Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/30/13

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys and welcome to this chat

9:03
Comment From JEB
Gasp…are you actually, on time?!

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: lol no

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk about baseball and the trade deadline!

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s not talk about fantasy baseball

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: And if you ask me for a ROS projection, and I tell you to go to FanGraphs, it’s because they have better ROS projections than my human brain does

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Some of the time, I will disagree with the ROS projections. Most of the time, the numbers will be smarter than I am

9:04
Comment From Ryan
Dylan Bundy for Jose Bautista–who hangs up?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Toronto.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Bundy isn’t even pitching!

9:04
Comment From Anon21
Do you expect Brandon Beachy to be an above-average starting pitcher this season?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: By a little bit

9:04
Comment From The Boss
C’mon Jeff. Let’s go.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hey David

9:05
Comment From zack
What was your reaction when you heard that the Mariners were considering being buyers at the trade deadline?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Half “yeah that sounds like them,” half “this is probably a bullshit report”

9:06
Comment From 2ndHS
I can be a bit of a homer sometimes, but I really don’t understand why I haven’t heard more trade rumors surrounding Kyle Lohse. I get that he’s 34 and signed through his age 36 season, but he’s been pretty darn good. Do you think it’s because the Brewers want too much for him, or is it more that teams just aren’t interested in what he brings to the game?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think the perception exists that Lohse isn’t a “difference-maker”. It was made pretty apparent over the winter how he’s perceived by the broader market, and even though now he’s succeeded without Yadier Molina, he’s still not a highly desirable piece, and teams probably don’t like the idea of being committed to him into his later 30s. I am sure there’s been talk but Lohse wasn’t in high demand a few months ago so he’s probably not in high demand now

9:08
Comment From Guest
If Joe Mauer quit baseball, would he be a hall of famer?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, if he did it in six or seven years

9:08
Comment From Alex
When asked RoS questions, you often point to the fangraphs projections. Has there been a notable instance where you vastly disagreed with those projections?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Usually I’ll consider disagreements if there have been fundamental changes to a player, like a hitter or a pitcher who changes his mechanics. Or maybe a pitcher adds a pitch or gains/loses velocity. Even in those circumstances, the ROS projections are probably still pretty smart

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I remember I *wanted* to disagree with the Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez projections. Whoopsadoodle

9:10
Comment From Chris
Whats going on with Gio all i heard is he took legal supplements will he be suspended?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t seem like it

9:10
Comment From zack
If the Marlins offered Stanton 7 years/110 million would he take it?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine so. There must exist some point at which Stanton would consider sticking around, but he knows if he doesn’t sign with Miami he’s gone to a contender. All he needs to do is not get hurt or struggle, and he has more than enough confidence in his own talents.

9:12
Comment From Doug
UGHHHHHH. Woke up today and realized I’m a Blue Jays fan! FML!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: You have your physical health

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I assume that you have your physical health

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: People love you

9:12
Comment From JEB
Do you think giving A Rod a lifetime ban would be a good idea or a bad idea? Do you think it may scare some players into using PED’s less?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: It kind of depends on all the evidence they have against him, and I’m only privy to the rumors and whispers. Realistically, a ban through 2014 would effectively be a lifetime ban, in that what would be left of Rodriguez afterwards would be awful, probably. I don’t think it would scare people into not using PEDs — it might scare people into not trying to interfere with a major MLB investigation. Word is Rodriguez has done a lot more than just put chemicals in his body

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: This is a unique situation that isn’t going to be like any other situations

9:15
Comment From Ryan
If you were the Red Sox, what would you spend on Cliff Lee in terms of dollars/prospects?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’d pay one steep price, but not two. I’d either take on all the money and pay fairly lightly otherwise, or I’d give up a lot of talent in exchange for not taking on so much of the money

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: But it won’t surprise you to learn I basically agree with Dave’s sentiments on the matter

9:17
Comment From Milhouse
As a Mariner’s expert, can you inform me more on Stefan Romero? Is he a guy who will sneak up on the league?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Romero’s coming up on 25, he doesn’t have a set or great defensive position, and he doesn’t have a bat that’ll play anywhere. He’s looking like he’ll maybe be a bench player

9:18
Comment From GSon
Is John Mozielak & the cardinals going to do anything ?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Probably something

9:19
Comment From Alex
Who do you think will be in the mets rotation at the beginning of next season?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably going to look very familiar

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler’s status will probably be determined over the coming two months. So far he hasn’t thrown nearly enough strikes to be worth starting next year out of the gate

9:20
Comment From _David _
Would it be worth it for a team to use a roster spot on an Olympic sprinter who is solely a pinch runner and might be able to learn outfield and bunting at some point?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: You could probably construct your team in such a way that that kind of player would make sense, but I’d pass, and that’s without even acknowledging that Olympic sprinters don’t know anything about reading pitchers and situations

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: In the playoffs, it’d be more useful

9:21
Comment From Transient Gadfly
I want one Oliver Perez. How much will it cost me?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Consider the Francisco Rodriguez/Jose Veras trade returns. Something in that neighborhood, and maybe a tiny bit higher

9:23
Comment From Izzy
Who will lead the National League in WAR this year?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Actual WAR, David Wright. Real-life WAR, probably Yadier Molina

9:24
Comment From Dan
Even though many consider some Central teams to be better, are the Braves the best bet for the NL pennant purely because they are almost guaranteed not to be in the play-in game?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: That seems sensible to me

9:25
Comment From Guest
please tell me Amaro gets smart and trades Cliff Lee, as much as I love Lee this team needs prospect deberatly and are going nowhere

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Delmon Young has 263 plate appearances and he missed all of April

9:26
Comment From Alex
Who is the biggest name (other than Peavy) who you think will be moving this trade deadline?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Alex Rios? The name value of this trade market sucks

9:27
Comment From Big Daddy
Just how good is Wil Myers? Please put him in some comparative context with Trout, Harper, and Machado. Thanks!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: He is not as good as them but maybe close to Machado!

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Myers chooses power as his standout skill. Machado chooses unbelievable defense. Looking forward to seeing Myers’ performance over the final two months

9:28
Comment From JEB
Lee getting dealt is now back on the table, what team do you think is silly enough to trade away 4 top prospects and take on his entire salary?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: 2002 Montreal Expos

9:29
Comment From Guest
Rumors around Bundy being traded surfaced yesterday. If you ran the O’s, what would you trade Bundy for, if anyone?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Now is so not the time to try to make this happen.

9:30
Comment From DirtWoman
Inquiring minds want to know: what is D. Bundy’s trade value right now?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Less than the Orioles would want. Teams, understandably, place a premium on guys who are performing and not rehabbing

9:30
Comment From zack
What is your take on Jason Heywards season? Has it affected your longterm expectations?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves would be hard-pressed to have a more confusing outfield

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, I think a little less of Heyward than I did several months ago

9:32
Comment From james
what type of pkg would the jays get if the chose to deal rasmus?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: two pretty good prospects and a prospect you could talk yourself into believing might someday be pretty good

9:33
Comment From Guest
Who will have the best career WAR between M’s rookies – Franklin, Miller or Zunino?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Zunino because of the position

9:34
Comment From zack
If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it would MLB still blame AROD?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: no

9:34
Comment From NJQ
Why did Mariners resign Felix and not trade him to improve their future?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Felix was and is a big part of the future. Even today, he’s 27

9:34
Comment From Kate
What would it take to pry Stanton from Loria’s clutches?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: three more months

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: expect this to be the thing that dominates the winter meetings rumor mill

9:35
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
What hurts the value of Nelson Cruz/Jhonny Peralta more in FA next year: Taking a suspension for the rest of the season and being labeled as “quitters”, or being suspended for the beginning of next season?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: The second one. The second one is a direct loss of value while under contract.

9:36
Comment From Dave
The White Sox asked for Polanco or Taillon for Rios. Where would that rank on the all time bad trades list?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty bad. Also every team has asked for way too much in exchange for the players who haven’t been traded yet, which is why they haven’t been traded yet

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: The trade deadline is the worst

9:36
Comment From GM, Manager, Player Participation
Do you guys ever wonder if GMs, Managers and Players come on to your chats anonymously to get your input to help them make decisions or figure things out in terms of how they play, etc.?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I should certainly hope they don’t do that

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Do you know how little thought goes into an answer to a chat question? There are like hundreds of questions in the queue and we don’t have any time to think

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Many of them do read the FanGraphs front page

9:38
Comment From James
Given that the Royals aren’t selling (as much as I want them to), who do you think they’ll get to play 2B and what do you think they’ll end up giving up?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Royals basically stand pat

9:38
Comment From Sonny Cheeba
Now that the Mariners have all lefty everything, would they have been better off not moving the fence in?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Moving the fences in was long overdue, and that’s a permanent, long-term change. It’s about making the park more fair, making Seattle more appealing, and helping hitter psychology

9:39
Comment From Anon21
What do you think is the realistic single-season fWAR ceiling for Andrelton Simmons if he carried a 100 wRC+? (Assume perfect defensive measurement.) I saw Braves twitter last night suggesting he could be a legit MVP candidate which sounds nuts, but some analyses suggest he is cutting 20 points of BABIP off opponents basically singlehandedly.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Right now he has 150 career games, an 88 wRC+, and a 4.5 WAR. So bump that up a little bit. But his defense is only going to get worse over time, so there’s the unfortunate caveat

9:41
Comment From Alessandro
Thoughts on Ken Rosenthal saying the Red Sox should give up Bogaerts for Cliff Lee?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Sufficiently controversial

9:41
Comment From zack
Who would you rather keep longterm: Smoak or Montero?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Ugh probably Smoak. Neither is good but Montero is practically garbage

9:42
Comment From Ryan
Should the Reds have serious concerns about their bullpen? Marshall and Broxton remain injured, and Chapman has been less dominant than in the past.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say serious concerns — their bullpen has been above average and Chapman is still striking out 40% of dudes. But I can see them adding a reliever, just like I can see any contender adding a reliever

9:44
Comment From fats
the blue jays could realistically have three 5 WAR players. man their pitching is bad. this sucks

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers were terrible despite the outstanding Jean Segura, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Carlos Gomez. So

9:45
Comment From Zach
Is a Mets 6-man rotation the best way to go about limiting Harvey and Wheeler’s innings?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s the best way, but it’s a fine way. And it could also be temporary, depending on how things change and who gets hurt or struggles.

9:48
Comment From Trav
Wilson to the Dodgers just seems… apropos

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: “What’s that? An available player with oodles of name value?”

9:48
Comment From peachesnnuts
Walk off triple and the winning pitcher was on the team for like 3 hours beforehand, baseball is fun.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome, Scott Downs. This isn’t what it’s usually like

9:50
Comment From Spencer
Could the A’s potentially buy and sell? Perhaps sell Balfour so they can buy Gregerson and not skip a beat? Or are they actually honing in on this year’s window?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: If there are options out there, the A’s have thought about them. They certainly wouldn’t be afraid to both buy and sell, but I think they’re mostly looking to improve and take advantage of the 2013 window before going into the offseason and establishing a new and slightly different 2014 window

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to be a team who sacrifices long-term for short-term, but that won’t prevent them from exploring their opportunities

9:52
Comment From Guest
are the Sox crazy for goin after Lee aren’t they still maybe a yr or 2 from the ws?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Why would they be a year or two from the World Series? Especially with Cliff Lee on them

9:52
Comment From Dave
Pirates rebuilt from 2008-2012 by drafting well, developing well, and making smart trades. The Dodgers rebuild in 1 year by spending $300M, how is this fair exactly?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates are six games better than the Dodgers are

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: And we’ll see where the Dodgers are in a few years

9:53
Comment From Ryan
With Jesse Crain getting traded, I was wondering– who has been the most successful player for his new team after a mid-season trade while on the DL?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of anyone else getting dealt while on the DL besides Jake Peavy. So, Jake Peavy

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s happened, but Peavy’s the only one on the top of my head

9:53
Comment From Rear Naked Choke
Asked Enos this the other day and wanted your take. Why doesn’t baseball simply start some sort of service clock when a player signs a professional contract. Make the time period about what it is today(minor league years + arb years). Then teams could promote when they felt players could help them instead of someone like Will Myers spending half the season in minors. Seems like everyone would benefit, especially the fans.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I have the time to completely and adequately think this through but I like the general concept. Obviously you’d probably need different service clocks for college picks and high-school picks, or maybe you wouldn’t and you’d just change the drafting equations. There have to be some unforeseen consequences here that I’m just not imagining but the concept, I support

9:56
Comment From Joe Nationals
Kevin Towers once was asked if there’s any GM in the league he refuses to make trades with. He said, “Only one. And I’ll name him. Jim Bowden. The guy’s an idiot. I won’t take his calls, and I don’t think many others do.” Do think it’s possible that GMs ice each other out like this? Do you think it was true with Towers and Bowden (point of fact, they did make one trade after this quote–Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence.)

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think some GMs definitely have complicated relationships that makes transactions more difficult/unlikely. This is one of the reasons why it’s important for an executive to have quality people skills. But ultimately what matters most is a guy’s roster, and if there’s something you really want from another team, you’ll suck it up and try to get it, no matter which GM is pulling the strings. I’d think of something like this as a hurdle

9:57
Comment From tylersnotes
rank in order of how much you want to talk about these things: 1

9:57
Comment From peachesnnuts
This report the Rangers inquired on McCann was strange to me. Offering RP help? I assume so but Atlanta would want much more than Joe Nathan.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: It’s an inquiry. Teams inquire about lots of guys. Everything that happens in the second half of July feels like news, but inquiries are inquiries and nothing happened there for a reason.

9:59
Comment From Tripp
What are the odds Jesse Crain is closing out games for the Rays on Sept 1?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Super low. Rodney’s on a roll

9:59
Comment From JN
What do you think of the Cubs’ plan to spend whatever they want on the international market even though it means they basically have to punt the next 2 years?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Reading about this…

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so, first of all, they wouldn’t necessarily have to punt the next two years — they just wouldn’t be able to sign the cream of the crop. They might have decided that they could get better returns blowing away the pool in 2013 than looking down the road

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s an aggressive strategy, obviously, which is why no one else seems to be doing it, but if the Cubs identified guys they love right now, might as well get them in the system and suck it up down the road. Talent now is talent now and that’s always going to be put at a premium

10:04
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
What percentage of deadline rumors/trade scenarios are concocted solely as traffic generators?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: A relatively low percentage is made up, at least by the main rumor guys. Everything they do is informed by something they’ve heard. The traffic part is in how the information they have is reported, and in how much of it they report

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: The internet is awful. Awful awful awful.

10:06
Comment From _David _
Considering the ability of AAAA players to mash in AAA, if Carlos Peguero were to improve or even pull a Chris Davis, wouldn’t it be really hard to detect?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: He’d probably at least have a four-digit OPS, which he’s never come close to

10:06
Comment From Anon21
Is it mean-spirited or whatever to just laugh at Nationals playoff scenarios that start with them taking 6 or 7 of 9 games from the Braves the rest of the way?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think “mean-spirited” is the word

10:07
Comment From Hieronymous
As a Yankee-hater (also known as an American), how mad should I be if A-Rod gets banned and the Yankees get out of his awful contract?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: If that actually happens, the Angels are going to start planting some suggestive evidence around the Pujols household

10:11
Comment From Studs and Scrubs
Have you watched the Phillies lately? And if you have, does AAA have its newest team?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: ugh why would I watch the Phillies

10:11
Comment From Drew
Are the Royals gonna do something stupid? It makes trade season so fun.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they’re going to not sell, so, yeah

10:11
Comment From Guest
Is the Minnesota Twins starting pitching the worst you’ve ever seen? No one has a K/9 of more than 6..

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like I’ve seen worse, but I don’t know if I’ve seen less interesting

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Look at the Padres. Look at them.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: LOOK AT THEM

10:13
Comment From Studs and Scrubs
What is the difference between the two ROS projections?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Two different projection systems

10:13
Comment From Mark
How is the bouldering?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Challenging and awesome

10:13
Comment From Jack Z
Have I miraculously saved my job for next season?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Looking that way at the moment!

10:13
Comment From Bryan
If a team like the Cardinals, Reds or Pirates trades for an impact player, are they doing it in order to try to win the division or in order to boost their roster for a potential one-game playoff?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Well, basically both, but the first one’s way more important. No one would trade much for an impact player specifically with one single game in mind

10:14
Comment From _David _
Is the next market inefficiency figuring out how to teach stuff to players, like trying to create the next Scutaro?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe it’s getting guys to beat DIPS theory. Maybe it’s actually being able to value and predict relievers. Maybe it’s collecting pitchers with outstanding changeups.

10:15
Comment From ryan
Do you think Tino Martinez would still have a job if he hadn’t placed his hands on the player (whether it was around neck or not)?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe for another few weeks, until the Marlins fired him for the team being terrible at hitting

10:16
Comment From Dave
Gerrit Cole has been impressive thus far, but holy crap Jose Fernandez, best rookie season since who?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I assume you mean rookie pitchers

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Yu Darvish? Does that count?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: For a pure rookie, perhaps Brandon Webb

10:18
Comment From Nick
Is team chemistry a significant concept in baseball and if so, how much do you think chemistry matters when teams are talking trade?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Matters more to some teams than others. Most of the time, I don’t think it’s a consideration. I think teams will generally avoid known problems, but those guys are few and far between

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: and one notes that Yunel Escobar has been a major contributor to this year’s Rays!

10:19
Comment From pat
why should i have any confidence whatsoever in ackley?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, basic faith in human capability or whatever

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: He blows

10:19
Comment From Nick O
Any thoughts on the physiology of pitching? Are we ever going to see more MLB pitchers throw like Dr. Mike Marshall?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Over time, I think you’ll see a trend toward more and more “unconventional” motions, as we get a better understanding of what works for what guys

10:21
Comment From Andrew
How surprised are you that Liriano is effective again?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: 7 surprised he’s effective, 8.5 surprised he’s this effective

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he just needed the NL the whole time!

10:22
Comment From erbun
Eric Sogard’s been hitting pretty well lately. Sustainable?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’s capable of not sucking, but he’s not sustaining an .800 July OPS

10:22
Comment From zack
If Barry Bonds had played all his games in pre humidor Coors how many home runs would have hit?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: All of them

10:23
Comment From Trav
Think the Giants will really only move Lopez? Their farm system is… I mean, come on.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Well, we don’t know what they’re being offered, but Pence/Lincecum could easily draw qualifying offers this coming fall, so trade packages have to exceed that in potential value. I imagine things will ramp up significantly in the coming 27 hours

10:25
Comment From Andrew
Are the next couple days going to be remarkably boring (with respect to baseball trades, at least)?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be interesting in terms of rumored potential trades

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be fairly uninteresting in terms of actual trades, but the entertainment value will be there

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: The deadline is never as insane as we want it to be, because we want it to be entirely too insane

10:25
Comment From Izzy
How long will it take for the Robinson Cano contract to look like an awful idea.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: 6 years

10:26
Comment From John
How common are team RISP batting outlier seasons? Is what the Cards are doing (45+ points higher than 2nd) as odd as it seems? or the Bucs and there .220ish average despite solid team wRC+?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Last I checked, the Cardinals have the biggest difference between RISP hitting and regular hitting ever. So, these sorts of things are unusual, but they’re not blatantly unprecedented because if you think about it, situational hitting represents just a fraction of a full season and fractional season can be fluky

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: The real danger is in believing this is something the Cardinals are doing right, and the Pirates are doing wrong.

10:28
Comment From Rags
Why are the Reds checking in on Pence? Is Choo’s injury worse than they’re letting on? They’ve Ludwick coming back, right?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Checking in isn’t the same as dealing for

10:30
Comment From Izzy
Will Jacoby Ellsbury get more than Jose Reyes?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: No, but it’ll be in the ballpark

10:30
Comment From BX
If you’re the Phillies GM, are you pushing hard for 100% salary relief or the best prospect package (Assuming you can only get one)

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Best prospect package

10:31
Comment From John
Has Profar’s lackluster performance this year significantly reduced his trade value?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Highly doubt it

10:31
Comment From Ernesto
Do you think the Mets could get anything worthwhile for Marlon Byrd?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:32
Comment From Dustin
Can Justin Masterson sustain the improved K rate moving forward?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yes! To some extent. Things are better for him now

10:32
Comment From Ernesto
Now the White Sox are going to “Build around” Peavy. Sounds an awful lot like posturing to me.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds an awful lot like posturing to everyone. But they could conceivably hold him until the winter meetings

10:33
Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro
why do people think jose altuve is good?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: He’s an interesting and adorable player on a terrible team. People want to believe he’s good because he’s miniature

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Also he’s still only 23

10:34
Comment From pat
so justin smoak has gone from bust to platoon 1b? on a scale of 1-10, what should the confidence level be in him next yr. or should i say openness to replace him?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Smoak looks like a decent player who could also easily be improved on. So the Mariners could do worse, but Smoak shouldn’t be a guy they plan around unless he really shows something down the stretch

10:35
Comment From atoms
Which non-Mariners teams in the AL West do you dislike the most and the least as a Mariners fan? As an A’s supporter I dislike the Angels the most and the Mariners the least, for example.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Strongly dislike the Angels, barely dislike the A’s

10:35
Comment From Tom
What do you think has been the most fascinating breakthrough in sabrmetrics since DIPS theory? Thanks for chatting!

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: For me personally it’s pitch-framing, but you’re talking about an awful long window of time and even simple constructs like WAR might count as sabermetric breakthroughs

10:36
Comment From Tim
When do you think catcher framing runs above average will be on individual player pages?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: When we have a better understanding of how to calculate them

10:36
Comment From John
The Rays did the whole Cubs Latin America strategy last year. They are limited to 250k max per player this season.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: There you go

10:37
Comment From David
IF Braun were to be traded, which fan base would be most welcoming? Hate it the most?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Based on precedent, the Giants would appreciate him, and I have no idea who would hate it the most. Which city has the highest rate of parents irrationally concerned about the sensibilities of their children?

10:38
Comment From Steve
If Mike Trout lost a hand would he still be better than Brandon Inge?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: No, he’d be worse, but I am interested in the idea of Brandon Inge = Mike Trout – body part

10:39
Comment From Steve
Does Nick Castellanos get the call up this year?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe, but he’s not on the 40-man roster and July has been a catastrophe

10:39
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Do you see the Dodgers significantly regressing in the future?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: From what? from 56-48? No, not really

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: From 26-6? Yes, most certainly

10:40
Comment From God
“The internet is awful. Awful awful awful.” You watch your mouth, Jeff Sullivan

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: My favorite part of every day is shutting down the internet and doing something else.

10:41
Comment From Steve
Do you think Cole Hamels goes back to his dominating ways in the second half?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be better

10:41
Comment From Steve
Is Chris Archer really this good?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: the 62 ERA- or the 103 FIP-?

10:41
Comment From Travis
Your reaction if Chris Johnson wins the NL batting title?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: mild surprise, followed by greater surprise that SCOTT KAZMIR IS PITCHING IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES FOR A CONTENDING TEAM

10:42
Comment From TKDC
When you see a guy race around to third on a walk off hit, how much of you thinks “he’s hustling” and how much of you thinks “he’s padding his stat sheet”?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I have never once thought the second thing

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: now I’m going to

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: thanks for contributing to my cynicism

10:42
Comment From Matt
Dave’s article about the Red Sox and Lee this morning ends with noting that their World Series winning odds weren’t going to move from more than from 10% -> 15%. I don’t disagree with his overall point (that Lee at Amaro’s price isn’t a good deal), but aren’t the odds *always* bad that any given team will win the World Series? That would seem to have all teams shy away from buying.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Well there’s a difference between buying and going all-in, which is essentially what the Red Sox would do if they caved to the rumored Lee price. It’s all about balancing values and probabilities and a slight shift in championship odds isn’t worth taking on a ton of money and giving up a ton of youth

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably very rarely worth giving up a top prospect around the trade deadline

10:44
Comment From David Price
is my trade value back up after a slow start, or is it higher than it was the start of the season?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Back to normal

10:45
Comment From Sam
Who matches up best with the Rays for a winter David Price trade?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: A somewhat similar group of teams that matches up with the Marlins for a Stanton trade. I’ve seen the Cubs get mentioned, and you always have to think about the Rangers in these kinds of situations

10:47
Comment From Sam
Is 6/36 a fair deal for Wil Myers right now? Would he take it?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Moore got $14 million for his first five years. Longoria was guaranteed $17.5 million over six. I think that’d be fair for Myers, and I think he might easily take it

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: That’s probably more than Tampa Bay would have to guarantee

10:49
Comment From Guest
Dave said the M’s need a whole new outfield next year. Who do you think they should/will go after?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Have to see how the rest of the season plays out to know how many holes they need to fill. I imagine they’ll make noise about Ellsbury before ultimately dropping out. I don’t know what they’re going to do or who they might trade for

10:50
Comment From Tom
Always wonder – who are the sources, generally, that national guys like Rosenthal cite? Are they assistant GMs who are told to leak info? Player’s cousins who like to text? Are do the national guys just ask a ton of questions until they get answers?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: It is always funny to hear about rumors of moves being in development. Who’s pausing negotiations to slip that to a reporter? If things are factual, a lot of the time they’re meant to be leaked

10:51
Comment From Kate
Presented without comment: RT @Ken_Rosenthal: #Phillies’ Michael Young only WILL approve trade to #Rangers. Full no-trade clause.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: And it could actually happen!

10:51
Comment From Guest
How bad will Pujols be next yr?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: A little better than this year! But not nearly good enough

10:51
Comment From thomas
Why do people put so much value on hitting .300?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Why do people put so much value on drinking milk?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: We’re all raised certain ways

10:52
Comment From Bkgeneral
Are Cardinals a team to watch for a collapse? Young starting pitching, RISP hitting hard to to maintain, and bullpen already down a major arm.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Collapse, no. Get slightly worse, sure. But they’re very good, still

10:52
Comment From Guest
Who is your least favorite team?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Angels

10:52
Comment From Dr. Met
Does anyone know what happens to a players owed salary when suspended, I thought I read somewhere the money gets paid to some MLB escrow? Seems like a team shouldn’t benefit financially from a suspended player by recouping cash flow.

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I believe the team just keeps the money.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Which, all right, maybe you disagree, but then it wasn’t the team that chose to use performance-enhancing drugs. Why penalize a team when you should really just be penalizing the player?

10:55
Comment From Tarlon Nerd
Marlon Byrd is having a much better year than Justin Upton. Acknowledge this.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: That count?

10:55
Comment From Tom
Oscar Taveras + Carlos Martinez for Lee. Who says no?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals

10:55
Comment From Spencer
If the Marlins don’t trade Stanton this winter, is it conceivable that the Marlins have the second best team in the NL East next year? A little bit of offseason spending (we know they have it) and promotion of some really good prospects should maybe make them better than the Nats maybe?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Super long shot. They have talent, but a lot of it’s raw, and who’s going to want to sign there anyway?

10:56
Comment From Jason C.
Is there any chance David Price could win the CY after his horrible first half of the season?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Won’t have the innings

10:56
Comment From Nick, the guy who asked you this last time
Meteor hits a BASEBALL stadium where two BASEBALL teams are playing? In your perfect BASEBALL world, which BASEBALL stadium and which two BASEBALL teams get obliterated.

10:59
Comment From Paul
How common is a walkoff triple anyway? Seems like it would be pretty rare.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: 2 so far in 2013

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: 3 in 2012

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: 2 of these 5 have come against Tom Wilhelmsen

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: 2 in 2011

10:59
Comment From Spencer
True or false: Peavy makes his scheduled start tonight.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: False

11:00
Comment From Jason C.
Will the Rays have the top 3 in the RoY voting? If they dont, shouldnt they?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Nick Franklin

11:01
Comment From Rocky
Would Chris Johnson be the worst player to ever win a batting title?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know about ever, but I wouldn’t be surprised http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_leagues.shtml

11:01
Comment From RationalSportsFan
Do you think umps should be studying what successful pitch-framers do to trick them into thinking balls are strikes?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think they should be studying ways to try to focus only on the flight of the ball, so that they pay less attention to what happens behind the actual strike zone

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know to what extent this might make any difference

11:02
Comment From Matt
Do you think the Twins will be able to compete in 2014?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: they will be able to compete in some games, yes

11:03
Comment From Izzy
Rank them for career value: Wil Myers, Yasiel Puig, Oscar Taveras

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Puig, Myers, Taveras

11:05
Comment From Wil Myers
My BABIP is high but it was always high in the minors. Thoughts on sustainablity?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: BABIP is also inflated in the minors. Myers might be a real .300+ guy, but he’s not a .380 guy

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: In AAA, Myers’ BABIP was about 10% better than the league average. Right now in the majors he’s +25%

11:06
Comment From Tarlon Nerd
why would tex want michael young?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Lance Berkman might be finished and Young isn’t a bad hitter

11:06
Comment From Chat_Expert
When you are as slow as Jeff Sullivan is at answering questions, don’t waste time by answering the same questions twice.

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Comment From Chat_Participant_Expert

When you are as disappointed by a chat as Chat_Expert, don’t waste two hours of time by following along and making zero contribution.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Some answers, I choose to research beforehand. Sorry for doing a service.

11:10
Comment From Anon21
If a player with, say, 2 years of major-league service time is released and picked up by a different team, does the acquirer control his rights for another four years, or just for one year?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty sure it’s another four years. But then, those players are almost never just dropped. Trying to think of an example

11:11
Comment From ralph
Is there any place to report problems with the depth charts? For instance, I see the Twins depth chart does not even mention Chris Colabello, even though he’s already accumulated some playing time and figures to accumulate much more.

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Nowhere official, but I’ll pass this along, thanks

11:11
Comment From stonepie
chances pujols comes back this year?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Probably won’t bother

11:12
Comment From aaaa
so you want to kill prisoners? classy

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: More than non-prisoners, if I had to choose death?

11:12
Comment From Cason
Who’s worse: Red Sox fans or Rays fans?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Some of both are great and some of both are terrible

11:12
Comment From Not Jack Z
If the M’s asked you to work in their front office for 10k a year doing baseball ops, do you take it?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: God no

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve in my early 20s, but now I have other priorities, like happiness and being able to afford things

11:13
Comment From Daniel
An corner OF has a 25% K rate, 6% walk rate and .220 ISO. Good player or great player?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know enough. Defense? Running? Durability? Based on this alone, reasonable player.

11:14
Comment From Chat_Expert
Just being a bit snarky, and I did field a question earlier. You just didn’t take it. Bad joke, sorry!

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: There are currently 818 people in this chat window, many of them submitting questions or comments. You wouldn’t believe how busy the queue is.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t even *see* the majority of things that get submitted

11:15
Comment From aaaa
why the prisoners? do you believe in free will?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: If I had to choose two baseball teams to be eliminated, and I had a choice between baseball teams of regular people and baseball teams of people in prison…

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: I almost said little leaguers but then some parents would cause this whole thing

11:16
Comment From BassmanUW
The team that picks up the player with team control rights retains those rights. Example: Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz is in his second year of arbitration eligibility this year. The Cubs control him through arbitration through 2014. Well, the Cubs or whoever they trade Schierholtz to in the next 28 hours or so.

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Perfect, thanks!

11:17
Comment From Izzy
Better record in 2014: Mets or Yankees? How about 2015?

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Yankees, Mets barely

11:17
Comment From Shark Mapiro
What type of contract could you see Scott Kazmir getting?

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Totally forgot he’s going to be a free agent. Amazing

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see how he finishes, but I could see a multiyear deal around $15 million or so (2 years)

11:18
Comment From Fart Taster
You totally exaggerate how busty you are Jeff

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Now this is a comment

11:18
Comment From AJT
Sequencing is mostly random, right?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Random or unsustainable, choose your term of preference

11:19
Comment From Shawshank Redemption
This would be a bad way to end the movie (or great!).

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Digitally remastered!

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, there’s probably some stuff happening, I haven’t looked at Twitter in more than two hours. I should get myself going.

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks everybody for dropping by and I apologize for all that I didn’t get a chance to address. We’ll do it again next Tuesday probably a few minutes after the hour, and until then have great weeks and an entertained trade deadline.

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Go baseball!



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Eric Blair
Guest
Eric Blair
3 years 1 month ago

If the Jays were to offer Reyes to the Cardinals what sort of return would they get assuming the Cardinals wanted to strength a very weak position.

Dylan
Guest
Dylan
3 years 1 month ago

I would think that the problem with starting service time immediately is that those guys aren’t part of the MLBPA. If they’re on their service time, it seems they should have Players Association representation, which they do not.

Cliff
Guest
Cliff
3 years 1 month ago

It’s not as if this is an unfixable issue. whether by creating some clause that grants minor leaguers representation in certain matters which require it, or creating a separate minor leaguers union that operates within/under the MLBPA, or even just adding them in now, it would be a rather simple fix.

I mean, we’re talking about a union here. majority rules. pretty simple. and I’m guessing it would have to get worked in to the next CBA, but I’m not sure I see any kind if major objection coming from the owners quite frankly. i don’t think it would be hard to get them to agree to a pay scale for a guy’s first contract, and possibly even the second? Basically similar to arbitration?

I dunno maybe it’s more difficult than I’m considering. the owners prolly aren’t dying to have guys waste years of team control in the minors.

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