Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/2/13

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hello, you all!

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: I just had a lovely time-consuming error regarding coveritlive console something something!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a very good memory of errors! Let’s chat about baseball now for a while.

9:04
Comment From MBM
Would you rather have Doug Fister or Matt Moore ROS? Is it close?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Fister and it isn’t close because I don’t and can’t trust Matt Moore

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Moore is making some strides, I haven’t checked lately, but his control problems freak me out

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Make strides, or take strides? This one always confuses me. You’d think I’d look it up on the internet.

9:05
Comment From Arquimedes Bozo
stock us with provisions!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: here are beans?

9:05
Comment From bdhudson
Does Chris Davis have a top-5 pretty swing?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Answering completely subjectively with incomplete information: yes he does

9:06
Comment From Jason
How lucky is Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik to have missed on acquiring Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: While we can’t know what Hamilton or Upton would be doing with Seattle: very lucky. Well, at least with regard to the former — the latter’s still all right. But Hamilton would’ve been a catastrophe.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, a number of people sort of saw this coming from Hamilton and this is precisely why he was considered such an unusual risk.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: It kinds of reminds me of when the Giants beat the Mariners’ six-year, nine-figure free-agent offer for Barry Zito

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: “The Mariners need to make a splash!” Sometimes you try to cannonball in water too shallow.

9:08
Comment From Simon
When the Cards need a “real” number 5 pitcher (to replace Kelly) they have to bring up Carlos Martinez (vs Wacha who doesn’t have near the innings history), right? They’re stretching him out and he’s looking great. Do you think he performs better than Erasmo in the show?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Martinez is probably the guy although it’d be interesting to examine any potential innings limits down the stretch since he threw just 104 frames last season. Erasmo, last year, was quite good, and I’m usually pretty conservative with projecting prospects over proven big-league success, but that level of performance for Martinez is achievable

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: If you mean Erasmo this year, maybe lean Martinez just because of Erasmo’s elbow injury

9:11
Comment From JonnyD
Lackey a better then average pitcher again?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: no other way around it

9:12
Comment From GSon
Paula Deen you’re not..

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Why thank you!

9:12
Comment From Erik
How many days until Eric Wedge is fired?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: How many days until the end of the regular season? Possibly then

9:12
Comment From bdhudson
Are the Brewers just going to sit around and suck in the hopes that Hart/Gammell come back next year and fill in the impossibly black hole?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Well they grabbed Juan Francisco, who at least has one skill worthy of note. So he’ll probably slug .430 while OBPing .260. I’d prefer to see them take a flier on someone less known but if you consider that the odds are that such a gamble wouldn’t work out, I guess in that light there’s little lost

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I just can’t imagine what it’s like to give that much time at first base to Yuniesky Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Well I can but I don’t like to

9:14
Comment From Harry
What is your opinion of Robbie Erlin? Does he have the talent to stay in the Padres rotation the reat of the year?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I sure think so

9:14
Comment From Dustin
What are your thoughts on David Price coming back tonight? Return to form? Someone offered him to me for Headley and Altuve in a league that counts IP.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: He is probably going to be good

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: **BREAKING NEWS**

9:15
Comment From Das Otter
Is Kluber going to be in the big leagues long enough to establish an annual “Domestic Abuse Showdown” AKA Kluber vs. Fister?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: they probably won’t call it that

9:15
Comment From Justin
So if you’re a GM and you have an expensive old mediocre relief pitcher you’re looking to unload, do you call Ned Colletti right away, or do you wait for him to inevitably contact you?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: probably send him a telegram

9:16
Comment From Daniel
Bring me down please. I’m getting too excited about Taijuan Walker. It will be less painful if I’m brought down now. Thanks

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Walker is a young hard-throwing pitching prospect not unlike Ryan Anderson!

9:18
Comment From Beard of Reddick
Nick Castellanos. Is he the #1 position prospect in baseball now?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Are you excluding guys who just recently graduated to the majors?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Even if so, no

9:19
Comment From Barry
If Gallardo barfs on your fantasy team but no one is around when it happens, does it still smell?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t know

9:19
Comment From kyle
What do you think CarGo’s 2nd half look slike

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: a lot like what ZiPS and Steamer say

9:21
Comment From Conor
Top 3 teams where Giancarlo Stanton lands next season?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Rangers, Mariners…Tigers?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: But almost everybody will be involved and you can’t predict when one GM will just go insane with his offer

9:22
Comment From Thank God Hes Back
I’ve missed Bryce Harper.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Might want to get used to this

9:22
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
What’s up with Corey Kluber? Should I be worried?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Because he gave up a lot of hits in one start?

9:24
Comment From Gabe
Hey Jeff, thanks for taking the time to chat! What do you think the Mets could get back for Bobby Parnell in a trade? (Amazin’ Avenue suggests Castellanos, JBJ, or Bogaerts, which would be incredible…)

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, not that

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Parnell is a fine relief pitcher. That’s not bringing back a top prospect

9:25
Comment From Caliban
Yasiel Puig. What is his DEAL?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: 7/$42 million with an arbitration opt-in yuk yuk yuk

9:25
Comment From George
Somebody offered me Wil Myers and Billy Butler for Chris Davis. Is that the worst trade offer you’ve ever heard?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: No. Have you ever looked at message boards?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: That’s like not even close to the worst trade offer I’ve ever heard

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: In the movie Thunderheart Val Kilmer gives up his Ray Bans for a small rock

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: That’s so stupid!!

9:26
Comment From Guest
Kennedy or Kluber ROS?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: The one who’s been good

9:27
Comment From Trent
You think big Bart Colon keeps it rolling the rest of the year?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Why wouldn’t he?

9:27
Comment From Nick O
If you were the GM of the Mariners or another non-contending team, what FA strategy would you pursue?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: A limited one prioritizing short-term contracts to starting pitchers

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Basically, short-term contracts

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Seldom would I be convinced that I need to make a huge splash for a could-be superstar

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Prince Fielder has been worth 0.7 WAR

9:28
Comment From jon
Mets broadcasters last night said they expected the Mets to use Matt Harvey like Justin Verlander, high volume and tons of complete games. Thoughts on his career track?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Successful and occasionally interrupted. Harvey is one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball, that much is undeniable, but you just have to plan on his getting injured at some point. You hope that it’s an elbow instead of a shoulder

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: If the Mets see him as a workhorse, I’m going to defer to their judgment

9:29
Comment From Billy
You’ve frequently mentioned you think Zoilo Almonte won’t be very good. Can you please explain why?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Uninteresting in the minor leagues. Career .766 OPS, no standout skill. That’s basically it

9:31
Comment From GSon
When does Seattle stop the charade, clean house and bring up the Taijuan’s, Danny’s and others…while getting rid of Wedge/JZ?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Walker next year — going to reach his innings limit this year and he’s not on the 40-man roster. Hultzen, pretty soon, if his rehab continues smoothly. Ramirez, soon, Paxton when he earns it. Wedge/Zduriencik could go away in October but we’ll see how the team finishes over the next 3 months

9:32
Comment From Dan
Rickie Weeks ROS?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: what his player page says

9:32
Comment From Guest
Jason Kipnis was all-world for the first few months last year, then turned into a pumpkin in the second half. Gonna have a repeat this year?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: His best month last year had an .810 OPS?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: He should step back some but he’s looking like a real impact talent at this point

9:34
Comment From Jeff
The Projected Standings page predicts both the White Sox and the Royals to be better than the Indians ROS. Seems a little harsh on the Indians, right?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: The Indians haven’t been much better than the Royals to this point

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: They’re both basically .500 baseball teams, with the Indians enjoying a Kipnis breakout

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: You can bump the Indians up a notch if you feel like it but they’re not meaningfully different

9:37
Comment From Joe
given hanley and adrian’s (somewhat) return to previous elite levels, would you bet on matt kemp returning to MVP levels again once his shoulder injury completely heals? both hanley and adrian had surgeries on their opposite shoulder like kemp..

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not having another 8-WAR season but he can get back to slugging .500 I imagine

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Adrian Gonzalez has the same numbers he posted a year ago

9:39
Comment From GSon
Bigger surprise.. NYY’s in fourth place.. Cleveland in first place coming to the Fourth of July?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Cleveland. Didn’t think there’d be a competition in that division but here we are. The Yankees make plenty of sense

9:40
Comment From Baker
I wouldn’t call Jack Z lucky. I have a few other expletives I’d throw out there first.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: maybe some words that rhyme with lucky

9:40
Comment From Harry
Thought it was interesting & actually kind of refreshing on how J. Zimm admitted after yesterday’s game that after he was spotted with a 8-0 lead, he kind of just “pitched to contact” essentially so he could try to get quick outs & get the hell out of there. Thoughts?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Runs contrary to what Brandon McCarthy has said in the past about pitching to the score. Every pitcher will be different in approach and I’ll have to read a little more about Zimmermann’s outing. Pitchers have the wrong idea about pitching to contact, because it doesn’t actually make you more efficient, but it can seem like it does when it’s going well and just because it isn’t the reality doesn’t mean people won’t still try it

9:42
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Is there anything Nick Castellanos can do to make the Tigers call him up?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Andy Dirks has a 1.3 WAR, between Jackson’s 1.6 and Fielder’s 0.7. Castellanos doesn’t have much of a spot, really. But he’ll be up if he keeps hitting

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Of course, Dirks’ UZR is probably something of a mirage, but so is his low offense

9:43
Comment From fats
how many relievers have struck out hunter/cabrera/fielder in a row this year?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, some

9:43
Comment From Guest
Best guess on the Pirates record at the end of the season.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: 93-69

9:44
Comment From SomeDude
What do you think is behind the Pirates

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: the Cardinals

9:44
Comment From Brandon
What would you do with Gausman? The O’s don’t seem to have a plan. After he struggled and was sent to Triple-AAA, they brought him back as an extra arm in the pen. Now after a great outing he’s expected to be banished again. I hate the yo-yoing.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I let him pitch in Triple-A for a bit while I target a starter on the trade market

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I might use Gausman as a reliever down the stretch to use his arm but limit his innings

9:47
Comment From bdhudson
Which team makes the playoffs sooner: Astros, Marlins, or ChiSox?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Marlins

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: haha THEY’RE WORKING OUT

9:47
Comment From Nate
Do you think Zack Wheeler stays in the Mets rotation the rest of the year? At least until they shut him down?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think they let him try to work through his struggles in the bigs until he hits his limit

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: If they decided there’s nothing for him in Triple-A, there’s nothing for him in Triple-A

9:49
Comment From kyle
Bundy and Gausman are going to contribute at some point, but the Os should absolutely be spenders on pitching this offseason, right? Their window looks like it is now and the immediate future

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Well in that they’re not rebuilding, sure, but it’s not like the Orioles are working with a short-term, closing window. They’re in a good spot for a while. Machado, Davis, Wieters, Jones…they should add pitching, but the Orioles’ situation isnt’ desperate.

9:50
Comment From Bo
Will/should Chris Johnson finish the season as the starting 3B in Atlanta?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:50
Comment From Rated Rookie
A September call-up question: do players getting their cup of coffee have to be on or added to the 40-man roster? I am wondering how much truthiness there is to Terry Ryan’s recent comments on Sano maybe, possibly coming up in September?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: need to be on the roster

9:51
Comment From Timothy
Is Simmons the best fielding SS in baseball?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably

9:52
9:53
Comment From Mr. T
While it might not be the “traditional/purist” thing to do, Puig in the All-Star game would generate some buzz and excitement, yes? What percent chance to you give it happening?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: It would be a good thing for the fans and maybe less of a good thing for the players, who wouldn’t want such an honor to be bestowed upon such a new talent. So that’s where you prioritize. But ultimately it won’t make much of a difference either way and the debate will be forgotten in time for the next one

9:55
Comment From Blueberry
Kevin Towers is awful. At least, so I hear at Fangraphs. (Not the writers, mostly the commenters.) As a casual NL follower, I thought he was a pretty good GM, both at San Diego and Arizona. What gives?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a numbers-GM, so he’ll make some moves that disagree with sabermetric ideas, and then you’ll hear about them at places like FanGraphs. We don’t know how to evaluate GMs objectively and accurately and Towers is probably somewhere toward the bottom of the middle third

9:56
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
When a pitcher is said to have a ceiling as a 2 or is considered a solid 3, what type of rotation is that based off of? A championship one? league average? Also could you give me examples of a 1-5 so I have a basis of comparison when the prospect guys talk?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: If a pitcher is said to have a number-2 ceiling, what they mean is that the pitcher should be good without being a real shutdown ace like a Verlander or a Kershaw or whatever. Probably not dominant. If a number 3, I’m guessing the guy doesn’t have tremendous strikeout ability. It’s kind of arbitrary and people don’t have a good understanding of how the slots actually play out in real life

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try something off the top of my head

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: 1: Verlander

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: 2: Fister?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: 3: …Leake

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: 4: Vargas

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: 5: Marquis

9:59
Comment From Marcus A.
Tyler Kelly seems not awful, especially considering Thames was DFA’d and the Mariners had little to no leverage, no?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: well Eric Thames is also not awful

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: and Kelly, I think, will have to end up on a 40-man roster soon, or else he’ll be exposed

10:01
Comment From JB
You’re hired as the Mariners new GM. What do you do?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Prepare to trade Michael Morse, work on signing Kyle Seager to a long-term extension

10:02
Comment From Bo
Why oh why would the Braves have any interest in Joba?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Thin bullpen and he is not bad

10:02
Comment From Caliban
The NL West is a complete mess. Got any gut feelings about how it’s gonna shake out?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Diamondbacks take it in the last week

10:02
Comment From Dan
If you ever answer a single one of my questions I will be amazed

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Should’ve asked a question

10:03
Comment From Prich
If you could view any volcanic eruption in history (from a safe distance, of course), which would you chose to watch?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Personally, Mazama

10:03
Comment From Bert
Seems the floor on George Springer is Chris YOung. Thats pretty good. Do you think we see him in Houston before September?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: No prospect in baseball has a “floor” of a decent major leaguer

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: But, yeah, I think the Astros at least get a glimpse

10:04
Comment From Wobbles
what do you think are the Rangers’ plans for Soria? he was second only to Mo for so long, and he’s looked great in his rehab.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Setup to protect against Scheppers’ fairly inevitable regression

10:05
Comment From False Gepetto
Jeff Loria just sent you an email. You are his new Marlins GM. What price do you set for yogurt cups and Cuban sandwiches?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Whatever the guy in charge of that recommends

10:06
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Are the Mets currently hurting Wheeler’s development? I’m starting to get a weird Bauer vibe with how they’re handling him. Not letting him lean on his fastball and calling breaking balls that he can’t get over. Should they send him back to AAA? Make him pitch out of the stretch all game? It looks like he really needs to build up some confidence.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to do some more reading buti t would work against Wheeler in the long term if he learned to just depend on his fastball. That’s the opposite of a young pitcher’s optimal approach. You need to learn secondary pitch consistency and you need to develop confidence to throw those pitches in any count

10:07
Comment From Guest
The international signing period already started and the Rangers paid for the Marlins pool. The Rangers then proceeded to spend first round type money on 2 players. I hate the Marlines

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins are better at this than people want to give them credit for

10:08
Comment From Blueberry
Re the Eric Wedge getting fired question: You make a whole fanbase sad.

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s the Mariners

10:08
Comment From GSon
T or F: Best 2B in MLB not named Cano = Jason Kipnis

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I like Matt Carpenter

10:09
Comment From Dan
Is Soler the next Puig?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: probably not

10:10
Comment From East Coast Ms Fan
Are Andy Pettite’s days of being a useful pitcher over?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: He’s exactly what he was in 2010

10:10
Comment From J
True or False: Dominic Brown has become Alfonso Soriano?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: False, literally

10:12
Comment From LarryA
Please sttle this argument I am having (with myself). Is Castro pissed or overjoyed with the success of Puig?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: smirky

10:12
Comment From Brew Crew Fan
Of the players listed as available for the brewers, does anyone carry more value than Aoki? I mean he’s cheap, good, and has another year and half on his contract. Why not sell him now to try and maximize value?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not that good. He’s not going to bring back a haul. They’re free to try to trade him, but Norichika Aoki isn’t re-stocking a farm system

10:14
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Best chances of winning:
Jeff Sullivan vs. David Eckstein in hand to hand combat
Jeff Sullivan vs. Rich Garces in a hot dog eating contest
Jeff Sullivan vs. Wade Boggs in a beer drinking contest

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: the baseball players

10:14
Comment From matt w
Seems like if you’re going into too shallow water the cannonball is the way to go. Definitely don’t want an elegant headfirst dive.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t jump into shallow water

10:15
Comment From McGee
Generally things always seem better in the past than the present. Why is that?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: We forget about a lot of the crap

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: In all things. Analyze previous personal relationships. How do you feel about them now? Why did they end?

10:17
Comment From Jeff
Are you surprised that we don’t see teams try harder to move back contracts as functionally an added tax when trying to rebuild? In the most extreme example, if a team called about Mike Trout, couldn’t you ask for basically all of their best prospects in exchange for Trout and taking on Hamilton? I can’t think of any real precedent for that, and it could give some smaller payroll teams greater opportunities to be flexible.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Including a Hamilton subtracts from the value of the package, meaning you get less back. Everything is about money, right? Money is money. Players are converted to money values. You trade something worth $X for stuff worth $X. In this example, you’re taking Hamilton salary relief instead of extra prospect(s). It’s just different value being added, but you can’t just throw Hamilton on top of the heap and expect the other team to pay the same as it would just for Trout alone

10:18
Comment From bdhudson
Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Bogaerts. Which of the three find himself on another team in the not terribly distant future?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s go with Middlebrooks

10:19
Comment From Tom
Should the Cardinals worry about the Pirates?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals should worry about themselves, but they should be aware of the Pirates

10:19
Comment From Kevin
Who’s the first trade domino to fall? Crain? Gallardo? Bud Norris?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Nolasco

10:20
Comment From Byron Buxton
How disappointed will Twins fans be when they realize I’m not the second coming of Trout?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: not very much

10:20
Comment From Anon21
Everyone seems to be in agreement that the Cards need to dump Kozma, and yet he’s hitting almost the same as Andrelton Simmons, whom no one seems to consider anything other than a major-league starter. I guess having the best glove in baseball matters?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: a little bit, yeah

10:22
Comment From Ma
What is the longest a team has gone without making the playoffs in the wild card era? Mariners have to be coming for the record soon!

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals havent’ made the playoffs since 1985

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates are going to go for the first time since 1992, Blue Jays haven’t made it since 1993

10:23
Comment From Bubba
Who will be better in five years, Harper or Trout?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Trout

10:23
Comment From Guest
Jeff, do you have any reports on Michael Ynoa

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I sure don’t!

10:23
Comment From _David_
Will computers/math figure out an “optimal” pitching motion based on body measurements?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Not for everyone to use. Every body is different

10:23
Comment From Mo
Who is more likely to turn it around: Pooholes or Shamilton

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Pujols

10:24
Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Darvish the favorite for AL Cy Young?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: As sad as it is, right now writesr would have a hard time ignoring Max Scherzer’s 12-0

10:25
Comment From Dam
Did you see Morosi pick Pedroia as the MVP for the 1st half? I found that one quite funny.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Stupid

10:25
Comment From Guest
is Nick Franklin saving Jack Z’s job or is 1 out of 4 prospects too little too late?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: That job will not be saved by one guy

10:26
Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Who are the 5 full time FG writers?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Dave, Eno, Carson, Paul, myself

10:26
Comment From Piccamo
On a scale of 1 to 10 how real is Manny Machado?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: 9

10:27
Comment From Not Dan Weaver
What’s the word on Ryan Braun? Bad nerves are scary.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Should be back soon, Brewers in no position to hurry

10:27
Comment From Marcus A.
Do the Mariners chances of getting Stanton increase or decrease if Jack Z leaves?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t say without knowing Zduriencik’s potential replacement but I think Z would make an aggressive bid depending on how things shake out with the young players down the stretch

10:28
Comment From Nate
What do you think of Wheeler’s struggles? Natural growing pains as he jumps to the next level? Are you confident he figures it out long term?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I’m never confident in any young pitching prospect and Wheeler had some command issues in the minors. I”m not going to get too concerned after just a few games. I’ll be very interested in his July

10:30
Comment From Brew Crew Fan
Why is it that the Brewers just can not develop any sort of decent pitching? The only true #1 type pitcher that I can recall them developing in the last 20 years is Ben Sheets. Gallardo is clearly a middle tier #2 if that. So do you fire the Minor league pitching coaches, draft scouts, or Doug Melvin?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Marco Estrada is interesting?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know much about the Brewers’ player development system but they’re not the only team to struggle with pitchers making the leap. They’ve had better luck with position players. Worth considering how much front office turnover there’s been in the last handful of years

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: But, what the hell, fire some people, shake it up in there

10:32
Comment From Dustin Pedroia
MLB At-Bat was just updated for Android phones. Now we can watch the majesty of the Home Run Derby on screens small enough to fit in the palms of our hands!

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder why I accepted this into the chat from the queue

10:33
Comment From Guest
If you were Terry Ryan, do you shop Perkins or hold onto him to avoid losing fanbase and hope to compete in 2014. Seems like team more likely will be below average in 2014 without starting pitching help.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: If I’m a GM I don’t make any decisions because of how the fans will respond. The fans always always always respond most strongly to winning. Perkins is a 30-year-old reliever on a not-good team. I don’t give him away but I’d actively scour the market

10:35
Comment From JonnyD
Name a player who is already pretty great yet you still see more potential?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Go-to answer used to be Adrian Beltre. Yoenis Cespedes? Too easy?

10:35
Comment From Daniel
Do you see the Mariners targeting Choo this offseason?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:36
Comment From Nick C
Who’s your pick for the next guy to crush a 500 foot homer? Gotta be Chris Davis, right?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I’d take field over Davis. Lots of guys have tremendous raw physical strength and they just need to run into one baseball

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: It’s like how Wladimir Balentien hit that moonshot a few years ago. Why him? He was strong and he had a chance

10:36
Comment From Chris Davis
I’m not a chump anymore, but how good am I really?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Very good, not this good

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: better-than-Prince-Fielder good!

10:37
Comment From G Money
Gerritt Cole, is his ceiling a #1? If so, how long will it take for him to get there?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Assume Cole won’t be an ace, be thrilled if he does manage to get there

10:37
Comment From BRL
When will pitchers start to figure out Yasiel Puig’s weaknesses? Obviously he cannot sustain his current pace. On the other hand I watched him play on TV this past weekend and he was hitting everything.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: He has the same contact rate as Jay Bruce. He doesn’t hit everything — he just swings a lot and hits most things. He’s going to start hitting himself into more outs, and there’s going to be two-way adjusting that’ll make for a fun three months

10:39
Comment From LudeBurger
say one thing good about Jose Fernandez, and one bad thing too please

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Very good very soon, yet up too soon for the organization’s best long-term interests

10:39
Comment From Reddickulous
Keeping score at the game: You do it? Hipper than hip, or old-fart fixation?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t do it, don’t care if others do, you should be a fan however you want

10:39
Comment From James
To the Trout/Hamilton question, isn’t the difference though that the actual value you get out of a prospect if highly unpredictable, but the lack of value out of Hamilton is predictable (or at least more predictable). Wouldn’t it be better to shed a guaranteed 75 million dollar loss of value rather than take on the possibility of 75 million dollars of value, but also the possibility of 0 dollars of value (assuming of course you can then use the 75 million to get some new value)?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: But the players wouldn’t be capped at $75 million of potential value — that’d be an average of their projections. If you acquire prospects worth an estimated $75 million, that accounts for both their upsides and downsides, with the $75 million resting neatly around the middle

10:41
Comment From Nick C
Given his earlier than expected fall from grace, do you think it’s possible that Pujols might be let go with 3 or 4 years left on his contract? He might become utterly useless by then.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Pay attention to how the Yankees are dealing with A-Rod

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Also I was going to say Pujols is doing better but then I realized he still had a sub-.800 June OPS

10:42
Comment From Sam
Who is a better defensive SS Iglesias or Simmons

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Simmons, probably

10:43
Comment From Keith
do you believe in life after love?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I believe love is life

10:43
Comment From gwbicster
I personally think Aoki is the best possible solution for the Pirates RF and #2 hitter hole. What do you think it would take to get him from the Brewers?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: one or two interesting prospects who aren’t elite prospects

10:43
Comment From vin
is there a possibilty that the pcl screwed up zach wheeler? he was a better pitcher last year and had a better breaking ball

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a possibility it had a negative effect

10:43
Comment From Guest
any news on pineda?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Throwing, feels good

10:44
Comment From Wally
Is Danny Espinosa this bad, or hurt?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: He’s lost and he’s never been further away from reclaiming his old job

10:44
Comment From Guest
Can Smoak be a decent player?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: decent, yeah

10:44
Comment From Andrew
In a Fangraphs staff softball game, who is most likely to bean another player?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Carson

10:45
Comment From Guest
Wasn’t Morosi the one who had Ibanez on his ballot last year

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t surprise me

10:45
Comment From gila monster
The Orioles just got Scott Feldman for Jake Artists, Pedro Strop, and Intl bonus slots… thoughts?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I think that means I need to get going so I can see what’s happening in baseball!

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, it’s a modest deal and I like it for both sides, and the Orioles didn’t lose a lot while making a meaningful short-term upgrade

10:47
Comment From Jesse
Why isn’t Chris Heisey playing much?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t he just hurt?

10:48
Comment From Guest
would you root for a nhl team in seattle?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I’d pay attention to them but I wouldn’t change my loyalty

10:48
Comment From Bkgeneral
Is Stanton in Seattle the equivalent of driving a Bentley and living in a trailer?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: No team in baseball is truly that far away from being competitive, except the Astros

10:48
Comment From Allow Balfour
If you could go anywhere you’ve never been, where would you go?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: New Zealand is the most achievable option, then Iceland, then Kamchatka

10:49
Comment From Michael Scarn
Would you rather have Prince Fielder or Yuniesky Betancourt as your SS? You can’t move Prince to another position

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: lol Prince

10:51
Comment From Dave
Crazy that Cole’s K rate is crap given his stuff

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s important to understand the difference between quality stuff and a hard fastball. Not that Cole doesn’t have the potential to have a strong repertoire, but right now people are mesmerized by the digits and there’s a lot more to strikeouts and pitching than that

10:52
Comment From Also Not Dan Weaver
Why does everyone hate Morse? .359 lifetime woba in nearly 2000 PA.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t play defense

10:52
Comment From Kate
Better defensive SS, Andrus or Simmons?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Simmons

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Man, lots of stuff in the queue about the Cubs/Orioles trade. Didn’t expect that to be the first domino and I suspect a popular reaction is going to overrate Arrieta because people take a while to forget about pitching prospects

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really care about Strop and I don’t really care about Clevenger. The Orioles needed a short-term rotation upgrade and that’s what they got in exchange for some fleeting glimmer of potential

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: about how this stuff works

10:55
Comment From MKW
Will either Harang or Bonderman be on the Mariners roster at the end of the season?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:55
Comment From baatin
Is Beltre still the best defensive third baseman?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Machado or Arenado

10:56
Comment From Dan
Gimme your LCS teams

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers/Cardinals

10:56
Comment From Matt
Do you think MLB will try to expand in the coming few years? Or simply relocate a team or two if need be?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anything’s going to happen

10:56
Comment From Wally
I’ve been to Iceland: big thumbs up. Go in June, though

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: missed my chance!

10:56
Comment From Allow Balfour
wow wikipedias picture of Koryaksky volcano is quite pretty

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: aahhhhhh

10:56
Comment From manny miracles
favorite bounce backs for 2nd half?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: David Price!

10:57
Comment From Guest
O’s Cubs Trade — it’s not about overrating Arrieta, isn’t it more about how *meh* Feldman is?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: He is super-meh, but meh has actual value

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Only Orioles starter with an xFIP under 4 is Gausman, and he’s got an ERA over 7. Feldman isn’t sexy at all but decent innings are decent innings

10:58
Comment From Kevin
How about those international slots going from the O’s to the Cubs in the trade? Big difference?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I dont’ know yet. I’m not yet familiar with this sort of transaction, and it matters, but I’m guessing it doesn’t really matter all that much

10:59
Comment From bdhudson
Who wins the FG full-time author cagematch?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: not Carson

10:59
Comment From Nick C
Do you think the Yankees sell? It’s the Yankees!

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: nope

10:59
Comment From Dan
Follow-up to Matt’s question…How can MLB allow Miami to have 1000 fans at a game? Is there anything MLB can do for the poor franchise / Loria-is-a-jerk?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Not much they can do but once again you can’t deny that the Marlins have al ot of organizational talent

11:00
Comment From bdhudson
Jurickson Profar is a Ranger next year. True or False?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: True

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, okay, it’s been two hours. This thing needs to end so I can move on

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming by, and I apologize for all the material I didn’t have time to address. We’ll do it again next Tuesday, at the same time, and until then, be well and be your best



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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