Justin Upton Needs To Hit More Fly Balls

Justin Upton is still a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. During the off-season, there was no reason to think that the 24-year-old outfielder would be a potential trade candidate. Upton was coming off a phenomenal season, in which he hit .289/.369/.529, and finished fourth in the NL MVP voting. But things have changed in just a few months. While there seems to be some internal reasons for the team wanting to trade their star, Upton’s performance this season hasn’t helped matters. Upton has slumped to just .269/.358/.396. If Upton wants to dispel those rumors, he’s going to need to start producing like everyone expects. In order to do that, he’s going to have to start putting more balls in the air.

Upton’s career path has alternated between superstar-level production, and above-average player. In 2009 and 2011, Upton has looked like a superstar. In 2010 and 2012, he’s looked like an above average outfielder. Some of Upton’s struggles in those seasons can be attributed to his decreased power.

Year SLG WAR
2009 0.532 4.8
2010 0.442 3.0
2011 0.529 6.4
2012 0.396 3.2*

*Upton’s 3.2 WAR for 2012 is based on his rest of season ZiPS projection.

Power seems to be the key to Upton’s success. When he’s been able to hit home runs, he’s been an elite producer. And when we look at his batted ball data, particularly his pull numbers, an interesting trend emerges.

Year LD% GB% FB%
2009 15.3 61.8 22.9
2010 25.8 57.0 17.2
2011 14.8 52.5 32.8
2012 16.3 69.8 14.0

The chart shows Upton’s pull numbers over the last four seasons. In his two best seasons, Upton has been able to take advantage of his pull power. In 2010 and 2012, Upton’s FB% to left field has been under 20%. This season, he’s been even worse than usual, with just 14.0% of his pulled balls ending up in the air.

This is obviously also reflected in his home run numbers. More than half of Upton’s home runs in 2009 were pulled to left. It was even more extreme in 2011, when 22 of Upton’s 31 home runs were classified as pulled. In 2010, Upton pulled just seven home runs to left, which was the same number of home runs he hit to center that season. This season, Upton has hit just four pulled home runs. It’s also important to note that Upton has hit just one home run to center this season, which is also worrisome.

Upton’s power numbers haven’t just been affected by his pull numbers. Overall, Upton has beat the ball into the ground much more often this season. Upton’s ground ball rate has jumped to 45.2% this season, a far cry from his 40.8% career average. His fly ball rate has dropped even further, from a career rate of 40.0%, to 33.8%. While it’s easy to point to his career numbers and say that he’s bound to improve, that’s unlikely to happen this season.

Based on Pizza Cutter’s research, we know that it takes just 250 plate appearances for fly ball rate to stabilize. Upton has already reached 406 plate appearances, and there hasn’t been any significant change in his batted ball data that indicates he’s getting better after a slow start. Upton’s ground ball rate has actually gotten worse as the season has progressed. The last two months, it’s been above 50%. Unless Upton is able to show some significant changes in his final 250 plate appearances this season, his improvement is going to have to wait until next year.

It’s hard to know exactly why Upton has struggled to put the ball in the air this season. When he slumped in 2010, it was revealed that Upton had been dealing with a slightly torn labrum in his left shoulder. At the time, Upton was told to strengthen the shoulder. That seemed to work wonders last season, but it does remain somewhat of a concern this year. If Upton has re-aggravated his shoulder, that would definitely explain his struggles, and would likely lead to a more serious diagnosis this time around.

The shoulder is certainly a concern, but there’s been no talk of that type of injury this season. Upton did jam his thumb early this year. And while he wasn’t placed on the disabled list, he did have to have the thumb drained. It definitely possible that the injury is still a concern. Even if it’s fine now, it’s at least plausible to think that he adjusted his swing to accommodate for the injury, and that’s what has thrown him out of whack this year.

Upton has been a pretty big disappointment this season. His inability to loft the ball has really hurt his production. And while we don’t know the exact culprit behind his struggles, it seems unlikely that Upton will return to form this season.



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Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.


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Paul
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Paul
4 years 1 month ago

Another strong correlation is the PitchF/X values/100. He’s not hitting the high FB, the CB, or the CH. Same thing happened two years ago, where essentially he becomes a slider bad speed guy.

Also, his home run bat speed/true distances are way off versus last season: 104.8/411 versus 107.3/424.

Not only is he not hitting home runs, his doubles are way down, so it looks like he just isn’t driving the ball but catching mistakes once in a while. Because he’s so talented, I’m guessing Gibson thinks he’s offering value in the form of lineup protection just based on reputation. But it sure looks like injury to me.

Very nice job, Chris.

channelclemente
Guest
4 years 1 month ago

Where are you getting the bat speed data from?

Paul
Guest
Paul
4 years 1 month ago

Hittracker.com for both.

carlos
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carlos
4 years 1 month ago

Very good data but only make sense to me if Upton is injured his shoulder and thumb are keeping him from pulling the ball but he so good he’s gonna go on a roll down the stretch they know what it takes to get the next level

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 1 month ago

He still plays with some sort of thumb guard or otherwise wraps a bunch of tape or something around the left thumb of his batting glove.

I tried to look up other front-hand thumb injuries a month or so ago to see how it affected the player’s pull numbers, but I couldn’t find anything comparable.

I had suspected the thumb injury was still bothering him after a particularly awkward swing in the series against the Cubs immediately after the All Star break, where he completely let go of the bat with his front hand, but didn’t lose his grip at all with the right hand, and looked in pain afterwards.

I wish I could find a video of it, but videos of awkward swings aren’t the easiest things to find.

Paul
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Paul
4 years 1 month ago

Now that you mention it, I recall that he released at least one bat into the stands in the series against the Royals.

jesse
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jesse
4 years 1 month ago

Looking at Heatmaps from last year and this year Two things look like big difference –

1) vs lefties he is swing at alot more pitches down and away; which would make sense that those are getting rolled over and hit on the ground

2) vs righies he is not swing at pitches middle in – last year heatmaps showed a red blob in the middle now its all a dull yellow

It seems that hit plate discipline/pitch recognition is a bigger culprit that his shoulder/thumb

Paul
Guest
Paul
4 years 1 month ago

My initial thought was that pitchers have made an adjustment and he’s just stubbornly sticking to his approach, or just not able to adjust. With a few years under his belt now, if either one of those is the culprit rather than injury, it may give credence to the trade rumors.

Which makes this a really fascinating issue relating to his trade value. They’d be damn foolish to trade him for anything less than a major haul at least on the scale of what they gave up for Cahill (deal headlined by a top prospect starter). But then a trading team will need to be really confident that he’s just hurt and they may be able to get him for a minor bargain.

This seems like an absolutely tailor-made AA scenario.

Ruggiano's Pizza
Guest
Ruggiano's Pizza
4 years 1 month ago

Oh sure, because AA “the infallible” is the only GM with any brains whatsoever. Shut up AL East fanboy.

Keith Dunlap
Member
Keith Dunlap
4 years 1 month ago

His approach at the plate is different and I attribute it to the recent large contract. An excess of hubris has set in. If you look back at the last 3 years with Upton, pre-large contract, he came to the plate with the intention of making folks believe he belonged in the major leagues. He did this by coming to the plate with respect for the pitcher, a little scared/reticent if you will. This translated into focus and better production. You see this same concentration/focus currently with Goldschmidt, Bloomquist and Parra, three guys also trying to show that they belong. Now, post-contract, Upton comes to the plate with a “who the heck are you to pitch to me?” personna. He needs to show at least a modicum of respect for the pitchers he faces, come to the plate a little scared/apprehensive. Once he does, he’ll be more focused and the hits will follow.

Dreamin
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Dreamin
4 years 1 month ago

Um, you know he signed his current contract in ST of 2010, right?

NS
Guest
NS
4 years 1 month ago

Shameful nonsense.

Keith Dunlap
Member
Keith Dunlap
4 years 1 month ago

…yes, I know, currently in 3rd year of 6 year deal….

BWOzar
Member
4 years 1 month ago

Something to consider when citing ‘Pizza Cutter’s’ research is that the man himself (Russell Carleton) recently revised his study over at Baseball Prospectus…

channelclemente
Guest
4 years 1 month ago

Great analysis.

Drew
Guest
Drew
4 years 1 month ago

Keith is right; Upton needs to know his place. Once he re-learns who his master is, he’ll start pulling more fly balls with authority.

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