Kyle Farnsworth, Starting Pitcher?
The Royals haven’t gotten much of a return on their 2 year, $9 million investment in Kyle Farnsworth so far. Rather than proving to be a relief ace to stabilize the bullpen, he’s continued to be his enigmatic self, with the results never living up to the raw stuff behind them.
Now, the Royals are going to try something a bit different – give him a shot at starting. He’ll come to camp in the mix for the 5th starter’s job, as pitching coach Bob McClure wants to see how he’ll adjust to using his arsenal in longer outings. Reliever to starter conversions generally don’t go very well, as most bullpen guys are there for a reason, but I like this idea, and I think there’s a decent chance it may work.
The main difference in ability between a starter and most middle relievers is the ability to get opposite handed hitters out. A huge majority of relief guys are some sort of specialist, often throwing a fastball/slider mix that is dominant against their same handed hitters but with nothing to offer batters from the other side. They get selectively used by their managers to enhance their strengths and limit their weaknesses, and can be effective in that role, but they would simply be exposed if they were not able to face a majority of hitters from the same side that they throw.
Farnsworth is not that type of reliever. Here are his career L/R splits:
vs RHB: 3.43 BB/9, 9.45 K/9, 41% GB%, 3.68 xFIP
vs LHB: 4.63 BB/9, 10.41 K/9, 36% GB%, 3.89 xFIP
His strikeout rate is actually higher against left-handed hitters, which is unusual for a power righty. He’s still better against RHBs, as the strikeouts don’t offset the higher walk and lower groundball rates, but the difference isn’t huge. He’s not the type of pitcher who is going to fall apart when the opposing manager stacks the line-up with left-handed bats.
There’s also reasons to be encouraged that he may have learned something last year. As McClure notes in the linked article, they got him to start throwing both a two-seam and a four-seam fastball last year, and it significantly changed his pitch mix.
BIS classified the new pitch as a cutter, but it doesn’t really matter too much whether it’s a two-seam or cut fastball – it’s certainly a departure from what he’d been doing previously. For most of his career, he threw ~70% four seam fastballs and 30% sliders. Last year, he threw 50% four seam fastballs, 20% sliders, and 30% cutter/two-seamer.
This new wrinkle paid dividends. He’d been an extreme flyball guy most of his career, which was one of the driving causes behind his home run problems. With his new lower velocity fastball, he posted a 46% GB% in 2009, drastically reducing his long ball issues. Thanks to the limiting of his biggest problem, he posted a 3.10 xFIP, his lowest since 2005.
In a lot of ways, Farnsworth is reminiscent of Ryan Dempster, another power reliever with command problems who flourished with a move to the rotation. It’s not wise to expect that kind of outcome, but there are reasons to believe that Farnsworth could find success in the conversion. The stuff is good enough, especially with his new pitch mix, and it’s certainly worth the experiment.
The Royals take a lot of crap from us, but I’ll applaud them for recognizing an opportunity here. Farnsworth could justify his contract, and then some, if this works.
Over/under on returning to the pen: June 1st, 2010.
?
Under, way under. Like not making it through March under.
Farnsworth hasn’t started a game since 2000. There is no way he has the endurance to be a starter. He’s washed up anyway.
On the other hand, this is the Royals we’re talking about.
If he has had all offseason to prepare for a starting role, why would he not have the endurance to start?
For all of his troubles, Farnsworth is an exercise animal. I remember seeing a program on Yankees fitness training, and Farnsworth was cited as the best and hardest worker. The guy was able to reach endurance plateaus that no one else came close to.
I definitely agree on the endurance part. If there’s a player in MLB that can go from reliever to starter in a year it’s Farnsworth. Problem I see with him is his pitch selection. He’s a fastball, slider guy, who just learned a cutter last year and has yet to show he has anything good off speed.
Leave it to the Royals to apply a unique strategy to a pitcher with limited upside rather than a pitcher that might make a significant contribution in Soria. Ugh.
Desperate situations prompt desperate moves.
Is it likely to work? No.
Would you as a team in solid contention do this? No.
Would you as a team with an outside shot at the playoffs do this? No
Would you as a team which has Kyle Davies as a #5 and whom PECOTA projects as having 87 Losses next year do this? Well, maybe
So yes, they could get an amazing return from this. If Farnsworth does manage to harness his speed, he could make a good starter. But the odds are laughably poor, to the point where only a team in the most desperate of straits could (or should) take on the risk of this working out.
This isa good idea because they’re the royals, not because it’s a good idea
@ Alon – Not suggesting they will get the same millage, but contending teams have done this and done this with success. The Cardinals and Braden Looper comes to mind.
As for the Royals if you are a bad team why not try and do things differently? How much worse it could work out for them. I think to many bad teams are afraid to go against baseball convention even when baseball convention is not working for them
Prove that the odds are laughably poor. Give an explanation for why you believe any of what you just wrote.
Prove that the thing that separates relievers from starters is the ability to get opposite-handed batters out, because there are plenty of other plausible explanations for the traditional one-way transitioning from starter to reliever, and the explanation you’re taking for granted is not the most popular one.
You’re the one arguing that Farnsworth is the exception to the rule. The burden of proof really isn’t with the guy assuming that the Farnsworth experiment will turn out the way a century of baseball tells us it probably will.
Just to play devil’s advocate, I would have to say the odds are poor because the majority of relief pitchers that have tried to transition to being starters have not succeeded. I don’t happen to have the exact numbers around, but I have a feeling you might ;).
With that said, I don’t know if I’d say the odds are “laughable.” And even if they were, why not? The Royals’ season is almost certainly lost. They might as well get some return out of these games by learning more about the capabilities of their players. If I were them, I might give some extra guys from the minors some playing time too. Not that they’ll do that, because that’s what a team like (gasp) the Marlins might try, but still.
All told, this is the only move the Royals have made this winter that might actually be worth anything.
“Would you as a team in solid contention do this? No.”
Do you mean because it has been so long since he last started?? Cuz there’s this obscure team in New York with a couple unknowns named Phil and Joba…
Only in KC could moving a RP to SP be accompanied by dashing the hopes of converting Joakim Soria.
The key is the BB rate. Anyone who has been unfortunate enough to be a fan of a team that employed Farnsworth knows that his main problems are the walks (and obviously the HR, but let’s assume that he has fixed this problem with his new repertoire). His stuff has always been there, but with just another pitch to complement his fastball and slider, I am not convinced that he will be able to go through an order multiple times.
It’s true. Farnsworth might want to try this new, mysterious pitch called the “change-up.” I’m told a lot of good pitchers are using it nowadays. Here’s a link I enjoyed that explained it’s great effectiveness against his very own squad: http://www.thebrushback.com/changeup_full.htm (Royals Dazzled By Dice-K’s Mysterious ‘Change Up’)
I like this move, too. It’s really a no-lose, except for – as has been noted – keeping Soria out of the rotation. Since the Royals seem set on Soria-as-closer ad infinitum, there’s no reason not to play around with Farnsworth, considering the horrors of his relief work. If he has an even half-decent season in the rotation, the Royals could trade him to a contender and pick up some long-term help.
Of course, that’s assuming a modicum of intelligence that the doesn’t always seem apparent in KC.
Good move. There’s really no downside at all.
I think this makes a lot of sense. The one thing I disagree with, though, is the use of Dempster as a model/precedent.
In fact, I fundamentally disagree with labeling Dempster as a “power reliever”, considering that he spent the equivalent of nearly five full seasons as a starting pitcher before he ever moved to the bullpen. That’s where I think the comparison breaks down…Dempster had a lot of experience as a major league starter when he was moved back into the rotation, and he had shown the capacity to succeed there (specifically, in 2000).
I don’t think this impacts your point about Farnsworth, but keep in mind that the success of Dempster doesn’t make it any more likely that Farnsworth could pull this off.
I’m intrigued by this move and, honestly, hope it works out for ol’ KC.
Thanks Dave. Good analysis.
Farnsworth started his career as a starter with the Cubs. He failed at that because he did not have much of reportroie after his fastball/off-speed. I recall that he really struggled getting through the line-up the 2nd time. Hence the reason he moved to the bullpen. As much as he may be a work-out fiend, the rumor going around was that he enjoyed the Chicago nightlife too much to the point that he fell asleep in the clubhouse during a game prompting the Cubs to trade him soon after. He is tough as nails if you ask Jeremy Affeldt and a Reds pitcher (can’t recall) both of whom he body-slammed.
I’m skeptical that this will work out any better than when he first was a starter. As bad as his numbers were last year, he still put together a 17-inning scoreless streak so maybe he’s starting to become more of a pitcher instead of a thrower. Time will tell.
He got traded for falling asleep during a game?? It took Torre years of napping to get booted.
Honestly I feel sad for the people who just enjoy bashing the Royals. The majority of people don’t even realize how empty their farm systems were before Dayton arrived. You can’t expect them to be good over a 3 year perio since DM arrival. Things take time deuchbags :)
A truly sophisticated argument right here.
Gotta love the smiley right after “dooshbags.”
3 years later they are signing Ankiel, Kendall, and Podsednik because they still dont have any high level minor leaguers(or understand replacement level). Taking Moustakas over Wieters certainly didn’t help. But Dayton Moore did draft Greinke and Butler… Oh wait!
You know, other teams manage to rebuild their farm systems without making a boatload of stupid moves along the way.
“The majority of people don’t even realize how empty their farm systems were before Dayton arrived.”
Totally. Many other MLB clubs were really hurting for major league ready talent until Dayton took the helm. J.P Howell to the Rays, Jorge de la Rosa to the Rockies, Leo Nunez to the Marlins, Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox, Derrick Saito and Dan Cortes to the Mariners … I don’t know if I’d call these other teams’ systems “empty” but certainly these trades were pretty helpful to them. All of us who are fans of these clubs should indeed be happy for the consideration Dayton has made, especially since I don’t think most of the return on these trades is still on the club (Crisp? Jacobs? Anybody?!) and those who are happen to be painful to watch (Yunel? Yu’ll-never-take-a-walk is more like it).
So yes, thank you for reminding us how much other teams’ farm systems have benefited from Dayton’s moves over that few years. We shadn’t forget him as we buy our division championship jerseys.
Farnsworth, in my opinion, is unnecessarily despised. He had a below average 4.58 era last year but that was only in 37 innings, and with a .387 average on balls in play. This all but guarentees a rebound next year. Farnsworth has above average skills, especially for a reliever. He has a k/9 rate over 10 and less than a hr/9. Also, hes been quietly improving his skills from 2007 until now. He has a 3 k/bb- up from his 2.77 in 2008 and his 1.78 the year before. His walk rate is also not completely terrible either. They are only about .7 walks more than cc sabathia per 9 innings. Kyle Farnsworth has the skills to be a succesfull starter, just unbelievably bad luck. If he can put his solid skill set together, he could very well become the Ryan Demster-like suprise of 2010.
Yeah… I can see some kudos going the Royals way. Instead of wasting a couple million on a mediocre at best starting pitcher, why not try to turn a non-asset such as Farnsworth into a more valuable piece to trade later in the season. I hope it works for them. I don’t have any faith that it will having watched Farnsworth his entire career. I’m not going to spend much time on fleshing this out myself, because we’re just talking about the fifth starter on one of the worst organizations in sports. However, I always worry about evaluating relievers based on any kind of splits. I’m not saying you shouldn’t do it. You absolutely should. But they have to be taken into context. Maybe they already do this, but seems like the quality of the hitter they face is much more important than the result. Just because the Farns has decent numbers against lefties, it’s more likely he’s not facing the tough lefties as a right-handed power reliever. If a tough LHB was at the plate, most sane managers (please don’t confuse sane with effective or intelligent) would bring in a LHP to get the LHB out. Maybe the statistics would show the lefties he’s faced had an above-average wOBA or something, but until I see that, I’m not going to anoint him as effective against them.
Also… Dempster had moderate success as a starter before the Cubs put him in the pen, rightfully, tried to move him back to being a starter… stupidly… and put him back in the pen before LaTroy Hawkins completely flushed their 2005 season, which ultimately ended up in disappointment anyway. I was as shocked as anybody when they moved him back to the rotation, and he’s succeeded to the level he has, but at least there was some basis for it. There’s no track record to say Kyle Farnsworth should be on a mound for 5+ innings at a time mentally or physically. Again, he won’t doom them, because they’re already doomed. There’s no downside to giving this a try, but I wouldn’t go nuts expecting it to succeed.
I think this move is because, as a reliever, Farnsworth is available almost every day, making him able to blow games say three out of five days. If Farnsworth were to become a starter, he would only be able to blow games every fifth day, automatically making the Royals better.
Hey Everyone! It’s all part of the process, we need to show more trust.
Read about Farnsworth in Joe Torres book when he was with the Yankess. Farnsworth is fine when he would come in without the stress of a close game on the line. He just never could handle the pressure when it was close. This was confirmed in his very first start in a Royals Uniform and followed him the rest of the season.
I see no problem in giving him this opportunity and seeing if he can control his emotions in his own starts.
If only there was a way to test this claim with actual evidence. Like, say, splits by leverage. Oh, wait, there is.
Farnsworth, career:
Low Leverage: 4.19 FIP, 3.90 xFIP
Med Leverage: 3.88 FIP, 3.35 xFIP
High Leverage: 3.80 FIP, 4.00 xFIP
So much for that theory.
In fairness to the poster, he was awful last year in high leverage situations. I haven’t read Torre’s book so I don’t know if Torre made that claim or not but if he did, the splits don’t back him up.
Journalism rule #36(aka The A-Rod Corollary)- Never let statistics get in the way of a good narrative.
If only there was a way to test the claim for the period Randy referred to with the Yankees and Royals from 2006 to 2009 rather than for his entire career. Oh, wait, there is.
Farnsworth, 2006 to 2009:
Low Leverage: 110 IP 38 earned runs
Med Leverage: 64 IP 37 earned runs
High Leverage: 49.1 IP 39 earned runs
My apologies for the lack of FIP and xFIP — I did this quickly and didn’t find a source for those admittedly better stats and perhaps they would tell a different story. But on the surface, Torre’s claim and that of the poster seem quite possible.
The reason Farnsworth, for his career, shows little difference between Low and high leverage, is that his first three years, he was absolutely lit up in low leverage.
One could argue whether the change over time was meaningful or not, whether it represented a change in performance or just factors outside his control. But to do that would require more than posting career numbers.
It isn’t easy being a Royals fan and even after so long it still stings when someone says: ‘…one of the worst organizations in sports.’ It wasn’t always that way, and really…it isn’t any more. It has improved dramatically under Dayton Moore, it’s just that it’s not showing on the scoreboard yet. The minor league system is filling up and we will compete again. Bringing this franchise from the seventh level of hell takes time. DM has made FA mistakes, no doubt…but starting in about 2012 we’ll have our own system providing players the way we did back in the old days. It’s coming.
you mean like when the system produced Johnny Damon or Carlos Beltran or Zack Greinke or Billy Butler?
horrible execution at the major league level drags down no matter what
The Royals became one of the worst organizations because they made awful moves at the major league level. The minor leagues, while not always great, were only bad for a couple of years.
The awful major league moves are still there. The best farm system ever can’t save a team if the GM can’t figure out how to put the roster together.
The Process is trusted.
Totally. Don’t they have a 5 year plan or something? I hear first they’re going to industrialize, then they’re going to chase around all the birds wipe them out, and if that doesn’t work they’re going to fire everyone who wears glasses. That’ll show those stat-heads.
Dempster also changed his windup, adding that weird flipping his hand back and forth thing…
No Will, I meant the system that produced George Brett, Frank White, Dennis Leonard, Bret Saberhagen – you know – those losers. There was a time (probably before you were born) where the Royals had the best farm system in the Majors. That’s what I’m referring to.
“Probably before you were born.” That’s a clever rejoinder.
Will must know nothing about baseball because he’s under sixty. Or is it the other way around?
Also, Will’s right. The Royals have had tons of individual talents over the past decade. The franchise as a whole, however, has been a morass of mediocrity. Even the great George Brett couldn’t turn the ’09 Royals into winners.
When the Cubs made Farnsworth a reliever, they were desperate to find someone to close games. They even moved Zambrano to the bullpen in AAA at the same time. Farmsworth came up as a starter in his career and showed alot of promise, despite his stats. He was actually moved up faster than they wanted, mainly because they had multiple injuries that year with Wood, Jeremi Gonzalez, and a few other guys. They Royals may actually be on to something here. I have wondered for years what would have happened if the Cubs had left him as a starter. Good luck.
Great article. It seems like the KC’s best option for getting something out of him.
I applied Cameron’s template to another AL Central pitcher… Cleveland’s Rafael Perez: http://tipitalk.wordpress.com/2010/02/12/rafael-perez-starting-pitcher/