Long Balls Plaguing Brandon McCarthy

For those who subscribe to FanGraphs+, you have access to informative blurbs on nearly every major league player’s page. When writing about Brandon McCarthy for FG+, Jason Collette credited him with 80-grade social media presence. McCarthy is one of the good guys; he’s likable and easy to root for on many levels.

McCarthy’s had a weird start to the season. His first outing of the season was a mixed bag. In past seasons, his sinker topped out around 91 mph, but this year he has averaged 93 mph with the pitch. He allowed six hits and one walk in that inaugural outing and stranded only 35.7% of his base runners. OK, that’s some unlucky sequencing. Surely the increased velocity will return positive results in the next few outings. Right?

During his April 5 start, he allowed five fly balls. Three of them left the yard. His most recent turn was more impressive. He allowed one fly ball, which left the park. Add it up and McCarthy looks to have some bad luck dragons on his side. He now leads the league with a 41.7% HR/FB ratio, compared with his career rate of just 9.8%.

It’s easy to dismiss his small sample HR/FB rate because we know about things like small samples and what stats are most affected by them. However, a major league pitcher will probably tell you they bear some responsibility for the outcomes in individual games. With that in mind, let’s see what each of these home-run pitches looked like.

March 31, Brandon Belt


Belt HR

Here’s a pitch that ran right into the lefty-clobbering zone. McCarthy is trying to paint the inside corner with that sinker, but it leaks a bit too far over the plate.

April 5, Michael Cuddyer



Here we have a pitch that flattened out up over the middle of the zone. Cuddyer took it out to the opposite field and the ball had just enough juice to clear the wall.

April 5, Nolan Arenado #1


Arenado HR 1

If Cuddyer’s home run just barely cleared the wall, oh my. Let’s turn to the slow-mo.

Arenado HR closeup

So like with Cuddyer, this pitch was thrown to a bad location. It’s catching way too much plate. Yet this particular mistake was very nearly an out. You can see in the second GIF that Parra catches the ball and then loses it when he his glove hits the wall. Tough break.

April 5, Arenado No. 2


Arenado HR 2

Another pitch flattening out at the top of the zone. Whatever he’s trying to do to Arenado with these high pitches is not working.

April 11, Adrian Gonzalez



The pitch location looks fine considering it’s the first pitch of the at bat. I think McCarthy was trying to run it back over the plate like with the Belt home run [above], but his main goal is probably to get to an 0-1 count. Gonzalez drops the bat head onto the sinker, and it flies out of the park. In this case, I think McCarthy made a good pitch and got beat by a good hitter.

Parting Thoughts

So there we have it, five home runs. At least three of them were mistake pitches, perhaps all five. The most obvious mistakes occurred at Coors Field. The Rockies’ home field has a way of getting into a pitcher’s head, and the rarefied air can hamper pitch movement, too. The other problem area is with low-and-in sinkers against lefties. Both Belt and Gonzalez took that classic lefty swing and drove the ball deep and gone.

The good news for McCarthy is he’s rolling ground balls like a champ (63.8 GB%). It might be his new found velocity helping his sinker, or he could regress back to his career averages. His xFIP is a lovely 3.34, and he’s never been particularly home run prone. Better days are probably ahead.

Print This Post

Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.

31 Responses to “Long Balls Plaguing Brandon McCarthy”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. CabreraDeath says:

    And the fact that – despite his saber-friendly approach – he isn’t any good and hasn’t been for quite some time.

    -11 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Dan Rozenson says:

      Quite some time? He pitched over 280 innings in 2011 and 2012 and had a combined ERA of 3.29. That’s not that long ago.

      +9 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • MDL says:

        Did you just use ERA to argue that a saber-savvy pitcher is good? To your credit though, McCarthy’s xFIP has been 3.30, 4.23, 3.77 since 2011; a bit of volatility there but overall he seems like a solid pitcher.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Dan Rozenson says:

          Well, I was responding to someone who evidently has not looked at McCarthy’s stats in a long time if they think he hasn’t been good. So I thought I would start with the basics. Forgive me.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

      • RonnyRocket says:

        In a very pitcher friendly park. He should have stayed with Oakland for less money rather than go gold digging in Arizona.

        -7 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • MWoeppel says:

          Yeah, you’re right. He probably should have stayed in Oakland to keep his peripherals down rather than go somewhere else to make more money because that’s what you would do.

          +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • RonnyRocket says:

          As a matter of fact, I would. What is a few extra million? Would you rather have that or pitch for a winning team?

          -10 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Bip says:

          Gold digging? Jesus. Get over yourself.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Martin says:

          I’ll take the few million…

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Jason B says:

          I’ll go ahead and say what we all know and think–

          RonnyRocket is just flat-out lying. It’s hard to back up from one’s original bluster to say, “You know, I’m just wrong. OF COURSE I myself wouldn’t walk away from millions of dollars and shouldn’t expect anyone else to either.”

          No, we can’t admit we were wrong and maybe overstating our case just a tad. DOUBLE DOWN!

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Brad Johnson says:

          I believe McCarthy has been making his home in Arizona since before he was a Diamondback. At least that was the impression that I got.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        To be fair, we’re talking about a pitcher who has had an xFIP under 3.77 (His second best) once in any meaningful sized sample (This year is only 19.2 innings), has a career 4.24 xFIP to go with a 4.19 ERA and a 4.15 FIP and has had a long list of injuries not related to fluke getting hit on the head. I don’t think it is all that unfair to say McCarthy isn’t all that good when he posts very average FIP/xFIP numbers (xFIP- of 101, SIERA of 4.31 career) while being injury prone.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Brad Johnson says:

          So your argument is that he’s neither good nor bad. That’s fair.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Ruki Motomiya says:

          I’d say he is slightly below average: He pitches like an average pitcher but is more likely to miss time than an average pitcher at this point in his career, so he is slightly below average (to me). Not terrible, though.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Dan Rozenson says:

    He had a rough start to last season but recovered fairly well. BABIP was up very high in April last year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. derp says:

    Bad pitches or not, not every meatball gets mashed and really most of them are just popped up or dribbled to third. It’s still a bad run of luck no matter how it’s sliced.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Wandy Rodriguez says:

    Tell me about it, bro.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. TheGrandslamwich says:

    Am I the only one here so immature that I laughed at the title?

    +18 Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. ettin says:

    Now if only some saber-friendly fans would comment we’d have an equitable discussion.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Max says:

    As a Dbacks fan I’m suspicious of all our starting pitching. #FireKevinTowers

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • stonepie says:

      imagine if they kept scherzer, bauer, and skaggs.
      you could be looking at a rotation of the 3 of them plus miley and bradley by mid-summer.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • maxjusttyped says:

        It’s impossible to know how Skaggs, Bauer, and really Scherzer would have developed in Arizona.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

        • stonepie says:

          very true, i forgot to mention that. they made skaggs change his delivery which seemed to hinder his development (and velocity) and we all know about bauer’s situation with the d’backs organization.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. nate says:

    arizona fired charles nagy as pitching coach this offseason and brought in dave duncan (as a consultant) and mike harkey (as pitching coach). the entire staff has struggled to start the year (SP & RP) and i wonder if there is any correlation (i.e. they’re all doing the same different something that isn’t working… like pitch mix or something).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Matthew Murphy says:

    How long until we see a Notgraphs post of the same/similar title?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>