New Pitcher Value Stats

The Value (WAR) section for pitchers has been updated to help further break out a pitcher’s value. These stats are now available in the leaderboards and player pages.

We’ve added the following stats:

RA9-Wins – Wins above replacement calculated with RA9. This is both park adjusted and league adjusted.

BIP-Wins – Wins above average based on BABIP. This is both park and league adjusted.

LOB-Wins – Sequencing (and miscellaneous) wins above average calculated as RA9Wins – WAR – BIPWins.

FDP-Wins (Fielder Dependent Wins) – This is the full difference between RA9Wins and WAR, or BIPWins + LOBWins.

WAR – Wins Above Replacement remains unchanged.

Dave Cameron will have two posts with more details about these new stats at 9:00am and 10:00am and will be answering questions during his 12:00pm chat.

The full formula for BIP-Wins is:

((((H-HR)*(w1B * p1B + w2B * pxBH) ) / (TBF – HR – BB – HBP – SO)) – lgwBABIP) * (TBF – HR – BB – HBP – SO) / PF / RtW * -1

p1B = singles as a percentage of hits that are not home runs
pxBH = doubles and triples as a percentage of hits that are not home runs
w1B = linear weight value of a single
w2B = linear weight value of a double
RtW = runs to wins converter
PF = park factor
lgwBABIP = league average: ((H-HR)*(w1B * p1B + w2B * pxBH)) / (TBF – HR – BB – HBP – SO)



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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


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Tyler
Guest
Tyler
3 years 8 months ago

head explode

Graham
Guest
Graham
3 years 8 months ago

Wouldn’t “percentage of singles that are not home runs” and “percentage of doubles and triples that are not home runs” be 100% in every case?

Are we to assume those two definitions should mean “percentage of hits that are not home runs” and “percentage of extra base hits that are not home runs?”

odditie
Member
odditie
3 years 8 months ago

Any update on Quality Start data being added :)

James Gentile
Member
3 years 8 months ago

FDP-Wins rules, QS drools.

NatsFan73
Member
NatsFan73
3 years 8 months ago

QS drools, but I don’t see any fantasy sites using FDP any time soon. So.

James Gentile
Member
3 years 8 months ago

This is the day your life will surely change.

andys
Guest
andys
3 years 8 months ago

Great work, but why not allow other versions of WAR too? Why not have, say, SIERAWAR, xFIPWAR, etc.? I think these metrics are VASTLY overdue.

James Gentile
Member
3 years 8 months ago

I think the idea is to keep WAR strictly to measuring things that actually occurred, rather than involving regressions.

andys
Guest
andys
3 years 8 months ago

xFIP is based strictly to things that occurred. There are only three variables – BB, K, and FB. The difference is you’re using FB instead of HR.

James Gentile
Member
3 years 8 months ago

OK sure, but it’s intended to be a regressed HR rate. You are assigning run values of HR (that have not necessarily occurred) to 11% of the pitcher’s FB%, rather than actual HR allowed.

andys
Guest
andys
3 years 8 months ago

But there’s still no regression happening. It’s just treating all fly balls the same, in the same way that FIP treats all non-HR balls the same.

FIP: HR balls, non HR balls each are being treated as the only two groups of contact.
xFIP: Fly balls, non-fly balls each are being treated as the only two groups of contact.

I fail to see the difference.

Tangotiger
Guest
Tangotiger
3 years 8 months ago

FIP is agnostic on what happens to fieldable balls. That’s because FIP only cares about non-fieldable PA. Just like OBP is agnostic on HR and 3B being different from 1B.

xFIP is agnostic on the actual outcome of a flyball. If you find that valuable, then fine. I don’t.

themiddle54
Member
themiddle54
3 years 8 months ago

Since workload informs WAR to a large degree, would be great if the Value tab included IP. I find it handy to look at that stat when putting into context in my brain how/why a certain pitcher is valuable.

James Gentile
Member
3 years 8 months ago

you can create your own table with whichever stat you desire including IP with the custom tables feature.

paranoiaagent
Member
paranoiaagent
3 years 8 months ago

any idea when these will be available in the dashboard stat customizer?

Anon
Guest
Anon
3 years 8 months ago

Excellent additions.

My vote for the next stats on Fangraphs is for stats that consider quality of opposition.

Will
Guest
Will
3 years 8 months ago

For RA/9, don’t you think it would make sense to somehow adjust for runners left on base after the pitcher leaves that subsequently score? RA seems to give credit for pitchers on teams with good bullpens.

Tangotiger
Guest
Tangotiger
3 years 8 months ago

You are totally correct.

Better than using RA9 is RE24 (already on Fangraphs, and already park-adjusted). For a pitcher that completes his own innings, then RE24 and RA9 are identical.

As best as I understand it, since RE24 is only available for a good deal, but not all, of baseball history, then RA9 was chosen.

But, I think it’s a matter of time until David will update his code to use RE24 when available.

YanksFanInBeantown
Guest
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 8 months ago

Is RE24 just the best stat for everything?

Tangotiger
Guest
Tangotiger
3 years 8 months ago

Not “everything”. No such thing.

If you have decided you want to use something actual-runs-based, then yes, RE24 is what you should prefer.

Nathan Nathan
Member
Nathan Nathan
3 years 8 months ago

Thanks for the formula. Might we see a MathJax formatted equation as well? It would make it a lot easier to read, I think.

AustinRHL
Member
AustinRHL
3 years 8 months ago

Ooh. I like these! I assume that in due time, these statistics will be available to add to our customized dashboards?

Snowblind
Guest
Snowblind
3 years 8 months ago

I have no idea what a “good” number for any of these are. Is that going to vary wildly pitcher to pitcher? Year to year? Something else?

For example, I have a pretty good idea of the talent level and contribution of a 0 WAR player, or a 2 WAR player, or a 5 WAR player. I have a rough idea of the skill range of a guy with a 3.00 FIP, or a .320 OBP, or a RC+ of 100.

What the heck is a “good” number for FDP, RA9-Wins, or any of the other shiny new stats?

TFINY
Member
TFINY
3 years 8 months ago

I believe that 0 is the baseline; at 0 FDP, the pitcher is performing precisely as his WAR dictates, when taking into account BABIP and LOB. Any positive number will make him better than his WAR declares.

Tangotiger
Guest
Tangotiger
3 years 8 months ago

RA9-wins is on the same scale as WAR.

FDP and its subcomponents (LOB-wins and BIP-wins) are centered around 0 being average.

noseeum
Guest
noseeum
3 years 8 months ago

I’m sure cursing is not generally appreciated on the boards here, so I apologize in advance. But it must be said:
This is fucking awesome.

wpDiscuz