Jose Quintana Is Better Than You Think

There were a lot of good pitchers in the American League last year. Jose Quintana was one of them. There are a lot of good pitchers in the American League this year. Jose Quintana is one of them. You may not have noticed until recently, as he’s been on a very nice run of late, which was punctuated by five perfect innings to start yesterday’s game at Fenway Park.

Quintana is an easy guy to ignore. He isn’t especially young. This is his age-25 season, and he’s in the midst of his third big-league season, and in his first season he wasn’t called up until early May. That’s pretty good, particularly for a pitcher, but it certainly isn’t remarkable. There are plenty of pitchers who have more than two full seasons under their belt by the time they get to their age-25 season.

Quintana also doesn’t hum the ball in with any sort of remarkable velocity. These days, we are growing accustomed to gaudy velocity totals, even from left-handers (thanks, Aroldis Chapman). However, Quintana’s average fastball velocity this season and last is 91.2 mph. That ranks 44th out of 80 qualified pitchers. Smack dab in the middle, in other words.

Quintana doesn’t strike out boatloads of batters. From 2013 to the present, his 20.4% K% ranks 39th out of 80 qualified pitchers. His 6.8% BB% ranks 45th. And his 13.6% K-BB%? That ranks 34th. Nothing particularly bad, but nothing flashy either. The same goes for his groundball percentage. Since the start of 2013, his 44.3% GB% ranks 41st.

Quintana doesn’t pitch on a contending team, and he also isn’t the best pitcher on his team. That title falls to Chris Sale, who is the same age, but in his fifth major league season (third full season). Sale strikes out more batters, walks fewer of them and has historically thrown the ball harder — though the two aren’t that far apart this season. Sale is also, of course, interesting to watch. To say the least. There are seemingly many more moving parts to his delivery than there should be. Quintana, on the other hand, not only has a pretty quiet and/or smooth delivery. Check out this video from his start on July 5 versus Seattle:

Not only is the delivery quiet, but so are his mannerisms. The video starts with six strikeouts, and after every single one of them, Quintana just puts his head down and circles back toward his place on the mound. Even when he notches a big strikeout in the eighth inning against James Jones, he simply retrieves the ball and turns around.

So, Quintana tends to slip through the cracks. But even though there’s no flash to him, he’s taken the step from a very good pitcher on the periphery of the best in the game to one who is firmly in the discussion. Let’s take a look:

Jose Quintana Compared to Qualified Pitchers, 2013-2014
Year WAR MLB Rank AL Rank RA9-WAR MLB Rank AL Rank
2013 3.7 25th 15th 4.1 22nd 12th
2014 3.2 7th 6th 2.2 29th 17th
Total 6.9 10th 8th 6.4 15th 9th

No matter which WAR you prefer, Quintana has been one of ten best qualified pitchers in the American League during his first two full seasons in the majors. That’s pretty good. This season, he has stepped up his game. He is striking out more batters, and allowing fewer home runs. He is generating more ground balls and permitting fewer fly balls. Using the leaderboards at the Zimmerman’s Baseball Heat Maps, we can see that batted balls against him have been travelling roughly six feet fewer than they did last season. That may not seem like a big difference, but when you cross-reference the 2013 and 2014 leaderboards, and filter out those pitchers with fewer than 200 batted balls, Quintana’s 5.6 ft drop in distance ranks as 25th-best out of 107 pitchers. Again, not super remarkable, and not close to the leader (Dallas Keuchel, 27.67 ft. fewer) or even second place (Phil Hughes, 18.45 ft. fewer), but it’s still pretty good.

But while that may lend some credence to Quintana’s lower home run per fly ball numbers, there is more to this puzzle. In a word, Quintana is crafty. That’s generally a term that you see as a descriptor for older, crappier pitchers, but it is apt here. One thing that Quintana does very well is get strike one. Over the past two seasons, only eight pitchers have been better at attaining it:

F-Strike% Leaders among Qualified Pitchers, 2013-2014
Player F-Strike%
Patrick Corbin 70.20%
David Price 69.30%
Jordan Zimmermann 68.20%
Cliff Lee 68.10%
Clayton Kershaw 66.70%
Brandon McCarthy 66.60%
Bronson Arroyo 66.30%
CC Sabathia 65.90%
Jose Quintana 65.50%
Kyle Lohse 65.40%

Now, getting strike one more than 60 percent of the time isn’t exactly groundbreaking stuff. Looking at the leaderboard, 61.8% is where we cross from the upper half to the lower half. Forty-three of the 80 pitchers here clear that bar. But most pitchers who net strike one at the highest rate generally attack the strike zone the rest of the time as well. Let’s take a look at that second chart again, but with another column added.

F-Strike% Leaders among Qualified Pitchers, 2013-2014
Player F-Strike% Zone%
Patrick Corbin 70.20% 46.60%
David Price 69.30% 48.10%
Jordan Zimmermann 68.20% 48.60%
Cliff Lee 68.10% 53.20%
Clayton Kershaw 66.70% 49.00%
Brandon McCarthy 66.60% 48.60%
Bronson Arroyo 66.30% 48.70%
CC Sabathia 65.90% 47.00%
Jose Quintana 65.50% 44.60%
Kyle Lohse 65.40% 45.30%

Quintana operates in the strike zone less frequently than his top 10 first-strike percentage throwing brethren. In fact, of those 43 who net a 61.8% F-Strike% or better, only eight throw a lower percentage of their total pitches in the strike zone than does Quintana. Quintana is smart enough to get ahead of batters because that’s generally what you need to do succeed in the majors, but since he lacks that one killer pitch — in fact, his oft-used changeup grades out quite poorly — he generally dances around batters after he gets strike one. When we say someone has a great feel for pitching, this is what we’re talking about.

As a result of this maneuvering, batters are often left confounded. According to Baseball Savant, Quintana’s called strike three total ranks in the top 25% of all pitchers both this season and last. This season, he is also generating a higher percentage of called strike three’s as well, though there’s still time for that to regress.

Jose Quintana was a pretty good pitcher last year, but since he’s not flashy, and it was his first full season in the majors, and the White Sox were a disaster, not too many people noticed. He still isn’t flashy, and the White Sox are still not contenders, but it’s definitely time that we started noticing. A lot of things have gone right for the White Sox in their quest to quickly rebuild, and Quintana’s emergence is chief among them. Quintana and Chris Sale give the team a pretty great foundation from which to build their rotation, especially when you consider that they’ll both be wearing black pinstripes for quite some time — the contract that Quintana signed in spring training may turn out to be one of the biggest bargains in years.



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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com. He has written for The Boston Globe, ESPN MLB Insider and ESPN the Magazine, among others. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


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Hawk Harrelson
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Hawk Harrelson
1 year 10 months ago

He’s also got a lot of what’s most important Pauly, TWTW!!!!!

Huh...
Guest
Huh...
1 year 10 months ago

And he’s only 50% owned in standard ESPN leagues… not sure why no one gives this guy credit. He has a FIP UNDER 3. He’s one of the best pitchers in the AL and no one knows. Sigh.

Josh
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Josh
1 year 10 months ago

There is a difference between a good pitcher and a pitcher that is useful in standard fantasy baseball leagues.

AJ
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AJ
1 year 10 months ago

Outside of chincy 10-team leagues where Prince Fielder is still in a starting lineup, there’s very few leagues where Qyontana wouldn’t be a more-than-solid option. The only place he doesn’t wow is in the win/loss record. I jumped on the bandwagon last year and was thankful I had, and I was lucky to get him pretty darn late in our 2014 draft, too. With JFern out for the year, he has slipped in perfectly behind Sale and Zimmermann as a staple to my staff.

AJ
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AJ
1 year 10 months ago

I guess my predictive text didn’t like the name Quintana, lol.

Mike
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Mike
1 year 10 months ago

Add Rodon to the mix, maybe a healthy Erik Johnson or a mid-tier free agent righty, and what’s left of John Danks, and that’s not far from being a good, young, cost-controlled rotation.

Walter Sobchak
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Walter Sobchak
1 year 10 months ago

That creep can roll man…

Yinka Double Dare
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Yinka Double Dare
1 year 10 months ago

Maybe another reason people don’t think of him was he was never anything resembling a touted prospect. Instead, the Yankees let him walk as a minor league free agent; he was in the majors the following May. Whoops.

Matthew Murphy
Member
1 year 10 months ago

One thing this article doesn’t mention is Quintana’s home park. The Cell is tied for the third-most hitter friendly park in the league, and the second-most homer friendly. Quintana’s 3.45 FIP over the past 1.5 seasons is solid, but the reason he’s top-10 in WAR over that time is because of the heavy park/league adjustment applied. He has the 14th-best FIP- since the start of 2013 (85), but only the 27th-best FIP.

Phill
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Phill
1 year 10 months ago

Got him 2 weeks ago for Matt Holliday and Alan Craig. Not mad about it.

Daniel
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Daniel
1 year 10 months ago

That is so interesting. Thanks for sharing.

cubfever7
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cubfever7
1 year 9 months ago

@cobradc23–change your handle to richard cranium

Spa City
Member
Member
Spa City
1 year 10 months ago

I disagree with your initial assertion. Quintana is pretty much exactly as good as I think he is.

Johnston
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

Clearly the A’s should trade for him!

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