Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/3/13

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, we’ll get going in a couple minutes. Finishing off the last of breakfast, as is always the case, every single time.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: I spent the entire long weekend in the North Cascades and have next to no idea what’s been happening in baseball lately. As such this is going to be the worst live baseball chat you’ve ever experienced.

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Educate me!

9:02
Comment From Brian S
Why on earth is Kevin Gregg still a Cub?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still the same Kevin Gregg who signed a minor-league contract after the start of the season, plus five months

9:02
Comment From Fun fact of the day
Pedro Astacio, 1999: 5.04 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 38 HR… and a 5.9 rWAR, good for 5th in the NL. Coors Field!

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Playing with old Coors Field numbers is every bit as fun as playing with old Barry Bonds numbers.

9:03
Comment From Dr. Met
You’re on time… to say you’ll be late. Awesome welcome back

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: At least you guys get an official warning.

9:03
Comment From Guest
What did you have for breakfast? This is an important issue.

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Goods from a bakery in Leavenworth. You should all go to central Washington, and Leavenworth.

9:03
Comment From E in D
Barry Zito is pretty awful. Does he get a major league contract next year?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll probably sign a minor-league contract and get a major-league job out of camp

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll sign somewhere and fans will say “ehh no risk” and then the manager will be like “well I can’t turn down someone with Barry Zito’s experience” and a more interesting youngster will be returned to Triple-A for a month and a half until everyone realizes the mistake

9:04
Comment From juan pierres mustache
hey guys jeff doesn’t know what happened this weekend, no one tell him

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I understand the Rays lost a lot

9:05
Comment From _David_
Trout and Cabrera…It’s happening again isn’t it?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Not exactly — the gap is smaller and now we have the “benefit” of precedent. And now we don’t get the Robinson Cano WAR interloper

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t realize the extent of Trout’s WAR advantage in 2012 over Cabrera

9:06
Comment From Tom
The sky might be falling for the Cards’ rotation.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: But probably it is not

9:08
Comment From E in D
Danny Espinosa: National next season? If not… where?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know where he’s going, but he’s going

9:08
Comment From Jay
Given the way the White Sox do things, do you think Marcus Semien has a good shot at a starting gig in April with big league club?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: The door is clearly open and a real shot exists, but I’d be surprised, at this point, if he’s starting in the majors next April

9:11
Comment From zack
Will John Axford be the Cardinals next successful project?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Still has his stuff, still difficult to hit a lot of the time. I suspect he’s going to be a good reliever for St. Louis, but not an amazing one

9:12
Comment From _David_
Ackley confidence meter?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: 4

9:12
Comment From Mike Rizzo
Do I need to use a bit more Sabermetric skill when doing my job? had a few bad signings.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Sabermetrics aren’t going to save you from making bad signings, but you could stand to pay more attention to the people who feed you data

9:13
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Do you think Wainright is pitching through an injury or just a month long slump?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Month-long? Before the two Reds games, he dominated the Cubs and the Braves

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: We could be seeing evidence of a little fatigue, but I’m still a big Wainwright fan, as you should be

9:15
Comment From Ian
I saw Dave Chappelle Saturday and he was just as great as ever. The Hartford incident barely phased him. You should go.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know for whom this advice is intended but it seems like good advice

9:16
Comment From LarryA
The cubs seem to have a lot of money coming off the books this offseason, plus the Cubs should be able to place in the top 3rd of MLB spending, will they make a few big free agent signings?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll try hard

9:18
Comment From zack
Should the orioles try and pounce on a Wieters extension given his poor season?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Wieters would give them a discount, so I don’t think this season really changes things. He still seems destined for free agency

9:20
Comment From zack
Who should the Rays use in a playoff rotation: the artist formally known as Fausto Carmona or Hellickson?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Close enough to pick by opponent. If they’re lefty-heavy, probably lean toward Hellickson, but if they depend on a bunch of righties then it ought to be Hernandez

9:21
Comment From Guest
Do you like baseball?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Less than I used to

9:21
Comment From Spooks
How does the Syrian crisis relate to A-Rod?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Roughly simultaneous

9:22
Comment From Goat
Hey Jeff! I am curious to know if anyone has done an analysis of win values of batters ekeing out long ABs? At a guess it would work something like taking the opposing pitcher’s WAR, dividing it by the total no of pitches he throws in a season, and comparing the number of pitches the batter in question faces to the average pitches per AB against that pitcher, and multiplying that difference by pitcher WAR/pitch… Would the difference between batters be big enough to move the needle?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not going to find anything. Lots of talk about the value of driving up a pitch count, but then even if you’re successful you just get into the bullpen a little early and relievers are better than starters. It’s a complicated subject and sometimes you do want to drive up a pitch count but ordinarily things just aren’t that simple

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: People have looked at the effects of long at-bats but then you get into a bunch of selectivity variables and whatnot

9:24
Comment From Tim
There’s nothing official, but it sounds like Ned Yost is really checked out, even though his team is technically still in the race. Who (within Dayton Moore’s limitations) would you like to see manage the Royals in 2014?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Buddy Bell because when I was driving home yesterday I thought Buddy Bell still managed the Royals and I want my instinct to be right again

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not many less interesting subjects than trying to narrow down managerial candidates. They’re all the same and we don’t know crap about them

9:25
Comment From Erich
Rickie Weeks has been pretty awful for two years, and is in the last year of his contract next season (with a completely voidable 2015 option). Over/Under on a date when he gets released next year?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Traded

9:27
Comment From zack
Did you see the Rays all terrible person line up from this weekend? It had Josh Lueke, Yunel Escobar, Luke Scott, AND Delmon.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: They say Yunel Escobar has been a peach. Who knew that was possible!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: And we try to analyze chemistry. So stupid.

9:27
Comment From Guest
If Mike Trout is so good, why are the Angels so bad? Seriously, how are they this bad when they have the luxury of the best player in the leagye playing for peanuts.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball baseball teams aren’t basketball teams and you need more than one awesome player at a time.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball baseball teams. Okay.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: *Because

9:28
Comment From Nick C
Yankees are only 2.5 games back in the wild card, do you see them at least being in the mix in the last couple days of the season?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: 7 games against the Red Sox, 4 against the Orioles, 3 against the Rays. It’s a really tough schedule down the stretch and I don’t love the Yankees’ chances although one notes that they finish on the road in Houston

9:30
Comment From TimmysHair
Do you think there’s any reason for recent NL dominance in World Series? Or just a weird streak?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the AL went undefeated in 13 consecutive All-Star Games?

9:33
Comment From zack
More likely to be the opening day second basemen for the cards next season: Wong or Carpenter?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter

9:33
Comment From Raymond
Cespdes’ K-rate near 24% and OPS around .715. And he’s almost 28. Was last year an outlier?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t really have an outlier when you have two data points. Cespedes is better than this and worse than that. Not a whole lot meaningful has changed, and he still has all the talent in the world. He’s just not a superstar. He’s a fine player who can look like a superstar sometimes, and act like one.

9:35
Comment From Marco
Do you follow NESCAC baseball?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: sometimes I barely follow NL baseball

9:35
Comment From Matt
Is there a decent argument that MVP has to be from winning teams? Because if Stanton hit 70 HRs on the Marlins, it would be for nothing because the Marlins would still be awful, making his value meaningless.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: The idea is that value can only exist at and beyond the playoff win threshold. Logically, no, that doesn’t make any sense, because you can have valuable players on bad teams. Valuable players on bad teams keep those bad teams from being even worse teams. But obviously enough people believe a team needs to be good to vote for a guy, and that’s the argument. That many people can’t be wrong!

9:37
Comment From Guest
Do you the think the A’s have enough talent to win the world series?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, of course

9:37
Comment From KJ
Wilhelmsen is back… and should we care? Does he get any kind of high leverage gig this year? Next year?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is going to be handed to him this time around

9:39
Comment From West
Do you think the Cards will trade (or try to trade) Matt Adams? Seems like a lot of potential value to have n the bench.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll push anything, because I think they’re comfortable with the flexibility he provides, and he isn’t actually that good of a player

9:40
Comment From SeaBass
Are the White Sox the skinniest team in baseball? Sale, Ramirez, etc.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: worthy of investigation!

9:41
Comment From Nick C
Have you noticed how many times Puig has had to leave a game early due to a minor injury? It seems like an extremely inordinate number.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He probably plays with a lot of aches and pains and the Dodgers have no reason at all to push him at a time when the games are irrelevant. They can take it easy on him now so he has more to offer when things matter again

9:42
Comment From STiVo
Does Michael Morse bring a platoon split to Baltimore that can be used to the Orioles’ advantage?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a DH who doesn’t suck at hitting, which is good for them

9:43
Comment From zack
In a hypothetical scenario where he avoids any suspension and was a free agent, what kind of contract do you think AROD would get offered?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: One year, cheap. Too many headaches.

9:45
Comment From Gerrit Cole
Why am I so damn hittable?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: You aren’t, really, but you throw a lot of strikes and you throw a lot of fastballs

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Your strikeouts are getting better!

9:45
Comment From Tom
Derrick Goold in StL is reporting Waino may have been tipping pitches to the Reds. So there’s that.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, that is a good thing to tell a pitcher who’s been struggling. That way you convince him it’s just a little mechanical tweak, and nothing he has to worry about. Sometimes, maybe, pitchers tip their pitches, but most of the time it seems like there’s nothing to these suggestions

9:46
Comment From _David_
Felix has a bit of a rough patch recently,then does everything right yesterday, strikeouts, walks, hr, tons of groundballs, nothing hit hard, and gives up 3 runs in 6.6. He must be kind of frustrated.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Imagine my alarm when I was driving home and turned on the radio and heard within a minute that Felix was out of the game with an injury

9:47
Comment From BobThe Catcher
Do you have any suggestions for the feeling of disappointment I have over there basically being only two interesting races this year?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: They’re really interesting races, and then there are the playoffs

9:48
Comment From Wookie D
Are the M’s due to spend a ton of cash in the off-season this year with so many youngin’s factoring into 2014 ball?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: There is a sense within the game that the Mariners are preparing to spend a lot of money

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: They have basically no commitments outside of Felix, and they have holes all over

9:49
Comment From Kalamazoo
What do you think is going to happen with Scherzer and the Tigers in terms of a contract?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Tigers will do what they need to to make sure he doesn’t get away

9:50
Comment From GSon
AL WildCard heating up.. NYY’s, O’s and Indians.. who do you like?.. why?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Rays and A’s, because I’m boring

9:50
Comment From zack
What kind of contract will Josh Johnson get this offseason? One like LIriano’s with a lot of incentives built in for innings totals and effectiveness?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Higher base, no club option

9:52
Comment From Gila Monster
I like to think of the Trout vs. Miggy this year by looking at improvements. Trout raised his wRC+ by 14. Miggy raised his by 38. Both their defense is worse than last season. Miggy would join Bonds,Bagwell,Thomas, and McGwire as the only players in 20 years to post 200+ wRC+. Trout has gotten better. Miggy has taken his game to a new level.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera’s new level is probably worse than Trout’s regular level

9:53
Comment From Todd
Will Bogusevic get a long look for the Cubs? Seems like he has a lot of potential and decent power/speed blend. Maybe a 15/15 guy?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: beware the 29-year-olds who were recently discarded by the Astros

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: just a bench sort

9:54
Comment From Mike
Does Cabrera already have the MVP locked up? What if he only plays 10 games this month and Trout gets to 100 RBI and 30 HR

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: just no way for Trout to win this thing, realistically

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: it would be up to Chris Davis pushing the Orioles into the playoffs

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton won that MVP with 133 games played

9:55
Comment From Pew Research
Conducting an opinion poll of interweb baseball chat hosts, (terrible selection bias and response rates); How important is playoff pitching rotation construction? Explain, briefly.

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: It is, of course, important to get your best pitchers the most starts, but the difference is small between an optimized order and a non-optimized but reasonable order, and within any given series there’s entirely too much noise to be able to blame rotation construction for a series win or loss

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Do everything perfectly in the playoffs, in terms of strategy, and you might boost your WS odds by a few percentage points

9:57
Comment From Kalamazoo
Is Matt Garza going to get hideously overpaid?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Not hideously

9:57
Comment From Eskpert-man
Kershaw seems to be the consensus favourite for NL cy, even among sabrmetricians, despite the fact that he doesn’t lead in the two important dips, Siera and park adjusted xfip; does the innings lead over Harvey and the wide results gap over Wainwright push him over the top? Or are even the best attempts at creating a comprehensive dips flawed in their quality of contact evaluation

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw appears to have demonstrated an ability to pitch beyond his xFIP, awards should be based at least in large part upon what really happened, and I don’t even know what SIERA does

9:58
Comment From SeaBass
Why do you like your job less? Is it because it is more or less your job now? Like if I were a porn star…would I eventually end up liking sex less?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Turn a hobby into a job and it isn’t a hobby anymore

9:59
Comment From Guest
Would you rather the Mariners go for Choo or Ellsbury? What do you think will actually happen?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury

9:59
Comment From Evan
If Jose Fernandez continues to dominate, is there anyway that Puig still manages to steal NL ROY?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Still a very good chance that Puig wins the NL ROY, especially if he plays down the stretch while Fernandez gets shut down at his innings limit. It’s not an open-and-shut case

10:01
Comment From Guest
Is there a relatively simple estimate for calculating FIP?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: it’s FIP. that’s the simple estimate

10:01
Comment From Guest
Is there any indication that run support is consistent? Will certain pitchers always get more or less run support for whatever reason?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Not that anybody’s identified. An ace might go up against other aces more often, but rotations get so jumbled around…

10:02
Comment From Kalamazoo
Are you kind of saying you aren’t that into baseball?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Not like a fan, not like it used to be. Baseball now is more of a scientific pursuit

10:04
Comment From Walt Jr.
Thoughts on this season of Breaking Bad?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: almost perfect

10:04
Comment From Gila Monster
Miguel Cabrera will be a free agent in 2016 at the age of 32. Albert Pujols was a a free agent last year at age 32. Will Miggy get more than Pujols’s 10y/$240m? Assuming this is his peak season and he avoids injury.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: fewer years, higher AAV

10:05
Comment From PaulM
Morse seems like a natural fit at Camden, any projections?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: no sense in projecting four weeks of baseball but expect strikeouts and the occasional dinger

10:05
Comment From Garth Vader
Royals are 4.5 back of the WC. Is that as close as the number seems, or is 4.5 further away than it seems?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a big gap over a small amount of baseball, and there are a bunch of other teams in front of them, which is even more important

10:06
Comment From MFG
RE: Yankees, isn’t “strength of schedule” essentially meaningless in such a small sample?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: no?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: why would that be the case?

10:06
Comment From Henry
Do the playoff odds calculation of schedule difficulty take into account rest days as well as opponent strength? The Red Sox have a few tough opponents coming up but lots of days off in the meantime, so it seems like just an opponent one might underestimate their success.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: No, they don’t take rest days into account, because how would that work? How do we even know rest days are that valuable?

10:07
Comment From Henry
why no worst of the best this week? I missed it. I still do.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I was camping

10:07
Comment From Chris
Wow, Buddy Bell hasn’t managed the Royals since 2007. Where have you been?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I knew in my heart it was Ned Yost but Buddy Bell is and will forever be the instant association

10:08
Comment From Jake
Do you expect McCutchen to win the MVP? I don’t see a position player having a shot at it. Do you think Kershaw sneaks his way in with a sub 2.00 ERA? Do you think he would deserve it?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, yeah, it’s Kershaw, and yeah, he deserves it

10:08
Comment From Kalamazoo
Remember when Keith Law and Brandon McCarthy got into it a little about whether or not “locked in” exists, and then Tango said you should look at players who have been 4-4 with at least a home run and see if they performed better than what their career numbers would lead a person to expect in their 5th AB. Did anyone do that? Results? Expectations?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if anyone did that specifically, but the people who have investigated this before didn’t really find much of anything, which is why the sabermetric consensus is the sabermetric consensus

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I also suspect that the two sides could be talking about slightly different things. A batter might be unusually locked in for one PA, but that might not necessarily carry over to the next. So in PA 1, he might have a higher wOBA, but then in PA 2 he could be normal. He was just in the zone, fleetingly

10:10
Comment From Kalamazoo
Have the Cardinals looked for a Freese replacement at all?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter and Wong

10:10
Comment From Gregory
Favorite foodcart pod in Portland?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: presently, the one behind Coalition

10:10
Comment From MarinersFan
I’m at the top of the Columbia Tower, give me a reason not to jump

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: you’ll make a mess

10:11
Comment From OJones
matt moore’s coming back today, any word on the velo in his rehab start?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: no physical complaints

10:12
Comment From dusty
is chapman hurt? Is a week off normal or should I be complaining about 6 weeks vacation?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I believe he was warming up late in the game yesterday

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: so probably just a breather

10:14
Comment From Shoots First
2014 Comeback Player of the Year?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: hmm

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Halladay?

10:15
Comment From Chess
Do you think the Cubs will give long term contracts to Wood and Samardzija?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija

10:15
Comment From Ralph
How much confidence do you have that Lackey will sustain his success into next season?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: lots!

10:16
Comment From Jhony Peralta
Are the Tigers going to bring me back for the playoffs? What am I going to be doing next year?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where you’re going to be playing next year, but you can think about that while you sit at home in October

10:16
Comment From Hi
do you see yourself doing this 20 years down the road? please say yes

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Try not to think about it because it’s overwhelming and crippling. Who the hell knows? I just want to get to the next weekend.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: What is the internet even going to look like in 20 years?

10:17
Comment From LarryA
Do you prefer calling a third of an inning .3 or .1?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I prefer typing .1 but that’s stupid of me

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, what do you do at two-thirds of an inning? 0.6 or 0.7? Rounding makes that look stupid too

10:17
Comment From Jarrod
What are your qualifications to run this forum?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Obligation!

10:18
Comment From tropicalmug
Do the Royals give Santana Jeremy Guthrie money this offseason?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: That won’t get him re-signed

10:18
Comment From Chess
Do you think Kershaw should win the NL MVP?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: yeah

10:18
Comment From MFG
Carter Capps have a shot at closing for SEA in 2014?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:18
Comment From John
If a very productive Bonds didn’t get a contract offer, why would a mildly productive A-Rod get an offer?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he wouldn’t, but also, times have changed in the past few years.

10:19
Comment From Guest
Your preferred 2014 Mariners 2b?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley

10:19
Comment From Prich
Who would you assume has more value in a trade: Nick Franklin or Dustin Ackley?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Ackley

10:20
Comment From Mike
What would Joey Votto’s OBP be if he played a season in Divisino I baseball this season. close to .800?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Something like .600-.650, perhaps. He’d still hit into outs.

10:21
Comment From Greg
Is it even possible someone not named Kershaw or McCutchen wins the NL MVP? Who do you think will, not should, win?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Could’ve been Yadier Molina, but now it’s probably Kershaw’s to lose

10:22
Comment From Bret
Yan Gomes. Is he this good? Not huge BABIP luck, but has put up 2.5 WAR in just 65 games. I mean, he’s probably not good THIS good, but would suspect he’s a ~3 WAR catcher if he played full-time next year?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Did you know he even rates well in terms of pitch-framing?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: He sure has the makings of a pretty good player, although yeah, his offense could be exposed over more time because it’s not like he has the most disciplined approach

10:23
Comment From Owen
Even if the Mets pitching comes together and they have a great rotation, do you see them finding enough hitting for it to matter?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: If everything comes together for them, pitching-wise, they’ll be in real good shape

10:24
Comment From Greg
Detroit is 8.5 games up and based on WAR Miguel Cabrera has been worth 7.6 wins so far this year. Detroit would probably be in first even without him. Shouldn’t we be voting for the best player that pushes his team over the threshold into the playoffs (or better yet into first in their division)?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Based on one definition of value, yeah. Based on what should be the definition of value, it should just be value, independent of context

10:25
Comment From Tommie
Do you think there is significant upside left in Hosmer’s game or is this what we can expect – an above average contact guy with below average power for a 1b?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s real power upside, not that he’ll necessarily tap into it

10:26
Comment From Henry
Has anyone tried to quantify the value of rest days? If not, can you think of a basic way to do so?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: You’d have to lean on a bunch of historical rest-of-season projections which to my knowledge don’t exist, and then it’s getting way too complicated for way too little payoff

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: so it’ll remain in the realm of speculation — people will have opposing opinions, forever, and no one will have the certainty of rightness

10:27
Comment From Nick
Trout puts up a _WAR season next year?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: 9

10:29
Comment From Carlo
Corbin’s recent tailspin a sign of potential injury or just regression?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see any sign of injury, and he just finished a game with a walk and six strikeouts

10:29
Comment From NBarnes
Could you possibly be more burned out on baseball and baseball writing?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I could!

10:31
Comment From Chris
I thought Samardzija had indicated he had no interest in a long term contract.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: “We both have an understanding,” Samardzija said, referring to Cubs management. “We both want me here and that is a great place to be.”

10:31
Comment From Guest
2014 Mariners or 2014 Angels: who finishes with a better record?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Angels

10:31
Comment From Guest
As long as you understand the 0.1 notation for IP is in it’s way better than .33333333333

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: yeah, I like 0.1/0.2 and I allow myself that inaccuracy. I consider it part of speaking/writing the language

10:32
Comment From SeaBass
What would it take for baseball to contract two teams and get rid of divisions AND go with a balanced schedule AND get rid of wildcards?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: collective, mass, simultaneous threat of death

10:33
Comment From James Paxton
Why did the Mariners waste a 40 man spot on me? Do I even deserve a callup right now? What does my future look like?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: They figure they were going to put you on the 40-man soon anyway. They value this September big-league experience and they’ll start you after Walker is shut down. Your future could look like Erik Bedard’s career, but that’s upside and not probability

10:34
Comment From Greg
Are stolen bases still in wOBA (and as a result the offensive portion of WAR)? Or are they part of BsR now?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: steals are out of wOBA

10:35
Comment From Isaac
Please rank, in order of sports funniness: Matt Sussman, Jon Bois, Matthew Kory, Sam Miller, Grant Brisbee, Jeff Sullivan

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Not going to rank, but Brisbee is the most consistently funny in essay form. Sussman is perfect for Twitter form. Bois is a treasure but I’m not sure he really counts as a sportswriter, per se

10:36
Comment From LaLoosh
huh? Ackley has more value than Franklin?! that had to be a joke, right??

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: that would be one dull joke

10:36
Comment From Rolex
Will Josh Hamilton rebound next year?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: some

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: keep in mind the 2009 he had, before his 2010 MVP

10:37
Comment From Jeremy
Do the Pirates have what it takes? Is this their 2010 Rays year?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I like their upgrades and I like their roster. They’re good. Can’t say anything beyond that, but yeah, they have what it takes to win everything, just like the other playoff teams do

10:40
Comment From DNA
Cardinals, lowest WAR from starting pitching since the all-star break of any team. Maybe you should re-evaluate your stance?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: You’re right, that’s bad, but they were also second in WAR from starting pitching before the All-Star break, and that can’t just be thrown out in the garbage. The talent’s there and I’m not wild about the back end

10:42
Comment From JayT
I once read an article years ago talking about how one way you could look at “value” is who adds the most additional revenue to a team, since value is normally associated with money. In other words, wins 85-90 are worth a lot more than wins 75-80 or 95-100. I always thought that was kind of an interesting way to think of the MVP. By that measure though, neither Cabrera or Trout would be first in line since the Tigers would probably still be in first without Miggy, and Trout’s great season is basically been wasted by the Angels.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: And then you can talk about player salaries factoring in, too, if you *really* want to dig into value. There’s a reason people love the MVP debates — there’s an awful lot to debate, as simple as we sometimes try to make it out to be

10:42
Comment From Prich
More value in a trade: Paxton or Hultzen?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Paxton; nobody wants a pitcher with a shoulder problem

10:43
Comment From juan pierres mustache
any time you start to lose interest in baseball, remember that this happens: http://www.fangraphs.com/not/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/cubsdance.gif

10:43
Comment From juan pierres mustache
and that these guys spend 6 months a year in dugouts and still sometimes decide to stand up and sing sweet caroline, because why not http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3148007/SweetCaroline_9-2-13.gif

10:43
Comment From The Kudzu Kid
Look, with 6.1 IP what’s before the period is in decimal and after is in ternary HOW IS THIS HARD TO UNDERSTAND

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: so is that an argument for or against

10:44
Comment From Guest
re: “locked in” – Thomas Gilovich has research that strongly suggests that “locked in” doesn’t exist, however the study used basketball data.

10:44
Comment From Jeb
Thomas Gliovich researched the idea of “locked in” – basically, he concluded that it doesn’t exist, though he used basketball data. Anyone who is interested should google “Gilovich hot hand.”

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Simultaneous entries. Seems interesting to me!

10:46
Comment From Guest
Which playoff team is the furthest from having what it takes?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a hard one. Reds? But they still have what it takes.

10:46
Comment From ar
it’s a terrible study about hot hands.. but there are better ones that show a similar thing (although it’s wrong to say it doesn’t exist… more accurate to say it doesn’t exist enough to matter)

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds about right

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Now you just saved me time and time is important

10:47
Comment From Ed
IS Taijuan Walker that good, or was it a little bit of Astros based success? Predictions for his second start against KC tomorrow?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t get to watch, because I was in a tent away from reception and service on purpose, but having gone over things, it was a fine debut against a not-fine opponent. I suspect against the Royals he’ll have more walks and strikeouts

10:48
Comment From dave
Will Edinson Volquez be saved by the Dodgers? Starting on Weds? Worth a flyer in Colorado?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: he’s awful

10:48
Comment From Vin Scully
Who is least un-enjoyable NotGrahphs writer?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I have really come to enjoy NotGraphs of late but I’m biased in Carson’s favor because I have met him and enjoyed his company

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Carson is a doll

10:49
Comment From JayT
One nice thing about using .3/.7 rather than .1/.2 is that you can actually do math with the former, even though I tend to use the .1/.2 approach. Although, my personal favorite is just to tack on a “1/3rd” or “2/3rds”.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: In writing, I’m content with .1/.2. In spreadsheets, it’s always .33 and .67

10:50
Comment From Rhodes
Chances that Machado’s aggregate WAR exceeds that of Harper’s over the next three years?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: 40%

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: 40%?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, sure, 40%.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: This has been fun but I think it’s time to wrap it up so I can re-learn baseball after a weekend away. So much probably happened! The Astros might have won a game!

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: So, thank you everybody for coming by, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. You have my sincerest apologies. We’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time, and until then, be wonderful and have great days



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Jeff, as a fellow writer (mostly football), I empathize with your hobby/job quandary. Don’t know if you’ve found this, too, but I take a nice deep breath at the end of the season … then come September (April for you) I’m really excited for the start of a new season. I get worn down as the thing goes on.

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