NLCS Scouting: Gallardo vs. Carpenter

Just look at that lovely mug.

Tonight’s NCLS matchup, pending the game isn’t rained out: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter.

Yovani Gallardo

I’ve already previewed Gallardo once this postseason, so take a peek at this post for a full look at his pitch selection. In general, what I had to say held up over his first two postseason starts: his curveball was his main out pitch when ahead in the count, and he used his slider frequently when he fell behind in the count. Gallardo has a very similar approach regardless of if a righty or lefty is at the plate, so I wouldn’t expect him to alter his strategy much against the righty heavy Cardinals.

Chris Carpenter

Carpenter is another one of those pitchers that gets by with less. He only works three main pitches — a sinker, a cutter, and a curveball — and he doesn’t mix up his use depending on the handedness of the batter too much. He throws his sinker around 45% of the time, his cutter 30% (although more often against righties), and his curveball 20% (more often against lefties). He also throws an occasional changeup, but he uses it rarely and almost exclusively throws it to left-handed hitters.

When the count is even or he’s behind, Carpenter uses his sinker quite frequently and uses it to induce around 50-60% groundballs. As he gets ahead in the count, though, Carpenter throws his cutter and curveball around 80% of the time. And if Carpenter gets into a deep count with the hitter (2-2, 3-2), he favors his cutter much more than his curveball.

For a 36-year-old pitcher, Carpenter has been extremely durable over the last year; he threw over 230 innings this season for the second season in a row. And despite missing almost two full seasons with injuries, he’s still the same old pitcher that he always was: he gets a decent number of strikeouts (7.2 K/9), but sets himself apart from the crowd with his walk rate (2.0 per nine) and groundball rate (47%). His 3.50 SIERA isn’t awe-inspiring, but he’s one of the most consistent, versatile aces you can find.

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Steve is the editor-in-chief of DRaysBay and the keeper of the FanGraphs Library. You can follow him on Twitter at @steveslow.

10 Responses to “NLCS Scouting: Gallardo vs. Carpenter”

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  1. JohnOrpheus says:

    “Carpenter is another one of those pitchers that gets by with less.”

    This is simply not true. Carpenter has, and has always had, great stuff. Low to mid 90s sinker with a vicious cutter and 12 to 6 curveball. He’s not 2006 Jeff Suppan out there. This is not a pitchability guy. I find it unfortunate that all Cardinals pitchers get stereotyped this way.

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  2. CircleChange11 says:

    Be interesting to see how other good pitchers have fared in a playoff start following a “game of your life” start.

    For certain, Carp is going to receive a massive ovation. After that is less certain.

    Be interesting to see how the teams handle this game. Will TLR use bullpen or ride Carp?

    After this MIL probably faces Lohse and Garcia, 2 pitchers that are better at home, followed by Jackson and Carp if thoose games are needed. MIL can no longer just be resolved to winning their home games.

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  3. Jimbo says:

    The article should have accounted for the chilling effect of mark kotsay in CF over Nyjer Morgan or Carlos Gomez. The manager gave the runs and game away.

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  4. adr3 says:

    Kotsay did get on base 3 times and hit a home run….. If he doesn’t get doubled off, andthe ball in the first inning doesn’t fall in that exact spot, Roenicke may have looked like a genius.

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  5. D says:

    It wasn’t just 1 ball in the first. Gomez likely gets to the Pujols double as well (that may seem improbable based on how far away Kotsay was to the ball, but Gomez is a crazy amount faster than Kotsay). Two of the first 3 batters of the game would of resulted in outs with Gomez in CF.

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