Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/9/14

Comment From Jake
Prospects chat whoooo

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t have a snappy intro this week either so luckily Jake stepped in with a whoooo

Comment From Jake
In general, how long does it take for seven figure+ international prospect signings to start showing up in the minor league system/prospect rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: Some of the top guys will go straight in there, like Pedro Gonzalez did for the Rockies, but I don’t think any of them will get into the 45 FV category unless I hear some crazy good reports from instructs. Jurickson Profar got crazy good instructs reports right after he signed, for context.

Kiley McDaniel: Also, we moved today’s chat to 11 since I’m going to the PIT-NYY instructs game at 1 and NYY has most of the July 2nd guys on the roster. Not sure what the lineup will be for today, tho. Follow me on twitter and I might tell you.

Comment From Jake
Whoooooooooooooo!

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, Jake.

Comment From Christian
I came for the controversy, but I’ll stay for the analysis…

Kiley McDaniel: You’re gonna be waiting awhile

Comment From Hank
Thoughts on Greg Bird (NYY)? Ceiling/ETA? Legit prospect or eventual AAAA type guy?

Kiley McDaniel: 60 raw power and feel to hit. Scout comped him the Nick Johnson minus the fragility last year. I saw him this year and haven’t found reason to disagree

Comment From Jake
What do you make of Peter O’Brien?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about him a few days ago! Can either go to the list http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… or his player page http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Kiley McDaniel: This is a good time to mention that over 130 player pages have full tools breakdowns, including all the players I’ve ranked for the three orgs I’ve written up, all 2014 first rounders and who the FG prospect writers have written up

Comment From Jake
Thanks for your time, Kiley. Higher FV, Severino, Judge, Jagielo? Where are all three?

Kiley McDaniel: All will be 50 or 55 I’d guess and I think I’ll have them Judge, Severino, Jagielo but haven’t made any calls on that yet.

Comment From Jeff Wiser
What’s up Kiley? Thanks for the time this morning. How concerned should Dbacks fans be re: Bradley’s command issues? Do we buy the “he was pressing” narrative or is this a legit, long-term concern?

Kiley McDaniel: We may find out this fall in the AFL. There are definitely some rumblings that ARZ people think he’s a bullpen guy and not their top prospect, even though all I was told by ARZ people is things will come around.

Comment From Jake
Say the first pick of the 2015 draft was a FA. What would he sign for?

Kiley McDaniel: $30-50 million would be what the numbers tell you market value is, but we’re seeing with the Cubans that teams overbid relative to what the numbers say when there’s scarce, freely available young talent, so it may go higher than that on the right player.

Comment From Jake
Yasmani Thomas, over/under $100 mil?

Kiley McDaniel: $100M has only been agent bluster so far and before whatever body transformation he underwent, he was a stretch for $50M. I would bet $50-75M range.

Comment From Jeff Wiser
It seems the Dbacks lack the type of impact talent that they badly need. Who from the lower ranks has a chance to be an org-changer? Lots of potentially everyday guys down on the farm, but who has a chance to turn into something more?

Kiley McDaniel: Org Changer sounds like a worthy foe to Kick Puncher

Comment From JCA, CPA, CA
Who is your favorite prospect at the moment?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve written an awful lot about Dan Vogelbach recently. Favorite to watch, prob not guy I’m most high on relative to the industry per se.

Comment From Brian Scalabrine
Callis has Gallo above Sano in the rankings… how would you rank them relative to one another?

Kiley McDaniel: I would lean that way, but I’m making my Twins calls this week so that may change soon

Comment From Guest
first time realizing this exists and can’t say i could be any happier

Comment From Keanan
is he saying “who?” (but elongated) because he doesn’t know who you are?

Comment From what are you wearing?
is that jake from state farm?

Comment From Keith Law
Whoooooooo!!!!11!1!!11

Comment From Dude
Rafael Devers is a guy getting a ton of love. Have you seen him? Do you have any info? Think he can stay at 3b?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, saw as an amateur. chance to play 3B, advanced feel to hit from left side and 55 power. He’s legit but 3B isn’t a slam dunk…though most guys with his body type can drop a few lbs and get quicker once they’re 18-19 and more mature.

Comment From Nils
After this season, would you peg Jorge Alfaro’s ceiling to be the same as you thought prior to the beginning of the season?

Kiley McDaniel: Basically, yeah

Comment From Murphy
In a typical Dominican baseball academy, how many prospects would you guess get signed per year? I’m sure it changes year-to-year, but what would an average signing period look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Typically 15 or so with half of it on July 2nd. Some sign 10, some into the 20s. More teams have 2 DSL clubs now, so maybe the average is closer to 20.

Comment From Jeff
Obviously this is mostly conjecture on your part, but on average how many personnel does the average baseball academy in the DR have?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends what you mean. Coaches, players or extra staff?

Comment From neal
how do you define a #1-#5 starter? I often see talk of guys being a back end innings eater, or something of the like, but really most back end guys get booted from the rotation as soon as the team thinks they can have someone better take his place. Is it flawed to think of guys in terms of rotation spots?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s coming in the next week or so when I write up the pitching tools. I also talk about it in this week’s pod that comes out later today. It’s not flawed, it’s just tiers of talent that is called rotation spots.

Comment From Guest
I read your D’Backs review and my take is that you don’t feel Bradley is an ace going forward. Right?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be, likely won’t be. in fairness, I would say that about the ace question for 99.9% of pitchers in the minors tho.

Comment From Jordan
Devon Travis seems reminiscent of a pre-2014 Mookie Betts in that he has a flawless stat-line but does not get attention as a blue-chip prospect. Eventually Mookie’s performance got too good ignore and he received top 25 love from evaluators. Do you see this happening with Travis?

Kiley McDaniel: No. Nowhere near as quick twitch or loose.

Comment From Locke
When do you expect Kris Bryant to make his debut next year? Is there a chance he’s up before the super two deadline?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say no but sometimes you get surprised by these things.

Comment From Chris
It looks like J.P Crawford is going to be the eventual long-term replacement for Jimmy Rollins at SS for Philly. What does this do to Roman Quinn?

Kiley McDaniel: Was a 2B/CF all along

Comment From Kiley Fox
Without offense, my boobs are bigger than yours. So better for you to have some kind of ability or you won’t have money to buy food.

Comment From Scotty
You do a good job of explaining and going in detail on tools so I wanted to ask you this: Deception. Why is this so important and is it something that can be taught later on or does it just come from a pitchers natural mechanics he learned early on?

Kiley McDaniel: I need deception to convince Kiley Fox that I have a real, normal job and am a real, normal guy. Now to find out who Kiley Fox is.

Kiley McDaniel: Also, it’s mostly from your natural delivery/arm action. When people try to add deception later, it’s normally at the expense of something else.

Comment From Guest
How much do you resent having Cistulli’s guy in your posts?

Kiley McDaniel: That was my idea! I was trying to find a way to make room for the fringy guy while still doing a traditional list and also get a more fun tone to 5000+ word fact-a-thons

Comment From Eminor3rd
Tell me about Francellis Montas, please!

Kiley McDaniel: FRANCELLIS THROW HARD

Comment From Adam
Is Giles a legit closer prospect? Not sure if that counts as a prospect question.

Kiley McDaniel: Breaking ball and command were both a little short for me in limited looks, but he looks better than that now. Looks like he could be.

Comment From MookieMonster
Kiley, have you seen Yasmani Tomas play at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, I was in Durham last summer when his Cuban team faced Rodon and a bunch of other top 2014 draft pick types. He was roughly 6’0/240 and sluggish compared to what I had been told…but lots of money has motivated other Cuban players to get in crazy good shape as well. He’s a big, strong, slugger type.

Comment From Darryl P
Heard an argument that scouts often “over hype” pitchers by giving them 60 grade offerings currently even though they are in AA/AAA yet a 60 grade would mean it’s an above MLB average pitch and they could get major league hitters out now. When you give a 50 or 60 grade on a pitch, are you comparing it to the players current level or MLB level?

Kiley McDaniel: All 20-80 grades are always compared to MLB average for that tool

Comment From Mike
Christian Walker: future major league contributor or fringe guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Platoon guy is the industry consensus, with some thinking there’s a low end everyday guy there.

Comment From Sam Calagione
Though the Orioles seem determined to keep him there, from everything I can find on the interwebs it seems Chance Sisco has no business catching. Does the bat play elsewhere? Corner OF? (And does he have the athleticism to handle that?)

Kiley McDaniel: I saw him catch in ST and he looked fine back there. Haven’t made my Orioles calls but their guys were high on him across the board entering the year, haven’t heard anything to disagree with that yet.

Comment From Shaun
Jan Hernandez and Karsten Whitson…man. What happened to those guys…

Kiley McDaniel: Hernandez was always overhyped b/c he was a SS/3B from PR the year after Correa. He was never seen by the scouts that followed him closely as a top 50 pick guy at any point. Whitson got tight, injured and his stuff went down…that happens a lot.

Comment From Jake
Nick Johnson sans fragility, that’s high praise.

Kiley McDaniel: Is this Jake from State Farm?

Comment From Matt
More of a Major League asset at this point, but what grade did/ do you give Chris Owings overall?

Kiley McDaniel: 50 or 55

Comment From Robert
Wow, the tools breakdown is AWESOME! Great addition!

Kiley McDaniel: I know, right?

Comment From MookieMonster
Do you believe Raimel Tapia develops over the fence pop?

Kiley McDaniel: What does that mean? I never know what those types of comments are saying. Like, he could hit a HR in BP or hit 5? Or hit 8 HR in a year or 15?

Comment From John
Do you think Pompey is good enough to start in CF next year or should the Jays go out and sign a CF?

Kiley McDaniel: Should go to AA and/or AAA next year. Scouts don’t think he’s ready yet, even though I’m sure someone will point out he had good numbers.

Comment From Jake
Just a headsup, your work has made my favorite baseball site a hundred times better. Absolutely love what you’ve done, and what you’re doing.

Kiley McDaniel: You didn’t answer my question JAKE FROM STATE FARM I’m on to you

Comment From Paul
Does Miguel Sano have the defensive chops to stick at 3B?

Kiley McDaniel: hands/arm yes but size/lateral quickness is the issue and I’m guessing no by the time he’s in the big leagues. Most think its RF or 1B.

Comment From John
Just so ya know, Im sure people dont mind the witty replies as long as you also answer the question afterwards

Kiley McDaniel: But then I can’t court controversy!

Comment From Sammy
If you had to assign values on Bryant’s hit and power tools today, what would they be ? , does he remind you a bit of Goldschmidt or any other player ?

Kiley McDaniel: 50-55 hit and 70-75 raw but more like 65-70 game power

Comment From Keanan
based on their track record of having top prospects not pan out, do you think Jack Z. deserved his extension?

Kiley McDaniel: Based on a bunch of other stuff, many people in the industry thought Jack Z would’ve been gone at least a year ago. To his credit, the team has been better this year but many GMs wouldn’t have gotten this much rope.

Comment From Andrew
What is your take on Kris Bryant’s defense at 3rd? Keep hearing how suspect it is but he won a best defensive 3rd baseman award

Kiley McDaniel: You can ignore minor league defensive awards from any source. He’s been fine but still looks fringy at best, he’s long-limbed and a little awkward/slow on certain plays. He’s a RF down the line, but could play 3B for a bit if you have no one.

Comment From Nick
Is Jack Z like Jay Z

Kiley McDaniel: In every conceivable way. Jack/Felix = Bonnie/Clyde

Comment From STiVo
I consider myself an expert after reading your hitting tools articles. (Thanks for those!) Mookie Betts has a good hit tool, ya?

Kiley McDaniel: Ya

Comment From Controversy
Court me, baby

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
It seems to little ole me that the best pitching prospects are not the guys that blow the radar gun away (they typically end up as relievers–and there’s value there for sure!), but rather the guys will multiple plus pitches. Why do many scouting reports spend so much time gushing over upper-90s stuff? Is the thought that we can teach the other pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: What people that don’t follow this closely don’t realize is that the guys that throw 93-95 at ages 18-21 with decent mechanics/command throw 90-92 at age 27 by natural velo attrition and emphasizing command/movement…and that’s if they stay relatively healthy. Some guys are solid big league arms that are never prospects, but that doesn’t mean go out and pick a fringy stuff guy over the hard thrower. Multiple plus pitches as you present like an alternative to the hyped high 90’s guy is still always a highly ranked prospect. The underrated guy is the advanced feel of solid-average stuff guy that turns into a 4th starter for 10 years or leans a new pitch in AAA and turns into a different guy.

Comment From Rams
LOVE that fangraphs is getting more involved in the prospect world

Comment From Kurt
2015 dynasty draft for 2014 draftees and international signees…. Who are your top 5 talents?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d just go with the top 10 picks from the draft unless you tell me more than this

Comment From MookieMonster
Well, it seems like Tapia has gap power, he’s not a slap hitter by any means, but it doesn’t come across like he hits 20+ at the MLB level (assuming he gets there). Where do you grade his future power? (probably a better way of phrasing the question)

Kiley McDaniel: This is a great time to point out that I already did this: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… and if those numbers don’t make sense then head over here http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
is tyler glasnow a legit number 1 starter or will his control issues limit his upside

Kiley McDaniel: There are VERY few #1 starters in the minors. Glasnow is a 2/3. That’s really good.

Comment From Rams
who could be next years Rafael devers from this seasons international signees?

Kiley McDaniel: CF Juan De Leon of the Yankees, SS Adrian Rondon of the Rays, CF Brayan Hernandez of the Mariners and SS Pedro Gonzalez of the Rockies…although none of them are similar to him in a specific way, those are the most advanced bats from this year’s crop with enough tools for it to matter.

Comment From John
Are you going to speed up with the organizational rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: I could do it fast or I could do it right

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a reason I started so early

Comment From jaymes
could Brandon drury be an everyday major leaguer?

Kiley McDaniel: In fact I projected him to be that earlier this week! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From neal
Do you know anything about Kenta Maeda?

Kiley McDaniel: 4th starter type without big time standout pitch, but solid contributor that could fool some hitters his first time thru the league.

Comment From jaymes
is Adrian rondon the best international signee this year?

Kiley McDaniel: At this point, yes for most scouts, but opinion still varies a lot for 16 year olds

Comment From Locke
Prediction for #1 overall pick in next years draft?

Kiley McDaniel: SS Brendan Rodgers from Lake Mary HS near Orlando

Comment From Prospekt Guy
Mazara, ETA and are you as “wowed” with his skills as I hear you shoul be?

Kiley McDaniel: I also wrote about him recently! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Seriously people, go to my archives or go to the player’s page http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… and your question may already be answered.

Comment From Vslyke
My reaction when a Fangraphs writer makes a Kick Puncher reference: http://media.tumblr.com/tum…

Comment From Tylerville
Heard a scout say a guy has “innate bat to ball skills” but also has “some swing and miss in his game”. Isn’t that contradicting?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope. Bad approach doesn’t negate innate ability to square pitches up…that’s a physical ability. Such is the Nick Williams conundrum.

Comment From Faitelson
Have you seen Anderson Espinoza yet? Any recent reports?

Kiley McDaniel: He was locked down with a deal by the Winter Meetings and is in Venezuela, so no. I heard 89-93 and I heard from another guy that he hit 97. Only 5’10 or 5’11 but has feel and big stuff at 16, so excited to see him.

Comment From Jeff Wiser
For realz, do you think emoji scouting is the next frontier? I checked, emojiscouting.com is available…

Comment From jim
what are your thoughts on bobby Bradley? whats his ceiling/floor look like?

Kiley McDaniel: 50-55 hit and power, most likely at 1B so not huge upside, but very advanced and there’s an outside should for 60 bat.

Comment From Luca
Listen, a guy said to me that Blake Swihart is “Buster Posey with more defense”. I laughed really hard and I wanted to make you laugh as well because I like you.

Comment From Not Jake
He sounds hideous.

Comment From Pennsy
Is it fair to say teams are overbidding on Cuban players if they’re getting return on their value? Puig and Cespedes almost immediately became stars.

Kiley McDaniel: Overbidding relative to the cold math of what those sorts of players are like (which isn’t easy to calculate) and the industry consensus…though I guess most free agents sign for over the consensus price since that’s how the winner’s curse works.The industry laughed when Puig got all that money and he was overweight with no recent rack record and a circus around him. LA overpaid relative to his industry value at the time, with no evidence other teams were bidding close to that high.

Obviously, most of the recent Cubans have been good investments and that’s what’s pushing teams to pay at the top of what they think is acceptable and also what will get Tomas paid. The nature of market value is often players get very close to it, sometimes under/over it but it seems like every recent Cuban player has been going over and probably will keep doing so until there’s a couple busts.

Comment From Robert
Is there anywhere on the website where I can view a list of currently graded prospects all at once? I love the new grades on the player pages, but it would be great to be able to see them in list form for easy comparison between prospects.

Kiley McDaniel: More on this to come

Comment From Adam
What is it about Vogelbach that makes him your favorite to watch right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Seriously people, just go to his player page and click on articles about him written by me http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
are you going to do better this time? last time was PAINFUL

Comment From Jim
Urias, better option for the Dodgers than Roberto Hernandez right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Chris
Jack Z: He’s got 99 problems but a pitcher ain’t one

Comment From Kurt
Is Schwarber going to cut it at catcher in the bigs? How many games does he get there each year?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s a LF/1B that catches a couple times a month.

Comment From Rams
will you guys make your own top 100 list before next season?

Kiley McDaniel: If by you guys you mean me then yes and there’s no way it’ll be a round number like 100 i’m not beholden to the man

Comment From Dan V.
90 grade bat flip

Kiley McDaniel: Bingo

Kiley McDaniel: Well I’ve got an instructs game to go to. Later peeps.