Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 8/15/14

11:50
Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everyone! I’ll be with you at the top of the hour, as usual.

11:58
Nicholas Minnix: Gonna go ahead and get started. Hope to wrap not much past the hour today. Bring it.

11:58
Comment From Guest
I know you and Eno touched on it yesterday but are you ok with dropping a $13 Minor in 4×4 Otto, i have cheaper more effective options.

11:58
Nicholas Minnix: Yes.

11:58
Comment From Guest
hi

11:58
Nicholas Minnix: Hey hey!

11:59
Comment From Guest
You ok with starting Richards and Cobb, getting close to Ip limit and i dont love the matchups.

12:00
Nicholas Minnix: Yes, I wouldn’t really fear the Rangers even at home right now, or the Yanks. The pitchers are good, I’d have a clean conscience, at least.

12:00
Comment From best question of the day
Is Mike Fiers for real? Can someone strike 14 batters out and only be an average pitchers or is he an underrated late bloomer?

12:01
Nicholas Minnix: Yes, against the aggressive, young Cubs, someone can. He has a good fastball-change mix. He’s not a late bloomer. He has problems with the HR. I’d view him as similar to Marco Estrada. Next season he could be much worse, depending on minute things for him, location.

12:01
Comment From Tell me why
Why are Orioles fans always upset at this site and I rarely see a peep out of KC and Milwaukee fans? I guess the midwest is just smarter

12:01
Nicholas Minnix: Hahahaha

12:01
Comment From Sandy
Crack open a cold one, it’s Minnix time.

12:02
Nicholas Minnix: Look out! I’d take a lukewarm one, honestly. Don’t tempt me. OK, here I go. …

12:02
Comment From so long and thanks for all the fish
Hi Nick! It’s time to think about keepers – esp if your team is out of it – like me. Which two of these guys should I NOT keep?

12:02
Nicholas Minnix: Hey there!. I’m going to say. …

12:02
Comment From Kurt
Thoughts on Garrett Richards and Kluber for 2015? Both top 25-30 SP? Have both for $1

12:03
Nicholas Minnix: Like them next season, Kluber more confident in to “repeat,” like both, awesome prices. Richards doesn’t mean I don’t like him to continue with breakout.

12:03
Comment From Brad
Hey Nick: Hamles to Boston rumors. Is this aug deal or offseason deal? And, if you are gm of Phils who would you accept back from Boston in return for Hamels.

12:05
Nicholas Minnix: This strikes me as more of an offseason thing. Who knows, though. We’ve seen Boston overhaul in August before. I’m not sure who else is in the deal, but I wouldn’t do it unless Henry Owens were in it. Him and say a couple of other, lesser players. Ranaudo might stand a chance to succeed in the NL, don’t like him in the AL.

12:06
Comment From so long and thanks for all the fish
Which two of these guys should NOT be keeper worthy compared to the others: Alutve (10th round price), Rizzo (5th), Harper (8th), Bogaerts (21st), Mesoraco (16th) or Seager (13th)

12:10
Nicholas Minnix: NOT? Hmmm. Bogaerts. If I have to pick another, it’d be … I’m having a hard time with the 2nd. First, can you make offseason trades? I’d try to deal Altuve. Maybe package him. Get another obvious keeper. If not, if it’s a one-catcher league, I could see it being Mesoraco. Rizzo — perhaps you can find more talent at 1B by the 5th round again. Harper has serious disappointed and should be discounted next year. And Seager is good but not great. You have ways to go, depends on how you feel about the 2015 player pool, who else is kept.

12:10
Comment From pass it to the left
could Chris Carter’s emergence mean anything? Wondering what his value next season would be, thanks.

12:11
Nicholas Minnix: Mean anything? That Houston won’t give him away. They may still try to deal him in the offseason. Value? Fantasy? Same as this year.

12:11
Comment From Ronnie
Which Cardinal would you rather have slotted in your 2B spot for the playoffs: Matt Carpenter or Kolten Wong? I’ve got my playoff spot locked up, so should I stick with the relative consistency of Carpenter or gamble on some more speed/pop with Wong?

12:11
Nicholas Minnix: I’d not make the decision yet. They may do that for you. Carpenter is safe for now.

12:12
Comment From Marc
Coors always makes me nervous with my SPs…would you still start Cueto today?

12:12
Nicholas Minnix: He’s an exception, I’d probably go ahead.

12:12
Comment From pass it to the left
Pick two for next season: Seager, Mesoraco, Bogaets?

12:12
Nicholas Minnix: Same person, ain’t it? Haha. Mesoraco and Seager.

12:13
Comment From Sandy
Question about general fantasy strategy–I’m sure that many of us who are doing well in our fantasy leagues this year have gotten to where we are because we’ve been both lucky and good, avoiding the injury bug while also picking up the right players at the right times–guys like Cruz, Abreu, Dozier, Rendon, and the like. Since we’re doing well, the general advice is to stand pat as our leagues approach their trade deadlines. Do you concur, or should we keep tinkering all the way to fantasy playoffs?

12:14
Nicholas Minnix: Always tinker, if you can. I wouldn’t stand pat if I could upgrade, change dynamics of my team for the better. What can you give, and get? Very general, but I don’t think resting on laurels is sound advice, if you’re not exploring your options.

12:14
Comment From Asdrubal Cabrera
Was my trade the most under-looked and important trade of the deadline?

12:15
Nicholas Minnix: Hmmm. No. Don’t think so. But not a bad move, so far.

12:15
Comment From Egypt
You have the face of a great Sphinx, Nicholas Minnix.

12:15
Nicholas Minnix: I’m not sure how to take that, haha. Thanks, I think.

12:15
Comment From John
so the mets and the harvey situation – all this bad PR they leak to the press, its all setting up for ultimately trading harvey, right? i mean this is what the mets do, they shit on their own players when they want to get rid of them

12:16
Nicholas Minnix: I think they **** on whoever. They just don’t have much savvy in the PR department, I don’t think.

12:16
Nicholas Minnix: It’d seem like a possibility, just because they may eventually drive him away.

12:16
Comment From Im frustrated
So Evan Longoria has just sucked. It’s ruined me. Who saw this coming…?

12:17
Nicholas Minnix: Eva Longoria?

12:17
Comment From Kevin Towers
What will be my swan song at Chase Field after I’m canned?

12:18
Nicholas Minnix: After? Can’t do anything. Just before? Trade Archie Bradley for gritty Sam Fuld?

12:18
Comment From Andrew
Think Solarte can play through the oblique problem? Shortstop waiver wire is razor thin and he’s my only option right now

12:19
Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t trust anyone to play through an oblique problem. They do that less often these days, wisely. If they do, it gets worse.

12:19
Comment From $
The best contract and baseball right now is _____________?

12:19
Nicholas Minnix: A-Rod’s!

12:22
Nicholas Minnix: Goldy’s, maybe? Had to look at a list, seems like a winner.

12:23
Comment From Aaron
Who are your MVPs if the season ended today?

12:23
Nicholas Minnix: Trout, … NL is so impossible right now. Stanton, Kershaw, Stanton, Kershaw … Stanton, for now.

12:24
Comment From Goat
Can the heatmaps be arranged to look at partial seasons? Would be very interested to know if pitchers have adjusted to take advantage of trout’s vulnerability up in the zone?

12:24
Nicholas Minnix: You may have some luck at Brooks:

12:24
12:25
Nicholas Minnix: Hope perhaps coming soon at FG.

12:25
Comment From Theo Ep
The Cubs will win the world series by _______?

12:25
Nicholas Minnix: 2017 or not at all?

12:25
Comment From pass it to the left
Masterson had a pretty good game. Should we start him in 2-start week next week over someone like McCarthy, McHuhgh, Odorizzi?

12:26
Nicholas Minnix: I’d be hesitant to do that yet. I’d be encouraged. I’d have to see matchups for each of those pitchers to consider him.

12:26
Comment From Alex Rios
So, does any team look to trade for me off waivers?

12:27
Nicholas Minnix: He cleared waivers. A deal is possible. He should get past this nagging ankle injury first.

12:27
Comment From Huh
Am I the only one thinking Baez is extremely overrated? The guy cannot make contact. I mean, he can hit the ball a long way, but that only goes so far.

12:28
Nicholas Minnix: He’s overrated in a couple of weeks? He’s hit some bombs, but he has major flaws, especially the contact rate, yes. Two weeks isn’t indicative of his career arc, no.

12:28
Comment From Ned Yost
Thoughts on the possibility of Jarrod Dyson being a starter next year? If it came to fruition, what type of numbers could we hope for?

12:32
Nicholas Minnix: It seems unlikely. He has platoon split issues vs. LHPs, but perhaps they’d be willing to go with that arrangement and some RHB out there. In 400-450 PAs, maybe a .260 AVG, 30-35 SBs, assuming he doesn’t show signs of age. He’s 30. His birthday is today, so make sure you send him your best.

12:32
Comment From Random Question
Is Miguel Montero’s babip where it should be, or do you think it goes up…?

12:32
Nicholas Minnix: Seems about right to me. Maybe a few points higher? Hairs.

12:32
Comment From Catcher Q
Vogt or Montero ROS?

12:33
Nicholas Minnix: Montero just the more reliable choice. Vogt may get hot again, so keep him on your watch list.

12:33
Comment From so long… fish
Nick sorry about that botched question – i pressed enter at the wrong time. I resent it though!

12:33
Nicholas Minnix: No worries!

12:33
Comment From Youre welcome
I’m Stanton on your hopes and dreams.

12:34
Comment From Cody
Think Felix has a shot at MVP?

12:34
Nicholas Minnix: No, not really.

12:34
Comment From Goat
Any advice on picking RPs to stream to get scab wins? Any guys out there getting multiple innings, or is there an ideal SP/ strength of offense combo to be looking for? Know the odds are slim in any one day, but it’s all about increasing your chances wherever possible. And it’s my bogey category!

12:36
Nicholas Minnix: To stream, no. To carry and get them, perhaps. Whoever has been getting them this season will probably continue to be in that position for ROS. Dunn, Watson, Clippard, etc. They occasionally give up leads, often pitch 7th or 8th, generally good pitchers.

12:36
Comment From Tony G.
Thoughts on Allen Craig, both ROS and in 2015?

12:36
Nicholas Minnix: ROS, not hopeful. Next season, I’d need to hear that there was progress made in terms of his health before I consider a rebound likely. The upside is becoming diminished, too. .300, 10-12 HR?

12:37
Nicholas Minnix: 10-15 HR, let’s say.

12:37
Comment From ;)
Something seems wrong with talent evalutation if the Brewers can keep trotting out unrespected prospects (Khristopher Davis, Gennett, Fiers, (maybe peralta and nelson they get some respect)) and finding success

12:39
Nicholas Minnix: Let’s not get carried away. … Davis they’ve already turned into a platoon player, and same for Gennett. They’ve gotten maybe a full season of value from them. It could be downhill for Davis from here, especially if they’ve cast him going forward. Fiers is 29, and he makes 2 great starts in 2014, and you forget about 2013? He’s not bank in 2015, please know.

12:39
Comment From Rusney Castillo
How good am I really? Am I ready to see major-league pitching? Slash line…?

12:41
Nicholas Minnix: Only scouts and FOs have really seen him, that I’m aware, at length. Stuff like this isn’t enough. But, it’s what we have. http://www.baseballamerica….

12:43
Nicholas Minnix: Peak season, IDK, maybe career, .275-.290/.335-.350/.400-.425ish? Don’t see much power translating here, but the speed should.

12:43
Comment From Shawn
Any current non-closing RPs you think can get saves the rest of the year?

12:44
Nicholas Minnix: Soria? Haha. Neil Ramirez perhaps in September, but a reach. Oh, Eno likes Aaron Sanchez. Someone in TOR is a good possibility.

12:44
Comment From please please please
Are any of these Tulo-to-the-Yankeese (in the offseason) rumors hold any water? Please say they do!

12:45
Nicholas Minnix: I’m sure it’s possible. I don’t think it’s likely.

12:45
Comment From Shauntell
Do you like Masterson going forward? Think the Cards have fixed his command issues?

12:45
Nicholas Minnix: I am cautiously optimistic. I picked him up in my 15-team mixed league a couple of weeks ago on that prospect.

12:45
Comment From Jeff Sullivan
I could probably beat you in an arm wrestle. Just sayin.

12:45
Nicholas Minnix: Probably.

12:46
Comment From My Sox are Red
Is Mookie starting in CF for Boston on Opening Day 2015?

12:46
Nicholas Minnix: Right now, it’s him or Bradley, I’d say. So it seems reasonable. What will they do with Betts if he’s not their CF? Hard to say.

12:46
Comment From Kurt
Where would you rank Bogaerts with the elite young SS moving forward? Has his inability to adjust to breaking balls adjusted his lofty status?

12:47
Nicholas Minnix: Yes, he’s not elite, as a hitter. Don’t think he ever was. Has some serious growth to make.

12:47
Comment From Shawn
Do you expect good things from Andrew Chasner when he comes back?

12:47
Nicholas Minnix: Sure, why not. Health is the only issue.

12:48
Comment From Goat
Fantasy NFL draft tonight. Any hot tips on mid round sleepers? Pretty shallow league

12:48
Nicholas Minnix: I like Kyle Rudolph at TE. How’s that?

12:48
Comment From Tom Jones
Any faith in Chris Taylor being a good fantasy SS in 2015?

12:48
Nicholas Minnix: Not yet. I like Miller, think he’s reasonable bounce-back candidate. PT will be tough to project for SEA SS.

12:49
Comment From ;p
Best GM in baseball that does not reside in Chicago? Or just the most underrated?

12:49
Nicholas Minnix: Ruben Amaro Jr.! :-(

12:50
Nicholas Minnix: Cherington is pretty good, from what I’ve seen. I think Brian Cashman deserves a little more credit than he typically gets, which seems a sin. CLE, PIT not bad.

12:50
Comment From American League Hustle
In terms of an AL-only league, is Jose Altuve a top-5, top-10 or top-20 overall player next season?

12:51
Nicholas Minnix: Actual, I’ll say none of the above. I’d trade him in a keeper league if I could.

12:51
Comment From Kris
I have a chance to win it all (again woohoo). Should I deal a 1st round Tulo for a 2nd round Bryce harper?

12:51
Nicholas Minnix: Do it! (Win I mean.) The deal? I’d do that, too, Tulo 1st not per se a keeper. If you need the help.

12:52
Nicholas Minnix: And can’t get more. Harper might be really strong ROS, too.

12:52
Comment From Cam
In a 10 team, keep 6 where I have adequate pitching, but looking for all offensive categories, does dealing Cargo and Felix for Stanton make sense to you?

12:52
Nicholas Minnix: Couldn’t Felix alone net Stanton? Geez.

12:52
Nicholas Minnix: Maybe a lesser player. CarGo is still really good, of course no more dependable than Tulo.

12:52
Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Please rank in terms of 2015 expectations: S. Gray/Kazmir/D. Holland/Meyer/Gausman. Thanks!

12:54
Nicholas Minnix: Kazmir/Gray, Holland (barely), Gausman, Meyer. Those last 3 are less inspiring, 2015, than the first 2.

12:54
Nicholas Minnix: Meyer is the unknown, perhaps most exciting, of those last 3.

12:54
Comment From Milhouse
I’m 10 points up in a 5×5 roto. HR/RBI my only need. Is Zobrist that much of an upgrade over Prado/H. Kendrick for an MI spot or should I save my resources? Thanks!

12:55
Nicholas Minnix: I don’t think so, not much of an upgrade.

12:55
Comment From Tom
What should the Royals do with Hosmer when he returns? Platoon at 1B? Leave him on the bench for productivity reasons? Leave him on the bench because they don’t have time to mess around with him during the thick of a pennant race?

12:55
Nicholas Minnix: He should play every day, but DH once or twice a week.

12:55
Nicholas Minnix: His D is very good.

12:55
Comment From Please Help!
I asked this question to Eno yesterday and would love your feedback as well. When you find yourself in mid-August with the chance to win a fantasy league, do you go all in? What I really mean by that is will you make trades that help your team slightly, even if you’re giving up a boatload of future assets in return? How do you draw the line between improving and getting fleeced? Thanks so much for the input.

12:57
Nicholas Minnix: Slightly, for huge assets? No, I wouldn’t do that. Some of it is feel, because who gets ripped off at the time is all about perception. If you address a need or weak area or generally improve your chances to win, then it’s not a bad deal, likely. Tough question to answer. I wouldn’t sell the farm to improve my chances to win by 5% or something like that.

12:57
Comment From Andrew
Hang on to Solarte at SS or drop him for someone like Brock Holt?

12:58
Nicholas Minnix: If you need a body, drop. I wouldn’t expect an oblique thing to heal instantly. Keep finger on trigger if you like Solarte that much to come back to him. Solarte has been hot, remember he went cold with the Yanks, he’s not the be-all.

12:58
Nicholas Minnix: I’m at 12:13, folks.

12:58
Comment From Scott O
16 team 5×5; I give N. Cruz & get Aoki & Urehara. Need ave, sb, and sv, era, whip. Trying to win it this year!

12:58
Nicholas Minnix: Sounds OK to me then.

12:59
Comment From Middle of the pack
Pick a side in keep-8 roto for ROS and keeper purposes — A. Gonz and Shark vs. Garret Richards and K. Wong.

1:00
Nicholas Minnix: ROS, have to like first side a little more, obv, and keeper, I guess the latter. But in keeper with only 8 keepers, I don’t see Wong as a keeper, w/o knowing any more than this. None of these guys may be keepers, depending on a lot of other things.

1:00
Comment From Zach
Hamel’s already got pulled back on waivers, if he was put back on waivers the first team to claim him would get him for free. So isn’t it impossible for Boston to get him in August

1:00
Nicholas Minnix: Yes, good point, thanks.

1:00
Comment From Kurt
Thoughts on Dee Gordon in a keeper? Does he sustain his ability to hit for avg & get on base or is he more like Segura last year

1:01
Nicholas Minnix: He’s an interesting case. He made a lot of adjustments this year, and they’re all legit. Maintaining that discipline is a tall task for many young players. I think Gordon has a fair chance to retain a good bit of it, though. I think better than Segura, which surprises me to say, me in March.

1:02
Comment From Dempster Fire
What do you think about the hot-hand hypothesis/fallacy? A lot of old econ lit. was devoted to disproving the idea of the hot-hand in sports (i.e., short-term success predicts further short-term success), but now the consensus seems to be reversing.

1:03
Nicholas Minnix: Not sure of the context in which you mean. It doesn’t predict success, sure. In fantasy, if you catch it very early, daily lineups, and you’re playing musical chairs, it can be done, but very difficult. If you’re an MLB decision-maker and that’s your approach, then your team better be out of it already and your aim may be just to reward players because you don’t have a future option to test.

1:03
Comment From My middle infield is RUINED
Assuming he comes back next week, Brandon Philips a better option ROS over Alcantara or La Stella?

1:04
Nicholas Minnix: La Stella, probably, in an AVG league, OBP, maybe not. Alcantara better at the counting stuff these days, I’d think, so I’d go with him.

1:04
Comment From Merkles Boner
Who would you give the NL MVP to?

1:04
Nicholas Minnix: Lean Stanton ever so slightly right now.

1:04
Nicholas Minnix: Oop, nope, now Kershaw.

1:04
Nicholas Minnix: Nah, Stanton.

1:05
Comment From Scott O
Deep 5×5: Which RP will be the most helpful to roster ROS: Albourquerque or M. Dunn?

1:06
Nicholas Minnix: Hope for a SV or two? Al Al. Otherwise, about the same, and shooting for W’s, Dunn.

1:06
Comment From :)
Most overrated GM

1:07
Nicholas Minnix: Who rates? Um, maybe Jocketty?

1:08
Comment From :)
Who are the LVPs if the season ended today

1:08
Nicholas Minnix: Nick Swisher, Dom Brown. Thanks, WAR.

1:08
Comment From JP
What’s wrong with Matt Holliday? Has the knee driven down his power all season or age catching up?

1:08
Nicholas Minnix: Combination. FB% slowing dipped. He’s aging. Health just helps it.

1:08
Comment From BillaBong
N. Cruz hits __ hr’s and bats.___ ROS?

1:09
Nicholas Minnix: 35, .350. OK, 7 or 8, .260

1:09
Comment From :)
If you could be any teams GM right now who would you pick? Cubs seem most obvious but maybe the fun work is done

1:10
Nicholas Minnix: A lot of the fun is done. I’d pick PHI because I … or any of my friends’ children … could do better. I’d want to fix PHI.

1:10
Comment From THE average sports fan
Is Adam Eaton actually a just a robot made entirely of tissue paper?

1:10
Nicholas Minnix: Hahaha.

1:11
Comment From Evan Longoria
Am I just having a bad season or starting to decline drastically?

1:12
Nicholas Minnix: I’d say it’s more a bad season, but there is some decline going on. Not an elite player. A tier below, and reliability is a factor.

1:12
Comment From Bob
In a deep keeper league where you can keep up to 20 players, is Kiemaier worth hanging on to for a team in need of speed?

1:12
Nicholas Minnix: AL league, certainly possible. Mixed, seems unlikely.

1:13
Comment From Moop
There’s 6 weeks left and only 2 teams are out of contention. They’re asking for big name keepers for modest upgrades… like dealing DJ Peterson Chris Taylor and Semien for Andrus. Should I bite the bullet and do it in hopes it will help me win, or hold?

1:14
Nicholas Minnix: I’d come closer to hold there. I’d like to think … depends on your keeper rules. But Peterson and one more seems like enough. Andrus could be a keeper? If so, then all three players, that’s fair. Semien isn’t keeper material, in most leagues. Taylor seems unlikely to be. Peterson is the only one there who has the promise to be that class, but he’s a prospect, not a given. Andrus still kind of young, although not elite production, obviously.

1:14
Comment From Ben
What would it take to acquire Zobrist this offseason?

1:15
Nicholas Minnix: A decent player, close to MLB-ready, not someone special.

1:16

Comment From Decisions decisions…
Trade question, long term keeper league. I’ve got two offers on the table (1) Greinke and Pedroia for Cano, or (2) Greinke and Wright for Miggy. I feel like either is good on value, but selling Greinke would leave my pitching staff short. Left would be Cobb, Hammel, a bunch of short innings candidates (McHugh, Smyly, Wheeler, and Wood) and some reliance on Cashner and/or Holland to be effective with the fantasy playoffs coming up in just a few weeks.




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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.


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