Leaderboards of Pleasure – 7/4/11


Business Graph with arrow showing profits and gains.

Last week in these electronic pages, we unveiled an exercise in absurdity known as Leaderboards of Pleasure. Simply put, the LOPs (as they will forever be called by our descendants and their descendants after them) are a complement to Paul Swydan’s excellent Power Rankings, which appear here each Monday. Except instead of trying to say anything substantive about any player or team’s absolute ability, the LOPs consolidate a number of the site’s “watchability”-type stats (including all versions of NERD).

The present document, then, is the most recent installment of these Leaderboards. For those who read last week’s edition, the format of this one should be familiar, except for one edit — namely, the addition of a playoff-adjusted Team NERD. You can read more about it below, but, essentially, this metric is the same as Team NERD but includes an adjustment for the degree to which a team is in the playoff hunt or not.

Also, there’s this change: bolded headings on which you can click to bring yourself right to a specific leaderboard.

Behold:

1. Team NERD Leaderboard
2. Team NERD Leaderboard (Playoff Adjusted)
3. Underrated Player Leaderboard
4. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
5. Player NERD Leaderboard

Team NERD Leaderboard
Again, like the other NERD scores, this one represents an attempt to anticipate the “watchability” of each team. (Read more here. Also: note that the three baserunning stats have been consolidated in Speed Score.)


Teams NERD Age BAT HR/FB Spd BULL UZR Pay Luck
Royals 10 2.09 0.33 -0.24 1.05 -0.16 1.03 1.40 0.87
Rangers 10 0.00 1.22 1.67 1.50 -0.74 2.50 0.02 0.18
Diamondbacks 9 0.85 -0.05 0.63 0.75 0.46 1.40 0.97 0.00
Indians 9 1.74 0.20 0.64 0.15 -0.35 0.63 1.08 0.00
Blue Jays 9 0.50 0.70 0.58 0.90 0.30 1.33 0.75 0.25
Brewers 8 0.00 0.75 1.14 0.75 1.02 0.07 0.18 0.65
Yankees 8 0.00 2.06 1.81 1.20 0.07 -0.72 0.00 0.00
Reds 7 0.76 0.38 0.53 -0.44 -0.32 1.33 0.41 0.00
Rockies 7 0.76 -0.20 0.93 0.30 1.15 -0.51 0.12 0.00
Red Sox 7 0.00 2.03 1.08 0.30 0.56 -0.91 0.00 0.00
Astros 6 0.76 -0.08 -1.53 1.05 0.43 -0.33 0.55 1.16
Rays 5 0.41 0.19 -0.04 0.45 -1.43 0.44 1.25 0.00
Mets 5 0.00 0.69 -1.53 1.65 -0.12 0.70 0.00 0.20
Padres 5 0.00 -1.07 -1.12 0.75 0.98 -0.14 1.16 0.74
Nationals 5 0.32 -1.02 0.75 0.15 -0.65 0.68 0.72 0.00
Braves 5 0.00 -0.80 1.09 -2.24 2.68 0.40 0.15 0.00
Angels 5 0.14 -0.14 -0.48 0.15 -0.45 -0.30 0.00 2.00
Orioles 4 0.23 0.18 0.41 -1.79 0.07 -0.65 0.19 1.92
Cardinals 4 0.00 1.38 0.98 -1.04 -0.71 -0.16 0.00 0.00
Dodgers 3 0.00 -0.22 -0.52 -0.29 -0.26 -1.15 0.00 1.96
Marlins 3 0.23 -0.91 -0.13 -1.04 0.20 -0.65 0.89 0.61
Tigers 3 0.50 1.13 0.19 -0.59 -1.40 -1.75 0.00 0.80
Giants 3 0.00 -1.32 -1.26 -0.89 1.47 0.79 0.00 0.46
Pirates 3 0.23 -1.08 -0.71 -0.29 0.01 -0.35 1.15 0.00
Mariners 3 0.85 -1.80 -1.07 -0.29 0.33 0.12 0.16 0.00
Phillies 2 0.00 -0.51 -0.39 0.75 -1.10 -0.05 0.00 0.10
Athletics 2 0.94 -1.31 -1.86 0.00 0.30 -1.47 0.65 0.00
White Sox 1 0.00 -0.64 -0.38 -2.09 1.02 -0.26 0.00 0.00
Cubs 1 0.00 -0.45 0.15 -0.44 -0.81 -2.08 0.00 0.88
Twins 0 0.00 -1.29 -1.33 -0.44 -2.53 0.02 0.00 0.00

Team NERD Leaderboard (Playoff Adjusted)
This is just like Team NERD, except with an adjustment (POFF) that assigns a penalty or bonus depending on the degree to which a team is involved in playoff race. The closer a team’s playoff chances (per Cool Standings) are to 25%, the closer said team’s bonus is to 2.00; the closer to 0% or 100%, the close the penalty is to -2.00.

The attentive reader will note that the Royals, despite owning just a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs, still place among the league-leading teams given their mix of youth, payroll, speed, and fielding skill. Meanwhile, the Twins threaten to break the entire system by posting an un-rounded NERD of -3.79 — and thus seriously skewing the concept of average for the 29 other teams.


Teams NERD Age BAT HR/FB Spd BULL UZR Pay Luck POFF
Diamondbacks 10 0.85 -0.05 0.63 0.75 0.46 1.40 0.97 0.00 1.62
Rangers 10 0.00 1.22 1.67 1.50 -0.74 2.50 0.02 0.18 1.13
Indians 10 1.74 0.20 0.64 0.15 -0.35 0.63 1.08 0.00 0.97
Royals 10 2.09 0.33 -0.24 1.05 -0.16 1.03 1.40 0.87 -1.92
Brewers 10 0.00 0.75 1.14 0.75 1.02 0.07 0.18 0.65 1.54
Reds 9 0.76 0.38 0.53 -0.44 -0.32 1.33 0.41 0.00 1.67
Blue Jays 8 0.50 0.70 0.58 0.90 0.30 1.33 0.75 0.25 -1.50
Rockies 8 0.76 -0.20 0.93 0.30 1.15 -0.51 0.12 0.00 0.96
Astros 6 0.76 -0.08 -1.53 1.05 0.43 -0.33 0.55 1.16 0.00
Yankees 6 0.00 2.06 1.81 1.20 0.07 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -1.63
Rays 6 0.41 0.19 -0.04 0.45 -1.43 0.44 1.25 0.00 0.74
Angels 6 0.14 -0.14 -0.48 0.15 -0.45 -0.30 0.00 2.00 1.34
Cardinals 6 0.00 1.38 0.98 -1.04 -0.71 -0.16 0.00 0.00 1.85
Red Sox 6 0.00 2.03 1.08 0.30 0.56 -0.91 0.00 0.00 -0.88
Mets 5 0.00 0.69 -1.53 1.65 -0.12 0.70 0.00 0.20 0.18
Braves 5 0.00 -0.80 1.09 -2.24 2.68 0.40 0.15 0.00 0.00
Pirates 5 0.23 -1.08 -0.71 -0.29 0.01 -0.35 1.15 0.00 1.99
Nationals 4 0.32 -1.02 0.75 0.15 -0.65 0.68 0.72 0.00 -0.38
Tigers 4 0.50 1.13 0.19 -0.59 -1.40 -1.75 0.00 0.80 1.36
Padres 4 0.00 -1.07 -1.12 0.75 0.98 -0.14 1.16 0.74 -1.26
Mariners 3 0.85 -1.80 -1.07 -0.29 0.33 0.12 0.16 0.00 0.78
Giants 3 0.00 -1.32 -1.26 -0.89 1.47 0.79 0.00 0.46 0.54
White Sox 3 0.00 -0.64 -0.38 -2.09 1.02 -0.26 0.00 0.00 1.46
Orioles 2 0.23 0.18 0.41 -1.79 0.07 -0.65 0.19 1.92 -1.97
Dodgers 1 0.00 -0.22 -0.52 -0.29 -0.26 -1.15 0.00 1.96 -1.68
Phillies 1 0.00 -0.51 -0.39 0.75 -1.10 -0.05 0.00 0.10 -1.25
Marlins 1 0.23 -0.91 -0.13 -1.04 0.20 -0.65 0.89 0.61 -1.94
Athletics 1 0.94 -1.31 -1.86 0.00 0.30 -1.47 0.65 0.00 -0.98
Cubs 0 0.00 -0.45 0.15 -0.44 -0.81 -2.08 0.00 0.88 -1.97
Twins 0 0.00 -1.29 -1.33 -0.44 -2.53 0.02 0.00 0.00 -1.73

Underrated Player Leaderboard
To determine the most underrated player, we look at each player’s WAR relative to a very fake version of WAR (called FANT, in this case) constructed only by the five most common fantasy categories. (Read more here.)


Name Diff WAR FANT Avg HR R RBI SB
Denard Span 2.1 2.6 0.5 0.77 -1.18 -0.65 -1.65 -0.39
Howie Kendrick 1.8 3.7 1.9 1.19 -0.13 0.20 -0.82 0.20
Ben Zobrist 1.8 3.9 2.1 -0.37 0.05 1.34 0.25 0.05
Shane Victorino 1.6 4.4 2.8 1.04 0.05 1.34 -0.21 0.93
Brendan Ryan 1.5 1.5 0.0 -0.46 -1.53 -1.22 -0.97 -0.24
Andrew McCutchen 1.4 4.7 3.3 0.77 0.58 1.15 0.63 1.23
Cameron Maybin 1.4 2.3 0.9 -0.22 -0.65 -0.37 -1.42 0.64
Matt Wieters 1.4 2.0 0.6 -0.19 -0.30 -1.03 -0.28 -0.97
Dustin Pedroia 1.4 3.9 2.5 0.29 -0.30 0.86 0.10 1.37
Brett Gardner 1.3 3.0 1.7 0.05 -0.83 0.39 -1.42 1.96
Kurt Suzuki 1.3 0.9 -0.4 -1.61 -0.48 -1.41 -1.27 -0.68
Peter Bourjos 1.3 1.8 0.5 -0.10 -1.01 -0.65 -1.58 0.35
Alberto Callaspo 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.29 -1.01 -1.13 -0.44 -0.53
Ronny Cedeno 1.1 1.1 0.0 -0.50 -1.18 -0.84 -1.04 -0.83
Jamey Carroll 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.80 -1.53 -0.37 -2.18 -0.24
Alexei Ramirez 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.20 -0.13 0.96 0.10 -0.53
John Buck 1.0 0.9 -0.1 -1.70 -0.13 -1.32 -0.59 -0.97
Jose Reyes 1.0 5.3 4.3 2.58 -1.01 2.48 -0.36 3.42
Brian McCann 1.0 3.2 2.2 1.37 0.93 -0.84 0.78 -0.68
Miguel Montero 0.9 2.3 1.4 -0.01 0.05 -0.18 0.25 -0.83

Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
The idea with Pitcher NERD — as with the other NERDs — is to express with one number the likelihood that the learned fan might have interest in a certain player. (To read more about Pitcher NERD, click here.)


Name NERD xFIP SwStrk Strk Velo Luck Age KN
Zack Greinke 10 2.73 1.79 0.95 0.72 2.00 0.22 0.00
Clayton Kershaw 10 1.98 1.85 0.58 1.01 0.59 1.22 0.00
Roy Halladay 10 2.33 1.46 2.31 0.57 0.03 0.00 0.00
David Price 10 1.58 0.59 0.86 1.61 0.53 0.72 0.00
Matt Garza 10 1.63 1.63 0.58 1.09 0.90 0.22 0.00
Michael Pineda 10 0.58 2.50 1.88 1.72 0.00 1.46 0.00
Cole Hamels 10 2.06 1.85 0.98 0.61 0.00 0.22 0.00
Brandon Morrow 10 1.10 2.01 0.22 1.13 1.35 0.47 0.00
Brandon Beachy 10 1.55 2.06 0.69 0.49 0.31 0.97 0.00
Madison Bumgarner 10 1.18 0.37 1.43 0.68 0.49 1.71 0.00
Justin Verlander 10 1.44 1.52 1.13 1.72 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cliff Lee 9 1.78 0.81 2.28 0.38 0.15 0.00 0.00
James Shields 9 1.72 2.23 1.17 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00
Felipe Paulino 9 0.87 1.30 -0.07 1.72 0.93 0.22 0.00
Jaime Garcia 9 1.36 1.63 0.62 0.00 0.29 0.97 0.00
Tim Lincecum 9 1.67 1.46 -0.60 0.83 0.20 0.22 0.00
Anibal Sanchez 9 1.33 1.90 0.82 0.49 0.24 0.22 0.00
Edwin Jackson 9 0.99 0.81 -0.17 1.42 0.96 0.22 0.00
Felix Hernandez 9 1.24 0.48 0.16 1.13 0.23 0.72 0.00
R.A. Dickey 8 0.07 -0.01 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.88

Player NERD Leaderboard
Very similar to Pitcher NERD, except for position players. (Read more here.)


Name NERD Age WAR xBABIP HR/FB Spd K%
Jose Bautista 10 0.00 3.08 -0.22 3.19 -0.10 0.23
Jose Reyes 10 0.31 2.40 0.00 -1.07 2.32 1.82
Matt Kemp 10 0.80 2.03 -0.22 2.52 1.11 -0.67
Ryan Braun 10 0.55 1.80 -0.05 1.45 1.31 0.48
Shane Victorino 10 0.00 2.54 -0.53 0.07 2.17 1.21
Troy Tulowitzki 10 0.80 1.42 0.27 1.04 0.20 1.46
Andrew McCutchen 10 1.28 2.16 -0.05 0.60 1.01 0.13
Robinson Cano 10 0.31 0.90 0.10 1.42 1.42 0.92
Curtis Granderson 10 0.00 2.02 -0.01 1.95 2.07 -1.09
Elvis Andrus 9 1.76 0.80 0.42 -0.50 1.52 0.90
Ian Kinsler 9 0.07 1.36 0.48 0.15 1.62 1.20
Asdrubal Cabrera 9 1.04 1.11 0.01 1.04 1.42 0.19
Albert Pujols 9 0.00 0.90 0.48 1.56 0.26 1.60
Chase Utley 9 0.00 2.02 -0.38 -0.27 1.77 1.33
Howie Kendrick 9 0.55 2.00 0.05 1.03 0.86 -0.10
Lance Berkman 9 0.00 1.30 0.45 3.43 -1.06 0.22
Danny Espinosa 9 1.28 1.22 -0.18 1.29 1.31 -0.75
Starlin Castro 9 2.01 0.20 0.00 -1.12 1.67 1.30
Evan Longoria 9 1.04 1.62 0.53 0.99 -0.60 0.39
Melky Cabrera 9 0.80 0.62 0.25 0.44 0.96 0.88




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Carson Cistulli has recently started a new project called Paris Matches.

11 Responses to “Leaderboards of Pleasure – 7/4/11”

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  1. sean says:

    But what am I supposed to watch tonight, Carson?

    I can’t think for myself!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. atoms says:

    when melky registers a 9 on your rating scale, it’s time to reconsider your methodology. he’s an 11 as i have ears to hear, or my name isn’t ted zickleman.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Well-Beered Englishman says:

    Jose Reyes has a 10 player NERD and is on the most underrated list. This is because Jose Reyes’ pitching-independent expected NERD (PIENERD) is 14.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. herve houchoua says:

    Pitcher NERD ( les plus mauvais par equipes)
    ………………………………………………………..

    ARIZONA / GALARRAGA 1 ( je trouve “Collmenter”(5) sur estimé par le pNERD )
    ATLANTA / MINOR et JURRJENS 5 ( un peu sévére pour “Jurrjens” (5) peut etre ? )
    BOSTON / MATSUZAKA 0 ( “lackey” ( 2) n est pas beaucoup mieux)
    BALTIMORE / MATUSZ et TILLMANN 2 ( “matusz” a t il recupéré de sa blessure ? )
    CLEVELAND / TALBOT 1 ( vraiment le + mauvais de la team )
    COLORADO / HAMMEL et MORTENSEN 2
    CUBS / COLEMAN 0 ( je l ai vu sur “mlb tv ” le 7/4 , il est effectivement mauvais ) ( d davis ( 1) a souvent des problemes )
    CIN REDS / ARROYO et WOOD 4
    C W SOX / BUEHRLE 2 ( “humber “( 4) est sous estimé selon moi )
    DETROIT / COKE 1 ( “penny” (2) n est pas beaucoup mieux )
    FLORIDA / VAZQUEZ 3
    HOUSTON / A RODRIGUEZ 2 ( happ (3) est en difficulté aussi)
    KANSAS / O SULLIVAN 1 ( chen (2) et k . davies (2) n effraient pas plus les batteurs)
    LA ANGELS / CHATWOOD 2
    LA DODGERS / GARLAND 1 ( lilly (6) est sur estimé selon moi )
    …………………………………………………………………………………………….

    la suite ce soir si cela vous intéresse ?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Yirmiyahu says:

    Carson,

    You’ve used xBABIP to try to tease lucky BABIPers out of the NERD equation. Yet you keep WAR in the equation, without any adjustment for lucky UZRers.

    I would say a half-season sample of BABIP is more of an indication of true talent than a half-season sample of UZR.

    Thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • juan pierre's mustache says:

      as long as the twins are in last place with 0 the man must be doing something right

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Terence says:

        You can only believe the Astros are a 6 if you are like 99% of all Americans who never try and watch them. I thought the Playoff Expectancy component would fix this, somehow it did not.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. ???????? says:

    ????????? ???? ??????? ? ???? ?????…????? ???????…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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