Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 11/29/11




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Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.

20 Responses to “Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 11/29/11”

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  1. Nick says:

    You’re the name Mike!

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  2. wily mo says:

    neftali feliz is actually 23, not 21, maybe that’s why

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  3. TK says:

    Mike – I appreciate the chats, so take the following observation for constructive criticism…you often refuse to comment on a prospect you haven’t seen. I find this both admirable and annoying. See more guys! Or talk to more of your scout buddies! Or, more practically, stop taking those questions. Your stance may be principled, but it sometimes comes across like you’re ducking the question.

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    • ray says:

      I disagree. Mike has done this since he started the chats, and I like that he won’t comment on a guy, or give someone else’s opinion.

      He’s a scout. Why give an opinion if he hasn’t see him.

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      • TK says:

        Yeah, I’ve been here for all the chats, Ray. I guess I didn’t express my point very well.

        I’m saying it’s admirable that he refuses to say something when he hasn’t seen a guy. It’s admirable, but it also points up the limitations of Fan Graphs coverage in the area of prospect coverage. Fan Graphs is an impressive source of free analysis every bit the equal of the pay site(s), but it doesn’t seem able or willing to bring in somebody who can compete with BP, BA and ESPN on prospects. I kind of thought Newman was going to fill that gap, but it seems pretty clear he’s still a part-timer. And I mean no disrespect to Mike, whose opinion I trust.

        Okay, maybe I’m focusing on what FG can’t do rather than what it does do, but I’m rooting for FG. I want it to be the equal of the bigger sites, and I think that’s within reach. But this is one area in which the difference is glaring.

        IMHO.

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    • Mike Newman says:

      TK,

      I completely understand and may make that adjustment. However, then I run to the problem of people asking 3-4 questions about Blue Jays guys in a chat and then flaming the question box because I didn’t get to their question. It’s a double-edged sword the participant does not see – Especially when I receive the same questions consistently.

      It is easy to say “see more guys”, but in the past year, I’ve continued scouting (on my own dime – no complaints – just pointing that out) through struggling with two mortgages, a brief period of unemployment and the birth of a third child. Fortunately, all of that is worked out now and 2012 will be the first year where I’ll actually have a dedicated scouting budget, albeit a very small one.

      Additonally, one of the biggest misconceptions of scouting is that guys actually get out and see everybody. They don’t. Most just project like they do for effect. For a person with my limitations, I’m actually pretty proud to say I’ve seen 60 or so players in the top-100 at the least.

      You are right in that 2012 needs to be a year where I develop more scouting contacts which is a major reason for my coming over to Fangraphs. Approach a scout with a “Scouting the Sally” business card, and the reaction is mixed. This medium really extends my reach and will hopefully pay dividends which I can then pass onto people like yourself.

      Thanks for your participation and input. It’s definitely something I will look to improve!

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  4. dan says:

    how would you project Duffy and Peacock this year? and which do you prefer in the long term?

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    • Mike Newman says:

      I can’t put my finger on it exactly, but something about Peacock worries me. With him, I really need to see some big league innings before making an assessment. His start in Washington may set unreasonable expectations for 2012.

      As for Duffy, I own him in an A.L. only league and he draws quite a bit of interest. He’s obviously walking too many guys right now, but the strikeout totals/decent FB% leaves me thinking there’s nowhere to go but up.

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  5. Expos67 says:

    What’s your take on Nick Castellanos?

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    • Mike Newman says:

      Haven’t seen him, but inherited Castellanos in an Ottoneu experts league. If I had to assess based on only numbers (which I hate doing), he looks like a guy who is making frequent, hard contact, but hasn’t figured out how to generate the lift needed to hit for power in the professional ranks. Essentially, he’s right where he should be.

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  6. Chris says:

    What would it take for the Cubs to get Justin Smoak from the Mariners?

    I’m hoping Smoak’s struggles were tied to the blister issues he had last year (may need to talk to Moises Alou about how to “prevent” blisters).

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    • Mike Newman says:

      I don’t know why Seattle would deal Smoak unless they make a big splash at first base this off-season. I know many would think he was readily available due to his struggles, but they would be selling extremely low on what was once a very valuable commodity.

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  7. Bob says:

    And Newman, for all his observational opportunities, still suffers from the BA bigotries–namely, the Jim Callis anti-StL hogwash.

    According to Newman (chat of one month ago), StL has had a “dreadful” farm system “for years”.

    I do not misquote. “Dreadful,” he says.

    Name just ONE season, Mr. Newman, in the last decade when the StL system didn’t have *at least* average future MLB producers, and I’ll mail you a crisp $100 bill. Tomorrow. Name it, jagoff.

    Try it, Newman. Whassa matter, don’t like Dan Haren? Or is it Adam Wainwright you aren’t so fond of? Or Yadi Molina, et. al.?

    Somebody like you should be a touch more circumspect before tossing off expressions of blanket contempt…’specially when they’re massively misguided. Because, well, it does tent to undermine one’s credibility.

    Have a nice day.
    Asshole.

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    • Mike Newman says:

      Bob,

      Taking credit for Wainwright when he came from another organization at the AAA level is not exactly a chest thumping moment.

      If you are asking for me to name a year when the Cardinals didn’t have guys in their top-10 who projected as average regulars, I should NOT be able to name them. You are talking about the top-10 prospects in an organization where MOST should project as regulars at the least. The problem is that potential impact talents haven’t been in the organization on the whole.

      When the Cardinals have is that 3-4 players in their top-10 are generally relievers mixed with older prospects like a Freese or Craig who have extremely limited upside and shorter shelf lives, then they will be dinged for a lack of upside talent and deservedly so.

      Additionally, if you have read my chats as closely as you read that statement, you would have also read the following;

      1. I do not have the opportunity to scout Cardinals prospects where I live – Info I receive comes from contacts. Hopefully that will change next season as I hope to his spring training.

      2. My “opportunities” come from my own time and wallet. One of the misconceptions now that I’m writing at Fangraphs is that I do this for a living, or have a budget for that matter.

      3. I’m a family man first and happy father of three. When I have to log off because my wife is shooting me evil eyes at McDonald’s, it’s because it’s true.

      Hopefully my son, soon to be 5, doesn’t run a Google search when he starts to understand baseball to check out some of my work and see your comment. I’m all for criticism and love writing for such an intelligent audience who keeps me on my toes, but I didn’t really see the intelligence in that post.

      Add to this the general pressure of managing upwards of 3-500 people in a chat at any one time, along with pounding through over 100 questions of varying degrees of difficulty pretty much every week, and taking one word from 3-months worth of chats is really a silly exercise.

      Next time, why not point out the players I failed to consider in a constructive fashion and start a conversation with the Fangraphs audience? We’d all learn much more from a respectful discussion.

      Thanks for the backhanded apology BTW.

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  8. Bob says:

    I want to apologize, Newman. Your ignorance in no way justifies my overheated rudeness.

    I’m sorry.

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