Comments on: Marco Scutaro Is Still a Game of Pepper

By: CJ

CJ — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 10:18:20 +0000

The metric you want here is RE24, I believe.

This year, Scutaro is at 9.92 runs, whereas “Batting Runs” has him at 2.4 context-neutral runs. If ~7.5 is the difference there, that seems large, but I can’t really conveniently sort by RE24-Batting Runs, so I can’t tell.

By: Kazinski

Kazinski — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 21:17:43 +0000

There is actually a slight negative correlation between wOBA and contact rate (-.22), that’s because there is a much stronger negative correlation between ISO and contact % (-.55), and also a small negative correlation between contact % and BB% (-.28).

High contact is can be a valuable skill set no doubt about it. But Scutaro is a case in point, he has great plate discipline and he doesn’t swing much in or out of the strike zone, but when he does he makes contact so he only walks 6%, and only strikes out 7% despite only having a 40% swing rate. Guys that make contact put the ball in play. And high contact hitters are not the type of hard swingers that hit the ball over the fences. The negative correlation between contact % and HR% is -.62.

By: baseballjunkie

baseballjunkie — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 14:22:13 +0000

Brian Sabean doesn’t get enough credit for what he has done as GM of the Giants. He is continuously trashed for being old school. Yet look how he remade the outfield over the winter and shored up the team during the year. Scutaro’s teammates nickname him “Blockbuster” because he meant more to the success of his team than the Dodger’s huge salary haul did for theirs. Nice jab at the Dodgers and a very apt nickname for Scutaro.

By: Hurtlockertwo

Hurtlockertwo — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 13:51:45 +0000

Scutero had a few very good years, 2008, 2009, so his success isn’t totally unexpected. I’m surprised, watching him every day, at how good his defense is at 36.

By: jcxy

jcxy — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 12:15:38 +0000

but are those things– for instance, scoring a runner from 3rd by making contact–a skill that the batter has control over or more distribution luck?

let’s assume that kind of ability skill (which is, at minimum, plausible), there is still a lot of “noise”. for instance, how much does game score matter (is a team more/less willing to try to score from 3rd on a medium sac fly at different points of the game)? how much does team defense factor into whether contact is successful (if OF arm components of UZR are correct, I’d happily run even paul konerko on josh hamilton, but probably wouldn’t take many chances against the cespedes, frenchy, etc?

could it be the stat he’s looking for is a mix of wOBA and WPA, weighted more towards WPA?

By: schmoe

schmoe — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 08:55:36 +0000

funny thing is they got Scutaro for what most Giant fans considered a marginal or non-prospect at this point in Charlie Culberson, so the Rockies must not have had too many serious offers for Scutaro at the trading deadline. I would have thought that some other playoff-bound teams might have been interested in that type of veteran player but i guess not.

By: Shane

Shane — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 04:08:01 +0000

When I think of a classic #2 hitter, another name I think of is Placido Polanco during his Detroit years. Seems similar to what Scutaro is giving San Francisco: a low strike out, low walk, contact machine.