Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 8/1/14

11:42

Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everyone! Happy August. Looking forward to answering some questions. Be with you at the top of the hour!

11:54

Nicholas Minnix: Apologize for the delay because of the erroneous code post, folks! Be with you shortly!

12:00
Comment From Elias
Thoughts on Kennys Vargas and Anthony Ranaudo?

12:03
Nicholas Minnix: Vargas is only a touch interesting, a lot of unknown before we can tell if he could be a regular, but seems unlikely. Age and level suggest that he has quite a mountain to climb to become one, though. Fantasy, has a small chance to be an AL-only guy.
Ranaudo, nothing about him truly excites me. Could be great stuff, seems likelier to be good in short bursts rather than as starter … not big on very tall pitchers, generally speaking.

12:03
Comment From Kris
Just dropped Hosmer… will i regret it at all? Now saying he could be out 6 weeks.

12:03

Nicholas Minnix: Doubtful that you will.

12:03
Comment From Bobo
Who’s a better stash for late season SP help: Derek Holland or Michael Pineda?

12:04

Nicholas Minnix: Holland, if you’re going that deep

12:04
Comment From Art Vandelay
In your opinion, was that the last start Cliff Lee ever makes?

12:04

Nicholas Minnix: Man, I’m concerned, but not going there yet.

12:04
Comment From Delusional Twinkie
Brandon Poulson – the second coming of Nolan Ryan

12:04
Comment From Elias
Time to get sucked in by Nolan Reimold once again?

12:05

Nicholas Minnix: LOL – yes! Inasmuch as you can afford to devote the space to him and find someone else as soon as he disappoints you.

12:05
Comment From Ruben Amaro Jr.
So about that trade deadline….

12:05

Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, let’s hear it. ???

12:05
Comment From Jeet
Thoughts on Jay Bruce ROS?

12:06

Nicholas Minnix: It has the makings of a lost season for Bruce, obviously. I wouldn’t trade him, though, likely, because I’d be more comfortable sticking with him and seeing if he has a resurgent month-plus before I was desperate for anything useful. BUT it totally depends on your needs.

12:06

Nicholas Minnix: And position

12:06
Comment From Janak
How much better ROS do you think Pineda will be over tai walker? I have limited moves and am debating if this is one worth making.

12:07

Nicholas Minnix: Better? I think it’s the other way around. No matter where they are, pretty much, I’m more confident in Walker, just likelihood that he stays healthy.

12:07
Comment From Guest
What impact will moving to the Tigers have on Price?

12:07

Nicholas Minnix: Very little, other than I suppose an increase in probably to record a W.

12:08
Comment From Matt
Which side do you prefer in a 6×6 dynasty league? Freeman, Myers, Latos for Braun, Chris Davis, Salazar

12:08

Nicholas Minnix: Iffy things on both sides. I think Freeman side, most bankable player in the discussion.

12:08
Comment From Janak
Upton and anibal for Dickerson and Lester? Who wins?

12:09

Nicholas Minnix: CHRIS Dickerson? I’ll go with the Upton side, have to like my chances at least.

12:09
Comment From Mermaids
Dr.Nick! 10 team h2h, keep 5 league. I’m pretty much out of it, should I move cargo, beltre and arenado for rendon and puig? My 5 keepers would be rendon, puig, Stanton, cano and rizzo

12:09

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, if you can do that, I would. Would LOVE those keepers.

12:09
Comment From Guest
What do you expect from Arrieta ROS?

12:10

Nicholas Minnix: About what he’s been doing, with some negative regression. I like a little better than his ZiPS ROS.

12:10
Comment From CuriousGeorge
My buddy and I were discussing the 2011 draft and he insists that Bundy isnt that good and should have been a 4th round pick not 4th overall. I think he’s just trying to justify his team’s selection of Cole over Bundy. Any insight?

12:11

Nicholas Minnix: I think Bundy is easily a 1st-rounder that year, your buddy is taking it to extremes. He must be a Pirates fan. Time will tell which is better, but Cole has an edge because he’s done it at the major league level already and it’s no fluke.

12:11

Nicholas Minnix: Bundy is very young.

12:12
Comment From Janak
Miggy for headley and scherzer?

12:12

Nicholas Minnix: Sounds fine if one needs more offense and the other needs a SP, with a nice upside play at 3B that could soften the blow of a loss of Miggy. ?

12:12

Nicholas Minnix: No winner, about needs only

12:12
Comment From Matt
Is it safe to drop Cliff Lee in a 12-team, six keeper league with him on the DL more than likely for the remainder of the season with the possibility of TJ?

12:13

Nicholas Minnix: In a redrafter or limited keeper, I’d say yes. Safe? Depends on what you can pick up, will keep, a little, but in general, Lee is likely not a keeper.

12:13

Nicholas Minnix: In your setup.

12:13
Comment From madden_curser
I need to cut bait w/Hosmer out. Who should I pick-up between Teixeira, Matt Adams, Allen Craig, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Trumbo, or Adam LaRoche ? Thanks!

12:14

Nicholas Minnix: Love Adams. Morneau is a fine pickup also. What do you need? More power, may want to take a run on Trumbo. But best choices are one of the first two, Adams may give the power with slide in AVG, Morneau more reliable AVG.

12:14
Comment From Mermaids
Is Rendon a top 30 guy next year? What do you see him being over the next few years?

12:16

Nicholas Minnix: Possibly. In drafts? Yes, I could see him going there. I may not draft him that way. Can’t know til then, but still has some distance to go to develop fully. 20-15 with a solid average looks nice at 3B, 2B going into next year tho.

12:16
Comment From Russ Adams
How is George Kottaras not receiving significant ABs from a team? A solid defensive catcher with .350 OBP and .400 SLG has to be valuable no? Jays should grab him to catch Dickey.

12:17

Nicholas Minnix: Wish I could answer that. Does seem as if he’s been DFA too much this season, strange that some team doesn’t see a role for him.

12:17
Comment From AL
If you could start a keeper Strat team with 2 of the these 8, which 2 would it be. Springer, Tevaras, Hamilton, Tanaka, Abreau, Polanco, Hamilton, Ventura

12:18

Nicholas Minnix: I do not know Strat. I can say that it would not be Ventura, however. 7 to go.

12:18
Comment From Hrkac Circus
Safe to stream Worley in AZ tomorrow?

12:18

Nicholas Minnix: I think so, yes.

12:18
Comment From Steve
Goldie anibal Feliz for scherzer and kimbrel?

12:19

Nicholas Minnix: What are you addressing? Seems like you could exclude Feliz from that deal and be adequate on “value” alone. But have to do what market dictates — ie, no one else playing ball with you, he/she won’t budge, etc.

12:19
Comment From THE IRON SHIEK
Realistic package the Mets would have to give up for Tulo or Cargo? And would you do it if you were Sandy

12:20

Nicholas Minnix: I probably cannot even imagine. CarGo is much more realistic than Tulo, I think. Syndergaard and Wheeler and Harvey for Tulo? Haha.

12:21

Nicholas Minnix: If I could give up two top-level prospects to bring Tulo to the Mets, I’d do it.

12:21

Nicholas Minnix: I assume it’d take more than that.

12:21
Comment From Guest
Is Cosart back in the mixed-league conversation with his move to the NL East?

12:22

Nicholas Minnix: Streaming maybe. I wouldn’t want to rely on him. But then again, I thought Trevor Bauer was mixed league material. Ugh.

12:22
Comment From HtomyRizzo
In a keeper league (keep 5 guys, no restrictions) would you rather have puig or mccutcheon?

12:23

Nicholas Minnix: Geez. I think Puig, because he’s so much younger.

12:23
Comment From Nick
Worth holding onto Ken Giles? See Papelbon as legit candidate for an August trade?

12:23

Nicholas Minnix: Possible candidate he is, yes. Worth holding Giles? What can you pick up? Giles is unlikely to get SV.

12:24
Comment From odbsol
Lost Cliff Lee. Who do you prefer of these to replace: Liriano, Hahn or Odorizzi? Or stream it?

12:24

Nicholas Minnix: Hahn for a month. Liriano intrigues ROS, positive signs since return from oblique strain.

12:24
Comment From John
I have Mesoraco and Strosman as potential keepers. Both have undrafted status. Which would you keep?

12:24

Nicholas Minnix: Mesoraco

12:24
Comment From Brett
Henry Owens to Triple-A Pawtucket. Does he get a cup of coffee in September?

12:25

Nicholas Minnix: Very possible. I think so, but as a RP, my guess.

12:25

Nicholas Minnix: Maybe a start or two.

12:25
Comment From Alex
I know I’d be upset if I was a Phillies fan… GM sits on his hands for the whole trade deadline and then Lee exits 3 innings later.

12:25

Nicholas Minnix: Ding

12:25
Comment From Kris
Will Middlebrooks got called back up. Any intrigue? work a platoon against LHP?

12:25

Nicholas Minnix: Just never much cared for him. Bogaerts will play every day. May platoon with Holt, for now. Not mixed material, IMO.

12:27

Nicholas Minnix: Ah I see he’s projected to play 3B ROS. Smart move for BOS. 15-tm mixed league flier, at most, right now, though.

12:27
Comment From HtotheRizzo
JD Martinez or Adam Eaton?

12:27

Nicholas Minnix: HR or SB?

12:28

Nicholas Minnix: Guess I’m picking Martinez. Not sure of your parameters.

12:28
Comment From Hong Kong Fooey
Better option at 2B ROS, Lawrie, Gyorko, Wong, Alcantara or Odor in a 12 team H2H league?

12:29

Nicholas Minnix: HUGE question. There is no answer, play musical chairs. Gamble on Gyorko for now, if he slides, on Lawrie, or Alcantara. You shouldn’t be asking which ONE if they’re all available.

12:29

Nicholas Minnix: and it’s H2H

12:29
Comment From Nick
Who do you prefer as a source of cheap steals ROS? Jarrod Dyson or Lorenzo Cain? Daily moves so can afford to mix and match.

12:30

Nicholas Minnix: Dyson AND Cain? Dyson runs more often, plays less often. If you don’t want to sacrifice the ABs then you have your answer.

12:30
Comment From Rich
give up Goldschmid and J. Harrison for Felix and Beltre?

12:30

Nicholas Minnix: Yes. Wait, no.

12:32

Nicholas Minnix: Dyson AND Cain? Dyson runs more often, plays less often. If you don’t want to sacrifice the ABs then you have your answer.

12:32

Nicholas Minnix: What do you need? To win the trade? I’d say that next year, the latter side is in better position to win the trade. Long-term, the Goldy side, because of Goldy alone. ROS, redrafter, if you’re satisfying needs, go for it, either side, if you can’t squeeze anything else from the other owner.

12:36

Nicholas Minnix: Everyone, a primer for trade questions: Please give me some idea of what you are attempting to accomplish with the deal. “I need HR.” “I am playing for next year only.” “I have too many HR.” “I have punted pitching category Y.” “I can move up 4 spots in ERA and 6 spots in K’s but my SPs are rag-tag.” Just the players in a deal makes it difficult to answer if you have anything else in mind. If you just want to know who wins a deal, that’s fine, but my opinion is that a won deal usually requires more info unless it’s extremely lopsided. Other reasons: “If I give SBs to this person, he/she will help to hold off that person, whom I’m trying to hold off/catch.”

12:36
Comment From LD
Should I drop Soria at this point for someone with great ratios like Boxberger or Giles, or ride it out and hope he gets it back and eventually usurps Nathan?

12:37

Nicholas Minnix: Do you need SV? Do you have to play the RP? If you’re really concerned about the prospect of SV and could use them, I’d probably hold Soria for a bit more. If the ratios are most of what matter, then ditch him, likely.

12:37
Comment From Chuck
Any hope W. Rosario recovers his power stroke? I’m thinking of moving on with someone like D’Arnaud.

12:38

Nicholas Minnix: 1-C league, I’d be OK with dumping Rosario, easily. Even for d’Arnaud. Yes, some hope, but I don’t have anything to base it on other than past results.

12:38
Comment From Alex
Do you think the Nats trading for Cabrera was a wise move? I’ve been hearing from some Indians fans that he’s not great in pressure situations, and the Nats already have a bunch of guys who fit that mold.

12:39

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t think it was a BAD move. I haven’t witnessed him much in pressure situations. He has a few walk-off hits. That doesn’t mean much, big picture. He’s an adequate player, good depth now that Zimmerman is out for most of rest of RS.

12:39
Comment From David Dombrowski
Any possibility that Cole Hamels is my #4 come October?

12:39

Nicholas Minnix: Highly unlikely, Dave.

12:39

Nicholas Minnix: Flat no.

12:39
Comment From HtotheRizzo
Which of these closers would you be selling? Mejia, soriano, cishek, Benoit, uehara, chapman?

12:40

Nicholas Minnix: Choice, Soriano, then maybe Mejia or Cishek. Keeper, redrafter?

12:40

Nicholas Minnix: Cishek before Mejia, in keeper, likely

12:40
Comment From Brett
With Pujols’ avg batted ball distance getting shorter, is it time to trade him? I have Chris Davis.

12:41

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, not entirely for that reason, but this good, healthy season provides an excellent backdrop to trade him. Do it before you deal with another broken-down year or two or three.

12:41
Comment From Schlomo
Anyone else notice that Kiké Hernandez’s name is anti-semitic?

12:41

Nicholas Minnix: Kee-Kay. Not at all. That’s disgusting.

12:41
Comment From Guest
Is Wacha done for the year?

12:42

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t believe so. Think he began throwing. They can afford to take it slowly with him.

12:43
Comment From Rags
What’s Asdrubl worth in an NL-only OBP league? Each team gets 50 to spend on players coming into the pool. Is there any value in Almonte or that new MIA second baseman? My MI is Darwin Barney right now, fwiw.

12:45

Nicholas Minnix: He’s worth … is the 50 for this period in FAAB only? I’d go with most of it, I guess, to upgrade over Barney. Valdespin? He could be just as good a replacement, cheaper, but less reliable and less locked into PT. Solano he shares time with, Cabrera may cede a bit as well tho. Almonte probably won’t play a lot right away. I’d be happy to stash him for a few bucks to top someone tho.

12:47
Comment From matt
I was just offered their Rafael Soriano, Yoenis Cespedes and Neftali Feliz for my Jake Arrieta, Jean Machi, Joakim Soria and Salvador Perez. I have a strong rotation and could use Cespedes to move Zobrist back to SS instead of Drew while Tulo is out. Are you taking this if you’re me?

12:47

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, I think so, like it, can’t be certain when Tulo is back.

12:47
Comment From Ruben Amaro Jr.
Alex Anthopoulos and I took a fishing trip, and wouldn’t you know it we both left our phones on shore! (I think they’re buying it)

12:47

Nicholas Minnix: You forgot your tackle box, too.

12:48
Comment From Kris
So, Milone got sent to AAA and requested a trade. Gets traded to Twins, and sent to AAA :(

12:48

Nicholas Minnix: Hahahaha. Sigh. He should request a trade.

12:48
Comment From LD
Ho would you rank ROS? deGrom, Keuchel, Kennedy, Odorizzi, Ventura

12:50

Nicholas Minnix: deGrom, Keuchel, Kennedy all VERY close for me; then, Odorizzi, Yordano similar tier. Think I will actually opt for Odorizzi, but this is a gamble.

12:50
Comment From Timmy
Will Boston trade Napoli?

12:51

Nicholas Minnix: They could, surely, but only a rich contender would take him on (assuming you mean in August).

12:51
Comment From Sandy
Bumgarner for Altuve in a h2h 5×5 redraft–which side wins?

12:52

Nicholas Minnix: Whichever side filled its need better. You want fantasy value ROS, I’ll say Bumgarner, because he’s historically the better player. Altuve has out-produced STD obviously.

12:52
Comment From Guy
Hey Buddy … In a deep H2H Dynasty where your keepers all cost the same would you trade Alex Gordon/Weaver/Cecchini for Stroman? OF would still have Harper/Yelich/Holiday and Buxton for the future but I could use a solid young pitcher.

12:54

Nicholas Minnix: Hey Guy, seems a tad pricey. Depends on how many you keep, but I’d guess quite a few. I’d think two of those players would be enough to get that done, no? Gordon is a solid fantasy own by himself. I don’t value Cecchini as much as others do, but he may be more projectable than I give him credit for, has solid skills base.

12:54
Comment From John
H2H, Keep 5 league, with the quirky rule that one keeper must be undrafted from the current year. Trying to decide between Mesoraco, Strosman, and Joc Pederson. Thoughts?

12:55

Nicholas Minnix: Interesting. Mesoraco, I think, still, just easier to replace the pitcher, and Pederson … well he could be a late-round pick next year, not much different from an undrafted keeper, no?

12:55
Comment From AL
What’s your opinion of the Price deal? Why wouldn’t a team like the brewers offer a the top end of their farm for Price? It would make them better this year (win now), and they could flip him in the offseason to restock if they didn’t want to pay 20mil. Am I missing something here?

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: It’s a valid point and question. I think MIL is like some other teams that value what they have more than what they could get just because it’s what they already have and know. What you know is worth something, but there’s little not to know about how good Price is. I wouldn’t cry to deal Nelson and someone else for Price. Was TB listening? IDK.

12:57
Comment From Dan
Who should I pick upa 12 team roto? Pagan or Victorino?

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: Phew. Pagan, likely better ROS, more counting stuff.

12:57
Comment From Gila Monster
Today is so boring compared to yesterday

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: Ain’t that the truth.

12:57

Comment From Dan
The Weekly Backup test has been completed.

-Dan

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: Excellent, Dan, thank you.

12:58
Comment From LD
What do you expect from Duda ROS?

12:59

Nicholas Minnix: I expect him to be about fringey in a 15-team mixed league ROS, on average. That’s usually what I expect from him. He’s an above-average fantasy own in that format, but only an average 1B or OF, roughly speaking, I’d say.

12:59

Nicholas Minnix: 6 HR, .250 AVG?

1:01
Comment From MermaidMan
Top 5 fantasy players for next year, go!

1:01

Nicholas Minnix: Trout, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Kershaw (whom I won’t draft), Abreu or Cabrera for that last top-5 spot.

1:01
Comment From Skoolboy Jim
Do you think DeGromm and Odorizzi are going to finish as strong as their recent showings might suggest?

1:02

Nicholas Minnix: I do think it’s a very good possibility, yes. They have a good mix of stuff, especially deGrom (great division, generally, OK schedule). Odorizzi has discovered something mechanically.

1:02

Nicholas Minnix: Minor, I believe it was, the change for Odorizzi. And with pitch types.

1:02
Comment From Beany Bill
Better MI combo ROS: Kolten/Asdrubal or Alcantara/Gyorko? Or which two of the four would you take overall?

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: More upside in Alcantara, Gyorko, so I think I’d ride with that.

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: Want as much HR/SB as possible.

1:03
Comment From Matt
Going forward in a 12 team redraft league with R.HR,RBI,OBP,SLG, and NSB as categories, Would you rather have Alcantara or Lindor RoS?

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: Alcantara

1:03
Comment From MermaidMan
Brewers make a waiver deal for Ryan Howard and drop Lyle Overbay, right?

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: LOL … nope.

1:03
Comment From :(
Cliff Lee :(

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: :(

1:03
Comment From JJ
donaldson, braun and gio gonzalez for stanton, longoria and yordano ventura. who wins?

1:04

Nicholas Minnix: Redrafter, about the same. Keeper, edge to Stanton side … generally speaking.

1:05

Nicholas Minnix: Redrafter ROS I’d give slight edge to former side, just my hunch/guess.

1:05
Comment From Oopie
Craig or Prado ROS and by how much?

1:06

Nicholas Minnix: Ugh, I wish I could say Craig. :( I will say, be the play it safe guy, Prado. Craig has some work to do, approach-wise.

1:06
Comment From Sandy
ROS: Gattis or Gomes?

1:07

Nicholas Minnix: Gattis, but Gomes is good also in that he’s on the rise, obviously, guessing it’s why you asked. Gattis has just a touch more power.

1:07
Comment From Larry David
Have been offered Gio/Alcantara for my CarGo. H2H pts keeper. I have Harper/Kemp/Myers/Trumbo/Bats/others already in the OF, but Prado/Gennett at 2B. Thinking of countering with CarGo/CJ Wilson/Gennett for Murphy/Gio/Alcantara. What are your thoughts on these 2 deals Nicholas!

1:11

Nicholas Minnix: Don’t see the appeal of the extra stuff in the counter – extra 2B. Murphy should cover you this year and next at 2B, Alcantara is a nice backup plan I suppose. I wouldn’t look to duplicate too much if I could upgrade elsewhere? But think you could get more for CarGo than you are in the first deal. If it’s a limited keeper anyway. If it’s a deep keeper, then a little more reason to think it over. Alcantara solid with some upside, not elite, I don’t think. Gio also a nice addition for K’s and such, if you need the pitching now, tho, obviously.

1:12
Comment From Not Amaro
McHugh v Jays or Shoemaker @ Rays who do you start ?

1:13

Nicholas Minnix: Ugh … If I could have more confidence in Shoemaker on the road, I’d say him. Rays might be kind of deflated, but I think that’s too difficult to read into and bank on. Love some of Shoemaker’s stuff, too many uncertainties, feel a little safer with McHugh. Shoemaker has more upside in that start, tho, could be another of b2b gems.

1:14
Comment From Oopie
Need guys who can help a lot in batting average in an AL-only, especially guys who are good buy-lows or sleepers… any suggestions?

1:18

Nicholas Minnix: Hmmm. ROS? Or Keepers? Brad Miller, Kendrys Morales or Stephen Drew if you close your eyes (don’t do that), still sorta believe in David Freese. Think James Jones could have a bit of a resurgence in the next month or two, eventually. Maybe Aoki, not liking skills decline but some positive regression seems possible, even likely, although it might not be much.

1:18

Nicholas Minnix: To the person who asked about the trade involving Dickerson: SORRY! You had to have meant COREY Dickerson. I still stand by my answer, whatever it was.

1:19
Comment From Crowded OF
Billy Hamilton v. Oscar Tavares as my 4th OF ROS? What about as keepers? (I already have Trout, McCutch, and Pence, though could try to trade one.)

1:20

Nicholas Minnix: ROS, depends on your need – SB (many more) or HR (maybe a handful, give or take a couple). Keeper, Taveras, just a much more reliable skill set.

1:20
Comment From Guy
Do you believe Profar is still a superstar in the making or does this lost season cause him to become more of a solid MLB regular?

1:21

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t think it hurts him much, really, beyond what potential long-term effects the injury has on his swing. I don’t expect any, but it may take some time to get comfortable and get the swing back. Still sooo young that I’m not worried about him not hitting whatever he’d hit.

1:21
Comment From menomena
Lester to the A’s is going to be kind of an interesting case study in framing, isn’t it? park + defense helps in his favor, but framing numbers were huge for him and now he’s going to guys who are supposed to be not good. wonder how it all shakes out

1:22

Nicholas Minnix: This is an excellent point. A nice lead for a Community article for you, unless you would like to give it to another writer! Didn’t even think about that.

1:23

Nicholas Minnix: Lester’s control has improved so much that he may not be as affected as he’d have been earlier in his career. But it’s a totally valid point and something to watch.

1:23
Comment From Idiots
HtomyRizzo appears to not be able to spell his own name….let alone a certain Andrew’s.

1:25

Nicholas Minnix: Are you both parodying Jay-Z, and does just one of you dislike Jay-Z’s music? Or did one of us (probably me) miss something? It’s me, surely.

1:25
Comment From Jake
Lee’s ROS ERA:

1:25

Nicholas Minnix: LOL. -.–

1:25
Comment From Tonah
So now that Beckham and Alexei are staying put, is Semien worthless?

1:25

Nicholas Minnix: Other than in like a full-retention keeper league, probably, pretty much.

1:25
Comment From Brett
I’m in a 14-team keeper league with 5 guys to keep, no restrictions. I’ve got 4 with Tulo, Bogaerts, Springer and Chris Davis. Who would be the best 5th guy: Carlos Santana, Brian Dozier or Max Scherzer?

1:28

Nicholas Minnix: My goodness. I might … I think I’d consider Dozier over Bogaerts (who might be easier to draft next year and/or doesn’t have the HIGHEST fantasy ceiling in the world, just a good player, IMO). Scherzer is a wild card, I think DET will let him walk, he might be the best keeper left, especially if he ends up with an NL team. Santana and Bogaerts values have to be down a little, relatively, which is more, hard to say, vs. what they offer in the future. I like Santana more as a hitter, but he’s frustrating because he should be even better, in a full season.

1:28

Nicholas Minnix: I’d trade Dozier. Can you do that??? This is peak value for him, in a season, I think. Maybe someone views him as a keeper?

1:29

Nicholas Minnix: Especially if you like Bogaerts, at least more than I do. Bogaerts might be fine, solid, just may be talent at MI that isn’t much of a drop-off from him, in terms of 5×5 production.

1:29
Comment From Tonah
Will Chris Taylor get full time ABs or be a platoon guy all season?

1:30

Nicholas Minnix: Ugh. I wish I knew what was in SEA’s head. I don’t think Taylor will play every day at any point ROS. Not a strict platoon, but not every day.

1:30
Comment From I Did It All For The Mookie
What in the balls do the Sox do with Mookie?

1:31

Nicholas Minnix: Trade Pedroia! They can answer a lot of that in the offseason, I presume. They are definitely candidates to deal someone this winter as well.I think Bradley was just starting to come on a bit, not ready to say he’s useless yet.

1:31
Comment From Anton
How can you be sure of how much to trust regression to the mean? If a player is striking out a lot less, and his plate discipline data supports it (fewer chased balls, more contact in the zone), then wouldn’t the projections that regress K% be somewhat off?

1:35

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, it’s far from perfect. Some part of that (K%) goes with regression in performance, however, you K more often when you’re negatively regressing, generally speaking, and how much is also difficult to determine afterward, let alone going forward. It’s different for everyone. Regression and probabilities are really just buckets. I don’t think it’s entirely accurate or care for the use of the term “probability” for correlations of a population’s outcomes. The individual has his own probability. But there are a ton of variables that are much more difficult to quantify w/o those buckets, regardless.

1:36
Comment From AA
Do minor leaguers need to pass through waivers to be traded in Aug?

1:36

Nicholas Minnix: Only those on the 40-man roster, I believe.

1:36
Comment From John
Hey man, obviously you shouldn’t publish this but thanks for answering my question! Much appreciated.

1:38

Nicholas Minnix: I will publish what I want! To some level. But I thank you, and I don’t publish it to promote self but to say you’re welcome and thanks for the acknowledgment, and thanks all of you who want my input. It’s a courteous thing, and so in kind. I hope I’m of some help, and not just sending you away more confused, but I know that’s impossible to do 100% of the time or even 80% of the time.

1:38
Comment From Milhouse
What side you like? Dynasty OBP league. Choo and Andrus or JRoll and K. Wong?

1:39

Nicholas Minnix: Hmmm … Andrus side, for Andrus alone. Wong’s upside doesn’t tantalize much, to me. But he could be a very solid OBP asset. I’d might have to think on that some more, but I like the Andrus side right away.

1:40
Comment From Idiots
Khris Davis or Parra?

1:42

Nicholas Minnix: Man, I gotta think MIL goes with Davis, has provided more value. Parra is a threat tho I imagine, I’d rather see him be a late-game def. sub, I think, in LF. Davis sticks for now, at least.

1:42
Comment From Dave
Is Pedro Alvarez droppable in 12 team mixed?

1:43

Nicholas Minnix: I … would not do that unless the player I picked up was considerably better or more filling of a need. Not for like Conor Gillaspie (I think that’s not much of an upgrade, right?)

1:44
Comment From Joe
Who do you prefer in Roto dynasty standard 5×5? Bogaerts, Russell, or Baez and by how much. No factor for position.

1:46

Nicholas Minnix: Geez. I do like Russell, and I do like Baez. I think of the three, this is a risk, but I’d go with Russell. They’re all risks. I think fantasy upside of Russell combined with minor league displays, level, age, I feel most confident in him as value contributor. Baez I like more than some others, but there is probably a better chance that he busts than some of these others.

1:46
Comment From Joc Pederson
I’m never coming up, am I?

1:46

Nicholas Minnix: Never. Ever. Ever! :D

1:47
Comment From Dr. Met
Folty time in Houston… as a reliever. 7th or 8th inning guy yet?

1:47

Nicholas Minnix: September, I’d think.

1:47
Comment From J
How do you feel about Kemp ROS?

1:48

Nicholas Minnix: Have to like how it’s come along, don’t you? I figured he’d struggle for most of this season. Still a health risk, but I’d gamble on overs for ROS ZiPs for him, I think.

1:48

Nicholas Minnix: Health = he might get injured again, not same issues now (barring recurrence). He’s proven to be healthier than I thought he’d be (specifically the ankle)>

1:49

Nicholas Minnix: OK folks, I really have to go. I intended to go for much less today, last chance to be with family before I travel back west. Thanks for joining me today, look forward to next time. Until then!




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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.


3 Responses to “Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 8/1/14”

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  1. stevev says:

    One way to look at it is Price > Shark. Would you trade A.Russell for Smyly, Franklin and Adames?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. sam says:

    Hey Nick, looking for some advice on Colin McHugh’s start tonight against Toronto. What do you think of him tonight against Toronto?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Well, man, I thought it wasn’t the worst idea, but looking at the numbers. … I don’t like it much. I don’t like it at all.

      To the fella who asked about McHugh vs. Shoemaker, I’d right with Shoemaker. Sorry, hope you see this! And hope I’m right.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

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