More Suitors for Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre might very well be the best remaining free agent, but at this point he doesn’t have many clear suitors. Last week, after we heard light rumors that the Angels were taking a step back, Matthew explored some other possible fits. One of those bit the dust yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal reports that the A’s have removed themselves from the picture. While the Angels, despite the rumors, remain the favorites to sign Beltre, there is one other team that I can see making a run.
Toronto Blue Jays
As the Blue Jays move closer and closer to contention, we’re going to see them connected to more and more top-tier free agents. Beltre would be a nice fit with the team now and in the future. He’d provide the defense that the team just doesn’t have at third base, and his bat would fit well into the lineup.
Wait just a second. Didn’t the Blue Jays lead the majors in third baseman WAR? Why, yes they did. But that’s all Jose Bautista, who produced 6.9 WAR. Edwin Encarnacion was the next highest scorer at 1.8 WAR. Neither Bautista nor Encarnacion rates well defensively at third, so Beltre would provide an upgrade there. He’d also add another potent bat to the lineup. Imagine if the Blue Jays trotted this out on Opening Day:
1. Yunel Escobar, SS
2. Adrian Beltre, 3B
3. Adam Lind, 1B
4. Jose Bautista, RF
5. Vernon Wells, CF
6. Travis Snider, LF
7. Random DH Guy, DH
8. Aaron Hill, 2B
9. J.P. Arencibia, C
(You can rearrange as you see fit, but this is a strong lineup that could get even stronger with a suitable DH.)
With a little progress from Snider and bounce backs from Lind and Hill this could be an even better offense than in 2010 — and that’s even assuming a much lesser season from Bautista. Defensively the team is sound if not good. Add that to a young and good pitching staff, and you have a dark horse candidate in the AL East.
In terms of payroll, Baseball Reference has the Jays at $78.8 million right now, which is right around their level from last season. If they sign Beltre and a DH (Manny Ramirez?), they can still probably keep the payroll around $100 million. Whether they’re willing to do that is another story. But if they do, I wouldn’t count them out of the AL East hunt at all.
The Angels still have to remain the favorites, despite what’s rumbling in the rumor mill. The Blue Jays, though, could certainly make a surprise run. There are also a few other teams that could use Beltre, but for some reason or another — for most it’s payroll — I can’t see it happening.
St. Louis: Matthew mentioned them, and as a pure fit I agree. Beltre would help shore up some uncertainty at third base, and would also help fulfill GM John Mozeliak’s prediction that the the Cardinals will be a “good defensive club, if not better,” in 2011. But they’re already at $111.7 million in payroll this year. Looking ahead, if they pay Albert Pujols $25 million next year and pick up options for Chris Carpenter and Yadier Molina they’re looking at $110 million committed to nine players in 2012 (including Beltre at roughly $15 million). I don’t think that’s going to fly.
Chicago AL: In the same way as the Cardinals, the White Sox are getting up there in payroll. B-R has them at $119.3 million, which is right around their all-time high of $121 million (2008). After signing Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko they appear tapped out, but signing Beltre could help shore up a position of relative weakness — they ranked 28th in third baseman WAR last season. But with the payroll situation they’ll probably use a combination of Mark Teahen, Brent Morel, and Dayan Viciedo to fill the spot.
Florida: The Fish are already up at around $80 million in payroll, so it’s doubtful that they’ll add another penny. But a starting eight of Beltre, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez, Chris Coghlan, Logan Morrison, John Buck, and Omar Infante could make some waves in 2011.
Milwaukee: They’re going all in, and Beltre would be an upgrade over Casey McGehee. But it appears that Milwaukee’s sights are on 2011 and 2011 only at this point. I’m not sure they’d want to add that much payroll to future years without seeing first how this one goes.
Texas: Another team mentioned by Matthew, the Rangers could play Beltre at third and move Michael Young to DH. Whether that’s an optimal use of resources, though, is another question. They can probably afford the payroll bump, since they’re right around last year’s payroll level currently.
Even stick Encarnacion in the random DH spot for now with the Jays, and that is an impressive line-up. EE did hit 21 HR’s last year. If the Jays did sign Manny, you are looking at a formidable bench of EE, Rajai Davis, Johnny Mac and Jose Molina, with decent talent and reclamation projects (Corey Patterson) in the minors.
It seems to me EE was born to DH. Maybe, maybe, they can see if he can play somewhere in the outfield or first base, but under no circumstances should he be at third. Especially on that weird turf/grass/carpet/synthetic wool surface they play on in Toronto.
Yeah, when the Jays signed EE it was as a DH/1B. So, I think he is worst case scenario at 3B or occasional fill in.
“that weird turf/grass/carpet/synthetic wool surface they play on in Toronto”
Did you read that Rogers? There is new tech that allows grass to be used in domes (see Montréal Impact vs AC Milan in the Olympic Stadium last summer). Please please please spend some money and give us some grass.
the cardinals have david freese and im pretty sure are sticking with him
Agree, the cost savings is just too much. And they have Zack Cox waiting in the wings.
Just playing devils advocate, there has been talk (which as a Cards fan I’m all for) of moving Cox to 2B. Also, if they are thinking they can’t sign Albert and looking into trading him to the Angels for Trout and Morales, they will free up 16M this year and probably 25+ next year (minus Morales salary). This is completly possible if they are seriously considering trading him.
What would the Cards do with Freese is what I want to know. Plus it doesn’t sound like a defensive team with glass-kneed Lance Berkman playing left.
Let’s see-trade him or keep him for depth. Beltre would be a huge upgrade in the sense that he’s pretty likely to take the field 140-150 games. Beltre’s going to require a long term commitment that I don’t think the Cardinals will make. Freese has not one but two ankles made of glass, both surgically repaired. Who knows how that’s going to turn out? Beltre fits the team, but he doesn’t fit their payroll.
I would love to see Beltre as a Mariner again. Anybody want to trade for Figgins?
You know who doesn’t want to see Adrian Beltre as a Mariner again? Adrian Beltre.
epic wins
Toronto does make sense, but I view them as being in the same boat as Texas. They don’t really *need* Beltre and they probably both view signing one of the many available DH’s to a one year contract as a much more cost effective option. The Angels really are the only fit. I think Boras is trying to start one of his classic one-team bidding wars. The Angels seem to recognize their relative position of power in this since they are in no rush to sign him.
Nice idea, but this would mean the Jays giving up a first-round draft pick to the Red Sox, in what is supposed to be a banner year for amateur talent. That in itself might be enough to quash the Jays’ interest. The Jays would also be buying relatively high on Beltre’s ages-32 to 36 (or 37) seasons. And Beltre, while good, has been inconsistent (with OPS+ ranging from 83 to 163 over the last half dozen seasons). Lastly, the team has a few potential internal 3B options for 2012 and beyond in Hill, Lawrie and Escobar (with Hechavarria taking over at short).
Hard to see it happening.
Brett Lawrie does not approve of this article.
Brett Lawrie doesn’t approve of a lot of things.
Funny thing is, Yankees Replacement Level blog has a cairo projection with Blue jays winning only 74 games. That sounded way off to me.
As a Mets fan, although I know this doesn’t make sense given the state of the team, I’d love to see beltre at 3d. Although the Mets have a damn fine 3b. Although, given his last 2 year’s uzr, I wonder if maybe he couldn’t maybe move to 2b. But for the injury risk, I’d like to see how that’s work out. Doesn’t make much sense in a lot of ways, but it just was a thought about somehow filling the 2b slot and adding another fine player. I doubt Beltre wants to play at Citifield much more than going back to safeco.
I’d have to say absolutely no chance with the White Sox. Can’t figure out why that keeps getting put out there (#hotf*ckingstove). They aren’t going to overpay a Boras guy, and it would totally defeat the purpose of paying guys like Viciedo and Teahen. If they wanted him badly, why wouldn’t they have gotten him last year?
It gets put out there because he would be a huge upgrade over any of those guys. As pointed out, the White Sox were 28th in 3B WAR last eyar with a not much different set of guys. His defense is superior to any of them and while his bat has ahd some off years, it’s probably superior to any of them right now.
Having seen Morel “hit,” Viciedo “field” and Teahan “play baseball” (for lack of better terms) I don’t think any of them are the long term answer at 3B. Vicieado is a 1B/DH and the other two are utility players unless Morel develops.
So as a White Sox fan I’d love to see it happen, after all, it’s not my money.
But, yeah, you’re right. Boras aside, I don’t see the White Sox adding $10M – 15M a year for 3 years or more and I don’t think they could get him that cheap anyway.
Signing Beltre might have made sense if the Jays wanted to field their most competitive team. But if they were going for it, they would have kept Marcum instead of trading him to Milwaukee. Doesn’t make much sense to trade Marcum, sign Beltre, and then give up a draft pick in the process.
Oh, I don’t know about that. They can trade a Marcum away because they have a tree in their back yard. It is a pitching tree. They pick one, hope he’s ripe, and put him in the correct spot on the staff, and off they go.
Or they sort through others trash or medical waste, put them on the tree, and see if they turn back into tasty fruit.
In all seriousness, the Jays have always been able to find the pitching they need, in all kinds of places. I think they made that trade because they really wanted that Lawrie guy in their organization. You have to give to get.
Look I think it was a good move to trade Marcum. But as good as those prospects are, for 2011, it’s pretty tough to argue that they’d outpitch Marcum. I don’t want to waste a year of Beltre or some other FA when they aren’t likely to compete.
I think the Jays best shot to compete is next season. What I’d like to see the Jays do is sign Fielder/DeJesus next season if they’re available. Cause then you’re looking at:
LF DeJesus
SS Escobar
1B/DH Fielder
3B Bautista
RF Snider
CF Wells
1B/DH Lind
2B Hill
C Arencibia
To me, that team is a hell of a lot stronger than a team with Beltre. You still have to give up the picks, but you’re doing it when the Jays prospects have some MLB experience, and we have a better idea of what to expect from Drabek/Arencibia/Hill/Lind/Snider etc. And like you said, the pitching tree will have replaced Marcum for 2012, rather than being forced to do it in 2011.
Seriously? DeJesus > Beltre??? And since you’ve got both Snider and Bautista at their worse positions to accommodate DeJesus over Beltre, you’re basically saying DeJesus >>> Beltre. Absurd.
Your premise is ridiculous. The Jays wouldn’t be signing Beltre to a one year deal, he’d be around for 2012 and beyond, when you’re suggesting we’d be contenders.
I never said DeJesus is better than Beltre so I have no idea what you’re talking about..
Great analogy, I’m not going to say lol, but I did laugh out loud
Joe:
Did Scott Boras promise you a cut of his commission to write this article? Now we have the media and internet writers helping Mr. Boras manufacture his non-existent “mystery” teams who are all allegedly clamoring to sign his clients.
In an offseason review I wanted the Jays to shore up bullpen (negative, sorry Dotel), take a run at Greinke (damn, so close) and add Beltre (would be a great move, still hopeful I can go 1/3!).
A pen of Dotel/Frasor/Camp/Villanueva/Purcey/Janssen/Carlson could be worse. If we had a good closer as an anchor (McGowan? *fingers crossed*), it’d be in the top 5 in the AL. Substitute Rzepczynski for Carlson if he’s not the 5th starter and we’ve got a good long man to take Tallet’s former role.
Grienke? Meh, kinda overrated, and the Royals obviously wanted more ML-ready players than we had to give, just like the Marlins wanted for Uggla.
I’m fine with the Beltre idea, as we don’t have any 3B in the organization within 3 years of making any sort of impact. If the Angels don’t sign Soriano, it would make this scenario even better, as we’d be guaranteeing ourselves LAA’s 2nd rounder for Downs. Giving our first rounder to Boston would suck, but we’ve got a bunch of draft picks coming already, and our farm can afford the hit.
Boras OR Bust, baby!
Beltre will get his $12Mill plus per year………one or two years w/ a mutual option for year three.
“Florida: The Fish are already up at around $80 million in payroll”
This can’t be true. I’m seeing that their payroll will be around 55 next year.
Yeah, you’re right. They’re at $42 million for 9 players now, but even with sizable raises to Nunez and Sanchez they probably won’t get over $60 million all said. I guess B-R was a bit off on that one.
I like the Marlins or the Dodgers. Both have a spot available and could be construed to have room in the payroll. Both have teams that are nearly good enough that the addition of Beltre could really improve their chances.
I’ve mentioned previously that the obvious fit for Beltre, and the club that would make him and Boras happy, is the Red Sox — next winter.
If the Brewers are going all in this year, a one-year deal would make sense for everyone. If Beltre has somewhat of an off year, he can probably still sign with the Red Sox at the same AAV he could extract from the Angels now. If he has any kind of real good year, his market position is even stronger, and the Sox will give him the kind of contract he was dreaming of before they traded for Gonzalez and mucked up his plans. The Brewers get a year of Beltre at a fair price in their limited window to win it all, and give up the 74 pick this year for something like the 32 and 38 next year.
I’d love to see Beltre sign with the Jays. With the Rays down slightly next year and the Yanks missing out on Lee and looking at Pettitte’s possible retirement, they have an opportunity similar to that of the Brewers. Now might be the time to go all-in and a Beltre signing would be a huge step in that direction.
I’d argue that the Jays would be better off putting Bautista at third. He’s probably slightly below-average both in right and at third, but third base is a far more valuable position. I believe the positional adjustment is about equivalent to a full win. So, if one agrees that Bautista is about equal a defender at third & in right, signing Beltre would essentially diminish the Jays by a full win elsewhere on the diamond, as well as reducing their flexibility and costing them a first round draft pick.
This is why I find it so odd that Bautista is so insistent on wanting to play RF. If I were him, I’d want to be at third. His value, as you mentioned, would immediately increase just because of the positional adjustment, plus given that range is his issue in the outfield, he might even be an adequate defender if he moved. Plus, as an infielder, I would imagine his value would increase as a free agent.
I’d say that the blue jays are the best bet on this one (besides the angels). I think they payroll currently is lower then 78 million (see cots contracts), and all the other teams have an obstacle:
CHW – Payroll
Stl – Payroll + Freese
Tex – Young
Mil – Casey + Mat Gamel
Flo – Payroll could be an obstacle, but I think 80 mil is a high projection. The main problem is most likely matt dominguez waiting in the wings