Mark Teixeira and Still Not the End of the Yankees

Already without Alex Rodriguez for an extended period of time, the Yankees have been given a double-whammy of unfortunate injury news still early in camp. Curtis Granderson got one of his bones broken, and he will be missing for several weeks. Now Mark Teixeira‘s got one of his tendons bothered, and he will be missing for several weeks. For at least a little more than a month, the Yankees are going to have a lot of money and a lot of star power sitting helplessly on the disabled list. The Yankees still stand to contend in the American League East and the wild card race. Despite everything, now isn’t the time to abandon all hope. Nor is now the time to abandon all baseball hope as it pertains to the New York Yankees.

It would be easy to dismiss this as an argument that the Yankees are going to be okay because they’re the Yankees. Given how often the Yankees have wound up in the postseason, I understand the sentiment, but that isn’t the main point, here. The Yankees won’t be okay because they’re the Yankees — the Yankees look like they’ll be okay because they still have quality players, and neither Granderson nor Teixeira should be out all season long.

If we wanted, we could give this the Granderson treatment. Let’s begin with the premise that the Yankees were a potential playoff team. Relative to replacement, Teixeira is, what, a 3-win player? A 3.5-win player? Knock Teixeira out for a quarter of the season and replace him with some mediocre nobody worth nothing (relative to replacement). On average, that might cost the Yankees a win. Maybe less. A win doesn’t change the entire picture, as far as probability is concerned. Losing Teixeira hurts the Yankees, but it doesn’t devastate the Yankees.

That’s a perfectly adequate, concise analysis. You don’t really have to go more in depth, but I figured in this instance it couldn’t hurt. I thought it wouldn’t be a bad idea to review the particulars of the Yankees’ situation. Right now, the Yankees’ lineup projects to look something like:

C: Chris Stewart
1B: Dan Johnson
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Kevin Youkilis
LF: Juan Rivera
CF: Brett Gardner
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Travis Hafner

That shouldn’t be the Yankees’ full-season lineup, but let’s treat it as if it were to be the Yankees’ full-season lineup. How would that project, in terms of WAR? Please check your issues with WAR at the door; I’m just doing this for simplicity’s sake. WAR is good enough for our purposes, and here’s some quick and dirty estimation:

Position WAR
C 0.0
1B 0.0
2B 6.0
SS 2.5
3B 2.0
LF 0.0
CF 4.0
RF 1.0
DH 1.0
BENCH 0.0

Stewart, Johnson, Rivera — they’re just guys, and little more. While different players might end up at those positions, the math probably won’t change, barring a meaningful trade. Cano is the superstar of the bunch, but the Yankees will be pleased by Gardner’s return. You can quibble with all of the numbers if you want, but ultimately as a group this probably isn’t far off. The unit projects for a combined 16.5 WAR.

Let’s turn to the pitching staff, which remains largely unchanged from a year ago. There’s no more Freddy Garcia and there’s no more Rafael Soriano, but there is more Andy Pettitte and a lot more Mariano Rivera. Last season, the Yankees’ staff ranked tied for fourth in the AL in ERA-, fourth in FIP-, and tied for second in xFIP-. Another simple table:

Position WAR
SP 4.0
SP 3.0
SP 2.5
SP 1.5
SP 2.0
BULLPEN 6.0

CC Sabathia, again, is the ace, and Hiroki Kuroda is quite good. Pettitte’s fine, Phil Hughes is mostly fine, and Ivan Nova‘s 2012 numbers simultaneously discourage and encourage. The bullpen looks to be one of the league’s better bullpens, and, again, while you can quibble with the individual numbers, the group projection is 19 WAR. That should be more or less accurate.

Now put it all together. Over a full season, these Yankees would project for about 35.5 WAR, and last year the replacement level was set a little north of 43 wins. That would leave these Yankees projected for about a 79-83 record — not terrible, but certainly not up to Yankees standards. This version of the Yankees could end up in a battle to stay out of last.

But of course, these shouldn’t be the full-season Yankees. Go back to that first table and account for the eventual returns of Granderson, Teixeira, and Rodriguez. Over a full year, maybe Teixeira’s worth 3.5 wins. Over a full year, maybe Granderson’s worth 3.5 or 4 wins. Throw in a win or so for Rodriguez, since he isn’t a pile of crap. All of a sudden, that version of the full-season Yankees projects for about an 87-75 record. Much better, and good enough to contend.

Granderson and Teixeira should miss about a quarter of the season, based on current timetables. Some easy math: (79 * 0.25) + (87 * 0.75) = 85. Given injury woes, we should expect this year’s Yankees to end up somewhere around 85-77. Which, as you know, comes with enormous error bars, meaning the Yankees could conceivably finish last in the division or first in the league. But the average projection is that of a team that has plenty of hope of reaching October. That despite all the talent on the DL.

The Yankees have a strong pitching staff, a star at second base, a FanGraphs star in center field, and a popular star at shortstop. Even without the injured guys, they aren’t dreadful, and they just have to tread water until the injured guys come back. No team in the AL East projects to be dominant, so the Yankees shouldn’t drift too far out of the race. Their odds are the lowest they’ve been in some time, sure, but their odds remain reasonable, legitimate. They’re not that much worse than the Blue Jays, and the Jays are considered by many the favorites.

Granderson should have no problems returning from his injury at or around 100%. Teixeira’s a bigger concern. This is where there is room for skepticism, because Teixeira is a slugger with a wrist injury, and though the Yankees say no surgery ought to be needed, Jose Bautista had surgery last year for a similar problem. Sam Fuld had surgery for a similar problem. Here’s Stephania Bell writing about the injury when Bautista had it. We can’t automatically assume that Teixeira will come back and look like himself, so maybe this is worse than the numbers above suggest.

But Teixeira could also come back fine. And the Yankees could also look to make a trade, adding present WAR at the expense of future value. It’s not likely the Yankees could find real value right now on the waiver wire, but if they were willing to move a prospect or two, they could strengthen the current roster to make up for some of the conspicuous absences. That would, in turn, improve the Yankees’ projection, and that would, in turn, reduce the impact of these injuries.

The bottom line: the 2013 Yankees aren’t toast. They can’t withstand many more blows, and it’s only March 7, but even still, as things stand, they should be somewhere in the hunt. Baseball teams are about more than one or two or three players, and the Yankees still have enough talent to remain afloat while the injured talent heals.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Menthol
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Member
Menthol
3 years 4 months ago

Nah, they’re toast.

chongo
Guest
chongo
3 years 4 months ago

They were toast before they lost position players. Their pitching staff falls off a cliff after Sabathia, and in the AL East, only Boston can keep them out of last place. You heard it here first.

Summertime Man
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Summertime Man
3 years 4 months ago

Not a big fan of Kuroda? Or Pettitte? Or David Robertson and Mariano Rivera? How ’bout Madonna? No? Well then, sir, screw you.

Sleight of Hand Pro
Guest
Sleight of Hand Pro
3 years 4 months ago

i hear that everywhere on every site, and i still dont agree…. i think they’re 1 of the 2 wild card teams. plus we know money at the deadline for a rental wont be an issue.

jim
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jim
3 years 4 months ago

you clearly have interesting and advanced analytical techniques, i would be interested in seeing more of your work

Math
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Math
3 years 4 months ago

Zips projects the Blue Jays at around 45 war. 45-35.5=9.5. 9.5 war is a colossal difference. Sounds a lot like your argument is the Yankees are the Yankees so that accounts for at least 10 war. I agree this does not spell the end. Anything can happen. But objectively looking at the situation it does not look good. Yankees are projected to be mediocre to fringe contention at best now.

Reading
Guest
Reading
3 years 4 months ago

35.5 WAR is the using the opening day lineup for the entire season. It doesn’t include 4 months of Granderson and Teixeira.

Unrelated: I think Nunez is worth an extra win somewhere.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
3 years 4 months ago

ZiPS, Oliver and the fans have him worth ~ 1 WAR when averaged out, but Dan Johnson is also rated at ~ 1.5 WAR over a full season by ZiPS and Oliver, while Steamer has him worth 0.2 WAR in 100 PA’s, which if you extrapolate that data (sketchy at best, I know) is ~ 1 WAR over a full season.

Honestly, I think that Jeff sold the Yankees in house replacements short for the sake of making a point. I can see this team (should the stars return at full health) being worth 87-90 wins, but more realistically around 85-88. With Boston also reeling and relying on comebacks and aging veterans (who have their own injury concerns), and Baltimore making no really meaningful moves and their negative run differential last year, the AL East is still wide open.

We all saw how well the additions that the Marlins made last year worked for them, and the Blue Jays just took on a good portion of that team. While they have to be the favorites with the Rays shortly behind them (another team that made subtractions from their current team), there really is no telling who will walk away with the AL East or second WC.

David
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David
3 years 4 months ago

I’m tired of hearing these lazy comparisons between the Marlins 2011-2012 offseason and the Jays 2012-2013 offseason. One added Reyes, Buehrle and Bell, the other added Reyes, Buehrle, Cabrera, Johnson, Dickey and Bonifacio. Bonifacio is a relatively minor piece but is likely to be more valuable than Bell all on his own, which leaves an extra 15 WAR in the remaining players based on their 2012 seasons. Even going by previous years they provided about 10 WAR between them; the Blue Jays had a far better offseason than the Marlins did a year ago.

Stuck in a Slump
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Stuck in a Slump
3 years 4 months ago

The Jays have had a better off season than the Marlins did last year, all I’m saying is that there’s a possibility of poor team chemistry, the sum being less than the parts, or that things in general can go wrong. I’m kind of tired of people not being realistic about the possibility that things can still go wrong in during the season despite a team ‘winning’ the off season.

David
Guest
David
3 years 4 months ago

I never said things couldn’t go wrong, your original comment on the Blue Jays was a poorly made comparison to the 2012 Marlins so that’s what I responded to.

Outside of trying to account for the likelihood of injuries to a roster there isn’t much else to say. If the Blue Jays sustain major injuries next year they could be in trouble. Nebulous factors we can’t evaluate like team chemistry are present for every team. The Yankees seem to have the greatest injury risk in the AL East; their offense looks pretty bare for the first month at least.

Maybe the team “clicks” and everyone outperforms their projections and maybe the Blue Jays don’t “click” and they’re the 2012 Angels, but this is just baseless speculation. Maybe Trout is twice as good as last year or maybe he’s so bad he gets sent down to AAA. I’m not analysing anything so much as listing things that could happen, which isn’t useful.

Math
Guest
Math
3 years 4 months ago

Even with adding Granderson and Teixiera back in (if they come back healthy) the Blue Jays are around a 5 win favourite. My point overall is that looking at the talent on the teams on paper the Jays a clear favourite. Far too much narrative is used to say the Yankees and Red Sox will contend because of who they are not what they are. Of course anything can happen, this is baseball. The Orioles made the playoffs last year. But this being Fangraphs I wouldn’t expect a writer to say the Yankees are still on a level playing field with teams that project to be 5 or more wins better.

Preston
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Preston
3 years 4 months ago

5 wins is well within the error bars. That’s the point. And not all projection systems have the Jays being better at all.

Gregory
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Gregory
3 years 4 months ago

You used a “u” in favourite. Clearly a biased Jays fan.

Timb
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Timb
3 years 4 months ago

@Gregory: Do Canadiens really put a “u” in favourite?

Ugh. Weirdous.

Lawrie
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Lawrie
3 years 4 months ago

You got a problem bro?

TIF
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TIF
3 years 4 months ago

“Brou”.

Doug
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Doug
3 years 4 months ago

@Timb

Do Americans really use inches/pounds/ounces/other nonsense?

Ugh, why.

Cidron
Member
Cidron
3 years 4 months ago

Toast — maybe lightly toasted toast, but still toast nonetheless. As stated, they cant take much more (regarding missed time and/or injuries.). But, to expect that club to NOT miss more time during the season (as opposed to pre-season and start), is silly and wishful thinking on the part of Yankee fans. Asking Youk to not miss time alone is a fantasy.

Ian R.
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Ian R.
3 years 4 months ago

This. The fact that the Yankees are dealing with multiple significant injuries before the season even starts indicates that if they’re not already in serious trouble, they’re teetering on the brink. And all signs point to their falling over the edge.

harrumph
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harrumph
3 years 4 months ago

Bingo.

If everybody comes off the DL in a timely fashion and nobody else gets hurt, they’ll finish 85-77? Good luck.

Stuck in a Slump
Guest
Stuck in a Slump
3 years 4 months ago

I wonder, given that Tex is hurt now, maybe the Yankees should shift Youkilis to 1B and play Nunez at 3B until he returns, it could also help keep Youk healthy enough to play most every day.

wjylaw
Member
wjylaw
3 years 4 months ago

I was also thinking this. Might make Nunez worth a chance in a league where he’s ss eligible.

asaw780
Member
asaw780
3 years 4 months ago

– What if we replace Stewart with Frankie Cervelli?
– Mustelier played 24 games at 3B between AA and AAA last year, he could hack it at 3B and Youk would move to first where he’s less likely to get injured. He’s slotted in at 3B in today’s exhibition game vs. the Phillies
– A youngster like Melky Mesa or Z. Almonte instead of Rivera in left. Can’t be worse with the bat, and lightyears better on defense

Math
Guest
Math
3 years 4 months ago

I still think they’re better than the Red Sox.

nj
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nj
3 years 4 months ago

Is there any studies that show if team WAR is linear or not? Maybe it is some sort of curve, with player WAR affecting the team war differently, depending at what level the team is on? So say losing a 3 WAR player for a month and then another 3 WAR player for a different month, will not affect a team as much as losing both for the same month. Let us say the Yankees were expected to win 16 games in a given month. Losing one 3 WAR player would equate to losing 1/2 a game, but losing two such players in the same month might take it down to 2 games not 1. But if each player missed a different month then the total would stay at one extra loss over that period?

Ben
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Ben
3 years 4 months ago

This was discussed yesterday, but nothing resembling conclusively.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mark-teixeira-the-latest-damaged-yankee/#comment-3990746

doylerules12
Member
doylerules12
3 years 4 months ago

What about the fact that, future injuries to a very aged team are likely to happen as well. A team doesnt get 162 out of each regular postion player, doesnt get 33 starts out of each starter?

DJG
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DJG
3 years 4 months ago

WAR is a cumulative stat that takes into account playing time, so “typical” injuries / missed games are built into that author’s projection. He’s not assuming 162 games and 33 starts out of everybody. For example, it looks like he’s got Pettitte down for 2.5 WAR, which seems about right for 20-25 starts. If we assumed 33 starts it would be a lot closer to 4 WAR.

Matt P
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Matt P
3 years 4 months ago

But players get hurt. If Teix and Grandy can play the whole season and the rest of the team stays healthy (aside from A-Rod remaining hurt and the inevitable Youk and Hafner injuries) then they’ll have done decent with injuries. But at this point there’s no reason to assume they get that lucky.

I will note that I find it highly unlikely that their bench doesn’t produce negative WAR. Bad players typically produce negative numbers.

DJG
Guest
DJG
3 years 4 months ago

See my comment above to doylerules12. The WAR projections are accounting for typical missed time. He has Hafner down for 1 WAR, that’s clearly assuming missed time, something in the neighborhood of 400 PA.

Matt P
Guest
Matt P
3 years 4 months ago

Yes, he has Hafner at 1 WAR (300 PAs) and Youk at 2 WAR (400 PAs) which means he thinks those two will get hurt.

Thing is at this point, if they get away with just those two getting injured (and they haven’t lasted a full season in a long time) then that’s pretty good luck. I’d expect a few more injuries in addition to what they’ve already had. Perhaps Suzuki or Jeter also get hurt or Hughes, Grandy and Teix stay injured. You should expect more injuries then what has happened.

Given that Pettitte is projected to be worth 1.5 WAR in 20 starts by both Zips and Steamer then having him worth 2.5 WAR assumes he’ll last a whole season.

The WAR projections are not accounting for typical missed time. They’re accounting for players who typically are hurt to continue to be hurt. There’s a difference.

DJG
Guest
DJG
3 years 4 months ago

I’m not sure what your point is. Do you have a problem with the individual projected WARs of specific players (Ichiro? Jeter?), or do you just want to apply some sort of across the board “old and injury-prone team WAR deduction”, above and beyond what is already considered in the individual projected WARs?

Keep in mind that, on average, some players will get hurt and under perform their projected WARs, but some will stay healthy beyond what was predicted and over perform their projected WARs.

Also, your numbers with Pettitte aren’t right. Zips says 1.5 WAR for 16 starts. And keep in mind a few fractions of WAR here and there don’t effect the overall point of the article, anyway.

redsox1
Member
redsox1
3 years 4 months ago

Curious if there any thoughtful insights out there on Sabathia’s diminished velocity last year? He saw a meaningful drop across all of his pitches in ’12. Importantly, his FB fell from 93.9 in ’11 to 92.4 in ’12. I wonder if this can be attributed to injury, age, or perhaps even a conscious decision on the part of CC (e.g. to better command his pitches or to handle a full season’s workload now that he’s into his 30?s)? Interestingly, even with the diminished velocity, he actually missed more bats with his pitches last year (11.5% SwStr) than in any season since ’08.

Any thoughts on what this may harbinger for this season? For one, I think Girardi may limit CC’s IP this year closer to 180-190 than the 200-240 we’ve seen from him in recent years. Assuming the same performance as last season (41.7 IP/WAR), 20 or so fewer innings of CC is roughly another half a win off the books in 2013.

Preston
Guest
Preston
3 years 4 months ago

Well he projected Sabathia for 4 wins, which would be his lowest total since 2004. He did have a velocity decline, but he posted the second highest K rate of his career, with the second lowest BB rate of his career and still maintained a healthy GB rate. So I don’t see it as a harbinger of a decline in production. He only pitched 200 innings last season(after five straight years of 230+), and I think it’s fair to say that we should probably expect an inning total ~ 200 rather than 240. But I still think he’s likely to be a 4.5-5 win pitcher rather than just 4.

LaLoosh
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LaLoosh
3 years 4 months ago

toast.

Matt
Guest
Matt
3 years 4 months ago

Thanks, Nuke. Just make sure that you don’t shake off Crash, or he’ll tell the batter what’s coming. Guy could hit the bull and win a free steak.

Preston
Guest
Preston
3 years 4 months ago

I would think the Yankees are putting in a call to Scott Rolen. He’s likely to outhit Dan Johnson, and would improve their infield defense both at 3B and at 1B (where Youk would be better than Dan Johnson). With the prospect of Teixeira’s injury lingering, Hafner’s frailty and to a lesser extent Youk’s frailty as well as the uncertainty surrounding A-Rod, Rolen could probably get playing time all year long.

Dan Conley
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Dan Conley
3 years 4 months ago

Rolen would need to spend a lot of time in the Hot Tub Time Machine first.

LaLoosh
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LaLoosh
3 years 4 months ago

cause the Yankees don’t have enough 38 year olds…

Preston
Guest
Preston
3 years 4 months ago

I don’t know why age would be a factor in not signing Rolen a 38 yo Rolen is probably able to contribute more to a team than a 33 yo Dan Johnson.

grant
Guest
grant
3 years 4 months ago

It seems to me that the probability of the Yankees, at this point, exceeding their projections by a wide margin are probably diminished, aside from the projections themselves, for two reasons:
1. Depth. They’re starting to run out of bodies that can reasonably be expected to get above replacement level. Upper levels of farm system are thin, there aren’t any “he projects at 1 WAR but could get to 3” type players on the roster.
2. Decreased likelihood of exceeding projections for guys like Texeira and Granderson. For the Yankees to exceed expectations it probably required those guys to exceed projections and return form from earlier years. Pre-injury, that didn’t seem far fetched. Much harder for them to do that coming back from wrist problems.

Frank
Guest
Frank
3 years 4 months ago

Still FAR to early to panic. The perception will change when Reyes and Johnson go on the DL. Then it will change again once Youkilis hits the DL and Teixeira suffers a setback. And so on and so on…

LaLoosh
Guest
LaLoosh
3 years 4 months ago

reality is starting to set in for the Yankees… face it, in years past they would have at least re-signed Swisher, if not Swisher *and* Greinke.

They are going to need Williams, Sanchez, Austin and Heathcott to all be pretty damn good to continue this dynasty much longer into the future….

Hurtlockertwo
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Hurtlockertwo
3 years 4 months ago

Yankees finishing last?? We can only hope.

Cidron
Member
Cidron
3 years 4 months ago

My wondering is, Why dont they play Hafner at 1b? Sure, he hasnt picked up a glove in “a few years” but, its among the easier positions to play, and it is the position that he did play during his “fielding” years. Okay, I will give you this.. Maybe not full time, but at least 2-4 days a week? Serious.. Why not? Especially given a) cano at 2b and his ability b) the need for a 1b now and c) the knowing it is only for a short time. Why not.

Preston
Guest
Preston
3 years 4 months ago

He was a butcher with the glove when he did play, and that was a long time ago. Also they are going to need his bat if they are going to overcome the loss of Granderson and Teixeira and he’s very injury prone. So making him flail around on the infield is only going to make him more likely to get hurt.

Cidron
Member
Cidron
3 years 4 months ago

I agree, it might get him injured. But, he isnt being counted on as a critical component for the year. They know his injury history. But, they need a 1b NOW. Stick him there for the duration of Tex’s injury (in a platoon). Cross your fingers. Even if he does get injured. Tex should have returned, or is soon to. Tex is the important one. And, with luck, Hafner may return later in the year at DH (assuming he did injure himself during his 1b stint).

Preston
Guest
Preston
3 years 4 months ago

They don’t have anybody else who would DH. Filling the void at 1b by creating a void at DH isn’t the answer. Especially if that swap might make the void at DH last into the season.

MrMan
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MrMan
3 years 4 months ago

“I can see this team (should the stars return at full health) being worth 87-90 wins, but more realistically around 85-88.”

I find these kind of statements about any team laughable. Basically you’re saying this team will win between 85 and 90 games. I don’t care whether it’s the Yankees or whoever….using projected WAR to project a team’s final win total is little more than informed guessing.

Yes….I’m sure if you do it for every team you’ll have what LOOKS like a pretty good template for the final season records. And then…if you wait until the end of the season and compare them again…you’ll say “oh wow….there’s not much correlation there”.

Baseball almost always yields the unexpected. Players get injured. Stars underperform. Average players have career years. Old washed up guys find the fountain of youth. A team wins every one of its 1-run and extra inning games. Owners and GMs panic and make stupid deals.

I guess I just find all this to be little more than navel-gazing. Yeah, it’s all based on sound ideas and informed thinking…but the end result is I could just peruse last year’s standings and an ESPN summary of off-season moves and my predictions would probably be as accurate (and by “accurate” I mean wholly inaccurate).

HawkeyeCub
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HawkeyeCub
3 years 4 months ago

It is telling that the Yankees don’t have anyone on the bench who is above replacement level at 1st or leftfield.

Misfit
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Misfit
3 years 4 months ago

Give that Teixeira is a switch-hitter, has it been reported if he only experiences discomfort when batting from one side? It might be that he can heal enough in four to six weeks to be a platoon player if they’re desperate. Considering it’s March, I doubt they’d be looking to do this but if June rolls around and he’s still not 100% (and they’re sick of looking at Dan Johnson) maybe they consider it.

samuelraphael
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Barbaro Canizares is the answer.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 4 months ago

And now the question: Who is Barbaro Canizares’ mother’s favorite player?

Eric
Guest
Eric
3 years 4 months ago

Yes. If everyone comes back and none of the other old guys get hurt or regress the yanks might contend for a wildcard. Not bloody likely

George Resor
Member
3 years 4 months ago

the Yankees will be much better than people expect. first the Yankees were very good last year they won 95 games in a very competitive division last year, and that was actually underachieving given there talent. offensively that had a team clutch between -2.9 and -2.75 (b-ref vs fangraphs), meaning that there true talent was much closer to 98 wins then 95. Second Brett Gardener is a beast, having him return to the outfield will be huge. From 2010-2011 he was worth 11.3 fWAR, for comparison that is better than Matt Kemp or Granderson, the only better outfielders during that time were Holliday, Braun, Hamilton, and Bautista. The return of a player of that caliber is usually not overlooked. Also if you believe that gardener can play center-field without it hurting his hitting or his fielding he looks even better if he were playing center from ’10-’11 his WAR would have been north of 12.5 making him second only to Bautista for outfielders during that time.

Schuxu
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Schuxu
3 years 4 months ago

Will Pineda return at some point and how much would a ’11 like version of him improve over what they have at the back end of the rotation?

Dimaggio
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Dimaggio
3 years 4 months ago

I know WAR is what we do around here but when you have the combination of an older team, once big time stars who could always catch lightning in a bottle, all the question marks, ancient, injury prone, starters with in some instances tantalizing stuff, awesome bullpen arms and a 43 year old legendary closer, these projections seem silly. Does Jeter’s foot really bother him. Does AROD come back and help to the tune of a WAR or TWO. Is Gardner the same player 2 years older coming off an elbow at 30 and moving to Center. If granderson comes back as a left fielder and looses power, he could be replacement level. Tex could fall in offensively when he comes back, it’s a wrist. CANO IS AWESOME. The pitching staff has value and questions. Youk, Hafner, Suzuki, Catcher, Chamberlain, Hughes, Pettite, Nova, 43 year old Rivera, Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz. Pineda? Kuroda is valid, Sabathia is good to great. I’m rambling but I’m inclined to say that this is the intellectual truth about a projection for this team. A projection is almost impossible.

hardwood
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hardwood
3 years 4 months ago

Because, as we all know, its impossible that another Yankee could be injured this year!

The whole article is pretty meaningless if you take that into account… not what I’d expect from fangraphs.

Manny
Guest
Manny
3 years 4 months ago

All you have to do look is look at the roster… I guess their plan is to be the 2nd coming of the Mets. Absolutely no depth anywhere on the field. Melky Mesa is our 4th OF? Ichiro, Grandy (oops not him) & Gardner are going to play 162 games? Nunez the error machine on the field? Whatever combination hey put at C will give 0 offense. They lost an easy 125+ HR from last year. No idea what Yuk will give us. Hafner at DH…ummm more like DL.

An aging team with key players coming off injuries & some new injuries already to key players. Top it off by the manager saying they are going try to manufacture runs…LOL there! Their saving grace is their pitching which should keep them around the 85 to 87 Wins this year. That’s if they have no other injuries to key players.

On the positive side – seats will be easier to obtain this year (;-).

jose perez
Guest
3 years 3 months ago

at yankee fans this messager Hal Stienbrenner an GM Brian Cashman. think yankees lineup an look bad an cant hit not much an cant scores much run. il now Mark teixeira an curtis granderson can back look likes may. the yankees still the need big bat likes justin morneau because the yankees look bad en not scores to muh runs this 2013 season. tnink the yankees need big bat power hitter likes justin morneau. pleause trade tripleA Prospect for justin morneau this good ideal oction for the yankees right now in the yankees fans from new york for moment tnank you yankees fans.

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