Newman’s Own: Best First Basemen of 2012
Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). Additionally, I’ll do my best to rank based on notes/video from the park and avoid adjusting for statistics after the fact. Keep this in mind when working through the lists and understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.
Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
With names like Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez manning first base at the major league level, prospect followers generally assume the minor league crop of first sackers includes the next wave of impact performers. Nothing could be further from the truth. As evidenced by this list, it’s actually the thinnest position I’ve seen from a prospect standpoint this season. Hence, the inclusion of two second base prospects, a third base prospect and outfield prospect who project to move at some point.
1. Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
I’ve mentioned previously that Alonso has one of my favorite all-time prospect swings. After seeing him late in 2011 while a member of the Louisville Bats, I was pleased to see a leaner version of the young first baseman this past spring in Arizona. And while his 2012 will produce the WAR of an above average regular, statistical indicators point to current production being his floor. I fully expect his OPS to eclipse the .800 mark next season which should allow him to settle in as a 3+ win player — surprisingly stellar considering three wins is good enough to rank amongst the top ten first baseman in baseball this season.
2. Stefen Romero, Seattle Mariners (2B)
As indicated in the position introduction, compiling a full list of first base prospects worth mentioning requires a bit of finagling. The first of these positional movers is Mariners Stefan Romero. Across two levels in 2012, Romero combined for a .352/.391/.599 triple slash line while proving his hot first half was much more than California League magic. Against Chattanooga in the Southern League playoffs, I came away impressed with his bat speed and natural strength. A physical, but certainly not graceful player, Romero is unlikely to stick at second base long term, so why not first? If he can play second base, third base or left field in a pinch, even better. At some point, Romero is likely to force the Mariners hand.
3. Hunter Morris, Milwaukee Brewers
The left-handed hitter had a huge year in Double-A with a .303/.357/.563 triple slash line playing for his hometown Huntsville Stars. Morris has excellent bat speed and impressive power potential, but his swing-and-miss tendencies are a bit concerning. Improved plate discipline would help tighten Morris’ strike zone judgment, but one has to wonder if a player with three years of major college baseball and 1500+ professional plate appearances has much room for growth in that area if it hasn’t improved already. Additionally, Morris is downright bad defensively so the bat will have to carry him.
4. Nicky Delmonico, Baltimore Orioles (2B)
To my surprise, the Orioles organization did their best to turn Nicky Delmonico into an offensive-minded second baseman. By July, Delmonico was back where he belonged defensively. In game action. Delmonico presented above average bat speed and plate discipline, as well as an average hit tool and power. On defense, his hands were hard, but the Orioles wanting to challenge him defensively means they saw enough agility to push the envelope. The sum of the parts is unlikely to equal an impact talent, but Delmonico does possess a balanced set of skills not completely dissimilar to the leading man on this list.
5. Neftali Soto, Cincinnati Reds
At 23, Neftali Soto has accomplished enough to suggest he’ll be a big leaguer in some capacity. And while it will never be starting first baseman of the Cincinnati Reds for as long as Joey Votto is healthy, the near guarantee of major league service time holds a significant amount of weight considering the remainder of this list includes only two players with time above Single-A baseball (Poythress, Terdoslavich). In 2012, his .245/.313/.400 triple slash line was underwhelming, but his walk and strikeout rates were actually better than his breakout 2011. A bounceback 2013 may be in order.
6. Matt Skole, Washington Nationals (3B)
Over the past couple of years, I’ve had the chance to see Skole a handful of times between Georgia Tech and Hagerstown. Early in 2012, I could not help but notice how Skole’s physique had transformed into a true pro body. In game action, he slugged a long home run to centerfield, walked and booted a routine ground ball — a seemingly typical day based on his .291/.426/.559 triple slash line and my familiarity with his defense. As a 5th round pick, the Nationals have a steal in Skole, but don’t mistake his lofty numbers at an advanced age for true impact talent.
7. Harold Riggins, Colorado Rockies
To open the 2012 season, I found myself in Asheville watching a physically imposing first baseman field balls with quite a bit more grace than I was expecting. In batting practice, he flashed power and then belted a double in game action off the right field fence. That player was Harold Riggins, a seventh round pick out of North Carolina State University. Riggins strikes out too much, but his .302/.388/.546 triple slash line has me wondering if he’s a bit of a late bloomer. Unfortunately, we’re unlikely to learn much from Riggans in the California League, leaving Double-A as the big test.
8. Larry Greene, Philadelphia Phillies (OF)
Maybe I’m being too hard on Greene, but I was shocked by his lack of agility and all-around tools. Sure, he has some power, but it’s an extremely long swing path which left me wondering how much contact he’s going to make against quality breaking pitches. Ranking a guy like Greene against a number of college players is difficult considering the age difference, but I trust the hit tool of Skole and the overall athleticism of Riggins more than I do Greene. In 2013, I’ll receive a July look at Lakewood and will be eager to reassess and see if the profile works better than for me than it did initially.
9. D.J. Hicks, Minnesota Twins
In ranking Hicks over more established names, I’m going out on a limb a bit. However, Hicks has more raw power than most of the players on this list. In game action, I watched Hicks drop an absolute bomb to right-center field after putting on a show in batting practice. He’s a three outcomes player who struck out too much, but the ball explodes off Hicks’ bat. Plus, he should continue to draw free passes at a reasonable clip going forward. I pretty much know what the players below Hicks are in the end. I’m not 100% sure about Hicks, so he receives the benefit of the doubt in this instance.
10. Rich Poythress, Seattle Mariners
Now 25, Poythress’ second time through the Southern League was considerably more fruitful than the first. With a .304/.404/.439 triple slash line, he may wind up surfacing as a bench player at some point at the big league level. His transition from California League masher (.265 ISO) to Southern League spray hitter (.135 ISO) has been interesting on paper, but the on-field profile is more along the lines of quality organizational player at this point.
11. Joey Terdoslavich, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Similar to Poythress in some respects, Terdoslavich tanked at Triple-A before posting “tweener” numbers in the Southern League. For an organization relatively void of hitting prospects, Terdoslavich received much more publicity than he should have after his 2011 season. I know Braves fans are desperate to find organizational answers for Chipper Jones retiring, as well as outfield help, but Terdoslavich is not that guy.
12. William Beckwith, Atlanta Braves
Another Braves farmhand who appears better than he is due to the lack of punch surrounding him in the lineup, Beckwith enjoyed being the best bat on the Rome Braves. For a big man, Beckwith has surprising athleticism and I commend him for leaning up this season. However, he still has plenty of work to do to be considered a legit prospect within the organization as he presents with a long swing and fringe average defensive ability at best.
I can’t wait for “Hulet’s Borrowed Opinions from in front of a computer screen” list of the Best First baseman of 2012.
So you didn’t see Matt Adams during his brief foray into the bigs? Surely he’d rank ahead of several of these guys, even with elbow (but non-TJ) surgery.
I was wondering the same thing
“The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season.” No mention of guys watched on TV, so Adams doesn’t make the cut.
To this point, can we know how many of the prospects at each position you saw who WOULD make the cut? You may have seen only 20 1B for all we know. Then we can get a better idea of why, after you were disappointed by Greene, that he still is #8 on your list.
DD,
I’m listing everybody at each position who I thought was worth a flip. If I’m not mentioning them, it’s because it would be a waste of words.
Wilmer Flores could eventually end up at 1B (if Ike Davis indeed gets traded).
I saw plenty of Flores in 2010-2011, but not this year. If he were being ranked, I’d include him in the 3B list. I thought he could handle it then and probably still could considering his time at 2B this season.
yeah I’m sure he could handle 3B but I was speculating on a scenario in which the Mets re-sign Wright and deal Ike. That prob means Duda gets the first crack at 1B but Wilmer is probably the fallback if he hits enough and a nice compliment given that he hits RHed.
Baseball America ranked Hunter Morris as the best defensive first baseman in the Southern League, according to this article. Seems like a pretty wide difference in opinion between them and you.
He was rated as one of the worst first basemen in the minors last year. I had heard that he improved some this year, but BA seems to put a lot of value on things such as fielding % instead of range. Hes never going to be a plus defender, but maybe he can be average.
Obviously, Baseball America can rank as how they see fit. When I see a first baseman take multiple days of infield practice, boot every third ball and show limited range, I’m not going to call him the best defensive anything. One scout in attendance even threw a DH tag on Morris to be honest.
Baseball America isn’t “ranking as they see fit” — their rankings are determined by voting from the managers in the league.
I presume those guys have seen Morris take more than a couple of infield practices.
dirtbag,
You have the right to decide whether or not my opinion on players holds any weight. As much as I respect the professional playing careers of managers in the various leagues, I’ve found they like and have nice things to say about everybody. It does not surprise me at all that they like and have nice things to say about Hunter Morris. It would surprise me if they didn’t.
Hunter Morris – any relation to Hal Morris? Both hail from Alabama and are approximately the same size. (Yes, Morris is a common name.)
I don’t think so.
Did you happen to see Jesus Aguilar? If so, what were your impressions of him and his future prospects?
No, Indians prospects are difficult gets for me considering my geographic location. I might venture into the Carolina League to get Lindor next season though. He’d be worth a longer trip.
Mike,
I have read that Hunter Morris has improved his defense as the year went on as opposed to last year where I believe a scout was quoted as him being “one of the worst 1st basemen hes ever seen”. When did you see him and did you hear any credence to a defensive improvement?
Thanks
I wouldn’t have any frame of reference for Morris, but he was a below average defensive first baseman. I give him credit for working hard as he took more infield practice than most guys I see. My look was in July.
“…a 3+ win player — surprisingly stellar considering three wins is good enough to rank amongst the top ten first baseman in baseball this season.”
Since a 2.0 win player is “average”, is 3.0 wins as Top 10 at a position really that surprising? Maybe someone can look at the historic variation in WAR by first basemen?
Not really my thing. I’d rather spend that time at a park, editing video, or writing. I’ll leave the research to people at FanGraphs who love research. When looking into Alonso, I was surprised a player of his skill set would close to a top-10 first baseman considering the expectations of the position.
Hi Mike,have you ever seen yankees 1B prospect Bird and if so what’s your opinion on him?
No, I’ll see Bird next season when he’s in the South Atlantic League.
Poythress is an interesting character. Came up with good-looking power and a strikeout problem, then seemingly forgot how to hit dingers on the move up to Jackson… but started slowly improving the batting eye at the plate. Walks climbing, strikeouts falling, until this year: one and a half times as may walks as strikeouts. During one stretch he posted a Bonds-ian 18 walks to 5 strikeouts over a three-week period… and only then did he turn on the power, hitting 5 of his six home runs between August 1 and the end of the season. To me this smells of a swing being rebuilt from the ground up: first the eye, then the power. Hm. He’s someone to keep an eye on.
Against legit prospects on the Jackson team (Zunino, Romero, Miller), Poythress didn’t stack up. Advanced plate discipline is nice, but he’s 25 playing against younger competition. He should be better at it to be honest. My issues were with the athleticism and frame. He already has “old man skills” with a body I don’t think will mature very well.
Any ideas on Jonathan Griffin? He has a relatively high K rate, but he looks like he can square up the ball and gets on base pretty well. Big fella with serious pop…
So in your introduction, I guess it sounds like you didn’t have a chance to see Jonathan Singleton?