but he’s definitely not a fly ball guy

9:35
Comment From Max
Who will be better ROS: Cargo or Braun?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t go wrong with either. This is unhelpful! But true. Flip a coin. Flip it again. Keep flipping the coin. Then pick one of the baseball players after you put the coin away.

9:35
Comment From The Masses
Thoughts on Bo Puig?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: I wish I could watch him without having heard everything everyone’s already said about him

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I want to be able to observe a guy like Puig without everybody chiming in. I want to be free of potential biases and that’s practically impossible

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: He’s neat and flawed and potentially incredible

9:37
Comment From rusty
What changes, if any, would pique your interest in national-team-organized baseball?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: This is a stupid cop-out answer but I want changes such that the players actually care. It’s too complicated a topic to think of off the top of my head but you’d need to loosen the restrictions or increase the incentives somehow. I honestly don’t know how feasible it is to have a true, meaningful tournament when everyone’s thinking about the regular season and no teams want their players to get injured.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers, man. Pitchers are too damn fragile for extra tournaments.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you go with amateurs. Maybe you go with non-major-leaguers. But MLB team affiliations get in the way of this stuff.

9:39
Comment From Brooklyn Burro
Which young A’s starter would you want to start for you on the road (i.e. away from the Coliseum): Parker, Milone, Griffin, or Straily?)

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: My head tells me Milone. My head then tells me nobody really stands out from the group so it’s silly to pick one out of four.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: They’re mostly so similar. There’s no hidden right answer, I don’t think

9:41
Comment From Three Little Puigies
Headley to the braves really seems to make sense…. Right?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, some, but the Padres might be unwilling to make a move since they’re not all that far off and their pitchers ought to be getting healthy soonish

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see if the Padres decide that Headley isn’t really the superstar he was in 2012. They’d like to have a franchise player

9:44
Comment From SidneyCrosby(Not)
Thoughts on ROS McLouth?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: A lot of this year’s McLouth, a little of last year’s McLouth. He’s made a certain change, with the increased contact, and that can’t be entirely dismissed

9:45
Comment From Metsamorphosis
RoS line for Skaggs

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly for this sort of stuff you should take the projections’ word over mine

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Seldom am I going to consider myself more informed and objective than the actual data

9:46
Comment From Brett
Speaking of 3rd base issues, do you see a regression to the mean for Will Middlebrooks or should the Red Sox explore other options?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Both, but the latter won’t really get them anywhere, probably. They could use a better sub than Ciriaco, to spell Middlebrooks some more. Sorry for taking so long to write this nothing answer but talking about Middlebrooks always sends me into research mode and that’s not appropriate for chats

9:49
Comment From Jimr
Will Gibson (SP) be brought up soon for the Twins?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much without question

9:49
Comment From Steve
Thoughts on Nick Franklin so far? Yahoo curiously lists him as “Eduardo Franklin” just about every other day before reverting it back to Nick.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I believe it’s “Edmundo” Franklin but maybe it varies

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: He’s got a disciplined approach and a line-drive swing. He looks like he could make a quick adjustment to the majors, even if he doesn’t become a star, which he won’t. He might well be adequate right away

9:53
Comment From Charlie Hustle
What’s your take on Corey Kluber?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Not much I don’t like. God bless the magical cutter. Hard to fake the results he’s been able to generate.

9:54
Comment From Anon21
Jayson Werth’s preseason statement that the Phillies were the biggest threat to the Nationals is almost too rich now that the Phillies are threatening to pass the Nationals… for second place.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: See? He wasn’t wrong!

9:54
Comment From Nick O
How many times in 10 would a ML starter with average command trying to throw a fastball on the outer third of the plate succeed?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I think maybe 6/10 times, he’d hit the outer third, and maybe 3/10 or 4/10 times he’d hit the outer third around the intended height

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on handedness and batted handedness and type of fastball, ,of course, and this is guesswork. But pitchers aren’t that good at locating! Relative to what you might expect

9:56
Comment From Kevin
At this point teams’ claims regarding pitchers “consistency” at AAA is just a cover for Super-2 status, right? I’m looking at Wheeler and Kyle Gibson.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Big part of it, yeah, but they all always have consistency concerns. Every young pitcher is inconsistent. Most older pitchers are inconsistent. The giveaway is when you see which prospects get promoted around this time of year. They didn’t all have magical early-June breakthroughs

9:57
Comment From the Philly Fanatic
should cole hamels try to fix himself like Niese did and look in the mirror?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like Cole Hamels is probably constantly looking in the mirror

9:57
Comment From Guest #1
Does every team have a fielder occasionally practise pitching, just in case?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Not officially, I don’t believe, but position players are constantly “pitching” when they’re throwing back and forth with one another. They’ll always try to mess around with grips and secondary stuff to have some fun

9:58
Comment From Alexander the Great
They are doing the Franchise Draft over on ESPN. Who is your top 5 to start a franchise with?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. First of all, no pitchers

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Harper, Trout, Machado…Longoria? Tulowitzki?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Posey if one gets too concerned over Tulo’s fragility

10:01
Comment From Henry Cotto
What current major league player would you compare Will Myers to?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: The one I keep hearing is Jay Bruce so let’s go with that one

10:01
Comment From Doberman Pinscher
If your best estimation, should Jack Zduriencik be fired right now or after the season or never?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: After the season

10:02
Comment From Guest
“He’s swung in 16 of 20 3-and-1 counts. Before this year, he swung in 29 of 53. He’s swung in four of 14 3-and-0 counts…”

10:02
Comment From Adam Mac
From your Dom Brown article. Where is this kind of count-specific information available? Really enjoyed it. Thx.

10:03
Comment From Matt
Both Ackley and Chisenhall are looking pretty good in AAA… should I put any stock into these numbers or are they doomed to be AAAA kind of players?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: That’s an extreme perspective! Be encouraged, and wait for more than a few weeks’ worth of numbers since it’s not like they’re going to solve their problems instantly

10:03
Comment From Max
What is your NLCS and ALCS predictions right now?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers/Rangers, Cardinals/Reds

10:04
Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP
The Marlins are making a gallant effort at unseating the 2003 Detroit Tigers for worst team in the modern era. Think they can get there, especially if they sell off any assets at the deadline?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t really have much to sell. And Stanton will be back, and Morrison will be back, and more prospects could come up. I think the Marlins will get better and the Astros might get worse, since *they* have pitchers they might move and their pitching depth blows

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Marlins right now project for 57-105 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Amazing how the Twins, Astros, and Marlins are so separated from the rest of the pack

10:06
Comment From juan pierres mustache
I went to the Phillies game last night, and I found out that there is apparently a Major League Baseball franchise based in Miami!

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: You must be a new fan! Welcome to FanGraphs! The place for fans!

10:07
Comment From Guest
What do you expect the Brewers can get in return for Aramis Ramirez? Seems like he should have plenty of suitors, but I’m not sure how his contract plays into it.

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: A good prospect and a prospect you might be able to convince yourself is good

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: No one outstanding

10:08
Comment From DL Hell
Pitchers headed in polar opposite directions with similar overall numbers right now: Jeremy Hellickson or Rich Porcello ROS?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Porcello

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Porcello, as it happens, has an absurd 3.02 xFIP

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: man, the Tigers

10:09
Comment From Squinty
Logan Morrison, coming back from knee injury, top-20 1B ROS?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not very good but I suppose if you only care about offense he could be of very moderate interest

10:09
Comment From Andrew
Enjoyed you article about Dom Brown, but just wanted to warn you not to ruin him. Thanks.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: /throws away poison envelope

10:10
Comment From Goose
Hosmer of Belt Ros?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Belt probably

10:10
Comment From Squinty
Tyler Chatwood, recent injury aside, is he worth discussing? 23 year old, former good prospect, looking pretty damn good between AAA and the majors so far for the Rockies.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: The injury doesn’t seem to be a major stumbling block and yeah, Chatwood’s figured out how to do something he’s never been able to do before. He’s back on the radar as a starting pitcher of some relevance

10:11
Comment From Steve
Please tell me Matt Cain will become better going forward

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Okay

10:12
Comment From Doug
What happens to Moustakas from here on out? It seems he’s a bit lost out there and his LD% is down, he’s hitting more FBs and getting less HR/FB??

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that his swing is not good. There’s very little progress that he’s made and you can’t put that many batted balls in the air if you don’t have tremendous power.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Given that he’s still 24 he’ll get plenty more chances but he might have to get a few of those with a different baseball team

10:15
Comment From Prich
Maybe I’m re-writing history, but Nick Franklin sure looks like he’s squaring the ball up with more authority than Mr. Ackley ever did at this level. I know, SSS, but dude hits it with authoritah

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley was absolutely amazing at first

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: .309/.377/.544 through 39 starts

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Every time he came up, it felt like he was going to hit a line drive

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: God dammit, Ackley

10:16
Comment From Eminor3rd
JERRY CRASNICK CHOOSES MIKE TROUT FIRST OVERALL!

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout is a very good baseball player who is arguably a better pick than Bryce Harper! And Harper is arguably a better pick than Trout

10:17
Comment From Ms fan
Can I get your support in my campaign to rename WAR to WAAP? (Wins above Albert Pujols)

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: might offend Italians

10:17
Comment From _David_
Did you see Brendan Ryan’s double play last night? Almost as good as the one in San Diego. Notice how he subtly adjusted his glove’s grip on the ball before flipping it.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: At the end of every night or at the start of every morning, I suggest people pull up the day’s top defensive highlights

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Look for guys like Ryan or Simmons or Beltre or whoever. Just watch what they do, and pay attention to how you take them for granted. Consider just what you’re taking for granted

10:19
Comment From Jacob
Trout and Harper, you can only have one for the rest of their careers

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: This question again? I think I like Trout more by a little margin as I get the sense Harper might miss a lot of games over the course of his career

10:19
Comment From Soft Coated Wheaten Terrier
How late do you wait to fill out your All-Star ballot? You do fill out an All-Star ballot right?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: N/A, nope

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Unless I’m at an actual ballpark, in which case I fill it out in accordance with how drunk I am

10:21
Comment From Kate
Who is the first casualty as a result of the Angels’ lack of success so far this season?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Torn between batting coach for some reason and Albert Pujols’ playing time

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Not really a whole lot that can be done. Blanton’s improved, can’t bench Pujols/Hamilton, hardly any organizational depth

10:22
Comment From Mike
Do the Blue Jays deal Josh Johnson?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably, provided he shows he can pitch healthy-like

10:23
Comment From Kevin
Do you watch Game of Thrones?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: No. Good question! I barely watch TV

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I spend so much time working on a computer that when I’m finished I seldom want to spend more time looking at a screen

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: obvious Breaking Bad exception because get real

10:23
Comment From FutilityInflder
Love the framing series – is there information available that places it relative to the batter’s stance? I think can be an interesting study but don’t know how can be compiled

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Framing considers a batter’s vertical dimensions but I don’t think we have any measure of where a batter stands in the box. Could be interesting to look at, and maybe anecdotally we can compare guys who crowd vs. some guys who stand way back. But I haven’t seen anything to this effect

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: The “lefty strike” might possibly go away for lefties who don’t stand close to the plate. That’s a guess.

10:25
Comment From Dan J.
How accurate are the Pitch-tracking graphics we see on TV? Do they adjust to each batter’s height?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the location data is fine, but they use a very simplistic strike zone that isn’t in any way the actual strike zone as it’s called. Different broadcasts use different information

10:26
Comment From Jacob
Do wins ever go bye bye?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll always be there, but they won’t always get paid attention to

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: From time to time we’ll notice them collecting dust

10:26
Comment From Wobatus
ETA for Brad Miller taking over for Brendan Ryan? Maybe after an errorless week from Miller?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Few weeks. Don’t want to rush Miller — Mike Zunino had initial success, too. And want to build a market for Ryan’s services among contenders

10:27
Comment From Pembroke Welsh Corgi
Are the Angels hilarious or what?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: this weekend, the Astros swept, and the Marlins swept

10:27
Comment From Three Little Puigies
Braves enjoy a 7 game lead in the NL East. Barring injuries and looking at projections, let us pop champagne!

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Just like last year’s Rangers!

10:28
Comment From Steve
What the heck is going on with Billy Butler? I’m betting on a rebound. Thoughts?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Seems to be getting pitched around a bit. The difference between his numbers and his career numbers is basically BABIP. He should be okay

10:31
Comment From Travis
When Beachy gets back into the rotation, who do you think is gonna be leaving?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: This is a tough one. I think it’ll be Teheran, because that would be easiest, but I don’t necessarily think that would be permanent. They’ll probably need a sixth starter

10:33
Comment From Steve
I keep hearing Byron Buxton mentioned in the same conversation as Trout, Harper, Machado, yet I also hear he’s likely a few years away. Any reason he couldn’t rise to the majors by 21?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of reasons, sure, but you can look for him down the stretch in 2014

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: He should be in the majors when he’s 20, but probably not quite as a fixture

10:34
Comment From Erik
Is there any advantage to the Mariners trying to deal Wilhelmsen before the trade deadline? Considering his age, this has got to be his ceiling, right?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Just about. The Mariners should explore it, but I don’t know what kind of market he’d have since he’s not yet thought of as “proven” and teams pay less for closers than they used to

10:34
Comment From _David_
Jeff, predictions for the NBA finals?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I swear to god, I honestly don’t know who’s playing in it

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I know the Heat and Pacers played yesterday?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: So I’ll go with whoever won that game

10:36
Comment From Richie
So what was outstanding and surprising about MGL’s study, for the many of us who haven’t seen it?

10:36
Comment From Jeff
Jeff, Jim Bowden says that Bryce Harper plays the game at 100mph, what does that mean?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: It means that Bowden thinks Harper is willfully reckless

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: it also means that Bowden is a terrible estimator of ground speed

10:38
Comment From Irish Water Spaniel
Most valuable piece of trade bait in the sport of baseball heading into the deadline will be….?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Lee?

10:39
Comment From Bud
Nava’s a pretty cool story, no? He’s not on the ballot, but would you consider him worthy of ASG consideration (4th or 5th OF?) based on his offensive numbers so far? His WAR is docked pretty heavily by negative UZR right now.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: too many good outfielders, but yeah, Nava’s at least in the fringes of the conversation which is crazy given what he’s been through

10:40
Comment From Wirehaired Pointing Griffon
Estimate Kendrys Morales’ next contract. Length and girth — err — dollars.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: $38m/3?

10:41
Comment From P
Got a worse batting stance off the top of your head than this: http://tinyurl.com/mbe4bek

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: this is without question the best thing I’ll see all day long

10:43
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Coach of the year: Mickey Callaway? He turned Ubaldo from trainwreck to above serviceable.

10:43
Comment From jake
except that isn’t his batting stance. its just a starting point. he gets into a normal looking stance soon after

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: What’s the term for the initial pre-stance position?

10:45
Comment From Jon
Do you know how different predictive models are ultimately judged? With a standard model you would look at the sum of squared errors, but if you’re predicting so many different things (BA, HR, SB, RBI, etc.), how do you measure the error across all of these different dimensions?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: you’re not really measuring how they did for every single statistic

10:46
Comment From Ryan
Braves have a very good problem. Can we just say that?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Sure!

10:47
Comment From TJ
Do you think that Strasburg, Harper, & Trout have put prospects on fans’ radar a bit more? Feel like this frenzy over Puig & Profar wouldn’t have happened 10 years ago.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: –> media’s radar –> fans’ radar. There’s a middleman

10:48
Comment From Blockhead
This recent Phillies’ surge kills any chance of them eating a bunch of Lee’s contract and moving him doesn’t it?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still seven back of the wild card in early June. Lee could still definitely get moved

10:48
Comment From James
How can they possibly cut back on Pujols playing time? They are in year TWO of a ten year deal. Is this deal going to make the A-Rod Yankees deal look good in comparison?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I meant they might finally decide to put him on the DL. Don’t let him play through aches and pains while he underperforms. This deal is definitely off to a dreadful beginning

10:49
Comment From Pork Sale
Who would be a better friend, Trout or Harper?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Trout would be more positive and uplifting, Harper would be the energy guy who keeps a group motivated and a party exciting

10:50
Comment From Max
Odds Giancarlo gets traded this year?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Low this season, high after this season

10:50
Comment From Jason
Jeff, what is the deal with McCutchen?? Walks and strikeouts are both down, as is the power production. Maybe not being selective enough?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s having 2010 again. He was never going to repeat last year’s BABIP and that might have represented his power ceiling, too. He’s going to be better the rest of the way, but he’s not going to slug .550

10:53
Comment From J-dub
Porcello over the last month has essentially (k% and bb%) been king felix with a better GB% and much worse HR/FB. and chance he can keep some more balls in the park?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: If a guy’s big problem is an inflated HR/FB, that guy’s in a hell of a promising position

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I need to cut this off now and get to other stuff. Sorry for the late start and the pacing, and sorry for not getting to all of your questions and comments.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you for playing along, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday at or around the same time. Have a great rest of your day, everybody

10:55
Comment From God
Jeffrey, I don’t approve of you ending is chat

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: haha I showed you!



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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