Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/8/14

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Ahoy there!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: It’s time for us to talk about this, where “this” refers to major-league baseball

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Standard caveat: I’m not the guy to ask your fantasy questions. I can’t really give any good fantasy baseball advice

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: or regular fantasy advice

9:07
Comment From zurzles
can we just remove that kershaw start from history? pretty please?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Our minds are not capable of understanding a pitcher with 11 runs allowed over a dozen starts

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: That start is in there to keep us from exploding from the inside

9:09
Comment From _David_
Welcome to the Mariners Jesus Sucre?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Excellent defender, little bat, as opposed to Buck who is a mediocre defender, with only a little more bat

9:09
Comment From Catoblepas
No minor leagues? :(

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: You can try, but I sure am under-educated on prospects!

9:10
Comment From Spencer00
Why the heck is Ian Kinsler not even on the final ballot?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: It would appear the AL selected for itself one too few pitchers

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically been the same player as Kyle Seager, and Seager needed an injury to squeeze himself in. Could happen for Kinsler, too. Always a perplexing process

9:13
Comment From Guest
Any possible chance the M’s could land Tulo?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: You can go ahead and ignore any and all such suggestions

9:14
Comment From Ricky
Zach Wheeler for Starlin Castro- who says no?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Wheeler and Castro are the same age

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Seems to me like the Cubs wouldn’t be satisfied by such an exchange

9:16
Comment From Bret
Hi Jeff! In return for your tardiness, can you please tell us how you would fix the Jays?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: something like Zobrist + Kennedy could be a dream

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if it’s actually possible and probable, but it covers some bases for a team that, when healthy, is better than this

9:17
Comment From _David_
Probably just a false rumor, but shouldn’t the Mariners wait and see just how good Maurer can be in relief before essentially giving him away for someone like Viciedo?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, one should be content to move relievers for starting outfielders. But you have to make sure you’re talking about an actual helpful starting outfielder and not that guy

9:19
Comment From Steve
Settle an argument. Farrell has said Koji is in line to get Tanaka’s All-Star spot. My friend says this is the right move (based on rate stats). I say Garrett Richards is more deserving (based on value). Who’s right? (Ignore Sale: We both thing he should go.)

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a matter of what you want the All-Star Game to be. If it’s about first-half performance, then it should be Richards over Uehara. But if it’s about performance since the previous All-Star Game, then it should probably be Uehara. I don’t think one could go wrong here, to be honest

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: so have fun continuing to argue!

9:21
Comment From Kevin
Any chance Castro from the Cubs gets traded this month since they’ve added Russell?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll definitely be listening but at the moment there’s not yet any sense of urgency

9:21
Comment From Chris
John Buck was DFA’d last night. Obviously he wasnt very good, even in a backup roll, but was highly regarded in the clubhouse and most of the players liked him. What do you think of the move with all the players apparently negative about it?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll write about this later, but for one thing, the pitchers were apparently grumbling about Buck a bit so it’s not like every last player is devastated, and you also have to consider that perhaps Buck had already made the difference he was brought in to make. Is the team chemistry now going to fall apart? If Buck was the glue, as Zunino said, maybe the glue dried, and so it ought to hold. Ultimately it’s a baseball move and it’s interesting to see the Mariners of all teams seemingly going for analytics over chemistry

9:23
Comment From Vslyke
What is La Stella’s ceiling? Can he potentially become an All-Star caliber player?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Well, Marco Scutaro made the 2013 All-Star Game

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: La Stella is virtually powerless, so eventually he’s going to start getting challenged. It’ll be more difficult for him to draw walks, but he rarely strikes out, and David Eckstein turned this kind of package into a 4-WAR season in 2002

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Really, you’re talking about a guy who could be an average regular for a handful of years

9:25
Comment From Guest
Best impact player rumored to be available for trade you can think of?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: It’s Price, and Cliff Lee’s close if he’s healthy. I don’t think the Rockies are going to trade Tulowitzki, but if they do start with the process, then clearly he vaults up

9:26
Comment From Guest
Manny Machado is friends with A-Rod. Is this the biggest non-story ever? Also, his bat has really come around recently.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: One of the downsides of writing is that, even on your off days, when you don’t have any great ideas, you’re still basically required to publish something for lots of people to read

9:28
Comment From Ethan
With their playoff odds down below 5%, do you see the Red Sox as sellers at the deadline? If so, who goes?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you see a lot of movement, because the team can come right back and try to contend in 2015. So they’d be shedding more insignificant things, like the mediocre Jake Peavy, or maybe Jonny Gomes, or bits from the bullpen. I don’t think Lester moves, and I think the big names remain

9:32
Comment From Oren
Is Aaron Hill bad again? How much to the Dbacks have to eat for a team to take Hill?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: The good news is that Aaron Hill has bounced back from bad years before, but the bad news is he’s never done it at the age he’s at now. The Diamondbacks would either be assuming a different bad contract, or they’d be paying more than they’re probably willing to pay. I think in this case Arizona gives Hill time to try to work things back out

9:33
Comment From Catoblepas
Who breaks first; Kershaw or Hernandez? Best best-of-each-league pitchers in recent history?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Your first question is extremely upsetting to even begin to think about

9:33
Comment From Mark
The real question is how filthy would Kershaw’s numbers be without that shoddy start in Arizona?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: 85.2 innings, 58 hits, 11 runs, 10 walks, 112 strikeouts

9:34
Comment From glub
That’s got to be a career-ender for Arroyo, right? (also, what the hell was towers thinking?)

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: The Twins and Diamondbacks paid for the certainty of durability. Now Nolasco is getting his elbow checked, and Arroyo’s already arrived at the worst-case scenario

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Durable pitchers are durable until they’re not. Pay for talent

9:35
Comment From Jobin
What do you see from Headley ROS?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: endless trade rumors and a mediocre performance in whatever jersey he wears

9:37
Comment From Daniel B
What do you make of Yankees? Is there enough out there (that the team can get) to improve the team enough to justify the effort? It seems like the division’s problems are giving false hope…

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees project as a .500 ballclub in a division full of .500 ballclubs. They’re not good,but neither is the competition, and they might be the best positioned to make an impact move or two in the coming weeks

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is a team you pay out the ass to make better, but if the Yankees can find a somewhat affordable and versatile infielder, that’d help them, and come playoff time there are worse things than beginning with Masahiro Tanaka

9:40
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Red Sox will trade Lester?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never considered it likely, and I still don’t

9:42
Comment From Bret
Is Gordon Beckham a trade candidate? Or more of a DFA candidate?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: kind of both. he’s a trade candidate who won’t and wouldn’t fetch very much

9:42
Comment From The goggles, they do nothing
So the Jays are pretty terrible lately. People using the argument that they’ve been going up against “good pitchers” is garbage. They can’t score runs to save their lives. How does this get fixed so everyone in Toronto can be happy again? Reimold certainly isn’t the answer. Gordon Beckham would be a good start in my opinion. Thanks.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Thing about Gordon Beckham is he’s not good

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: The team’s been hurt without Lawrie and without a totally functional Encarnacion. The offense you saw earlier this season hasn’t disappeared for good. There’s still room for an improvement, and I already mentioned an option like Ben Zobrist, but the Jays still project as a solid group of hitters when the group is mostly healthy

9:45
Comment From JonnyLestah
why are the Reds & Blue Jays moving good defensive RF to 1B in light of injuries? Won’t this greatly decrease the overall defense?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: In theory you don’t want to move good defenders, but it’s all settled by how the roster is actually constructed, and in these two cases it’s not like there are vastly superior options

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all, supposedly, short-term

9:46
Comment From Tom
With the A’s making the first real “move”, do they kinda force some other teams hands to stay competitive?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they make things more interesting for the Angels and Mariners, but I think the rest of the teams don’t need to respond since the A’s were presumably going to win that division anyway

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: And teams aren’t going to make midseason moves just to try to match up better with the A’s in the playoffs

9:47
Comment From Bill Williams
hey jeff first of all i want to say I’m a huge fan. anyway, which baseball player do you think wears an excessive amount of cologne during games

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yasmani Grandal probably smells unusual

9:48
Comment From Felix
Me and Kuma, who else is more scary in the playoffs?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw and anyone

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners have a good front two, but other teams are deeper and sometimes you need as many as four starters in the postseason

9:50
Comment From PieTraynee
Are there three better position players in the NL than McCutchen?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: On true talent, no, I dont’ think so

9:51
Comment From Sandy
Is Stephen Strasburg the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, or just the unluckiest elite pitcher in baseball?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: This year, could be Brandon McCarthy

9:52
Comment From Xolo
Does Headley become the steal of the trade season?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: He projects for one and a half wins, he’s a free agent in November, and the Padres seem to still value him like he’s a legitimate quality player. I don’t think he ends up a steal, but he does end up a volatile, unpredictable asset

9:53
Comment From Joel
How much longer do you think the Mariners are going to give Corey Hart to try to hit a baseball?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll add a bat in the next 3 weeks

9:54
Comment From kevinthecomic
So, the Astros call up Domingo Santana for a cup of coffee — he proceeds to spill said cup of coffee all over himself and gets sent back down — is he back up this year? if so, what kind of production can we expect for this year? career?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think he comes back later on and I think he survives. This move was a little bit pushed by Dexter Fowler going on the DL. Santana’s still very young and very talented and you don’t want to get down on him because of a handful of overmatched plate appearances against the best pitchers in the world

9:56
Comment From Redbird Fredbird
Should the Cardinals trust the RoS projections, and believe the offense will turn around, or is it time to start panicking about the lack of production?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals project as a .529 team, and if you use the season-to-date tab, they project as a .524 team. So they’re pretty good, and on the year they’ve had a roughly league-average offense

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Of the ten guys with 100+ plate appearances, six have posted a strong wRC+. The problems have been Craig, Bourjos, Wong, and Ellis. You’d like to think that Taveras could help diminish some of their roles, so I don’t think this unit is a real problem

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: But as Dave’s written about, Price/Zobrist sure would change the landscape. That quickly the Cardinals vault to being elite

9:59
Comment From Sumodave
With the significant lack of “impact bats” available at the deadline, but the very significant need for them, who do you see as a possible “nobody saw that coming” sort of trade. Tulo? Parra? Beltre?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Tulo would be fascinating. Beltre’s not impossible. The ultimate wild card would be someone knocking the Marlins’ socks off for Giancarlo Stanton

10:01
Comment From JP
Do you expect the Padres to actually trade someone of consequence before the deadline?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: They’d better

10:01
Comment From Chris
Do the Mariners match up as a trade partner for Troy Tulowitzki?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Not with their rumored financial constraints

10:02
Comment From Guest
How often are these major trades win-win for both teams, as the Shark/Russell trade seems to be?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say most trades are probably win/win, when you’re dealing with two teams in very different places — truly lopsided trades are unusual, and this one stands out more because of the level of ability of the players involved. Most trades are roughly even, but few trades are this impactful

10:03
Comment From jim
Do you make your own gifs with mlb.tv? What screen capture do you use, or do you use other software?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I use HyperCam, but I know other people have way better processes. I’ve been using the same process for years because I am not actually good with technology or the Internet

10:03
Comment From Indians Fan
Should I give up on Danny Salazar?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: In his last seven starts in Triple-A he’s struck out 29% of batters with about a quarter as many walks

10:05
Comment From Zachary
If John Doe has a wRC+ of 100 in Coors Field, and then you take all of their real stats (AB, AVG, OBP, SLG, etc) and transferred those stats to Petco Park, about what wRC+ do you think this more impressive performance would be?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Rough comparison:

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Wilin Rosario: .248/.286/.423, 80 wRC+
Tommy Medica: .239/.286/.427, 101 wRC+

10:09
Comment From Dave
Should the Pirates try and make a major move to get to the playoffs? Who should they target? Headley?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Used to be I recommended Brandon McCarthy, but now maybe it’s a guy like Ian Kennedy? McCarthy and Hammel were the most interesting of the second tier. They could use a shortstop upgrade but obviously, unless Tulowitzki ends up available, there aren’t a ton of options there and Stephen Drew looks like crap

10:11
Comment From Rosey
Does Latos’ reduced velocity so far this season worry you, as he’s roughly 2.5 mph below his 2012 & 2013 levels? He’s been successful so far, but should Cincy fans be worried?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t love that his velocity is down so far and hasn’t yet shown any signs of improvement since coming off the DL. I’d check in to see where he is in another month, since maybe he’s just in part of a gradual process, but you don’t want to see Mat Latos at 14% strikeouts

10:12
Comment From Cam
Thinking of the A’s post trade, is there more value in having Milone on standby in the minors vs. going with 6-man rotation? Are there just too many unknowns for a team in contention to experiment with a 6-man rotation?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t want to disrupt players’ routines in the middle of one of the best seasons in franchise history. Odds are something will happen and Milone will become needed for at least a stretch in the final three months

10:14
Comment From Dave Dombrowski
What would it take for the Tigers to acquire Street and Benoit?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t it be funny if the answer were Robbie Ray?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: You’re looking at a close-to-the-majors prospect. Benoit and Street are solid. I’m not super well-versed on the Tigers’ top prospects list, but the system would need to be weakened, not insignificantly

10:17
Comment From Flustered KC Fan
What do you make of the Royals’ handling of Billy Butler vs. their treatment of Eric Hosmer? Is it simply a case of a Baird guy vs. a Moore guy or is there more to it?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer is first on the team in plate appearances, and Butler is third. They’ve played in 88 and 87 games, respectively.

10:19
Comment From _David_
Divish said that Morales and Cruz were unwilling to take one year “show me” contracts from the Mariners…Are we still in in age where teams don’t understand park factors? I think also to Beltre signing with the Red Sox for less money, even though the Mariners were coming off a successful-ish season…And A-Rod…why are unadjusted stats so important to players?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Because it’s more fun to get real hits than adjusted hits

10:19
Comment From All-star fan
Yeah, you could make that argument that Kinsler and Seager are the same player but but those stats look a lot more impressive from a 2B

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: There’s not really much of a difference between 2B and 3B, to be honest

10:21
Comment From Joe
Cubs already traded their two pitchers are they done with trades or who else will they be looking/able to move?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a lot left to do. Maybe someone takes a flier on Schierholtz. Ruggiano ought to be of interest as a role player. Valbuena would be an interesting option for a team like the Blue Jays or Yankees who could use infield depth and versatility. The wild card is Starlin Castro, but I dont’ think he gets dealt

10:23
Comment From Kevin
What are the Cubs gonna do with 3 guys who all profile as major league quality shortstops? Which one gets moved to 2B and which one gets traded?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: At the moment, Russell has just about zero experience above Single-A, and Baez is still in the process of improving in Iowa. Baez, you could definitely see moved to second base, and Russell has the ability to play almost anywhere. Bryant, too, might end up a corner outfielder instead of a third baseman. What the Cubs don’t have is three big-league shortstops on the big-league roster, so what the Cubs do have is time

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Thing about young shortstops is they’re the most athletic players on the roster, meaning they’re defensively capable all over the field

10:25
Comment From Dave Dombrowski
Look into your crystal ball. Are Joe Nathan and Torii Hunter on my roster when the playoffs come around?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Tigers leave off that kind of veteran experience

10:26
Comment From Reginald Denton III
How do you grade the A’s / Cubs trade for both sides?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: It’s easy to grade for the Cubs. They got a very tippy-top prospect. They get an A. Samardzija and Hammel were goners — that much was a foregone conclusion. For the A’s, they’re now down to maybe one weakness. I’ll give them a…B? Hammel’s not going to be of much help come playoff time, perhaps, but the Angels are strong enough that they need to be fended off

10:27
Comment From Beaucoup Bucks
Choco Taco or Drumstick for ice cream based snack of the year?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Ice cream sandwich with two home-baked snickerdoodles

10:29
Comment From Jim
What are your long-term expectations of Jackie Bradley Jr?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: They’re lesser than they were a year ago. No power and high strikeouts is an ugly combination. I think his power is better than this, but he’s going to need to show it in order to get more pitches out of the zone and therefore more walks. If the strikeouts are always going to be there, that puts more pressure on the rest of his skills and I’m not totally sold

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Good asset but far from any kind of guarantee

10:31
Comment From Erik
Who is your pick in the Volcano World Cup? We’re all dying to know.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: U-S-A! U-S-A!

10:32
Comment From NL guy
what do you see the M’s doing about the trade deadline? think they’ll be active? Colon looks like he could be a good fit… also speculation they’ll be looking to add a corner OF bat tho not sure who’s available…

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think they end up with a power-hitting corner OF and a second- or third-tier starting pitcher. I suspect they’ll express renewed interest in David Price, but I don’t think that actually ends up happening

10:32
Comment From Sumodave
Can Chris Young keep Chris-Young-ing the league in the second half? If he does, would you sign him to a 2-year deal in the offseason or thank your lucky stars and give him the ole’ John Buck?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think he can be functional down the stretch, and then I offer him a one-year deal for 2015 and if he doesn’t take it, oh well. He’s a great fit for that ballpark, obviously

10:33
Comment From just me
Can’t we just get rid of the All-Star game now? It was fun when I was a little kid (pre-cable, pre-internet), when we could see our baseball stars routinely. Now, like me, its just a useless anachronism which serves no purpose, except to create aggravation where none should exist.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: It generates a lot of money and players seem to love it. It’s not something I personally look forward to, but baseball has far bigger problems

10:34
Comment From Guest
If you were in the Rockies position, would you try to trade Tulo?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’d let teams know he’s available but I wouldn’t be the one pushing anything

10:37
Comment From Seth Tearz
What could the Angels offer to acquire either Joaquin Benoit or Huston Street from the Padres that wouldn’t cause WHOMEVER is running the Padres to just jump in the ocean?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Cam Bedrosian and Nate Smith? That might make sense

10:37
Comment From Corey
Do you think the Indians make a big trade? I don’t really see it. If they sell the farm, what they get back would only serve to make them good enough to get the the WC game. And if they get something small in return, what’s the point really?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t see them making a splash. Does trading Cabrera count as a splash?

10:38
Comment From baltic fox
With Masterson a disaster lately, and Tomlin and House unimpressive in their ability to miss bats, do we see either McAlister or Salazar (or both) very soon?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I would definitely expect so

10:39
Comment From Sumodave
I’ve asked this before, but you wanted some time to think. Well, it’s been a few months so… Whats the most amazing thing you’ve ever seen with your own eyes?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: There’s recency bias here, but about a month ago a friend and I were attacked by golden eagles

10:39
Comment From JP
Do the Rays have a chance to make the playoffs?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, an awful one

10:40
Comment From People
Garrett Richards is experiencing a career high in k/9, why should I believe that it’s more than just an outlier?

10:40
10:41
Comment From FlaccoStoleMyGirlfriend
I asked this last week, so please forgive my persistence. Is there anything that you have seen statistically and\or mechanically that would lead you to believe that Steve Pearce’s success is even borderline sustainable? Btw, I love you.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect he’s probably made a minor adjustment that gives him something of a quicker swing, but unfortunately the answer to this is probably “Chris Davis”

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t yet gone in-depth on Pearce, really, but you just don’t see 31-year-olds do this out of nowhere and have it be their new talent level

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: The most likely thing is he’s just put a few extra good swings on a few extra pitches

10:44
Comment From Gilby
Chris Taylor for Josh Willingham fair or an overpay for the Mariners.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: A little too much for the Mariners, I think, but it’s closer to being even than a lot of Mariners fans would probably like to think

10:45
Comment From Catoblepas
Do you see a Rays resurgence in the AL East? 4.2% chance on the standings page seems low, but that’s probably just recency bias from 2011, right?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: They need to finish 49-21 to reach 90 wins. That’s a winning clip of .700

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays are better than they’ve played, but the hole is simply too deep

10:46
Comment From DatDued
Scherzer for Lester straight up who hangs up first?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers

10:47
Comment From J
Have you ever seen a collection of position player prospects like the one the Cubs currently have?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I have a terrible memory, but, no, this is obscene

10:48
Comment From guest
Who is the next big name player to be traded?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Is Ian Kennedy a big name? Maybe him or one of the Padres’ two bigger-name relievers

10:49
Comment From Mark
Have you read Billy Beane’s column in the WSJ?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: This is the first I’ve heard of it! Will seek it out

10:49
Comment From Andr
If Portland got an MLB team would you continue to be a Mariners fan?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you don’t just up and switch concrete loyalties

10:50
Comment From baltic fox
Yesterday, Dan S. said there are good game theories for why you don’t make trades within the division. Keith Law says this line of thinking is irrational. What’s your opinion, specifically about a trade of Price to the Jays for prospects like Aaron Sanchez and Pompey?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not afraid of dealing within the division. I get why it’s slightly different from trading without the division, but I dont’ think the differences are that meaningful

10:51
Comment From Rhendricks
Would someone like Chase Headley make sense for the Cardinals to go after?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think they want someone hitting

10:51
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Nolasco injury means we’ll see Meyer soon?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t mean we’ll see Meyer later

10:52
Comment From Oden
Heyward looked like he was going to be special, and he’s seemingly regressed offensively every year. Is it a hole in his swing or what? Is there a monster offensive player in there still?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s sustained last year’s drop in strikeouts, which is encouraging. He’s just missing the power, but he’s always had pretty good power before so I suspect this is more of just a power slump. In both 2012 and 2013, he posted about a 120 wRC+, and I think that’s his ability

10:53
Comment From Sumodave
Given your druthers, would you rather have Soriano for free, or Viciedo for less than free? Which would make the M’s better?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Give me almost literally anything else

10:55
Comment From Guest
What do the Diamondbacks have in young Chris Owings? His ISO is way up this year. He seems a much better hitter than Didi.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Owings was always considered the superior bat, with Gregorius owning the superior defense. Owings, offensively, is probably a bit over his head, but given his adequacy in the field, he looks like a pretty good long-term asset. Gregorius should be thinking about the possibility of a trade, unless the Diamondbacks manage to dump Aaron Hill and change a guy’s position

10:56
Comment From Oberto
How do you feel about beef jerky?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I prefer pepperoni

10:56
Comment From bbtb
Is there an interesting Padres question you’d like to answer? (I can’t think of one)

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: 40. THEIR JUNE wRC+ WAS 40.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: And in July, it’s 118. Baseball!

10:57
Comment From just me
Does Nick Frankiln get traded? If so, where?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t even been good in Triple-A lately. Still kind of a throwaway asset, but he hasn’t built value

10:58
Comment From abe
What are we to think about Casey McGehee and how likely is it that the fish sign him for at least one more year?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: McGehee is actually arbitration-eligible for another year

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: It seems like he’s made adjustments to his swing, given the low power and the reduced strikeouts, but I’m not buying him as a .373 BABIP, and unfortunately that BABIP is what’s making him valuable

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a decent player, better than people expected him to be, but he’s a 31-year-old singles hitter.

11:00
Comment From Oden
Considering what was thought of each player when they were 20, could Atlanta be fielding the most disappointing OF of the past 20 years?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Their outfield is still 11th overall in WAR, in large part thanks to Heyward’s defense. But it’s an interesting question

11:00
Comment From Beanes Slop
Seems like Oakland will run away with the West, and the AL crown. What, if anything, will stop them from winning the World Series?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball

11:00
Comment From Angie Mentinks Spilled Drink
Bigger All Star Game injustice: Derek Jeter starting SS or Kinsler/Iwakuma snubs?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Sale?

11:01
Comment From Hunter
Would you rather build a franchise around 22 year old Mike Trout or a 32 year old Barry Bonds?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The former. Costs less, too

11:02
Comment From Dback
David Peralta – fact of fiction?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Mostly fiction :(

11:02
Comment From Phil
Do you see The Red Sox trading Drew to the Tigers so that Betts can play SS?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Tigers want a shortstop who has a wRC+ of 5

11:03
Comment From NL guy
speaking of Gomes, is he a fit in Seattle?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: He shouldn’t be, but he could be

11:04
Comment From Guest
I haven’t seen much talk of Volcanoes in your chats lately. What’s up?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: I like to shift around between taking too many volcano questions and taking too many Mariners questions. Today feels like more of a Mariners day

11:04
Comment From Ed Snowden
If you could see any team’s trade deadline notes, a la Astro’s, which team and GM would you want to see?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: This year, maybe Cardinals?

11:05
Comment From Magic
If The Dodgers called you, Jack Z, and offered you any 5 players from their team for Felix, save Kershaw, would you take the deal, and which players?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Puig, Ryu, Greinke, Van Slyke, whoever… (Gordon?) yeah, you take that deal, because lol

11:07
Comment From Nat
Has Jordan Zimmerman stepped it up to the next level and if you had to choose one for the next couple of years, Zim or Bum?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s stepped it up a half-level but I will take Bumgarner by a hair

11:08
Comment From Joel
Why do you use correct grammar and capitalize letters here, but you write like a slow doof on twitter?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Twitter has a different voice

11:08
Comment From benj
If you’re a GM, do you focus more on stockpiling lots of good arms to insure against injury? Or do you try to sign pitchers who are known to be more durable?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t believe all that much in a team’s ability to identify durability. Stockpile talent

11:09
Comment From someguy
Do you think the “biggest” deal of the season has already been done now that Samardzija has been moved?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t think that gets topped

11:09
Comment From Joel
If the Mariners offered you a job to be a sabermetric analyst, would you take it?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but I’d hear them out

11:09
Comment From guest
As it stands right now, who wins the one game playoff between the Mariners and Angel?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners if Felix starts, the Angels if he doesn’t

11:10
Comment From Bill
Think this year’s trade deadline will be better than last year’s dud?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Does this past weekend count?

11:12
Comment From Tom
What move, if any, do you see the Cardinals making?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I tend to bet against blockbusters, so I think they probably just emerge with an extra versatile infielder, but they might be more equipped than anyone to go huge. So it’s going to be a really tense three weeks

11:13
Comment From Snoth
What’s the percentage likelihood the Angels win the AL West?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Probably about 1-in-6, so about 17%

11:14
Comment From LoverBuns
My girlfriend is European and doesn’t understand baseball. Will our relationship last?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: If it doesn’t, and if it’s because of that, it’s as much your fault as it is hers

11:15
Comment From JB
Do you think realistically it is possible that the Rays get a package better than the Cubs got for Shark if they move Price? Shouldn’t they?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Price is going to have a far higher salary than Samardzija in 2015. For that reason, I don’t think the Rays top the package, but they could just about equal it

11:15
Comment From Joel
Game 7 of the World Series…who do you want…Felix or Kershaw?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw. He’s impossible

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, I need to wrap this up and move on to other things!

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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