Kuroda & Jackson: One-Year (Contract) Wonders
Prior to this past offseason, five of Dave Cameron’s top ten free agents were starting pitchers. Both CC Sabathia (#3) and C.J. Wilson (#5) landed mega-contracts while Roy Oswalt (#9) decided to take the Pedro Martinez/Roger Clemens route and sign midseason. The other two guys — Hiroki Kuroda (#8) and Edwin Jackson (#10) — signed nearly identical one-year contracts. Eight months later, they share another thing in common: they’re pitching for the team with the best record in their respective league.
Kuroda, 37, landed a $10 million salary from the Yankees. At 3.3 WAR, he’s already had the third-best season of his five-year MLB career and appears poised to zoom past his career-high 4.1 WAR from 2010. Jackson, 28, signed with the Nationals for $11 million, but is having a slightly down year by his standards. He’s at 1.6 WAR and seems likely to a) fall short of the 3.6-3.8 WAR level he’s established these last three years, and b) still provide the Nationals plenty of surplus value.
Both Kuroda and Jackson have given their teams exactly the kind of short-term and affordable rotation stability they were seeking when they handed out those eight-figure guarantees. Kuroda has been a bit better thus far, but the two have similar numbers overall…
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | K% | BB% | HR/CON†| Opp. OPS‡ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuroda | 167.0 | 2.96 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 18.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.754 |
| Jackson | 144.0 | 3.69 | 4.09 | 3.92 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 0.756 |
† HR/CON is homers per plate appearances with contact, so HR/(TBF-BB-K-HBP). That is perhaps the best way to measure a pitcher’s ability to limit the long ball. The MLB average this year is 3.8% HR/CON.
‡ Opp. OPS is the quality of the opposition, not what hitters have hit against our particular pitchers. For all intents and purposes, Kuroda and Jackson have faced hitters of equal quality this season.
Given his age and the fact that he seemed disinclined to pitch anywhere other than New York, Los Angeles, or back home in Japan, it’s obvious why Kuroda had to settle for a one-year pact this winter. Jackson, on the other hand, is right smack in the prime of his career and did in fact receive a multi-year offer, a three-year contract worth more than $30 million from the Pirates according to Ken Rosenthal. He instead opted for the one-year pillow contract, a Scott Boras specialty. Whether he increased his stock is up for debate.
Despite his relatively down year, Jackson should have no trouble landing a multi-year guarantee after the season, perhaps to remain with the Nationals. Kuroda might be able to get multiple years as well, surprisingly enough. Pitchers that age usually have to live the year-to-year life, but he’s fit in so well with the Yankees that they could look to bring him back for two more years instead of one. That’s a bit of a stretch, but it’s not completely insane. Either way, these two represent two of the very best value signings of the offseason, providing impact without busting the budget for baseball’s two best teams.
Holy Cow, an NL pitcher goes to the AL and pitches better than he ever has. How is that even possible with the AL being soooo superior???
Holy Cow, Yao Ming was the tallest player in the NBA. How is that even possible when Chinese people are shorter than Northern Europeans and African American.
….oh, right, overlapping distributions.
Hell yeah Justin! You tell ‘em! I’ll go grab my shotgun!
Aliens: media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m89h0oVqdg1qajiqn.jpg
Maybe the more interesting question for both of these pitchers is whether their respective teams offer arbitration this offseason. Would the Yankees want Kuroda for $13 million next year? Would the Nationals want Jackson for $13 million next year? Would either of these pitchers accept such an offer, or would the respective teams receive compensation picks instead?
The changes in arbitration/compensation pick rules really added to the value of these contracts.
the Nats would love Jackson at $13 for a year, most any team would. but he might be able to get more than that in Arb.
“He’s at 1.6 WAR and seems likely to a) fall short of the 3.6-3.8 WAR level he’s established these last three years, and b) still provide the Nationals plenty of surplus value.”
What are you valuing a win that gives Jackson plenty of surplus value? At 11million it seems like he’s right on pace to provide market value.
Believe he means that at 4-5M$ per WAR (what most seem to project)that he won’t supply the Nats any surplus value that they projected when they signed him just under 3M$/WAR.
If replacement value were defined as “John Lannan,” Edwin Jackson’s spot on a potential playoff staff is worth more than $11M.
HR/con for the leaderboards soon?
I’ve felt that Kuroda was a steal by the Yankees this offseason and the results have only confirmed that. Unfortunately, as a Red Sox fan, being right in this case gives me zero pleasure.
No idea how Kuroda only got one year. He had a legit track record.
I’d be thrilled to see Kuroda back for another year, but 2 years stretches my comfort zone a little.
How so? He has lowered his ERA each of the last 3 years and his FIP and xFIP have stayed very consistent.
Show the man the money!
4yr/55M
He’ll be 38 next year, so one year contracts are probably his lot at this point.