Kiley McDaniel FanGraphs Chat – 9/3/14

12:00
Kiley McDaniel: So this is my first FG chat and I have nothing snappy to say at the beginning. Everyone lower your expectations accordingly.
12:01
Comment From Bret
Hey Kiley – do the Jays have anything in Kendall Graveman?
12:03
Kiley McDaniel: Eh, kinda. I saw him about a month ago for Dunedin and he was 88-92, touch 93 with plus life, above average changeup with no usable breaking ball, but some feel and an okay cutter. A swing guy/spot start type for now but was never supposed to be this good.
12:04
Comment From Ringtone Composer
Welcom, Kiley! What’s your specialty?
12:04
Kiley McDaniel: Off color jokes that I never publish on the internet, rap references and really dry scouting reports!
12:04
Comment From The Oriole Bird
who was your favorite player you ever scouted?

12:05
Kiley McDaniel: Albert Almora in high school was my guy. I still believe, Albert!
12:05
Comment From Vic
Since Jose Fernandez jumped from High A to the majors, can the same happen for Urias where he sees 3 months of MLB time in 2015?
12:07
Kiley McDaniel: He’s definitely good enough but it’s up to the club to want to promote him like that. The Marlins are notoriously aggressive with prospects and promoted Fernandez right as he made adjustments. Urias made those adjustments this year and could easily succeed in AA. I guess we’ll see this off-season how much LA plans on having him in the rotation in 2015.
12:08
Comment From Cropper
I follow the Red Sox minor league activity thru Soxprospects.com. An infielder named Carlos Asuje,(sp), always seems to be doing something good. Any reports?
12:08
Kiley McDaniel: He’s tiny, bro. Like 5’7 or 5’8. He can hit and play 2B, but no power, not much bat speed and not much of a runner. Probably just an org fill guy.
12:09
Comment From LaLoosh
your omission of Preston Beck from the Rangers write up was a mild surprise. what’s your take on that?
12:09
Kiley McDaniel: No scout or executive, including multiple ones with the Rangers ever brought him up…so I’m okay with it!
12:10
Comment From Steve
What kind of prospect is Orlando Arica of the Brewers?
12:12
Kiley McDaniel: Saw him recently in the FSL as well. Good shot to stick at short, could hit around 10-12 homers and hit like .260…maybe a little more. Only 20 and has the broad stuff you’re looking for with some performance in Hi-A…so he’s that kind of prospect.
12:13
Comment From Ryan
Since you are the one who broke the Yankees IFA story, what would need to happen for the yankees to get their money worth? 1 or 2 regulars? Are you as high on these kids as the yankees are/were?
12:15
Kiley McDaniel: They spent basically $30 million and an average big league regular for one year is worth about $12 million right now. Add in the time value of money and some associated costs…I’d say if just one of those guys gives them the full 6 years of something like an everyday hitter it should be “worth it.”
12:16
Kiley McDaniel: That said, all the PR, possibly single-handedly speeding up the international draft and everyone giving extra scrutiny to these players…you’d like to get two useful everyday big league bats out of the class to be in the black on the investment.
12:17
Comment From Fish
How about this Pierre fellow the Phils just got from Toronto?
12:18
Kiley McDaniel: Gustavo Pierre, another guy I saw last week in the FSL. He’s 22 and still can’t hit but he’s got a huge arm. Scouts have been saying for years he should go on the mound because he’s a big athletic guy with a live body. Gotta think that’s coming soon.
12:18
Kiley McDaniel: I actually didn’t see that trade, so lemme go tweet that info.
12:20
Comment From Guest
Who’s your favorite prospect who doesn’t appear on org rankings right now?
12:20
Kiley McDaniel: It’s hard not to root for Cistulli favorite Alex Claudio
12:21
Comment From Cropper
Brian Johnson had an outstanding year @ Portland (AA). Doesn’t seem to have much of a fastball, so is he a MLB starter?
12:23
Kiley McDaniel: He’s got plenty. Flashed three 55 pitches with solid command in college, when I normally saw him 89-92 touching 94 mph. He isn’t very athletic so you wouldn’t think he’s a command type, but it works. Enough to get by when the stuff is just average. Also has a pretty good stick for insurance bench bat. 55 raw power from the left side.
12:23
Comment From Eminor3rd
Great work on these podcasts so far. Really enjoying the level of depth you are bringing to explaining what goes into your projections
12:23
Kiley McDaniel: And here I thought I was being too boring. Good to find another boring kindred spirit.
12:23
Comment From Keith Law
I can’t believe you left me.
12:24
Kiley McDaniel: YOU KNOW WHAT YOU DID
12:24
Comment From Farting for Science
Why do you think Bryant was the hitting prospect left off the list of players brought up to the MLB club?
12:26
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know, but these things aren’t purely merit based. May be service time? He’s also a 3B/RF tweener and you can’t sit Valbuena or Coghlan…he was in the AFL last year…maybe taking a break? Now I’m just guessing.
12:26
Comment From Guest
Thank you for the chat. How do you go about assessing ISO and BABIP in the high minors like
12:26
Kiley McDaniel: I look at it real close like
12:27
Comment From Bret
It obviously seems like the Jays have rushed several of their prospects this year. I imagine Dalton Pompey isn’t quite big league ready yet, but how far away is he? What’s a reasonable outcome for him?
12:28
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about this yesterday! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… I’d send him to AA or AAA for 2015.
12:28
Comment From Vic
Which player of the Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, Travis Snider mold could you see living up to potential in 2015? Think Ryan Ludwick the year he hit 30+HR.
12:28
Kiley McDaniel: You need new hobbies, bro.
12:28
Comment From Pat
Speaking of lowered expectations, where do most people see Mark Appel going forward? What do the AA stats mean following the A+ stats?
12:29
Kiley McDaniel: The stats don’t mean anything. His stuff is back and I’ll see him in Ocotber in the Fall League to check it out for myself. If the stuff stays back he’s a #2 starter.
12:29
Comment From Roger
Can we please have a section dedicated to prospect coverage so that articles are easier to find once they roll off the front page?
12:29
Kiley McDaniel: That is in the works, sir.
12:30
Comment From Tavon Awesome
Which specs have seen their stock drop the most this season?
12:30
Kiley McDaniel: I have a friend that calls prospects PSPEX when he texts me for fantasy advice. What’s the call on this guy? Innovator or the worst?
12:31
Comment From Pale Hose
Hi Kiley. Can you explain why I should care about raw power if it doesn’t factor into a game?
12:32
Kiley McDaniel: Because it can. I know delusional fans read this stuff closely and they want to know what’s POSSIBLE so I’m telling you. Plus, hitting the ball a long way and figuring out who hits it the longest way is fun on it’s own so shut up and knock it off.
12:32
Comment From Tom
Kyle Zimmer will pitch for Omaha in the PCL playoffs. Is there any legit chance he comes up for the Royals’ stretch run?
12:33
Kiley McDaniel: While Ned Yost is treating Brandon Finnegan like a child playing football with a faberge egg, why not include Zimmer, too??!!!
12:33
Comment From This Guy
Why are people still thinking Kris Bryant will be better than Jorge Soler?? Soler’s plate discipline is already better than most professionals. Combined with his power, Soler makes Bryant look like Baez.
12:34
Kiley McDaniel: Who’s got two thumbs and isn’t interested in my opinion THIS GUY
12:34
Comment From Daniel
The Royals, Mariners, and Tigers are fighting for two playoff spots. Who do you think gets them?
12:34
Kiley McDaniel: Probably CORPORATE AMERICA AMIRITE
12:34
Comment From bonder
Who’s better over the next 5 years, Pompey or Rusney Castillo?
12:34
Kiley McDaniel: Castillo and not even close.
12:34
Comment From LaLoosh
Your opinion of Dixon Machado? ML glove, bat coming?
12:36
Kiley McDaniel: Talked to Cistulli about this offline a few days ago. He told me to check his numbers and I was shocked. Like the glove and about to call scouts to see if the stats are for real. I’m thinking Ronny Cedeno is my hedged guess on the outcome now…and it was AAA shortstop that can’t hit before this year so that’s an upgrade.
12:36
Comment From Tomas
How will Texas sort out their logjam at middle infield? Is Odor’s stock up or down after the year he has had? His numbers are pedestrian but playing in the bigs at 20 counts for something I suppose?
12:38
Kiley McDaniel: These sorts of things tend to work themselves out. Once Profar is healthy they can trade Odor, but don’t have to and can wait for the right spot.
12:38
Comment From person hscer
so has Dave relieved himself of riff-raff mingling duties?
12:39
:

Unfortunately, Dave is still busy trying to find this guy.

12:39
Comment From This Guy
Which non-contending team is the most dangerous down the stretch?
12:40
Kiley McDaniel: THE ONE YOU LEAST EXPECT
12:40
Comment From Ed
Saw a report that says the Cubs will let Schwarber take some time to learn / develop as a catcher. Good move? Does he have a chance in the bigs behind the dish?
12:40
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve said all along he can be a once a week starter back there and maybe even the backup for an aggressive team.
12:40
Comment From Nick
Can Tim Anderson stick at shortstop? If not, which position is ultimate destination? Secondbase seems to be blocked with Micah Johnson, Marcus Semein, and Carlos Sanchez.
12:40
Kiley McDaniel: I think yes. REALLY good athlete.
12:42
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Jacoby Jones, does the plate discipline profile wreck any chance of him making it as a starter?
12:42
Kiley McDaniel: It’s better than I thought it would be in pro ball but it’s still a worry, yes. Tools are outrageous tho.
12:43
Comment From Guest #2
Will Jameson Taillon be worth the wait? (i.e., holding on to him through his TJ recovery and eventual assent to the Majors)
12:44
Kiley McDaniel: But what are you waiting for, did he promise you a date or something? Big league per diem is pretty sweet.
12:44
Comment From Guest
I just looked at Jeter’s bbref page and under awards it lists all his baseball stuff and then “11th greatest world leader” with a link to a Fortune article declaring him such. Is that the most ridiculous thing you’ve heard all day?
12:44
Kiley McDaniel: No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
12:45
Comment From Kendrick Lamar
Is Parker Bridwell ever going to put it together?
12:45
Kiley McDaniel: That depends on what your definition of it is
12:45
Comment From CuriousGeorge
Where did you goto undergrad/ when did you graduate?
12:45
Kiley McDaniel: UCF
12:46
Comment From c
Could Luis Severino start in the majors as early as next year? Does he gain consistency in his slider to make it a plus pitch?
12:46
Kiley McDaniel: The hype train on him is a little out of control. He’s a lot more like Rafael DePaula than Yankee fans want to hear. I’m gonna hide behind my couch for a minute until this passes.
12:46
Comment From Darth Stout
Javy Baez is 21 and he’s always struggled at a new level before adapting and dominating. On the other hand… 10/1 K/BB. WOOF. Are you worried?
12:47
Kiley McDaniel: I comp’d his plate discipline to Buzz’s Girlfriend.
12:47
Comment From bonder
Could Brandon Finnegan be Marcus Stroman?
12:49
Kiley McDaniel: Well, I mean I’ve never seen them in the same room at the same time.
12:50
Kiley McDaniel: And we were all shocked that Finkle was Einhorn (and Einhorn was Finkle).
12:51
:
12:51
Kiley McDaniel: Using that same logic, we can rule out Marcus Stroman being Waka Flocka Flame, which busted up a lot of conspiracy theory fantasy leagues.
12:52
Comment From Bubber Jonnard
Thanks for chatting, Kiley! Any thoughts on Rob Kaminsky’s eventual upside? When I saw him (twice) he consistently induced weak contact, was 91-93 with the FB, and seemed to utilize the curve & change very well — for a teenager in the Midwest League at any rate. Decent chance to be a 2/3 down the road? Thanks again.
12:53
Kiley McDaniel: Given the lack of plane and physical projection, scouts round it more to a #3 starter…but some hang a 65 or 70 on the curveball. Heard his velo was down earlier this year, so interested to hear what happened when I double back to do the Cards list.
12:53
Comment From Matt
Now that he has passed away and moved into the afterlife, Do you know/have any stories about Jason Parks? How long before he is in the Cub’s HR office after making overtly sexual comments about a 16 year old Dominican Shortstop?
12:53
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve known Jason for years and we’ve shared many a moments together that I can’t describe on the internet for legal reasons.
12:54
Comment From Robert
Out of the Angels’ thin system, do you think they could get 3 quality starters out of Newcomb/Sanchez/Green?
12:54
Kiley McDaniel: Getting 3 out of 3 pitching prospects that aren’t in the upper levels to turn into something…yeah that ain’t happenin
12:55
Comment From Kennys G
What is Hunter Harvey’s current status? Odds that he escapes surgery?
12:55
Kiley McDaniel: At some point? Pretty low, I’d guess. Not a lot of miles on the arm and the velo jumped after signing. BAL has been careful and cleaned up the delivery…but it’s hard to expect nothing goes wrong here.
12:56
Comment From Tim
Do you answer fantasy baseball questions?
12:56
Kiley McDaniel: Let’s ask one of the fellow readers of this chat what he thinks…
12:56
Comment From John
This is a fucking waste of time, people send legit questions, and you answer half of them with attempts at humor which wouldnt be bad if you also included an attempt at an answer. Instead you act like a jack-off because of how certain questions are worded. I won’t be back for garbage like this.
12:56
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll call that a qualified yes.
12:57
Comment From Jays fan
What is your take on Osuna in the Jays system as he tries to re-establish himself post tommy john?
12:59
Kiley McDaniel: Just saw him a couple days ago. Velo is up, 93-96 early, was told he hit 97 in other starts. Cutter flashed plus and slider is 55 as is the change. Delivery is okay but all top half and the command came and went, velo settled in low 90s. He’s improved but not quite sure what this turns into.
1:00
Comment From Fred
Do you think that Christian Walker has a chance to be a solid regular player, or are we Orioles fans just getting over-excited because we haven’t seen many legit hitting prospects in a long time?
1:00
Kiley McDaniel: More of a platoon type, but I didn’t think he’d move this quickly so what do I know?
1:00
Comment From zmiko
Thoughts on Tyler Anderson?
1:01
Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a bunch about him a few days ago http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
1:01
Comment From GIla Monster
You have to explain to a fan of a team that one of their top pitching prospects in “probably a bullpen arm” without them jumping off the ledge. How? A lot of fans seem to think bullpen arms come out of nowhere.
1:03
Kiley McDaniel: It’s some weird version of 1) they find their self worth in lording “their prospects” being better than some other fan/teams’ and/or 2) they take my lower than expected projection to somehow mean they can’t satisfy their wife…or something. For the record, #2 is what I’m aiming for.
1:03
Comment From Out Of Left Field
Are you related to Lindy?
1:05
Kiley McDaniel: I get this a lot. Ben Lindbergh and I like to compare notes on 1) how to roll up our sleeves without creasing out shirts and 2) the best eps of Millionaire Matchmaker, which is all of them. We also are told we look alike but in fact we are not related, though both strikingly good looking in similar ways.
1:06
Kiley McDaniel: Also, Ben linked to a shirt in the Astros team store from his last Grantland article about Bo Porter. I’m so confused by this shirt.
1:07
:

So the front basically says “we might not be good this year, but we will be good soon because we’re being smart and we’re going to try our hardest to be good right now, but let’s not expect too much, because we’re being smart, remember?”

1:08
:

Then the back says “ALL THAT MATTERS IS WINNING IGNORE THAT NERD ON THE FRONT SLOGANS YELLING FOOTBALL LETS GET OUT THERE AND INTIMIDATE THE BALL OVER THE FENCE GO TEAM”

1:08
Kiley McDaniel: That’s how I read it at least…am I alone on this?
1:09
Comment From Keeper
Welcome to the party Kiley! I’m a 20 team h2h dynasty league. We get to roll over 3 minor leaguers. Highest ceiling, lowest floor out of Aaron Judge, Andrew Heaney, Alexander Reyes and Matt Wisler. Who do I cut.
1:09
Kiley McDaniel: ?????
1:09
Comment From Prospecter
Kiley, how can someone get on your staff?
1:09
Kiley McDaniel: There’s a funny way and a serious way to comment on this. You guys write zingers for the funny way and I’ll publish them. The serious way is tweet me @kileymcd or email kiley.mcdaniel at gmail
1:10
Comment From Cropper
Did any of your scouting cover Rusney C? Seen reports of him as Little Puig to a .235 hitting 4th outfielder.
1:10
Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about this guy earlier, too. 4th OF is his floor and he could be really good http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
1:11
Comment From Wobatus
People didn’t cotton to the Mark Ellis comp on Dilson but that’s a good career to emulate. Several 3-4 WAR seasons or at that pace per 150. Of course he got started in the majors much later.
1:11
Kiley McDaniel: You’re supposed to think I insulted your manhood, doof.
1:11
Comment From pr
Whose better long term: Norris or Stroman?
1:11
Kiley McDaniel: I’m an irrational Stroman guy but I know a few scouts would say Norris and strongly.
1:12
Comment From Jay
Any thoughts on Jake Lamb’s first taste of the bigs?
1:12
Kiley McDaniel: Could use some mint jelly.
1:12
Comment From Carlos William Carlos
Thanks for the chat, Kiley. Is Randal Grichuk the kind of guy who could put up 1.5 – 2 WAR per year in 300-400 PA’s, provided 60-70% of his at-bats come against southpaws? He looks good in the field, and throws well, but doesn’t seem like he’ll ever hit a decent breaking pitch from a righty. Thanks for taking my question.
1:13
Kiley McDaniel: I was shocked how much scouts liked this guy after the Angels basically gave him away. More than a few like him more than the dearly departed James Ramsey. Guys are hanging 50 OFPs on this guy and he’s in AAA with upside for more. It’s kinda crazy.
1:13
Comment From Doug
I remember you were big on Dozier this offseason, or at least big enough to put him your top 100 unlike everyone else, are you concerned by the time in AA? Change his future outcome? What do you see it as?
1:13
Kiley McDaniel: Not worried, still like him.
1:13
Comment From DB
When watching a player for the first time live, what are some things you look for besides the obvious speed, swing, stuff, etc. Some things about how the carry themselves? Specific footwork stuff?
1:14
Kiley McDaniel: I’m writing about this in the coming days from a scouting perspective. In general, athletic actions.
1:14
Comment From Steve
Random question but what is your background in baseball? Howd you get started? Any tips?
1:15
Kiley McDaniel: Bothered people in front offices until they gave me a job, kept learning/working in new departments, ended up on the internet against my will and now I kinda like it.
1:15
Comment From Dodgers
Corey Seager has been mashing at AA with a .345/.381/.534 line, what are your thoughts on the Dodgers’ situation at short with Seager, Arruebarena, and a resigned Hanley going forward?
1:16
Kiley McDaniel: Seager isn’t a big league shortstop, maybe only in a short-term fill-in sort of way. He’s a 3B. And it’s not like I can guess who LA is gonna sign next so who knows when/where he fits.
1:16
Comment From DB
How many live games to you catch a year?
1:17
Kiley McDaniel: In general, one per day during the season…maybe a little less now with all the list writing at home but plenty of amateur stuff when the big guys aren’t playing so maybe it evens out.
1:17
Comment From Rays 7th Infielder
Based on your tweet last week of Dewon Brazelton throwing a chocolate fountain (http://tinyurl.com/np3md9b), do you think Archie Bradley could improve his overall standing in MLB by adding a plus dessert pitch to his repertoire? Perhaps the knuckle from a lattuced applie pie would have enough break to be a swing and miss pitch?
1:19
Kiley McDaniel: Vin Scully: “Bradley is an impressive young arm and THERE IT IS THE FLAMING CHERRIES JUBILEE. What a delightful, delicious and dangerous out pitch for the young right hander. Yasiel Puig is currently begin extinguished by field personnel. Matt Kemp coming to the plate, smartly sporting a hazmat suit…”
1:19
Comment From DB
Biggest difference between scouting someone on video versus seeing them live?
1:20
Kiley McDaniel: Basically everything
1:20
Comment From Benji
So what is ur speciality or favorite things to cover, prospects, majors, advance numbers, fantasy?
1:20
Kiley McDaniel: PSPEX
1:20
Comment From Pale Hose
the worst
1:20
Kiley McDaniel: Whoops.
1:21
Kiley McDaniel: I see your question, Prison Mike, but I won’t print it because I’m a nice guy. Have I become one of the guys yet?
1:21
Comment From Randall Simons Sausage Race
Is WAR calculated with a league-average replacement level for each position? Or does it measure each player’s replacement level given their team’s roster/minor league-rs? (i.e., could two players of the same position, with the same stats, have different WAR?)
1:22
Kiley McDaniel: I am definitely not the one to ask about this
1:22
Comment From Nils
Will Steven Moya keep up his 1.000/1.000/1.000 line in the Majors? What is his realistic ceiling?
1:22
Kiley McDaniel: He’s an 80 now and will always be an 80 because STATS
1:22
Comment From Cropper
Swihart / Vazquez…who do you keep? (Or keep both)?
1:22
Kiley McDaniel: Swihart has way more offensive potential
1:23
Comment From Hank
Houston arms, rank em’ and go: Appel, McCullers, Velasquez, Tropeano.
1:23
Kiley McDaniel: Flip 2 and 3 but very close. Wait, where do I go?
1:23
Comment From Wonder Mike without Hank
Nomar Mazara seemed to handle the in-season jump from low-A to AA with shocking aplomb, especially for a guy who’ll STILL be just 19 on Opening Day NEXT YEAR. (Sorry, don’t know how to italicize for emphasis.) Strictly from a hitting standpoint, does his (realistic) potential rival his teammate Gallo’s? Could Nomar II be a .280-.290 guy with 25-30 bombs in his prime? Thanks, Kiley!
1:23
Kiley McDaniel: I already wrote about this, too! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
1:24
Comment From this guy
who would you rather have between schwarber and conforto?
1:25
Kiley McDaniel: I go back and forth. Schwarber has more power and should be able to catch every now and then but Conforto has more bat speed and will probably walk more…but is probably 1B only now.
1:25
Comment From Anton
What stats do you look at for minor leaguers?
1:25
Kiley McDaniel: Not really any of them. I like to look at BB/K since that explains a skill that’s hard to take from a couple games but I trust my look for hit/power way more than stats at basically every level
1:26
Comment From J
Are major league hitting/pitching coaches better than their minor league counterparts? Gut feeling is that you’d want the best coaches to help the most impressionable players.
1:27
Kiley McDaniel: Baseball is backwards this way. Some teams think their best guys are their rovers and they can impact the most players. That said, most teams have their best guys in teh big leagues and most teams have their best scouts at upper levels/MLB while amateur has entry level guys…but amateur there is way more to gain with good scouts than at AAA/MLB. It’s a seniority thing that’s hard to get away from on a large scale.
1:27
Comment From Gary
Jesse Winker have a chance to be an above regular?
1:27
Kiley McDaniel: If the hit/power tools really work, yes. Not a whole lot else otherwise, but arm for RF.
1:28
Comment From Steve
How did Tyrone Taylor look on your FSL tour? Can he stick in center?
1:28
Kiley McDaniel: Yep, good athlete and plus runner. Could be a dude.
1:28
Comment From This Girl
Love the chat so far. You’re like a poor man’s Keith Law.
1:28
Kiley McDaniel: Well I am poorer than Keith Law so I might be that poor man as well.
1:29
Comment From Brazilianonlybaseballfan
What os your opinion on Henry Owens, can he ne an ace?
1:29
Kiley McDaniel: Nope, more 2/3 starter but there are very few even projected aces in the minors so don’t hit me.
1:29
Comment From Du Yarvish
Hope for rebound year for Tim Beckham/Hak Ju Lee?
1:29
Kiley McDaniel: Nope and Maybe
1:29
Comment From CuriousGeorge
what are your thoughts on Tyler Beede? so far stats look good between rookie and a ball. havent seen any of his starts though.
1:30
Kiley McDaniel: Tough eval. Maddening to some for lack of adjustments and mental/off the field stuff, but I saw him up to 98 with above average off speed…so hard to walk away from that.
1:30
Comment From Nils
Without just looking at the stats, did Lewis Brinson take a step forward this year developmentally?
1:31
Kiley McDaniel: Still in that same range of “needs to hit” but hasn’t hit enough yet to convince people he can hit.
1:31
Comment From Guest
If Bogarts went back into the prospect list, how high would he rank on the list based on the eyes of GMs? How high should he be ranked? Doesn’t have to be Bogarts in particular, just a top prospect with a poor first season.
1:32
Kiley McDaniel: That’s always a tough one because these guys don’t have context for how to rank those guys and don’t read lists with those guys on them, so it’s a lot of cop-outs when you talk about it. If that guy is on the trade block, they all have an opinion but I’m guessing Bogaerts isn’t getting shopped. Also matters how the market of that club impacts how they would rank established big leaguers vs prospects and ready to play prospects vs. A-Ball guys.
1:33
Comment From Rays 7th Infielder
Which pitcher should adopt a dessert-based delivery? Specifically in relation to your Brazelton tweet last week: http://tinyurl.com/np3md9b. To your knowledge, are any particular desserts better than others for the purpose of bat avoidance?
1:34
Kiley McDaniel: I got an email from twitter last night that my Brazleton chocolate fountain tweet got 2x the engagement my tweets about new 4000 word lists got. Who’s the j-off with no humor now, guy who commented earlier in this chat that i’m a j-off?
1:34
Comment From Eric
Have you heard anything about the rumors that the Red Sox will try to unload a bunch of prospects for Mike Stanton this offseason?
1:34
Kiley McDaniel: They’ve got a lot of inventory and I was just talking to an exec about how they have to move multiple guys. That would make sense.
1:35
Comment From Rich
Who is the next big international superstar we should keep an eye out for?
1:35
Kiley McDaniel: There’s a kid in the 2016 class in Venezuela that’s already turned down 7 figures. He’s 14.
1:35
Comment From Eli
Which side of the Corey Seager fence do you fall on? Can he stick at short for a few years?
1:35
Kiley McDaniel: short stints probably not long-term
1:35
Comment From Guest
When’s your next org ranking going to be posted? :)
1:36
Kiley McDaniel: Arizona and next week. Doing 20-80 scale stuff and draft things this week.
1:36
Comment From Wonder Mike and Hank
Does Sam Tuivailala have a secondary pitch? He seems to be on the Jason Motte Path(tm) of converted position players. (See David Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal, et. al.) Could Tooey be an MLB 8th/9th inning guy by, say, mid-2016? Thanks, Kiley!
1:37
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote this about him last month: Power reliever has hit 100 mph with an above-average breaking ball, but the feel and command can really wander at times
1:37
Comment From TimD431
Just have to say, I appreciate your off-color responses to questions like Finnegan/Stroman. It’s like the “I want to hang out with that guy” version of KLaw’s snark.
1:37
Kiley McDaniel: Thanks, unless you’re that j-off guy just baiting me for a better joke down the road
1:37
Comment From John
Why agree to this chat if you’re just going to be an idiot and not answer half the questions that you post in chat?
1:38
Kiley McDaniel: A CHAT IS A SACRED OATH YOU MAKE WITH THE TRUTH
1:38
Comment From That guy
So who is your comp in terms of other prospect evaluators? Remember, they have to be the same race and preferably the same height
1:39
Kiley McDaniel: This seems like a trap
1:39
Comment From Mad Science_PHD
Who is more likely to end up as the Sox CF next year, Betts, Castillo, or a surgical hybrid of Jackie Bradley Jr with Brock Holt sewn onto his back for batting purposes?
1:39
Kiley McDaniel: It’s surprising to me that the exec I talked to about Boston’s hitter surplus never brought up the surgical hybrid option. Market inefficiency!
1:40
Comment From Steve
Anyone better than Mike Matuella to be drafted #1 overall next year? (anyone not named Cameron or Rodgers.)
1:40
Kiley McDaniel: I was gonna say Rodgers but apparently I can’t. The top of the draft is very shallow right now, though that will change in the spring.
1:40
Kiley McDaniel: I hope.
1:40
Comment From Roger
Do you play fantasy baseball?
1:41
Kiley McDaniel: In the semifinals right now after winning the regular season and winning the whole thing last year. So, yeah, I play a bit.
1:41
Comment From Jackson
Does it concern you that Kiley is an attractive woman’s name? And less importantly, what do you think of Rymer Liriano’s potential as a corner outfielder?
1:41
Kiley McDaniel: Wait, should it concern me?
1:41
Comment From CuriousGeorge
when will this chat take place normally? aren’t you just filling in for someone this week?
1:42
Kiley McDaniel: Filling in for Dave, but he threatened me with a regular spot.
1:43
Comment From Beaucoup Bucks
It’s ok, John is a Mets fan.
1:43
Kiley McDaniel: That’s the j-off guy from earlier. Makes sense.
1:43
Comment From Rated Rookie
“I comp’d his plate discipline to Buzz’s Girlfriend.” What does that even mean? John’s reply is definitely internet-angry but his point is more or less on target.
1:44
Kiley McDaniel: Home Alone reference, bro.
1:44
1:45
Comment From CuriousGeorge
whoaa john is pissed off… dude just log off and relax bro. some of us need “garbage like this
1:46
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley’s Chat: Garbage Like This
1:46
Comment From Josh C
You’ve worked for the Yankees. Do they actually know how to draft?? as a fan im concerned..
1:46
Kiley McDaniel: Damon Oppenheimer is a saint and I won’t hear of this blasphemy.
1:46
Comment From Rated Rookie
In other words, don’t be all Cespedes Family BBQ. Snark is easy, especially when teed up on chat questions.
1:47
Kiley McDaniel: Wait, so don’t be funny? Or be more funny? I’m getting mixed messages.
1:47
Comment From Manzanillos Cup
Appreciate you doing this Kiley, but until we know your tone better you’re coming across as really hard to read. Was the “let’s ask a fellow reader” / “qualified yes” combo your way of saying “Yes, I’ll take fantasy questions” or a sarcastic yes that really means “You’ll have better luck asking Sullivan for his opinion?”
1:47
Comment From Guest
FREE INTERNET CHAT ROOM QUESTIONS ABOUT MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PLAYERS!!!!! THIS IS IMPORTANT!!!!! QUIT BEING SO GLIB!!!!!!
1:47
Kiley McDaniel: Man I am so confused right now.
1:48
Comment From Guest
Kiley, I saw your name on Fangraphs, and instantly thought a hot, Irish woman with awesome prospect knowledge joined the site.
1:48
Kiley McDaniel: Are you sure that isn’t what happened?
1:48
Comment From Naked Celebrity Photo
Thanks for the chat, Kiley! Reports I’ve heard out of Florida are quite positive on Jack Flaherty, and the 7-1 K/BB ratio is pretty sweet. On draft day it was said he *could* have 4 average-or-better offerings down the line — granted it’s a long line for an 18-year-old. Would you concur re the 4 good pitches?
1:49
Kiley McDaniel: Yep, it’ll probably become 3 but it’s a good body, good delivery, limited miles on the arm and good feel. Checks all the boxes short of being like Tyler Kolek or something.
1:49
Comment From Guest
If an Ace-level prospect ends up as a productive reliever, would you still call that a success?
1:50
Kiley McDaniel: 8th/9th inning guy yes, less than that no
1:50
Comment From Scioscias Lasagna
Upside for Sean Newcomb? 2/3 range?
1:50
Kiley McDaniel: Yep, but a long way to reach it
1:50
Comment From Kiley McDaniel
Hello impostor.
1:50
Kiley McDaniel: Uh oh.
1:50
Comment From Ron Swanson

Joc Pederson is up, Poloanco back up. Dropped Jay Bruce because Jay Bruce…what can I expect out of Pederson//Poloanco platoon ROS? Better than Bruce nightmare, right?

1:51
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t follow this comment at all but look at Ron dance!
1:51
Comment From Wobatus
What’s your take on Brendan Rodgers? Can he move up at the pace of an Addison Russell or doesn’t have that upside? I recall there was some thought pre-draft that Russell might not stick at ss.
1:52
Kiley McDaniel: actually not a bad comp and i love the cross racial aspect. Rodgers hits more consistently as an amateur while Russell had trouble with kids that threw in the 80s. Russell is faster but Rodgers may be a better defender. Also, Russell’s shoulders are like 14 feet apart, which I feel like I have to mention.
1:52
Comment From Grant
Maybe tone down the rude responses until people start to like you?
1:52
Kiley McDaniel: That ship has sailed
1:53
Comment From Cropper
Are you Blond? He was referring to Lindy McDaniel.
1:53
Kiley McDaniel: Kind of. I don’t know who that is.
1:54
Comment From Dave
So, just wondering, Asuaje got 65 extra base hits this year while being tiny and having no bat speed. He must have SOMETHING in order to hit .310 with 65 XBH, no?
1:55
Kiley McDaniel: I didn’t say no bat speed. He’s 22 in Low-A with advanced skills. This happens sometimes. I’d like to see more. He lasted til the 11th round for a reason.
1:55
Comment From TB
It does say we will be subjected to hacky attempts at humor…. Do you think Pirates should sign martin in the offseason, or let Tony Sanchez take over at catcher?
1:55
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve never been the high guy on Sanchez so I’d stick with a vet if that’s my option
1:55
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Is Luis Severino a top 25 prospect?
1:56
Kiley McDaniel: Nope
1:56
Comment From Jheffy
Dont say Stroman is a reliever
1:56
Kiley McDaniel: Perish the thought!
1:56
Comment From TB
I think the sure fire way to get on your staff is be a lady
1:56
Kiley McDaniel: We don’t have any on the prospect staff so I’m listening
1:56
Comment From Guest
Isn’t ‘Trust the Process’ the Royals term since 2006
1:57
Kiley McDaniel: I would go with Trust The Process Or Else
1:57
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Better Prospect, Jagielo or Aaron Judge? and why?
1:58
Kiley McDaniel: Gimme Judge. Saw them both a lot this year and Judge has 70 raw power and is 6’6 and still hitting…there’s more in there if he can change his approach to get to more power in games. Jagielo is okay at third but is more 50-55 hit/power for me. Judge needs a little more work but he could be really good.
1:58
Comment From Keeper
Let’s try this again. People are hyping up NYY”s Aaron Judges’ power but they say he has some big holes in his swing. Have you seen him hit?
1:59
Kiley McDaniel: Yes and I didn’t think he’d hit as much as he’s hitting right now based on what I saw as an amateur. He’s making improvements and he doesn’t have a hole per se but he is 6’6 so things happen.
1:59
Comment From TB
another way to get on the staff, athletic actions
1:59
Kiley McDaniel: Exactly.
1:59
Comment From Eminor3rd
Is Dave Cameron right that high velo guys with command issues are typically overrated? He lists Archie Bradley and Daniel Norris as examples
2:00
Kiley McDaniel: Scouting pitchers is so tied to arm speed this has to be true. There’s so many average stuff guys that are worth a few WAR per year that are never ranked anywhere. It kinda has to be this way, though.
2:00
Comment From Not Notre Dame Fan
You just “bothered people in front offices” until they gave you work? You’re heroic then, just like that guy Rudy in the football movie! No merit, all pester!
2:00
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley “No Merit” McDaniel
2:01
Comment From Joseph
What are your thoughts on Brett Phillips? Murdered the ball in Quad Cities and then has been even better after promotion to High-A.
2:02
Kiley McDaniel: Liked him in high school and when I was watching him take BP, he walked over to me, introduced himself and made me interview him. plus run/throw, fits in CF so it works if he makes contact. Not much power. Plus his middle name is Maverick so you can comp him to Sarah Palin.
2:02
Comment From Adam
Since Keith Law refused to address any Kyle Schwarber questions last week, what’s your take on him?
2:03
Kiley McDaniel: Refused! What is Keith hiding?! 50-55 hit, 70 power, LF/1B that can catch some. Has been pretty iffy in LF the past month, but I’ll give him a chance.
2:03
Comment From Eminor3rd
Most underrated dessert?
2:03
Kiley McDaniel: tres leches cake mmmmmmmm
2:03
Comment From Ryan
How soon before we see a write up about the Blue Jays system?
2:03
Kiley McDaniel: going worst to first so it isn’t coming soon
2:04
Comment From Matt
Hey I just met you
And this is crazy
But here’s my number
So call me Kiley
2:04
Comment From GIla Monster
Do you think it speaks to a players makeup when they struggle fora while and make adjustments? For example Gallo has been sticking out 40% of the time, but he has adjusted after struggling with his strikeouts before instead of becoming a strikeout black hole.. Gallo is also known as an a elite makeup guy
2:04
Kiley McDaniel: Bingo, big part of the puzzle.
2:04
Comment From LaLoosh
what?! Conforto 1B only?! WTF dude? You’re beginning to show some big cracks right in your 1st month!! Reports of Conforto playing LF have been very good so I don’t know where that comes from. And the arm is a big +
2:05
Kiley McDaniel: Arm was a 40 at times, is sometimes a 50 but never heard more than 50 before. I’ve seen him be atrocious out there many times. He’s a 40 runner at best that is limited laterally and is passable when he feels like it. I think he moves to 1B eventually. Crack that boss.
2:06
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Thoughts on Jorge Mateo? Seem to be a HUGE upside guy.
2:06
Kiley McDaniel: One of our new writers will debut soon with a report on this very player! Mateo plays near my house but by the time I was able to see him, he was on the DL.
2:06
Comment From Garth Vader
Teams going to regret letting Forrest Wall slip to 35th? I see a 2B who can hit, field, run, and has some pop. Shoulder scare that many off?
2:07
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about this in the Rockies list. I think if he’s a CF from day one, he doesn’t get past pick 20. Ridiculous industry-wide blind spot for HS 2B and couldn’t see that he was an exception http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
2:07
Comment From S
Did the Rays reach for Brent Honwywell?
2:08
Kiley McDaniel: Heard some fun stories about his makeup. He’s apparently insanely confident and has some colorful language no matter who he’s talking to. And the stuff has been good. I was surprised at the time but he was a late popup guy that looks like a solid pick now. Another team was going to take him right behind TB.
2:08
Comment From Guest
Got any comments on red sox international signings this year (july 2 guys)?
2:09
Kiley McDaniel: Espinoza could be a dude, he’s a smaller righty but advanced and has hit 97. Acosta isn’t bad, more of a projection guy.
2:09
Comment From Cubbie
Have you seen Billy McKinney play? Thoughts?
2:10
Kiley McDaniel: Just saw him recently. it isn’t good right now. I haven’t been the high guy on him but it’s 4th OF right now for me. Hoping I heard otherwise from scouts that saw him earlier.
2:10
Comment From Fish
How has he already turned down 7-figures? With what league?
2:10
Kiley McDaniel: The Major Leagues!
2:11
Comment From Willy Aybar
You mentioned the possibility of Texas trading Odor earlier in the chat — would they be better off giving away Elvis Andrus and using his $15M per year elsewhere while keeping Odor, or keeping Elvis and using Odor to acquire cost-controlled talent at another position?
2:11
Kiley McDaniel: Harder to move him with that contract
2:11
Comment From Lloyd Bentsen
I’ve known some J-offs. Some J-offs have been friends of mine. You, Kiley, are no J-off.
2:11
Kiley McDaniel: Thanks, Mom.
2:11
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Why does every writter on FG say that they are poor? Does this job not pay?
2:12
Kiley McDaniel: I said poorer than Keith. He’s on TV!
2:12
Comment From Dr. Met
Don’t lump all Mets fans together please, we’re not all Jagoffs like Philly fans
2:12
Kiley McDaniel: Controversy!
2:12
Comment From Matt
I LOVE YOU KILEY MCDANIEL
2:12
Comment From Rated Rookie
Your writing is smart and your analysis is insightful. Snark is not humor and eliding the difference between the two makes for a lot of noise.
2:12
Kiley McDaniel: Was that a riddle?
2:13
Kiley McDaniel: Wait, I got it. It was Colonel Mustard in the Conservatory with the Revolver.
2:13
Comment From Hate watching
I’m going to live tweet this chat next time. Lemme know when the next one is.
2:13
Kiley McDaniel: okay?
2:13
Comment From Dr. Met
Do you really sound like Bryce Harper in real life?
2:14
Kiley McDaniel: That’s a clown leading comment bro
2:14
Comment From Matt
KILEY, DON’T LET THE HATERS BRING YOU DOWN. KEEP DOING YOUR THING. I LOVE YOU KILEY MCDANIEL
2:14
Comment From Guest
Home Alone reference = gold. It takes a few chats for us to figure out a writer’s sense of humor, their wheelhouse for pop-culture references, etc.
2:14
Kiley McDaniel: I think all the haters left and I don’t blame them I’ve been talking for too long.
2:15
Comment From Marco
I searched for “Kiley” on Google images and first hit is a blond girl with huge boobs named Kiley Fox.
2:15
Kiley McDaniel: thanks?
2:15
Comment From Matt T.
You appear to be funny and I wish you would inject your humor into your scouting reports. They are a bit dry.
2:16
Kiley McDaniel: I’m trying! I try to be concise and don’t want to write a one liner for each guy, so I brought in Carson for that.
2:16
Comment From Turned on
I like the rudeness… quite exilorating ;)
2:16
Kiley McDaniel: Is there where I say Yup, there are my readers?
2:16
Comment From Dr. Met
Best comp for this chat so far… still Bryce Harper. Loads of talent and potential yet still not mature enough yet to show the results expected by the salivating community. Also says Bro a lot.
2:17
Comment From Mike
People still say “bro” outside of a frat house?
2:17
Comment From Adam
Be funny. But not too funny.
2:17
Comment From Cole
Is Bradley Zimmer a better prospect than Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey?
2:17
Kiley McDaniel: I think so. Loved him as amateur.
2:17
Comment From Statdude
What are some tips for a college student trying to get into the scouting game?
2:18
Kiley McDaniel: Go to games, meet people in the industry, be nice, be available, use any no, direct or implied as motivation BECAUSE YOU’RE THE BEST
2:18
Comment From Rated Rookie
“Florida? But that’s America’s wang!”
2:18
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Is there ANY hope left for Slade Heathcott? Even as a 4th OFer?
2:19
Kiley McDaniel: He’s one of those guys where when he’s hitting scouts lead with “check out the tools!” and when he isn’t hitting it’s always “yeah but i heard the makeup is terrible”. Lots of makeup comments recently.
2:20
Comment From Baseball ROCKZ
Tell us about your best Tinder date.
2:21
Comment From Guest
Do you realize that at your current rate of publishing the org lists you won’t finish until like the all star break next year?
2:21
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t ruin this for me
2:22
Comment From Mike
what did you have for lunch
2:22
Kiley McDaniel: Chipotle the answer like half the baseball industry would give you
2:22
Comment From Sam
How much do scouts get paid? 40k/year?
2:22
Kiley McDaniel: give or take. first couple years usually in the 30s
2:23
Comment From Haterz
We’re still here… Douche.
2:23
Comment From Matt Damon
MATT DAMON!!
2:23
Comment From Roger
Kiley McDaniel scouting report: Prospect Knowledge 80/80, Humor 35/50.
2:23
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take it!
2:23
Comment From UCF Fan
Jordan Akins just went back to WR at UCF after being drafted. Why didn’t he pan out in the pros?
2:23
Kiley McDaniel: Couldn’t hit but now he’s where God wants him scoring touchdowns for the greatest football team in creation except for that game they just lost
2:24
Kiley McDaniel: Okay that’s all for me. Finished my Chipotle, headed back for another burrito. Next week you guys need to come with a united front of advice for how I should best entertain you (which I’ll ignore).



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Kiley McDaniel has worked in the scouting departments of the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates and has written for ESPN, among other outlets. Follow him on twitter for real-time thoughts on the players he’s seeing and hacky attempts at humor.


30 Responses to “Kiley McDaniel FanGraphs Chat – 9/3/14”

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  1. John says:

    What a waste of time, today was a clown show. People word questions a certain way, and rather than answering the question this guy makes some unfunny comment and doesn’t actually answer half the questions that are being posted here.
    I mean the guy could work on his stand-up routine while still answering the questions, but he doesn’t.

    No reason to ever come back for a KM chat.

    -8 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. LaLoosh says:

    well that chat rated an A for controversy, with a C for content… so a decent substitute for Dave.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jeremy Russell says:

    That was an incredibly disappointing chat.

    +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Rawson Baggs says:

    Lindy McDaniel, one of the McDaniel brothers: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1008441&position=P

    Shame on you.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. knic27 says:

    Thanks for the chat! It sucked!

    +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Jimmer says:

    I loved this chat! I love it when people get all worked up about how people chat…especially when they don’t pay a dime to read the chat or to post a question that is hopefully answered. It’s like, ‘I want your answer, I want it now, I want it to agree with my opinion, and I want it respectfully. What? You want me to ask questions that can be understood? WHY?! I want my money’s worth! Give me what I want and how I want it!

    Makes perfect sense until you realize there’s bunches of people on the chat and they all have their own idea on how the chat should go:-)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. OriLOLes Rotation says:

    Never change Kiley. If anything, the butthurt in the comments section is just a little more residual entertainment after the chat is over.

    +9 Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Michael says:

    I thought the chat went fine, and Kiley obviously is an expert on prospects. With that said, it has been getting a little annoying listening to the podcasts and reading this chat, where he constantly tries to be funny. I’m all for humor, it’s just, he’s trying a little too hard.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. IndianaMike says:

    Loved the chat. Let the haters keep hating. Your prospect analysis is appreciated by people like myself who rarely get to see many prospects outside of our own teams system.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Burr says:

    I just read through this chat after work and — wow. You beg MLB teams for a chance, and you get it. You are supremely fortunate to be one of the few people exposed to certain knowledge, which is why people take the time to ask you questions and value your input. Your readers are passionate, and they take time and thought to pose these questions. You should be honored that so many people are so genuinely interested in your perspective. It is downright ugly to take 50% of these people’s questions and twist them into an empty avalanche of wordplay — and then hide behind the notion that a “free chat” in any way excuses quality or decency.

    Be funny, fine. A lot of people do seem to appreciate your humor. But above all — please answer each question to the best of your ability.

    +10 Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Simon says:

    The butthurt here is enormous. This must be where everyone who whines when Keith Law mocks them is hiding.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. JB says:

    Wow, what a waste of time reading through all that garbage. If FanGraphs needs anybody else to do a chat where the host insults people instead of answering baseball questions, I’m available and would probably be pretty good in that role.

    What an embarrassment to the site that was.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. just me says:

    GREAT chat Kiley. Entertaining, AND answered a ton of questions… hell, it went for 2.5 hours! And people are complaining? WTF?

    BTW, “I’ll call that a qualified yes.” hilarious!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. dose17 says:

    I thought the chat was awesome. It was a great mix of baseball knowledge and Kiley being in on people getting pissed at him, which for me is a recipe for entertainment. He was fanning the flames, so to speak, and I loved that.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. JB says:

    Yeah, I would have found that chat interesting and funny about 12 years ago when I was 20. Now, not so much. Just the typical douchebaggery that kids today enjoy partaking in.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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