Oakland vs Detroit: A Story of Depth
If you hadn’t been paying close attention to the Athletics and the Tigers, you might have a couple preconceptions about the matchup. Maybe “old, slow sluggers” vs “speedy upstart youngsters.” Or maybe “tradition” vs “moneyball two.” Or maybe even “offense and an ace” vs “pitching and defense.” Delve further into the numbers, though, and this matchup between the elephants and the tigers isn’t so easily monikered.
Pitching
The Athletics have a good team ERA, so saying their staff is a strength is no stretch. But you might be surprised that the Tigers have a better team FIP (3.63 to 3.89). Home parks have something to do with this. The Athletics have a pitching-friendly home park (97 park factor for wOBA, 93 for home runs), and sure enough, they have worse overall numbers away from home (3.95 ERA, 4.11 FIP). As is the case with most of Oakland’s staff, these numbers have been in flux all season — Brett Anderson, Oakland’s first- or second-best pitcher, only started his first game on August 21st, but the overall numbers are there for the Tigers staff, too. Let’s just say the distance between these two staffs is closer than you might have thought.
Of course, much of Detroit’s strength lies at the top of their rotation. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on either team, and Max Scherzer (3.74 ERA/3.27 FIP) belongs in the conversation for second-best pitcher on either team, if only because I put him in that conversation. The Tigers pitching staff had 24.8 WAR and Verlander has 6.8 of them. The Athletics staff had 18.1 WAR and nobody had more than Jarrod Parker’s 3.7.
But if Parker, Tommy Milone, Anderson and Griffin (in that order) can hold serve through five innings, there is a pitching advantage that is decidedly in Oakland’s favor: the bullpen. As we saw in the final series, having Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle and Grant Balfour for the final two-plus innings can be a deadly thing. Oakland’s bullpen far outshined Detroit’s, at least when it came to results — 2.94/3.74 to 3.79/3.77 — and having the rapidly-declining “Big Potato” Jose Valverde at the very end of the game will make for some stressful times for Tiger fans at the end of games.
One thing worth watching in that bullpen is their current state of stress. Doolittle, Cook and Balfour all pitched four days in a row (Cook and Balfour five actually) in order to win the division for the elephants. The title was worth it, if only for that extra day of rest, but that’s a lot of days in a row. Didn’t seem to bother the trio in terms of velocity — all three of them even added velocity late in the season. Check out Balfour’s rise to excellence:
A lot of words have been spent talking about Oakland’s rookie starters, and for good reason. On the other hand, it’s the bullpen that’s the best pitching strength for this team.
Offense
The Tigers mash. Oakland? They just two-true-outcome you. Right?
Here are the things that Oakland did more of this year, on offense:
* Hit more home runs (195 to 163)
* Coaxed more walks (550 to 511)
* Stole more bases (122 to 59)
* Showed a better ISO (.166 to .154)
Of course, the Tigers did have a better wRC+ (104 to 98) and did hit more doubles (279 to 267) and also all-importantly scored more runs (726 to 713), so their offense was better this year. But that might have been a whole lot better than you expected.
The Tigers are top-heavy in the lineup, just as they are in their pitching staff. Your meat and bones is Austin Jackson (132 wRC+) — courtesy a mini breakout — at the top, Prince Fielder (152) and Miguel Cabrera (166) in the middle. The only other above-average hitters on the team are Alex Avila (104) and Andy Dirks (131). The Tigers lineup had 49.2 batting runs over replacement and Cabrera had 55.7 of them. The Athletics lineup put up 3.2 batting runs over replacement and Yoenis Cespedes led the team with 25.5 runs.
Oakland has eight above-average hitters: Brandon Moss (158), Jonny Gomes (142), Yoenis Cespedes (138), Chris Carter (136), Coco Crisp (116), Josh Reddick (109), Seth Smith (105) and George Kottaras (104). Once again, Oakland has some depth to balance out the Tiger’s excellence. You’ll notice that some of these guys man the same position, though, and that some of this depth is thanks to the platoon. Matt Klaasen already did such an excellent job pointing out the value Oakland has gotten from the platoon, but it is worth pointing out that platoons have a weak point: end-game strategy. Once you switch from one to the other, you can’t go back. This also means that Phil Coke and Drew Smyly as lefties they can use to try and match up the matchup masters and empty the Oakland bench.
Defense
This is where Oakland has a definite edge. All of the defensive metrics love the Athletics — UZR/150 (+4.6, and second in the AL to -5.7 and second-to-last in the AL), DRS (+14 to -20) and BABIP allowed (.279 to .307) — and for good reason. Look around that field, and the eye test agrees that the A’s can pick it.
But again this is a work in progress — the A’s have been better since they moved to their most recent defensive alignment. The Oakland infield had a -6 plus/minus according DRS as a unit until August 21. Then Stephen Drew came to town and moved Cliff Pennington to second base. That new unit has had a +7 DRS since, and the former shortstop looks excellent at second base (+7 DRS at the position since the trade). It’s a little strange, considering that DRS has Drew as a -7 shortstop this year, and it could be a sample thing, but it does look like their best arrangement right now.
And they did something similar in the outfield. Yoenis Cespedes doesn’t look great as a center fielder, and since Coco Crisp has been back, he’s ceded the position. DRS agrees — the Cuban is a -8 CF by the metric, and a +1 LF, while Crisp is a scratch center fielder. With Crisp and Cespedes healthy and in the right position, this defensive group is looking good.
That’s not to say that the Tigers haven’t figured a few things out along the way. From 2005-2008, Jhonny Peralta had -19 DRS at SS. On balls to his right, he was +10; on balls at him, he was -11; at balls to his left, he was -35. From 2009-2012, Peralta has had +6 DRS at SS. On balls to his right, Peralta was -16; on balls at him, he was +19; at balls to his left, he was +20. Looks like Peralta likely changed his default positioning between 2008 and 2009. Since then he’s been hurt on balls to the right, but helped on balls to the left. The net has been a big positive, and his recent improvements are almost all due to his range numbers. No matter what, Peralta still has Miguel Cabrera — and his -8 Runs Saved Plus/Minus (Range) component of DRS — not helping him out this year, and has performed admirably anyway.
Still, the advantage with the glove pretty clearly goes to the Athletics.
With depth on their side, the Athletics will try to take shorten the game in order to take advantage of their superior defense and bullpen. They’ll root for close games and matchups that could go either way on a dime — it’s otherwise closer than some might think.
I’ll be chatting during the game. Join me!
This is great work.
Good summary – these are hard to do with detail without writing 10,000 words, but this was pretty succinct and still comprehensive
Nice preview, but I’m disappointed there were no staff playoff predictions this year.
why?
Darin Downs and Duane Below are not on the playoff roster.
This is an awesome preview. Although I am an avid fangraphs reader the sheer quantity the site publishes means that some articles are filler. This is the kind of piece I look for at the beginning of a playoff series to orient me towards two teams that I don’t watch every day. Thanx Eno!
I am a huge Nats fan, but it is hard not to root for the Orioles and As.
Nice write-up. Depth doesn’t matter as much in a 5 game series, does it? The match-up seems to favor the Tigers as well, since their weakness on defense is really in the infield and the A’s hitters mostly strike out and hit fly balls. Further, the Tiger pitchers is a strikeout and fly ball staff. Tigers had glaring holes in RF and DH, but Young is good vs lefties and the A’s throw Anderson and Milone, and the Berry/Avisail platoon has been fairly decent. For the A’s to win it would seem they’ll have to hit homers, beat the Tiger pen and win the non-Verlander starts. Detroit has to be the clear favorite
So, hows this preview look so far? Sorta surprising that nothing was said about Doug Fister, even though he’s been realtively dominating throughout the second half, and really, the Tigers Front 4 has numbers clearly better than the 4 guys Oakland was sending out there. And Sanchez has also been very good through the last two starts of August and all of September. (What he found who knows.)
Sanchez found control of his breaking ball.
Oakland had eight above-average hitters and put up 3.2 runs over replacement?
Jhonny Peralta has improved defensively? You talk about the eye test with the A’s defense – have you seen Peralta play this season? He’s a statue who can’t turn a double play.
Duane Below is not only not on Detroit’s playoff roster, he hasn’t even been in the majors since mid-August. Downs isn’t on the roster, either.
I think you’ll have to read that Peralta bit closer. I don’t think he’s improved, i think the Tigers have figured out how to position him better.
And yeah, that’s what happens with platoons. It’s not above-average production at eight positions or anything.
I fixed the lefties.
I think Peralta has improved his range since coming from Cleveland…..from horrible to below average. But couple that with not making any errors and you get his grade of 0. He certainly makes more plays going left, I always figured it was because he could make the shorter throw but you could be correct with positioning, I never thought about that. I do know if you want to BABIP the Tigers to death just hit a ground ball between him and Cabrera; Miggy has to be graded as terrible going to his left and better to his right or at balls at him.
Also, the team batting stats should be runs above average, correct?
Very surprised a comprehensive article like this fails to mention D.Fister & A.Sanchez! They have been incredible over the past 5-6 weeks….borderline dominant!
I really like Fangraphs and most of the writers here. You all do a terrific job of describing details the mainstream media miss. Unfortunately, sometimes the raw data and season-long stats really miss things too. This article shows exactly what can be wrong when only looking at raw, season-long data.
Fister has gone 7+ and allowed 1 ER or less in 7 of his last 15 starts. He has incredible command and movement on his pitches right now.
A.Sanchez has only allowed 13 ER over his last 8 starts combined. He has looked filthy! He’s only allowed 7 walks over those 8 starts as well.
The Tigers story for this potential playoff run is really their #1-#4 SP’s. They have been incredible for the past month and a half. This article not mentioning that is a glaring hole.
I’m a fantasy wonk. Well aware of Fister and Sanchez and their work over the last month. As I’m aware of how great A.J. Griffin and the rookie A’s starters have been. I didn’t want to write 10,000 words as someone here put it, and I actually feel like Sanchez/Fister v the A’s non-Parker SPs is kind of a push, especially in Oakland. Milone v Fister did nothing to change my mind on that.
Maybe the biggest difference in the Tigers lineup from the beginning to end of the season is the improvement in defense. Despite a couple high-profile throwing errors, Infante has filled in most excellent at 2B, replacing poor defense by Raburn/Santiago. Young is now full-time DH, and Boesch is off the roster, meaning Berry/Dirks/Garcia/Kelly(!) will be manning the corner OFs, another huge improvement even if the replacements are merely close to average.
What that all means is the defense they’ve thrown out there the first 2 games has actually been scored as a tick above average over the season. Maybe that’s sample size, as my eyes tell me the OF defense should easily be above average, while the defense is clearly below, but so far I only recall 2 poor plays, Cabby’s throw to Fielder (who has too short to a wingspan) and the SB/SB/WP.
Eno; it was a really good article. I just thought the analysis on Detroit’s rotation was off. The main statement regarding their rotation was:
“Of course, much of Detroit’s strength lies at the top of their rotation.”
I feel it’s a really hot #1-#4 right now on the mound for Detroit. Most Tiger fans will tell you they feel very comfortable with Fister & Sanchez for this playoff run, probably even more so than Scherzer after his recent arm issues.
My personal opinion is that the depth of their rotation(1-4) is what gives them a great shot at the World Series this year, as opposed to past playoff appearances.
I stand by my assessment that SP’s #1-#4 in Detroit’s rotation being the reason they have a great shot at the World Series. Their late season dominance has continued in the postseason. While Scherzer is limited slightly w/ his shoulder ailment, the other three have no problem getting to the 7th/8th inning to avoid too many innings for their pen.