Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/16/13

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Good ol reliable Jeff, always unreliable

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: FanGraphs chat!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: All right, finally, errors overcome. Jesus

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: This thing, sometimes…

9:08
Comment From bdhudson
Did you read Rick Reilly’s article about the lying scumbag that apparently is Chris Davis? What do you think about his ‘we have to accuse everybody’ approach?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I was told about Reilly’s article, which gave me enough information to know to just skip it.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: What’s the benefit of reading that kind of garbage? He’s an awful sportswriter. Awful and unoriginal.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: People have their own comfortable levels of skepticism, and they’re mostly individual. Me, I just don’t really even care.

9:09
Comment From ozzie
2nd half line for Harper?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Good

9:09
Comment From Bo
Should the Braves go for broke and sell the farm for someone like Samardzija? They’ve got about a three-year window.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, the question is “should the Braves sacrifice some future for more of a guaranteed present.” But the future is unknown and the present is unguaranteeable, so in reality the question is “should the Braves pursue a trade for Samardzija?” In which case my answer is, sure, why not? But only to a point, as always

9:11

Comment From Scott
If you have two players, one who will produce 15.5 WAR in 6 team controlled year, but only a 15% chance to reach that level, and another who will produce 3 WAR in 6 team controlled years, with a 75% chance of reaching that level. Obviously I picked numbers so that the expected WARs are basically equal (2.325…2.25).

All things equal (position, team’s spot on marginal win curve, etc), would a team rather draft Player A or Player B?

All things equal, would a team rather draft 5 Player As or 5 Player Bs?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Player A and five Player A’s. The level of Player B is just so low that it’s almost without real value. You’re talking about *maybe* half a win a season, and that’s nothing. That’s a half-decent bench player. Teams will sometimes choose safety over risk, but not if the safety is in the form of a fungible asset. That’s not a high floor, so to speak

9:14
Comment From Jason
Should teams be able to stop paying money to released players that don’t catch on with another team? How much money do you think Chone Figgins would have needed to give the Marlins to in order to collect his $9M?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: A bad contract is a bad contract

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s too simple but I don’t see anything wrong with the current setup

9:15
Comment From Phil
This is the first time that I enabled the sound of the chats and it reminds me of the transformers noise

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s become automatic for me to mute my computer as soon as I fire up the chat window

9:16
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Yoenis Cespedes is a strong man

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much the whole point of the home run derby right there

9:16
Comment From zack
Colby Rasmus is tied for second among AL outfielders in WAR. Granted he has a +10 uzr, but still WTF?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Things I didn’t expect to be the future when Rasmus was running like a 50% contact rate

9:16
Comment From Sam
the trade value series has Jeff Samardzija ranked ahead of David Price (I know this is largely for financial reasons). Who would you rather have for the next 5 years?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I think Samardzija by a hair. Moderately concerned about Price’s velocity drop

9:18
Comment From Neil
What’s the most fun moment(s) of baseball for you so far this year? Mine is Pena tagging out Swisher. (Link to video: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130708&content_id=53159644&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb )

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Admitting my bias, maybe Kyle Seager’s game-tying, extra-innings grand slam, even though the Mariners eventually lost

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: But there are a lot of candidates, almost none of which I can remember off the top of my head, because my memory is embarrassing

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Seriously, if any of you are doctors with experimental memory drugs, email me and I’ll give you my home address and thousands of dollars

9:20
Comment From Steve
Did you break up with Gifs? It was probably for the best

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Not every post includes .gifs! It’s never been that way!

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: But I just had .gifs in the post about Longoria/Street yesterday

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: There are too many .gifs on the Internet and I’m conscious of that, but they’re also extraordinarily helpful

9:21
Comment From Dan
Christ just be better than Szymborski’s chat yesterday, who talked about terrorizing his sister…

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a sister

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I do have a sister-in-law now, which is still weird to say

9:22
Comment From Guest
What do the M’s do with Stefen Romero? Is he trade bait?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Well, the team is short on outfielders, but Romero hasn’t really hit yet in Triple-A. So he’s not forcing anything

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: There were thoughts he might be the next Catricala. He might be kind of on that path

9:23
Comment From bdhudson
The phillies have played their way into believing they will make a run, which they won’t. They trade nobody and continue to be bad. True?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll make some moves but they seem like a team that might end up moving parts in August

9:24
Comment From nacho
Who impressed you the most at the derby last night? I was surprised by Cuddyer’s power, but Prince hit some real moonshots last night.

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Cespedes but I didn’t watch because I’m not an insane person

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t ask me about the All-Star Game either! I’m going to the gym.

9:25
Comment From Alex
Chris Davis broke a blister on his hand last night at the HR Derby. Is this something that can carry into the week after the break and hinder performance?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be fine super quick

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: MAYBE IT’S A STEROID BLISTER

9:26
Comment From MBM
Paul Maholm: Useful fantasy starter ROS? His peripherals still look solid…

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: He’s Paul Maholm. He’s as useful as Paul Maholm has ever been

9:27
Comment From Joe
2014 and beyond, can you rank Matt Adams, Rizzo, and Hosmer? Thanks!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like you already did

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Or did you mean rank them in a specific order?

9:27
Comment From RetireNutting
Am I crazy for not wanting Rios anywhere near the Pirates roster? His +2wins ROS aren’t worth loss of future wins when STL still will win NLC, right?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how many future wins you think getting Alex Rios is going to cost, but the Pirates wouldn’t have to give up the farm. And this is a tight race. Rios isn’t the only option, but he’d be a definite, substantial upgrade

9:29
Comment From Eddie
The ASB is all the misery of the offseason, plus a heat index of 100!

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s helpful to have a few days of no new baseball, to allow us to more deeply reflect on all the past baseball

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: It’s been more than 90 games, for everybody! What a ride it’s been, mabe

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: The season is god-damned long and at least for me, this break is necessary for survival

9:31
Comment From Gary
I seem to be having tremendous difficulty with my lifestyle

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Try something new that you commit to once or twice a week. Something that also exposes you to different people.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: It sounds like your life needs a little seasoning

9:32
Comment From Jason
What kind of contract could Ryan Braun get in Japan if he were permanently banned from MLB?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago I think the highest salary in Japan was a little over $5 million a season?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: So, not the kind of contract you might think

9:35
Comment From Guest
Which young M’s hitters would you extend this year/off season, if any?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Time to get Seager locked up

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: No pressure with any of the others

9:36
Comment From Josef
Any predictions on what the highest-leverage plate appearance will entail tonight?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: If I ever make an All-Star Game prediction I hope somebody breaks into my apartment and forces me at gunpoint to hang myself

9:38
Comment From Douglas
Jeff: scenario. Angry Blue Jays fans revolt against the team’s administration during this brutal season, and through some strange dealings, you are appointed GM. After panicking and trying to replace yourself with someone more qualified, only to be told this is now a dictatorship where you will work for life, what are your first steps to helping the on-the-field team for a rebound in 2014?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Well, already I think the Jays are fairly well positioned to make a run in 2014, regardless. So that’s an important consideration

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I see how Josh Johnson feels about a pricey one-year contract, to allow him to re-establish some value before going into the FA market

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I scour the market for an actual catcher

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: it’s not an easy situation and it’d be really helpful if Brett Lawrie didnt’ suck

9:43
Comment From Bryan G.
Hey there, Jeff. What’s the funniest thing you’ve seen in baseball this year?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: DAMN THIS MEMORY OF MINE

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: THINKING

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Recently, there was bird http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2915033/bird.gif

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: ummm

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Man this sucks. Crowdsource!

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: This is my most embarrassing, shameful trait :(

9:45
Comment From bdhudson
Last night, Adam Jones put ketchup on a hot dog. This is unacceptable.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: If you’re already going to eat a hot dog I’m pretty sure it doesn’t matter what you choose to put on top of it, you’re already murdering yourself

9:46
Comment From Dan
What can I reasonably expect for Big Fat Bartolo Colon in a trade right now?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Probably more if you don’t call him that

9:46
Comment From Guest
Why is Danny Espinosa projected to receive 188 of the 290 remaining ABs as the Nats 2B and Anthony Rendon only projected to receive 43?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Human error

9:46
Comment From Redbeard
Where do you see kendrys Moralas ending the season. You know other than the closest buffet.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I actually think he might stay with the Mariners. Depends how the M’s feel about keeping him for a few years — they can keep him, extend a qualifying offer, and deal a blow to his FA market

9:47
Comment From John W.
So, do you think this Mariners offense is going to stick around a while?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: As the best offense in the league? No

9:48
Comment From Michael
Hey Jeff, on a scale of 1 to Puig, how awesome was Cespedes’ bat flip last night?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: 8.5

9:48
Comment From Danny
Odds that Chris Davis limits regression and hits 60 homeruns?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Low, because in this way I am a conservative

9:49
Comment From 20longyears
Let’s assume that Gregory Polanco is playing outfield for the Pirates this time next year. How highly would a Marte/Cutch/Polanco outfield rate? All elite fielders and hitters with some power, but nobody with the elite HR power typically expected from a corner outfielder.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Polanco has a sub-.800 OPS in Double-A

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Going to go ahead and not get ahead of myself here

9:49
Comment From John
Do you know how Theo Epstein must have felt last year now when he watched what he built crumble so quickly?

9:50
Comment From Steve
Cespedes still sucks even though he won the derby. Agree? Just a dismal 2013 season.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:50
Comment From Ira
Can you explain the Oakland A’s?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: They are smart and good and deep

9:50
Comment From Steve
Brad Miller. Capable of a .350 woba 2nd half of this season?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Capable, yes, but won’t do it

9:51
Comment From Phil
Remember when Rick Reilly used to write interesting, thoughtful articles for SI?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I remember thinking that’s how it was but I haven’t gone back to read his old material

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness it probably isn’t easy to write about sports for like 40 or 50 years

9:51
Comment From John
What did you do with the extra 3 hours you had last night not liveblogging the Home Run Derby?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I wrote about Manny Machado

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: also I jogged but holy hell is that ever uninteresting to you

9:52
Comment From Steve
Prince Fielder. On the decline? Thoughts?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not getting better but he’s got good years still ahead of him

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than his current WAR pace

9:54
Comment From Steve
Does Joe Mauer’s rising K rate give you enough cause to question his future?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I would have to investigate to get a better idea of what’s up, but given what Mauer’s still doing, I’m of the immediate sense this is probably a deliberate choice that he made

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Groundball rate is way down and so maybe he’s just trying to hit for a bit more power

9:55
Comment From Jason
Why doesn’t managing-editor Dave Cameron just get you a MacBook Air like him?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want one and haven’t asked for one

9:55
Comment From zack
Adam Dunn has made two all star teams yet somehow has never been in the home run derby. Makes no sense

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: The Home Run Derby doesn’t make sense

9:55
Comment From Tim A
The A’s should get more love!

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: They get a lot of it

9:55
Comment From Kate
Should the Rangers go after a RH bat or a starting pitcher?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:56
Comment From bdhudson
Who loses his job first, Eric Wedge or Mike Scioscia?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: As of right now, it’s a total coin flip, but if the M’s don’t disappoint the rest of the way, then Scioscia

9:56
Comment From McExpos
Hi Jeff! Would you please wax poetic on being a writer for a specific team vs. being a national writer? I watch 0% of baseball that isn’t the Mariners but watch about 100 games a year of the M’s, and I wonder what it would be like to care less about one specific team and care more about baseball in general.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot more emotion involved when you’re just watching one team, and it colors the experience and the writing. When you’re observing baseball in general, overall, there’s less emotion and more just looking around for what interests you.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say there can’t be emotion when you’re watching someone else — Tim Lincecum’s no-hitter was fun — but it’s different. And with other teams, you know things in less detail

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s vitally important to have a deepest tie to one team, but when that one team isn’t pulling its weight, it’s also important to be able to appreciate the rest of the game, because when times are bad for the one team the rest of the game can remind you why you choose to give a shit

9:59
Comment From Brady
How much do the Rays get for Rodney last offseason

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Not a ton — teams still wouldn’t have trusted him very much

9:59
Comment From Steve
Kyle Seager… guy is legit. Agree? Not getting fortunate, can really hit the ball

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: A guy maximizing his tools, and the counter-argument to people who say the Mariners have terrible player development

10:00
Comment From Quinn
Is Greinke’s velocity drop worrisome? I suspect that some of it can be attributed to classification error with increased cutter use, but it still seems disconcerting when combined with his falling K rate.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, Greinke’s rate of contact allowed is actually better this year than it was last year.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: And his velocity seems to be improving a bit. So I’m not tremendously worried, any more than I am with the typical starting pitcher

10:02
Comment From Guest
Can you please explain why Endy Chavez ever gets ABs for the Mariners?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I sure can’t!

10:02
Comment From Dan
Follow-up to Bo: Why would the Cubs want to move Samardzija? Isn’t he a cornerstone of the 2015 / 2016 teams that hope to compete with the likes of Rizzo, Castro, Soler, Almora, Baez?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they don’t have much reason, but they’d be open to it because he only has two years left of team control, and he’s a pitcher

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Basically, they won’t shop Samardzija around, but they’ll consider, deeply, any proposals

10:04
Comment From Geoff
Will Ervin Santana get dealt? If so, what should he fetch?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: He should, and not much. Second- or third-tier prospect

10:05
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Does Cespedes improve his contact in the 2nd half like he did last year?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see compelling reason to think so

10:06
Comment From s
It would be the most Mariners thing ever to sign Raul Ibanez for 3/$35

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: No, that would be beyond silly, but I expected that contract for Morse a few months ago, before the injuries set in

10:06
Comment From Guest
Do you think Garza is enough of an upgrade over alternative deadline-pitchers like Lincecum, J Johnson, or Hughes to meet the Cubs’ high demands for him?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what their demands are but he’s the best pitcher on the market and they’re going to get something done soon

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: No one knows what to expect from Lincecum, Johnson’s always been a question mark, and Hughes isn’t much, not that the stadium has helped at all

10:07
Comment From Billy Beane
Not many upgrades available for me here, I am a buyer that can’t buy.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: You built a good team over the winter

10:07
Comment From Guest
Do you think one day people will learn to post questions in this box instead of in the comments section?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Not all people

10:07
Comment From Jdub
Since the article you wrote on Rick Porcello’s release point and its correlation to his success, have you been following up on that through his ups and downs?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. Wrote about him on May 29

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Since then, 9 walks, 40 strikeouts, 48.1 innings

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: .320 BABIP in front of a bad defense

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like it’s still the new Rick Porcello

10:09
Comment From rumor mill
Timmy Lincecum for Drew Smyly and Avasail Garcia….which side hangs up first?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers

10:10
Comment From bdhudson
Manny is slugging .600. How many varied emotions will I, as a Rangers fan, feel if he gets called up?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: 6

10:10
Comment From Paul B.
When i look at Mark Buehrle i see a guy with a career FIP over 4.00, a low K/9 and an average ground ball rate. what am i missing. is the fact that he throws 200 innings every year that valuable??

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: ERA 29 points below his career FIP while spending a lot of time throwing a lot of innings in a hitter-friendly environment

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: He’s never really been amazing but he’s been consistently above-average for a very long time

10:12
Comment From Adam
I know that this won’t happen….but what type of return would Braun draw right now? Didn’t even make Cameron’s top 50…I would argue if there is enough value that the brewers should consider moving him to avoid an Arod-eque future of speculation and injuries.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Teams are aware of the possibility of an A-rod-esque future of speculation and injuries. Braun is signed for a lot of money through 2020 and right now no one really has any idea what’s going to happen to him in the immediate. Braun has some value, for sure, but I don’t think right now is a time that the Brewers could unload him for someone else’s farm system. Teams don’t know what to do about the Biogenesis crap

10:14
Comment From Danny
Do you think Bud Norris gets traded at the deadline? If so, to who and what kind of prospects would he command?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s gone, to any of a number of contenders for a B prospect

10:14
Comment From zack
Is there such a thing as a minor shoulder issue when it comes to pitchers?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:14
Comment From bdhudson
Do you think Martin Perez’s ceiling is a middle to back end of the rotation guy?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s not his ceiling

10:15
Comment From bdhudson
If Bud Selig was a member of the Justice League, he would be __?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: fictional

10:15
Comment From RetireNutting
Why is Travis Snider not very good at baseball?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: He’s very good at baseball

10:15
Comment From Guest
Brandon Belt is now .274/.346/.436 over the last calendar year, which in SF’s lefty-crushing park is good for a 120 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR. Safe to say he’s coming into his own?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny. Suddenly we have signs of legitimate life from Belt, Hosmer, and Smoak, just when it looked safe to declare them all crushing disappointments

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Boy am I glad I didn’t write that article a few months back!

10:16
Comment From Arthi
When are you going to move to New Zealand

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: When I grow some balls

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: and also when I get sick of Oregon, which is the US’s New Zealand equivalent

10:16
Comment From zack
How bad is Tajuan Walkers hair?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Not literally the very worst

10:17
Comment From my jays are red
i remember dave cameron said something about applying for an internship at fangraphs, which i am incredibly interested in. any info you can give on that?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Email him

10:18
Comment From Gary Payton
Kuma and Perez for Joc Pederson, which GM says no first?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Zduriencik would say no first

10:18
Comment From Anon21
If I could guarantee you that the Mariners would win the 2014 World Series, what’s the maximum number of succeeding consecutive losing seasons that you would agree to “pay” for that championship?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t pay anything for that guarantee, because there’s no fun at all in a guaranteed championship

10:18
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
If Matt Harvey was standing next to you and you didn’t realize it was him, what advice would you offer him?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Watched that yesterday and realized I probably wouldn’t recognize Matt Harvey in public either

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I’d tell him to keep reaching for the stars

10:19
Comment From Dan
Thoughts on Bud Selig never ever having sent an email?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Miraculous and somewhat enviable because I really hate email sometimes

10:20
Comment From William
How does the MLBPA represent both players who want the game clean(er), while advocating for those who will be (potentially) suspended? Do the latter retain their own lawyers; must they?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know about the actual process but the MLBPA isn’t about getting cheaters off free; it’s about making sure they get a fair process

10:21
Comment From Danny
Is Jean Segura as bad a defender as metrics suggest? UZR, RngR, and RZR all have him among the lowest among shortstops?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Career 1,184 innings, -1 DRS, -7 UZR. That seems about right

10:21
Comment From zack
Matt Adams has a higher WAR than prince Fielder. Just saying

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of people have a higher WAR than 0.8

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros don’t

10:22
Comment From Anon21
Would you rather that your favorite team: (a) was consistently competitive, almost always reaching the postseason, but rarely winning the World Series (e.g., on average one championship every 30 years), or (b) was occasionally competitive (e.g., average of one postseason berth every five seasons) but more frequently won the World Series (e.g., average of one championship in 10 seasons)?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Looking back, the latter would be preferable, but because you can’t see these patterns coming, I’d prefer the former

10:24
Comment From Jeff
See, I don’t get this. If you don’t like the home run derby or the All Star game, fine. But how is it insane? I like baseball. Tonight some (but not all) of the best baseball players in the world will get together to play baseball (actual baseball – its not the Pro Bowl). Why am I insane for watching?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: It was a joke. But it’s all about individual taste, and having been forced to watch the Home Run Derby for three years in a row, I was thrilled to be able to choose to skip it of my own volition

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: People are free to be fans in their own way and in my way I don’t give a hoot about these events

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t mean anything about you

10:25
Comment From Thomas
This chat is just an endless series of deflecting questions with non answers…thanks!

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: No it’s not

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: People always say that but people are always exaggerating

10:26
Comment From U.L. Washingtons toothpick
Not sure if it’s because the other chatters (well, mostly Eno) set the bar so high, but your responses, speed, usefulness leave a lot to be desired…you know, for a free chat and all

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I apologize for logging you in :(

10:26
Comment From Rick
Why does everyone love Anthony Rizzo so much? Ranking for 1st base ROS has Rizzo as the #8 1B. He only hit for power in April and he hasn’t hit for average all year. Seems like just a guy.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Hot start, Triple-A insanity, favorite of a favorite front office. So there’s your explanation, but he doesn’t seem like an elite player to me

10:27
Comment From my jays are red
more ROS: machado 2B or davis HR?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: oh god

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: um Davis!

10:28
Comment From zack
Man, how desperate are the giants if they are going to play Francoeur?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: That desperate

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Exactly that desperate.

10:28
Comment From Phil
Have you seen the Matt Harvey bit on Jimmy Fallon? I found it quite humorous

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Written by this guy: https://twitter.com/mikedicenzo

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Great idea, well executed

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: DiCenzo is a friend of the baseball blogosphere!

10:29
Comment From Guest
Josh Hamilton seems to be hitting the ball much better of late. Would you be shocked if he has a .900 OPS the rest of the way?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be shocked if Hamilton has a .900 OPS, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a .600 OPS. Can’t think of a player in baseball with bigger error bars

10:30
Comment From TeePee
where would you rank Ms rotation? entire pitching staff?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Middle of the pack, maybe around 12 or so

10:31
Comment From Crazy Pants
why all the hate on the allstar game. Bit dramatic dont you think?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: You guys don’t let me have any fun at all

10:31
Comment From TYBT
Seems Trout’s regression has been pretty rough this year

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: “No way I’m going to repeat that BABIP. I better just cut down on my strikeouts like it’s nothing.”

10:32
Comment From my jays are red
John Rocker said the other day that baseball is muhc less exciting now than it was during the steroid era, because less home runs/100mph fastballs/Barry Bonds. regardless of morality issues, do you think the steroid era was good for Major League Baseball?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s impossible to say just because we don’t know what baseball would’ve been like without the PEDs, but I don’t think baseball is doing poorly now so in that regard I think the ends might justify the means

10:33
Comment From Jack Z
Can the M’s trade for Stanton without Walker being the headliner?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, yeah, but he’d be piece #1

10:33
Comment From Nick
Odds the Nationals sneak into the playoffs?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: High enough to believe in, low enough to be pretty damn unlikely

10:33
Comment From Mt Baker-ham
You call your mom…who hangs up first?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Me, because eventually I’m going to have shit to do

10:34
Comment From Tom
Who are your LCS teams at the break?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Detroit and St Louis

10:34
Comment From person
Given MLB’s history of collusion, do not disregard the possibility that there is an informal trade-freeze in effect for potential Biogenesis suspendees…

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s an agreed-to trade freeze, but I think teams are unanimously unwilling to take a risk when they don’t know what’s going to happen

10:35
Comment From McExpos
If the Rangers call up Manny Ramirez, will you write a Fangraphs piece revisiting the Alex Rodriguez/Manny Ramirez trade that DIDN’T happen? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/6935544

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like more of an offseason thing

10:36
Comment From Boxing Bears
where did the “can’t miss hitter Dustin Ackley” go?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: How about can’t-miss hitter Delmon Young?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley had a flaw revealed. He hasn’t fixed it

10:36
Comment From Jdub
Yes, Porcello’s overall numbers are still compelling, but in the starts where he has gotten hit around, could that be related to regression regarding his arm slot or just a bad outing? is there a way someone could check that?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Way bigger believer in the overall trends than in the littler-window outcomes. Game-to-game inconsistency happens and sometimes good pitchers get drilled

10:37
Comment From NWade
What do _you_ think is the most likely outcome for the players involved in the BioGenesis scandal? Think the Union can prevent them from serving long suspensions via defense/appeal?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of them get suspended, with just a few maybe getting off due to insufficient evidence

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: But there’s probably a lot of proof in there, and MLB badly wants to make a statement

10:38
Comment From Neil
Who’s your favorite baseball writer who doesn’t work for Fangraphs?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Sam Miller

10:38
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
any way that we could have predicted Prince Fielder’s contact gains from last season would regress while David Ortiz’s have stuck?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: There were probably some indicators somewhere, but I don’t think we could’ve seen them and known what they were

10:40
Comment From NWade
Of the advanced metrics now in-use (at least semi-commonly), which one do you think still needs the most development/refinement (UZR, cERA, etc)?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: cERA, because cERA isn’t good and there’s a lot we don’t know yet about how catchers impact the pitching staff and the game

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Framing is only one part of it. How about game-calling? How can we measure game-calling?

10:41
Comment From Buuuuut?
This is a sassier Jeff Sullivan than I’ve seen before…

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: True colors!

10:43
Comment From Jason
In their prime: Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, batting only?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t possibly go wrong with either. Very similar primes. Almost identical. Virtually unanswerable question, but I’ll take Pujols for the sake of visual beauty

10:44
Comment From Jody
If Jesus Montero is suspended, can he serve his suspension in minor leagues or does it have to be major leagues?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Believe he could serve in the minors?

10:45
Comment From Madison
So what are you going to do tonight instead of watching ASG?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Rock climb

10:45
Comment From Josh
It doesn’t seem like anyone is very concerned about Justin Verlander’s sub-Verlander season thus far. Thoughts on him before and after his performance Sunday?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of people are concerned, but I think the statistical instinct is to try to reduce that concern by pointing out that his peripherals remain outstanding

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: so there could be something wrong, and Verlander probably isn’t at 100%, but there’s a lot of promise still in there, and we know enough about the numbers to know what’s more meaningful and what’s less

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Verlander does have his worst xFIP- since 2008. He’s dropped from being amazing to being really good, and what’s most important is he’s still really good

10:48
Comment From bdhudson
Speaking as a Ranger fan who would have loved to have home field in the WS, the ASG hate is so very well deserved.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone’s got a reason!

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: A reason to hate!

10:49
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
How do you see the Dbacks rotation shaping up after the deadline?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: The way it’s been lately, because of Cahill’s injury, but I think the Diamondbacks add a decent starting pitcher pretty soon

10:49
Comment From SMC
What ONE change would you make to the M’s to make them a contender? And it doesn’t have to be a personnel move.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: If it were just that easy, I’d hire a new and smarter front office

10:50
Comment From atoms
I agree with you that the All-Star Game is kind of dumb. The HR Derby, on the other hand, is just self-awarely ridiculous enough to be quite entertaining. It doesn’t take itself too seriously, and who doesn’t like dingers? One of the FG writers (Dave or Dan maybe?) said he’d like to see a bigger skills competition to the All-Star festivities, and I would give that idea a hearty endorsement.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I almost wrote yesterday about a skills-competition idea, but then I saw that Grantland ran a similar piece earlier in the morning

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I love the idea of a skills competition, although you could never have, say, “fastest throw,” because teams won’t allow it

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: But imagine, I don’t know, a “command” competition, where you have targets set up around corners of the strike zone, and pitchers have to hit them while exceeding, say, 85 miles per hour

10:51
Comment From Phil
Wouldn’t it be weird if the Nationals finish the year at around/at .500? If so, that means that they were hovering at around .500 for the entire season

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t been more than 2 games under .500, haven’t been more than 5 games over .500

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what season in MLB history has had the least fluctuation around .500

10:52
Comment From atoms
Detroit and St. Louis, how boring and depressing.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: yeah sorry :(

10:52
Comment From Tim A
Weiner just said no suspensions in 2013 from Biogenisis.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: appeals take a long time, but suspensions are probably still coming

10:53
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
how about can’t miss hitter jesus montero?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: ugh

10:53
Comment From NWade
(I’d say Ackley revealed a flaw in Umpires and has been stubborn about adjusting to covering THEIR zone)

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Not that simple — other lefties have to deal with the lefty strike, too, and they don’t have the same problems with it

10:53
Comment From Jack Z
What would a non-Walker Stanton package look like? I’d appreciate you also not including Felix, Seager, Miller or Franklin. Good luck!!

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: And that’s how you trade for Mike Stanton, retired reliever

10:54
Comment From Bucky
Detroit offers the Rangers Nick Castellanos for Joe Nathantrade. Rangers know Soria and others could step in in his place at a minimal cost to the Rangers future success. If you’re JD, would you do it if you could hypothetically receive 0 public backlash?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I’d do it and then I’d move prospects for help at more important positions

10:54
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
coffee or tea?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Coffee, black

10:55
Comment From Bkgeneral
Think Danny Espinosa regrets not having surgery on his shoulder?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Wrist, right? And yeah, probably

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Wait, he didn’t need surgery

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: But he probably should’ve rested, in retrospect

10:56
Comment From Preston
Isn’t there something encourageing that of the 20 players implicated in biogenisis, 4 were caught by testing (Colon, Grandal, Cabrera and sort of Braun). I think anyone who is looking at it rationally would think that 20% being caught by testing would be a good result, and a strong deterrent.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Scientifically, it’s a pretty good result, probably, but MLB thinks the public wants much better rates of punishment, or something

10:57
Comment From Izzy
What is the chance that David Wright (49.2 WAR) ends his career with more WAR than Derek Jeter (74.6 WAR)?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe about 50/50

10:58
Comment From andrew
what’s the projection for mike zunino long term?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I keep thinkiing JP Arencibia

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: with better defense

10:58
Comment From Norm Charlton
Is Felix’s increased HR/FB rate simply a result of Safeco moving the fences in, or something I should be concerned about?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: He has a 10.3%, and a career 10.2%. Difference between this year and 2011 is one home run. It’s almost certainly nothing

10:59
Comment From Josh
Most likely to be wearing Mariner teal next year: Stanton, Ellsbury, or Lincecum?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Lincecum

10:59
Comment From Boxing Bears
This is still going? Nice work Jeff. What’s your favorite bar in PDX?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Bailey’s!

10:59
Comment From Tom
Stanton’s going to Pittsburgh eventually, right?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, but they’ll be involved

11:00
Comment From Mark
Bouldering, trad, or sport?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Bouldering. currently addicted

11:00
Comment From Bob
What do the Rangers need another 3rd baseman prospect for?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Flippin’

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Also Castellanos is an outfielder now

11:00
Comment From NWade
What single aspect of the game do you find most fascinating/interesting?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Situation-specific pitch selection

11:01
Comment From Tim
Felix for Giancarlo, who has too throw in prospects too make it fair?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners. Felix is extremely valuable,but he’s also paid like it, and value is basically skill – salary

11:01
Comment From Jay
Dan Duquette seems to get a fair amount of credit for the O’s and yet after a year and a half, there are very players on the team that he acquired that are above replacement level – McClouth, Chen, Gonzalez are about it. Would the O’s be in a much different place if Angelos had given McPhail 1 more year?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think Duquette got too much credit for the team he basically inherited but he navigated the situation pretty well and praising Duquette, ultimately, is harmless

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just say the Orioles are ina better situation than we figured they’d be when Duquette was hired after those laughable circumstances

11:03
Comment From Andy
The Braves have a “hot” 3rd baseman in Chris Johnson right now. He is hitting around .330, but most honest observers would say that is unlikely to continue. My point is, when that collapses, you will be left with a terrible defensive 3rd baseman with average offensive skills. Am I crazy to think that the Braves should make a deal for an older, more steady glove like Placido Polanco and just gamble that he can stay somewhat healthy for 2-3 months? Polanco would be average offensively, but if he is healthy would provide value defensively, which may be more important from that position for a team like the Braves. Thoughts?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Polanco has a WAR of -0.2

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves should definitely be interested in adding infield depth, but Polanco isn’t the answer to that

11:04
Comment From DNA
How much longer does the magical mystery Jeff Locke train last?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Not much, I’m afraid

11:04
Comment From person
Jurickson Profar rocking the 76 wRC+. Is he still untouchable?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Just about, yeah

11:05
Comment From Kate
Why are people talking about Michael Young?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: His hitting is better! And he’s probably available!

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: All right, that’s two hours. I really ought to get going

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming by and tolerating this, and I apologize for what I didn’t get to. Busy queue! We’ll do it again next Tuesday somewhere around 9am Pacific, and until then, be the best you can be, or close to it




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

8 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/16/13”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Jobu says:

    Do you think Garza is enough of an upgrade over alternative deadline-pitchers like Lincecum, J Johnson, or Hughes to meet the Cubs’ high demands for him?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Clint says:

    2nd half line for Harper… the best you can do is “Good”

    I used to come to this site for better analysis than I could provide.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Clint says:

    You don’t have to answer questions exactly like Dave Cameron. Come up with your own schtick.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. eddiegaedel says:

    That’s awesome you are a big fan of Sam Miller. I listen to Effectively Wild and I have thought before that you would probably sound like he does, haha. I am a fan of both of your writing and am not surprised at all to hear this.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *