Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 8/16/13

11:47
: We’ll get started in 10-15 mins so get your prospect/rookie questions in now…
12:03
Comment From Rick
who has more of an impact next year, springer or lindor?
12:04
: I’m going to go with Springer… if we’re talking about offensive impact. He’s going to have speed and power (but probably a low batting avg) while Lindor will provide most of his value on defense in the early going.
12:04
Comment From Mike
Robert Stephenson is making his first start in AA tonight. He looked great in his last start in the California League. Will you be watching tonight and how long until he could realistically be ready to pitch in the Majors in a rotation.
12:05
: If I have a chance, I’ll tune in to MiLB tv and watch some of it… I would imagine he probably needs 3-5 months in AA/AAA before he’s ready.
12:05
Comment From Jimbo
Mike Olt: Starting 3B for CHC next year? Called up this year?

12:06
: He’s already on the 40-man so I imagine they’ll want to get a look at him at the big league level but he has a lot of work to do before that bat is going to play.
12:06
Comment From Paul
Any chance that Buxton gets called up to AA before the season is over? Regardless, he goes to the AFL right? Can you see him getting a shot next September (2014)?
12:07
: I don’t know that it’s a foregone conclusion that he goes to the AFL… they might want him to rest after a very successful season. I don’t see much point in promoting him to AA at this point given his age… Let him end the season on a high note by succeeding in High-A and then, if he looks good in spring, challenge him with that promotion.
12:07
Comment From Yorkie
What is your take on a newly signed rookie struggling? Way too early to be concerned?
12:08
: If you mean a 2013 draft pick, results mean little to nothing. They’re getting used to pro ball and life on their own…
12:08
Comment From Paul
Why is no one talking about Robert Stephenson? Seems like a future ace
12:08
: I’ve been pumping him up for about the last 12 months… does that count?
12:09
Comment From Timmy H.
Do you think the Giants will decide to give someone like F. Peguero (or maybe even Pill?) everyday ABs in LF for the stretch run? Might as well find out what you’ve got once you’re out of it, no?
12:10
: I agree the Giants should run some younger guys out to either see what they have or perhaps pump up their trade value for the offseason. I’m not sure they have many MLB-ready prospects, though, with high ceilings. Most of those guys like Peguero and Pill are probably part-time guys.
12:10
Comment From Taylor
Tom Dobson for the jays has had a great start to the season. I don’t know enough about him is he projectable? What is his upside? Has it changed since he was drafted?
12:11
: Tom Robson is a Canadian hurler that has a strong frame (6’4” 220, if my memory is correct) but his ceiling is more of a 4/5 starter or reliever than impact starter. He succeeds with a good offspeed pitch, above-average command/control but a fringe-fastball at 87-90 mph.
12:11
Comment From RotoLando
Hi Makr. Are you prepared for a whole lot of Wong puns?
12:11
: I like puns
12:12
Comment From Eminor3rd
Marcus Semien has had a breakout season, but most writers are very skeptical to change initial assessments of his ceiling. Is this simply a wariness to draw conclusions from a single year of datam or is their something inherent to his approach or skillset that suggests his success won’t translate to the Majors?
12:12
: I think it makes sense to approach projections for a prospect with some caution when the player is having his first season of true success… without being a formerly high-rated guy.
12:12
Comment From Shari Lewis
Jake Lamb is currently slashing 298/436/565 with a wRC+ of 160 in high A ball. What is his pro potential and ETA? Why isn’t he showing up on top prospect lists?
12:14
: Scroll down to Arizona and you’ll see that I wrote about Lamb as the potential sleeper prospect in the system in late March. The org was really a big fan of his after his pro debut in 2012. He’s definitely seeing his prospect status rise but remember the league he’s playing in tends to inflate offensive numbers.
12:15
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Kaleb Cowart from the Angels?
12:15
: He’s had a really bad season in just about every category…
12:15
Comment From ct tiger?
what do you think of danny duffy, can he help KC in their playoff push?
12:15
: If his stuff is back to where it was pre-injury then, yes, he can very much help them.
12:15
Comment From Tim L.
Corey Seager’s has played the majority of his games at SS so far. What are the odds that he stays there and doesn’t shift over to 3B?
12:17
: Odds aren’t great that he stays there long term, but he can probably gut it out for a few more years. Really depends where the opening is when he’s ready for the majors… If you have someone like a Hanley Ramirez there when he’s ready then you probably move the rookie. If you have a Nick Punto then you probably push the rookie in.
12:17
Comment From ct tiger?
if you are the tigers, do you bring up castellanos and play him everyday over the dirks/tuiososopo platoon?
12:18
: He’s back to hitting better after a terrible July so I might wait until the end of August and then bring him up.
12:18
: I think he can definitely help late in the year, even if it’s just the rest the regulars at 3B and LF/RF
12:18
Comment From Andrew
What do you think we can expect from Corey Dickerson going forward? Is Kyle Parker the better fantasy player long-term? Thanks.
12:19
: I’ve never been a huge Parker fan and I prefer Dickerson but I don’t know either will hold down a regular corner outfield job in the majors.
12:19
Comment From Jeff
Kevin Pillar… Legit prospect? Or someone with good numbers in minors that likely won’t translate to majors?
12:21
: My opinion hasn’t changed. A lot of people in baseball have told me he’s a grinder type that gets the most out of his modest abilities… and that he lacks any true plus tool. The hit tool is his best skill with his power being average. His speed and defense are both average-ish… I like to use the Reed Johnson comp
12:21
Comment From Josh
What do you think was the reasoning behind Austin Hedges’ promotion? Was it because his receiving and game calling skills are so advanced that they wanted to get him work with more advanced pitchers? Or could it be that the Padres aren’t sure what kind of player Grandal will be and they want him ready when Hundley’s contract is up?
12:22
: Maybe to see how much of his offensive production was a result of the Cal League? Or maybe to get him more experience catching better pitchers?
12:22
Comment From gregory
How bad would Javy Baez be as a defensive SS? Based on reports he’s getting a bit better and he’s made a few nice plays lately – better/worse than Asdrubal Cabrera?
12:23
: He needs a fair bit of polish. I don’t think he’d been an outright disaster but it would definitely take away from any offense that he might provide. I’d actually be more concerned at this point that his bat’s not ready for the majors. Hitting home runs isn’t everything.
12:23
Comment From Bird
Sonny Gray
12:23
: Peter Parker
12:23
Comment From Bart
Thoughts on Kolton Wong? What is potential tier level in the bigs?
12:24
: Most of his skills are average (power is below average) with an above-average hit tool.
12:24
Comment From goopa
Look at Springer’s stats. George Springer are better than Byron Buxton. Why he can not be No.1 prospect in baseball?
12:25
: It’s easy to love Springer if you cherry pick the stats you’re looking at. Springer has a higher strikeout rate and is 3-4 years older. Not to mention you can’t judge prospects on stats alone….
12:26
Comment From Andrew
Who is more likely to secure a closer spot next year – Bruce Rondon or Daniel Webb? Thanks.
12:27
: I would have to say Rondon because he’s actually pitched in the majors but I would imagine the Sox would be more open to a rookie pitching in those high-leverage situations for them. Plus, this is really Webb’s first season of success and his control still has a long way to go.
12:28
Comment From Roger
Who would you rather have for 5×5 dynasty, Michael Choice or Joc Pederson?
12:28
: Pederson
12:28
Comment From Josh
What Angel prospects catch your eye as guys to watch?
12:29
: Hunter Green, Taylor Lindsey, Eric Stamets, and Jose Rondon in no particular order.
12:29
Comment From Kerry Ligtenberg
How hard should I be going after Oscar Tavares? I’ve got a guy that would give him and Altuve to me straight up for Hanley.
12:30
: Really depends on your league and team setup… I’d hesitate to rely on Hanley long term because he’s such an enigma…
12:30
Comment From Woods
What’s your take on Allen Webster’s 2013 so far? Solid enough AAA numbers, but lack of control and got hit around in his major league outings.
12:31
: Pretty much what was expected to happen. He’ll be fine, I think, just needs to find some consistent with his mechanics, role, and settle into the majors in a low pressure environment.
12:31
Comment From Alex
Hey Marc, who is a high upside prospect who I can start rooting for before everyone else and feel good that I found a superstar when he was just a wee little lad?
12:33
: There are tons of guys. Rougned Odor? Renato Nunez? Luiz Gohara? Manuel Margot? Franklin Barreto? Tyrone Taylor? and on and on…
12:33
Comment From John
What do you expect from Kolten Wong in 2014? Any kind of comp?
12:33
: I expect him to be looking for a place to play…
12:33
Comment From Guest
With the way he’s adjusted to double A, the Twins couldn’t possibly keep Sano in the minors past super 2 next year, could they?
12:34
: He hasn’t improved THAT much lately… He’s on the upswing, yes, but he still isn’t exactly forcing their hands. With that said, he could be up in the second half of 2014.
12:34
Comment From Compton
Are you a fan of the Buccos making the Lambo leap?
12:35
: I don’t hate it, but I’m in the camp that believes he’s a future bench guy.
12:35
Comment From Andrew
Does Dan Vogelbach see the majors next year. Where does he fit with Rizzo holding down 1B? Thanks.
12:35
: I doubt he sees the majors next year. He doesn’t have a clear spot at the MLB level but I’m sure it’s a problem that Chicago will love having.
12:35
Comment From Yorkie
Henry Owens, what’s his ceiling?
12:35
: 2/3 starter.
12:36
Comment From Tim L.
Noah Syndergaard has pitched very well this year. Could he be in the same conversation as Archie Bradley and Taijuan Walker for Best Pitching Prospect next year?
12:36
: He needs a better breaking ball, still, to be in that conversation.
12:37
: I did.
12:37
Comment From Yorkie
Owens, Barnes, Ranuado? Rank them.
12:37
: Delay in software, the two posts are for that question… sorry.
12:37
Comment From Bart
In terms of talent and progression, how would you compare Gary Sanchez with d’Arnaud?
12:38
: Not really all that comparable other than both being New York catching prospects. Different career paths and different types of players.
12:38
Comment From Guest
Is Christian Bethancourt finally starting to show that, one day, he might be more then a “glove first” catcher?
12:40
: He’s repeating a level and still has poor on-base numbers so I’m still not buying the “big improvement”
12:40
Comment From gregory
Any thoughts on Josh Vitters? Still a prospect?
12:40
: That ship has sailed.
12:40
Comment From Kerry Ligtenberg
True or false: strictly in terms of age relative to level, Julio Urias has had the most impressive season in the minors this year.
12:40
: False. I’d still go with Buxton.
12:40
Comment From ian
what kind of ceiling do you see for the reds a ball trio of ervin, winker, and mejias-barean?
12:41
: Ervin probably has the highest ceiling, while Winker is the safest bet to reach the majors and have a solid but unspectacular career.
12:42
Comment From Andrew
Any AAA 1B that could secure a starting spot next year – Andy Wilkins, Hunter Morris, Ryan Wheeler?
12:42
: None of those names are overly exciting.
12:42
Comment From GSon
Austin Adams, currently in Columbus.. doesn’t get the hype, but has a helluvan arm.. Starter at the next level or does his size relegate him to the pen?
12:43
: He’s a reliever but could be a very good one if he can find the plate on a more consistent basis.
12:43
Comment From zack
Who do you like better longterm: eovaldi or turner?
12:43
: Neither really does much for me to be honest…
12:43
Comment From AA
Do you think Marcus Stroman is a top 100 prospect at this point after his performance this season so far orare there still too many size/durability concerns? If yes then where would he fit in? And what aboutOsuna?
12:45
: He’d have to be in the second half of the list for me given the durability/reliever concerns but I don’t know where — have really gone that deep with a list.
12:45
Comment From RotoLando
Have you seen anything different about Bubba Starling that would explain his recent success?
12:46
: No… and it’s a pretty small sample size to say he’s hitting better 10-14 games or so.
12:46
Comment From Patrick
Are Jesse Biddle’s control problems mechanically-related and are they fixable?
12:46
: Yes and yes.
12:46
Comment From Woods
If you were Boston, would you send Bogaerts, Bradley, and Webster for Stanton? If you were Miami, would you rather have a Bogaerts-led package, or a Profar-led one?
12:47
: Bogaerts is really the only name that I would hate to lose so yeah, I would.
12:47
Comment From Andrew
Is Mike Olt worth keeping over the winter? Thanks.
12:47
: Probably not.
12:47
Comment From Maxamuz
With the emergence of Wil Myers, do you think Lucas Duda can become a elite player in the coming years? I mean, he is the Main Event in NY
12:47
: I’m confused how Myers relates to Duda?
12:48
Comment From Jim
Javier Baez is killing LH pitching but hitting just above .200 against RH pitching. Do these splits concern you?
12:48
: There are an awful lot of right-handed pitchers in the majors…
12:49
: BTW I refuse to answer any question that has a reference to that guy in New York that should not be mentioned… and really shouldn’t be playing baseball right now.
12:49
Comment From John
Is Gausman going to be a rotation fixture next season?
12:50
: Hopefully at some point in the season he’ll settle in but it may not be in April.
12:50
Comment From Kyle
Odor or Salinas more likely to be a big leaguer/higher upside?
12:52
: Odor or Sardinas, I assume? I love both prospects but I’ll give the edge to Odor.
12:52
Comment From O Arcia
Hi everyone. I destroyed AA last year as a 21 year old, have a 315/426/594 triple slash in AAA this year, and a 262/319/449 slash in the majors. I’m 22. Why is everyone ignoring me?
12:52
: Doesn’t everyone just ignore the Twins in general?
12:52
: I agree though… Oswaldo is one of the best players that no one is talking about.
12:53
Comment From CJ
It’s looking more and more like the Braves may call up Tommy La Stella to play 2B while Uggla is out. What are your thoughts on him? Can he handle 2B at the MLB level?
12:54
: Good hit tool, modest power, below average defensive tool. He’s more of a platoon/part-time guy but no reason why he couldn’t get hot for a good stretch of time.
12:54
Comment From CubsFan
Do you think Javier Baez is No.1 prospect in the minors?
12:54
: No. Not close.
12:54
Comment From Alex
Who is the underrated prospect in the Astros farm system?
12:55
: Vincent Velazquez
12:55
Comment From Joe
Travis d’Arnaud is walking at a great clip so far at Triple A Las Vegas. He’s showing better plate discipline than he ever has. Is this a result of following the preaching of high OBP in the Mets organization or his he that much more comftoable in triple A? And also, at his best what is Travis d’Arnaud future
12:56
: You can’t really read much of anything in 50-100 at-bats. In the majors, d’Arnaud is probably an oft-injured above-average catcher who never really realizes his full potential because he’ll consistently struggle to play 100+ games a year.
12:57
Comment From Mark In Toronto
Have seen much of Aaron Sanchez?
12:57
: A decent amount… the injuries have me cautious about getting too excited right now…
12:57
Comment From Izzy
Syndergaard or Wheeler?
12:57
: Wheeler
12:57
Comment From DRS
Brad Miller has been extremely productive so far since being called up by the M’s. Can we expect him to improve his average going forward? My other question is will he stick at SS? Either way, the extra base hits seem really positive. He seems to fit that park, as well.
12:59
: His contact rate is OK and his BABIP is low so there is probably room for the average to increase but I doubt he’s going to be a perennial .300 hitter in the majors. As for defense, he can probably play there well enough to stick around for a bit, unless someone better comes along.
12:59
Comment From Arnie
Marc, do you think Bogaerts, T Walker and George Springer get called up in Sept and how do you expect them to do.
1:00
: In order of likelihood: Bogaerts, Springer, Walker… but we’ll probably only see one.
1:00
Comment From gregory
What’s Alcantara’s defensive potential like? His error totals are pretty high, but what are the tools like?
1:00
: He’s probably a long term 2B… a lot of his errors are more of the youthful variety, though.
1:00
Comment From Just A Guy
Will Josh Bell climb the prospect rankings next year? He used to be a pretty hyped guy before his knee injury. But it seems like everyone forgot about him and are ignoring that he is now healthy and putting up solid numbers.
1:01
: yeah, I think so… the missed time in 2012 seems to have really hurt him.
1:01
Comment From Bart
Does Avasail Garcia have the potential of being the everyday RF for the White Sox for years to come?
1:02
: He has a chance to be the everyday RF for Chicago but I don’t know that he’s going to be an impactful kind of player… more solid regular.
1:02
Comment From Felix
With his ankle surgery, Oscar Taveras’ chances of playing CF in the majors has gone from unlikely to nearly zero, right?
1:03
: You kind of have to wait and see how the injury rebounds before making a statement like that… maybe it’s been a long term, nagging thing and he comes back better than ever — not saying that’s the case but we really have no idea…
1:03
Comment From Kerry Ligtenberg
Is Jon Villar going to ever hit enough to matter?
1:03
: My long term opinion on him has always been, no. I think he has value as a big leaguer, but not as a regular.
1:03
Comment From Belts Belts
I know he is no longer a prospect, but have you watched Brandon Belt at all in the last couple weeks. He is really on a tear and I have read rumblings of mechanical changes. Wanted to know if you had noticed anything in his swing and when he peaks what will his slash line look like?
1:04
: I leave the Belt admiration to Keith Law… I haven’t seen Belt play in over a year.
1:04
Comment From John Stamos
Mookie Betts or Delino Deshields?
1:04
: The gap is narrowing and I’m becoming a big Betts fan.
1:04
Comment From DJ
Trayce Thompson: now in DOuble A – Ks have decreased nicely and walks have remained solid. But… ISO power is way down. What are your thoughts on his season? Is he still a potential starting big league CFer?
1:06
: His numbers in July and August have been BRUTAL. I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a regular big leaguer.
1:06
Comment From CMR
Hi Marc – Is Kolten Wong’s game advanced enough at this point to produce immediately in the majors?
1:06
: Yes
1:06
Comment From The Humber Games
Any hope we see Gary Sanchez in pinstripes next year?
1:07
: Depends on the needs of the big league club… They may want to go out and get a veteran guy for 2014.
1:07
Comment From LaLoosh
Plawecki a top ten C? top 5?
1:07
: Definitely among the top 10 catchers in the minors… it’s not a great list.
1:07
Comment From Just A Guy
Is Christian Yelich a CF long term? He spent a majority of his minor league career in center, but hasn’t seen an inning there in the majors.
1:08
: It really depends if they have someone better… Marisnick, although not as good of a hitter, is a better fielder in CF
1:08
Comment From The other Kyle
Any chance Daniel Fields develops into a #4 OF for the Tigers? Doesn’t really excel at any one skill, but path has opened up with trades of Garcia and Vazquez.
1:08
: He’s done a nice job of rebounding after being rushed badly. He has a chance to be a No. 4 guy, yes.
1:08
Comment From Guest
When was the last time a team graduated as many talented top prospects as the Cardinals have this year? (Miller, Adams, Rosenthal, Wacha, Martinez, Wong) (Siegrist and Maness have done good as well)
1:09
: It’s pretty rare and made all the more impressive by the fact that the Cards are in contention for a playoff spot… Although, I think the Marlins are up there with the Cards this year.
1:09
Comment From Guest
Christian Vazquez have enough to be future Red Sox catcher, or just a good defensive back up? Lavarnway or Butler shown enough?
1:10
: Probably a decent backup but I think he’s a little short as a regular.
1:10
Comment From Patrick
Who makes it to the Major Leagues first: Jesse Biddle or Adam Morgan? Which has the higher ceiling at this point in time?
1:10
: If healthy, probably Morgan.
1:10
: To reach the majors that is… as for ceiling, it’s pretty close.
1:11
Comment From The Oberamtmann
Are the Yankees just the worst ever at player development and health?
1:11
: No. But it’s been a disappointing year for the minor league system.
1:11
Comment From Mike
JBJ come up pre september 1 so Sox can have his defense in playoffs? useful bench piece
1:12
: Makes sense. Any injury will get him on the squad, though, even if he’s not up before Sept 1
1:12
Comment From Guest
Redraft 2011….Indians still taking Lindor over Baez?
1:12
: Yup
1:12
Comment From O Arcia
“You can’t judge prospects on stats alone….”. I’m 22 and killing it this year. No one is talking about me. Other than age and stats, what else do you look at, and why are those things suggesting I am not relevant?
1:13
: Projection based on body, mechanics, skill, etc. Oswaldo’s entire package looks impressive (no, not THAT package).
1:13
Comment From Guest
Would you rather have Kolton Wong or Nick Franklin next year?
1:14
: Hmm… tough question. Probably Franklin… he has a little more pop and can play SS in a pinch.
1:14
Comment From Dirck
When do you think A. Bradley,T.Walker and Gausman will be up to stay ?
1:14
: 2014 for all three but at varying times of the season.
1:14
Comment From Guest
Have you heard anything about L.B. Dantzler down in Vancouver? Great numbers, age appropriate. However, he doesn’t seem very athletic.
1:15
: He’s a college dude killing it in the low minors… He could be a solid minor league player but is a NP (non-prospect) at this point.
1:15
Comment From James
When the Cubs are good again which of their prospects will be the star?
1:15
: They have quite a few hitting prospects that could be stars… probably anyone in the Top 4-5 in their system.
1:15
Comment From The other Kyle
As a teen, did scouts rate Miggy’s hit and power tools as 80? Which current minor leaguer presents the closest comp to Cabrera in terms of elite combo of both tools?
1:17
: Scouts grade tools on future and present… no one would have given him an 80 present tool at that point and I doubt anyone would have given him an 80 future projection when he was a teen…
1:17
Comment From Kolton Wong
KOLLLLLLLLLLLTONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN WONNNNNNNNNNNNNNG! #KOLTONWONG
1:17
: I get the feeling there is some hype for Wong. Every other question in the queue is about him…
1:18
Comment From Tage
Who is your favorite young pitcher out of Salazar, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray. Who has the biggest upside?
1:18
: Salazar, Gray, Wood in that order. Wood is a reliever. Salazar has the highest ceiling but Gray is the safer guy.
1:19
Comment From Bill
What do you know about the upcoming draft class? Stronger than this year’s?
1:19
: I don’t have time to follow the amateur guys… too much on my plate keeping up with pros.
1:19
Comment From Guest
I’m intrigued by Eddie Rosario. Is Brian Dozier expendable enough that the Twins would be willing to bring Rosario up next July to play 2nd? The dude is a hitter.
1:19
: Dozier is a nice little player but he’s no roadblock for Rosario…
1:20
Comment From Pukie
Mookie Betts, Mookie Betts! Great name, or greatest name? Also, is he any good?
1:20
: My heart will forever belong to Mookie Wilson.
1:20
: And yeah, Betts can play.
1:21
Comment From TJD
Thoughts on Lucas Sims?
1:21
: A bright spot in the Braves system… I’m excited.
1:21
: And on that note, I have to go…
1:21
: As always, any unanswered questions can be spent to me via Twitter @marchulet
1:22
: And keep an eye out for a FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch later today (actually quite soon) looking at some guys in the Red Sox, White Sox and Pirates system.



Print This Post



Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


4 Responses to “Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 8/16/13”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Tom says:

    Anecdotally speaking, who’s the last guy you can think of that put up these sort of power numbers in the minors at the SS position like Baez is now?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Brian says:

    I know it wasn’t the intention, but this chat reads as though if you’ve had a good recent 1 to 2 months, it’s a small sample size that we shouldn’t read into (Travis d’Arnaud and Bubba Starling). But if you’ve had a bad recent 1 to 2 months, that’s enough to form a conclusion (Trayce Thompson). I wish we’d be a little more cosistent (JM’d) about this.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>