Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 7/19/13

11:40
: We’ll get started in 15-20 minutes so get your prospect questions in now… lots to talk about with the trade deadline looming.

11:57
Comment From Woods
What will Oswaldo Arcia’s 2014 look like?

11:58
: I’m hoping he can hit around .270 with 15-20 homers… a very solid season…

11:58
Comment From Howie
What Rookie ball and Short Season prospects appear to be breaking out?

11:59
: We still have about a month and a half until I’m comfortable really commenting on that… still too small of a sample. Three really good or bad games can really mess with the stats and the same can be said for the display of tools.

11:59
Comment From James
If the Mets were to move Byrd or Buck, what type of prospects could they expect in return? Could they land a top 50 prospect for Murphy, Parnell, and/or Gee?

12:01
: You’re definitely not looking at a premium package for Byrd or Buck. With that group of players your proposed, you might get a low-end Top 50 for them and another player or two…depending how desperate a team is…

12:01
Comment From Tommy
Mike Olt has also been rumored to be part of a Garza trade. How concerning are the strikeout rates so far? Have the reported vision problems and corresponding correction made the poor numbers more excusible?

12:02
: They’re definitely concerning but I always considered him a future low average guy with some power and good defense.

12:02
Comment From Kevin
As a rule some evaluators seem to dismiss prospects that are too old for their level. But exceptions have to be made, correct. Where should have the Orioles have started Urrita? He hadn’t played in a year and a half. The fact that he is 26 and started in AA shouldn’t preclude him from being considered a prospect, should it?

12:03
: No it shouldn’t… you definitely have to considered the background of a player — like with Evan Gattis. The Orioles prospect should be a decent hitter but lack impact power and has zero defensive value.

12:04
Comment From Howie
Thanks for the chat. Any thoughts on the 2012 international signing class one year out?

12:04
: Nothing profound, other than to say that they are some intriguing players that bear watching.

12:04
Comment From Guest
How did you learn how to evaluate prospects?

12:05
: A combination of experience and asking a lot of questions… I’m extremely luck that some of the most talented minds in baseball are willing to take my call and answer my questions.

12:05
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
What kind of return would Joc Pederson fetch? Do you think he’ll be traded at the deadline?

12:07
Comment From Gregory
What do you think of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez? Potential to be a front-line starter or is he more of a mid-rotation type that teams are going to overpay?

12:07
: Typically you don’t look to fetch certain players for prospects — it’s the other way around. He’d be used as a part of a package to try and obtain someone like Bud Norris… I doubt they’d give him up for a rental… but you never know with the rumored package that chicago is getting for Garza…

12:07
: Oops…

12:08
: I’m just going off what other people have said about Gonzalez… I haven’t seen him myself, not even video…

12:08
Comment From Zach
No one ever asks about Zach Lee in these chats. He seems to be progressing nicely. What are your comps for him?

12:08
: I don’t know if I have a comp but he should be a solid mid-rotation starter.

12:08
Comment From LarryA
Obviously the futures game was an eye-opener for him, but how high can you see Alcantara rising for the cubs?

12:09
: A solid big league regular… with surprising pop for his size.

12:09
Comment From Guest
What source(s) provide the best information for you on particular players? i.e. in person looks, info from pro scouts, other…

12:11
: Depends what you’re looking for… I’m not a scout and I realize that. I’ve seen enough ball though that I can make informed opinions on players but I always try to talk to front office guys such as farm directors, scouting directors, scouts, etc…

12:11
Comment From JWR
The rumor is that Garza would go to Texas for Olt plus 1-2 young pitchers (CJ Edwards, Luke Jackson). Does that seem about right to you, value-wise, for Garza?

12:12
: If it’s Ramirez, Olt and Edwards, I’m a little surprised they’re giving up that much value for a rental. But he’s the cream of the crop. Bad time, in my opinion to deal Olt whose value is down — but people seem to be realizing just what kind of player he really is so I don’t know if it ever get super huge again…

12:12
Comment From Tommy
Since the futures game, I’ve been telling everyone I know about Eddie Butler’s stuff. Even random people at work. Is he really as good as what he showed in New York?

12:15
: I’ve gotten some mixed reviews… some like Keith Law see him as a potential lights-out top rotation guy (if I’m not misquoting Mr. Law)… I’m a little more cautious…

12:15
Comment From Shep
Long term Carlos Martinez-Reliever or Starter?

12:16
: Still saying reliever based on my gut.

12:16
Comment From Jim
What is Danny Salazar’s ceiling? #2? He throws hard and seems to have a good change but I’ve never seen his breaking ball

12:16
: When I saw him, I suggested future reliever.

12:16
: As a starter, No. 3 would be the top I could see if everything broke right.

12:17
Comment From Shep
Any Puig’s in this year’s International Draft?

12:17
: It’s free agency rather than a draft… and no, he’s unique.

12:17
Comment From Bruce
Both got promoted to AA at about the same time, between Baez and Lindor, who do you see making the majors first? and when?

12:17
: Lindor will be first, perhaps in 2014… but in the second half.

12:18
Comment From howling wolf
Max Muncy, Joey Gallo two 1B prospects with very different approaches at the plate. Will Muncy beat Gallo to the majors?

12:18
: He definitely has a more advanced approach and is the safer pick, but Gallo has the higher ceiling. Much higher.

12:19
Comment From Dakota
Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Slade Heathcott have all dropped in rankings. Recently this also happened to guys like Banuelos, Betances and others. Are Yankee prospects just overrated?

12:19
: They suffer from being mentioned more often in the mainstream media… so when they fail you really hear about it.

12:19
Comment From Rubby
Could you ever see Christian Vazquez developing the hit tool enough to be Boston’s starting catcher?

/td>
12:20
: Probably a future backup, but one that can play fairly often if needed.

12:20
Comment From Gregory
Do you think Aaron Hicks’ recent performance is indicative of a breakout 2nd half?

12:20
: The first half was always out of character so, yes, he should be much better in the second half.

12:20
Comment From JWR
Chances that Arismendy Alcantara ends up having a better career than Starlin Castro? What would you do with these two SS if you were running the Cubs?

12:21
: Anything is possible… And the regression by Castro is worrisome.

12:22
Comment From Joe
Matt Adams in a full season can hit ___ HRs with a ___ AVG?

12:22
: 15-20 homers, .280?

12:22
Comment From JoeyB
Obviously crazy hypothetical, but imagine for a minute if the Tigers offered Castellanos to the Yankees for Mariano, would the Yanks say no?

12:22
: Yes

12:22
Comment From Marcellus
If Rubby De La Rosa never exhausted his rookie eligibility and was still prospect eligible, would he rank in your top 100?

12:22
: Probably not.

12:22
Comment From Matt
Nick Castellanos = Nick Markakis?

12:23
: No, bad comp on the defensive side.

12:23
Comment From Dan
From the Cubs’ perspective, doesn’t Olt + Jackson or Edwards have to be in a Garza deal (if TEX wont include Perez)? Is Olt/Ramirez really enough? Much thanks.

12:24
: I’d rather have Rougned Odor or Luis Sardinas…. over Olt.

12:25
Comment From JWR
How important is it for you that you actually SEE a prospect with your own eyes?

12:26
: If I can talk to some people who know him/have seen him, then I’m comfortable with my contacts. But I always prefer to have seen someone. I just don’t have time to hit everyone…

12:26
Comment From Ty
Is Bubba Starling worthless? Can he pitch? Play for the Chiefs?

12:26
: He’s not worthless but the clock is ticking.

12:26
Comment From Jay
Pick one for the next 5 years starting today and considering information from fist half this year: Segura or Profar? Significant gap between the two?

12:27
: Profar has a higher ceiling in my opinion but Segura has a huge advantage in that he’s a better player right now.

12:27
Comment From Brendan
Do you see Neil Ramirez, of the Rangers, as a future starter or a late inning relief pitcher?

12:27
: Probably a reliever but I’m not steadfast in my opinion just yet.

12:27
Comment From Jon
Could a Lawrie/Stroman/Gose package get Chris Sale?

12:27
: Two guys down in value and one guy who might be a reliever? No.

12:28
Comment From Jason
Between the Twins, Mets, Astros & Cubs, which team do you expect will make the playoffs first?

12:28
: Tough one… Might be the Cubs, or the Mets.

12:28
Comment From Tim
What kind of package could the White Sox get from the Pirates if they packaged Rios and Ramirez and included a good amount of cash?

12:29
: Luis Heredia and a couple C level guys?

12:29
Comment From Matt
Hi Marc – thanks for the chat. Would love your opinion on two struggling prospects I have to make decisions on. Trevor Storey and David Dahl. Either still top 100 and what is your outlook on them?

12:30
: Dahl probably has a little more hope than Story, who’s been plain bad. Dahl’s value has been hurt by his maturity and injuries…

12:31
Comment From Hingle McKringleberry
Jose Iglesias…legit 10 year starting SS in Beantown or still hesitant on the bat?

12:31
: Still waiting for the regression, but he can be a solid big league regular… just not with star power.

12:31
Comment From bo bo
who was/is a bigger prospect in Texas: Chris Davis or Mike Olt?

12:32
: I was never big on either one, if I recall back to Chris Davis correctly. What he’s done to make adjustments is impressive.

12:32
Comment From Ernesto
Do we see Billy Hamilton in Cincy before September?

12:32
: Probably not.

12:32
Comment From howling wolf
Taylor Lindsey: does he have a future with LAA or could he be moving to another organization soon?

12:33
: He might be a decent second baseman in the majors but I’m not a huge fan.

12:34
Comment From JoeyB
Joc Pederson likeley to be moved?

12:34
: He doesn’t have a clear spot in the org but I would just give him away… he’s turning into a solid player.

12:34
Comment From Jon
What does Jose Iglesias’ future look like to you? Can we dismiss all of his offensive success by looking at his BABIP?

12:36
: If I had to guess, I’d say .270-.280 would be his batting average range with little pop and a whole lot of glove value.

12:36
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is Mike Olt Joe Crede?

12:36
: More pop.

12:36
Comment From steve souza
Am I a legitimate prospect yet

12:38
: You almost made my Nats Top 15 prospects list, but you need to stop striking out so much… But I’ve heard some decent things.

12:38
Comment From Jay
Two O’s prospects new to AA. Please share your thoughts about Eduardo Rodriguez and C. Walker. Thoughts on N. Delmonico would be a bonus! thanks

12:41
: Eduardo Rodriguez is a guy that I probably should have had on the Top 50 but didn’t… He has mid-rotation potential. Walker is a fringe guy. Delmonico has potential but he has to really rake to make up for a lack of defensive value.

12:41
Comment From Beating Krauts
Who would be better to hold onto for next year Wacha or Bundy?

12:41
: Long term it’s Bundy, but he’s probably not going to pitch in the majors in 2014.

12:42
Comment From zack
Zymborski proposed a Herrera, Hanson, heredia trade for cliff lee. Fair deal?

12:43
: The salary would be an issue, I’d think. The talent might match up, though,

12:43
Comment From Bart
What is the latest on Kolten Wong and what is his projected arrival in the big leagues?

12:43
: Matt Carpenter is in the way. September is probably the earliest you see him in St. Louis unless there is an injury. I’m thinking he’s trade bait.

12:44
Comment From Asking For a Friend
What do you think Chris Owings will look like as a Major League Ball player? I’ve heard statistical comps similar to Aaron Hill, but I feel like Owings strikes-out way more than Hill.

12:44
: I don’t know what he’ll look like. With that low on-base average we’ll rarely see him in the flesh.

12:44
Comment From Wally Canseco
C.J. Edwards at 155lbs seems little. How do you grade him out?

12:44
: Potential reliever.

12:45
Comment From 20longyears
Gregory Polanco is climbing prospect lists. In your opinion, just how good is he?

12:45
: A potential all-star…

12:45
Comment From John
So what makes Byron Buxton that much better of a prospect than Miguel Sano? I understand Buxton plays an up the middle position, but Sano’s bat projects better and he is closer to the majors, no?

12:46
: Sano projects for better power. But the hit tool favors Buxton. The outfielder is a potential five-tool talent while Sano has one really, really good (80) tool.

12:46
Comment From John
What’s wrong with Kaleb Cowart? Is his future less bright now because of his awful year?

12:46
: His value is down for sure.

12:47
Comment From Asking For a Friend
What are the chances that Fulty (Astros) can stick it out as a starter?

12:47
: 60-70%?

12:47
Comment From Nick
Who has the higher ceiling as a starter: Yordano Ventura or Rafael Montero?

12:47
: Ventura, but Montero is more likely to be a big league starter long term.

12:47
Comment From dynasty fan
Sonny Gray – top of the rotation starter or mid-rotation starter?

12:47
: Mid

12:48
Comment From Timothy
Have you seen Lucas Sims pitch? Thoughts?

12:48
: He was in the 51-75 range in the mid-season Top 50 prospects list. Could be a solid big league starter.

12:48
Comment From Gregory
Thoughts on Alfaro? Is he a catcher long-term and will he hit enough to make it through the minors?

12:48
: Should make it to the majors on the strength of his bat. Defense is questionable.

12:48
Comment From Timothy
Can Tommy La Stella hit enough to be a starting 2nd baseman?

12:49
: Probably not.

12:49
Comment From JH
Rosell Herrera has done nothing but rake all year. Why don’t we hear more abut him as a bigtime breakout guy? Seems like the bat should make him a borderline elite prospect even if everyone’s convinced he’ll need to move off SS. What am I missing?

12:49
: Because he’s repeating a level so people are skeptical.

12:50
Comment From Tom
What can you tell me about Kyle Zimmer’s aresnal? What are his best pitches?

12:50
: Fastball is his best pitch but he needs to have command of it to set up his other pitches.

12:50
Comment From Jason
Rank the Cubs’ “big four” prospects– Baez, Soler, Almora and Bryant.

12:51
: Three of them were on my recent Top 50 prospects list. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2013-mid-season-top-50-prospects/

12:51
Comment From JoeyB
Do you see Grant Green as a future long term piece for the A`s?

12:51
: Probably not. I get the impression the org doesn’t really have him in their plans.

12:52
Comment From dynasty fan
12:24
I’d rather have Rougned Odor or Luis Sardinas…. over Olt.

12:52
Comment From dynasty fan
Is that your way of saying Olt stinks?

12:53
: As I said, he’s been overrated but stinks is harsh. He’s a solid defensive player with power. Sardinas is a nifty glove guy with a line drive bat and some speed.

12:53
Comment From Joel
Is Gerrit Cole ever going to start striking people out?

12:54
: I think he could if he wanted too but that’s not his approach right now and he’s been successful at it, so no need to change just to please the fans…

12:54
Comment From Jon
Thanks for the chat, Marc. Can you name your preferred Red Sox prospect not named Xander? Thank you

12:55
: Jackie Bradley

12:55
Comment From Coveted
When you scout at games do you wear a funny hat and use binoculars?

12:55
: I wear a baseball cap. I have a bald head so I have to keep the sun off. I’m nothing if not practical.

12:55
Comment From The other Kyle
where can I find your updated Top 50?

12:56
: Check out the link above. Or google fangraphs mid-season top 50 prospects

12:56
Comment From zack
Trade idea: Jose Iglesias to the cardinals?

12:56
: Why would Boston want to trade him?

12:56
Comment From Dgco
Preseason prediction here had Carlos Sanchez as fantasy relevant by end of this season. HOw is that looking?

12:57
: Clearly, he wasn’t ready for AAA

12:57
Comment From Steven
When teams scout prospects, do their reports account for the potential for the player to make a pivotal adjustment like Chris Davis has or learn a new pitch if they’re a pitcher?

12:58
: Projection is usually a big component.

12:58
Comment From Guest
How is your last name pronounced Hugh-Let or Hugh-lay?

12:58
: Light Hewlett-Packard…. Hue-let

12:58
Comment From Tyrone Taylor
Am i a legit prospect in the Mil org?

12:59
: Absolutely, but improvements in 2013.

12:59
Comment From JWR
Do you find it easier to project hitters or pitchers? Why?

12:59
: For me, pitchers are easier…. With offensive players, you have to grade offense and defense and they tend not to be on the field nearly as much so you have to see more games to get a feel for them.

1:00
Comment From Ernesto
How do you usually first hear about a guy?

1:00
: Well, the draft. Or from front office guys when I ask for sleeper prospects I should keep an eye on…

1:02
: Sorry for the shorter chat but I have to go… air conditioner broke during the biggest heat wave of the year (feels like 107 today with the humidity)… and it’s my daughter’s third birthday tomorrow so lots to do… I’ll be in later on with some trade feedback if something breaks with the Rangers/Cubs.



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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


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Matt
Guest
Matt

I read a disturbing evaluation of Billy Hamilton and his bat the other day from a scout at the future’s game. Do you see him as a leadoff man or 8 or 9 hitter with plus defense?

sk
Guest
sk

Being the 9 hitter on the Reds would definitely be disturbing.

eddiegaedel
Member
eddiegaedel

if you’re playing for dusty baker you could bat leadoff and still have a #8 or #9 bat

Minute Maid
Guest
Minute Maid

He doesn’t have enough RBIs to be considered a major league prospect.

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Guest
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