Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/6/13

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens, I think we’re starting on time.

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: I better publicize that this is live now.

9:00
Comment From Eminor3rd
DELAY! We’ can;t start on time!

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: I am not prepared for this either!

9:01
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Jeff Sullivan and the chat long Victory lap

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I am amazed myself

9:01
Comment From Josh
Can we stick to actual baseball in this chat? I am so sick of the extracurriculars. Was watching a fantastic Dodgers-Cardinals game last night and the announcers wouldnt focus on the game. So frustrating

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: No we probably can’t

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes it’s fun to talk about other things

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, I came here while a third of the way through Jeff Passan’s latest on A-Rod. Some people are so upset.

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Which, you know, that’s fine, it’s been a long and astonishing fall for that guy. But have we really learned anything new?

9:04
Comment From ar
what would trout get on the open market this winter? 10/400?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Trout’s 22 tomorrow. Alex Rodriguez hit the market at 25. That’s probably our closest comparison

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say maybe 10/$300 million. That seems like a reasonable compromise

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: It’s insane to me that that contract structure could be considered reasonable, by the way

9:06
Comment From Billy Beanes fiber
Why does Kevin Towers suck? J-Up and Chris Johnson could’ve been batting with Paul Goldschmidt. Come on.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, no one’s ever really thought of Chris Johnson as much of a loss

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: If there’s really something to him, people will only now begin to appreciate it

9:07
Comment From JEB
NL: Braves, Pirates, Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, these are teams

9:07
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Masterson is an ace now, correct?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: He’s Cleveland’s

9:07
Comment From zack
Does Justin Smoak not completely suck? Has he somehow gained increased physical strength?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t completely suck, no. He walks more and he makes more consistent quality contact. He still doesn’t hit for enough contact or power to be *good*, but this is still a massive improvement, for him.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Smoak needs to get to a .200 ISO or thereabouts. That’d be a pretty good first baseman

9:09
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Thank God that A-Rod is appealing the suspension. Hopefully it will detract from preseason football coverage.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: That roided-up monster! America never tolerates its roided-up monsters!

9:10
Comment From Rags
IF ALL THE RAINDROPS WERE LEMON DROPS AND GUM DROPS OH WHAT A RAIN IT WOULD BE!

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Everything and everybody would die

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: but hey free candy

9:10
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
so how much did you get paid to write that piece jinxing the Braves (mostly kidding….mostly….)

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think it would be fascinating to be able to spend a day believing genuinely in jinxes

9:11
Comment From zack
Does Jeter play again this year?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Some, yeah

9:11
Comment From gson
Amazing yourself doesn’t sound like a very high bar to cross..

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: And earlier I made toast! Wow!

9:12
Comment From EKNPDX
How do you view Jacoby Ellsbury’s impact on a team. I’m just not sold yet on him being worth the kind of financial commitment he’ll command as a FA.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a little like if Michael Bourn had one weird fluke season in his track record before hitting FA. With Ellsbury, teams need to forget about that, but he did set himself a 9-win ceiling. What’s really apparent is that he’s just good at most things, and he should be a star-level player for a few years for a team who appreciates defensive and base-running contributions.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Because so much of what he does is “invisible” people might not like him as much as they ought to. Plenty of front offices will bow out, but Ellsbury will get paid and Ellsbury will probably be worth it

9:15
Comment From Mike
Enjoyed the victory lap piece. If you were Fredi, how would you approach the last 7 weeks of the season so as to maximize your chances of keeping everyone fresh for the postseason without compromising a clubhouse of (presumably) competitive athletes? What about using opportunities to develop young talent?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: In the immediate I wouldn’t change very much, but I’d plan to take full advantage of expanded September rosters, presuming by that point the lead hasn’t perilously dwindled. Regulars remain regulars and starters remain starters. Just, there would be more time off. And I’d communicate this point with all the players, who would probably be appreciative. The season is long and hard.

9:16
Comment From Billy Beanes fiber
Wil Myers… is it possible, as he’s doing now, that he can maintain a higher babip during his career?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: You mean like his current .378? No

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: In the minors it was .353, which is above-average. I could see Myers being maybe a .310-.320 guy, but nothing really extreme

9:18
Comment From ball hair how bout a stike here!
Is Ryan Madson ever an effective reliever again?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not for very long, reliably. Relievers, man

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting, though, to have a case of a guy for whom Tommy John wasn’t just a formality. I think many of us take that surgery for granted

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard! It’s not 100%!

9:19
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Are the Dodgers stil the favorite to win the NL?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: With a healthy Ramirez and a healthy Puig, they’re probably right up there with anyone else

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: We have them projected as the NL’s best team the rest of the way http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

9:20
Comment From JEB
What do YOU want to talk about Jeffrey?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I was just up on Mount St Helens the other day and it was nice

9:20
Comment From Jeff
So what the heck is going on with Prince Fielder? His OPS is around 790 right now. Did he already forget how to hit?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Well the first thing is we can see his strikeout gains from last year haven’t sustained

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: He’s back up to his Brewers levels, and that’s probably meaningful

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect this is just an extended slump, where Fielder is producing below his true talent, but I also suspect he’s entered his decline phase, which people have been predicting

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I think Fielder’s still a good hitter, a better hitter than this, but I think more and more people are going to notice the difference between him and Cabrera at the plate

9:23
Comment From Mick Jagger
have teams offered you jobs? what teams?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I have interviewed twice, but not for a long time. I have been asked to interview once, but I didn’t want to. Working for a team does not appeal to me in the least, not at this point in my life.

9:24
Comment From Dan
Concerned about Cabrera’s injury? He couldn’t even run when playing last night. Walked to first every time he put the ball in play.

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I have faith that it’ll be properly managed down the stretch. The Tigers aren’t idiots

9:25
Comment From Rated Rookie
Brett Lawrie! The regimen Red Bull and not-being injured are finally paying off.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: He’s been really good! For 11 games!

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: 6/10 – 6/22, 2012: 11 games, 1.138 OPS

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I WILL RUIN YOUR PARADE

9:27
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Let’s say that you lived in some alternate reality where just a player’s production = actual value. Would you look to sell Prince Fielder to someone that hasn’t yet re-calibrated what they think Prince Fielder is?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’d ask around but I’d also be willing to wait for him to improve

9:27
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
This Kluber kid seems like the real deal. He was great last night in against a Tigers lineup with Miggy.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s kind of hard to fake your way to what Kluber has already accomplished

9:27
Comment From zack
If the Yankees miss the playoffs and they probably will, will everyone blame AROD?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:27
Comment From Rated Rookie
Man, I love Eric Hosmer.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: And finally there’s a reason to

9:29
Comment From NJQ
What is something that is interesting you in baseball right now?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez

9:29
Comment From gson
Disaster in Cleveland for Indians fans?.. or just another bump in the road?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: A bad game against a better team

9:29
Comment From bdhudson
Jeff Passan seems a bit whiny.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: He is a passionate man

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: or he knows how to come off like a passionate man

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes I am envious of those with an obvious, intense, undying passion

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: As opposed to just general levels of interest

9:31
Comment From Billy Beanes fiber
Why has Nick Markakis’ power gone bye bye?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: He’s never been a big power guy and he’s just going through some power-related under-performance. He’s better than his .098 ISO

9:31
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
I am upset that the Yankees will not have A-rod’s contract count against the luxury tax if he gets suspended. THAT is something to be a bit annoyed about.

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: It’s one of the rules with contracts, though. It’s not like it’s a loophole and it’s not like A-Rod probably doesn’t deserve a massive suspension. And, of course, the Yankees didn’t make A-Rod get involved with Tony Bosch. I know it’s a bummer that the Yankees could have an escape route here but it’s perfectly sensible and if you want to laugh at a team, laugh at the Angels. They have dead money too

9:34
Comment From Anon21
Andrelton Simmons: 50 Defensive Runs Saved in 157 career games. At this point, he seems to be past the conversation about Brendan Ryan and J.J. Hardy and into the conversation with Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, no?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Simmons UZR/150: 26.4

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: next-best since 2012: 13.5

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s time to wonder if Simmons is one of the all-time greats. But, of course, we’ll see how he ages, since his defense isn’t going to get any better, presumably

9:35
Comment From Scouty McScoutington
Please grade your curveball on a 20-to-80 scale.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: 25, could be 35 with more work

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Even when it’s good, I telegraph it

9:37
Comment From Eddie
Who is Jason Heyward?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: In a way, kind of Justin Upton with better defense

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: But they’re equally talented and equally maddening

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: During last winter’s Upton rumors, I got tired of trying to figure out what he was. I’m tired with Heyward as well. Pick something!

9:38
Comment From Dewey
What the heck? McCann is still under 30 yrs old?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: And so is Jonathan Broxton

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: it’s like, what

9:39
Comment From Wily Mo Yen Mo Problems
Even though A-Rod won’t be getting paid when the appeals process ends, does that money still go towards the Yankees luxury tax?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I believe not

9:40
Comment From Justin
Lets talk about Chad Gaudin

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: And *he’s* only 30!

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Debuted when he was 20. Been around forever and still lots of miles left in that arm

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: More to your point though he’s not good

9:40
Comment From LarryA
I wish batting order mactually meant way more than it does. It would lead to much more fun arguments and way more second guessing

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it is kind of too bad it’s such a small factor, but then from that we can learn some pretty invaluable lessons

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: The fact that it doesn’t matter that much is kind of amazing

9:41
Comment From Prince Fielders nipple hairs
What do you think the Tigers will do with Nick Castellanos when they bring him up? Do they finally move Miggy off of 3rd?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: At this point they presumably see him as an outfielder but they’ll re-visit the Cabrera situation when Castellanos actually forces his way up

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He won’t have forgotten 3B

9:42
Comment From NJQ
When are the Dodgers going to lose?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Within the next few days

9:43
Comment From Jay
Bigger villain: A-Rod or Bonds?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Recency bias tells me A-Rod, but these days A-Rod’s just gotten sad. Bonds would’ve made for a better boss fight

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, through everything, Bonds produced and took possession of a hallowed all-time record. That really pissed people off

9:44
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
The royals are 4 games back from a playoff spot…..

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’re certainly justifying Dayton Moore’s stance. But they’re still a playoff longshot

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: seven AL teams have higher odds of playing after the regular season

9:45
Comment From Billy Beanes fiber
Kole Calhoun… bright MLB future ahead?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, no

9:46
Comment From Eddie
If you were a Cubs fan, would you root for them to lose at this point?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s my stance on rooting for losses:

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s great, of course, to get a higher draft pick. Maybe that pick is protected. There’s more talent available, and more money available. This stuff is obvious.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: But if your team loses a lot, that means it’s because the players are performing worse. Many of those players are potential long-term building blocks. Worse performances by them leads to worse future projections. If the Cubs were to finish *strong*, that probably means some of the younger guys made stronger contributions. Which would make their future prospects appear more sunny. Think about it: would you rather have Rizzo end with a .750 OPS or an .850 OPS, for example?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like rooting for losses. But there’s something to be said for losses not being that bad as an alternative, at some point

9:48
Comment From bird
Speaking of Passan, how does the FG/saber community view Yahoo!/ESPN/ETC writers? Passan seems to have come around to the saber world.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we have one general group opinion. We all have our individual tastes, and all individual writers write articles of varying quality. Everybody serves a purpose and I know that Passan in particular has been pretty saber-friendly, so that’s neat.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t always agree with his particular tone and style, but that’s who he is and what he does and I think that’s great. Lots of people disagree with us

9:50
Comment From rusty
If they put you in charge of identifying objective criteria to determine the season MVP, would you submit a list or decline? What would you put on such a list?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I’d probably decline. Unless they paid well.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: There are too many variables, and I don’t think people want an objective MVP award that’s cut and dry. People want those arguments.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: My only request would be for people to shut up about playoff contenders and non-playoff contenders

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: It’s really god damned hard to produce on a bad team

9:52
Comment From JEB
Who is your favorite young player to watch, Harper, Trout, Machado, Puig, someone else?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Felix because Felix still counts

9:52
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
How often do you and Dave Cameron hang out in real life?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: He lives in North Carolina, so, not often. But at least once a year and we talk often

9:52
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
After his previous start, what do you think King Felix will do tonight?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: really good things

9:52
Comment From Spencer
In baseball, how much could a schedule do to influence a team’s results? In football, with their structuring and “competitive balance” strategy, the schedule seems almost solely responsible for a team going 9-7 or 11-5. But I’m curious about its effects in baseball. The Braves started the season with a home-heavy, easy schedule, and won a lot of games. They followed that with a LOT of road games, mostly against good teams, and played at about .500. Now they have 7 games against winning teams left RoS, with lots of home games, and they’re winning a lot. Their high’s and low’s seem almost perfectly correlated to their schedule. Perhaps that is why they’ll have a victory lap to end the season.

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: In short spurts, the baseball schedule matters, and in certain instances a team will have a harder or easier schedule than another team because of particular division lopsidedness. But at the end of the year most of the discrepancies will balance out so it’s not a major factor

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: it’s probably a relatively unexplored factor, but it is what it is. As long as we have unbalanced schedules, we’re going to have..unbalanced schedules.

9:54
Comment From Shark Mapiro
What on earth is Scott Kazmir going to get as a free agent this year? Will it be cheap enough for the Indians to keep him?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t wait to find out

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: If Joe Blanton got 2/$15 million…

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I think Kazmir settles in a similar area

9:55
Comment From JEB
What team do you want to see make it to the post season but you don’t think they will?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: :(

9:56
Comment From George
Allen Craig got thrown out at home *again* last night!

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: A few people told me about this on Twitter. And again, it’s mostly because the defense made an amazing play!

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Craig can’t catch a break! Except for all of the breaks that he catches

9:57
Comment From Guest
Alex Wood drawing Chris Sale comps… Fair?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Not unfair

9:57
Comment From John
Doesn’t the MLBPA have to temper its defense of Arod due to the fact that many of its members support stricter penalties?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: The members also support consistency of discipline. It’s obviously a tricky situation but the union already said it wouldn’t defend a player unless it thought the player had a compelling argument for defense. I think they’ll be fine so long as the argument is that A-Rod doesn’t deserve to be suspended three times as long as Braun, not that I know anything about the evidence MLB has

9:59
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Why do people love Iwakuma? He gives up a ton of homers in a pitcher’s park.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: And Cliff Lee strikes our fewer batters than Matt Harvey. Everybody has things they could do better

10:00
Comment From Rudy
What’s your theory on why G.Stanton is having such a crappy (at least by his standards) season?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Injury and getting pitched around

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: His Zone% is among baseball’s lowest. That doesn’t excuse everything, but he’s been pitched differently and I’m sure that’s some kind of factor

10:01
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Am I crazy for thinking the Nationals are still the best team in the NL?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes.

10:02
Comment From rusty
Favorite unheralded young starter this year?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez counts in my book

10:02
Comment From Rated Rookie
What does Taijuan Walker need to work on before he is a compelling SP option for Seattle?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Figuring out where his non-fastballs are going

10:02
Comment From Sean
What do you make of Kluber? Is he ace level now or is there still going to be an adjustment period he will eventually have to pass?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: No, he’s not ace-level, but I have to believe he’s a pretty capable #2

10:03
Comment From Slammin Salmon
Trout has been walking a lot more recently; do you think it’s a conscious decision by other teams to pitch around him?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, his Zone% is down quite a bit. Not really much of a surprise

10:04
Comment From Kris
In regards to Smoak sucking: Lookout Landing ?@LookoutLanding:
Over the past calendar year, Justin Smoak has a higher wOBA (.362) than Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Kendrys Morales, Evan Longoria.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: With a .328 BABIP. That’s the thing.

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Smoak is slow and usually we don’t buy this kind of BABIP from a slow first baseman. You could try to explain it, but most of the time, these players regress. Smoak either needs to prove this is his new level, or he needs to continue making other improvements

10:07
Comment From rusty
Clint Dempsey to Seattle was the surprise move around the trade deadline

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I am beginning to find out who Clint Dempsey is!

10:07
Comment From John Oleruds Unnecessary Helmet
Any chance David Wright comes back early from his hammy issue?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Why would he?

10:07
Comment From bird
Brett Lawrie finally coming around?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t do this to yourself

10:07
Comment From Travis Sniders Pedo-Stache
Lord Farquhar closer for the rest of the year?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Odds-on favorite

10:07
Comment From zack
More shocking performance this year: LIriano or Kazmir?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Kazmir because at least Liriano was pitching recently

10:08
Comment From Rags
I want day games! What am I supposed to do at work when this chat ends?!?

10:08
Comment From zack
Has anyone figured out Jhoulys Chacin’s insane home run prevention?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Have to assume it’s nothing until there’s more reason to believe otherwise

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: He’s never had this ability before

10:08
Comment From rusty
It’s a shame the MLBPA is taking all this stick for wanting the league to operate within the bounds of the contract it signed, but I guess I should have seen it coming.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’m pretty sure most Americans want Alex Rodriguez in jail

10:09
Comment From Emmett
Do you think this run by the AL Central teams means they aren’t in as weak a division as everyone thought? Or is it just a fluke?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a weak division, and the Tigers are really good, but any time you have this kind of three-way simultaneous hot streak, yeah, that part is a flukey part

10:09
Comment From _David_
Didn’t Wilhelmsen make his command adjustments in the minors in 2011 or am I remembering wrong?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: He was wild in the majors, then he was wild in the minors, then he came up and was randomly not wild in the majors. It was weird

10:10
Comment From Bill
Is it just me or does it seem like nobody’s really talking about Stephen Strasburg underachieving this year?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still been incredible. It seems like he’s making an effort toward getting some more “quicker outs” which would explain the lower strikeouts and the higher grounders. I’ll be interested to see what he does in 2014 after this year is under his belt

10:12
Comment From High O Silver
I’d love to see Profar get more PT in Tex. How do you see the loss of Cruz shaking out as far as PT for Profar?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I think Profar plays a little more often but then I think Texas makes a waiver deal

10:13
Comment From zack
Could you see the Mariners overpaying for a free agent like Nelson Cruz this offseason?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:13
Comment From Cream
Jeff- to what do you attribute the seemingly low projections going forward for the Braves (26-23)? In light of your most recent column, do you agree with this regression?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’d have to really dig in to give you a proper answer, probably

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: But: remember, the projections didn’t love the Braves before the year, and they’re projected to be about the same now, minus Tim Hudson

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still projected to be all right, and I imagine the projection isn’t too far off. Maybe a little low, but those systems are smarter than I am

10:15
Comment From LarryA
Is Brett Lawries troubles mostly mental? Hes been doing much much better recently

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s probably the case

10:15
Comment From Brett
Do the Red Sox call up Bogaerts to fill their 3B hole like the Orioles did with Machado or do they just stay pat with the platoon they have now?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re going to watch Bogaerts closely at 3B in the minors to see if he could cut it in the bigs

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s something they haven’t closed the door on

10:16
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
I still think the Yankees will find a way into the playoffs. You agree?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:16
Comment From _David_
Even if Smoak were a well above average player, doesn’t he have old player skills that will erode quickly, especially when the borderline power fades?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: The old-player skills label is applied too broadly. It asserts with confidence that we know how a guy will age, when we absolutely do not

10:17
Comment From Milhouse
Still fine to trust Cliff Lee? Is the phil’s bad energy bringing him down?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: He is exceptionally good

10:18
Comment From Kevin
Didn’t Michael Bourn have a weird fluke season last year before his FA? He hit 9 homers and had an ISO more than 20 points above his career average.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Which is a far, far cry from 32 dingers and a 9.1 WAR

10:18
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Your chats move at a glacial pace. Explanation?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I look up most of my answers instead of going off the top of my head because why would you want me to do the latter?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: And do you understand how slowly glaciers move?

10:19
Comment From _David_
Is Arod’s career good for baseball?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Overall yes

10:19
Comment From Jah
Nova – hot streak or a legitimate mid rotation arm?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: He’s good

10:19
Comment From Maxamuz
Tim Lincecum was horrible during his first start after throwing 148 pitches in his no-hitter, but if you remove that outing, he has recorded a 1.17 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with 28 strikeouts over 23.0 innings over his other three starts. Since May ended, Lincecum has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of 11 outings.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah this is going to be a fascinating free agency

10:20
Comment From Lukas
How do you think Flores will perform now that he’s finally been called up to the Mets?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Passably but not super well

10:20
Comment From The Oriole Bird
So Bud Norris’s name is David Stefan Norris. That was shocking!

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: That *is* shocking!

10:21
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Would a fair comp for Yan Gomes be a better defensively Kelly Shoppach?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Gomes makes way more contact

10:21
Comment From tootthekazoo
Do you think Tom Wilhelmsen will still be a closer/reliever when he ends back up in MLB?

10:21
Comment From Guest
So Tom Wilhelmsen is starting for the Rainiers today… Wha?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t looked at Twitter, but I’m guessing this is an opportunity to just get him to work on his pitches over a longer outing. Stephen Pryor got a start in the minors this year, too. They could re-visit Wilhelmsen as a starter but I don’t think they’re going to do that

10:23
Comment From Sam
Do the Rays have any kind of hope at catcher? Do they trade Price for one?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they specifically look to trade Price for a catcher, but sometime soon they’re going to look for a longer-term solution

10:24
Comment From Wandai Wrection
When do we see a Seager extension? need to get that guy locked up for another 10 years

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: This winter

10:24
Comment From Paul
Chris Perez -.858 WPA last night. Any comments?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball can be super intense

10:24
Comment From Sam
Where does Kluber fit into a rotation ideally?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: 3

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: 4 if you’re lucky

10:24
Comment From Patrick B.
Better team in 3 years, the Angels or the Astros

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: oh my

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I think…the…Astros. !

10:25
Comment From Jim
Tigers are first in pitching WAR and first in wRC+. Best team in baseball?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I think so, but there’s an argument

10:25
Comment From Alex
Why is ARod being suspended for 215 games when everyone else is being suspended for 50? Even if it is his “2nd offense” shouldn’t that only be 100 games?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: This is why the union is going to try to defend him

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: But there’s a belief MLB has evidence that A-Rod led people to Biogenesis, and that he tried to interfere with the investigation. That’s bad!

10:26
Comment From Guest
I’m really disappointed in these chats, I’ve been attending them every week and my favorite team continues to suck.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: This will build character

10:26
Comment From Juan Juan
Does a foul ball count as a Swinging Strike?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Foul tips do though

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: at least in most places

10:27
Comment From Guest
How long until we can say Jose Fernandez is an ace?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: 0 days, depending on how you define “ace”. People have different definitions

10:27
Comment From Mitch
I have been hearing rumors of Texas aquiring Willingham when he comes off the DL. Do you see this happening? What kind of return do the Twins get?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: A lot of people are going to be talking about that and the Rangers look like a promising destination. The Twins would probably come away with a B-prospect

10:29
Comment From Marty
True or False- Next 3 years Jose Fernandez > Matt Harvey.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: False

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe in one of the three years

10:29
Comment From Dewey
What team would give up a draft pick to sign Kendrys Morales?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect he’s staying where he is

10:29
Comment From Ryan
Would you rather risk Free Agency dollars on Nelson Cruz or Tim Lincecum?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Lincecum, without question

10:30
Comment From Dude
What’s your beef with the Angels?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a Mariners fan and the Angels are annoying to me

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: You can tell I’m a Mariners fan because of all the Mariners questions I accept!

10:30
Comment From gareth
Cleveland and Detroit are closer that most people think. Stars and scrubs versus solid squad.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Currently separated by 15.5 WAR. Obviously that’s not everything, but that’s a whole lot of significance

10:31
Comment From Tom
Shouldn’t the Pirates have collapsed by now?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: No because they are good!

10:31
Comment From Mark Prior
One player who you’d like to see get a career do-over

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Ryan Anderson

10:32
Comment From bcc
Do the Rangers make it to the post season this year?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: as long as you count the one-game playoff as the postseason

10:33
Comment From josh
at what age do baseball writers enter their decline phase?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: mid 30s

10:33
Comment From MJ
Re: Lawrie – Before this hot streak began there were images on Jays blogs showing he’s gone back to a more upright stance at the plate. This mechanical adjustment plus return to health could be fueling the improvement, rather than a random hot streak…

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, that could be the case. Or it could not. Players are constantly making adjustments and sometimes they correlate to more success, but the only answer — the only answer — is giving this more time.

10:34
Comment From Sam
Cubs/Padres: Who makes the playoffs first, and when will that be?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs, 2 years

10:34
Comment From LarryA
Is a run scoring GIDP a positive WPA or negative, or does it depend on the situation?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Depends

10:34
Comment From Eddie
Why doesn’t UZR control for defensive positioning? Doesn’t that reduce its predictive power?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think the argument is that defenders are mostly responsible for their positioning. It’s part of skill

10:35
Comment From Donnie
What could the Yankees have reasonably gotten for Phil Hughes in July? Did they make a mistake in keeping him?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Not very much, so probably not, no

10:35
Comment From Boba
Mike Trout for Stanton and Fernandez…who hangs up first?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins

10:35
Comment From Andrew
How much does his Stanton HR celebration contribute to your liking of Fernandez?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: It’s mostly his talent

10:36
Comment From Josmil Pinto
Do you know who I am?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: absolutely not

10:36
Comment From Trek or Wars?
Original Star Wars trilogy > any Star Trek > second Star Wars trilogy. Agree or disagree?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I cannot fathom having an opinion on this

10:36
Comment From Josh
BTW the Wilhelmsen thing is that he is going to start and throw 2 innings and then Paxton comes in. Probably just want to get him two clean innings

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you, Josh! That makes sense to me

10:36
Comment From Chris Davis Arms
Is it true that if you don’t use it you ‘lose it’?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: With some things

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: But not with, say, insurance

10:37
Comment From Mattdawg
Who has a better shot to rebound: Sabathia or Pujols? Or are both irrevocably headed to declinesville?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia

10:37
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Can you believe the Mets passed up Fernandez for Brandon Nimmo? One pick away from a Harvey-Fernandez rotation, or a potential Harvey-Fernandez-Wheeler-Syndergaard rotation.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Drafts! Horrible things happen in hindsight!

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: If it’s consolation you seek, maybe Fernandez wouldn’t have developed the same with New York

10:38
Comment From Rags
Other than Stanton, which is the next player traded who makes the biggest impact on a team?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Price

10:38
Comment From Maxamuz
John Rocker is doing a AMA right now on Reddit. http://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/1jtko4/i_am_john_rocker_former_mlb_pitcher_here_to_take/?sort=new

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a good opportunity for me to shut this down, then. Go over there!

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve got some stuff to work on. Thank you everybody for coming by and sorry for what I didn’t have an opportunity to address. We’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time — maybe *on* time! — and in the meantime, be wonderful



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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libre
Member
Member
2 years 10 months ago

Man I can’t wait until Jeff doesn’t get here.

libre
Member
Member
2 years 10 months ago

And now I just look foolish.

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