Jeremy Hellickson: Strikeouts Cometh
Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.
The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.
Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
It presently appears that the bulk of Hellickson’s ERA success has come on the weight of his crazy good BABIP. As Jeff Zimmerman pointed out, Hellickson does not have a history (in the minors) of sporting a low BABIP, and Paul Swydan, in his breakdown of this series, shows equal disregard of Hellickson’s shiny ERA.
The truth is, this kind of BABIP does not last:
When a player sustains a low BABIP, he can do so pretty much through only two measures: (1) inducing a good deal of fly balls (which Hellickson does) and/or (2) inducing a lot of O-Zone (outside the zone) contact (a la Matt Cain). But even then, these low-BABIP pitchers like Cain and Shaun Marcum still have relatively normal BABIPs on their batted ball types.
As we see above, Hellickson does not.
So maybe he’s inducing a lot of contact outside the zone?
Indeed, Hellickson gets a good deal of bad contact (still not enough to warrant a .220ish BABIP), but here we encounter something unexpected: An impressive 9.7% swinging strike rate. Despite only a meager 15.1% K-rate, Hellickson sported the 24th highest swinging strike rate among all starters.
This is a fact the good Mr. Mike Podhorzer noticed over at Rotographs, suggesting back in June that Hellickson was due a strikeout improvement of the remainder of the season. And frankly, Podhorzer appears right on.
Looking at the 35 best swinging-strike starters in the league, we realize either Jeremy Hellickson is an absolute, hated-even-by-his-mother kind of freak, or a pitcher poised to join some very special company:
So, Hellickson, with an elite 9.7% swinging strike rate, has a pedestrian 15% K-rate. What if his K-rate were actually in step with his swinging strike rate? Well, let’s see. Assuming he gets, I dunno, a 20% K-rate (which is 1.7% lower than the above group), then instead of 117 strikeouts this year, he would have had about 155 — which would make for a much better 4.04 FIP.
If he managed a mere 18% K, then his FIP would be in the 4.20 neighborhood. At the group average — 21.7% — he would sport a 3.90 FIP. Gio Gonzalez has a 9.5% swinging strike rate, but 22.8% K-rate — that could put Hellboy in the 3.81 region.
Which is to say: Hellickson, who is only 24 years old and in his first big league season, could and should very easily improve his strikeouts — frankly, it would be a mystery if he does not. So, crazy BABIP or not, the Rays still have a genuine commodity in the unflappable young rookie — as well as a match-up more even than it appears for this afternoon.
When I say Hellickson is poised to join special company, I mean so. Examine below the aforementioned 35 pitchers:
| Name | Team | SwStr% | 2011 K% |
| Michael Pineda | Mariners | 11.8% | 24.9% |
| Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays | 11.5% | 22.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 11.3% | 22.8% |
| Matt Garza | Cubs | 11.2% | 23.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 11.2% | 23.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 11.1% | 27.2% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Marlins | 10.9% | 24.3% |
| Roy Halladay | Phillies | 10.8% | 23.6% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 10.7% | 24.4% |
| James Shields | Rays | 10.7% | 23.1% |
| Mat Latos | Padres | 10.6% | 23.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Brewers | 10.6% | 28.1% |
| Chris Capuano | Mets | 10.5% | 21.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 10.5% | 18.9% |
| Bud Norris | Astros | 10.5% | 22.1% |
| Josh Beckett | Red Sox | 10.5% | 22.8% |
| Shaun Marcum | Brewers | 10.3% | 19.2% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 10.3% | 19.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 10.2% | 25.8% |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | 10.0% | 20.7% |
| Dan Haren | Angels | 9.9% | 20.2% |
| Daniel Hudson | Diamondbacks | 9.9% | 18.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | 9.8% | 20.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 9.7% | 15.1% |
| Ricky Romero | Blue Jays | 9.6% | 19.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | 9.5% | 22.8% |
| Cliff Lee | Phillies | 9.3% | 25.9% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 9.3% | 18.5% |
| Ryan Dempster | Cubs | 9.3% | 21.7% |
| Chris Carpenter | Cardinals | 9.2% | 19.2% |
| Edwin Jackson | - – - | 9.2% | 17.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 9.2% | 22.6% |
| Philip Humber | White Sox | 9.1% | 17.2% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 9.1% | 19.7% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 9.1% | 21.4% |
| Average | 10.2% | 21.7% |
Hellickson always has been praised for having a good change up. I did not see it in the graphs above, but could the out of the zone contact rate be for pitches that are low, and thus show he could maintain that profile as a pitcher since the change up is a strength!
That’s what I’d expect, but I did not research that specifically.
I guess a high ground ball percentage would be the proof of that.
Morrow’s K% is 26.1% this year
Good catch! I put those in by hand, so some of them be a touch off. (I have Morrows rookie K-rate in there for some reason.)
He’s also exhibiting less control of his pitches on a BB/9 basis (compared to his minor league numbers).
One must wonder if that comes down to some of this swinging strike regression. If he’s getting swings and misses on strikes one and two, and fouls on subsequent strikes, it makes sense his walks would tick up as he can’t put away hitters.
One of my theories — that I didn’t have enough time and space to explore — was that Hellickson is using his put-away pitch (the changeup) to early in at bats, so hitters are able to foul it off later having seen it.
I really liked the article.
These statistics are probably closely related to SwStr%, but Hellickson’s Z-Swing% is 2nd highest in the league while Z-Contact% is 2nd lowest. Could this indicate success with the changeup? Is Z-Swing% prone to fluctuate? If not, why so high?
I’m not sure. Good questions, though!
We must go deeper into the rabbit hole!! Investigations into Hellboy’s mesmerizing changeup are necessary!!
Should we expect the regression to happen now, though? Or is it something that will get fixed as he develops as an MLB pitcher?
Today? Maybe not. The Rangers do not like to K — they are ball-in-play happy.
In general, though, I think we are seeing the correct ingredients are in place for more strikeouts, but I also believe he will continue to develop as a pitcher.
Not doubting this at all, but my first thought when I saw the entry title was “yeah, right, everybody said the same thing about Porcello.”
Super Awesome.
I’m curious about the few that seemed to have “out-performed” their SwStr%, namely Lee, Greinke, Verlander, and Kershaw.
The Called Strike % leaderboard at B-ref doesn’t provide any answers. Though Lee ranks 11th at 31% and Greinke 18th, Verlander is 47th and Kershaw 103rd at 26%.
Is Called Strike % just a lot of noise? I’ll run a yoy correlation, but if someone can save me the legwork that’d be cool.
That is exactly what I was thinking 3 years ago!!
Great post. I own Hellickson in a dynasty league and was following his numbers from the minors on up to his first full season…needless to say, his K/9 and K/BB rates baffled me all year. This is a great look into what has been, hopefully, a bit of an aberration into Hell Boy’s strikeout numbers.
In the real world, I’m also pulling for Tampa over Texas, so hopefully the good Hellickson shows up tonight. Go Tampa!
He also seems to have one of the smallest strike zones in the game. The umps refuse to give him much on the borders and nothing at the knees. (It’s the last graph in the link): http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/476451/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2011&to=9%2F29%2F2011
Good find! Doesn’t the zone usually grow with age?
I certainly hope so.
where’s brandon beachy, at 11.8% and 28.6%, respectively? he had a remarkable year, five innings at a time.
Hmmm… Frankly, I’m not sure where he went.
Either way, it only makes Hellboy’s 15% K-rate all the crazier.
I think he wasn’t on my leaderboard because I had the default filter on (which I believe is the qualifying amount of innings) and Beachy only has 141ish innings.
I’m surprised to see Pineda #1 in SwStr%. Pineda can still become better as he didn’t exhibit his usually plus control in the majors like he has done every year in the minors. We might be looking at a Felix Hernandez clone if he can stay healthy.
he actually should have company at the top of the list.
Beachy had an 11.8 SwSt% as well. (and a ridiculous 28.6 K%)
Not sure why he didnt show up. Probably an innings filter?
oops ya, guess i should the entries right above me first
Great article Bradley. Could this be partly an issue of a young pitcher needing to learn how to sequence his pitches better? I would be interested to see how his pitch data looks with different counts. Maybe he’s not using his change as much as he should in 2-strike counts?
Yeah, it seems like that could be legit possibility. Some of the higher K-rates on the list are from veterans.
http://joelefkowitz.com/pitcher_card.php?pid=476451
Scroll down to Count Tendencies.
Although he does seem to throw his changeup in every count, it’s not like he holds back on throwing offspeed stuff in strikeout situations. The curve (only 51.7% strikes, but 12.9% SwStr) is a pitch he uses mostly in pitcher’s counts, and you would expect him to put away a few batters with it.
Hellickson is throwing the changeup too early in counts which accounts for his high Swinging Strike % and his low K%. Hitters are missing the pitch early in counts but adjusting to it later.
Does this mean he will be more successful if he sequences better? Maybe, his K’s should increase, but he may also be hit harder on different pitches earlier in counts.
looks like that BABIP got a bit damaged by one Adrian Beltre
hahaha, actually his BABIP would be unaffected by an HR. (neet zort neet zort).