Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/23/13

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Hi guys!

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be with you as soon as I remove this comment spammer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-72313/

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Never trust anybody who leaves a comment on a chat before the chat

9:03
Comment From bdhudson
Do you enjoy moral grandstanding? I enjoy moral grandstanding. Let’s talk some more about why Ryan Braun is worse than Hitler.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: The coverage: already insufferable. Ryan Braun: kind of a douche. Everybody sucks.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m ready to move on and think about other things, like baseball that’s being played, but, man, Braun seems like a bit of an ass. Many players are asses, but seldom is it revealed with such splendor.

9:05
Comment From Sirras One
NL Cy Young: Harvey, Kershaw, or the field?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: If the voting happened today, it would probably be split between Harvey and Kershaw. I think I’d slightly favor Harvey. Wainwright won’t get nearly enough recognition since he’s right up there with those two. Still two months left for someone to dominate or for someone to collapse/get hurt

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: fifth in NL pitcher WAR right now is Jhoulys Chacin

9:07
Comment From STiVo
Did the Cubs got approximately the value you were expecting in return for Garza?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much right on the nose. Olt + interesting prospect + bit piece. Don’t know about PTBNL and I should hope for the Rangers’ sake it’s not much, but the Cubs got a lot for what was, to them, a little. Good position to be selling rentals you don’t hope to re-sign

9:08
Comment From Tim
Does Lincecum get Edwin Jackson money in the offseason?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: 2012 Jackson money, not 2013 Jackson money

9:09
Comment From bdhudson
PROVIDE CONTENT

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Only you can provide your own contentment

9:10
Comment From HTD
Would you rather have Nolan Arenado or Nick Franklin going forward

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Franklin, slightly, but Arenado could close the gap real quick on account of his defense

9:10
Comment From zack
Do you think the cubs are really seriously considering moving the Shark?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: No, but there’s never any harm in finding out what’s out there

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing since June 29 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jeff_samardzija/

9:11
Comment From _David_
Do more athletic and toolsy players age better than the “gritty” ones who maximize their skills, because physical talent creates more of a buffer against age and injury erosion such that they have further to fall?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I shouldn’t have accepted a question I don’t know the answer to, but this one’s more complicated. Do you mean established big-league athletes vs. established big-league gritty types? I think the latter group could balance some of that out by having demonstrated great work ethics, which could protect them against injury and decline in later years

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Probably, if you looked at the trends overall, you would see strikingly little difference. Players all age.

9:13
Comment From F U Jobu
Jon Villar, Hou. is he the next victim @ SS or can he stick?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I am decidedly not in love, but there’s no harm in experimenting because they are oh so bad

9:14
Comment From _David_
Do people in Portland root for the Seahawks? If they were, say, historically good this year, would you care at all?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Portland has a big Seahawks fan contingent. Also 49ers. I am a casual, fairweather Seahawks fan, so I would find some delight in their success, but mostly I’d be concentrating on hockey season

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: When the Seahawks were busy losing that playoff game to the Falcons(?) last winter, I was at brunch

9:15
Comment From Sirras One
Hi Jeff!

9:15
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Howdy Jeff

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: hi you guys

9:15
Comment From JayRay
How much do fan bases play into a front office’s decisions? For a fairly smart organization, the Red Sox have been obsessed with the idea of a closer for years. Could this be in part to appease a less knowledgable fan base that doesn’t understand that proven closers aren’t much of a thing?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s about appeasing players and managers

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Smart front offices don’t react to the wills and wants of uneducated sports fans. I mean a popular franchise player might get a little boost somewhere or somehow, but generally the front office will do what it thinks is best for the organization and the marketing department will try to spin it to the masses

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: And the front offices and marketing departments don’t work closely together, if together at all

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Fun little story:

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago the Mariners were hosting something like Asian-American Heritage Day or what have you at the ballpark

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: That same day, they fired Don Wakamatsu. Imagine how the PR people felt.

9:19
Comment From zack
What do you expect from AROD this year? I hear he’s back in postseason form!!!!

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll play a bit and help a bit and he’ll sit out a lot

9:19
Comment From _David_
The Mariners would need to play at a .714 clip to get to a 92 “safe zone” for the second wildcard, at which they still might miss the playoffs… Has the possibility been anywhere in the back of your mind?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: heavens no

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: they’re toast, delicious toast

9:20
Comment From _David_
Please tell me Morse won’t take playing time from Ackley and Saunders.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: A little, for a little, until the roster situation clears up after the deadline

9:20
Comment From my jays are red
Hi jeff. what do you think about the Rays’ rise? do you think they can win the AL east?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: They’re a very good team that’s mostly healthy now, and the Red Sox are a little less healthy, and absolutely the division is winnable

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Our projected standings page has the Red Sox and Rays finishing with identical records, well separated from the rest of the East

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays have Jamey Wright?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Jamey Wright has a 2.86 ERA?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Jamey Wright has a strikeout an inning?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: By the way everyone, fun fact re: Rangers and adding Garza

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Before the trade, our projected standings had them finishing at a .553 clip, with 4.19 RA/game. Now they’re finishing at a .558 clip, with 4.14 RA/game. So that’s that impact.

9:25
Comment From Bret
What are your thoughts on the hot news that is JP Arencibia leaving Twitter?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: He probably didn’t have the patience

9:25
Comment From The Oriole Bird
More likely: (A) The Mariners trade Iwakuma during the 2013 season; or (B) the Mariners make the 2013 playoffs?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: A

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: here come the jokers complaining that this is a Mariners chat

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: you are reading this chat for free of your own volition

9:26
Comment From ned
The Guerrero kid LA just signed , decent player or LA just wasting dollars?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: 7/$32 million for a Cuban infielder

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: No clue how he’s going to pan out — no one can ever know — but obviously the Dodgers have earned a little trust, and it’ll be interesting to see if this might have an effect on any potential Cano free agent negotiations

9:28
Comment From F U Jobu
Is Garza the best player to join the junior circuit this season?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: probably

9:28
Comment From Izzy
Are there any biogenesis names that aren’t public yet?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly a handful, at least

9:28
Comment From Rags
Can we get together a union of Fantasy Baseball Owners to appeal the Braun case? I thought I was going to have at least a couple more months of legal proceedings!

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I would love to have you all together in the same room, absolutely

9:29
Comment From my jays are red
Phillies are doing better than the Nationals!

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals are doing better than the Angels!

9:30
Comment From Gabe
Can you provide some clarity on how wOBA weights are determined?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: You’ll find your explanations around here http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

9:30
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
let’s be pragmatic and discuss Logan Schafer Braun’s replacement

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: god no

9:30
Comment From Joe Don
Upon reflection (24 hrs), did the Rangers over-pay for Garza?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, because I personally don’t think that much of Olt. Objectively, they paid too much for maybe an extra win + a playoff boost, but I don’t think we the fans properly appreciate the significance of that boost given the leverage of the Rangers’ spot.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a big deal, winning or not winning the division, and having a little edge come October. How big of a deal? Big enough for the Rangers to internally justify such a transaction

9:32
Comment From Dave
Any chance AA’s job is in jeopardy? Seasons been a complete bust and 3 of the main pieces in Dickey/Johnson/Burhele have been poor and we sacrificed 4 of our top 5 propects to do it. Im also worried the team will stick with Arencibia at C for the next year or too :(

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Some chance, but he’ll probably get another one

9:33
Comment From zack
As a mariners fan, I was hoping you could give a brief summary of your thoughts on AROD’s career from the beginning until today.

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: nonpareil

9:33
Comment From Chris
I know it wont be the same team but the mariners look a little better for next season right?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: With all young players, you have to wait out the adjustment periods. Franklin, for example, is now striking out a ton. Things feel positive at the moment, and there’s reason for that, but everything is positive on a winning streak and Ackley is bad and Zunino is raw. 2014 still isn’t looking like a playoff year

9:34
Comment From Rated Rookie
The chorus defending Braun by backhandedly scolding those scolding him is a major fail.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody looks bad in this. Like almost everybody

9:35
Comment From Truth
When they say “Player K has a .250 average vs fastballs this year” or whatever, is that simply his babip vs fastballs? How about the times he swings right through a fastball?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: BABIP + dingers. I hate those statistics. So much is left out, and they don’t pay any attention to the counts. Fastballs come earlier in counts.

9:36
Comment From Internet User Since 1995
Everybody sucks. But also everybody doesn’t suck. True?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Rule of thumb: you are a worse person than you think you are, and everybody else is a better person than you think they are. Not you, specifically, but yes also you, specifically.

9:36
Comment From Lost in Braun: Multiple needles.
Lost in the Braun news: a royal baby. Priorities, people.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I know I’ve cultivated a good group of Twitter follows because I only saw like 2 or 3 such tweets all of yesterday

9:37
Comment From Eddie
Is M.A. Gonzalez a number three SP? A four?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no idea right now

9:37
Comment From 2Pac
More enjoyable form of art: gif or early French impressionism?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: .gif, obviously

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: look for .gifs of early French impressionism

9:38
Comment From bdhudson
What are your thoughts on Dave’s ‘move the trade deadline’ piece?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Going to read it right after this chat. I already like the idea as a thought experiment, but he’s moving the deadline back, right? Then you’re reducing the amount of time acquired players spend with their new teams, reducing the significance of the additions, which could drive down the market. So it’s all complicated and I look forward to thinking about it further.

9:41
Comment From alex
What is going on in the Outfield in Arizona, seems like they have 4 qualified starters. Who do you project for the rest of the season there?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Should be Ross/Pollock/Parra, mixing in a little Eaton and not playing very much Kubel. But I can’t trust them to not play very much Kubel

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: That took too long for me to figure out

9:43
Comment From Newt Gingrich
What are the chances that Aaron Hicks turns into an average player?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Average? Pretty good.

9:43
Comment From Dave
Even if Grilli is injured, Pirates shouldn’t trade for a top reliever with all the depth they have, correct? Reid, Hughes, Black, even Cole

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think any team should pretty much ever try to trade for a top reliever, barring like a Mariano Rivera sort

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: But it wouldn’t be a bad idea to explore the market for second-tier sorts who can generate strikeouts, like Oliver Perez

9:44
Comment From gson
If Arod is banned for life (hypothetically) doesn’t this effectively reward the NYY’s by reducing their competitive balance tax situation?.. and when will the punishment for player indiscretion actually start punishing the owners and clubs?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Players being suspended *does* punish the owners and clubs, usually. Those people want those players to be playing.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: But then there’s the question: should clubs be punished for mistakes by individual players? Why should the Brewers have to suffer for Ryan Braun being a lying ass? Obviously there’s not really any way to punish one without punishing the other, but it’s not the Brewers who screwed up.

9:46
Comment From Truth
On a pitcher’s splits, how do you calculate IP vs left or right handed hitters?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t that just be outs/3?

9:47
Comment From BassmanUW
So the Cubs pretty clearly have the number 2 farm system in baseball now, right?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: They’re in the conversation

9:47
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Does Braun’s earlier appeal and subsequent suspension mean that players like Chris Davis will continue to get questions forever? Is there anything a player can say that fans or sportswriters will trust? Can we try dunking them in a pond to see if they drown?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: And this is precisely why clean players are mad at Braun, and other users

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Because of Braun, people won’t trust anybody. The only solution is time + steps forward in game cleanliness.

9:48
Comment From Steel City Reader
How much worse are the Pirates if Grilli is out for the remainder of 2013?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, maybe a win, but it’ll feel worse than that

9:49
Comment From Pops
The O’s have their offense, defense and pitching clicking right now. Feel confident they’ll make a decent run at the division even with the strong play of Tampa and Boston?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re worse than those teams, but obviously they could make up a little ground and the Red Sox have a few injury questions that could hold them back. O’s are in a good position

9:50
Comment From Dave
*barring no suspension* Odds of Bartolo Colon winning the AL Cy Young?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Low, with Felix doing Felix stuff and Scherzer presently being 14-1

9:51
Comment From my jays are red
do you think there’s any way the second wild card is giving too many teams a false sense of sanity? or should they NFL it and add more teams to the playoffs instead?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: It definitely lowers the point at which a team fancies itself a contender, because it takes fewer wins to qualify for the postseason. But then the fact of the matter is that anybody can win in the playoffs, so…

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: How close did last year’s Cardinals come to making the World Series?

9:53
Comment From Steel City Reader
Please provide a one-sentence overview of RA9-WAR

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: WAR based on ERA instead of FIP

9:53
Comment From greg
Think Olt gets called up soon or is he in AAA for the rest of the season?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a September promotion but he’s got Triple-A stuff to figure out

9:54
Comment From _David_
What would a fair Kyle Seager extension look like?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. One more cheap year, then three years of arbitration, then free agency

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 5/$27 million? Bump it up to $30 million? That’s just a guess on my part

9:55
Comment From Justin
Any out of the blue trades gonna happen before the deadline?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Plenty will be discussed and hinted at on rumors pages

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: If you’re asking for a prediction, well, what’s the definition of “out of the blue”?

9:56
Comment From Eddie
Re: The Garza trade, which pitcher is the ‘interesting prospect’ and which is the ‘bit piece’?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Edwards is interesting, Grimm is a bit piece with back-of-rotation value

9:56
Comment From Guest
Any Theo-Hoyer moves so far that you have not liked? Even the Edwin deal is not that bad.

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe there was a little one in there somewhat but by and large they’ve been FanGraphs-friendly

9:57
Comment From Jays fan
Will Jonathan Villar be the Astros SS in 2014?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Probably at least a lot of the time

9:57
Comment From Orange
You’re put in a room with Ryan Braun and are allowed to ask him 1 question and he must answer truthfully. What do you ask?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Have you ever looked at bestiality porn?

9:57
Comment From greg
Do you think the Cubs can turn Justin Grimm into a decent major league pitcher like they did with Travis Wood?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Grimm has a lower xFIP than Wood over 17 starts

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: He’s already a pretty decent major league pitcher

9:58
Comment From alex
What do you think of Eduardo Nunez? Would you rather have him or Stephen Drew rest of season?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Every time I try to convince myself to like Eduardo Nunez I look at his defensive statistics

9:59
Comment From Baseball Gods
We are here to grant you one wish, Jeffrey, make it count, go:

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: May Felix Hernandez never go on the 60-day disabled list

9:59
Comment From Dan
If you were a GM, how much would you push for anything the Brewers haven’t nailed down (Gomez, Segura, Lucroy I’m assuming) now that the Braun suspension has been levied?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Gomez is signed through 2016

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Lucroy is signed through 2017

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Segura’s in his first year of service

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: How much did you think this question through?

10:00
Comment From Newt Gingrich
What kind of prospect haul could the Twins get if they moved Perkins?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: not a huge one

10:01
Comment From MBM
Jurickson Profar: 15/15 player as soon as next year?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe, if he were to play every day, but this year he has a combined six steals

10:01
Comment From Prich
Favorite aspect of baseball?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Game theory

10:01
Comment From Steve
I think Zack Greinke would make a great friend.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I bet he disagrees

10:02
Comment From JonnyUtah
Are the Dbacks going to promote or trade Chris Owings? He’s killing it in Reno but blocked by Gregorius.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: He has an .880 OPS in Reno

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: 16 walks, 83 strikeouts, Reno.

10:03
Comment From JAL
Soriano trade going to happen? A little bit of the ole too little too late, it would surely seem. I guess a not so bad piece for next year taking for granted Yanks don’t decide to crap the bed this off-season.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I assume it’s going to happen soon

10:03
Comment From LostinSeattle
Should the Mariners really stay put and not trade any of their trade bait? I know they are rolling, but it’s been against sub-par teams.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Going back, took 2 of 3 from Texas and 2 of 3 from Cincinnati. Played well against Red Sox, swept Angels

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Not going to get much of anything for Ibanez. Not going to get much of anything for Morse. Might be interested in re-signing Morales after the season after extending a qualifying offer. What’s to trade?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Saunders could easily go, as could Perez

10:04
Comment From Isaac
Gabe Kapler is pretty awesome. You think he will be an important front office guy at some point?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Assistant or scout

10:05
Comment From greg
By the end of next week, Alfonso Soriano will be playing for which team?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

10:05
Comment From Rosen
Do you ever run into Stephen Malkmus in Portland?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Do you know how ordinary famous people look when they’re out in the wild?

10:06
Comment From zack
Who would you rather have for the next 5 years: Harper or McCutchen?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Oof. I think McCutchen, but only because of durability

10:07
Comment From BassmanUW
For some reason I could only imagine people in Portland rooting for a professional football team ironically.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: They already root for a soccer team and a basketball team

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: And they’re super pumped about the Ducks and Beavers

10:07
Comment From Joel
Do you think Tim McCarver has ever heard of WAR?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably been mentioned either to him or near him

10:07
Comment From Jay
If we believe Machado is an outstanding defensive at third, how much worse would have to be at short in order to consider NOT moving him? In other words, if we knew he’d just be average at short — would the O’s be better off keeping him at 3rd?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: If he were a zero defensive shortstop, then the Orioles would be better off with him at third. But he’s probably not a zero defensive shortstop

10:08
Comment From Chris
Who is your favorite hockey team?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: The Ottawa Karlssons

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Good move, Daniel Alfredsson. Your new city is bankrupt!

10:09
Comment From Bo
How would a +20 DRS right fielder translate to CF? Average? Above average?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Above average

10:10
Comment From atoms
Matt Moore just threw 9 innings with only 1 walk, against one of the most disciplined teams in baseball, the Red Sox. His BB% in July is less than half what it was in June.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: 63% strikes since June 9, spanning eight starts. 54 strikeouts, 22 walks, 52.1 innings. Still doesn’t have great location but improvement is improvement and he didnt’ need to improve by all that much. He’s on a good trajectory

10:11
Comment From Chess
Are the Yankees considering Soriano as a DH? He has had a good UZR in left his whole career.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Wells replacement

10:12
Comment From The other Kyle
You’re a pitcher with a slightly above average track record and, at age 25, in a contract year. It’s September, and your team is battling for a wild card spot. You’re given an opportunity: You can pitch a perfect game, but it will take 3 years off your life. Would you do it? And how do you think that perfect game is worth in contract $ in the offseason?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t do it because I wouldn’t want to know I was going to throw a perfect game beforehand. Takes all the magic out of it

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: And more to the question, no, because I’d trust myself to be able to throw a good game otherwise that wouldn’t result in a shorter lifespan

10:12
Comment From BP
I know that you and Dave aren’t really Fantasy guys. But is there an economic pressure on Fangraphs to produce more fantasy content then you would like to, just to generate traffic ?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: We have a fantasy site and it does well. It’s very active

10:13
Comment From HC
Assuming the M’s sign one “big name” free agent this offseason, who do you think it is?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Lincecum

10:13
Comment From Joel
Describe Geoff Baker in as few of words as you want.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Passionate

10:14
Comment From John
Regarding front offices and fanbases: David Wright gets re-signed when this team has no chance to compete for another 2 years at least. A smart FO would have traded him this past off-season, knowing full well how terrible the team will be for a few more years.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: That had less to do with the fans and more to do with signing a superstar baseball player to a long-term extension

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: And the Mets think they have core young pieces, some of whom are already emerging. They’re not that far away.

10:15
Comment From zack
Do you think the cardinals were secretly glad Pujols turned down the extension offer they made? Obviously they had to try to appease the fans, but do you think they really wanted to commit nearly 200 million to him?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: They wouldn’t have made an offer they didn’t believe in, but yeah, the best move they made is the move they couldn’t make

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t offer somebody $200 million just to appease some people who buy tickets

10:16
Comment From Abner Dalrymple
Dogs or cats? Or lemurs?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather play with a dog but own a cat

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: F: dog
M: cat
K: parrot

10:17
Comment From Guest
Paxton has been very good lately….is he ahead of Walker in pecking order?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Walker’s better, Paxton could see the majors sooner

10:18
Comment From Steve
Regarding fans and on-field personnel decisions, though, the Pedroia extension talks are a great example of the twain meeting perfectly, though. That is a terrible sentence but you get what I’m saying.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, fans love great players who are loyal

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: A front office never *wants* to do something against the fans’ wishes, but the fans can’t guide the transactions

10:19
Comment From Joey
Would you be shocked if Josh Hamilton posted a 900 OPS in the 2nd half?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:19
Comment From Guest
If Fantasy Baseball didn’t exist, how big would the percentage drop in Fangraphs readership be?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Substantial

10:20
Comment From Joel
Scale of 1-10, how attractive is Dave Cameron?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: 100!

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Love you Dave!

10:21
Comment From William
How do you explain Votto’s meager RBI total considering he’s one of the best hitters in the league and Choo bats two spots ahead of him? Is Cozart really that much of a black hole?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Votto has driven in 12% of base-runners, against a league average of 14%

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: A quarter of the time Votto has batted w/RISP, he’s drawn a walk, intentional or unintentional

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He just doesn’t end up with that many at-bat opportunities

10:23
Comment From Matt
Do you have data on how the league average triple slash changes based on base states?

10:24
Comment From Guest
Do you think the higher vulnerability to injuries of pitchers makes them more or less valuable?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Less

10:24
Comment From Curious George
Which is your favorite major league ballpark you’ve visited?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: AT&T

10:24
Comment From Jeb
How quickly do the projected standings update? Does the current page reflect a Garza-infused Rangers team and bye bye Braun?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe daily? Maybe faster?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a way to check:

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Click on the Brewers and scroll down

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: No Braun to be found

10:25
Comment From Gila Monster
What does a Pedroia extension look like? Brian Kenny seemed to think 7 year/$131 million. But shouldn’t it be in line with the 5 year/$85 million Kinsler deal. Especially when the Red Sox could show Zobrist got 4 years /$18 million after an MVP worthy season, is a better player, and has positional flexibility.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: 6 years, $100-110 million or so

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe an option to bring it in line with Kenny’s estimate

10:27
Comment From Tom
Has anybody ever posted a 189 wRC+ with a 28% K rate like Chris Davis is doing?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll check but I’m guessing certainly not

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: 1998 McGwire at 23% strikeouts

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: 2002 Jim Thome at 23%

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: 1971 Willie Stargell at 25%

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: So that’s that, but remember strikeout rates keep increasing and remember Davis’ season isn’t finished

10:29
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Don’t hate on Detroit. :(

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t take my most favorite athlete of all time

10:29
Comment From Ben
Last night, the guys on MLBTV made fun of the Braves for not bunting runners over. John Smoltz followed with “Take that sabermatricians” after a groundout moved over a runner when a K wouldn’t have. Instead of playing for the tie, the Braves scored twice and won the game. I lold.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: The Braves barely have a higher team strikeout rate than the Mets or Pirates

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been league average at productive outs

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been average at scoring runners from third

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been above average at advancing runners from second

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: and they have more bunts than the Mets and Cubs

10:31
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Are there advanced statistics and analysis being done on hockey? If so… holy crap that seems difficult and crazy.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, there’s a ton out there

10:32
10:32
Comment From Prich
Favorite restaurant in Portland ( Oregon, not Maine)?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Veritable Quandary

10:33
Comment From Izzy
If the Mets hadn’t signed Wright this past offseason, how much would he get in free agency?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: 6/$140 million? More?

10:34
Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Why are the Yankees going for someone like Soriano? It seems like a bizarre move to go for more old, slightly broken, expensive players.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Easy to acquire, familiar, at least average, would replace a black hole

10:34
Comment From Christian Yelich
I just wanted to see my name in this chat

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Hey, you’re all right

10:34
Comment From Guest
So the M’s starting 5 next seas Felix Kuma Lincecum Erasmo and Walker?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not Walker right out of the gate but that wouldn’t surprise me in June

10:35
Comment From bdhudson
Attention everyone: front offices do not consider you when they make roster moves.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: As well they shouldn’t

10:35
Comment From Guest
re your STL Cards article. maybe they just hit certain types of pitching well, thus get in scoring postion vs those pitchers and then keep hitting – vs other types of pitchers maybe they just can’t get on base and then don’t fail against them with RISP since they never get there.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Then explain 2012?

10:36
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Honestly I’m not sure if you were praising or bashing Chris Owings before. Is that a good or bad OPS at reno?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not really impressed by a sub-.900 OPS in that kind of hitter’s ballpark

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I know he’s super young and he’s talented and all but I wouldn’t say he’s forcing his way

10:37
Comment From Northsider
You just FMK’d animals. I’m dying…

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I hope nobody takes the “F: dog” out of context

10:37
Comment From Guest
Isnt Paxton more of a reliever?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Potentially, but he seems to be making progress as a starter these days

10:37
Comment From Jeb
Has anyone had Slayer as their music for stepping up to the plate?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Probably someone once

10:38
Comment From Jerry DiPoto
What kind of contract should I offer Mike Trout this offseason?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: All of them. All of the contracts.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll have one more year of being cheap, then three years of arb, then free agency

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: 8 years/$144 million?

10:39
Comment From Dr. Met
When did Alexei Ramirez turn into Rey Ordonez?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Last year

10:39
Comment From Sickels wants to know
Other than Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, of course, what are your three favorite baseball sites?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Rotoworld, USS Mariner, Twitter

10:40
Comment From LarryA
Odds of 0 future MLB at-bats for A-rod?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: 10%

10:40
Comment From Guest
re: pitchers value, doesn’t the fact that they will become hurt mean that you will need more of them? Or, is this reflected in things like WAR?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: You need more but each one is valued less because of the risk.

10:41
Comment From Fan fan
If the Mariners could have traded Iwakuma to the Rangers for the OLt package, should they have?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. I’d rather do better than Olt

10:41
Comment From Reddickulous
Do you ride a bike in Portland?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t ridden a bike since I was eight

10:41
Comment From Sean T.
How do you look up number of baserunners and driven in percentage for a hitter?

10:42
Comment From Seth
What do you think of Baseball Reference’s SRS statistic on their standings page? Think it’s a legitimate projection of the best teams in baseball? Come to think of it, what’s your opinion on BR in general? Strengths/weaknesses?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never really looked at SRS. On that basis I guess I don’t care for it? My opinion of BR is extraordinarily high. Maybe there are things it could do better, but already it’s invaluable and I’m still discovering new features made possible by the Play Index

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I use the Play Index every single day

10:43
Comment From Geoff
Would the Marlins and Angels be anything more than mediocre Triple A teams?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: They’d be good. The Astros, though, might not finish first

10:43
Comment From Seth
Any interest in MLS?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Interest in having an interest

10:43
Comment From pr
when i look at hitting, help me understand whether i should look at wRC+ or wOBA

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Think of wRC+ as park-adjusted wOBA

10:43
Comment From Guest
Just reported Pedroia gets 100 mil over 7 years. Thoughts?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a great deal for Boston, and lots of people will be happy

10:44
Comment From Ed
With the potential suspension for Cruz and the injuries, don’t the Rangers seem a better fit for Soriano?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: They probably don’t want him for 2014

10:44
Comment From Dave
How do you feel about Kornblatt’s?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: fan

10:44
Comment From Arencibia
HI Jeff, am I a good catcher?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: ehh

10:44
Comment From Sean T.
Owings is 21 in AAA, with a 130 wRC+ and very good defense at SS. That’s a pretty damn good SS.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: And K/BB numbers that hint that he could be exposed against good competition

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Just no need to rush this

10:45
Comment From greg
What are your expectations for Christian Yelich?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Modest, at first

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t exactly terrorize Double-A, but he’ll get there in time

10:46
Comment From Andrew
Do you mostly agree with Dave’s trade value list? Any surprising omissions?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I see eye to eye on an awful lot of things. I know better than to quibble with a list like that

10:46
Comment From Guest
Not a fan of mlbtr?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t use it as much as I probably should

10:46
Comment From Nick O
Thoughts on Nate Silver to ESPN?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: $$$

10:47
Comment From Nick
Meteor strikes a stadium while a game is occurring. Which stadium, and which two teams, are you hoping are wiped from the planet?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Honda Center, Ducks and Red Wings

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: got you!

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: alternate team: Maple Leafs

10:48
Comment From Sean T.
Let me rephrase re: Chris Owings. His BB% is a huge issue, but if he develops some discipline, his ISO and defense will make him a top 5 SS easily. But he’s only 21 in his first season at AAA.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: so let’s see if he develops some discipline

10:48
Comment From ryan
Will a bigger name than Garza be traded before the deadline?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Peavy count?

10:48
Comment From @outfieldgrass24
So you’re the one A-hole in Portland driving a car. I see, it all makes sense now.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I walk and run a lot

10:48
Comment From Bkgeneral
Re: Votto RBI. Isn’t his total more of an indictment of Cozart than him?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely isn’t an indictment of Votto

10:48
Comment From Joe
Seeing a lot of comments about trading Iwakuma, is this something that might happen? With his contract it seems like the M’s are probably better off keeping him,imo

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Won’t happen but there’s an argument for why it should

10:49
Comment From Mike
Nice follow up to the no no for Lincecum. Expect that?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Can you really expect anything specific from Tim Lincecum?

10:49
Comment From danny
Do you ever get tired of Portland being such a thing? Wish you lived somewhere more baseball-y?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I love it here. I don’t want to live in a city surrounded by rabid sports fans. I want to live in a city that’s exactly this connected to the outdoors.

10:50
Comment From Jays Fan
How often will Marisnick play for the marlins ?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: pretty

10:50
Comment From Kevin
Never used baseball-reference.com. Any must see features I should be aware of.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: basically everything

10:50
Comment From Aaron
Should the Indians move Trevor Bauer for something? A DH or SP?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t really have a lot of value these days

10:51
Comment From Guest
No mention of LL? That’s cold.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Not cold, just honest. I don’t read much commentary about the Mariners

10:51
Comment From Neil
You always sign off by telling us to have good days and weeks. We never get a chance to respond and I feel rude for not wishing you well. Have a good day and week, Jeff.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: And that’s probably my cue to cut this off and see what work I have on my list!

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Time to move on with my Tuesday. Thank you everybody for coming by and sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again a week from now — the day before the deadline! — and in the meantime, be well and be great




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>