- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

Odds for 2012 World Series, Converted to Projections

Bodog has published their early odds for the winner of the 2012 World Series. I’ve included the odds for each of the 30 MLB teams below. I’ve also included the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the total break-even percentage for all 30 teams to 100%.

Numbers after the jump. Note: I’ve assumed, as I believe is custom, that the bettor gets his original stake back in a winning bet. So if the odds are 4/1 — as they are for Philadelphia — the bettor receives $5 in return for a winning $1 bet, making the break-even point only 20%.

Team			Odds	BE	Proj%
Philadelphia Phillies	4/1	20.0%	14.2%
New York Yankees	13/2	13.3%	9.5%
Boston Red Sox		8/1	11.1%	7.9%
Texas Rangers		12/1	7.7%	5.5%
Detroit Tigers		14/1	6.7%	4.7%
St. Louis Cardinals	14/1	6.7%	4.7%
San Francisco Giants	16/1	5.9%	4.2%
Tampa Bay Rays		18/1	5.3%	3.7%
Atlanta Braves		18/1	5.3%	3.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks	20/1	4.8%	3.4%
Milwaukee Brewers	22/1	4.3%	3.1%
Chicago Cubs		25/1	3.8%	2.7%
Cincinnati Reds		25/1	3.8%	2.7%
Colorado Rockies	25/1	3.8%	2.7%
Los Angeles Angels	25/1	3.8%	2.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers	30/1	3.2%	2.3%
Florida Marlins		30/1	3.2%	2.3%
Chicago White Sox	30/1	3.2%	2.3%
Washington Nationals	30/1	3.2%	2.3%
Oakland Athletics	35/1	2.8%	2.0%
Toronto Blue Jays	35/1	2.8%	2.0%
Minnesota Twins		35/1	2.8%	2.0%
New York Mets		35/1	2.8%	2.0%
Cleveland Indians	50/1	2.0%	1.4%
Seattle Mariners	60/1	1.6%	1.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates	60/1	1.6%	1.2%
San Diego Padres	75/1	1.3%	0.9%
Baltimore Orioles	75/1	1.3%	0.9%
Kansas City Royals	75/1	1.3%	0.9%
Houston Astros		100/1	1.0%	0.7%

First Impressions:
• The Dodgers’ odds look inflated. Given that the chance of winning the Series is about 12.5% once a team makes the postseason, a 2.3% chance of winning the Series suggests they have close to a 20% of making the playoffs. That’s pretty high for a team that underwhelmed in 2011 and appears ready to give Juan Rivera ca. $4 million.
• The Angels’s projected odds, meanwhile, appear to underrate the team, which hovered near the top of the AL West well into September.
• The Royals and Indians are probably also underrated by this measure. Both teams are decently situated — the former because of its breadth of young talent, the latter for its starting pitching — to make a run at the AL Central title. Likewise, their divisional cohorts, the Tigers, are probably overvalued.