Marlins Pay Steep Price to Not Get Better

Things have been enthusiastic around the Marlins lately. They surprised the industry by managing to lock up Giancarlo Stanton, and then they turned their attention to trying to extend a handful of other promising young big-leaguers. Also, the Marlins swore to improve the immediate big-league roster, signaling that they want to get to the playoffs. There’s been a sense that, for the first time, the Marlins are serious about getting good and staying good, and paying money to do so. The Marlins are trying to convince everyone they’re entering a new era. Which is all well and good, until you make a misstep in trying to improve. That’s the real dangerous bit.

I’m not sure if this is the worst move of the offseason. If it is, I’m not sure if this will remain the worst move of the offseason. But my later response continues to match my initial response: Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers are making out like bandits, successfully selling Dee Gordon about as high as possible. The Dodgers are losing a probable regression candidate, about to enter his Super-Two seasons. They’re getting probably the Marlins’ best prospect, and then even more to boot. The Dodgers picked up some more long-term assets. The Marlins might not have gotten better at all.

Haren’s the most confusing player here. He’s due to make $10 million in 2015, and the Dodgers are agreeing to pay his full salary, but he’s also said that he’ll retire if he’s not around LA. So while Haren would be technically free for the Marlins, he might not throw a single pitch for the Marlins. Maybe he changes his mind. Maybe the Marlins turn around and send Haren to the Angels for something. Regardless, Haren looks like a functional starter, but not a valuable starter, and this trade isn’t about Haren. This is about the Marlins trying to find a long-term second baseman.

In general, you get the idea. The Marlins didn’t have an incumbent regular. At the second-base position, they’ve been projected fifth-worst in baseball. Gordon last year, in his age-26 season, was worth more than three wins. He stole a ton of bases. Gordon was a valuable young second baseman, and the Marlins wanted a valuable young second baseman. The problem is what Gordon is likely to be.

He played better defense at second than short. It’s plainly obvious that Gordon’s a good runner. He managed a 101 wRC+. But, Gordon seldom walks. Pitchers pound him with fastballs and pitches in the zone. Gordon also strikes out a little too often. He owns four career big-league home runs. Gordon’s offensive success last year was almost entirely a function of a .346 BABIP. You want to believe he can stay a BABIP threat, because of his legs, but recent history isn’t real encouraging.

Gordon’s home-runs-per-fly-ball rate for his career stands at 2.1%. Since 2002, there are 24 players who have batted at least 2,500 times, with a HR/FB no greater than 4%. Not a single one of those players has a wRC+ of 100 or better. The highest BABIP in the group is .331. The average wRC+ is 80. The average BABIP is .300. Among the most successful hitters, Chone Figgins, Luis Castillo, and Dave Roberts made more contact than Gordon, with more walks. Gordon, even last year, walked 31 times, with 107 whiffs.

Steamer could be more encouraged. It projects Gordon for an 83 wRC+, basically matching his career. Over 600 plate appearances, Steamer projects Gordon to be worth about 1.1 WAR. He’s not a guy who’s suddenly going to develop greater power. This is where things get extra bad. Were it not for Gordon, the Marlins would’ve had three candidates to get time at second base. Here are all their 2015 projected WAR/600:

Dietrich and Hernandez are projected to out-hit Gordon. Solano’s close. Obviously, there are questions about Dietrich’s defense. There are questions about Hernandez’s defense. There are questions about Solano’s everything. But it’s not like Gordon himself is free of question marks. The Marlins don’t seem to be improving at second base, at least not by any meaningful degree, and they even gave up Hernandez to get Gordon, even though Hernandez is younger and cheaper. Even if you’re higher on Gordon than the projections, his upside is clearly limited, and the Marlins had pieces to get by at the position.

And now I’ll remind you this wasn’t cheap. Enrique Hernandez for Dee Gordon, straight up, would’ve been okay for the Marlins. Not awesome; just okay. Defensible. This isn’t Enrique Hernandez for Dee Gordon, straight up.

Hernandez is going away, and he’s a useful utility player. He can play a lot of positions. Heaney entered last season as Baseball America’s No. 30 prospect in the game, and then he blitzed through Double-A and Triple-A to get to the majors. Heaney is a real good prospect, a little shy of elite. If you haven’t heard of Chris Hatcher, he just threw 56 relief innings, with five times as many strikeouts as walks. And Austin Barnes is a guy who can play catcher, second, and third, who just finished a minor-league season with more walks than whiffs. Every single player is interesting, with Heaney a quality headliner. All this, the Marlins gave up, to maybe not even improve.

For your consideration, here is Kiley McDaniel on Heaney and Barnes, who are the two real prospects.

Heaney:

Heaney was the 9th overall pick in 2012 out of Oklahoma State and was seen as a lefty with feel and a fastball/slider combo that flashed plus. Since signing, his changeup has come along and flashed above average, while his fastball (90-93, touching 95 mph with life when down in the zone) and slider are still consistently 55-60 pitches on the 20-80 scale. His command is at least average and the historically-aggressive-with-prospects Marlins already had him in the big leagues two years after being drafted, with a good shot at breaking spring training in the MLB rotation in 2015. He could probably use a little more seasoning, but should be ready for a big league rotation spot at some point in 2015, with a good chance to reach his #3 starter upside in a few years.

Barnes:

Barnes has a much lower profile as an amateur than Heaney, signing for $95,000 in the 9th round in 2011 out of Arizona State. He was a middle infielder in college that converted to catching and he’s played well at multiple defensive spots; Barnes is still a solid runner for a catcher and can still play a big league caliber second base and third base. The Marlins played him at all three spots late in the season to keep him fresh and planned to do so going forward as well. He’s an advanced hitter with good feel for the strike zone, but not huge bat speed or raw power, projecting as a .260-.275 hitter with walks and 8-10 homers while playing a super utility role. Given the low offensive bar for catching, there’s still a chance he could work his way into a low-end everyday option behind the plate. Either way, Barnes should be ready to contribute in the big leagues at some point in 2015.

Heaney probably isn’t going to blossom into an ace. Hatcher, at the best of times, is a functional reliever. Barnes has a low ceiling and isn’t thought of as a top prospect, and Hernandez was dealt by the Astros just last summer despite a number of organizational questions about the left side of the infield. There’s no Addison Russell, here. There’s presumably no superstar. But there’s the Marlins giving up a good amount of short- and long-term value, and there’s the Marlins not getting meaningfully better in exchange. For Miami, it’s an unnecessary and damaging trade, and for Los Angeles, Andrew Friedman is showing he brought his skills over from Tampa. The Dodgers have more money than almost anyone, and the Dodgers have more prospects than almost anyone. The Marlins did the Dodgers a favor they didn’t need.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Slats
Guest
Slats
1 year 5 months ago

Kershaw, Ryu, Urias, and Heaney sounds like a lefty’s nightmare.

Some guy
Guest
Some guy
1 year 5 months ago

possibly Hamels too

JJ
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JJ
1 year 5 months ago

THE DODGERS ARE GOING TO GET ANDREW HEANEY FOR DEE FUCKING GORDON??!?!!!!!!!??

BaseballGuy
Guest
BaseballGuy
1 year 5 months ago

You’re prospect-effing. Heaney is a big question mark. He’s not a wipe-out, no-doubt-about-it guy at all. Just because he’s a name people have heard and ranks highly on some lists doesn’t mean he can get MLB hitters out (and he certainly didn’t in his relief outings last year). Whether he has an out pitch is questionable, and some scouts think he’s a major injury waiting to happen because of his build and extreme crossfire delivery.

agam22
Guest
agam22
1 year 5 months ago

Yes, he is a question mark. I’d still rather have him and all the other pieces than Gordon by a lot

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
1 year 5 months ago

He’d probably get Dee Gordon out.

Pro Golfer Nacho Elvira
Guest
Pro Golfer Nacho Elvira
1 year 5 months ago

Well done sir. Brevity = witsoul.

Richie
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Richie
1 year 5 months ago

A reasoned comment regarding the major aspect of the trade. Why in the world would anybody ‘-‘ it??

KCDaveInLA
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KCDaveInLA
1 year 5 months ago

Consider too, that Dee Gordon was considered a washout in Dodger circles, before his hot start this year, then he tanked in the second half. This was a heist for the Dodgers (but then they get a 31-year old second basemen…yeesh).

Balthazar
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

I don’t remotely get this trade for the Marlins. Heaney is an actually valuable asset: LHP, good repertoire, mid-rotation projection, six years of control. In the present market, that should get you somebody actually, y’know, GOOD.

Dee Gordon doesn’t start on a winning team in my view; never impressed with his bat, and his D is nothing special. Any team who had him starting should/would be seriously looking for an upgrade . . . which was exactly LA’s take, ‘not good enough.’ He only has three years of control unless somebody is, bizarrely, thinking about extending a barely league average player. Haren might help, but he’s not going to pitch in Miami, of all places.

The only way I can figure this is that if Haren retires Miami has an agreement in the deal to return him to the Dodgers for another, previously agreed upon player. I’m not even sure if that kind of agreement is allowed. But Gordon and Haren don’t make any sense, even before Miami chipped in some other actually useful guys to stack the thing even more in LA’s favor.

Weird, sucktastic trade for the Marlines. For LA, it’s laugh all the way to the playoffs. They end up with short-timers but still useful Kendrick and Rollins at the keystone while their prospects sort themselves out, and a pitcher, Heaney, better than any starting prospect in their system by as significant margin. I don’t know if Friedman is a genius or the reincarnation of Anton Mesmer, but he made out pretty damned well for a guy with mouldering ruins to swap.

Atreyu Jones
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Atreyu Jones
1 year 5 months ago

How can you say Dee Gordon doesn’t start on a winning team? He just was a starter on a 94-win team this very year!

Pithy GM
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Pithy GM
1 year 5 months ago

I knew my demands were crazy, but it turns out they weren’t quite crazy enough to work

Punto4Prez
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Punto4Prez
1 year 5 months ago

I still have a hard time believing that this really happened.

Tom
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Tom
1 year 5 months ago

On your grid, Marlins improve at 2B from #27 to #23. Hmmmm.

Pale Hose
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Pale Hose
1 year 5 months ago

Ok, Andrew, don’t blow this. Keep a straight face. Oh no! Did I smirk? They’re on to me. Dammit! They accepted? Just be casual.

Adam
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Adam
1 year 5 months ago

Now casually walk out the door. Check right. Check left. No one is looking….NOW RUN LIKE HELL!

Keyser Söze
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Keyser Söze
1 year 5 months ago

Even my balls aren’t big enough for what he did.

Swfcdan
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Swfcdan
1 year 5 months ago

*Pictures Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill celebrating wildly after hanging up”

Josh
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Josh
1 year 5 months ago

Marlins got their new Luis Castillo/Juan Pierre. they really have always loved those 2 HR, 60 SB types.

I’m no Dodgers fan, but it always makes me kind of giddy to see a great GM pull off this type of move, selling high on an asset that the old school types love to overvalue.

Hayves
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Hayves
1 year 5 months ago

Quilvio Veras

Erubiel durazo
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Erubiel durazo
1 year 5 months ago

At least versa could work a walk. Best lead off combo the braves ever had was Veras-furcal.

david
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david
1 year 5 months ago

Delino Deshields

Jason B
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Jason B
1 year 5 months ago

Dan Ug…oh, wait.

(Now known as Dan “UGGGGGGGH!”)

BenRevereDoesSteroids
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BenRevereDoesSteroids
1 year 5 months ago

Marlins may easily come out on top here. Haren has said he will retire if he is traded to anyone but the Angels. So if Haren retires, and the commissioner vetoes this trade, then the Marlins win this one hands down.

Eminor3rd
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Eminor3rd
1 year 5 months ago

lol

chuckb
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chuckb
1 year 5 months ago

Is this sarcastic? The only way the Marlins win this deal is if the commissioner vetoes it? That’s probably an accurate statement and an indication of how bad this deal is for the Fish.

Seeing as how Haren hasn’t been shy about telling the world that he might retire if traded, I would imagine that the most the commissioner might do is make the Dodgers throw in some filler to make up for the loss of Haren.

ClayDV
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ClayDV
1 year 5 months ago

(woosh)

Mike Green
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Mike Green
1 year 5 months ago

I think that this is a bit harsh. Dee Gordon ran up a .346 BABIP last year, but he did it pretty honestly. He runs like the wind, so he put the ball on the ground more than ever, kept up his line drive rate and cut his pop-up rate drastically.

I ran a Play Index to see whether comparable players were able to sustain high BABIPs from their mid 20s. I looked for seasons with BABIPs of .340+, with 50+ stolen bases and 10+ triples. I threw out Ty Cobb and Tim Raines and Benny Kauff’s Federal league season and Snuffy Stirnweiss wartime season. I ended up with just 4 names: Willie Wilson, Michael Bourn, Vince Coleman and Willie McGee. Bourn and McGee sustained the BABIPs well. Wilson fell off modestly. Coleman collapsed.

I don’t agree with Steamer’s .305 BABIP projection for Gordon. I’d have it at .325-.330. This makes a huge difference in his offensive value.

something something
Guest
something something
1 year 5 months ago

So let’s say Gordon sustains his BABIP. YAY! The Marlins have received all of… a 3WAR player. In return for their best prospect and 3 other prospects.

Matt
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

Yes, a young 3-WAR 2B with 5 years of control would warrant Heaney and 3 other pseudo prospects. Absolutely.

The point of the article is that Gordon is very likely not a 3 WAR 2B going forward.

something something
Guest
something something
1 year 5 months ago

1. 4 years of control, not 5.
2. A 3-WAR player is only a 1-2 WAR upgrade on what they already had.
3. Heaney has a substantial chance of being a good player. Already, this year, he is projected for a prorated 1.5 WAR. As is Barnes (1.8, actually). Being younger, both are more likely to see their value rise substantially than Gordon. Are those projections certain? Of course not.

However, I think it is likely that one out of 4 prospects, two of whom are already, this year, projected to be decent, will eventually be better than decent. So the Marlins traded potentially significant upside for a 1-2 WAR upgrade at 2nd base, in a handful of years in which they seem unlikely to be great contenders. In other words, it still doesn’t make sense.

bob
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bob
1 year 5 months ago

You cannot add 20 points of babip and have his WAR go up by two wins……

something something
Guest
something something
1 year 5 months ago

His WAR in the past year was 3. I used the BABIP as shorthand for “if he really is as good as his performance this past year”. Which, for the record, he isn’t.

Steven
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Steven
1 year 5 months ago

Even if his babip remains high (pushing his wRC+ into the low to mid 90’s), you’re still looking at a player who is a below average defender and with slightly above average offense for the position. With slightly regressed, but higher than the Steamer projection, base running value, you’re still looking at a 2 WAR player. And his babip is far from a guaranteed thing. Remember, this is a guy who as recently as eight months ago who had a -.8 career WAR.

Richie
Guest
Richie
1 year 5 months ago

Good research, Mike. Thank you. :-)

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 5 months ago

The Marlins are just getting the fire sale out of the way early for these guys.

Bat
Guest
Bat
1 year 5 months ago

I can’t help comparing this return for Dee Gordon to the return the A’s received for Josh Donaldson, a guy with 14.1 WAR over the past two years.

Both are essentially 4 for 1 exchanges (setting aside the Dodgers including and paying the entire salary of Dan Haren, who may well retire).

To recap the two trades:

Dodgers get Andrew Heaney (consensus top MLB LHP prospect), Kike Hernandez (useful utility man), Austin Barnes (potential starting catcher but more likely backup), and Chris Hatcher (bullpen piece).

A’s get Brett Lawrie (solid yet injury prone player), Franklin Barreto (rising prospect but not quite at the level of Heaney right now), Kendall Graveman (back-of-rotation guy), Sean Nolin (fringe starter or contributing reliever).

The crazy thing is tha Dee Gordon is a guy with 3.1 WAR last year but -1.4 WAR the two previous years combined while again Donaldson was worth 14.1 WAR the past two years.

Past performance doesn’t necessarily equal performance, that’s for sure, and further Gordon is 2.5 years younger than Donaldson. But still I can’t help comparing these two transactions and thinking that the Dodgers new braintrust of Friedman and Farhan Zaidi made out like bandits while the A’s seem to have gotten shortchanged a bit.

Steven
Guest
Steven
1 year 5 months ago

The A’s seemingly value Lawrie a lot more than as a “solid” player (Steamer projects 3.8 WAR which I think is high but not crazy) and you’re probably underselling Nolin a bit; he’s not great, but he’s very comparable to Graveman as a possible back-end starter. I agree that the Dodgers easily won their trade, but I don’t think the Donaldson deal was a complete disaster (still bad, though).

makeitrayn
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makeitrayn
1 year 5 months ago

Forgetting that the dodgers threw in 12.5 million dollars

jardinero
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jardinero
1 year 5 months ago

“Andrew Friedman is showing he brought his skills over from Tampa.”

Let’s not forget Farhan Zaidi. He’s the GM.

JRoss
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JRoss
1 year 5 months ago

This isn’t a typical Freedman trade. This feels more like a smart, Zaidi trade.

makeitrayn
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makeitrayn
1 year 5 months ago

This is not a freedman trade. He added money that would amount to over 10% of the Rays annual budget.

Jason
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Jason
1 year 5 months ago

That is honestly the worst spelling of Enrique that I’ve ever seen.

SandyK
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SandyK
1 year 5 months ago

With a name like that, you know he’s not Jewish!

Za
Guest
Za
1 year 5 months ago

But very common,

Rick
Guest
Rick
1 year 5 months ago

Per MLBTR: “Whether or not Haren retires, the Dodgers will still pay his $10MM salary as part of the trade, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (Twitter links). L.A. will also cover the projected $2.5MM that Gordon will earn in arbitration. The Marlins plan to use the money from the Dodgers on a first baseman or a starting pitcher.”

If the Marlins can turn Haren’s salary into, say, Justin Masterson, or even the first year of a Brandon McCarthy deal, it starts to look much better for them.

Steven
Guest
Steven
1 year 5 months ago

Heaney is probably worth at least as much as Masterson as a starter, and McCarthy is not signing for 1 yr, $12.5 mil.

Mike
Guest
Mike
1 year 5 months ago

wait, seriously? This deserves a lot more attention. If the Marlins are actually just trading all those guys for Gordon and $10M… well, it’s a very Marlins move, certainly.

indyralph
Member
Member
indyralph
1 year 5 months ago

Just yesterday somebody asked in Dave’s chat when a team would sign a player and just give him and his salary to another team for a prospect. That’s exactly what happened here, despite Haren being signed a year ago. And considering the two teams involved are the most notorious free spenders and the most notorious penny pinchers, Haren’s inclusion is actually not confusing at all.

Some Guy
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Some Guy
1 year 5 months ago

McCarthy signed with Dodgers and Masterson is in Boston now and Santana looks to be headed towards Minnesota….

Pat
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Pat
1 year 5 months ago

Well the lesson here kids is that Dee Gordon is light years better than that scrubby third baseman Josh Donaldson.

How Gordon was flipped for this kind of return is insane. I guess it just goes to show how each team values certain prospects. Maybe Beane loves the guys he got back and guys like Heaney have a high rating but can still bust like anyone else.

Adam
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Adam
1 year 5 months ago

You’re underselling Brett Lawrie. And overvaluing Andrew Heaney. And omitting $12.5 million.

glib
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glib
1 year 5 months ago

I am mortified. If you mix good stat heads and 250M payrolls, that is a weapon of mass destruction. I was hoping for one more WS from my Giants.

KB
Guest
KB
1 year 5 months ago

Yeah, it’s rough to be a Giants fan. Oh well, let me just go see what my Brewers are up to…

glib
Guest
glib
1 year 5 months ago

I am very good at whining.

KCDaveInLA
Guest
KCDaveInLA
1 year 5 months ago

Aren’t you at least a little afraid that there really is a hell?

Matt
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

If the Marlins proprietary valuation system values Gordon as more of a 3.5 to 4 WAR guy and they believe in his improvement, this trade is fine. And I believe that to be very likely.

Maybe a better question what the the fuck is going on with their valuation system?!!

Matt
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

And the same owner famously overpaid for speed once before with the Juan Pierre contract.

Daniel
Member
Daniel
1 year 5 months ago

I think Gordon is getting a little undersold.

He’s going to a ballpark where his offensive production should soar. I would be surprised if he doesn’t hit 20+ triples every season.

Dodgers ballpark did not take advantage of his strengths while Marlins Park does. Could definitely see .300/.340/.400 seasons from him.

Simply giving Steamer projections is not how you evaluate talent. Gordon was a former top prospect who performed well in 2014.

Steven
Guest
Steven
1 year 5 months ago

“Simply giving Steamer projections is now how you evaluate talent.”

Clearly the right way is to make up statistical projections out of nowhere and rely on “he was a top prospect.”

Daniel
Member
Daniel
1 year 5 months ago

I’m not even a Marlins fan, but Gordon clearly has talent. It’s laughable to think Dietrich will be more valuable.

I don’t see any reason why Gordon can’t have a BABIP in the .350-.360 range with the expansive outfield gaps in Marlins Park.

Paper Lions
Guest
Paper Lions
1 year 5 months ago

Well, one reason is that Gordon doesn’t regularly hit the ball hard enough for it to actually travel to that expansive outfield.

Guest
Guest
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

Haha shots fired.

KDL
Guest
KDL
1 year 5 months ago

Exactly this. Despite someone making a version of the “don’t trust Steamer” comment in every comment section…I have yet to see someone back that idea up with anything other than their gut.
Steamer isn’t perfect. (duh) And there may be valuable considerations to make one rethink the Steamer projections. But a whole lot of feelings is not among them.

isavage30
Guest
isavage30
1 year 5 months ago

Gordon’s BABIP in the Steamer projection does seem low low. He’s 26, had one poor year two years ago, didn’t play much at the major league level the year before. I think a lot of the analysis of these trades IS putting too much weight in Steamer. “The Donaldson trade might not be that crazy, because look what Steamer says about Brett Lawrie.” “The trade for Gordon is crazy, because look at Steamer.”Saying that Hernandez is projected at 1.1 WAR/600 is a bit dishonest too, because he’s actually projected at being essentially replacement level (0.1 WAR) in 66 PAs. If you expand that to 600 PA’s, it’s probably more like he’s still replacement level. If the Dodgers were to trade Dee Gordon straight up for Hernandez, that would seem quite crazy.

It doesn’t seem like a great deal for Miami, you’d hope they could’ve given up something less than Heaney, but Gordon WAS a top prospect, and he actually performed quite well last year, and there was nothing crazy in his batting profile that screams fluke, the only thing that was odd was that he walked less than he had in the past. It would seem the only reason this trade’s being looked on as a sure loss for Miami, while the Donaldson/Lawrie trade was looked at as potentially ok for Oakland, is the Steamer projections for Lawrie/Gordon. And both projections don’t seem to make a ton of sense.

isavage30
Guest
isavage30
1 year 5 months ago

Isn’t “making up statistical projections and relying on ‘he was a top prospect'” pretty much the way Heaney’s being held up as valuable? Dee Gordon had the exact same wRC+ as Brett Lawrie last year. And he was healthier.

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
1 year 5 months ago

isavage – You can (and should) use a player’s past prospect rankings as part of an evaluation of that player’s value. The less major league information available (and with Heaney we’ve only got 29 innings) the more stock you should put in prospect rankings. But with Dee Gordon we have 1319 plate appearances; his former prospect status is less important to an evaluation than Heaney’s.

something something
Guest
something something
1 year 5 months ago

Not a real substantive concern, but I feel like you do not understand how rare a 20+ triple season is. Since 1980, there have been 5. There have only been 29 seasons of 15+ triples in the same span of time. Triples=rare. Gordon will not hit more than 20 consistently, if ever.

Daniel
Member
Daniel
1 year 5 months ago

Yeah, 20+ was extreme, but I think 15-20 is still reasonable with his speed and I feel his BA will benefit from the expansive outfield. He just hit 12 triples playing most of his games in Dodger Stadium.

EricR
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

He hit 6 of his 12 at AT&T and Coors, places that turn singles turn into triples.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 5 months ago

you would be surprised if he doesn’t become the most prolific triples hitter since Ty Cobb almost 100 years ago?

this is why we need projections, because most humans just have an awful sense for what a mean projection is.

Daniel
Member
Daniel
1 year 5 months ago

Steamer and many projections tend to regress far too heavily. I understand trying to find the mean and all, but it’s not usually a reasonable forecast. Steamer believes Wilmer Flores will be a more valuable player than Starlin Castro next year. I would deal Flores for Castro in a heartbeat.

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
1 year 5 months ago

Daniel, I always make a similar comment when I see people who are dismissive of the entire methodology used by Steamer (and other projections): If all you need to do is regress less, why don’t you make a better system? Just take Steamer’s projections and add back 10% of last year’s stats. Furthermore, if it’s so easy to improve the projections by just regressing less, why do they regress so much?

Any projection system should be frequently tested to see how effective it is at projecting performance. If Steamer is flawed due to over-regression those flaws will be made clear over time. With all the people who have the data available to check Steamer’s projections I find it unlikely that they have a massive, easily corrected, easily noticed problem like that. But I’m absolutely ready to be convinced if and when that data is made apparent.

James
Guest
James
1 year 5 months ago

20+ triples have been accomplished 7 times since 1950. I don’t think Gordon will be an 8th.

EricR
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

You must surprise very easily since only 10 players have hit 20+ triples in a season since 1940. But I guess it’s possible Gordon could be the next Musial, Mays or Brett (but really even calling him the next Christian Guzman seems a little far-fetched).

Shayce
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Shayce
1 year 5 months ago

Great fantasy trade for the Marlins. They were 27th in SBs this year.

bob
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bob
1 year 5 months ago

lol

sturock
Guest
sturock
1 year 5 months ago

Or those prospects the Dodgers received could all flame out. It really doesn’t matter who wins the Winter Meetings.

CM52
Member
CM52
1 year 5 months ago

Yay let’s never analyze anything! That’s helpful.

mark
Guest
mark
1 year 5 months ago

one of the “prospects” is 29 years old. perhaps we might consider using the old school “minor leaguers” from time to time as not all guys in the minors are created equally.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

Ha! And now the Dodgers flip Andrew Heaney to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. Now, explain THAT one!

zach
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, and $10 million for Kendrick + Hernandez, Barnes, and Hatcher. Brilliant.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

That would be 1 year of Kendrick.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

….and $19.5 M for that 1 year of Kendrick. His 2014 salary plus the $10 M going to the Marlins.

Richie
Guest
Richie
1 year 5 months ago

Yeah, apparently the Dodgers don’t really believe in Heaney either. Or Guerrero. Wow, they sure gave up on him quick.

Giants Dynasty
Guest
Giants Dynasty
1 year 5 months ago

Dodgers lose if they pay Haren’s salary too.

Aduhey
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Aduhey
1 year 5 months ago

Dee Gordon only has one full season. It’s hard to judge him based on that.

Theo
Guest
Theo
1 year 5 months ago

Why do I get the feeling that if Billy Beane made the same move the fangeaphs writers would be talking about how we as an audience underestimate the value of marginal but proven mlb talent.

arc
Guest
1 year 5 months ago

Because you yourself are biased and you project bias onto others as a result.

Theo
Guest
Theo
1 year 5 months ago

I think this is a pretty good PR move for the Marlins. They get a guy with name value who led the nl in steals last year and 12.5 million (potentially) which they can use to acquire another good player. It will make it seem like they are actually spending money this year when they’re actually just being the same old cheap marlins.

Michael
Guest
Michael
1 year 5 months ago

Am I the only one that’s really really hoping the Angels will now trade Heaney back to the Marlins for Haren? Just for the crazy ridiculousness of it..

Henry Short Youth
Guest
Henry Short Youth
1 year 5 months ago

This wasn’t even close to being worse than the Donaldson trade. Or the Moss trade.

Dr. Obvious
Guest
Dr. Obvious
1 year 5 months ago

I think everyone is shorting Gordon’s improving defense & the work he has done to get better defensively. If you look at difference even between him in April & in August – it is a world of difference. I can see him being a plus defender at 2nd.

I also believe the 4.8% walk percentage will be his career low..7-8% is probably will he will end up normally which will make him a solid 3 WIN guy

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
1 year 5 months ago

“I also believe the 4.8% walk percentage will be his career low”

Based on what, exactly?

arc
Guest
arc
1 year 5 months ago

…Belief!

Joel
Guest
Joel
1 year 5 months ago

Not sure about the walk rate, but I agree completely on his defense. Remember he had very little experience at 2nd and (via the eye test) really improved as the season went on. Not saying it was a good trade, but I can easily see him become a top 10 defensive 2nd basemen.

Dave
Guest
Dave
1 year 5 months ago

Where do I apply for the Marlins GM position?

James
Guest
James
1 year 5 months ago

you want to work for Loria?

Steve
Guest
Steve
1 year 5 months ago

I would much rather make the trade the Yankees made for a middle infielder than this one….

Michael
Guest
Michael
1 year 5 months ago

What you’re leaving out is that the Dodgers will pay the Marlins $12 million in the deal that they can then use to acquire another quality player. Don’t knock the deal yet because it isn’t complete. Dee Gordon and a $12 million player makes this a much better deal for the Marlins!

Stank Asten
Guest
Stank Asten
1 year 5 months ago

If Friedman does nothing else this offseason, it would still have been a wild success for getting some value out of Dee Gordon. I still can’t believe this happened.

cappy
Guest
cappy
1 year 5 months ago

$8.4 of the $10 million just went for 1 yr of Latos.

To compare either Dietrich, Solano or Kiki to Gordon is laughable.

cappy
Guest
cappy
1 year 5 months ago

How about 1 yr of Kendrick straight up for Heaney no cash changing hands. Who got taken there?

RT
Guest
RT
1 year 5 months ago

Why are we talking about Dee Gordon and home runs?

Anthony
Guest
Anthony
1 year 5 months ago

This religious adherence to Steamer projections is sad. I mean, do any of you have any reason to believe – other than the fact that the editors at Fangraphs chose to display Steamer projections prominently on each player page – that the projections tend to be accurate over time? Some of you say that critics should provide a better system. But do any of you actually have proof that Steamer is a consistently reliable systme?

I think Steamer provides a useful, valuable data point. However, it is not perfect. Human judgment is needed sometimes. For example, I don’t know if there’s a variable in the equation for “athletic kid who recently switched positions”. Another example, it is frequently stated that UZR needs ~3 years of defensive data to really paint an accurate picture of a defender. Well, we certainly don’t have that, which means we should take Gordon’s projections with a grain of salt. Should GMs simply wait around until we have 3 years of defensive performance before making decisions? Judgment is needed in times like these.

Blindly following what some model spits out is almost as bad as the anti-sabermetrics crowd’s complete reliance on the eye test. We should look at data wholistically and in context.

Marlins Regret
Guest
Marlins Regret
10 months 24 days ago

Well Jeff don’t you feel silly? Heaney has blossomed into an ace. A simple mechanical fix by the Angels and he’s been dominant in his first three big league starts…

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