Let’s Think About a Troy Tulowitzki Trade

Things are not going particular well in Colorado, and I’m not just talking about the fact that it snowed in May. The state’s baseball team has lost nine straight games, and new GM Jeff Bridich isn’t particularly pleased with the results he’s seen as of late.

“We have a good collection of players,” said Bridich, the first-year GM whose team is 11-17 and last in the National League West. “And at this point, meaning the last two weeks of the season, they’ve added up to a bad team. I don’t think there’s any other way you can look at it. That’s not saying anything shocking. The players know that.

“There are bad stretches that befall every team in a season, or most every team in a season. This is where we see what type of resolve our players have — if they take a look around that clubhouse and deal with reality as adults and say, ‘We’re going to make some changes and do things necessary to start winning games.

“I continue to believe in our guys, but when you have to make changes like we did with Tyler Matzek [who was sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque over the weekend], when it’s in the best interest of the team and the player, you go ahead and give somebody else an opportunity,” Bridich said.

Unfortunately for Bridich and the Rockies, swapping out every underperforming player is logistically impossible. They’re not going to bench Carlos Gonzalez, but he’s been their worst player this season, putting up -0.6 WAR in his first 101 plate appearances. They could start taking some playing time from Justin Morneau and give it to Wilin Rosario, but that doesn’t seem like an obvious upgrade, and Morneau was pretty good for the Rockies last year, so that would seem like an overreaction to a slow start. And if the team had better pitchers than Jorge de la Rosa or Kyle Kendrick hanging around, they wouldn’t have spent some of their free agent money to sign those guys in the first place; this is not an organization overflowing with quality arms.

So yes, the Rockies can do things like demote Tyler Matzek or swap out Daniel Descalso for a different utility infielder, but moving the deck chairs around isn’t going to stop the ship from sinking. While Bridich is right that the team does have some good players, they just don’t have enough of them, and when the team’s two highest profile players aren’t performing like superstars, the rest of the roster gets exposed. And that’s what has happened early on; Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have been mediocre and terrible respectively, and there just isn’t enough around them to pick up the slack.

Of course, Bridich isn’t ready to blow things up quite yet.

Asked whether more dramatic moves are on the horizon, such as trading high-priced shortstop Troy Tulowitzki or outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, Bridich said, “No, it’s early in May. If and when those situations come up, we’ll deal with that then.”

Teams almost never make significant moves in May, preferring to wait until after the draft to start reevaluating their roster, so the Rockies are likely a month away from fielding offers for their veteran talents. But while Bridich might consider May 12th early, the reality is that Troy Tulowitzki has likely never been closer to the trade block than he is right now.

The Rockies are already 8.5 games out of first place in the National League West, and our Playoff Odds give them just a 0.2% chance of winning the division and a 2.3% chance of capturing one of the two Wild Card berths. This puts them in the same tier as the Rangers, Reds, Braves, Brewers and Diamondbacks — all teams that will likely be July sellers. It’s not impossible that one of them turns things around and makes an unexpected playoff run — maybe the Rockies will even be that team — but while it’s too early for the season to officially be over for this group, it’s far later in the year for these teams than it is for the other two dozen clubs in baseball.

So let’s assume the Rockies aren’t going to turn things around overnight, and in a month’s time, they’ll still be roughly 10 games behind the Dodgers, with slim Wild Card hopes fading as the calendar pages turn. At that point, contenders looking for an upgrade will begin seriously evaluating who is available, and they’ll almost certainly begin calling the Rockies about their star shortstop. And this time, the Rockies should actively be looking to move him.

While Tulo hasn’t been great thus far, his track record ensures there would be plenty of bidders for his services as long as he’s healthy. Right now, there’s no reason to think he’s not healthy. Given his history, though, future health is not guaranteed, and the longer the Rockies hold him, the more likely it is Tulo once again will make himself unavailable due to injury. There’s significant risk involved with holding Tulo too long, and the Rockies should be aggressively trying to divest themselves of that risk while the market for him remains strong.

So let’s evaluate the suitors and see what kind of market we might expect for Tulowitzki. If you’re trading for Tulo in-season, you’re almost certainly a 2015 contender, so let’s scratch off the five teams I mentioned, along with the Phillies, as those guys aren’t going to be in a position where swinging a deal for Tulowitzki makes sense. We can probably cross off the Twins and White Sox, as well, as they might have hopes of contending, but neither one is likely to be in a position where selling the farm to land Tulo is reasonable this year. The A’s and Indians can’t afford him — and might be playing their ways into seller status — so that’s 10 teams we can cross off pretty easily.

From the potential contenders, we can assume teams that already have shortstops they like won’t be too involved, so let’s eliminate the Marlins, Orioles, Giants, Cubs, Royals, Cardinals, Tigers and Nationals. The Rockies probably won’t trade him within their own division, so the Dodgers and Padres are out too, even if maybe they would like to be in. It’s just too difficult to see Colorado letting Tulo play against them 19 times per year for the next six years. So that’s 10 more clubs off the list.

That leaves us with nine potential landing spots that make some degree of sense. We’ll break those into three categories.

The Longshots

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates weren’t willing to extend enough money to retain Russell Martin, so it’s unlikely that they’d be looking to take on the $20 million per year salary Tulo is due for the five years beyond this one. But they’re also smart enough to realize that $20 million a year for an elite player is actually a pretty good deal in this day and age. Jordy Mercer isn’t exactly a barrier to acquiring Tulo, and while Jung-Ho Kang has proved interesting, he could easily slide to second base, with Neil Walker unlikely to stick around long-term. The Pirates have a strong farm system with the kind of arms the Rockies would likely be looking for, and they’re at the spot on the win-curve where a big upgrade would mean the most to their chances of making the postseason. If they want to capitalize on Andrew McCutchen‘s prime years, putting a superstar next to him for the rest of his contract is a good way to do it. Still, the Pirates aren’t known for taking big risks, and this would probably be a bridge too far for their tastes.

Tampa Bay Rays

This has maybe moved from longshot to no-shot since Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly went down for the year, hindering the Rays chances of making a strong second-half run. It’s still not entirely impossible, though. The Rays are a bubble team getting nothing from Asdrubal Cabrera, and while they’re also a low-payroll team that generally focuses on cheap young talent, they paid Evan Longoria to stick around and would likely recognize that Tulo’s salary isn’t out of line with what he’d provide in return. It probably won’t happen, but I could see them making a cursory phone call just to see what the price is, especially if they get hot in the next few weeks.

Anaheim Angels

They have Erick Aybar, so you wouldn’t generally identify them as a team who needs a shortstop, but then again, Aybar could easily move over to second base. That means Tulo would actually be replacing Johnny Giavotella in the starting lineup. The Angels haven’t been shy about paying big money to aging players, so Tulo’s contract is probably less of an issue for them that it would be for some others, but it’s also not clear what the Rockies would want from the Angels in exchange. Maybe they could get in with a lower-talent offer if they also took Carlos Gonzalez’s entire contract, but that’s probably rich for even Arte Moreno. I’d never count them out entirely when a big fish is out there, but despite their deep pockets and need for another good player to stick next to Mike Trout, this probably isn’t a good fit for Colorado.

Maybe In The Mix

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners thought they were poised to be really good this year, but they’ve struggled out of the gate, and will likely be looking to make a significant splash this summer before Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz get too old to hit in the middle of their lineup any longer. The Mariners have young big leaguers — Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, James Paxton and Taijaun Walker are among the most prominent — who could be fits for the Rockies’ needs if Bridich wanted big-leaguers back instead of prospects who might be further away. But would Tulo really be interested in going from Coors Field to Safeco Field? And if his primary goal is to get to a contender, would he be happy hoping he’s the piece that pushes the Mariners out of the disappointment column? The teams might be more interested in a deal between them than Tulo is, and if he’s not excited about going to Seattle, I’d expect the Mariners will look elsewhere for an upgrade.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays don’t really need another right-handed slugger, and with Jose Reyes on the books and Devon Travis playing well at second base, they probably don’t need another middle infielder either. But they do have the kind of young arms that Colorado would likely be interested in. Of the Rockies took Reyes back with some of those pitching prospects, maybe there’s a deal to be struck here, as the monetary differences wouldn’t be all that large anymore. In reality, the Blue Jays path of least resistance is to find another starting pitcher or two to upgrade their own rotation, rather than trading young arms for another big bat, but it’s not impossible to see Alex Anthopolous getting involved if he sees this as the best addition he can make to a team that needs a short-term boost to help an aging core make a push to the postseason.

Houston Astros

For years, the Houston area has tuned the Astros out, as the organization gave them no reason to even pay attention to baseball during the summer or fall. But now the Astros have made a surprising surge to the top of a weak division. If Jeff Luhnow wants to make a significant splash to get his city watching again, Tulowitzki would be that kind of shock-and-awe acquisition that could reinvigorate the team’s fan base. Of course, with top prospect Carlos Correa coming and Jose Altuve holding down second base, the Astros don’t exactly need a middle infielder, but Correa could slide over to third base and the team could make two big additions to its line-up in one fell swoop. They’ll probably just stay the course with their young kids and make minor moves around the periphery instead, but it would be pretty fun to see the Astros put themselves back on the map with a Tulo-led run at the AL West this summer.

The Favorites

Boston Red Sox

Another slow start is testing the patience of Boston fans everywhere, and with Xander Bogaerts still looking for his power stroke, Tulowitzki would represent an immediate upgrade at shortstop. If the Rockies preferred to get Tulo’s replacement back in the deal where they traded him away, they likely can’t do much better than coercing the Red Sox to swap Bogaerts for Tulo, as he retains the potential to turn into a high-level player down the road. It would be a risky play for the Red Sox, especially given Tulo’s health concerns and the fact that he wouldn’t fix their pitching problems, but he’s their kind of player and would dramatically improve a roster that continues to underperform expectations. Few teams in baseball could put together the kind of package for Tulo that the Red Sox could, and while they might prefer to stick with their kids, acquiring Tulowitzki would also serve to keep him off of the….

New York Yankees

The Tulo-Yankee rumors have been kicking around for years, and with Didi Gregorius doing a pretty good impersonation of a pitcher at the plate, the Yankees are still likely looking for their shortstop of the present and future. And given their strong start, the team has more incentive to play for 2015 than it might have appeared going into the season. Packaging up a group of prospects along with Gregorius is likely more appealing than it was when the Yankees looked like an old team who would struggle to a .500 record. The Yankees aren’t likely to shy away from an opportunity to get back to the postseason, and the money obviously won’t be an issue, so the only question remaining is whether they’d want to empty their farm system to land another aging player after working so hard to get away from older, expensive players on the downside of their careers. If Boston gets involved, though, I can’t imagine the Yankees stay out of the bidding, especially if they keep their hold at the top of the American League East for another month.

New York Mets

Even if he doesn’t go to the Yankees, he may still end up in New York, because no team could use a slugging shortstop more than the Mets. Wilmer Flores has been a reasonable enough short-term fill-in, but it’s widely accepted that he’s not the answer there for the future. Tulowitzki would clearly represent a significant 2015 upgrade. The Mets should have the financial capability to afford his salary, and they definitely have the young arms that the Rockies would be looking for in return; toss in that they’re probably a legitimate Wild Card contender after their strong start and Tulo to the Mets makes a remarkable amount of sense. The Red Sox and Yankees could certainly benefit from adding him to their line-up, but the Mets are the team that stands the most to gain from bringing Tulowitzki into the fold. This is the Astros rebooting their fan base writ large, with one grand gesture to show everyone in Queens that the team is serious about winning and that the Wilpons will spend money when it’s needed. If the Mets are still hanging around the top of the NL East in a month or so, no one should be more incentivized to get Tulowitzki out of Colorado than Sandy Alderson. The fit is just too obvious.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Ryan
Member
Ryan
1 year 11 days ago

What the heck has happened to Tulo’s plate discipline?

Dan Greer
Member
Dan Greer
1 year 11 days ago

That’s what I want to know as well. He swings at everything now.

noseeum
Guest
noseeum
1 year 11 days ago

Why not? May as well have some fun up there! Who else is driving him in?

Richard Bergstrom
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

He’s still at roughly the same pitches per plate appearance than he has been at throughout his career. It’s just harder to pitch around him these days.

mrwalterisgod
Guest
mrwalterisgod
1 year 11 days ago

A trade to the Mariners would be interesting, except for the fact that they’re going to be using Brad Miller in the outfield soon since Ackley/Ruggiano/Smith are pretty much terrible. I don’t think it’s likely. And if they did make that trade, was is the corresponding move? DFA Ackley or Bloomquist?

here goes nothing
Guest
here goes nothing
1 year 11 days ago

bloomquist, surely. or maybe not so surely.

Hutch
Member
Hutch
1 year 11 days ago

I like Brad Miller as much as anybody, but I don’t think Z would balk at losing Miller if it meant Tulo. You’re right though, their OF is an abomination – Braun or Carlos Gomez make a lot more sense if the team wants to make a splash.

JamesDaBear
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

…or Carlos Gonzalez.

If the Rockies went to trade both Tulo and CarGo, they could get Miller (or Taylor or Marte) from the Mariners and get best value possible regardless of position in a trade for Tulo.

Manson
Guest
Manson
1 year 11 days ago

It’d be foolish for anyone to trade for CarGo…especially Seattle.

joser
Guest
joser
1 year 10 days ago

That’s way too many dollars committed to declining assets (they’re already too far in that column with Cano and Cruz, it’s just further out in the future).

joser
Guest
joser
1 year 10 days ago

Sad thing is that the Mariners were poised to get Tulo for mere slot dollars in 2005, but they already had a rising minor league shortstop in Adam Jones (yes, that Adam Jones) and they thought they needed a catcher (never draft for need!) so they drafted Jeff Clement at #3, who played in 75 big league games.

The Mariners still haven’t completely exorcised the Ghost of Bavasi.

PWR
Guest
PWR
1 year 11 days ago

teams shouldn’t make trade to “make a splash” but man would this legitimize the Mets

The Ghost of Dayn Perry
Guest
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
1 year 11 days ago

Tulo for Bogaerts, Betts, Owens and Margot

I’ll hang up and listen.

BirdoInBoston
Member
BirdoInBoston
1 year 11 days ago

Wow, just wow.

Not even a Sox fan and I think this is insane. (and, given my Midwestern conservatism while speaking/writing, you don’t want to know what through-and-through Bostonians would say about this)

Pretend Ben Cherington
Guest
Pretend Ben Cherington
1 year 11 days ago

Please don’t call me again.

Manson
Guest
Manson
1 year 11 days ago

Bog alerts straight up might do it, but I’d think COL might then turn Xander around for pitching or OF, maybe package with CarGo and then bring up Trevor Story.

King Buzzo's Fro
Guest
King Buzzo's Fro
1 year 11 days ago

Bog Alert! Bog Alert! Cranberry time

Ruler of all things baseball
Guest
Ruler of all things baseball
1 year 10 days ago

Xander shall henceforth and forever be known as “bog alert”. So it shall be decreed. That is the best mangling of a name I have seen in quite some time.

Pe91
Guest
Pe91
1 year 11 days ago

Probobly wouldnt do bogaerts for tulo straight up nevermined betts owens and margot ur insane

alecthegreat
Member
alecthegreat
1 year 11 days ago

you’re right, prospects without a proven track record are WAYYY more worth it than a 5 WAR SS. People overvalue prospects so much, especially when most don’t end up anything more than replacement level

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
1 year 11 days ago

Alec – You do know baseball players are paid money, right? And that prospects are paid less of it than established veterans?

You can’t just say Tulo is a 5 WAR SS, therefore he’s more valuable than prospects. You have to discuss his contract, and come up with some estimation of the value of the prospects, and then compare Tulo’s production estimate versus his contract to the prospect group’s production estimates versus their pay.

admiralthrawn116
Member
admiralthrawn116
1 year 11 days ago

Too many Fantasy Baseball players in this thread. Your comment will fall on deaf ears.

People overvalue prospects way. Too. Much. I’m not saying a deal like this is great. It’s just NOT out of the question. Off the top of my head I can think of a couple major prospect blunders :Pedro Martinez, Miguel Cabrera … Are probably the most notable ones in the past 30 years. Does anyone remember any more blunders?

Anyway, the point is that tulo is a proven baseball all-star. When he’s in Colorado he’s the best player in baseball. When he plays elsewhere he’s the best short stop in baseball and a guy on his way to the hall of fame. People think their teams are mortgaging their future away. But, as you said most prospects end up being regular everyday players most don’t even pan out. Everyone thinks Betts is Babe Ruth reincarnate it’s silly.

joser
Guest
joser
1 year 10 days ago

Tillman, Adam Jones, and three other mere prospects for “proven veteran” Eric Bedard.

Mere prospcts Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for “proven veteran” Heathcliff Slocumb.

Mere prospect John Smoltz for “proven veteran” Doyle Alexander

Mere prospect Randy Johnson for “proven veteran” Mark Langston

Mere prospect Francisco Liriano (and Joe Nathan) for “proven veteran” A.J. Pierzynski.

Mere prospects Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling for “proven veteran” Mike Boddicker.

Mere prospects Sammy Sosa and Wilson Álvarez for “proven veteran” Harold Baines

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
1 year 10 days ago

Admiralthrawn – You do know baseball players are paid money, right? And that prospects are paid less of it than established veterans?

You can’t just say Tulo is a proven all-star, therefore he’s more valuable than prospects. You have to discuss his contract, and come up with some estimation of the value of the prospects, and then compare Tulo’s production estimate versus his contract to the prospect group’s production estimates versus their pay.

David
Guest
David
1 year 10 days ago

Yep, keep touting them prospects Red Sox fans. I mean I understand the whole idea of cheap salary contributors but when does a “prospect” lose its luster of being a “potentially” good player? Boegarts is a 0.4 WAR player last season, a 0.2 WAR player to start this season (throw in a -10 Off WAR last year and a -2 to start this season) and really does not show much signs of improving. It’s astonishing how many Red Sox fans will NOT let go of their prospects for anyone…….

Hamba
Member
Hamba
1 year 11 days ago

Unless these hypothetical GMs are negotiating over a hypothetical radio show, I don’t think you can hang up and listen. Or you could, but you wouldn’t be able to hear my answer. This sucks.

DoOrDie
Guest
DoOrDie
1 year 11 days ago

Who could the Yankees trade to get Tulo? Hard to see them putting the chips together, compared to the Red Sox or Mets. Then again, the Mets have no $$$ and the Red Sox have many infielders already. Still, I agree that those three teams seem the most likely landing spots.

Jose
Guest
Jose
1 year 11 days ago

They probably do, Judge/Bird/Severino and probably more pieces would be asked. No way Cashman offers anything close to what it would take.

Brian Cashman
Guest
Brian Cashman
1 year 10 days ago

Really Jose?? Let me show you how its done!

Brian Cashman
Guest
Brian Cashman
1 year 10 days ago

Really Jose?? Are you sure? Because I can make bad trades better than anyone!!

dubinsky
Guest
dubinsky
1 year 10 days ago

Severino and one of Judge/Bird and J R Murphy and another pitching prospect such as Lindgren for Tulo might be a lot and might be enough and might be affordable.

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
1 year 11 days ago

Given his age, contract, injury history and his performance so far this year, would it even take any big-time prospects? If the Yankees are willing to take on his entire contract, I wouldn’t think big pieces would need to go to Colorado.

Along the same lines, if the Rockies get Bogaerts or Syndergaard/Flores, I would think that Colorado would have to pick up some of the contract. He clearly has the most upside of any SS in the game over the next couple years, but there’s a lot of risk with Tulowitzki.

Costanza
Guest
Costanza
1 year 11 days ago

Yes, significant value will need to be returned. There will be other teams bidding, so you can be sure that a collection of B prospects would be topped.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 11 days ago

Especially considering the optics of it – “we traded our franchise player for…some tinker toys! We got back nothing of interest but hey we can always stick another 100 million in the owners’ already deep pockets, so that’s something!”

Probably wouldn’t play well.

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
1 year 11 days ago

Jason, I think that’s a reason that a trade will be tough to finalize. It’s very hard for a team to give away their franchise player for salary relief, but teams aren’t going to overpay just so that the Rockies can save face. I really have no idea what Tulowitzki would make on the open market, but if it’s not more than his current contract then they shouldn’t expect to get some serious prospects.

It’s not much different than owing $300K on your mortgage when your house is worth $250K. Someone won’t make you an offer for $300K just to help you out. You either take the loss, or stay in your house and keep paying down the mortgage.

This all changes if GM’s view his contract favorably, but I have no idea if they do or don’t.

JC
Guest
JC
1 year 11 days ago

The Yankees wouldnt accept that deal anyways.

Kevin
Guest
Kevin
1 year 11 days ago

I agree wholeheartedly with this. I made the comment on another thread, but I don’t see how Dave feels that Troy Tulowitzki brings the Rockies some top tier of prospects, but Cole Hamels is worth a bag of baseballs.

Cole Hamels over the last three years has been worth 13.3 WAR, averaging 31 starts per season.
Troy Tulowitzki over the last three years has been worth 11.8 WAR, averaging 88 games per season.

Hamels is due 94/4, with a 20M team option (6 M buyout)
Tulo is due 114/6, with a 15M team option (4M buyout)

Hamels is 31
Tulo is 30

Granted, Tulowitzki’s 2012, which I’m including in those numbers, was his worst since 2008, and he’s typically been worth a half win to a win more than Hamels has. But he’s also on the wrong side of 30 with a scary injury history to be paying nine figures to. If I were another GM, I wouldn’t be super-eager to trade for a player carrying that much risk and that big of a commitment, especially if it meant destroying my farm system to make it happen.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

And if you change your analysis to the last two years, your result changes. Or the last 5. Poor use of stats.

Cando
Guest
Cando
1 year 11 days ago

No money? The mets have the 2nd lowest salary cap in the league this year so they have way more then enough money to spend he even says it in the artical they have the players and money its just the timeing and the owners not being jews about it literally they are jewish and they said themselves they do not want to spend money on this team

Captain Obvious
Guest
Captain Obvious
1 year 11 days ago

The fact that the owners are both Jewish and cheap does not mean it’s okay to use the word “Jew” as a slur meaning “cheap.”

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 11 days ago

Thanks, Captain Obvious :)

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

I’m no grammar Nazi or anything but if you can’t spell the word “timing” correctly, there are surely better uses of your time than slinging racial/ethnic/religious slurs on a sabr message board.

K
Guest
K
1 year 11 days ago

Get off my artical!

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

I think it’s funny that you invoked the phrase “grammar Nazi” in insulting an anti-Semite. Kudos.

beeredenglishmanhater
Guest
beeredenglishmanhater
1 year 11 days ago

It’s idiots like englishman who throw around labels like “anti semite” so freely to feel above the other. Total douche.

Zen Madman
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

Douché, beeredenglishmanhater.

King Buzzo's Fro
Guest
King Buzzo's Fro
1 year 11 days ago

you’re cheap on the punctuation

FeslenR
Guest
FeslenR
1 year 11 days ago

The Mets can get it done if the Rockies eat some of the contract. Even so, yeah, the Wilpons are cheap.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

The Wilpons going from profligate spenders to being cheap is what turned the franchise from an overpriced laughing stock to one poised for sustained future success. It was one of the best things that has happened to the team in decades.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

I wanted to add that they’re frugal, not cheap.

FeslenR
Guest
FeslenR
1 year 11 days ago

no arguments here, but funnily enough, they “lost money” on the Maddoff Scam, if you believe them. IF they didn’t, they would never restrain from spending like they did during Omar’s time.

ralicea
Guest
ralicea
1 year 10 days ago

First and foremost an Owner who allows his team to remain in the cellar for 4-6 years is not frugal but cheap and not worthy of owning a baseball team.

hscer
Member
1 year 11 days ago

So by this time next year, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets will have at shortstop some combination of Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond, and Hanley Ramir–um, someone else.

attgig
Member
attgig
1 year 11 days ago

“This is the Astros rebooting their fan base writ large, with one grand gesture to show everyone in Queens that the team is serious about winning and that the Wilpons will spend money when it’s needed”

typo…

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 11 days ago

Not really. It’s maybe a little vague; I believe Dave means that this is the Astros SITUATION “writ large”; that is, the Mets are in the same situation as the Astros, except on a larger scale due to the larger market size of New York versus Houston.

My echo and bunnymen
Guest
My echo and bunnymen
1 year 10 days ago

Thank you, I was quite confused on that.

zmacattack
Member
zmacattack
1 year 11 days ago

Tulo to Nats? Having the pitching depth/prospects that would certainly pique the Rockies interest, and for the Nats they have a better shortstop, avoid overpaying for Desmond and could move Tulo to first to fill in for an aging Zimmerman when Turner is ready for SS.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

Well, Tulo has already said that he’d retire before he was moved off of SS, but lets ignore that for a second. Wouldn’t it make more sense to move Tulo to 3B when Turner comes up and move Rendon to 2B? After all, Zimmerman is under contract through 2019 with an option year, and it’s not like the Nats could just move him to the DH spot.

As for this season, the Nats could trade for Tulo, shift Desmond to 2B, and then play Rendon at 3B when he returns. And if they get an offer for Dessy that they really like, they could trade him off and have Yuni play 2B.

kid
Member
kid
1 year 11 days ago

Rendon is an amazing talent but he’s proving to be even more fragile than Tulo is.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

Even if they dealt Dessy away, they still have Espinosa to play 2B if not Uggla. The Nats have extraordinary depth which has allowed them to keep up with the Mets and to overcome Atlanta’s hot start despite not having Span, Werth (they still don’t really have Werth yet), and Rendon to start the season.

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
1 year 11 days ago

Did you say they have extraordinary depth right after mentioning Espinosa and Uggla? In the last 3 years, Uggla’s been below replacement and Espinosa’s been worth under 1 win. They may have put together a few clutch at bats this year, but they shouldn’t be cited as extraordinary depth.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

Haha exactly viva. Arguably the biggest factor as to why the Nats are, at this moment, looking up at Mets is because of their shitty depth. This is especially noticeable when compared to the Mets very solid depth.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

Yes, because Espinosa hasn’t put up a 122 wRC+ so far or a positive DEF score, nor has he ever put up back to back 3+ fWAR seasons. It’s so easy to forget that Espinosa has been a better than average player just because he was replacement level in 531 PA’s spanning the last two years, and that this year’s peripherals so far look even better than when he put up his best years. It’s not like he’s averaged 2.4 fWAR/600 PA’s for his career either.

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
1 year 11 days ago

Espinosa and Uggla are both studs. Wait, it is 2011, right?

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
1 year 11 days ago

But Stuck, the Mets are playing without their best offensive player in David Wright, and their #1 catcher. They were also projected to be far inferior to Washington this year. The fact that the Nats are even trying to keep up with the Mets, instead of the other way around, is very telling.

Yes, Espinosa was good in 2011 and 2012. But it’s 2015 now. You can’t just gloss over his terrible 2013 and 2014 seasons because he’s been good for the last month. If he gets back to the 2011/2012 version of himself, then he would certainly qualify as good depth. It takes more than 83 at bats to show that though.

As for Uggla, I’m not sure anything else needs to be said.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

Viva, both have been at least replacement level so far, with Espinosa being more than a half win above that so far. If the Nats didn’t have those two, they’d be relying on waiver fodder or they’d be using Tony Renda or Josh Johnson, neither one is likely to perform better than either Uggla or Espinosa. They’re not instrumental to the Nats success, but they’re helping.

All we need to know when we’re looking at how a team got to where it is, is the performance of it’s players to that date. Espinosa doesn’t have to be good if/when Rendon comes back, what matters is that he HAS BEEN good so far. The depth that Uggla and Espinosa have provided HAS helped the Nats get back over .500. If Rendon comes back tomorrow and plays similarly to last year and Espinosa dropped dead, the Nats would still have OK depth and Espinosa would have been an important piece to fill in the gaps until Rendon came back. I’m not saying that Espinosa is amazing, just that he’s proven himself to be a decent backup capable of playing excellent 2B defense and solid SS defense and not incompetent with the bat, save his 2013 in which he only played 44 games due to a torn rotator cuff. And lets face it, that might have been an issue for him last year when he posted a 75 wRC+.

I think most teams would consider themselves lucky to have three players that could play all over the infield and provide 1.3 fWAR while their best IF was out for over a month.

And lets not kid ourselves about Wright, the Mets basically haven’t had him since 2013. You’re also comparing the loss of the three best position players on the team last year, who combined for 15.5 fWAR to two guys who last year managed 3 fWAR. It’s not exactly a fair statement, even if you regressed Wright closer to his career average fWAR and assumed that d’Arnaud would improve.

Dovif
Guest
Dovif
1 year 11 days ago

Only a homer would think Washington had been hit harder by injuries or that 1 month of not horrible stats= depth as oppose to last 3 years of below replacement level production.

Mets had been hit far harder by injures with wright darnauld wheeler Parnell black and mejia. Your selective use of 100ab 1 year or 3 years won’t change that

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

First you said:

“The Nats have extraordinary depth which has allowed them to keep up with the Mets and to overcome Atlanta’s hot start despite not having Span, Werth (they still don’t really have Werth yet), and Rendon to start the season.”

Then you said:

“Viva, both have been at least replacement level so far, with Espinosa being more than a half win above that so far.”

Sorry Stuck, but there is a big difference between “extraordinary” and “well at least they’ve been replacement level”. When fully healthy, the Nats have many strengths and few weaknesses. Position prayer depth is not one of those strengths.

stuck in a slump
Guest
stuck in a slump
1 year 11 days ago

One had been replacement level, the other has been worth 0.7 fWAR, and yet another player who was expected to play one position is playing fairly well at another. Between just Escobar and Espinosa you can cover three positions. When your worst bench piece is replacement level, you’re doing better than most mlb teams.

And dovif, you really think that losing Span, Werth, and Rendon is less than losing a sophomore catcher who was below league average last year and Wright? Seriously?! Is it because he had one good week before he got hurt? Or is it the fact that he was absolutely terrible last year? Oh, I’m sorry I forgot a couple of relievers and a guy who is still hurt from last year, yeah the mets should have expected a lot from them.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

You’re greatly underselling the amount of talent the Mets lost. They lost their best player in Wright. Travis d’Arnaud put up 1.3 WAR in only 100 starts and he’s an excellent pitch framer so say he was below league average is a bit misleading. He was on tear to start the year, he had a big second half last year and he was one of the highest regarded young catchers in the sport during his time in minors. So come on, let’s stop talking about him like he’s Josh Thole. They lost Zack Wheeler who was expected to be a #3 with major upside this year. And they didn’t just lose a couple of mediocre relievers. They lost their closer in Mejia and another late inning guy in Black. And now they’ve taken a depth hit with Montero and Gee going down. I think the Mets have pretty clearly been hit harder.

Eric R
Guest
Eric R
1 year 11 days ago

“Well, Tulo has already said that he’d retire before he was moved off of SS, but lets ignore that for a second. ”

OK, it’s been a couple of hours… he would retire and forfeit ~$110M and not be able to play at any level above the Independent leagues, rather than play another position?

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 10 days ago

Yeah, he would grouse, and then move. It’s a rather silly story.

(As it’s often said, people don’t stay mad at their money…)

Garrett
Guest
Garrett
1 year 10 days ago

An acquiring team could only hope and dream that he continues to take that stand. The last years of the deal could get real ugly. Would be nice to move him to a different position and have him forfeit the remainder of the contract.

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

Where exactly does the aging Zimmerman go in that scenario? The AL?

zmacattack
Member
zmacattack
1 year 11 days ago

Trade a non essential piece for more roster specific upgrades or move him to a corner outfield. Contract is pretty cost efficient for a player of his caliber and given inflation he could be a steal. Probably would have to go to the Al, but he doesnt get moved until turner is ready in this scenario so who knows who will want him in 2/3 years?

davels
Guest
davels
1 year 11 days ago

Also wanted to note… the “aging Zimmermann” is exactly 12 days older than Tulo.

Brian Cashman
Guest
Brian Cashman
1 year 10 days ago

I will trade for him!! I don’t need him but I will do it anyway to keep my crown as THE MASTER wheeler dealer!!

froggy
Guest
froggy
1 year 11 days ago

Hey Dave, I dunno where else to put this, but can you guys do anything about preventing autoplay video ads on the site? I want you guys to make $$ from advertising, but man those get me thinking about AdBlock.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

At work, where I can’t have Adblock, those things drive me nuts!

Matthew
Guest
Matthew
1 year 11 days ago

Pay for Fangraphs+ if you are going to use Adblock.

octelium
Guest
octelium
1 year 11 days ago

I can’t tell you how many times I close browser windows and stop reading articles because something starts to autoplay. Really frustraiting

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
1 year 10 days ago

I don’t use adblock, but I use something that blocks Flash. So many pages have Flash these days, so it makes things a lot faster when it doesn’t autoload. I still see the ads on the bottom of the article, but I don’t have anything that autoplays.

Tuscan Chicken
Guest
Tuscan Chicken
1 year 11 days ago

I’m not the only one hoping their fantasy SS is traded to the Rox, right?

JMKUHNER
Member
JMKUHNER
1 year 11 days ago

I don’t see how the Rockies possibly get enough talent in return from any team in MLB to trade Tulo. This would have to be a Colon for Lee, Phillips, and Sizemore type deal and teams are no longer willing to part with that type of MiLB talent any more.

And when will we start these same articles with the Angels & Mike Trout because the Angels future is pretty grim outside of Trout & Calhoun. So let’s be proactive and trade him to the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox too!

(Why yes, I am wearing my purple colored glasses, why do you ask?)

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

The Lee Phillips Sizemore type deal is not indicative of an era of GM strategy; it’s indicative of that particular GM being a doofus.

JMKUHNER
Member
JMKUHNER
1 year 11 days ago

Agreed. And that’s why we won’t see a trade since neither GM involved will want to be labeled a doofus by Well Beered Englishmen everywhere. Fear of screwing up and job security are real motivating factors for these guys. Birdich doesn’t want to be the guy who traded a franchise cornerstone for a bucket of balls. And, a potential trading partner doesn’t want to be the guy who gave up too soon on a group of prospects who would have brought a longer period of sustained success for his club.

KDL
Guest
KDL
1 year 11 days ago

Also indicative of a team that at the time of the trade had about a 50-50 chance of literally not having a future. No sense in planning for the future, if there won’t be one.

Roger
Guest
Roger
1 year 11 days ago

A doofus, yes, but more importantly a doofus who believed, with some justification, that his team was about to be contracted.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

Not at all. You’re completely ignoring the fact that the GM was working under the belief that his team was about to get contracted. I’d sell the farm too.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

Agreed. Omar Minaya has had many failings as a GM, but that trade when viewed in its proper context, isn’t one of them.

Rueben Amaro JR
Guest
Rueben Amaro JR
1 year 10 days ago

Excuse me sir?

Matthew
Guest
Matthew
1 year 11 days ago

I’m not that concerned with Boegarts bat, but rather he defense long term. People will say Sandoval to DH, but Sandoval’s bat won’t carry him there.

It is a shame Wheeler for hurt. A Tulo-Xander-Wheeler deal would have been fun,

Hmk
Guest
Hmk
1 year 11 days ago

Where do you get your drugs????

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
1 year 10 days ago

It’s not clear what you’re saying, but it is pretty clear that it is wrong.

K.P. Yucong
Guest
K.P. Yucong
1 year 11 days ago

I think it is about time for Major League Baseball to end its little experiment in Denver. Baseball is not baseball there. I know they’ve tried the humidor to some success but the park they play in is way too much of a hitters park and just changes the game too much. I like quirky stadiums and can live with the fact that not all stadiums (and environments) are equal. I think that is a pleasant pare of baseball. But baseball at Coors Field is just too quirky. Outfielders having to play way too deep. Pitchers not being able to throw their regular arsenal of pitches very well due to the thin air. They should just move the Rockies to some other baseball loving city where the elevation does not corrupt the game.

LTP
Guest
LTP
1 year 11 days ago

Yeah! And while we’re at it the Red Sox should move out of Fenway. The small outfield and the green monster distort the game and force pitchers to pitch differently and turn routine fly balls into doubles.

Oh wait, that’s a historical field so they get a pass while the expasnion team gets attacked…

Patrick Star
Guest
Patrick Star
1 year 11 days ago

We should take Coors Field and…push it somewhere else!

See Are
Guest
See Are
1 year 11 days ago

This may be the most insane comment I’ve read on this site. Move baseball from Colorado? http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance Rockies just have dealt with a stupid GM for the past 16 years and year after year of terrible draft picks.

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 11 days ago

The Rockies’ problem is not the park. The Rockies’ problem is poor management.

tz
Guest
tz
1 year 11 days ago

I think not only should Denver keep its team, but they should embrace their high altitude and get rid of the humidor. Then focus all your energies on building a killer offensive team and use the bargain bin for your pitching.

In other words, create the most demoralizing place possible for visiting pitchers, and get the best home-field advantage in sports. Might look awful some years, but might also take the Rox over the top.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 11 days ago

Agreed. They have not been able to develop a worthwhile starter since…Pedro Astacio? Just ditch the humidor and revel in the 18-13 games.

SandyK
Member
SandyK
1 year 11 days ago

A successful Denver team would, paradoxically, probably need to be a contact-oriented small-ball team, a lot like the Royals. If you can use the massive outfield to your advantage, like the Royals do at Kauffman, and defend better than your opponents, you can probably win a lot of games even without great pitching.

highrent
Guest
highrent
1 year 11 days ago

They need a team similar how the 2014 As were a reasonably defensive sound team with fantastic flyball tendencies. Get rid of the humidor and use good defense and lots of flyballs. The flyablls strategy will work in most road parks thats not PNC. Dump everything into good position players. Create a GB pitching staff similar to the Pirates and load the infield with good defenders. SHift aggressively. Use excellent pitch framers to get the most out of pitchers. Leverage the highest player war possible. It will be hard but the way to win in Colorado is to have a player war of 35 or so.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

That’s the wrong strategy. They should use the KC Royals plan. Elite defense and obscene baserunning by guys who don’t strike out. That plays up at Coors and on the road. They’ve already started with Tulo and Arenado.

jfree
Member
jfree
1 year 11 days ago

This is utter stupidity. Money talks. Denver had higher attendance than every other NL team for the entire 1990’s – and the population has grown significantly/richer since then. After 20 years of on-field futility, the team is still easily in the top half of attendance. The stadium/situation is one of the better in baseball and the current owner is able to make a lot of money without having to spend much on a ‘winning team’. My guess is that 20 existing MLB franchises would kill puppies to swap places with the Rockies.

And altitude is not the reason for anything. The previous teams there regularly won their league championships (Bears/Zephyrs won 7 championships in the 20 years before expansion; Sky Sox had winning records in all four years and one championship before they became a Rockies affiliate). Half the Mexican League plays at ballparks with similar ‘altitude issues’.

The problem with the Rockies is the owner. Not the location.

JMKUHNER
Member
JMKUHNER
1 year 11 days ago

And you would spend your money how if you were Monfort? Buying Free Agent pitchers who are rarely produce the going rate of $/WAR/season for the teams that sign them, let alone in Denver. That’s not sustainable or realistic.
How about throwing money at the bullpen, MLBs most volatile positions from year to year? That seems foolhardy as well.
There’s not a lot of obvious positional upgrades to made, so I am truly curious what your money would be spent on if you were Monfort?

jfree
Member
jfree
1 year 11 days ago

I actually don’t think its about spending money. First, he has to replace himself as Prez. That person needs to overhaul the organization (get a freaking club rookie team like everyone else, new medical/training staff, scout in Mexico not DR). And the new GM should probably be from outside baseball (or at least a serial rule-breaker to both the old-school and saber branches).

I really don’t think the standard ‘rebuild a baseball team from scratch’ applies to the Rockies – which is why I think the idea of trading Tulo/CarGo is half-baked. the Rockies need a new organization making decisions into the future – not mere roster changes.

K.P. Yucong
Guest
K.P. Yucong
1 year 11 days ago

You have completely failed at reading my post correctly. Not once did I mention that the Rockies were a good or bad team. That makes no difference to me. The game of baseball should not be played at the professional level at 5200 feet. It effects the integrity of the game, with the number one culprit how the ball travels and spins. Think physics here. The humidor and extra large outfield are lipstick on the pig.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

We understand what you have written. You don’t understand that we think what you have written is exceptionally stupid. It’s actually hard to believe the extent, actually.

jfree
Member
jfree
1 year 11 days ago

Integrity of the game depends on how the ball spins?

jimmymanners
Guest
jimmymanners
1 year 11 days ago

The Rox biggest problem is that while Coors is the biggest hitter’s park, most of the rest of their division is extreme pitcher’s parks. They missed the boat a few years ago when they should have begged to go to the AL instead of Houston. AL West would fit their style of play much better, and getting another hitter in the lineup couldn’t hurt them either. As things stand now, the home to road transition just kills them.

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 10 days ago

Jimmy, those pleas would’ve fallen on deaf ears. At the time, the NL Central had 6 teams while the AL West had 4; it made most sense to move a team from the former to the latter, if the goal was having all the divisions balanced and ensuring year-round inter league play. At the same time, Houston was going through a sale, so it was the perfect opportunity for Bud to strong arm McClane and make the sale contingent on the team moving to the AL. The situation was too convenient and too perfect. The Rockies never would have had a chance.

jimmymanners
Guest
jimmymanners
1 year 10 days ago

Phillies, if the Rockies had asked to move, with Houston taking their spot in the NL West, Bud would have supported it. As long as the divisions got balanced, he didn’t care how it happened.

K.P. Yucong
Guest
K.P. Yucong
1 year 11 days ago

I think most (all?) of you are missing the point. Professional baseball in Denver is NOT professional baseball. Pitchers struggle to get their breaking balls to break. It is like having the Olympic 100 meters ran in mud or golf on the moon. Pro baseball in Denver has been a huge failure and its time to move the team. You can give the city back minor league baseball but not a pro team. Places like Fenway Park are different, yes the stadium is quirky and it effects the game a little bit but pitchers are still able to use their complete arsenal of pitches and expect them to move as expected.

jfree
Member
jfree
1 year 11 days ago

This is nonsense. Baseball in Denver affects BOTH teams that play there. Baseball survived the days when one baseball lasted the entire game – and was full of spit by the end of the game. It survived the days when lefties actually played SS/2B/3B/C. Baseball survived before the curveball was even invented.

Baseball should remain in Denver if only to provide an object lesson to sabermetricians in how one should deal with outliers

K.P. Yucong
Guest
K.P. Yucong
1 year 11 days ago

This is nonsense. This is not the year 1857 by the way.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
1 year 11 days ago

And yeet, you’re perfectly ok with parks that have the opposite effect? I’m not hearing you complain about SF, SD, OAK, or SEA because of their humid climates (and in the case of SF, OAK and SEA, cool climates) and ballpark designs that allow pitches to break better and have forced pitchers who have big downward movement on their pitches to adjust, or how these parks and locations kill HR power. So a park that minimizes the game is cool, but parks that inflate it can’t possibly host real baseball, even though both teams playing are a part of MLB and are full of MLB talent.

Ian R.
Guest
Ian R.
1 year 11 days ago

I like the implication here that minor league baseball is somehow not professional baseball.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
1 year 11 days ago

And yet earlier said that the baseball played in Colorado isn’t professional baseball.

I’d imagine that the Rockies will acquire a lot more from trading Tulo now that he’s been declared an amateur and isn’t owed $110 million.

Zen Madman
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

If golf were played on the moon, I might actually watch it.

guest_54
Guest
guest_54
1 year 10 days ago

I’d like to play golf on the moon and when I run the 100 meter it looks and feels like I’m running in mud. As others have said, we understand what you’re saying. It’s just a REALLY bad argument and I consider myself to be more of a baseball “purist.” It’s just not working. Move on.

CrazyPants
Guest
CrazyPants
1 year 11 days ago

Yeah a retractable dome would be the right fix for that stadium.

Wobatus
Guest
Wobatus
1 year 11 days ago

Well, aside from money, it would be interesting to hear what the Mets would half to do to get this done if they wanted to. Matz, Cecchini, and Conforto or Nimmo? Or would they prefer Amed Rosario? he’s pretty far away. Would the Rox need Syndergaard in the deal? Is none of that enough? Would they need some major leaguers in there? Cecchini was getting treated like a busted pick until recently but he actually had a 101 wRC+ last year as a 20 year old ss and has been hot to start this year. At least Carson has taken notice in the fringe 5. :)

Frankly, although it might put them over the top this year for playoff contention, I’m not sure I’d do it if I’m the Mets.

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 11 days ago

There’s no way the Mets would make either of those trades.

FeslenR
Guest
FeslenR
1 year 10 days ago

Although their lack of offense was on full painful display last night in Syndergaard’s debut. I love your screen name, by the way, Za.

All hail the mighty pizza!

Wobatus
Guest
Wobatus
1 year 10 days ago

Yeah, like I said, I wouldn’t. But since the article speculated them as a possible trade partner, it’s kinda pointless without saying who the Rockies would want back. I mean, if it’s Montero and Plawecki? maybe Mets do it but Rox don’t? I dunno. I think the finances kinda aren’t there anyway. And Tulo has been injury prone, and didn’t Garciaparra kinda start declining after 30? It makes sense with the Mets maybe for this year, but they have a decent pipeline now and should only be getting better over next couple of years.

fothead
Guest
fothead
1 year 11 days ago

I think the team that deals for Tulo will have to also take CarGo’s salary with him. Similar to the Agon/Crawford/Beckett deal. The Dodgers really only wanted AGon, but took on the additional salary instead of pay more in talent. I could easily see the Yanks doing this. In this scenario, teh Yanks would have to headline with Severino, but I think they could keep both Judge and Bird if it becomes more of a salary dump. One middle-to-top prospect pitcher, a salary reset and maybe Gary Sanchez and Refsnyder/Pirela should be enough of a reurn for the Rox in that situation should it occur. The days of including multiple top prospects in a deal for an over 30 guy are basically done. Even for the Yanks. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the lack of FA money spent this year was to first see how things would shake out knowing a few big pieces with high salaries are available through trade.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 11 days ago

Quick question:

The Rockies probably won’t trade him within their own division, so the Dodgers and Padres are out too, even if maybe they would like to be in. It’s just too difficult to see Colorado letting Tulo play against them 19 times per year for the next six years. So that’s 10 more clubs off the list.

How does not trading him within the division knock ten more clubs off the list? That is one big-ass division.

Art Vandelay
Member
Member
Art Vandelay
1 year 11 days ago

“Marlins, Orioles, Giants, Cubs, Royals, Cardinals, Tigers and Nationals. The Rockies probably won’t trade him within their own division, so the Dodgers and Padres are out too”

I get it, reading is hard.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 10 days ago

The preceding sentence knocks out eight teams. And then says they wouldn’t trade him within the division which would knock ten more teams off the list. Not trading him within the division is knocking out two more in addition to the eight already listed, not ten more.

I know, reading IS hard apparently?

Dreamin
Guest
Dreamin
1 year 10 days ago

Sentences get grouped in things called paragraphs. It’s almost as if he eliminates two sets of groups separately, then summarizes the paragraph in the final sentence.

Felix
Guest
Felix
1 year 11 days ago

Maybe read the preceding sentence that you neglected to include in your quote?

jfree
Member
jfree
1 year 11 days ago

The big problem with all these trade scenarios and the usual speculation about a Tulo/CarGo trade is that you assume the decision by the Rockies is going to involve something-something-baseballteam. It’s not.

The Rockies owner doesn’t care much or know much about ‘baseball’. That is merely the activity that occurs on the field while the paying fans are busy spending money on more important things (to the owner). Tulo is only a ‘shortstop’ to those fans who pay attention to the game. To everyone else, he is the only player who is known to even the casual ‘fan’ and out-of-towner.

Replacing Tulo means that the owner is supposed to take a chance that some unknown nobody will continue to draw fans – while some GM spins tales about some bright future that may or may not result from having a good ‘baseball’ team on the field. Good luck with that.

Nolan Arenado
Guest
Nolan Arenado
1 year 11 days ago

My smile not winsome enough for you?

Richard Bergstrom
Guest
1 year 11 days ago

I think Tulo is a little undervalued in this article. It’s not like he’ll be given away cheaply to the Red Sox or Yankees. The talk a year ago was a Cardinals trade for Shelby Miller, Matt Adams and something. I’m not sure the Yankees can put that together. The Rockies probably wouldn’t be as interested in Bogaerts with their own Trevor Story waiting in the minor leagues. The Mets would probably have to gut their farm system to do it and would likely want a catching prospect (d’Arnaud/Plaweczki) back as well as a pitching prospect.

On the other hand, the Rockies were 11-17 to start the 2007 season and 20-30 to start the 2009 season and made the playoffs both times. It’s too early to write them off completely. Just like last year, they are getting unlucky with run sequencing, given their high number of hits and extra base hits yet low number of runs. Unless the Rockies run scoring actually doesn’t have to do with luck, then it should even out.

MLB Rainmaker
Member
Member
MLB Rainmaker
1 year 11 days ago

Gotta love that backhanded compliment at the end. The Mets, leading their division by 2.5 games, are “probably a legit wildcard contenders”…

Surly Duff
Guest
Surly Duff
1 year 10 days ago

If you saw the way the Mets have swung the bats the last couple of weeks, you’d understand.

LHPSU
Guest
LHPSU
1 year 11 days ago

The Rockies probably won’t trade him within their own division, so the Dodgers and Padres are out too, even if maybe they would like to be in. It’s just too difficult to see Colorado letting Tulo play against them 19 times per year for the next six years.

A less than convincing argument coming only a few months after the Matt Kemp trade. It’s not like the Rockies have never traded within division, even if the players involved were not near the caliber of Tulo.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

Terrible comparison. There are a bunch of factors that Dave didn’t mention. Kemp had a contract that nobody wanted any part of. The Dodgers had to kick in $30M as part of the deal and got back a not so significant piece in Grandal. Tulo has a very favorable contract and many teams figure to be interested in bidding hard. Kemp is a poor defender at a non-premium position. Tulo is a plus defender at an ultra premium position. A healthy Tulo is probably the best player in the NL. A healthy Kemp wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team last year. The Dodgers had zero leverage because everyone knew that they desperately wanted to dump at least one of Kemp, Crawford and Ethier. The Rox are in no such position. They have plenty of options. The Dodgers likely didn’t.

Spa City
Member
Spa City
1 year 11 days ago

I have never understood the reluctance to trade a player within your own division. Why would a team willingly limit its potential return in this manner?

The Padres are a perfect fit. They could create a package centered around Renfroe and Hedges. They are going “all in” to win in the short term. They have made moves designed to demonstrate that they are a relatively big market team. They still have enough minor league talent to make another acquisition.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 11 days ago

The problem is a guy like Tulo will generate offers from multiple teams. Sure if the Pads and Dodgers overwhelmed them with a godfather type offer, sure they’d be more likely to accept the trade and deal with the potential fallout. But it’s gonna take an overwhelming offer. It’s tough enough for fans to come to grips losing an icon. Having said icon pummel your team 19 times a year while rebuilding is adding insult to injury. Players of Tulo’s caliber rarely get traded as it is but there is a reason teams rarely trade superstars within the division.

CrazyPants
Guest
CrazyPants
1 year 11 days ago

Yeah did I read this piece correctly and the Pads weren’t even mentioned?!

Baseball Guy
Guest
Baseball Guy
1 year 10 days ago

It’s more because they don’t match up with the Rox at all. They traded all their pitching talent already. Hedges might vaguely interest the Rox (although they have a couple other highly regarded C’s in their system already). Renfroe is of little interest. Now, if they’re willing to talk about Ross or Cashner, sure.

Spa City
Member
Spa City
1 year 11 days ago

Tulowitzki’s contract seems reasonable in its remaining length and dollar value. He is an MVP candidate who produces value on offense and defense, and his contract should expire before he is too far into his decline years (assuming an unremarkable decline).

On the open market, Tulowitzki would receive something along the lines of 8 years, $240 million. There is a lot of excess value here. Even teams like Pittsburgh and San Diego should be running offers by the Rockies.

Dovif
Guest
Dovif
1 year 11 days ago

Except tulo is an injured prone ss who could not stay heathy in his 20s playing ss. So the odds that he will struggle is much higher

Spa City
Member
Spa City
1 year 11 days ago

In a market in which Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano received 10 year/$240 million contacts, Prince Fielder: 9 years/$214 million, Joey Votto: 10 years/$225 million, Miguel Cabrera:10 years/$292 million, and both Ryan Howard and Josh Hamilton: 5 year/$125 million contracts (all of whom are older then Tulowitzki), it seems safe to believe that Tulowitzki’s remaining contract is not just below market price… it is so far below market price that it would be a no-brainer for any team to take on.

Tulowitzki has been a major leaguer for 8 seasons (not including his cup of coffee in ’06 or this season), and in 6 of those season he has produced at least 5 WAR.

The fact he is capable of that despite being injured frequently means he does not even need to remain healthy to justify (far more than) his $20 million AAV.

Tulowitzki’s relatively short, and extremely reasonable contract is really not that much of a gamble these days. The Rockies could re-stock their system very nicely if they play their cards right.

alex
Guest
alex
1 year 11 days ago

I don’t know if I’d be so quick to cross the cardinals off the list.

Heyward was looking like a potential big money extension candidate after the cards dealt for him last offseason, and with holliday and other large contracts coming off the books it looked as if the cardinals would be looking to have him step in as the guy. But with Heywards slow start at the plate and the fact he would be seeking an extension richer than the cardinals have ever/would ever sign, why not put together a package of prospects for tulo (Reyes piscotty and wong etc) and have an ultra infield. slide carpenter back to second (where the metrics have his defense as better anyway ) and move Peralta to 3rd.

Tulo is essentially already signed to a 5/100m extension to whoever trades for him. That kind of pricing is much more in line with the cardinals shrewd spending habits than giving Heyward 8 years 175-200m. Also with holliday and molina in the last year’s of their prime and waino going down for the season this could be the last chance mozeliak has to win with this core.

Scouting Director
Guest
Scouting Director
1 year 11 days ago

We should not even mention the words “Angels” or “Yankees” in any article centered around a superstar available through trade. Guys like Tulo require at least one ELITE prospect, a top-ten, top-twenty player (preferably a position player, given the lowered risk). These organizations simply don’t have one, nor will they soon. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!

CrazyPants
Guest
CrazyPants
1 year 10 days ago

That is simply not so, herr director. The Yankees system is quite strong.

Scouting Director
Guest
Scouting Director
1 year 7 days ago

There’s a difference between having a strong system and having an elite, close-to-MLB-ready prospect. The Indians, for example, don’t have a deep system, but if they offered Lindor as a core piece (along with, say, Frazier) for Tulo, then the Rockies would listen. The Yankees can’t touch that kind of offer.

lipitorkid
Member
lipitorkid
1 year 11 days ago

Tulo to the Cubs for:

Castro and Baez

The Rockies get SS/2B locked up. We get to see Baez in Colorado and the Cubs get a lineup that goes Bryant/Rizzo/Tulo.

Plus whatever other players you need to make this happen.

Baseball Guy
Guest
Baseball Guy
1 year 10 days ago

Rockies don’t need a 2B. LaMahieu so far in 2015 has been one of the best in baseball.

Big Wig
Guest
Big Wig
1 year 9 days ago

Szczur for the Zzz’s

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
1 year 10 days ago

Is Adeiny Hechevarria really an obstacle to acquiring Troy Tulowitzki? I’d add the Marlins back to the list.

mch38
Member
mch38
1 year 10 days ago

Is Kang, Glasnow and a Player to be named later a terrible offer to the Rockies from the Pirates?

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 10 days ago

I don’t know if the Rockies even pick up the phone.

Swfcdan
Guest
1 year 10 days ago

Wherever he goes I hope its soon as he’s doing nothing right now! He’s practically waiving the white flag to be traded, showing he cant be bothered to play for the Rox anymore. Therefore it better be soon or his trade value will continue to drop with this poor production.

Or is he hiding an injury, hoping to get dealt? Certainly doesnt look right, he isnt Tulo right now.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 10 days ago

Oh sure, Xander Bogaerts (on pace for a whopping 2 WAR season) is more than enough for Troy Tulowitzki. Hell, I think the Rox may even have to sweeten the deal a bit to get the poor man’s Asdrubal Cabrera.

Do the writers here ever get tired of pumping the pro-Red Sox agenda?

Jason Guilbault
Guest
Jason Guilbault
1 year 10 days ago

As a Red Sox fan, can Tulo pitch?

Bill
Guest
Bill
1 year 10 days ago

There are two teams in their division who will trade a lot….San Diego and LA. I know it’s inter division, but honestly if the Rockies got what they wanted then I could see a deal happening. No room in LA, but you could rope in a 3rd team for Kendrick or Rollins, and Not as much $$ in San Diego but what an upgrade for that team!

danny c
Guest
danny c
1 year 10 days ago

when’s the last time the yankees and red sox were actively involved in the bidding for the same player? doesn’t happen anymore.

M
Guest
M
1 year 10 days ago

Id be fine with Bogaerts+ for Tulo. While Bogaerts has imense upside its hard to see him outproducing Tulo over the next 3+ years. And Tulo’s salary really shouldnt be a problem. Napoli’s salary comes off the book next year and it pretty much covers what Tulo’s making. Plus getting Tulo just makes pitching less important as we should have a legit murders row lineup with him in it.

Sign me up

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