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Manny’s Clutch Hitting

Posted By David Appelman On March 20, 2007 @ 5:38 pm In Site News | 4 Comments

There’s an interesting thread going on over at Sons of Sam Horn that eventually delved into Manny Ramirez‘s clutch hitting abilities.

There’s currently a stat displayed on FanGraphs called “Clutch”. This Tangotiger invention is the difference between a player’s Win Probability Added and his OPS Wins once it has been Leverage adjusted. Simply put, it’s how well a player did in his actual environment (which includes close and late and runner on base situations) and how he would do in a context neutral environment.

So if we look at Manny Ramirez, he had a -1.36 Clutch last season, and over the past 5 years he has a -4.80 Clutch. His -1.36 last season was among the worst when looking at qualified batters. Needless to say, Clutch suggests he’s anything but a clutch batter.

To further reinforce the point let’s look at his high/medium/low leverage splits. A 1.70 or greater Leverage Index I considered “High” and a Leverage Index lower than .75 I considered “Low”. Anything in between was “Medium”

LI Level     OBP   SLG    OPS
High        .439  .536   .975
Medium      .449  .623  1.072
Low         .426  .649  1.075

The more important the situation, the worse Manny Ramirez does. His on base percentage stays pretty similar, but his slugging percentage takes a rather large hit as the situation becomes more important.

All in all, the numbers in any situation are pretty damn good, but he certainly didn’t elevate his game when the game was on the line.


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