Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/26/14

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. Dog fight outside my apartment!

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: The random kind, not the organized kind

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Anyhow, hey, ask all the fantasy questions you want. I’m not going to answer them though

9:10
Comment From STiVo
How does a better’s WPA change if he gets a hit, but a runner is subsequently thrown out at home to end the inning during the play? Does the batter get dinged for the entire negative WPA of the play?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question! Let me quickly investigate, by taking a look at Yasiel Puig’s recent running into a triple play

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that indeed the batter pays the price for the baserunner’s error, if it is indeed a baserunner’s error

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like Matt Kemp was dinged for Yasiel Puig being too aggressive on the basepaths

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: This is why I used to manually deal with WPA when I put together charts for Mariners games. The automated process works fine 99% of the time, but that other 1% can make a meaningful difference sometimes

9:12
Comment From Jim
Did you watch the Emmys at all?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:13
Comment From Andrew
Wade LeBlanc in the roation for the rest of the year for the angels? or do they get bartolo colon, or wandy Rodriguez

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Wandy Rodriguez?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: He had season-ending knee surgery

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think they really don’t want to pay Colon next year. I think this ends up a mix-and-match situation, with the Angels hoping that Shoemaker is about as good as his current K%-BB%

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: There’s only so much for them to do. The timing was awful and the magnitude was worse. I think they hang tight and go with what they’ve got in the postseason

9:15
Comment From Alan
Rank by career WAR; Baez, Bryant, Soler, Russell

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Crap. ok

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Descending order: Russell, Bryant, Soler, Baez

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: But I like ’em all

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’m an optimist in that way

9:16
Comment From Fuuuudddgggeeeee
Saw a piece in Providence Journal about MLB teams’ payroll correlating less and less to wins since ~2008. Any truth or tangible reason to this, or is it just small sample size (ie, the big market teams being better/worse over that time span)?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a small sample size. There is the factor where teams have increasingly realized the significance of having good players at low salaries, but over time, as front offices get more and more similar, then payroll is going to be a bigger factor in determining outcome. In theory, if all front offices end up identically smart, then the results are going to be about payroll and luck

9:17
Comment From Giggity
Thoughts on Tomas Telis? How will PT shake out with him and Chirinos?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Never heard of him before yesterday. The numbers indicate to me that he is not good

9:18
Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Jeff. Hypothetically, if you could swap the uncertainty of prospect performance for a guaranteed Dan Uggla career (or Bronson Arroyo for pitchers), are the any prospects you keep? More than 5?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I might keep the top 10 or 15 prospects, but yeah, otherwise, I think I’d take the security of 20+ career WAR

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t feel good about it, but I’d do it anyway

9:19
Comment From Andrew
Before he went down, was there any chance that Garret Richards would have won the Cy Young?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Call it < 5%. He had a chance, given a terrific September and some decline elsewhere, but that would’ve been a long shot. Lots of contenders behind Felix

9:22
Comment From Darth Stout
Is Jake Arrieta an “Ace” now? Only trails Felix and Kershaw in SP FIP.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: To me, I think “ace” implies a longer track record and proven durability, but I’m buying Arrieta as a legitimate bottom-half No. 1 starter

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Acehood ought to require something like 2-3 years to achieve

9:23
Comment From Andrew
Thoughts on Yank prospect Pat Vindette?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: How many prospects are 29 years old

9:24
Comment From McRib
Do you see Lawrie coming back and being at all useful for the rest of the regular season? He’s been such an annoyance to Jays fans like me :(

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: He might show up at the end for a week or two, but by that point, if the Jays are well and out of it, then they might instead just opt to shut him down. Don’t need to hurry back from an oblique injury if there’s nothing to play for

9:26
Comment From McRib
Does it appear Kipnis is still playing hurt? Is it really really stupid to play through an oblique injury?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Just realized that’s two in a row for you!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Kipnis said a month ago he’d be dealing with discomfort until the offseason. The numbers certainly suggest he isn’t feeling any better these days. He knows his body better than anyone, but I’m generally against playing through pain, particularly when it causes one to dramatically under-perform. I can’t pin all of Kipnis’ under-performance on the injury, but it’s at least an interesting link

9:28
Comment From GSon
Michael Pineda = becoming the kind of SP the Yankees envisioned when they stole him from the M’s or just a flash in the pan?..

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to say he’s becoming anything given that he has seven big-league starts since 2012, but the talent hasn’t disappeared and neither has the size, so Pineda ought to be pretty good for a while for however long he’s able to remain on a mound. I’m not sure how durable he’s going to be; it seems like there’s always something else going on

9:30
Comment From Kirk
What’s going on with Dustin Ackley?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: He’s actually making good contact instead of terrible contact. It would appear he’s turned a mechanical fix into greater confidence, but that’s easy to say in hindsight — the bigger question is how long this keeps up, since he’s done this before. It’s a positive that he’s been mostly a good hitter since last year’s second half

9:31
Comment From PieTraynee
Starling Marte has corrected some of his flaws over an admittedly small sample size recently. Is his ceiling that of a star player?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: He was a five-win player a season ago

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s already a borderline star player. His *ceiling*? There almost isn’t a ceiling

9:32
Comment From Guest
Have we reached the point where the Marlins just aren’t going to trade Stanton? I’d imagine a healthy Jose Fernandez would have answered that question for us this season.

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: On the contrary, there seems to be a lot of talk about how Stanton is going to be a difficult sign. So I think the Marlins try something in October/November, and then if that doesn’t work for them, then Stanton will be available on the market come winter meetings time

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s dealt in December or January

9:34
Comment From Hank G.
FanGraphs publishes game odds on each scheduled game. Do they also track the results of their predictions? Are those results available?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Appelman presumably has them somewhere. They are not publicly available although now you’ve made me curious

9:34
Comment From Andrew
would pitchers like Joe Blanton and Josh Towers be better suited to be a knuckle ball pitcher since they have better control?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: How do you know they’d have good control of knuckleballs?

9:35
Comment From Craig
Bartolo gets the Mets what?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: If anything, salary relief

9:35
Comment From _David_
Is it very possible or difficult to run searches for players whose numbers fall into a certain range of start x and also a certain range of stat y? How would I begin to learn how to do this?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: If I’m interpreting this correctly, then you can use the filters we have available on the leaderboards! http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:36
Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys
Is Keuchel ever going to be close to this good again?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a compelling reason to doubt him. Maybe he’ll be more of a 3-win pitcher than a 4-win pitcher, but this looks like legitimate improvement where I sit

9:39
Comment From Scooby
Is Kazmir hurt or just slumping? His season numbers still look great, but he’s had a rough patch these past several weeks. Do you think he will return to form?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a little bothered, just because of who he is, but there’s nothing obvious in his indicators, aside from a brief statistical decline. He hit some rough patches a year ago and he still finished strong, so I really want to give Kazmir and the A’s the benefit of the doubt, but let’s just say they didn’t trade for three starting pitchers for no reason

9:41
Comment From Guest
Tsuyoshi Wada has been a bright spot for the Cubs since the Samardzija-Hammell trade. What’s his future hold? Is he a guy the Cubs should hold onto going forward?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: His future doesn’t hold much, since he’s 34 in February, but in the short term, he’s a perfectly reasonable big-league starting pitcher. Call him a No. 3 or a No. 4. And to think he was re-signed to a minor-league contract!

9:44
Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys
Can Zach Walters be a viable major leaguer? His power has been tantalizing but SSS

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: How much do you like the idea of Mike Zunino as a non-catcher?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say this: Walters can be a viable major leaguer. He probably will not be a viable major-league starter, but his power is going to earn him several more opportunities

9:45
Comment From BoB LoBLaW
Will Dombrowski’s peeing contest with Beane hurt the Tigers overall

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how you’re looking at it. They obviously turned long-term value into short-term value, but the projections still love the Tigers and it doesn’t get much better than David Price. You can never guarantee a championship, but how much value do you place on improved odds of a trophy?

9:46
Comment From Thor hates Low Key guys
Is Arencibia any better than he was before his callup?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Why would he be?

9:48
Comment From Guest
trade between the angels and cubs, mike trout for bryant, baez and soler. who says no?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: This might sound crazy but I think the Angels. Over the next six years, Trout could have as much as $200 million of surplus value. That’s more than you should expect from three top prospects

9:50
Comment From Fowler
What should we expect from Wil Myers next season?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Last season, minus some BABIP

9:51
Comment From Vic Romano
Soler started this year in Rookie ball and now finds himself in the bigs. I don’t think that sort of rapid acceleration through a system happens very often. I’m trying not to set my expectations for him too high the rest of this season, but it’s difficult.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: He ended last year with a bunch of games in High-A. He’s still moved quickly, but let’s not make too much of the rookie-ball thing

9:52
Comment From _David_
I’m already tired of watching Chris Taylor…will Miller ever get another chance to start regularly?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Not until Taylor stops hitting singles

9:54
Comment From erghammer
Chris Carter–WTF?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Now *this* is how you sell out for power

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: 25% grounders, 54% fly balls

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: He’s swinging more than ever and trying to lift the ball more than ever. They’ll find his vulnerabilities again, but this is a 70-grade slugger on a hot streak

9:55
Comment From Brawn
Was at the M’s game last night and was watching from the bullpen. When Medina got sent in, all the other bullpen guys (led by Tom it looked like) got up and cheered him onto the field as he was running to the field. Is chemistry the reason for their bullpen success this year? 50% serious question

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: They also had really good bullpen chemistry in their shitty seasons

9:56
Comment From Guest
what moves do the Reds need to make in the offseason? blow it up or a couple major trades to stay competitive?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: They’re in a bad organizational situation. It’s time to start trading starting pitchers for longer-term value

9:57
Comment From BoB LoBLaW
Rusney Castillo-mania! Have Cuban-born players jumped the shark now?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The market’s correcting for players having been undervalued. We’ll see how the market responds to the next high-profile Cuban bust

9:57
Comment From Wandy?
How can I convince my wife to watch Breaking Bad with me?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: If she needs that much convincing, maybe it’s better to just watch it on your own?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: If you insist that she give it a shot before she writes it off, try doing nice things for her first. Call it a favor exchange

9:58
Comment From Transient Gadfly
Do the Madlib: the Orioles going (on defense) from Manny Machado to Chris Davis at 3b for the rest of the season is the same as [Name of Contending Team] replacing [Really Good Hitter] with [Really Bad Hitter].

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: How about the Angels going from Garrett Richards to Wade LeBlanc

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not *that* severe, but Davis would be an easier glove to swallow if it weren’t for his bat

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: what a weird sentence to have be true in 2014

10:00
Comment From Guest
There was recently an article on Fangraphs about Felix, Kershaw, and looking at their K%-BB% vs GB% in comparison to other pitcher seasons. It made me wonder if there would be any value in a stat that weights K%-BB% in some way using league K% and BB% averages for each season, as well as the run value of strikeouts and walks? Or is that just giving you a less useful FIP?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not totally clear on what you mean, but I will say that a few of us have repeatedly requested numbers like K%- and BB%-, to account for the changing eras

10:01
Comment From dkm
What the goddamn hell is with Stephen Vogt? When he was hitting .380 it seemed like he was the biggest regression candidate in the world, but he’s settled around .320/.348/.507, which is, what the hell

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: He’s hit .250/.271/.456 in August

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: So maybe this is your regression. But it takes time for regression to show up after a really hot beginning. I think he’s a decent hitter, and he’s a decently disciplined hitter, so he’s part of Oakland’s network of depth

10:02
Comment From Tom
Are teams’ physical health taken into account in FG’s playoff projections?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: We manually account for injuries and projected playing time, but if you mean do the odds know when a player is playing through pain, no, besides whatever projection effect there is from recent under-performance

10:03
Comment From Guest
with a second WC, how would you decide that it is time for your team to start over and try to make the extra push even though it mortgages the future (i.e. Reds)

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t sell a lot of the future unless I think there’s a good chance I’m building one of the best teams in baseball. The Reds aren’t in that position

10:04
Comment From Dave
What should the Jays do in the offseason? The core that team doesnt seem to have it in them to win persay. Alot of whining and sulking which has led to a collapse. I dont know if you saw our game against tampa on sunday, literally 1st and 3rd no outs in the 10th and both Reyes and Cabrera popped out on 2 pitches (followed by a Reimold K to end the game). That just summed this team up.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Find a starting pitcher, find an outfielder, repeat. A better catcher would be neat, too, but that isn’t so simple. You just can’t look at the Jays and ignore the injury effect. Of course they’re frustrated as a clubhouse right now — they’ve had a terrible August. The frustration, presumably, follows the losing, and isn’t causative

10:06
Comment From someGuy
Potential September call up that will have biggest impact RoS? Specifically in regards to the playoff race?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t think of many regulars who won’t be up until September

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: For all I know the answer’s Michael Saunders

10:07
Comment From Kyle
I’m a Rangers fan. What do I do?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Go outside and come back in March. Things aren’t this dreary. But right now the Rangers have one of the worst rosters I think I’ve ever seen. It’s almost all injuries. In theory, there will be fewer injuries next season, and that’ll make a whopper of a difference

10:08
Comment From benj
Does anyone in baseball have a scarier lineup than the Nationals right now?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: over the last month, no one’s had a better offense than the…Twins!

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: To answer your question, I still like the Angels, slump be damned

10:09
Comment From Matt
Convince me Garrett Richards isn’t just Edwin Jackson with luck? They generate similar amounts of Whiffs,F-Strike,Contact%, and Zone%.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Jackson has never come close to Richards’ K%-BB%

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: And Richards is a proven groundballer. Jackson should be better than he is. Richards was frustrating before 2014, but he’s turned a corner

10:11
Comment From 2015
What does an Iwakuma extension look like?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say maybe 2/$25m, with an option? Maybe that goes up to $30 million, but in 2016 he’ll be turning 35 in April

10:12
Comment From Ernie
Which team would see the most improvement if they were to switch leagues? Which team would suffer the most?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers would have to find space on the field for Victor Martinez

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Having trouble with the other side, since there are a bunch of mediocre DH situations

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly the Mariners could probably survive just fine compromising Morrison or Morales’ playing time

10:16
Comment From Stay Hungry
Should the Orioles try to work out a deal with the Rangers for Adrian Beltre?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Like, right now?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that works to the Rangers’ benefit. I don’t know how desperate the Orioles would be, so maybe they could make it worth Texas’ while, but they could almost certainly do better if they tried to sell Beltre in December. And that’s by no means a guaranteed path they follow

10:18
Comment From Who is Zorbist?
Do you see the Cubs and Rays lining up on an SP for middle IF swap? The Rays are loaded at SP as usual, but Tim Beckham and Hak Ju Lee don’t appear to be successors to Zobrist or Escobar anytime soon. When Matt Moore returns, someone is out.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays don’t actually have all that much SP depth, and they also did just trade for Nick Franklin

10:20
Comment From John
Whats going on with the Padres. Medica and Goebbert are the same age, so have they given up on Medica and moved to Goebbert? Medica has more power but Goebbert has more discipline?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t Medica get hit in the helmet a few weeks ago?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Right now they’re just seeing what they have. They probably have a good idea what they have in Medica. Goebbert hit the living crap out of the ball in Triple-A so it’s worth seeing what he has. It’s not like Medica is going to collapse from a slight lack of playing time down the stretch

10:22
Comment From _David_
If the extreme framing claims were proven somehow to be correct and Jose Molina were indeed a borderline hall of famer, wouldn’t MLB have to step in and do something? Maybe switch to robots?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe they’d keep things the way they are and see it as a reward of catcher talent.

10:23
Comment From Cubbie Blues
Kyle Schwarber, college hitter beating up inexperienced competition, or legit prospect?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: yes

10:23
Comment From Barney
Does it make sense for a bullpen to rent a proven closer on a year to year basis so the young guys don’t get arbitration save money?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: It makes sense in theory, although in reality closers aren’t that dependable, as this year has shown. Balfour, Johnson, Nathan…

10:24
Comment From Andrew
Mike Trout for Clayton Kershaw? Who says no?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Over the next six years, Trout will make about $50 million less than Kershaw, and he is a position player

10:25
Comment From Leland
How awesome would a Nationals-Mariners World Series be?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Very awesome, declares my bias!

10:25
Comment From James
Where do you believe the Marlins would be with Jose Fernandez? Given the inconsistency of the NL East outside of the Nats, a wild card would be realistic, right?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They’re only three games out of the wild card. Fernandez, by now, would have made about 17-18 more starts. They haven’t gotten shit from their replacements. Yeah, with Fernandez, they’re right there in the mix

10:26
Comment From Cubbie Blues
I know there’ve been articles on FG but I can’t find them now. What’s the bust rate on top 10-15 prospects? Is it higher for pitchers?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely higher for pitchers, but it kind of depends on how you define what a bust is, right?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Here are some helpful links: http://www.piratesprospects… and http://www.draysbay.com/201…

10:27
Comment From Andrew
with all of your information with advanced metrics and things of that nature, why haven’t you or Dave C. gotten a GM job?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: because we’re actually kind of stupid, relative to what insiders know and are able to research

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Dave is way smarter than me in terms of baseball knowledge and Dave has said time and time again that he’s too dumb to be an executive

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t used those words, but I paraphrased

10:29
Comment From Hrkac CIrcus
I’m holding on to that 4.4% chance the Marlins make the playoffs. There’s a lot of good craft beer in it for me. That’s just me being an idiot though, right?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Only if you lose something should the Marlins fall short

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: But otherwise there’s nothing wrong with risk-free hope

10:30
Comment From Who is Zorbist?
I thought of this while watching Kershaw with a no hitter in the 5ht the other night. I asked Dan this the other day, and didn’t really like the answer. “When does a no hitter become probable?” He said 50/50 entering the 9th.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid I agree with him :(

10:31
Comment From Doolittles beard
Hey Jeff, Should we see more lefty relievers as closers/setup men due to their ability to hold runners better than righties? One run can count for a whole lot toward the end of the game, and keeping base runners from taking extra bases seems like it could be pretty valuable.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Lefties would do a better job of keeping runners on first, but they’d put more runners *on* first, because they’d be facing a lot of righties and lefty relievers tend not to have good pitchers for opposite-handed hitters, which is why they’re relievers in the first place

10:31
Comment From Guest
If the Mariners win the AL West, does Felix win MVP?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Probably

10:33
Comment From Vic Romano
I would agree that acehood requires a longer track record than Arrieta’s. But how long does it take to lose? How much longer until Verlander “officially” loses that status, or maybe more accurately, when did he lose it?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Losing it probably requires…a down season, and then enough of the next season to demonstrate that there isn’t a bounce-back

10:33
Comment From THE average sports fan
Think the Cubs can unlock something in Jacob Turner?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they unlocked something in Jake Arrieta, but I still wouldn’t bet on it

10:34
Comment From J
If you had to guess right now, who do you think will have the highest WAR for the Cubs in 2017 and is it higher or lower than 7?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Russell and lower. 7 is crazy high

10:36
Comment From Art Vandelay
300 plate appearances in, is it possible Danny Santana actually did take a step forward?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I just really don’t like that profile. You can’t totally dismiss what he’s done to this point, because he’s been a hell of a lot better than I imagined, but I guess maybe he’s a little like Yangervis Solarte? I can see him as a decent regular but if he comes apart it ought to surprise no one

10:37
Comment From Chris
Do other teams routinely make AAA-level pitchers (i.e., Miles Mikolas) look like aces as often as the Mariners do?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: The bad offenses do, yeah. Fans of almost every team think their team makes bad pitchers look good, and that’s because fans of every team remember when their team made a bad pitcher look good

10:37
Comment From Who is Zorbist?
What are the chances the Rays win their appeal? It sure seems to me they are in the right.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: A few weeks ago I would’ve said 0%, but then we had a protest upheld! This is a new era!

10:38
Comment From c
Are the Red Sox good next year?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’re competitive

10:38
Comment From jocephus
who, or whom, do you think wins the centrality of the NL?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Brewers

10:39
Comment From SteveV
Is Russell’s prospect star way brighter than Profar’s?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect. Russell’s close, but I think Profar still would’ve gotten the edge

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Or do you mean right now?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, Russell shines brighter

10:40
Comment From Stephen
Will the Cubs be the best team in the NL Central next year?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: No, but they’ll be close

10:41
Comment From Guest
I know Choo was playing hurt, but where were the WALKS? Do you think he’ll return to an OBP machine next year?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: His discipline was the same as ever. But pitchers threw him more pitches in the zone, because they felt he was more worth challenging, given his injuries and under-performance

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Choo walked less and less over the course of the season, but I don’t think that reflects anything wrong with his eye

10:42
Comment From Guest
Think Domingo Santana can get 500PA with Houston next year? His walk rate has been climbing in AAA, but still striking out.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’ll be ready for that

10:43
Comment From Art Vandelay
About Pineda, his velocity is down a significant amount, but he seems to have changed his approach, throwing more cutters and changeups. His strikeouts are definitely down, and that could definitely be due to SSS, but couldn’t it also be related to a change in his approach?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: His velocity was good the other day. He’s still fastball/slider

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: He’s pounded the zone more, hence fewer strikeouts and fewer walks. On balance, this is good for him

10:44
Comment From Guest
What’s your favorite way to eat steak?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: slowly

10:45
Comment From jay
Jeff, What (if any) details do you remember about the last time you played fantasy baseball (team name, guys on your roster etc)??

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I drafted Roberto Alomar with my first pick in 2002

10:45
Comment From Guest
Do the Angels have the stuff to trade for Stanton?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

10:46
Comment From Gila Monster
Could you see Votto getting moved by 2016? His contract is turning into an albatross given his knee problems and the sheer size of it. But the kinda of albatross that would kill the Red, but interest the Yankees for example

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see how he comes back first, to see if he’s even moveable at all

10:46
Comment From THE average sports fan
Do you blame Stanton for not wanting any part of the Marlins long term? The Marlins should have zero credibility with anybody.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Right. Why would you ever trust them?

10:47
Comment From Tim Lincecum
Any possibility the Mets could put together a package for Stanton that doesn’t include Wheeler?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: They’d get blown out of the water

10:47
Comment From THE average sports fan
The Phillies catch tons of heat for their handling of the trade deadline (deservedly so). What exactly have the Rockies done right?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies didn’t really have much they could do, and they need to sort out their front-office situation before they make franchise-altering transactions

10:48
Comment From KD
Would the Cubs be good trade partners for Stanton given their concentration

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ll be up there

10:48
Comment From Locke
What do you make of Billy Butler’s recent resurgence? Is first half or second half performance closer to his actual talent?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t we know his true talent? He’s forever been about a 120 wRC+ hitter. Lately, he’s been a 120 wRC+ hitter

10:49
Comment From Mookie Monster
Thoughts on James Paxton’s future? Can he be legit #2 behind El Felix?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I like him more than Dave does

10:49
Comment From THE average sports fan
Who takes the bullet if Tigers miss playoffs?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Brad Ausmus for some reason

10:50
Comment From Dave M.
Is a +5 run defender in the infield making more plays than a +5 run defender in the outfield? It seems that extra infield plays are more likely to prevent singles, while outfield plays are more likely to prevent extra base hits.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, a play in the outfield is more valuable, generally

10:50
Comment From Guest
Totally agree with you on Arrieta not qualifying to be an Ace yet, but Jose Fernandez has to be an exception to the 2-3 year rule, right?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: We can make an adjustment here:

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: A player like Arrieta has a history of being mediocre, so it takes longer to prove that he’s now awesome. Fernandez has never not been awesome. It takes less time to become an ace if you never struggle

10:51
Comment From Guest
Kole Calhoun: 138 wRC+. Miguel Cabrera: 139.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Calhoun’s good

10:52
Comment From Robert
Would you argue that the Angels are better off sitting tight with their rotation now, and using the $ they would give to Colon towards someone like McCarthy in the offseason? Especially considering how little time is left in the year

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I honestly don’t think much of an upgrade is available for them. When rosters expand in September, I think they should turn every fifth game into almost a bullpen start

10:52
Comment From Jeff Arthur
A lot of writers are saying Betts and Bradley Jr are being squeezed out. Are they, or are the Red Sox just acquiring assets for pitching trades?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not being squeezed out, but the Red Sox have obviously given themselves options. It would surprise nobody to see one or both of those players get dealt in the winter

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I need to get out of here and try to write something about Adam Wainwright

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Enjoy your holiday weekends!



Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Bow and Arrow
Guest
Bow and Arrow
2 years 30 days ago

I might be able to root for a Mariners World Series run but I cannot root for it to end on a Rodney Bow and Arrow.

Nate
Guest
Nate
2 years 30 days ago

As an M’s fan, I couldn’t agree more.

Who is Zorbist?
Guest
Who is Zorbist?
2 years 30 days ago

I’m just happy the Rangers suck so I don’t have to deal with Moose ears and necklaces with special powers.

Craig Calcaterra
Guest
Craig Calcaterra
2 years 29 days ago

Next time give us a heads up on where you are at. No sense in me writing questions at 1:30 if you are answering questions from 12:45.

bookbook
Guest
2 years 29 days ago

No sense in you writing questions at 1:30. (I suspect that’s a true statement for every fangraphs chat in the past year or more.)

Jimmer
Guest
Jimmer
2 years 29 days ago

Exactly. Even if you post questions in the queue before the session starts, like some of the hosts do open the queue early, there’s zero guarantee you get a question answered…waiting much longer to ask doesn’t help as they go through the loads of questions that will be in there waiting for them to look at.

wpDiscuz