Marketing Mark Reynolds
The Orioles are reportedly looking to trade “third baseman” Mark Reynolds and reliever Kevin Gregg. You think so, doctor? It would be strange if the team really waited until this late to start shopping these two veterans, who are rather pointless on a team that is at the beginning of what looks to be a long rebuilding process. To be fair, while the rumor is just coming out now, they may have been shopping these guys for a while. Gregg is a pretty generic reliever (other than having that oh-so-valuable “closer experience”), but Reynolds is an interesting case. His problems making contact with both the bat and glove make him a flawed player, but his monstrous power makes him playable in the right situation. But are there any teams on which that situation exists?
A rebuilding team probably should not be looking at Reynolds. He is 28, so he is not old, but there probably is not much age-based upside there, either (even if you dismiss the idea that Reynolds is going to age badly due to his skill set). In addition, while Reynolds is not terribly expensive relative to his projected performance at $8 million guaranteed ($7.5 million salary, with a $500,000 buyout on his $11 million club option for 2013), he is not cheap enough to really be a stopgap for a rebuilding team on a budget.
That eliminates a number of teams, so what contenders could use a… third baseman? At the moment Reynolds sits atop the Orioles “official” depth chart on the team web site, but that seems like something of a holdover from last season as well as a plan to keep marketing him as a third baseman. That sort of makes sense, but the truth is that few teams would be willing to tolerate Reynolds glove at third base.
The Orioles might be able to do so for a bit, since the two other “third basemen” they acquired — Chris Davis and Wilson Betemit — are, like Reynolds, third basemen in the same way that Bill James once said Bobby Bonilla was a third baseman. (James wrote something to the effect that Bonilla was a third basemen in the same way he would be an astronaut if you shot him into space.) You can look up the numbers yourself, and if you do not trust them, just watch Reynolds play third base. He might have passed for “below average” a couple of years ago, but at this point, most would say he is simply horrible there.
Now, some players can make for their limitations in the field with the bat, and Reynolds has done so in the past. In 2009, for example, he was about 25 runs above average on offense, which can make up for a lot of fielding problems. However, that season now looks like a BABIP-fueled career year. Reynolds has settled into being the extreme three true outcomes player he usually looks like, with a good walk rate, monster power, and many, many strikeouts. Strikeouts are not that much worse than regular outs, but when the ball does not get into play that often, there are not going to be that many singles and doubles, which limits a player’s ability to get on-base, even with good walk rate. Thus, despite having walk rates over 12 percent the last two seasons, Reynolds’ combination of an extreme fly ball rate (which lowers BABIP) and high strikeout rates (meaning there aren’t many balls in play to begin with) have kept his on-base percentage around .320. Reynolds hit 37 home runs in 2011, but still did not even manage a .350 wOBA.
So we have a contact-challenged power hitter who probably should not be playing third and is not dirt cheap, what use is he? ZiPS projects Reynolds for a .340 wOBA in 2012, while Steamer is more optimistic at .351. That may not be terribly exciting for a first baseman or DH, but teams have done worse. But at this point prior to the regular season, how many could actually use Reynolds if the Orioles marketed him as a first baseman/DH? Here is a brief and non-exhaustive group of possibilities, sticking with the American League (assuming a team would not want him at first base full-time, although that is another possibility):
The Rays might have made sense prior to signing Luke Scott and Carlos Pena to fill their first base and DH roles, but it is too late for that now. The Blue Jays might be considered a contender by some, but while Reynolds fits the power-hitting M.O. of the Toronto offense and would be an improvement over Adam Lind or Edwin Encarnacion with the bat, it would not be enough to justify the salary.
The Red Sox obviously have David Ortiz at DH, so they are out, but the Yankees made sense prior to signing Raul Ibanez, and might still make sense. If you think that Reynolds’ bat is not that great for a DH, you should check out Ibanez’s. ZiPS projects him for a .317 wOBA in 2012, which is below average, making him a replacement level DH. Ibanez does no even project that well as a platoon DH. Reynolds’ older “twin” Russell Branyan (both bad third basemen with lots of power, strikeouts, and defensive issues), with the Yankees on a minor-league deal, is probably a better option for the DH role than Ibanez at this point.
However, Reynolds is right-handed. While he is still likely a better hitter against righties than Ibanez, the Yankees already have a right-handed DH in Andruw Jones. New York might be better off with Reynolds as a full-time DH than splitting time between Ibanez and Jones, but the improvement would not be that great. It might have made sense earlier in the off-season, but not now.
Looking around the American League, there are not many other contenders that would fit for Reynolds. The Angels are overflowing with 1B/DH types. The Rangers might be able to stand for an improvement over Mitch Moreland at first base, and have the money, but DH is taken up with Michael Young‘s salary, and despite the new cable money, the cash is not flowing. That might work, but they seem like they want to see if Moreland’s problems in 2011 were injury-related.
I first thought of bringing up the Tigers as as joke, with Reynolds the DH also backing up fellow defensive standouts Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the corners. However, the Tigers currently look like they are going to have Delmon Young as their starting DH. Yes, they have a pretty high payroll, but in for a dime, in for a dollar, right?
The snag here is that I suspect that the Tigers do plan on playing plenty of games with Cabrera or Fielder at DH, anyway. That that would put Brandon Inge back at third, where, without an elite glove, he is probably worse than his bizarro twin Reynolds. So it might sort of work, but with Young, Cabrera, and Young already all defensive disasters when they pay the field, the Tigers probably do not want to add a similarly-troubled player in Reynolds, which would force someone to don a glove more than they should.
The team that might make the most sense in the American League (budget permitting) might be the Minnesota Twins. They currently have Ryan “Doh Mitt” Doumit penciled in as their primary DH, and he is also expected to back up Joe Mauer at catcher and also Justin Morneau at first (assuming Morneau is ready to play this season). However, despite the shiny .360 wOBA in 2011, Doumit’s bat is probably not close to that good given the small sample of BABIP-heavy performance from last season and prior performance. Reynolds is a better hitter despite his problems, and if Morneau cannot go this season, the Twins, stuck in in a tough “all in” situation at the moment, do not need to be playing Doumit’s bat full time at first base or DH. Reynolds would be the better choice in either situation, even if Joe Mauer is getting time at first and DH, too.
The Twins might have a payroll issue with taking Reynolds, who would probably come relatively cheap in terms of talent given his limitations. However, they make as much or more sense than anyone. Still, even the Twins have all their roles filled, at least nominally. As I wrote at the beginning, it may be that the Orioles have been shopping Reynolds all winter. But if the waited until the start of the Spring, they have only made their reportedly desire to move Reynolds more difficult to fulfill, as teams who could use Reynolds have most of their positional and payroll decisions made… at least for now. There may be a Reynolds market later in the season if he hits will enough to convince teams he is worth playing at first or DH, but it is far from promising now.
“…the beginning of what looks to be a long rebuilding process”
the beginning? I was under the impression that they’ve been in rebuild mode for a while now.
Signing Derrick Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Proven Closer Kevin Gregg marked the end of any sincere attempt to rebuild. The jury is out on whether trading for Tommy Hunter and Dana Eveland and Jason Hammel while signing Wilson Betemit and Endy Chavez can reasonably be said to mark the beginning of a new one.
I think Reynolds is a player that could actually be decent at LF, although I have no idea how difficult that type of switch that would be. He seems to have a decent arm and enough speed to have range, and his bat plays in LF. The O’s have reimold there, and should probably actually give him a full season there, so I’d like to see them sell Reynolds as a possible LF/DH/1B/3B player, with a decent bat, that I think got around 3 WAR before the loss in WAR for fielding. (Baseball Reference).
A line drive rate of 13% and K rate of 35% will have you hovering around the Mendoza line for years to come.
With the flexibility the Jays have on Lind’s contract until 2016 and him having in my opinion more upside, I see little chance they even inquire.
I hope so. While my hopes of Adam Lind being the player that he was in 2009 fade a little more each day, I’d rather have him than Reynolds. He showed flashes of that form last year. His second half was terrible. While considered a minus defender, his glove is a million times better than Reynolds and while his BABIP was in the same neighbourhood ad Reynolds’ walk rate is much better, I’ll still take Lind over Reynolds because he strikes out a lot less. I wasn’t a fan of JP Ricciardi, but the one thing I agreed with him on was that Adam Dunn was a pile of crap. I don’t want guys like Reynolds and Dunn on my team. I don’t care if they club 40 homeruns a season. I had players who swing and miss more often than they put balls in play.
Plus, I strongly disagree that Mark Reynolds is an upgrade from Encarnacion. E5 is a better hitter and a better defender. If you lose out in the who-has-a-better-glove sweepstakes with E5 as your competition, you probably don’t deserve a job.
Yes, he was hitting .033/.349/.518/.868 on July 20th.
Of course, that should read .300/.349/.518/.868
Those first numbers could be a Russell Branyan season.
I think the Yankees should try and get him. Ibanez has looked terrible this spring and Branyan hasn’t played due to injury. Reynolds could be the full time DH and provide some flexibility in that he could play some time at the corners (although not to much time hopefully).
“So it might sort of work, but with Young, Cabrera, and Young already all defensive disasters when they pay the field,”
“Young, Cabrera, Young” “pay the field”
Uhhh…..What? For some reson I can’t stop laughing about players paying the field
Typos amuse me, too.
The Braves are a not terrible fit in the NL. They don’t have a RH 1B option, Chipper is sure to miss some days at 3B, and they got Uggla specifically to add more RH power last year. With Hinske, Sutton, and Diaz all looking like OF options off the bench, they might have a spot.
With the rumored asking price for Adam Jones though, I’d hate to hear what the O’s think a Mark Reynolds is worth.
Asking for young pieces instead of an overrated Sp and a utility guy who doesn’t fit with the Os means they asked for too much? It just wasn’t a fit is all. Plus u still have to like AJ s upside, especially on a rebuild team
I was alluding to the overrated SP + utility guy + two top young SP rumor …
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/braves-orioles-discussed-jones-pitchers.html
AJ is an adequate but not good CF with an adequate but not great bat; that combination is valuable but not worth that price. Asking for young pieces makes sense for the O’s, asking for young pieces plus the other two established guys doesnt. I made sure in my first post to use the term “rumored”.
I should probably also add that if the O’s dont want to trade him, then asking for the moon also makes sense.
Are you kidding? The Braves are a terrible fit in the NL.
“Not terrible” good
They have open plate appearances at 3B, 1B, and pinch hitting and have expressed a desire for more RH power in the not so distant past. Their current backup to Freeman is the equally left handed Hinske so having Reynolds allows them to use the platoon and use Hinske as the PH/spot OF he is best at, their current backup to 3B is Prado which puts Diaz in the lineup. It’s not a perfect fit, but hte Braves could do worse.
“Not terrible” does not equal “good” is what I meant
Yeah, I knew that. I was attempting a joke. It failed.
I think the Rockies would be a good landing place. With there lineup he could bat 6th through 8th and with the best shortstop in baseball right now he would not have to cover a lot of ground. They have plenty of infield players they could give the O’s in return, Herrera, Nelson and Young plus who ever they may have in the minors.
If I’m the Yankees I’d still rather have him than Eric Chavez, right handed or not.
The Yankees do need to cover at least 40 games at 3B while ARod is DH/injured in every season going forward.
What team wouldn’t jump at the chance to add a guy that will set a team record strikeouts almost guaranteed??
I love how Klaassen first concluded that Reynolds wouldn’t fit on a team thats not looking to contend, went down the line looking at what contender would be a good fit, and ended up at a team that was 63-99 last year as the place he would fit best.
I think that an underlying problem with Reynolds may not being making him marketable to another FO, but to other coaching staffs and fan bases. I’m sure he really frustrates the fans of the team he is on. I can’t help but wonder how much a FO would consider the backlash from those two groups when considering trading for an error machine and strikeout master like Reynolds.
I’m really shocked that you brought up the Twins but not the Indians. Given the extreme left handedness of the team as a whole, and the lack of power, Reynolds could make sense. If LaPorta was kept in AAA for the year then Reynolds could in theory platoon with Kotchman at 1B, and Hafner at DH and possibly 3B, depending on if the team is willing to carry three of them or wants to send Chisenhall back to Columbus.
The guy must be better than Shelley Duncan and LaPorta, and could provide interesting competition with Russ Canzler.
This oversight has me a little disappointed Mr. Klaassen
I highly doubt the Indians ground ball staff could handle Reynolds in the field. Also, highly unlikely the Indians would pay his salary.
I thought about the Dodgers, since they are relatively weak at the corners, but they probably have enough platoon-ish type players on that roster.
I think acquiring Reynolds would also fit in with Oakland’s offseason moves.
The Phillies have been widely speculated as a possible destination for Reynolds. However, just FYI, Roch Kubatko, has pretty much shot down even the notion that Reynolds is on the market. So, this conversation is may be for naught.
If morse or laroche are going to miss some time to start the year (both are recovering from injuries now), the Nats could be a fit. They could probably send lannan, who is expendible and a good budget counterweight to Reynolds price tag. they could even use him as a right handed platoon option with laroche, who has not been good against lhp in his career
the Philles made sense to me. assuming that Polanco can play 2nd, Reynolds can play 3rd or 1st.
To be fair, Reynolds makes some amazing plays at 3B. There are times you could believe he’s as good as anyone with the glove. But as his numbers show (and eyes can see), he also looks awful on lots of routine plays. That’s the real frustration with Reynolds’ defense: there are glimpses that the guy could be a solid defender, but they’re just barely enough to keep running him out there at 3B despite what is, on average, terrible defense. It’s the same underlying phenomenon that continually gives some “five tool prospects” jobs even after they’ve failed time-after-time at the MLB level.
Amazing looking plays are not a measure or indicator of defensive talent.
True. But it’s good for a Web Gem. ha ha.
Reynolds is consistently among the league leaders (worst) for fielding errors and throwing errors, even when you compare him to SS that have lots more total opps.
Comparing him to other 3B is leaguewide service to other 3B’s.
Matt in the field is similar to Matt at the plate … it’s all or nothing, and most of the time it’s nothing. The difference being that his amazing studff at the plate makes him somewhat valuable, his amazing stuff in the field doesn’t.
MR would be an interesting study at whether it’s lack of work ethic, lack of caring, or lack of ability. Like Azdrubal Cabrera it’s not the difficult plays that give him trouble, it’s the routine. Makes ya wonder if it’s a concentration issue or what given that a player that can make the spectacular *should* be able to make all of the routine plays.
Seeing MR on the CWS might be interesting … particularly if he bats behind Dunn. Feast or Famine could be the slogan of the year.
I’d say it’s a mental issue on the field. If he can make a spectacular play, he should be able to make the routine ones too. It could be a matter of thinking too much about the play before the play is made, then being too perfect, then trying even harder the next time. But on the harder play, he’s thinking about just one thing: making the play. He doesn’t have time to think
He’s got the ability, it’s a matter of just doing it. Again though, if it’s a mental issue, that can be harder to overcome then lack of ability itself. His mind could be his own worst enemy.
Maybe the Orioles should hire Lanny Bassham or something (a mental management coach/Olympic Gold Medalist).
What about Oakland? Reynold’s 8 mill might be a little bit of a hang up but maybe the O’s could pick up some of that salary and receive a better prospect package….Right now, Oakland’s 3rd base situation is abysmal after Scott Sizemore went down for the season with a torn ACL. They are going into opening season with Josh Donaldson (A AAA guy that is naturally a catcher with no 3rd base experience) as their starting 3rd baseman. I know the A’s are not contenders, but they are a power starved club that can desperately use a guy that can hit 30-35 jacks.
I do not see the Twins as contenders at all. How about the Nationals at firstbase? I think Reynolds is a better hitter than Laroche.
Very interesting piece on my favorite non-Indian. I was sort of hoping the O’s would take Chris Perez for him in the off-season. Of course, this start he’s having isn’t making me look very smart right now. I still think he ends up with a better wRC+ than the Tribe’s primary first baseman or LF (Hannahan shouldn’t be going anywhere…I’m not all that high on Chisenhall anyway).
One thing to consider: while Reynolds certainly benefitted from his .338 BABIP in his career year, it’s worth noting that after that year, he’d logged almost 1700 PAs in the bigs and had a BABIP of over .330. It’s hard for me to think that ’09 was a total fluke at that point. I think that either someone messed with his swing and/or approach to try to cut down on his strikeouts, or maybe it just took big-league pitchers 1700 PAs to find a way to get him to make weaker contact.
That being said, he still posted a 116wRC+ last year. I think if he can stay out of his head (in the field and at the plate), he can still be a productive player.