Justin Morneau and the Pirates’ First Base Platoon

The Pirates are (probably) going to the playoffs for the first time since 1992. According to the various versions of playoff odds now available at FanGraphs, Pittsburgh currently has at least a 95 percent change of making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the National League Central are much lower, so that throws them into the single-game playoff mix, but getting in is getting in.

The team is not resting on their laurels, though. Having already acquired Marlon Byrd and John Buck from the Mets, the Pirates are now rumored to be trying to get Justin Morneau from the Twins. The Pirates have mostly utilized a first base platoon with Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez and are still positioned to reach the postseason. So, how much of an improvement would the ghost of Morneau provide?

Although the Jones-Sanchez platoon did not look thrilling prior to the season, the Pirates did not have too many other options, and it did project to maximize production at a relatively small cost. In other words, it was a smart move.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the platoon did not provide even the mediocre production for which they were hoping. Sanchez has done his part against lefties this season, as he has posted a 169 wRC+ against them. However, fewer than half of his plate appearances have come against southpaws, and his overall wRC+ this year is 111. That is not great for a first baseman, but it was about what one would expect overall, and platoons cannot always be executed perfectly due to injuries and other issues.

It is Jones’ performance that has been problematic. After his .274/.317/.516 (123 wRC+), poor man’s Corey Hart impression in 2012, Jones fell apart at the plate this year. He is sporting just a .235/.292/.409 (95 wRC+) line at the moment. Although his strikeouts are up, the main problem has been the departure of his home run power relative to last year. Jones’ split is absolutely huge this year (-42 wRC+ versus lefties in 21 plate appearances, 102 wRC+ versus righties in 376 PA), which would be nice for a platoon player, except he has not even been that great versus righties. It is not the size of the split in itself that is problematic — indeed, the bigger the split the better for a platoon player. It is the overall performance that has been bad for the Pirates.

The issue at this point is not what has happened so far, but what the Pirates can expect going forward. The team has plenty of information we do not. Perhaps Jones is dealing with a lingering injury issue, for example. From the information we do have though, we can still look at what the platoon might provide at first base.

There are issues with using rest-of-season projections this late, but that is better than just going by a partial season of observed performance (especially from part-time players like Sanchez and Jones). Without pretending to be precise, let’s average Steamer and ZiPS and say they are both roughly true talent .325 wOBA hitters. Using a basic method for estimating hitter platoon skill, Jones still projects as a .337 wOBA hitter versus righties, and Sanchez as a .349 wOBA hitter versus lefties. No platoon ends up matching up perfectly, but assuming that they would face two-thirds righties, that would be about a .340 wOBA. That is not mind-blowing for first base, but it does project to be about average for the position, and certainly looks better than what they have done so far this year.

As for Morneau, baseball fans mostly know the story here: he was a good, not great player up until 2010, when he went on a monster tear for just over half a season, got a concussion, and has not been the same since. There are teams interested in him now, reportedly because of his recent hot streak, but his seasonal line for 2013 still stands at just .261/.318/.420 (101 wRC+). Sure, Target Field probably deflates his power numbers, but even so, that is not much production from a first baseman.

ZiPS (.328 projected wOBA) and Steamer (.335) like Morneau a bit better than either Sanchez or Jones individually. Morneau’s Steamer projection is not as good as the Sanchez-Jones platoon’s projected production, though. It’s close enough, but Pittsburgh is not looking for close enough — they want to improve.

The obvious answer, of course, is that Pittsburgh should (and probably would) use Morneau to replace just Jones and still give Sanchez the plate appearances versus southpaws as much as possible. Using the same method as above, Morneau projects as a .350 wOBA hitter versus righties, about the same as Sanchez projects versus lefties. The overall platoon jumps from about .340 with Jones to about .350 with Morneau. Over a full season that is a five run improvement. It is a nice gain, other issues aside. But the change would not be for a full season, it would just be for the roughly 30 games left, which means maybe a one-run improvement.

This does not mean the Pirates should not do it. As noted earlier, there may be something specific going on with Jones that is not public knowledge. Maybe they see something specific with Morneau’s recent plate appearances (something beyond a recent hot streak). Even then, the difference is likely to be negligible.

Pittsburgh would have to pick up the rest of Morneau’s salary ($2-$3 million of the year), and so from a basic numerical perspective, it may not be worth it given that their playoff spot is very unlikely to change based on this move. But insignificant things in isolation add up as part of an overall strategy. Given the Pirates’ playoff drought, another couple million dollars for only a slight boost in production may not be brilliant, but it is understandable.




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Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.


23 Responses to “Justin Morneau and the Pirates’ First Base Platoon”

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  1. Brian L says:

    On top of this, its worth stressing that while a GM should make decisions based on expected levels of production over a period of games, on the field games are often won and lost on individual plays. With the game on the line in a situation where that one victory could mean the play-in game or not, you’d take as good a hitter at the plate as you could get, no matter if he’s only a tiny upgrade over the next guy and costs more than that upgrade is worth. You expect those game-on-the-line situations to even out over a season, which is how a GM should be thinking in general, but that slightly higher shot at a game-winning hit is magnified in this situation. And maybe that’s the sort of factor that’s part of your thinking when you deem the move understandable, despite the likely overpay in terms of production per price – both conclusions I agree with.

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  2. Zen Madman says:

    Good article, but why do all of these analyses tend to focus on the odds of reaching the postseason instead of the odds of winning there? Also, the difference between the wild card and the division title is huge now. Is the moral of the story just that if something is not a big improvement over 30 games, it won’t make much of a difference in the postseason?

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    • olethros says:

      It’s that the postseason is inherently unpredictable – witness 2011 WS, G6, or the Red Sox batshit ’04 run.

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      • Mister says:

        The 2004 Red Sox are a weird example to choose. They led the majors in team WAR and won 98 games in the league’s toughest division. Sure, the Cardinals won 105, but played in a much easier division and much easier league (NL teams averaged 31 WAR that year, while AL teams averaged 36). If WAR is at all accurate then the Yankees were pretty lucky to win the AL East that year. Also, the Red Sox were a team that was well built for the playoffs, as much as that’s a real thing at least, in that they had 2 ace pitchers and an excellent closer. At the time they were picked by a lot of people to win. Sure, the manner in which they won was pretty surprising, but I was more surprised by the fact that they let themselves get down 3-0 than I was by the fact that they came back.

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  3. Mr Punch says:

    Agree with Brian. This is precisely the situation in which a team should consider “overpaying” for a marginal improvement. It would be immensely valuable (in actual revenue, presumably)for the Bucs to make the post-season at all, and of course worth a lot to be division champ rather than a wild card.

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    • JRoth says:

      In terms of revenue, the difference between 1st WC (and a home game) and 2nd WC is potentially infinite. As a quick calculation, each home playoff game will net the team about $4M.

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  4. Ian says:

    Getting a little off topic but Morneau actually had a really strong 2009 season going until he broke his back, tried to play through it, and posted a sub .500 OPS over his last 30 games. That tended to destroy his numbers a bit. But had he gone on the DL right away, his 09 season would be remembered a bit more.

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  5. bh192012 says:

    Now lets see the Justin Morneau vs Daric Barton comparison. :)

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  6. payroll says:

    What would be a reasonable return for the Twins if they picked up the 2-3m tab remaining on Morneau’s contract?

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    • Tim says:

      The guy that jumps out at me is Nick Kingham, who’s a Twins-type mid-rotation low-walk starter, and around the same level prospect as the Pirates gave up for Byrd. Otherwise the Pirates prospect pool and the Twins needs don’t match up terribly well. The other guy the Twins would be interested in is Alen Hanson, but they’d have to give up a significant prospect in addition to Morneau to make that happen.

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      • McCarthyisms says:

        I would stunned if the Twins could get Kingham. His stock is up this year and acquiring a 1st baseman with .3 and .8 WAR the past two years while having to pay him $3 million isn’t worth much.

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        • TheBirds says:

          it’s not as if the pirates have a lot of leverage.

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        • Tim says:

          1. In payroll’s scenario the Twins were paying him.

          2. That’s a pretty silly way of putting it. Morneau has still hit the crap out of right-handed pitching the last two years, which is what the Pirates want him for, and they already have a platoon partner. His WAR sucks because the Twins don’t want to admit he hits lefties about as well as I do.

          3. The Pirates don’t really have anybody worse I can see the Twins wanting, apart from the “Terry Ryan picks a guy no one has ever heard of” method. Both systems are flush with outfielders and relievers.

          4. Trades do not have to be straight-up.

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        • Justin M. says:

          Personally, I think the Pirates give up a Jason Creasy type for Moreau if they make the deal. Kingham just seems like too much potential, (136/44 for his K/BB across two A+ and AA this year in 136 innings) to give up for a month plus postseason of Morneau. Creasy is performing really well this season in A ball, (103 innings with 91 Ks and only 23 walks) and seems like a legit prospect who has started to shine as a starter after being a reliever earlier. I’m sure a decent amount of Pirates prospects fans would be sad to see him go for Morneau but you have to give up something to get something.

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      • Spencer says:

        Kingham is a steep price, can’t see the Pirates doing that.

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        • piratesbreak500 says:

          Pirates won’t do it. Even if the Twins cover all of Morneua’s salary, his production isn’t on par with that level of prospect.

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        • JRoth says:

          Even though NH has been good about getting other teams to pay his players (thanks again for AJ Burnett, Yankees), he’s also not afraid to take on salary. He’d never give up a Kingham to save a couple million.

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      • Justin M. says:

        hm… if the PTBNL is a guy like Creasy, I’d say the twins did very well for themselves, if it’s cash considerations… well, then I applaud the Twins by doing good by Morneau and giving him a chance at a pennant.

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  7. Aaron says:

    Sometimes in baseball, having the wrong guy at the plate in the wrong situation still works when having the right guy wouldn’t have worked. The playoffs are all about streaks of fortune. Remember Cody Ross in 2010? Maybe the Pirates don’t need Morneau. The price would have to be low.

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  8. mike wants wins says:

    If the Twins won’t pay his salary, they deserve nothing in return. Really, and I’m a Twins fan. They have money overflowing their coffers…..

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  9. JRoth says:

    Missed element: Jones is a terrible defender at 1B (he’s much more comfortable in RF, although he seems to have lost a couple steps out there as well), and Morneau is above average. Even over 30 games (fewer in a platoon), the difference is at least a run.

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