Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/9/13

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hello, and we’ll get started in just a few minutes

9:02
Comment From Alex
It seems too “on time” please push it back

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: That’s why I’m still finishing up my breakfast, even after 9am rolls by

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I could stress out about this, or…

9:02
Comment From zack
What are the odds the Mariners try and sell high on Iwakuma and flip him for highly touted prospects that flame out in two years?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Just don’t see it happening. The team isn’t that far away — pretty much no team is that far away — and Iwakuma is a really good value. Good luck replacing that value. Not saying it wouldn’t make some sense, but that’s a good situation that doesn’t need to be interrupted

9:03
Comment From Guest
The Pirates have a real shot at the playoffs but they haven’t received alot of production out of their rightfielders. What if they moved Marte to center & McCutchen to right? It would be easier for them to find a bat for left and their defense could be improved in center/right. Thoughts?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not helpful to disrupt a pair of regular outfielders so you can try to go find a third, especially since it isn’t markedly easier to find a LF than a RF. Nate Schierholtz would still make an awful lot of sense

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for a few more Mariners questions:

9:06
Comment From Clambaker
What are your thoughts on how the Dustin Ackley as CF experiment has gone thus far?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Not supposed to be doing this in the majors yet, so it’s a work in progress. This is what a work in progress looks like

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: No reason to believe he doesn’t have the range, but his arm is going to be one of the worse ones, probably

9:07
Comment From Kevin
What’s your take on the last ~400 Justin Smoak PAs (.275/.371/.441)?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate big-leaguer, obviously below star level, but worth playing. He’s figured some things out

9:08
Comment From James
Jose Altuve… What gives? Would Aaron Hill be a better fantasy option ROS?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: He just isn’t actually that good. He’s just passable. Also he’s 23

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: spent all of 35 games above Single-A

9:09
Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Is WAR based off position as well? So if a 1B and SS are playing exactly identical ball, the SS would have a higher WAR since SS is a premium position?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: If they have identical offensive numbers and baserunning numbers and UZR, the shortstop will have the higher WAR, yes, because his defense is coming at a premium position

9:11
Comment From Guest
Prospect question: what’s the difference (in ceiling) between Yelich & Buxton?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Not big enough to worry about either way

9:11
Comment From Izzy
Question about David Wright. The projection systems see him as about a 5 WAR player. They likely don’t weight his 05-08 performance that much. Does the fact that he was a great player who declined and came back make you think he’s better than ZIPS and Steamer say? What would you put his true talent WAR at?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: The projection systems don’t completely buy his drop in strikeouts. Also, you have to look over at the Fielding column — from 2009-2011, Wright got some really negative defensive scores. Figure that evens out a little bit, figure the contact gains are real, and Wright sure seems like a seven-win player, ish

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much it should matter if a guy has been elite in the distant past, but at least that gives you something to compare to

9:15
Comment From Bret
I have so many questions about the Blue Jays’ pitching rotation but I guess I’ll choose the most pertinent which is… what is up with RA Dickey? Or is it… what is up with Josh Johnson? Will any of these pitchers ever be good again?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Johnson is probably okay — the velocity is there, the strikeouts and walks are normal, the grounders are normal. Same xFIP as he had a year ago, just with different other numbers. Dickey has a pretty well documented back injury thing that might be related to his struggles, but he’s at least contributing some amount of value. And he’s 38 years old. Johnson, I believe in. Dickey is probably getting worse

9:17
Comment From Kate
And I was all ready for a chat starting now, not in a few minutes.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I will keep you on your toes

9:18
Comment From Daniel C
Can Raul Ibanez be explained by science? I’m not sure he can.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: probably by alien science

9:18
Comment From Dan
What team(s) outside of the playoff picuture currently do you see getting in? (Current WCs are Pittsburgh, Cincy, Texas, TB)

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Let me do a quick sweep of the standings…

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: My answer is none. I think the current playoff teams will be the eventual playoff teams!

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Hard to pick between the Orioles and the Rays but it seems like David Price and Matt Moore are going to get going and the Orioles are probably done upgrading post-Feldman

9:20
Comment From Rob
If you could put a statue of any player doing something they did in front of any stadium, who/what would you choose? Cruz missing the flyball in the WS in Arlington would be a great choice

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Texas doesn’t need another super depressing statue

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’d choose this image of Randy Johnson, for Seattle http://www.gasolinealleyantiques.com/sports/baseball/images/mariners/96-marinerssked.JPG

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: San Francisco gets Barry Bonds’ dinger pose

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: 13 teams get statues of Octavio Dotel living out of a suitcase

9:25
Comment From Izzy
What do you think the Mets could get for Bobby Parnell?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Less than you’d want them to

9:25
Comment From mr. anonymous
haren looked not bad last night. last year, after his dl stint he was serviceable the remainder of the year. any thoughts that it could be the same this year?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: You know how this goes. Haren’s big problems are BABIP and dingers. Strikeouts are mostly fine, walks are mostly fine, velocity is mostly fine. Haren, unquestionably, is worse than he used to be, but I still see a fine back-of-the-rotation starter in there, even if the Nationals don’t anymore

9:26
Comment From Jimmer
What do you think of Carlos Santana? regression to his true self or just an extended cold streak?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing’s wrong. He’s now the same player he’s been three years in a row. In one sense, he’s incredibly consistent. The perception of consistency goes away if you get pedantic about it

9:28
Comment From Kap
What do you make of the recent Garza extension talk? Assuming you still believe they’ll trade him, how good do you expect the prospect return to be? Top 100? Top 50?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Makes sense to at least explore the possibility of an extension since Garza is good and the Cubs aren’t far off. Maybe they’ve been underwhelmed by the various trade proposals. I think a return package would probably be headed by a prospect somewhere in the 30-50 range

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think a team will see three months of Garza as being worth an elite-level prospect, and remember that if Garza gets traded, there’s no possible qualifying offer

9:30
Comment From Alex
Are there any moves that you see the M’s making before the deadline?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Oliver Perez is going to be gone

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: hooweeeeeee

9:31
Comment From Eminor3rd
Does Peavy get dealt? Pitching is THIN

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how he looks when he’s back but plenty of reason to believe a healthy Peavy gets put on the market

9:34
Comment From Guest
Where does Rios end up?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Giants? Would be a splash, albeit an understandable one, for Pittsburgh. Not a whole lot of obvious suitors but there’s little reason for Chicago to keep him around

9:35
Comment From Hieronymous
Are hitters more aggressive on 3-2 counts than other 2-strike counts? I feel like I’ve seen several hitters this year get to an early 2-strike count, take a bunch of close pitches to work the count full, and then swing and miss at some garbage nowhere near the zone to strikeout.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try the google!

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: It’s an interesting situation in a full count, because the hitter is incentivized to look for a ball, but the pitcher is more incentivized to throw a strike, because the ball penalty is steep, and hitters are aware of that. So hitters end up perhaps a little overaggressive as a consequence

9:38
Comment From Paul
Are UIBB and IBB calculated differently in determining a player’s offensive value? I get the reason lots of people make the distinction between the two, as a UIBB is less likely to be a result of various other factors and more likely correlated to an actual skill. But as far as contribution, they do the same thing right?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: The run value of an intentional walk is a little lower than the run value of a non-intentional walk, because those intentional walks will come in selected situations. For example, you’re not going to see an intentional walk with the bases loaded. But as far as I’m concerned, I think intentional walks should go into a value measurement, and only unintentional walks should be considered for a predictive measurement

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Unintentional walks better reflect actual skill, not that intentional walks can’t be predicted to some extent

9:40
Comment From zack
Player A 2013 .302 wOBA, 92 wRC+. Player B 2013 .329 wOBA, 108 wRC+ PLayer A is Josh Hamilton and Player B is Delmon Young. At what point does Hamilton figure stuff out or has he permanently turned into the cubs version of Alphonso Soriano?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Few better hitters than Hamilton over the last two weeks. Granted, that’s only two weeks, and the leaderboard is littered with random names, but with a talent like Hamilton you can’t helpb ut think every hot streak is a sign of what’s to come. He’s not dead yet — he’s just raised a lot of concern

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ll have a much, much better idea of Josh Hamilton one year from now

9:41
Comment From Eric
The Pirates need to keep Marte/McCutchen in Left/Center due to PNC’s huge left field. RF is the easy position in that outfield, they can’t waste one of their two good defensive OF’s there.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: There you go, earlier guy

9:42
Comment From Dr. Met
Frenchy is Bochy’s newest Aubrey Huff?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: “It’s just a minor-league deal, there’s no harm,” says the optimist, ignoring that there’s also no gain and a whole lot of risk

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Francoeur isn’t on the roster yet, but given that he’s terrible, why even end up in this position?

9:43
Comment From Anthony
What do you consider the ideal score for a baseball game?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: 4-3

9:43
Comment From zack
I’m telling you, the cubs will never deal Schierholtz within the division.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: man I hate this

9:44
Comment From Dr. Met
Re: buccos, would Nate be a huge upgrade over what they are expecting from Tabata?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Schierholtz bats lefty, and there’s value in that flexibility and depth

9:46
Comment From Snakecharm Bobby
Where can the Dbacks improve their roster offensively? One more bat could be enough to hold off LA down the stretch, barring any Heath Bell implosions.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: What they really need is for Montero and Prado to not be bad

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a difficult team to try to upgrade, specifically because of the way the roster was constructed. Pretty much all reasonable gains would be limited in magnitude

9:47
Comment From hooha
Are the Joba to the Phillies rumors as rediculous to you as they are to me? If Amaro is actually thinking about giving up value for him, he deserves to be locked in a padded room.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Having now read that article, it seems to me the idea would be for the Phillies to shed some salary

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: They’d take Joba back not because they highly value him, but because they’d want to offset to some extent a salary loss. So I wouldn’t worry about that one very much

9:50
Comment From Jimmer
long-term prognosis on Marte?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Good, swings too much, second-tier player

9:50
Comment From Dan
In theory, would it make sense to switch right and left fielders depending on the hitter if one is a markedly better fielder? For example, righty with power at the plate, switching Heyward to left and Gattis to right.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’d be sensible and a whole lot of fun

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: It’d make things a little difficult on the outfielders themselves, but if you have a big enough difference in defensive quality, it could pay off

9:52
Comment From Gila Monster
Should we be worried about Kung Fu Panda? 0 runs or RBIs thanks to a sub .300 OPS over the past 50 AB

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s always a little bit meaningful when a guy performs terribly fresh off the disabled list, but Sandoval was only on there for a foot thing, so odds are this is just a little blip and he’s going to be the same inexplicable value the rest of the way he usually is

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Sandoval’s O-Swing% is actually approaching 50%

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: he’s beyond 47%. 56% as a rookie in 2008!

9:55
Comment From Joe
Time to sell high on Matt Moore? Control problems, xFIP, FIP #’s, etc.

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: At least he’s turned up the strikeouts lately, although granted he’s faced some mediocre teams. But yeah, I’m truly concerned about Moore’s control and I’ve written about this in the somewhat recent past, I think

9:56
Comment From Moose
Are you surprised to see Profar not getting more playing time with Berkman on the DL? Is it possible that Manny gets the call after the break and Profar gets sent back down?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: It’s certainly possible, depending on what Ramirez actually shows, but I think Profar is just figuring out how to be a utility player at the moment and there’ll be a lot of value if he demonstrates all that flexibility. Imagine if, down the stretch, Profar could offer support at every non-C/P position

9:57
Comment From J
Chris Davis has to regress even just a little bit right? Trade him for another high-end 1B?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Every extreme performance can and should be expected to regress, but the problem with breakthroughs is that the whole time, you’re expecting them to stop, and then they never do. Just enjoy being the owner of the home-run leader

10:00
Comment From Anthony
what’s your thoughts on Josh Phegley?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Modest

10:00
Comment From Andrew
Best baseball name you’ve ever heard? Has to be Beamer Weems, right?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Bean Stringfellow, for agents

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: But every time this comes up I can’t help but think of Xavier Avery, who might still be alive and doing something somewhere

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: He might even be younger than 30!

10:01
Comment From Jaack
Thoughts on the Jeff Francoeur.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Nice man

10:01
Comment From Chris
Not to inundate you with mariner questions but why didnt they call Erasmo up?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Reliever in the meantime until Erasmo’s rotation slot comes up

10:01
Comment From steve mcqueen
Mac or PC?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: PC my whole life

10:02
Comment From Moose
Whats the deal with Bonifacio this year?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s tried to be more aggressive and it hasn’t worked

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: The last time he had a high swing rate, in 2009, he was also terrible

10:03
Comment From mick
If I invented a metric called TXY+…what would it measure?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Exertion Face above or below the Mark Teixeira baseline

10:04
Comment From Sam
Is OPS+ park-adjusted or just envoronment-adjusted?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: almost certain it’s park-adjusted

10:04
Comment From James
projections for Erasmo Ramirez?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Good pitcher, lots more strikeouts than walks, few too many dingers

10:04
Comment From Bill
Rumblings out of St. Louis have Ty Wigginton getting jettisoned soon (finally). Is there ANY team that could actually benefit from picking Wig up on a waiver claim? Or is he destined to run out the string in their farm system and become a minor-league coach/manager, which really wouldn’t be a bad role for him? (P.S. Gonna see Katmai in about a month, and will be thinking of you.)

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: I just learned about how Katmai is actually accessible :) :(

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Wigginton sucks. No point to anyone picking him up

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Which doesn’t mean no one will — someone picked up Jeff Francoeur — but at this point Wigginton is probably below replacement-level, and, well, there’s a replacement-level

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: there are replacements

10:06
Comment From JV
Giancarlo Stanton: Do you think he has a big second half? AND % he is traded in Winter and to whom?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Whenever this question comes up my response is something along the lines of, yeah, I highly believe Stanton gets traded in the winter, and right now I see Seattle and Texas as real possibilities

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: But Seattle needs to figure out its front-office situation and team circumstances are going to change between now and December. Expect Stanton rumors to completely dominate the winter meetings, and expect there to be dark horses. So many dark horses!

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: a whole herd of dark horses

10:08
Comment From Tom
Say the Cardinals are going to go out and trade for a SS. Who should they be looking at? E. Cabrera in SD or A. Ramirez in Chicago seem like upgrades. I’m not sure there is that much else out there.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: You know who might be a random fun gamble? Danny Espinosa. But, yeah, you’re right, there’s not much of a shortstop trade market. I mean, Brendan Ryan is readily available, but the Cardinals already have one of those, more or less, so it’s hard dto see what Ryan might add

10:10
Comment From NERD
I want Trout to pass Cabrera in WAR simply for the popcorn.gif aspect of it all again

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Trout passed Cabrera a little time back, but they’ve since flip-flopped again, which they’ll continue to do over the remainder of the year. It’s like when a running back breaks a record and then loses yardage on a carry. Time to break the record again!

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: But, right now, it looks like Trout and Cabrera will finish around similar levels, and it looks like the Tigers will make the playoffs and the Angels wont’. So it’ll be last year, all over again, expect without the two-win difference or whatever it was

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: so Cabrera would win easily

10:12
Comment From Terence
Do the Giants have a good enough combination of prospects to trade for a player who could help the team this year and going forward? Is there any reason they shouldn’t just go for it?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: being 40-48 is a pretty good reason

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: the system is depleted as it is. the big-league team isn’t that good

10:13
Comment From Moose
So, Gausman looks to be a pretty reliable arm out of the pen. Chances he stays there for the rest of this year?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’d be a good way to manage his innings while benefiting from his arm and also getting him exposed to the majors. I like the idea, but the Orioles themselves haven’t figured out their plan going forward, what with the Britton situation as well

10:14
Comment From Chris
BTW the USSMariner article comparing Seager and Franklin’s numbers was pretty cool made me happy as a M’s fan and i just traded Andrus amd myers for stanton now im using frankilkin at ss

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I should have read the rest of this comment in the queue

10:15
Comment From zack
The NL west is really, really full of mediocrity isn’t it?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: and Yasiel Puig’s BABIP over the last 16 games is just .468!

10:15
Comment From James
How much value do Brandon Beachy and Michael Pineda have in the 2nd half of the season?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: a small but real amount

10:16
Comment From Tom
Is Rickie Weeks back or have the last 5 weeks been a mirage?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t he do this exact same thing a year ago?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Weeks might just be a streaky player. Might be a difficult guy to motivate, but that’s just random speculation

10:17
Comment From Sean T.
Has there been any notion to try to document “quality starts” from a saber view? Wouldn’t WPA be a much better method of determining “quality start” versus 6+ IP,

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: The current definition sucks, but WPA has too much to do with game context, by which I mean using WPA would involve a team’s offensive performance as well as the pitcher’s performance

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: In Game 1, Team A scores ten runs in the first inning and the starter throws a perfect game. In Game 2, Team B scores the only run of the game in the bottom of the ninth, and the starter allows eight or nine baserunners. The starter from Game 2 would end up with the higher WPA

10:19
Comment From Barry
Bud Norris maybe a fit for Pittsburgh with Wandy possibly done for awhile?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: sure

10:19
Comment From Aaron
I haven’t been around the advanced stat scene very long, but is the way pitch framing has come onto the scene been the standard for other advancements in research. Basically, someone does research and proposes the results. Others are skeptical, do their own research and the original results are modified to be more accurate.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: That’s about the way things work, in baseball and in science. Sometimes, the original results are modified to be more accurate. Sometimes, they’re dismissed completely, depending. No one’s ever going to get it completely right and perfectly understood the first time

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: but advancements are widely embraced because advancements are exciting and awesome

10:23
Comment From Gabe
Biggest name moved before July 31st?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Jake Peavy or Matt Garza, depending on how you determine name value

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: “Schierholtz” has a lot of letters in it

10:23
Comment From Kyle
DJ Peterson has a .848 OPS with only a .263 BABIP. Surge of production incoming, or 84 PA not large enough of a sample size?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: 57 actual balls in play, for a college graduate in short-season baseball. Not even thinking about these statistics at this point

10:24
Comment From Blurnsball
Does the A’s calling up Grant Green to audition at 2B say anything about their willingness to pursue another middle infielder (i.e. Chase Utley)?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: It means they saw second base as a position that could use a change, and Green is an uncertain solution

10:25
Comment From Wobatus
Colby Rasmus has 3 WAR already and has provided about as much value as Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano. Kinda surprising, no?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Already surpassed 2011′s home-run total. But he’s getting a big boost from a UZR turnaround, which, well, I don’t know

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Last year, UZR/150 of 0. This year, +16

10:27
Comment From Sean T.
Do you think the Diamondbacks take the West over LAD?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: At this point I think the Dodgers take it by a nose, but check this out: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-W

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: This is going to be a fun three months, or a terrifying three months if you have a rooting interest

10:28
Comment From Guest
What pitcher threw, or throws, your single favorite pitch to watch?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Trevor Hoffman changeup

10:28
Comment From Timothy
The Braves need a third basemen. What would it take to get Kyle Seager?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: the minor leagues

10:29
Comment From Re. Statue:
Astros get Lidge reaction to Pujols homer.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: This is in response to the statue prompt from like an hour ago. I’m for it!

10:29
Comment From mick
I know it isn’t last season, but Trout seems to be getting unfairly ignored in the MVP discussion right now. Davis is sick, Miggy is ridiculous. But Trout is going to make another run at this thing.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. But now 2012 has set a precedent. Would be even easier to vote against Trout if the situation ends up similar to the way it was

10:30
Comment From zack
Has anyone been on more teams that Octavio Dotel?

10:30
Comment From Chris
Do you play Fantasy baseball?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, if I’m getting this question in 2005

10:31
Comment From Guest
Is anything known about Shelby Miller’s pitch count, or how he will be used (several 5-inning starts or a few unrestricted starts?)

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is public to my knowledge. Decent chance that this could be the 2013 Strasburg debate

10:32
Comment From zack
Are the rangers going to turn Profar into the next Ben Zobrist?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not — this is probably more about short-term needs — but that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Versatility is the new black, whatever the hell that means

10:32
Comment From Chris
Nick Franklin ROS stats couldnt find’em in Steamer or ZIPS?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: he should be good and not great

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: make a slash line out of that

10:33
Comment From Tom
More likely to reach 100 WAR – Albert Pujols or Mike Trout?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: oh jesus

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Pujols is at 86.7, Trout is at 15.8

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Pujols is 33, Trout is 21

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I have to go with Pujols. Trout has an awesome trajectory but he’s still so so far away

10:34
Comment From Timothy
How big of an impact do the last several starts before the trade deadline affect a players value? Thinking of Garza’s dominance lately.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: They probably affect it more than they should, is how I would put it

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: But a stretch, whether hot or cold, isn’t going to make or break a potential blockbuster

10:35
Comment From Guest
What improvements can Starlin Castro realistically make in the second half?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: all of them

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Man, he’s a bummer

10:36
Comment From Ned
Who’s in the AL ROY race?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Martin, Iglesias, Franklin, Straily…it’s not a hell of a pack

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Is Martin eligible?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like no

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: This could be Franklin’s to lose

10:40
Comment From Max
Would you rather have Duda on your team playing shortstop or Ortiz in centerfield?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: My actual realistic answer is Duda at shortstop because he’s younger but either way I’d have to question myself as the team’s general manager. How did I end up in this position?

10:41
Comment From mick
If you had to pick a defense only 3B, who do you pick: Arenado or Machado?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Machado and it’s spooky close

10:41
Comment From Kevin
Better ML Pitcher in 2014: Erasmo Ramirez or Taijuan Walker?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez

10:41
Comment From Tom
You keep saying bad teams are not that far off. I’m just curious what teams you think are far off?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Astros, Twins, maybe White Sox. But it doesn’t take a lot to look like a potential contender

10:42
Comment From Ed
Any thought about the ASG selections or do you care?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Care less every year. I do think there’s something to be written about trying to figure out what the ASG is. Who is it for?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I will write that!

10:42
Comment From Kevin
Haven’t really heard Oliver Perez’s name in trade rumors, but seems he’d be appealing to those in need of bullpen help, especially lefty. Personally, I think he should be the Reds’ top target. Think he will be moved?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s almost certainly outta there. Lefty, good, pitching well, rejuvenated veteran. Lots of probable suitors

10:44
Comment From Max
Jesus Montero for Ike. Who balks?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners, but maybe they shouldn’t

10:44
Comment From Guest
Do expect Hanley to revert to 2011-12 numbers, or continue to party like it’s 2009?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Signs are very promising that Ramirez is turning back the clock a few years

10:45
Comment From NMiller_WeTalkFantasySports.com
What do you make of 4 contending teams in the AL East? I for one picked Tampa to go to the World Series during the preseason

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I like the Red Sox the most and the Yankees have been fascinating all year long

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: One wonders how much of an upgrade Derek Jeter will actually be. Clearly, the Yankees haven’t missed their superstars *that* much, at least on the field

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to go ahead and get going because there’s a lot yet to get done

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I apologize for my deliberate pace, and for the questions and comments I didn’t get to. There are a lot of them! But I thank you for swinging by and participating and we’re going to do this again next Tuesday at the same time.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: There won’t be a Worst Of The Best this Friday,but look for the return next week as we reflect on the season’s first half, instead of just a week or two-week period

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks again everybody and have great days




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

6 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/9/13”

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  1. mike Martino says:

    any chance G. Springer gets a shot this year? If so, any projection?
    Thanks.

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  2. Tvators says:

    The whole in the division thing only applies to selling a young potential superstar that you’d have to see over and over and over and one who would have plenty of other options of team to be traded to…. Nate Schierholtz does not come close to this, if Pitt comes w/ best or even only package, Theo will pack Nate’s bags and drive him anywhere in the division and never ever think about it

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    • JN says:

      You’re right about the in division thing, but you are underestimating Nate’s value a bit. He is arb eligible after this year, so the Cubs can hang onto a pretty good starting RF at a decent salary. They won’t give him away.

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