Looking Back at the 2013 Trade Value List

Next Monday, we’re kicking off one of the most popular things we do around here: the Trade Value series. It’s been an annual tradition for going on 10 years now, and I find it a nice distraction from the fact that the All-Star break fails to give us any interesting baseball to talk about. Plus, it gives you guys all kinds of ammunition to prove that I am, in fact, an idiot.

To that end, I’d like to look back at last year’s list, and make some comments about what we might have learned over the last calendar year. List first, then comments.

Rank Player Position
1 Mike Trout OF
2 Bryce Harper OF
3 Manny Machado 3B
4 Andrew McCutchen OF
5 Evan Longoria 3B
6 Buster Posey C
7 Matt Harvey SP
8 Giancarlo Stanton OF
9 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
10 Carlos Gonzalez OF
11 Yadier Molina C
12 Miguel Cabrera 1B
13 Troy Tulowitzki SS
14 Stephen Strasburg SP
15 Clayton Kershaw SP
16 Chris Sale SP
17 Jose Fernandez SP
18 Chris Davis 1B
19 Madison Bumgarner SP
20 Yu Darvish SP
21 David Wright 3B
22 Felix Hernandez SP
23 Adam Wainwright SP
24 Yasiel Puig OF
25 Dustin Pedroia 2B
26 Jurickson Profar SS
27 Jason Kipnis 2B
28 Byron Buxton OF
29 Xander Bogaerts SS
30 Matt Moore SP
31 Starling Marte OF
32 Shelby Miller SP
33 Carlos Gomez OF
34 Ian Desmond SS
35 Jose Bautista OF
36 Salvador Perez C
37 Anthony Rizzo 1B
38 Wil Myers OF
39 Carlos Santana C
40 Allen Craig 1B
41 Jeff Samardzija SP
42 Jean Segura SS
43 Jason Heyward OF
44 Anthony Rendon 3B
45 Edwin Encarnacion DH
46 Desmond Jennings OF
47 David Price SP
48 Adrian Beltre 3B
49 Justin Verlander SP
50 Austin Jackson OF

Now for the lessons.

It feels like every year I tell myself “no pitchers in the top 10” and every year I talk myself into why this guy or that guy should be the exception. Yeah, the risks are high, but this guy is so good that he’s worth it, right? No, they’re not. They’re going to blow out their arms at some point, and the recent surge in Tommy John surgeries is only going to make teams even more gun shy about building around pitching. Pitchers are great until they aren’t. Hitters have risks too, but they don’t regularly need a couple of years to go heal themselves. No pitchers in the top 10 this year. I swear.

Because the All-Star break was a week later last year, our last calendar year split isn’t exactly “since the list was published”, but it’s very close. And so, with that said, I present Buster Posey‘s line very close to since the list was published: .272/.339/.383, .316 wOBA, 105 wRC+, +2.6 WAR. That puts him right between Zack Cozart and Jimmy Rollins in overall value. His track record suggests that he’s better than this, but for the last year, Buster Posey hasn’t been very good, and he certainly won’t be this high again.

There were two guys who really gave me problems last year: Chris Davis and Yasiel Puig. Both were remarkable in small samples, and both provided the kind of skills that teams pay through the nose for. I ended up going with Davis over Puig, but ranked both pretty aggressively. Puig now looks low, while Davis looks high. I still don’t know what I should have done with them. And this year, I get to try and figure it out again with Jose Abreu.

The other challenging guys are star players with big contracts. Of course teams would pay through the nose to get Felix Hernandez, but then you see Justin Verlander and pause a little bit. Yeah, there are rich teams that would take the money, but would they take the money and give up premium talent like the other guys on this list in return? Maybe? I don’t know? I don’t know.

It’s kind of fitting that Dustin Pedroia, Jurickson Profar, Jason Kipnis, and Xander Bogaerts are all right next to each other. It’s like a club for middle infielders who were supposed to hit but haven’t. And Jean Segura thinks they’re all on fire.

Shelby Miller, almost since the list was published: 183 IP, 4.74 FIP, 4.68 xFIP. He’s in a three way tie — with Edinson Volquez and Eric Stults — for last in pitcher WAR among 79 qualified starters. This isn’t a slump. Shelby Miller is broken.

Will anyone challenge Mike Trout for the top spot this year? Who is going to be the highest ranked player that didn’t appear last year? What else should I have seen a year ago that proves, definitively, that I am an idiot? Let me know in the comments, and we’ll see you on Monday for this year’s edition of the list.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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vslyke
Member
1 year 10 months ago

Surely Freeman makes the list this year, right?

Chris
Guest
Chris
1 year 10 months ago

Freeman isn’t free. No, there’s a hefty friggin’ fee. And if you don’t throw in your buck-oh-five, who will?

Freeman costs a buck-oh-five!

mario mendoza
Guest
mario mendoza
1 year 10 months ago

Aids!

Boris Chinchilla
Guest
Boris Chinchilla
1 year 10 months ago

Don’t you give that Lochness Monster no $3.50!

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

McCutchen at #2 this year would not surprise me. I don’t think Harper can be lower than #3, though I can see him go down to #4.

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

And here’s a question: will Rendon or Strasburg be the second highest National now?

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 10 months ago

I can’t imagine any real GM thinking Bryce Harper is the 2nd, 3rd or 4th most valuable commodity in the sport. Injury prone, unrealized potential, arbitration eligible as a super two with Scott Boras who doesn’t negotiate and has publicly stated that Harper is worth more than Trout – recently. He would be highly sought after, but the hype has to match the results at some point. Top 10 to 15 for sure, but top 5 would be DC getting caught up in the hysteria…

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

We’ll find out what Dave thinks. But guess who the youngest player in the National League is this year.

Mike Trout has spoiled everybody.

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 10 months ago

Well, his performance this year isn’t very exciting. It’s because he’s been injured, but the “youngest in the league” thing isn’t so mind-blowing when the guy’s put up an 83 wRC+ with mediocre defense in left.

I think McCutchen should probably slide past him to #2. But Dave’s always been extremely high on Harper, so we’ll see.

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

Okay, allow me to rephrase that part: he has a career 124 wRC+ in 1222 PA and he’s STILL the youngest player in his league.

Here are a handful of people older than Bryce Harper: Oscar Taveras, Kris Bryant, Jon Singleton, Xander Bogaerts, Nick Castellanos.

cato the elder
Guest
cato the elder
1 year 10 months ago

Youngest player in the league is less relevant than arbitration year/Super 2 status, no?

AK7007
Member
AK7007
1 year 10 months ago

You have hysteria if you think that there is some huge unrealized potential and injury proneness when we are talking about a 21yr old.

Although, I’m sure by trying to point that out to you, I will be labeled a Nationals homer – regardless of the fact that I live on the other coast and follow the Giants.

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 10 months ago

His style of play has established a propensity for injuries. That is an empirical fact, my friend. And he is one of the most talented, highest ceiling players of our generation – that is the exact definition of huge unrealized potential. Harper is exciting and desirable. But he is going to get expensive quick and won’t sign a long term deal and Boras will be sure to get TWO big FA deals out of Harper’s career. That stuff absolutely brings down his “value”.

I don’t think you’re a homer. I just think we’re talking about different variables. I’m not discounting Harper. I am saying that these variables bring down his trade value. Not so much his SHORT term value, but his LONG term value takes a huge hit.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
1 year 10 months ago

Honestly, how expensive is Harper going to get? His counting stats are not really that high. Arbitrators don’t really take how many covers of SI you were on at 16 or your BA prospect ranking into account.

AK7007
Member
AK7007
1 year 10 months ago

Matt, that’s just the problem. Empirical evidence in this case just means that you decided from your couch that a guy is injury prone due to play style. Which is another way of saying unlucky. If Harper “looked” different when he played, then we would say that those were freak injuries. I get it, humans have difficulty accepting that individual events (Harper’s injuries) are not directly attributable to some flaw that he has as a player.

While from a dictionary sense, you are right and Harper has not yet realized his potential (hence unrealized) – I do believe in a base balling sense, most people actually mean “missed potential” as in, they never achieved their full potential when they say unrealized. So, I apologize for misinterpreting since you have clarified that you mean it in the dictionary sense.

I don’t think we are looking at different variables though, I think that we see the relative trade value of other players in the league at different levels. Harper’s value is hurt by those things, but not enough to drop out of the highest ranks.

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 10 months ago

No AK, I decided from 23 years of baseball experience including 7 years as a catcher in the Independent League that his style of play is conducive to injuries. Just like every credible analyst and those involved in the industry have. When he crashes face first into a wall to make a great catch instead of backing off and not crashing into the wall (and probably NOT making the great catch), that is indicative of his style of play. This is not a flaw. I like him more for his all-out style of play. If I’m running a team, I want that passion and effort and see it as a strength. But we can’t be naïve and pretend that it doesn’t put him at a higher risk for injury because it most certainly does.

I hear what you’re saying. I don’t think that top 10 to 15 is dropping out of the very highest ranks though. I still think that he is easily one of the very most valuable players in the game.

And yes, I meant the literal sense of unrealized.

emdash
Guest
emdash
1 year 10 months ago

As one could tell by watching his injury in LA last year, and as Harper said himself, he didn’t crash into the wall to make a great catch – he was inexperienced at playing right and misjudged how far he was from the wall in a stadium he’d never played in before. That’s not a reckless style of play thing, it’s just an accident.

Paul Wilson
Guest
Paul Wilson
1 year 10 months ago

AK7007: Nationals homer

Hmmbug
Member
Hmmbug
1 year 10 months ago

Amaro?

RMR
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

I imagine Josh Donaldson will be on the list this year, considering he’s on pace for a 2nd 7 WAR season and has a whole lot of team control left.

I could also see Billy Hamilton sneaking on.

jmsdean477
Member
jmsdean477
1 year 10 months ago

Should be top 5 with 4 years thru age 32 I believe controlled for Arb numbers…

Brendan
Guest
Brendan
1 year 10 months ago

I complained about donaldson’s absence last year! (also seager, though he doesn’t seem as sure to make this year’s list). Even at this time last year, donaldson had already been excellent at low cost for about a calendar year.

Brendan
Guest
Brendan
1 year 10 months ago

I wouldn’t touch Chris Davis right now, so I’d be surprised if he’s still on the list.

Zach
Guest
Zach
1 year 10 months ago

Spoiler: No one is going to come close to Trout.

Abreu is no Puig, but I would think he should be ranked pretty aggressively. Very team friendly, should have 2-3 more prime years and hasn’t really had a long slump despite more than enough data on him by now.

Really looking forward to the article!

Mike
Guest
Mike
1 year 10 months ago

The thing about Abreu is that he still hits home runs while he’s slumping… just not much else. When he’s hot, he hits EVERYTHING.

JJ
Guest
JJ
1 year 10 months ago

After Rizzo’s breakout this year his contract looks even more like a steal

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 10 months ago

I would think top 10 to 12 for Rizzo.

Kris
Guest
Kris
1 year 10 months ago

Matt Moore 30th immediately jumps off the page. As do the two aggressively ranked prospects who have both endured injuries this year. Stanton to top 5?

I do wonder how much a calendar year will effect the rankings though.

Steven
Guest
Steven
1 year 10 months ago

I have a hard time believing Stanton isn’t number 2. He’s the second best player in baseball with 2 Arb years left.

Steven
Guest
Steven
1 year 10 months ago

He’s not the second best player in baseball.

Kris
Guest
Kris
1 year 10 months ago

Steven having second thoughts 6 minutes later?

Kris
Guest
Kris
1 year 10 months ago

It could be two different Stevens.

Kris
Guest
Kris
1 year 10 months ago

I doubt that.

Kris
Guest
Kris
1 year 10 months ago

No I don’t

geo
Guest
geo
1 year 10 months ago

Stanton may or may not be the second best player in baseball, but the list isn’t “the best 50 players in baseball,” it’s “top 50 players by trade value.” Those are two different things.

Jim Price
Guest
Jim Price
1 year 10 months ago

Tulo is 2nd best player AND long-term contract at a reasonable (not franchise killing) figure. I’d put him #2.

Andrew McCutchen
Guest
Andrew McCutchen
1 year 10 months ago

I’m decent.

Brian
Guest
Brian
1 year 10 months ago

Trout’s contract makes it so he should make up the entire top 5 by himself.

Mike Matheny
Guest
Mike Matheny
1 year 10 months ago

Do NOT put any more of our guys on the list!

@BestFans
Guest
@BestFans
1 year 10 months ago

Please do, Dave. Please do.

Pale Hose
Guest
Pale Hose
1 year 10 months ago

I don’t see the need to leave pitchers out of the top 10. Even if it makes sense in theory, it doesn’t appear to work that way in practice. Based on the return for Samardzija/Hammel, I would think Chris Sale is top 10 trade value.

jbuffn
Member
jbuffn
1 year 10 months ago

I agree, if a pitcher is going to make a run at the top 10 it has to be Sale. Youngest pitcher in the top 20 for last calendar year WAR, besides Bumgarner, with an absolute steal of a contract (~$9m per year till 2017 plus 2 options?!).

As a member of the Society, I’d love to see Kluber up there too, but no current team control past 2014 puts a damper on things and assuming health he is about to get PAID. Pretty much all of the other young studs that could make big jumps have the same issue – Cole, Ross, Porcello and even guys like Alvarez (not even that good anyway IMO) Gray, and Keuchel. Well not to imply they will all get money like the venerated Kluber, but the lack of existing team friendly or simply cost controlled contracts makes them a lot less valuable.

A few other pitchers I’d look to see ranked aggressively (even if not in the top 50, but just relative to other pitchers being mentioned here) are the aforementioned Quintana, Chris Archer, and Zack Wheeler.

Marco
Guest
Marco
1 year 10 months ago

Kluber has 4 more years of team control.
Even discounting heavily for injury risk he’s immensely valuable.

jbuffn
Member
jbuffn
1 year 10 months ago

My mistake, fooled by the contract info on his FG page. Seems like I might have been wrong about a lot of those guys contracts then, oops.

Dylan Bundy
Guest
Dylan Bundy
1 year 10 months ago

Prediction: I’ll make it this year.

Ted Bundy
Guest
Ted Bundy
1 year 10 months ago

Prediction: I will not.

Al Bundy
Guest
Al Bundy
1 year 10 months ago

I scored four touchdowns in a game one time! So I might be.

Chris
Guest
Chris
1 year 10 months ago

Interesting that Samardzija was ahead of Price last year, but the price for Price (pun not intended but unavoidable) seems to be higher this year – if the information about the A’s/Rays trade talks are accurate.

Henrietta
Guest
Henrietta
1 year 10 months ago

Of course the “price for Price” was Friedman’s when he turned down the A’s; we’ll see if he can do better than Russell on the market.

(Looking at BA’s midseason top 50, it seems unlikely he’ll get a top 10 unless Cleveland thinks they want to part with Lindor or the Orioles decide to move Bundy in-division for a shot this year. Could pull multiple T50s from the Royals, Dodgers, or Jays, but I’m not sure such a package would be substantially better than what the Cubs got.)

nickolai
Guest
nickolai
1 year 10 months ago

I wonder how Cameron will treat youngish stud pitchers making close to league-minimum with strong 1st halves. Guys like Garrett Richards, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber, Henderson Alvarez…the performance, youth and team control obviously have a ton of value, but as he notes any pitcher could be a step away from exploding their elbows.

wobatus
Guest
wobatus
1 year 10 months ago

No way Henderson Alvarez is under consideration I’d think.

KCDaveInLA
Guest
KCDaveInLA
1 year 10 months ago

I would think Sal Perez would make a HUGE jump. Wouldn’t Jose Fernandez make your top 10 if not for Tommy John surgery? Might you put him there anyway?

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 10 months ago

Well, he swore that he wouldn’t, so I would guess not!

rustydude
Member
rustydude
1 year 10 months ago

You meant, Matt Harvey, right?

Tim
Guest
Tim
1 year 10 months ago

To follow up on the article posted earlier: Quintana has to be on it what with being a good, young pitcher on a very team friendly contract, right?

grant
Guest
grant
1 year 10 months ago

Most of the obvious drops are injury related – even Yadi, somewhat. But, wow, shocking to see Allen Craig made this list a year ago, now the Cards would probably have to eat money to move him.

AK7007
Member
AK7007
1 year 10 months ago

I think that mostly shows how quickly value can be accrued or tanked. Might not be 100% rational, but I’m willing to believe the MLB market moves pretty rapidly.

EWK
Guest
EWK
1 year 10 months ago

Jonathan Lucroy has got to be making a big debut on this list, yes? Under control until 2017 for next to nothing!

Brendan
Guest
Brendan
1 year 10 months ago

has to be there. 11 WAR over the past 2.5 seasons

Alex Poterack
Guest
Alex Poterack
1 year 10 months ago

Yes, this. Arguably the best catcher in the game, dirt cheap contract. He’s my pick for highest ranked guy who wasn’t on the list last year.

BurlGrimes
Guest
BurlGrimes
1 year 10 months ago

Don’t be surprised if he’s not. Dave’s never been a fan of the Brewers.

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

The words “biased prick” come to mind.

Sparkles Peterson
Guest
Sparkles Peterson
1 year 10 months ago

Just how valuable can a guy be when he’s one contact with a stray peanut away from the hospital?

dirck
Guest
dirck
1 year 10 months ago

My outfield in a 16 team dynasty league both this year and last is Harper,McCutchen,and Trout . I didn’t win it last year and currently am sitting sixth .Injuries,especially to my pitching,have killed me both years .

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 10 months ago

I think you know deep down that no one cares about your fantasy team.

Professor Walter T. Emmerhoft
Guest
Professor Walter T. Emmerhoft
1 year 10 months ago

That is quite the predicament in which you have found yourself, my dear friend. I recall a similar experience whilst traveling in the far-flung lands of the African continent, observing wild beasts in their natural habitat and hunting them for sport. My dear friend Mr. Herbert S. Hamilton had the most unfortunate run-in with a horned creature we were pursuing, who turned the pursuit back on us. It was quite the spot! I, most fortunately, was able to dodge the animal’s charge, but dear Herbert had not such luck. To speak of injuries is to not understand the man’s state, which was one of great disrepair. Fortunately a local doctor possessed great skill and resolved the situation with haste and deep compassion. But: Herbert no longer participates in these affairs, ho ho!

hscer
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

I regret that I have but one thumbs up to give to this post.

Mr. Herbert S. Hamilton
Guest
Mr. Herbert S. Hamilton
1 year 10 months ago

As my most grandiloquent colleague Professor Walter T. Emmerhoft has just related, I do indeed no longer participate in such safari tomfoolery since my unfortunate meeting with a great wildebeest! However, my injurious experience pales in comparison to the many and various tragedies you have endured with the burdensome demands of managing a fantasy baseball team causing you to perish in consecutive years.

Pat
Guest
Pat
1 year 10 months ago

Neat

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
1 year 10 months ago

I like the contrast between Professor Walter T. Emmerhoft’s comment and Pat’s comment.

Double J
Guest
Double J
1 year 10 months ago

Guessing Gregory Polanco and George Springer gets on the list. Maybe Singleton?

MDL
Member
MDL
1 year 10 months ago

Can you imagine if Springer/Polanco had accepted the long-term contracts before they were called up?

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 10 months ago

I imagine that if the new list were published at the start of this season, Andrelton Simmons would feature somewhere near the middle. But with his offensive flaws being exposed to a greater degree and the defense tailing off from the divine bar he’s set for himself, he’s probably a near miss at this point.

Even with a year of control ticking off, I would think Tulowitzki should make the top 10.

Mike
Guest
Mike
1 year 10 months ago

While I agree that his still excellent defense has taken a step back this season I don’t see how he has necessarily been exposed. He largely remains the same hitter he was last year. An aggressive high contact player who won’t take many walks and has a less than desirable batted ball profile. He hasn’t taken a step backwards, but many Braves fans are now revising their expectations about what his ceiling as a hitter may be.

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 10 months ago

Same hitter, but with substantially less power. Whether that reflects an actual change in the underlying performance is questionable, but it certainly represents an unwelcome drop off in his results.

Dude
Guest
Dude
1 year 10 months ago

I’m hoping he can be a little more patient at the plate. Guys that can’t draw walks really have to work hard to produce.

vslyke
Member
1 year 10 months ago

His fly ball distance is up and he’s cut down on the amount of infield fly balls. Once he starts finding the seats, he’ll be a much better offensive weapon.

jcxy
Guest
jcxy
1 year 10 months ago

There is probably enough for both sides to re-litigate the merits/timing/size of the Simmons extension, which will be fun. Recall, in heaping praise on the deal Dave did note that “Simmons will still get 26% more [guaranteed $] than Goldschmidt for the same period of his career” which is the kind of thing that might seem out of place for someone currently posting Christian Guzman’s career wOBA.

The thing is, though, even if we acknowledge the post-peakness of Simmons defense and failure to develop much at the plate…he’s a still-developing 24 year old SS on pace for a 3 WAR season–disappointing, but within the range of possible outcomes. In short, he’s likely to end up in the mid 20s or 30s.

Ja4ed
Member
Ja4ed
1 year 10 months ago

Starlin Castro should make his way back onto the list somewhere. After a terrible year last year (and a deserved omission from last year’s list), he looks back on track to be the 3-4 win SS that he was expected to be. Signed through 2020 for about $9mil AAV. Huge value.

War2d2
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

I should have read this before posting the same basic thing, only without the actual numbers.

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles
1 year 10 months ago

Marte signed that very cheap extension, but I imagine Polanco leaps ahead of him. I’m curious if Marte remains despite his warts.

TKay
Guest
TKay
1 year 10 months ago

Starling Marte has to stay on this list. He’s a 3 win player with such a friendly contract. Interested to see if Cole makes it.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

There are lot’s of 3 win players. Marte is gone.

Detroit Michael
Guest
Detroit Michael
1 year 10 months ago

Was Manny Machado ranked too high last year? He had a 36% BABIP in the first half last year and much of his value was in superb fielding even though we know we need a lot larger sample size than half a season for advance fielding metrics to stabilize. Perhaps we should have regressed our evaluation to the mean a bit more, while still giving him credit for his young age.

GMH
Guest
GMH
1 year 10 months ago

Machado is 22, his defense passes the eye test, and most teams would have him playing his natural position, shortstop, which would make him an even more valuable player.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 10 months ago

He also has a career wRC+ of 100. He’s a valuable piece, and he’s got huge potential, but he’s nowhere near the third most trade-valuable player in baseball.

lesmash
Member
Member
lesmash
1 year 10 months ago

Agree 100% here; Machado was wayyyy too high last year. I don’t see his bat as truly being a difference-maker, but more of a complimentary one. I would have him in the 25-30 range, perhaps, so due for a big drop.

Detroit Michael
Guest
Detroit Michael
1 year 10 months ago

Fun to see Shark a few spots ahead of David Price on last year’s list. Wonder which will rank higher this season.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

Price. Shark’s nice, but if you want a true ace, get the H out of here with the Shark nonsense.

Trunky
Guest
Trunky
1 year 10 months ago

Effing Quintana.

Ed R
Guest
Ed R
1 year 10 months ago

Creep can roll, man.

Joe
Guest
Joe
1 year 10 months ago

This list wasn’t meant to have predictive value, just present trade value. It’s a reflection of what teams believe whether right or wrong.

War2d2
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

I’d have to think Starlin Castro makes it into the top 50 after getting back to normal, right?

Radivel
Guest
Radivel
1 year 10 months ago

Tulo is on a team friendly extension forever. I’d put him in the top five.

cnote66
Member
cnote66
1 year 10 months ago

I have to think he moves to #2…

ErnestoSalvaderi
Member
ErnestoSalvaderi
1 year 10 months ago

Carlos Gomez even with only 2 and half years of team control left seems like a no doubt top 10er to me.

ErnestoSalvaderi
Member
ErnestoSalvaderi
1 year 10 months ago

He was once traded for JJ Hardy.
That’s funny right there…I don’t care who you are, if you don’t think that’s funny, you can get the hell out of here.

Steven (The Other One)
Guest
Steven (The Other One)
1 year 10 months ago

True, although Hardy has been a 3+ WAR shortstop ever since then.

ErnestoSalvaderi
Member
ErnestoSalvaderi
1 year 10 months ago

Pretty sure a 28yr old .280-30-100 CF with an AAV of 15 mil through 2018 should make the list also.

Jacob Jackson
Guest
1 year 10 months ago

Interesting that last year’s list had zero A’s, and this year’s might have…a league-leading 5?

Donaldson, Gray, Shark for sure…and Cespedes, Moss, Norris, Doolittle, and Kazmir would all probably make a top 100-120 list.

James
Guest
James
1 year 10 months ago

I’m guessing trout moves up a couple starts.

BenRevereDoesSteroids
Guest
BenRevereDoesSteroids
1 year 10 months ago

Bruce Chen should crack the top 15 tbh.

Brett W
Guest
Brett W
1 year 10 months ago

Kris Bryant?

TKay
Guest
TKay
1 year 10 months ago

Alex Gordon has $25M-$35M of excess value with his contract. Should be top 50.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

Alex Gordon is a nice contract. But at 2 years, 25mil, he’s not as nice as a lot of other guys. His defensive numbers are wack this year. He’s not as good as what WAR says he is.

TKay
Guest
TKay
1 year 10 months ago

Todd Frazier belongs.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

Not even close. He’s only 4 months younger than Longo, and will be making more than him this time next year.

tct
Guest
tct
1 year 10 months ago

I don’t know if Frazier belongs in the top 50, but if Donaldson is in it then you could make a good case for Frazier. They are so similar it’s almost creepy. Both supplemental 1st round picks in 2007. Donaldson is 2 months older. Both broke in the bigs in 2012. They are the two best third baseman in the league this year and their WAR is exactly the same. Donaldson has about 1 WAR more for their careers. Donaldson has been an elite player for about a year and a half now, while Frazier was just above average until this year, but still I feel like Donaldson gets a lot more love

indyralph
Member
Member
indyralph
1 year 10 months ago

Career, Josh Donaldson has 20% more WAR in 20% fewer games. It’s not close.

Pat
Guest
Pat
1 year 10 months ago

Polanco should be in and Marte out, even though Marte is under a cheap contract, I don’t really see impact potential with him.

Also, I will be very upset if Ryan Howard is snubbed, along with Alex Rodriguez.

Boris Chinchilla
Guest
Boris Chinchilla
1 year 10 months ago

Bobby Bonilla’s contract with the Mets is UNTOUCHABLE

Jason
Guest
Jason
1 year 10 months ago

You guys think Goldy moves up to top 5? His elite production has been established for a longer period of time, and he’s still signed to a cheaper deal than virtually all the other stars in the majors.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

YES!!! Could be number 1. A Rays fan here, saying it would be hard to pass up on a Goldy for Longo swap, and Lomgo is a 6 win player signed to a 10/100 contract.

I’d still rather have Longo, BUT THAT CONTRACT!!!

lesmash
Member
Member
lesmash
1 year 10 months ago

My guess is you are in the minority if you’d prefer Longoria to Goldschmidt. Longo’s bat is not comparable, and it is easier to find defense than it is a stud bat like Goldschmidt’s.

Sean C
Guest
Sean C
1 year 10 months ago

He said *Insert player other than Mike Trout* could be number 1.

Null and void.

Kris Bryant
Guest
Kris Bryant
1 year 10 months ago

Got room for one more?

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

Nope. Not until you come in at 32 in Dave’s annual rankings.

hittfamily
Guest
hittfamily
1 year 10 months ago

Chris Archer at 6 years, 25.5 mil +2 option years sure looks like he’ll take someone’s spot. Ace in the making? It sure looks like it!

I have questions about Trout being #1 though this time around. He’s far and away the best player in baseball, but at 6 years, 150 mil, that prices out a third of the teams. Even with Longo having a down year, 10 years, 100 million is 140 million less than Cano, and Longoria is the superior player.

Given the choice of taking on Longo at 10/100, or Trout at 6/144, I’d think a lot of teams would go for the inferior player in Longo.

lesmash
Member
Member
lesmash
1 year 10 months ago

No freaking way do teams take Longoria over Trout, even considering the financials. Longoria is nearly 29 y.o. and you have to be considered about how he will age having played his whole career on turf. I’m sure I am in the minority here, but I believe that Longoria is not going to age particularly well.

Grant
Guest
Grant
1 year 10 months ago

Any team would take that contract given his production.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 10 months ago

Maybe Im crazy but aside from being 5 years younger Trout is only marginally better than McCutchen and McCutchen is on an absolute bargain contract through 2018. McCutchen number 1?

Nick
Guest
Nick
1 year 10 months ago

I don’t mean to be rude, but you are out of your mind. Trout has accrued two more wins than Cutch since 2011 despite playing over 100 fewer games and having ~600 fewer PAs. His wRC+ is 10 points better in that span, and new Trout has traded 10 points of average for 50 points of slugging by being more willing to K. He really is that much better than anyone else.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 10 months ago

This is about value though, not purely skills. In 2018, guaranteed money you can almost have McCutchen AND Troy Tulowitzki or one Mike Trout? If you really think that is an absolute no-brainer I have a bridge to sell you.

abc
Guest
abc
1 year 10 months ago

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say here. If you’re saying in 2018 you’d rather have a 31 year-old McCutchen and a 33 year-old Tulo than a 26 year-old Trout, then I agree with Nick, you’re insane. If you meant something else, my apologies.

atpkinesin
Guest
atpkinesin
1 year 10 months ago

mccutchen contract – ~4.5 years ~43 million
trout contract – ~6.5 years ~145 million

mccutchen oliver projection next 4.5 years – 28.1 fWAR (1.5M/WAR)
trout oliver projection next 4.5 years – 51.8 fWAR (2.8M/WAR)

so yeah, mccutchens contract gives you greater projected value per win, but trout is just such an outlier does it matter?

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 10 months ago

Trout was number 1 on this list last year because A) He is the best player in baseball and B) Because he had a bargain price tag for the next 4 years or so. B is no longer the case. McCutchen is probably the second or third best player in the game and has one of the most team friendly contracts. So yes, it matters because payrolls are a real thing. But I guess the question to ask is would the Angels trade trout straight up for McCutchen and the answer is no but I dont think the pirates would make the trade either for payroll reasons.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 10 months ago

More concisely anytime you can get two players to exceed the value of one player for less money it matters.

Wow
Guest
Wow
1 year 10 months ago

Puig has about $22 million left on his contract through 2018. Oliver suggests he’s a perennial five win player. That’s at least $100 million of surplus value.

QueenJean.
Guest
QueenJean.
1 year 10 months ago

Oliver had Kevin Kiermaier as a 5 win player prior to his debut this season. It turns out he hits a lot better than Oliver thought. He’s already top 20 on defensive runs saved, and it’s only in 160 PA. He passes the eye test too. I wonder if he makes the top 50.

asdf
Guest
asdf
1 year 10 months ago

You should’ve included Jonathan Lucroy at least on the upper half of the list.

This year, you should go with Brian Dozier, and probably Kole Calhoun?

AynRand'ssocialsecurity#
Guest
AynRand'ssocialsecurity#
1 year 10 months ago

Jose Altuve? Signed a 6 year 12 million dollar extension and is on pace to put up 6 WAR this year at age 24.

Why do white girls hang out in odds?
Guest
Why do white girls hang out in odds?
1 year 10 months ago

1. Trout
2. Tulo
3. Mccuthcen
4. Goldschimdt
5. Stanton
6. Harper
7. Puig
8. Salvador Perez
9, starling marte
10. Chris sale (until he breaks….)

Resolution
Guest
Resolution
1 year 10 months ago

because they can’t even.

hanna
Guest
hanna
1 year 10 months ago

The question if anyone will top trout was a joke, right? will injured players such as tanaka be affected in this list?

bpj
Guest
bpj
1 year 10 months ago

What should you have seen a year ago that proves you’re an idiot? How about a mirror?

Or maybe Nick Swisher really was worth $100 mil…

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